WEBVTT 00:00:10.569 --> 00:00:13.630 Hello, dairy enthusiasts, and welcome to another 00:00:13.630 --> 00:00:16.750 episode of the Bullvine Podcast. I'm your host, 00:00:16.870 --> 00:00:19.269 Bella, and I'm joined as always by my co -host, 00:00:19.429 --> 00:00:22.750 the data guru himself, Douglas. Today, we're 00:00:22.750 --> 00:00:25.050 diving into something that's absolutely transformed 00:00:25.050 --> 00:00:28.170 the Holstein breeding world over the past 16 00:00:28.170 --> 00:00:31.440 years. That's right, Bella. We've been analyzing 00:00:31.440 --> 00:00:35.259 Holstein Canada registration data from 2008 to 00:00:35.259 --> 00:00:39.179 2024, and the transformation we've discovered 00:00:39.179 --> 00:00:42.259 is nothing short of revolutionary. We're calling 00:00:42.259 --> 00:00:45.200 this episode The Great Holstein Shake -Up, How 00:00:45.200 --> 00:00:49.420 16 Years Rewrote Breeding Rules. I think many 00:00:49.420 --> 00:00:51.380 of our listeners who've been in the Holstein 00:00:51.380 --> 00:00:54.039 breeding industry for a while have lived through 00:00:54.039 --> 00:00:56.799 this significant rewriting of the breeding rulebook, 00:00:56.939 --> 00:01:00.280 whether they realized it or not. Today we'll 00:01:00.280 --> 00:01:02.740 break down exactly how we went from a focus on 00:01:02.740 --> 00:01:05.700 high confirmation, or a 2 lactation in culled 00:01:05.700 --> 00:01:09.540 cow, to a 4 plus lactation, healthy, fertile, 00:01:09.780 --> 00:01:13.219 self -sufficient, high fat yielding cow. We'll 00:01:13.219 --> 00:01:15.640 cover the death of the super sire model, the 00:01:15.640 --> 00:01:18.900 shift from pretty cows to profitable ones, the 00:01:18.900 --> 00:01:21.719 impact of genomics, the emergence of new selection 00:01:21.719 --> 00:01:24.359 traits, and what all this means for the future 00:01:24.359 --> 00:01:27.299 of Holstein breeding. So let's jump right in. 00:01:28.899 --> 00:01:31.239 Let's start by talking about genetic diversity, 00:01:31.459 --> 00:01:34.719 or rather the lack of it in the past. Remember 00:01:34.719 --> 00:01:38.280 back in 2008, Bella? If you walked into any barn 00:01:38.280 --> 00:01:40.920 in Canada, practically every seventh heifer was 00:01:40.920 --> 00:01:44.060 sired by one of just three bulls, Dorman, Goldwyn, 00:01:44.159 --> 00:01:47.780 or Buckeye. Every seventh cow? That can't be 00:01:47.780 --> 00:01:50.400 right. That would mean... The numbers don't lie. 00:01:50.879 --> 00:01:53.219 These three bulls alone accounted for nearly 00:01:53.219 --> 00:01:57.329 12 % of all registered females. Dorman alone 00:01:57.329 --> 00:02:02.230 had 12 ,165 daughters registered in 2008. To 00:02:02.230 --> 00:02:05.409 put that in perspective for our listeners, that's 00:02:05.409 --> 00:02:09.050 enough to fill about 120 average dairy barns 00:02:09.050 --> 00:02:13.069 back then. I remember those days well. Everyone 00:02:13.069 --> 00:02:15.870 wanted those same top bulls, and if you didn't 00:02:15.870 --> 00:02:17.870 use them, people almost looked at you funny. 00:02:18.469 --> 00:02:21.469 But fast forward to today, and that concentration 00:02:21.469 --> 00:02:24.930 has completely collapsed. Now you'd need to see 00:02:24.930 --> 00:02:27.969 almost 22 calves before finding one from a top 00:02:27.969 --> 00:02:32.189 three sire. That's not just a small shift. It's 00:02:32.189 --> 00:02:34.250 a major rejection of how we used to think about 00:02:34.250 --> 00:02:37.830 breeding. Why do you think that change happened, 00:02:37.949 --> 00:02:40.590 Douglas? Was it just that breeders got smarter 00:02:40.590 --> 00:02:43.150 about inbreeding? Or