WEBVTT 00:00:10.670 --> 00:00:13.589 Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your source 00:00:13.589 --> 00:00:16.609 for cutting -edge dairy industry insights. I'm 00:00:16.609 --> 00:00:19.210 Bella, joined as always by the man who knows 00:00:19.210 --> 00:00:21.890 more about dairy farming than most cows do, Douglas. 00:00:22.559 --> 00:00:25.440 Today, we're diving into what might be the most 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:28.320 financially devastating threat facing dairy operations 00:00:28.320 --> 00:00:33.100 right now, the H5N1 bird flu crisis. Thanks, 00:00:33.159 --> 00:00:38.039 Bella. This isn't going to be one of our more 00:00:38.039 --> 00:00:40.460 cheerful episodes, folks, but it might be one 00:00:40.460 --> 00:00:42.240 of the most important ones you'll hear this year. 00:00:42.820 --> 00:00:45.340 Cornell University just released a bombshell 00:00:45.340 --> 00:00:48.780 study on H5N1 in dairy cattle, and the numbers 00:00:48.780 --> 00:00:51.570 are frankly shocking. We're talking about cows 00:00:51.570 --> 00:00:54.109 losing a full ton of milk with no recovery in 00:00:54.109 --> 00:00:56.890 sight, silent infections spreading throughout 00:00:56.890 --> 00:01:00.570 herds, and losses approaching $1 ,000 per cow. 00:01:00.969 --> 00:01:04.170 Douglas, I know our listeners are busy people. 00:01:04.689 --> 00:01:07.469 What's the single most important takeaway they 00:01:07.469 --> 00:01:10.469 should get from today's episode? Simply put, 00:01:10.629 --> 00:01:13.689 Bella, this isn't just another disease challenge. 00:01:14.250 --> 00:01:17.730 The combination of silent spread, Devastating 00:01:17.730 --> 00:01:20.909 production impacts and inadequate industry preparation 00:01:20.909 --> 00:01:23.450 makes this potentially the biggest financial 00:01:23.450 --> 00:01:27.409 threat to dairy operations this decade. But the 00:01:27.409 --> 00:01:29.650 good news is, we'll be covering exactly what 00:01:29.650 --> 00:01:31.890 smart producers are doing right now to protect 00:01:31.890 --> 00:01:34.629 their herds and their bottom lines. Let's start 00:01:34.629 --> 00:01:37.890 with the basics. What exactly did this Cornell 00:01:37.890 --> 00:01:40.909 study look at, and why is it causing such alarm 00:01:40.909 --> 00:01:43.870 in the industry? The Cornell researchers spent 00:01:43.870 --> 00:01:47.340 67 days, about two months, studying an outbreak 00:01:47.340 --> 00:01:52.079 at a 3 ,900 cow dairy operation in Ohio. This 00:01:52.079 --> 00:01:54.879 wasn't some small experimental setting. This 00:01:54.879 --> 00:01:57.219 was a real commercial operation dealing with 00:01:57.219 --> 00:02:00.780 a real outbreak from March to April 2024. What 00:02:00.780 --> 00:02:03.200 makes this study groundbreaking is they tracked 00:02:03.200 --> 00:02:06.280 individual animals rather than just looking at 00:02:06.280 --> 00:02:08.840 bulk tank data, which revealed impacts that were 00:02:08.840 --> 00:02:12.159 previously being missed. And what exactly did 00:02:12.159 --> 00:02:14.580 they find when they looked at individual animals? 00:02:16.009 --> 00:02:19.629 The numbers are staggering, Bella. 20 % of the 00:02:19.629 --> 00:02:24.610 herd, that's 777 animals, got infected. But here's 00:02:24.610 --> 00:02:28.550 the truly frightening part. 76 % of those infected 00:02:28.550 --> 00:02:31.610 cows showed absolutely no symptoms while still 00:02:31.610 --> 00:02:35.009 spreading the virus. That means 3 out of 4 infected 00:02:35.009 --> 00:02:37.270 animals in a herd could be silently spreading 00:02:37.270 --> 00:02:39.729 disease while looking completely normal to the 00:02:39.729 --> 00:02:43.169 naked eye. Heaning three -quarters of infected 00:02:43.169 --> 00:02:46.349 animals showing no symptoms? That's