Hello, dairy enthusiasts, and welcome to another
episode of the Bullvine Podcast. I'm your host,
Bella, and I'm joined as always by my co -host,
the data guru himself, Douglas. Today, we're
diving into something that's absolutely transformed
the Holstein breeding world over the past 16
years. That's right, Bella. We've been analyzing
Holstein Canada registration data from 2008 to
2024, and the transformation we've discovered
is nothing short of revolutionary. We're calling
this episode The Great Holstein Shake -Up, How
16 Years Rewrote Breeding Rules. I think many
of our listeners who've been in the Holstein
breeding industry for a while have lived through
this significant rewriting of the breeding rulebook,
whether they realized it or not. Today we'll
break down exactly how we went from a focus on
high confirmation, or a 2 lactation in culled
cow, to a 4 plus lactation, healthy, fertile,
self -sufficient, high fat yielding cow. We'll
cover the death of the super sire model, the
shift from pretty cows to profitable ones, the
impact of genomics, the emergence of new selection
traits, and what all this means for the future
of Holstein breeding. So let's jump right in.
Let's start by talking about genetic diversity,
or rather the lack of it in the past. Remember
back in 2008, Bella? If you walked into any barn
in Canada, practically every seventh heifer was
sired by one of just three bulls, Dorman, Goldwyn,
or Buckeye. Every seventh cow? That can't be
right. That would mean... The numbers don't lie.
These three bulls alone accounted for nearly
12 % of all registered females. Dorman alone
had 12 ,165 daughters registered in 2008. To
put that in perspective for our listeners, that's
enough to fill about 120 average dairy barns
back then. I remember those days well. Everyone
wanted those same top bulls, and if you didn't
use them, people almost looked at you funny.
But fast forward to today, and that concentration
has completely collapsed. Now you'd need to see
almost 22 calves before finding one from a top
three sire. That's not just a small shift. It's
a major rejection of how we used to think about
breeding. Why do you think that change happened,
Douglas? Was it just that breeders got smarter
about inbreeding? Or was something else driving
this? Multiple factors were at play. Certainly
breeders became more aware of the risks of genetic
concentration. But I think it's also linked to
the next big shift we saw, moving from selecting
purely for show ring traits to focusing on profitability
and function. This is the part that fascinates
me. Remember when everyone was chasing those
gorgeous, deep -ribbed show cows regardless of
what they cost to maintain? Those days are gone,
my friend. And those show cows were often less
fertile and less robust, too. Exactly. The Holstein
world has completely flipped from worshipping
pretty cows to demanding farm -level profitable
ones. I've seen this firsthand visiting farms
across the country. Early on, like from 2008
to 2012, we were all obsessed with proven confirmation
sires. Looking at the top bulls from that era,
they were selected almost entirely for how their
daughters looked. Today, the smart money is on
bulls that deliver a complete package. Health,
production, fertility. and decent confirmation.
You know what nobody talks about enough, Douglas?
Despite all our sophisticated genetic tools and
16 years of so -called improvement, total Holstein
registrations haven't actually increased. Makes
you wonder if we've been spinning our wheels,
doesn't it? It's an interesting observation.
I think what we're seeing is not necessarily
growth in numbers, but a transformation in quality
and efficiency. Take West Coast alcove, for example.
The fact that this bull has shown up in recent
time periods tells me breeders are still hunting
for that perfect balance between genetic progress
and sustainability. Speaking of genetic progress,
let's talk about the elephant in the room. Genomics.
Game changer or overhyped? When genomics hit
the scene in 2009, it didn't just change how
we select bulls. It completely rewrote who benefits
from genetic advancement. Gone are the days when
only the biggest operations with deep pockets
could access elite genetics. It's been a true
democratization of genetics, hasn't it? With
over 6 .5 million Canadian dairy animals genetically
evaluated now, virtually all dairy farmers have
access to top 100 total merit index sires that
have no holes and will produce tomorrow's complete
cow. But let's be real for a second. Are we actually
selecting for the right traits? The dramatic
shifts in sire usage patterns suggest many breeders
weren't entirely sold on those early genomic
promises. What do you mean? Well, studies show
genetic correlation coefficients of just 0 .36
for milk yield, 0 .29 for fat yield, and 0 .19
for overall type with longevity. Not exactly
sure bets, are they? So you're saying genomic
predictions aren't perfectly correlated with
actual performance? Correct. But the most mind
-blowing impact of genomics has been on generation
intervals. Let me share some numbers with you.
In 1980, it took over 10 years, specifically
10 .4 years, for genetic improvement to move
from one bull generation to the next on the sire
-to -bull path. And now? Now it happens in just
2 .5 years. That's a 76 % reduction. The same
pattern holds across all selection paths, dam
to bull, sire to cow, and dam to cow. Overall,
the total generation interval has dropped from
32 years to just 13 .2 years. That's like going
from sending letters by Pony Express to instant
messaging. No wonder we're seeing such dramatic
shifts in sire usage. We're cycling through and
benefiting from genetic options at warp speed.
And we need to be prepared for what's coming.
With a major genetic base change coming April
1st, 2025, PTAs for USA Holsteins are about to
drop by roughly 750 pounds for milk, 45 pounds
for fat, 30 pounds for protein, and 0 .6 for
PTAT. That's going to shake things up. This leads
us perfectly into our next topic, the new traits
taking over. Douglas, I've noticed breeders talking
a lot more about novel traits recently. This
isn't just trendy chatter. It's a necessary evolution
to survive in tomorrow's industry, isn't it?
Absolutely. Between 2016 and 2024, we've seen
a huge surge in interest for polled genetics,
A2A2 milk, milk solids yield, and health and
reproduction -related traits that directly impact
a farm's bottom line. Ignore these trends at
your peril, listeners. The upcoming Net Merit
Index revisions will put even more emphasis on
butterfat yield, feed conversion efficiency,
and cow livability. Let me share the numbers.