was something else driving 00:02:43.150 --> 00:02:47.110 this? Multiple factors were at play. Certainly 00:02:47.110 --> 00:02:49.750 breeders became more aware of the risks of genetic 00:02:49.750 --> 00:02:52.800 concentration. But I think it's also linked to 00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:55.659 the next big shift we saw, moving from selecting 00:02:55.659 --> 00:02:58.860 purely for show ring traits to focusing on profitability 00:02:58.860 --> 00:03:02.539 and function. This is the part that fascinates 00:03:02.539 --> 00:03:05.819 me. Remember when everyone was chasing those 00:03:05.819 --> 00:03:08.580 gorgeous, deep -ribbed show cows regardless of 00:03:08.580 --> 00:03:11.840 what they cost to maintain? Those days are gone, 00:03:11.919 --> 00:03:14.879 my friend. And those show cows were often less 00:03:14.879 --> 00:03:19.460 fertile and less robust, too. Exactly. The Holstein 00:03:19.460 --> 00:03:21.759 world has completely flipped from worshipping 00:03:21.759 --> 00:03:24.240 pretty cows to demanding farm -level profitable 00:03:24.240 --> 00:03:27.699 ones. I've seen this firsthand visiting farms 00:03:27.699 --> 00:03:30.979 across the country. Early on, like from 2008 00:03:30.979 --> 00:03:34.699 to 2012, we were all obsessed with proven confirmation 00:03:34.699 --> 00:03:38.219 sires. Looking at the top bulls from that era, 00:03:38.340 --> 00:03:40.740 they were selected almost entirely for how their 00:03:40.740 --> 00:03:43.259 daughters looked. Today, the smart money is on 00:03:43.259 --> 00:03:46.080 bulls that deliver a complete package. Health, 00:03:46.219 --> 00:03:49.389 production, fertility. and decent confirmation. 00:03:50.430 --> 00:03:52.689 You know what nobody talks about enough, Douglas? 00:03:53.310 --> 00:03:56.810 Despite all our sophisticated genetic tools and 00:03:56.810 --> 00:04:00.870 16 years of so -called improvement, total Holstein 00:04:00.870 --> 00:04:04.509 registrations haven't actually increased. Makes 00:04:04.509 --> 00:04:06.229 you wonder if we've been spinning our wheels, 00:04:06.349 --> 00:04:08.789 doesn't it? It's an interesting observation. 00:04:09.610 --> 00:04:11.830 I think what we're seeing is not necessarily 00:04:11.830 --> 00:04:14.889 growth in numbers, but a transformation in quality 00:04:14.889 --> 00:04:18.430 and efficiency. Take West Coast alcove, for example. 00:04:18.709 --> 00:04:21.129 The fact that this bull has shown up in recent 00:04:21.129 --> 00:04:23.769 time periods tells me breeders are still hunting 00:04:23.769 --> 00:04:26.069 for that perfect balance between genetic progress 00:04:26.069 --> 00:04:29.310 and sustainability. Speaking of genetic progress, 00:04:29.610 --> 00:04:32.230 let's talk about the elephant in the room. Genomics. 00:04:32.569 --> 00:04:36.709 Game changer or overhyped? When genomics hit 00:04:36.709 --> 00:04:39.470 the scene in 2009, it didn't just change how 00:04:39.470 --> 00:04:42.550 we select bulls. It completely rewrote who benefits 00:04:42.550 --> 00:04:45.579 from genetic advancement. Gone are the days when 00:04:45.579 --> 00:04:47.660 only the biggest operations with deep pockets 00:04:47.660 --> 00:04:52.000 could access elite genetics. It's been a true 00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:54.980 democratization of genetics, hasn't it? With 00:04:54.980 --> 00:04:58.699 over 6 .5 million Canadian dairy animals genetically 00:04:58.699 --> 00:05:02.279 evaluated now, virtually all dairy farmers have 00:05:02.279 --> 00:05:05.720 access to top 100 total merit index sires that 00:05:05.720 --> 00:05:08.699 have no holes and will produce