a biosecurity 00:02:46.349 --> 00:02:49.270 nightmare. How does that compare to other common 00:02:49.270 --> 00:02:53.250 dairy diseases? It's unprecedented. Most contagious 00:02:53.250 --> 00:02:56.270 diseases we deal with, like mastitis or BVD, 00:02:56.430 --> 00:02:59.569 show some clinical signs that alert us. Even 00:02:59.569 --> 00:03:02.030 subclinical mastitis can be detected through 00:03:02.030 --> 00:03:05.750 somatic cell counts. But this level of asymptomatic 00:03:05.750 --> 00:03:07.949 infection means the virus is likely far more 00:03:07.949 --> 00:03:10.949 widespread than we realize. And for the cows 00:03:10.949 --> 00:03:13.889 that did show symptoms, they were 3 .6 times 00:03:13.889 --> 00:03:17.009 more likely to be culled from the herd. What 00:03:17.009 --> 00:03:19.469 about the source of the outbreak? Do we know 00:03:19.469 --> 00:03:22.750 how it started? In this case, they traced it 00:03:22.750 --> 00:03:25.150 back to a single, apparently healthy cow brought 00:03:25.150 --> 00:03:28.810 in from Texas. Just 13 days after introduction, 00:03:29.090 --> 00:03:31.650 the first clinical case appeared, and then they 00:03:31.650 --> 00:03:34.069 had new cases every single day for three straight 00:03:34.069 --> 00:03:40.620 weeks. One animal, 777 infections. Let that sink 00:03:40.620 --> 00:03:43.599 in. In frowling, it really makes you question 00:03:43.599 --> 00:03:46.620 biosecurity protocols for introducing new animals 00:03:46.620 --> 00:03:49.919 into a herd, doesn't it? Well, Bella, I'd say 00:03:49.919 --> 00:03:52.120 a three -quarter million dollar loss should indeed 00:03:52.120 --> 00:03:55.639 make one question their protocols. The study 00:03:55.639 --> 00:03:58.139 showed seroprevalence testing, that's testing 00:03:58.139 --> 00:04:01.780 for antibodies, revealed nearly 90 % of the 637 00:04:01.780 --> 00:04:04.199 animals present during the clinical phase showed 00:04:04.199 --> 00:04:08.340 positive antibodies. And even 17 of 42 dry cows 00:04:08.340 --> 00:04:11.139 had antibodies, proving non -lactating animals 00:04:11.139 --> 00:04:14.060 aren't safe from infection and can serve as viral 00:04:14.060 --> 00:04:17.939 reservoirs. That lines up with what a California 00:04:17.939 --> 00:04:21.180 producer experienced, right? James Wentworth 00:04:21.180 --> 00:04:24.259 from Sunshine Dairy shared his experience with 00:04:24.259 --> 00:04:27.620 this virus recently. That's right. Wentworth 00:04:27.620 --> 00:04:30.459 reported a 5 % drop in milk production across 00:04:30.459 --> 00:04:33.060 his herd about a week before any clinical signs 00:04:33.060 --> 00:04:36.439 appeared. Their rumination monitoring system 00:04:36.439 --> 00:04:40.220 flagged 27 cows with decreased activity, and 00:04:40.220 --> 00:04:43.120 when they separated those animals, testing confirmed 00:04:43.120 --> 00:04:47.740 H5N1 in 19 of them. Even with that early action, 00:04:47.959 --> 00:04:52.319 their total losses still reached $175 ,000 across 00:04:52.319 --> 00:04:56.230 their 500 -cow operation. So even with the latest 00:04:56.230 --> 00:04:59.269 technology and quick action, the financial impacts 00:04:59.269 --> 00:05:04.009 were still substantial. Exactly. Early detection 00:05:04.009 --> 00:05:06.509 through technology helped limit spread, but the 00:05:06.509 --> 00:05:09.589 economic damage remained significant. This is 00:05:09.589 --> 00:05:12.269 why producers need to take this threat so seriously. 00:05:12.870 --> 00:05:15.050 Let's talk more about the production impacts. 00:05:15.490 --> 00:05:18.949 How badly does this virus affect milk yields? 