In the current Net Merit Index, protein accounts
for 19 .6 % of emphasis. In the April 2025 revision,
that drops to just 13%. Meanwhile, fat emphasis
increases from 28 .6%. to 31 .8%. That's huge
for farmers deciding where to put their selection
pressure. What's really striking is the increase
in feed saved, going from 12 % to 17 .8%. This
reflects the industry's growing focus on efficiency
and sustainability. Let's talk fertility, Douglas.
Want to see why fertility traits suddenly matter
so much? Take a look at these real -world numbers.
The mean sire cow conception rate is just 0 .43.
That means the average Holstein needs multiple
services to conceive. And the 56 -day non -return
index is only 0 .50, telling us that too many
cows are being bred to below -average sires and
need to be re -bred within two months. No wonder
fertility has become such a hot selection priority.
These numbers directly hit the pocketbook. Every
time you have to rebreed a cow, that's another
straw of semen, more labor costs, and an extended
calving interval affecting your bottom line.
The good news is that genetic selection is actually
working. As Butler and others have shown, sire
genetic merit for daughter fertility traits is
improving rapidly in the dairy breeds, including
the Holstein. Thanks to Genomics. we're fixing
fertility problems much faster than they initially
declined when the priority traits in selection
were milk yield and type. That's something to
celebrate over our morning coffees. I think the
most fascinating change we're seeing is the complete
rebalancing of genetic influence across the Holstein
population. Back in 2008, the top 30 sires used
in Canada accounted for about 35 % of all female
registrations. By 2016, that dropped to just
22%. And the trend has continued. So it's not
just the top three bulls showing less dominance,
but the entire top tier of bulls having less
market concentration. Exactly. This isn't just
a random statistic. It represents a fundamental
power shift in the dairy genetics world. For
decades, we rushed to use the best bulls, which
narrowed genetic diversity and cranked up inbreeding
rates. Finally, breeders are pushing back against
that dangerous trend. I've noticed more European
bulls in AI catalogs lately. That's no accident,
is it? Not at all. While Canadian and American
genetics dominated the early years in our analysis,
we're now seeing significant international representation.
This global genetic exchange introduces fresh
bloodlines that will help fight inbreeding while
still delivering solid performance. Why have
some traits been harder to improve than others?
I know fertility has been a struggle. It comes
down to heritability. Let me explain with some
numbers. Lactation yield has a heritability estimate
of 0 .46, while days open is just 0 .09. Higher
heritability traits respond more readily to selection
pressure. So that's why production traits improved
quickly while fertility lagged behind. What really
excites me is how selection based on genomics
has rescued traits that were heading in the wrong
direction. Research clearly shows that genetic
trends changed from negative or close to zero
to positive for traditionally difficult to evaluate
traits like milking cow conception rate, productive
life, and somatic cell score. We're not just
making small improvements, we're correcting the
whole course of the breed. So Douglas, Based
on everything we've discussed, where do you see
Holstein breeding strategies heading in the future?
Based on the data from these 16 years, I'd bet
my farm on several major shifts. First, we'll
keep pivoting hard toward functional health and
efficiency traits. The days of selecting primarily
for production and type are over. Sorry, not
sorry. Modern breeding programs need to balance
these traditional traits with newer priorities
that impact sustainability and profitability.
Second, A2A2 milk genetics will soon be the standard,
not a specialty. The trend is clear in our data,
and industry forecasts agree, predicting increased
fat and protein yields, increased percent fat,
and a prevalence of A2A2 in the coming decade.
And tetherless. I'm already seeing this at the
farm level. More and more producers are asking
specifically about A2A2 status when making breeding
decisions. Third, new data and information resulting
from new technologies and methodologies will
continue to help drive the acceleration in genetic
progress while addressing genetic diversity concerns.
With 90 % of Holstein registrations submitted
electronically, our industry will have the infrastructure
for sophisticated genetic management. And finally,
This might ruffle some feathers. Animal welfare
traits like polled and healthy hoof genetics
will increasingly drive selection decisions.
Consumers care more about this stuff every year.
Absolutely. Genetics that address welfare concerns
will command market premiums paid by processors.
Smart breeders are already positioning themselves
for this shift. What an incredible journey we've
traced today. Over 16 years, Holstein breeding
philosophy has changed dramatically. We've collectively
rejected the super sire model in favor of genetic
diversification, completely transformed how we
manage genetic resources and risk, and broadened
our genetic focus beyond milk and type. Canadian
and American Holstein breeders have shown incredible
adaptability through all this change. They've
navigated the transition from traditional progeny
testing to genomic selection. while simultaneously
embracing a more comprehensive view of what makes
a profitable cow. The data doesn't lie. Breeders
are using genetic information more strategically
than ever before. The winners in tomorrow's dairy
industry won't be those blindly chasing the highest
numbers, but those who skillfully balance genetics,
economics, and consumer demands. With genomic
selection slashing generation intervals, from
10 .4 years to just 2 .5 years on the sire -to
-bull path, genetic improvement will only accelerate
from here. The real question isn't whether your
breeding program will transform, but whether
you'll lead or participate in that transformation
or be left to play catch -up or exit the industry.
That's all for today's episode of the Bullvine
Podcast. We'd love to hear your thoughts on these
dramatic shifts in Holstein breeding. Are you
ready for what comes next? Let us know in the
comments or on our website at thebullvine .com.
And if you enjoyed today's episode, please subscribe,
leave a review, and share with other dairy enthusiasts.
Until next time, I'm Douglas. And I'm Bella,
reminding you to keep breeding for tomorrow's
perfect cow.