tomorrow's complete 00:05:08.699 --> 00:05:12.250 cow. But let's be real for a second. Are we actually 00:05:12.250 --> 00:05:15.310 selecting for the right traits? The dramatic 00:05:15.310 --> 00:05:18.269 shifts in sire usage patterns suggest many breeders 00:05:18.269 --> 00:05:20.670 weren't entirely sold on those early genomic 00:05:20.670 --> 00:05:25.529 promises. What do you mean? Well, studies show 00:05:25.529 --> 00:05:28.470 genetic correlation coefficients of just 0 .36 00:05:28.470 --> 00:05:33.209 for milk yield, 0 .29 for fat yield, and 0 .19 00:05:33.209 --> 00:05:36.529 for overall type with longevity. Not exactly 00:05:36.529 --> 00:05:40.100 sure bets, are they? So you're saying genomic 00:05:40.100 --> 00:05:42.639 predictions aren't perfectly correlated with 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:47.240 actual performance? Correct. But the most mind 00:05:47.240 --> 00:05:49.860 -blowing impact of genomics has been on generation 00:05:49.860 --> 00:05:52.779 intervals. Let me share some numbers with you. 00:05:52.959 --> 00:05:56.579 In 1980, it took over 10 years, specifically 00:05:56.579 --> 00:05:59.879 10 .4 years, for genetic improvement to move 00:05:59.879 --> 00:06:02.740 from one bull generation to the next on the sire 00:06:02.740 --> 00:06:06.540 -to -bull path. And now? Now it happens in just 00:06:06.540 --> 00:06:11.199 2 .5 years. That's a 76 % reduction. The same 00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:14.019 pattern holds across all selection paths, dam 00:06:14.019 --> 00:06:18.019 to bull, sire to cow, and dam to cow. Overall, 00:06:18.279 --> 00:06:20.600 the total generation interval has dropped from 00:06:20.600 --> 00:06:24.379 32 years to just 13 .2 years. That's like going 00:06:24.379 --> 00:06:27.420 from sending letters by Pony Express to instant 00:06:27.420 --> 00:06:30.480 messaging. No wonder we're seeing such dramatic 00:06:30.480 --> 00:06:34.079 shifts in sire usage. We're cycling through and 00:06:34.079 --> 00:06:36.579 benefiting from genetic options at warp speed. 00:06:37.259 --> 00:06:39.279 And we need to be prepared for what's coming. 00:06:39.839 --> 00:06:42.319 With a major genetic base change coming April 00:06:42.319 --> 00:06:47.199 1st, 2025, PTAs for USA Holsteins are about to 00:06:47.199 --> 00:06:51.540 drop by roughly 750 pounds for milk, 45 pounds 00:06:51.540 --> 00:06:55.680 for fat, 30 pounds for protein, and 0 .6 for 00:06:55.680 --> 00:06:59.120 PTAT. That's going to shake things up. This leads 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:02.199 us perfectly into our next topic, the new traits 00:07:02.199 --> 00:07:05.300 taking over. Douglas, I've noticed breeders talking 00:07:05.300 --> 00:07:07.899 a lot more about novel traits recently. This 00:07:07.899 --> 00:07:10.980 isn't just trendy chatter. It's a necessary evolution 00:07:10.980 --> 00:07:13.519 to survive in tomorrow's industry, isn't it? 00:07:14.339 --> 00:07:19.220 Absolutely. Between 2016 and 2024, we've seen 00:07:19.220 --> 00:07:21.519 a huge surge in interest for polled genetics, 00:07:22.000 --> 00:07:25.720 A2A2 milk, milk solids yield, and health and 00:07:25.720 --> 00:07:28.560 reproduction -related traits that directly impact 00:07:28.560 --> 00:07:32.040 a farm's bottom line. Ignore these trends at 00:07:32.040 --> 00:07:35.459 your peril, listeners. The upcoming Net Merit 00:07:35.459 --> 00:07:38.379 Index revisions will put even more emphasis on 00:07:38.379 --> 00:07:40.959 butterfat yield, feed conversion efficiency, 00:07:41.339 --> 00:07:43.660 and cow livability. Let me share the numbers. 