00:05:19.490 --> 00:05:22.149 If you think mastitis hits your milk, check hard. 00:05:22.920 --> 00:05:25.420 Bird flu makes those losses look like pocket 00:05:25.420 --> 00:05:29.639 change. Two weeks post -infection, affected cows 00:05:29.639 --> 00:05:31.920 saw milk production collapse by nearly three 00:05:31.920 --> 00:05:35.720 -fourths, that's 73%, plummeting from a respectable 00:05:35.720 --> 00:05:39.759 35 kilograms daily to just 10 kilograms. To put 00:05:39.759 --> 00:05:42.519 that in perspective for our listeners, how does 00:05:42.519 --> 00:05:44.660 that compare to something like a severe case 00:05:44.660 --> 00:05:47.279 of mastitis, which most dairy farmers have dealt 00:05:47.279 --> 00:05:51.490 with? Let me break it down in a way that makes 00:05:51.490 --> 00:05:54.529 the difference crystal clear. With severe mastitis, 00:05:54.730 --> 00:05:57.649 you might see production losses up to 18 kilograms 00:05:57.649 --> 00:06:02.089 per day. With H5N1, we're seeing 35 kilograms 00:06:02.089 --> 00:06:06.209 per day lost at peak. Mastitis typically resolves 00:06:06.209 --> 00:06:09.589 in two to three weeks, while H5N1 shows no recovery 00:06:09.589 --> 00:06:13.439 even after 60 plus days. Total milk loss from 00:06:13.439 --> 00:06:16.920 mastitis might be 100 to 200 kilograms, while 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:21.319 H5N1 is causing 901 .2 kilograms over just two 00:06:21.319 --> 00:06:24.639 months. And financially, mastitis might cost 00:06:24.639 --> 00:06:29.500 you $200 to $300 per case, while H5N1 is $950 00:06:29.500 --> 00:06:33.660 per cow. And even more alarming is that the cows 00:06:33.660 --> 00:06:37.360 never recovered their production, right? Correct. 00:06:37.839 --> 00:06:41.279 Even after 60 days of observation, These animals 00:06:41.279 --> 00:06:43.259 showed no return to pre -infection production 00:06:43.259 --> 00:06:46.860 levels. The Cornell team's findings utterly contradict 00:06:46.860 --> 00:06:49.759 industry messaging that suggested infected cows 00:06:49.759 --> 00:06:53.240 typically lose 10 -20 % of production for just 00:06:53.240 --> 00:06:57.480 7 -10 days. The reality is far grimmer and longer 00:06:57.480 --> 00:07:01.339 lasting. Douglas, were there any early warning 00:07:01.339 --> 00:07:04.399 signs that producers might look for? This is 00:07:04.399 --> 00:07:06.680 where investing in rumination tags and parlor 00:07:06.680 --> 00:07:09.930 automation pays off. The Cornell team documented 00:07:09.930 --> 00:07:12.569 that both rumination time and milk production 00:07:12.569 --> 00:07:15.550 began declining approximately five days before 00:07:15.550 --> 00:07:19.050 clinical diagnosis was possible. Without sophisticated 00:07:19.050 --> 00:07:21.470 monitoring systems tracking individual cows, 00:07:21.750 --> 00:07:24.769 these early warning signs go completely unnoticed 00:07:24.769 --> 00:07:27.129 until the disease has firmly established itself. 00:07:28.050 --> 00:07:32.269 And what symptoms eventually appear? Listing, 00:07:32.310 --> 00:07:35.459 Dr. Elisha Fry from Cornell observed that The 00:07:35.459 --> 00:07:37.519 cows in Texas weren't producing as much milk 00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:40.399 and milk consistency was very different. The 00:07:40.399 --> 00:07:42.839 cows had mild respiratory signs, weren't eating 00:07:42.839 --> 00:07:45.459 well, and some had short -term, low -grade fevers. 00:07:46.100 --> 00:07:48.920 The main clinical signs include thickened, abnormal 00:07:48.920 --> 00:07:52.060 milk, decreased feed intake, lethargy and low 00:07:52.060 --> 00:07:54.980 -grade fever, mild respiratory signs, and occasionally 00:07:54.980 --> 00:07:58.639 diarrhea. That sounds quite different from how 00:07:58.639 --> 00:08:01.740 bird flu affects poultry, where mortality is 00:08:01.740 --> 00:08:05.740 extremely high. That's an important distinction. 00:08:06.180 --> 00:08:09.160 Unlike in poultry, where bird flu causes devastating 00:08:09.160 --> 00:08:12.019 mortality, cattle generally recover from the 00:08:12.019 --> 00:08:14.980 virus, but the production losses linger for months. 00:08:15.480 --> 00:08:18.540 That's actually part of the problem. Cows don't 00:08:18.540 --> 00:08:21.120 die, they just become long -term economic drains 00:08:21.120 --> 00:08:24.379 on the operation. Let's talk dollars and cents. 00:08:24.740 --> 00:08:27.699 What does this mean financially for the average 00:08:27.699 --> 00:08:34.110 dairy operation? They calculated losses of approximately 00:08:34.110 --> 00:08:38.850 $950 per affected cow, with total farm losses 00:08:38.850 --> 00:08:43.570 reaching a staggering $737 ,500 over the observation 00:08:43.570 --> 00:08:47.750 period. That's three -quarters of a million dollars 00:08:47.750 --> 00:08:50.730 evaporating from one operation in just over two 00:08:50.730 --> 00:08:54.149 months. And those numbers could actually be conservative 00:08:54.149 --> 00:08:59.409 estimates, correct? Absolutely. The researchers 00:08:59.409 --> 00:09:01.870 emphasize that the true cost could be substantially 00:09:01.870 --> 00:09:04.909 higher when accounting for reproductive disruptions, 00:09:05.029 --> 00:09:08.409 labor complications, medical interventions, enhanced 00:09:08.409 --> 00:09:11.509 biosecurity measures, and other operational impacts. 00:09:12.049 --> 00:09:15.250 These additional factors suggest many operations 00:09:15.250 --> 00:09:18.070 could face seven -figure losses from severe outbreaks. 00:09:19.149 --> 00:09:22.610 Practical. Let's break this down by herd size 00:09:22.610 --> 00:09:24.950 to help our listeners understand what this might 00:09:24.950 --> 00:09:27.899 mean for their specific operations. Here's the 00:09:27.899 --> 00:09:30.100 math that no one wants to face, but everyone 00:09:30.100 --> 00:09:33.360 needs to prepare for. With a small 200 -cow herd, 00:09:33.539 --> 00:09:37.139 if 20 % get infected, that's 40 cows and $38 00:09:37.139 --> 00:09:41.059 ,000 in losses. With a medium 500 -cow operation, 00:09:41.379 --> 00:09:46.259 that's 100 infected cows and $95 ,000 gone. A 00:09:46.259 --> 00:09:49.639 1 ,000 -cow dairy would face $190 ,000 in losses. 00:09:49.899 --> 00:09:51.980 And for an operation the size of the Cornell 00:09:51.980 --> 00:09:57.039 Study herd, 3 ,900 cows, The losses reached $737 00:09:57.039 --> 00:10:01.740 ,500. That's enough to put some operations out 00:10:01.740 --> 00:10:05.279 of business entirely. Are these losses typically 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:08.840 covered by farm insurance? Unfortunately, no. 00:10:09.360 --> 00:10:12.039 Most standard farm insurance policies do not 00:10:12.039 --> 00:10:15.120 specifically cover disease outbreaks, creating 00:10:15.120 --> 00:10:18.379 a dangerous gap in protection. According to National 00:10:18.379 --> 00:10:21.000 Cattlemen's Beef Association insurance specialists, 00:10:21.909 --> 00:10:24.169 Traditional business interruption coverage typically 00:10:24.169 --> 00:10:27.350 excludes infectious disease losses unless specifically 00:10:27.350 --> 00:10:33.450 endorsed. According to dairy risk management 00:10:33.450 --> 00:10:37.230 consultant David Cole from Virginia Tech, specialized 00:10:37.230 --> 00:10:39.830 business interruption policies that cover disease 00:10:39.830 --> 00:10:42.850 outbreaks do exist, but remain uncommon in the 00:10:42.850 --> 00:10:46.970 dairy sector. Cole noted in a January 2025 industry 00:10:46.970 --> 00:10:50.100 assessment, that fewer than 10 % of operations 00:10:50.100 --> 00:10:52.820 have adequate protection against a severe outbreak 00:10:52.820 --> 00:10:57.659 like H5N1. The USDA's Animal and Plant Health 00:10:57.659 --> 00:11:00.639 Inspection Service, or APHIS, offers limited 00:11:00.639 --> 00:11:03.419 indemnity payments only for animals that must 00:11:03.419 --> 00:11:06.460 be destroyed, not for production losses, leaving 00:11:06.460 --> 00:11:09.200 most farms exposed to the full financial impact. 