00:07:44.319 --> 00:07:47.459 In the current Net Merit Index, protein accounts 00:07:47.459 --> 00:07:52.600 for 19 .6 % of emphasis. In the April 2025 revision, 00:07:52.819 --> 00:07:56.759 that drops to just 13%. Meanwhile, fat emphasis 00:07:56.759 --> 00:08:02.660 increases from 28 .6%. to 31 .8%. That's huge 00:08:02.660 --> 00:08:05.319 for farmers deciding where to put their selection 00:08:05.319 --> 00:08:08.860 pressure. What's really striking is the increase 00:08:08.860 --> 00:08:13.860 in feed saved, going from 12 % to 17 .8%. This 00:08:13.860 --> 00:08:16.560 reflects the industry's growing focus on efficiency 00:08:16.560 --> 00:08:20.199 and sustainability. Let's talk fertility, Douglas. 00:08:20.620 --> 00:08:23.399 Want to see why fertility traits suddenly matter 00:08:23.399 --> 00:08:26.399 so much? Take a look at these real -world numbers. 00:08:26.990 --> 00:08:30.689 The mean sire cow conception rate is just 0 .43. 00:08:31.110 --> 00:08:33.549 That means the average Holstein needs multiple 00:08:33.549 --> 00:08:37.210 services to conceive. And the 56 -day non -return 00:08:37.210 --> 00:08:41.129 index is only 0 .50, telling us that too many 00:08:41.129 --> 00:08:43.690 cows are being bred to below -average sires and 00:08:43.690 --> 00:08:46.970 need to be re -bred within two months. No wonder 00:08:46.970 --> 00:08:49.549 fertility has become such a hot selection priority. 00:08:50.070 --> 00:08:53.639 These numbers directly hit the pocketbook. Every 00:08:53.639 --> 00:08:55.980 time you have to rebreed a cow, that's another 00:08:55.980 --> 00:08:59.419 straw of semen, more labor costs, and an extended 00:08:59.419 --> 00:09:01.580 calving interval affecting your bottom line. 00:09:02.419 --> 00:09:05.039 The good news is that genetic selection is actually 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:08.820 working. As Butler and others have shown, sire 00:09:08.820 --> 00:09:11.240 genetic merit for daughter fertility traits is 00:09:11.240 --> 00:09:13.539 improving rapidly in the dairy breeds, including 00:09:13.539 --> 00:09:17.899 the Holstein. Thanks to Genomics. we're fixing 00:09:17.899 --> 00:09:20.580 fertility problems much faster than they initially 00:09:20.580 --> 00:09:22.960 declined when the priority traits in selection 00:09:22.960 --> 00:09:26.039 were milk yield and type. That's something to 00:09:26.039 --> 00:09:30.039 celebrate over our morning coffees. I think the 00:09:30.039 --> 00:09:32.659 most fascinating change we're seeing is the complete 00:09:32.659 --> 00:09:35.860 rebalancing of genetic influence across the Holstein 00:09:35.860 --> 00:09:41.080 population. Back in 2008, the top 30 sires used 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:44.600 in Canada accounted for about 35 % of all female 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:48.889 registrations. By 2016, that dropped to just 00:09:48.889 --> 00:09:53.070 22%. And the trend has continued. So it's not 00:09:53.070 --> 00:09:55.710 just the top three bulls showing less dominance, 00:09:55.950 --> 00:09:58.950 but the entire top tier of bulls having less 00:09:58.950 --> 00:10:02.450 market concentration. Exactly. This isn't just 00:10:02.450 --> 00:10:05.110 a random statistic. It represents a fundamental 00:10:05.110 --> 00:10:08.149 power shift in the dairy genetics world. For 00:10:08.149 --> 00:10:10.509 decades, we rushed to use the best bulls, which 00:10:10.509 --> 00:10:12.889 narrowed genetic diversity and cranked up inbreeding 00:10:12.889 --> 00:10:16.139 rates. Finally, breeders are pushing back against 00:10:16.139 --> 00:10:19.279 that dangerous trend. I've noticed more European 00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:22.659 bulls in AI catalogs lately. That's no accident, 00:10:22.740 --> 00:10:26.779 is it? Not at all. While Canadian and American 00:10:26.779 --> 00:10:29.379 genetics dominated the early years in our analysis, 00:10:29.720 --> 00:10:33.259 we're now seeing significant international representation. 