00:11:09.639 --> 00:11:12.600 And to make matters worse, the research shows 00:11:12.600 --> 00:11:15.279 it's often your best cows that get hit hardest, 00:11:15.500 --> 00:11:18.179 right? That's one of the crueler aspects of this 00:11:18.179 --> 00:11:21.559 disease. Your highest -producing multiparous 00:11:21.559 --> 00:11:23.899 cows face the greatest risk of clinical disease. 00:11:24.840 --> 00:11:27.980 The Cornell study documented significantly higher 00:11:27.980 --> 00:11:30.399 vulnerability among these animals compared to 00:11:30.399 --> 00:11:33.620 first lactation or dry cows. This pattern has 00:11:33.620 --> 00:11:36.100 appeared in other studies as well, suggesting 00:11:36.100 --> 00:11:39.120 a possible link between cumulative exposure to 00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:42.200 the milking process and clinical disease susceptibility. 00:11:42.649 --> 00:11:45.129 Is there a scientific explanation for why the 00:11:45.129 --> 00:11:48.809 virus targets high producers? Scientists have 00:11:48.809 --> 00:11:52.309 discovered that H5N1 has a predilection for the 00:11:52.309 --> 00:11:54.970 udder due to specific receptors in the mammary 00:11:54.970 --> 00:11:58.549 gland. In plain language, the virus doesn't just 00:11:58.549 --> 00:12:01.549 happen to affect milk production. It deliberately 00:12:01.549 --> 00:12:04.029 targets the udder because the mammary tissue 00:12:04.029 --> 00:12:06.909 contains the exact cellular machinery the virus 00:12:06.909 --> 00:12:10.240 needs to replicate efficiently. This explains 00:12:10.240 --> 00:12:12.500 why your best milk producers get hit the hardest. 00:12:13.000 --> 00:12:15.860 Their actively producing mammary tissue provides 00:12:15.860 --> 00:12:18.220 the perfect environment for viral replication. 00:12:19.340 --> 00:12:23.080 When it comes to H5N1, your best cows literally 00:12:23.080 --> 00:12:25.700 have targets on their backs. Let's talk about 00:12:25.700 --> 00:12:28.840 how this virus is changing. I understand new 00:12:28.840 --> 00:12:31.179 strains have emerged since the initial outbreaks. 00:12:32.539 --> 00:12:34.659 That's what's keeping scientists up at night. 00:12:35.279 --> 00:12:37.580 The original dairy cattle outbreaks starting 00:12:37.580 --> 00:12:42.580 in March 2024 were caused by H5N1 clade 2 .3 00:12:42.580 --> 00:12:48.960 .4 .4B genotype B 3 .13. But on January 31, 2025, 00:12:49.419 --> 00:12:52.220 the USDA confirmed the first detection of a different 00:12:52.220 --> 00:12:58.820 strain, H5N1 clade 2 .3 .4 .4B genotype D 1 .1 00:12:58.820 --> 00:13:01.679 in dairy cattle in Nevada. And that represents 00:13:01.679 --> 00:13:04.679 a completely new spillover from wild birds. To 00:13:04.679 --> 00:13:09.279 cattle, correct? Exactly. By early February, 00:13:09.620 --> 00:13:13.100 Arizona had also reported D1 .1 in dairy cattle, 00:13:13.320 --> 00:13:15.740 confirming the virus is actively finding new 00:13:15.740 --> 00:13:19.200 pathways into herds. Dr. Diego Diel from Cornell 00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:21.600 University warned that when there is spillover 00:13:21.600 --> 00:13:24.799 of HPAI to a new species, especially to mammals, 00:13:25.059 --> 00:13:27.480 it is always concerning as the virus may adapt 00:13:27.480 --> 00:13:30.059 and gain the ability to transmit between animals. 00:13:32.460 --> 00:13:35.100 I've heard about mutations in these virus strains. 