00:10:34.299 --> 00:10:37.259 This global genetic exchange introduces fresh 00:10:37.259 --> 00:10:40.200 bloodlines that will help fight inbreeding while 00:10:40.200 --> 00:10:43.000 still delivering solid performance. Why have 00:10:43.000 --> 00:10:45.460 some traits been harder to improve than others? 00:10:45.720 --> 00:10:49.240 I know fertility has been a struggle. It comes 00:10:49.240 --> 00:10:51.659 down to heritability. Let me explain with some 00:10:51.659 --> 00:10:55.080 numbers. Lactation yield has a heritability estimate 00:10:55.080 --> 00:11:01.480 of 0 .46, while days open is just 0 .09. Higher 00:11:01.480 --> 00:11:04.179 heritability traits respond more readily to selection 00:11:04.179 --> 00:11:06.840 pressure. So that's why production traits improved 00:11:06.840 --> 00:11:11.529 quickly while fertility lagged behind. What really 00:11:11.529 --> 00:11:14.470 excites me is how selection based on genomics 00:11:14.470 --> 00:11:16.529 has rescued traits that were heading in the wrong 00:11:16.529 --> 00:11:19.870 direction. Research clearly shows that genetic 00:11:19.870 --> 00:11:22.509 trends changed from negative or close to zero 00:11:22.509 --> 00:11:25.049 to positive for traditionally difficult to evaluate 00:11:25.049 --> 00:11:28.470 traits like milking cow conception rate, productive 00:11:28.470 --> 00:11:32.029 life, and somatic cell score. We're not just 00:11:32.029 --> 00:11:34.450 making small improvements, we're correcting the 00:11:34.450 --> 00:11:39.279 whole course of the breed. So Douglas, Based 00:11:39.279 --> 00:11:42.019 on everything we've discussed, where do you see 00:11:42.019 --> 00:11:44.259 Holstein breeding strategies heading in the future? 00:11:45.039 --> 00:11:48.320 Based on the data from these 16 years, I'd bet 00:11:48.320 --> 00:11:51.679 my farm on several major shifts. First, we'll 00:11:51.679 --> 00:11:53.720 keep pivoting hard toward functional health and 00:11:53.720 --> 00:11:56.980 efficiency traits. The days of selecting primarily 00:11:56.980 --> 00:11:59.840 for production and type are over. Sorry, not 00:11:59.840 --> 00:12:03.019 sorry. Modern breeding programs need to balance 00:12:03.019 --> 00:12:05.850 these traditional traits with newer priorities 00:12:05.850 --> 00:12:08.269 that impact sustainability and profitability. 00:12:09.809 --> 00:12:13.490 Second, A2A2 milk genetics will soon be the standard, 00:12:13.669 --> 00:12:16.929 not a specialty. The trend is clear in our data, 00:12:17.009 --> 00:12:20.269 and industry forecasts agree, predicting increased 00:12:20.269 --> 00:12:23.029 fat and protein yields, increased percent fat, 00:12:23.110 --> 00:12:25.850 and a prevalence of A2A2 in the coming decade. 00:12:26.429 --> 00:12:29.230 And tetherless. I'm already seeing this at the 00:12:29.230 --> 00:12:32.059 farm level. More and more producers are asking 00:12:32.059 --> 00:12:35.259 specifically about A2A2 status when making breeding 00:12:35.259 --> 00:12:39.139 decisions. Third, new data and information resulting 00:12:39.139 --> 00:12:42.019 from new technologies and methodologies will 00:12:42.019 --> 00:12:44.399 continue to help drive the acceleration in genetic 00:12:44.399 --> 00:12:47.320 progress while addressing genetic diversity concerns. 00:12:47.899 --> 00:12:50.759 With 90 % of Holstein registrations submitted 00:12:50.759 --> 00:12:53.960 electronically, our industry will have the infrastructure 00:12:53.960 --> 00:12:59.100 for sophisticated genetic management. And finally, 00:12:59.559 --> 00:13:01.980 This might ruffle some feathers. Animal welfare 00:13:01.980 --> 00:13:04.620 traits like polled and healthy hoof genetics 00:13:04.620 --> 00:13:07.039 will increasingly drive selection decisions. 00:13:07.740 --> 00:13:10.539 Consumers care more about this stuff every year. 00:13:11.299 --> 00:13:14.679 Absolutely. Genetics that address welfare concerns 00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:17.519 will command market premiums paid by processors. 00:13:18.299 --> 00:13:20.820 Smart breeders are already positioning themselves 00:13:20.820 --> 00:13:24.299 for this shift. What an incredible journey we've 00:13:24.299 --> 00:13:28.220 traced today. Over 16 years, Holstein breeding 00:13:28.220 --> 00:13:31.840 philosophy has changed dramatically. We've collectively 00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:34.620 rejected the super sire model in favor of genetic 00:13:34.620 --> 00:13:37.679 diversification, completely transformed how we 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:40.840 manage genetic resources and risk, and broadened 00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:44.100 our genetic focus beyond milk and type. Canadian 00:13:44.100 --> 00:13:46.580 and American Holstein breeders have shown incredible 00:13:46.580 --> 00:13:49.399 adaptability through all this change. They've 00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:51.940 navigated the transition from traditional progeny 00:13:51.940 --> 00:13:55.299 testing to genomic selection. while simultaneously 00:13:55.299 --> 00:13:58.200 embracing a more comprehensive view of what makes 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:02.000 a profitable cow. The data doesn't lie. Breeders 00:14:02.000 --> 00:14:04.299 are using genetic information more strategically 00:14:04.299 --> 00:14:07.799 than ever before. The winners in tomorrow's dairy 00:14:07.799 --> 00:14:10.299 industry won't be those blindly chasing the highest 00:14:10.299 --> 00:14:13.399 numbers, but those who skillfully balance genetics, 00:14:13.799 --> 00:14:17.669 economics, and consumer demands. With genomic 00:14:17.669 --> 00:14:20.669 selection slashing generation intervals, from 00:14:20.669 --> 00:14:24.289 10 .4 years to just 2 .5 years on the sire -to 00:14:24.289 --> 00:14:27.330 -bull path, genetic improvement will only accelerate 00:14:27.330 --> 00:14:30.730 from here. The real question isn't whether your 00:14:30.730 --> 00:14:33.529 breeding program will transform, but whether 00:14:33.529 --> 00:14:36.009 you'll lead or participate in that transformation 00:14:36.009 --> 00:14:39.610 or be left to play catch -up or exit the industry. 00:14:39.990 --> 00:14:42.330 That's all for today's episode of the Bullvine 00:14:42.330 --> 00:14:45.639 Podcast. We'd love to hear your thoughts on these 00:14:45.639 --> 00:14:49.139 dramatic shifts in Holstein breeding. Are you 00:14:49.139 --> 00:14:51.879 ready for what comes next? Let us know in the 00:14:51.879 --> 00:14:55.019 comments or on our website at thebullvine .com. 00:14:55.179 --> 00:14:57.419 And if you enjoyed today's episode, please subscribe, 00:14:57.740 --> 00:15:00.299 leave a review, and share with other dairy enthusiasts. 00:15:00.740 --> 00:15:03.899 Until next time, I'm Douglas. And I'm Bella, 00:15:04.039 --> 00:15:06.679 reminding you to keep breeding for tomorrow's 00:15:06.679 --> 00:15:07.399 perfect cow.