00:13:35.360 --> 00:13:38.059 What do those mean in practical terms for dairy 00:13:38.059 --> 00:13:41.740 producers? The D1 .1 strain includes mutations 00:13:41.740 --> 00:13:44.220 that help the virus infect mammals more efficiently. 00:13:44.980 --> 00:13:49.779 Scientists have identified a PB2D701N mutation 00:13:49.779 --> 00:13:55.120 in some D1 .1 sequences and a PB2E627K mutation 00:13:55.120 --> 00:13:59.440 in a B3 .13 sequence. In simple terms, these 00:13:59.440 --> 00:14:01.600 mutations are like installing a better key in 00:14:01.600 --> 00:14:04.419 a lock. They allow the virus to unlock mammalian 00:14:04.419 --> 00:14:07.440 cells more efficiently, leading to faster replication 00:14:07.440 --> 00:14:11.360 and potentially more severe disease. Every time 00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:14.539 the virus jumps to a new mammalian host, it gets 00:14:14.539 --> 00:14:16.779 another opportunity to develop these adaptations. 00:14:17.320 --> 00:14:20.120 How widespread is this in the U .S. dairy herd 00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:25.000 now? As of January 3, 2025, The USDA had reported 00:14:25.000 --> 00:14:29.799 influenza A H5N1 in 915 dairy herds across 16 00:14:29.799 --> 00:14:32.679 states, with California bearing the brunt of 00:14:32.679 --> 00:14:37.080 the crisis at 699 affected herds. This isn't 00:14:37.080 --> 00:14:39.779 a minor issue. It's an industry -defining crisis 00:14:39.779 --> 00:14:42.679 that's still expanding. How are these cases being 00:14:42.679 --> 00:14:47.000 found? Is there a national strategy? The USDA's 00:14:47.000 --> 00:14:49.580 National Milk Testing Strategy, which began in 00:14:49.580 --> 00:14:53.389 December 2024, is actively identifying outbreaks. 00:14:53.830 --> 00:14:56.789 The program collects raw milk samples from processing 00:14:56.789 --> 00:15:00.830 facility silos across 45 states, allowing detection 00:15:00.830 --> 00:15:03.070 of the virus before clinical signs appear in 00:15:03.070 --> 00:15:07.029 many cases. The D1 .1 outbreaks in Nevada and 00:15:07.029 --> 00:15:09.549 Arizona were both identified through this silo 00:15:09.549 --> 00:15:12.190 testing program. Let's shift to consumer safety. 00:15:12.509 --> 00:15:15.409 With so many infected herds, should consumers 00:15:15.409 --> 00:15:19.139 be concerned about milk safety? While the production 00:15:19.139 --> 00:15:21.759 situation looks bleak, there is one silver lining. 00:15:22.100 --> 00:15:24.759 The FDA has conducted extensive testing of retail 00:15:24.759 --> 00:15:27.399 dairy products and found them consistently negative 00:15:27.399 --> 00:15:31.220 for viable H5N1 virus. Their sampling included 00:15:31.220 --> 00:15:34.240 pasteurized milk, cheese, butter, ice cream, 00:15:34.379 --> 00:15:37.299 and even aged raw milk cheese products, with 00:15:37.299 --> 00:15:39.899 all pasteurized samples testing negative for 00:15:39.899 --> 00:15:42.740 viable virus. Can you share some specifics about 00:15:42.740 --> 00:15:46.590 that testing program? The FDA tested multiple 00:15:46.590 --> 00:15:50.529 samples from a total of 464 retail dairy products, 00:15:50.769 --> 00:15:53.429 including pasteurized milk, cheese, butter, and 00:15:53.429 --> 00:15:56.529 ice cream. They also examined aged raw milk cheese 00:15:56.529 --> 00:16:00.470 products included in 297 retail samples. All 00:16:00.470 --> 00:16:03.090 tests used both quantitative reverse transcription 00:16:03.090 --> 00:16:07.690 polymerase chain reaction, that's QRT -PCR, and 00:16:07.690 --> 00:16:10.610 egg inoculation methods. Every single pasteurized 00:16:10.610 --> 00:16:13.659 product tested negative. So pasteurization effectively 00:16:13.659 --> 00:16:17.279 kills the virus. According to a University of 00:16:17.279 --> 00:16:20.620 Wisconsin -Madison study, pasteurization is 99 00:16:20.620 --> 00:16:25.320 .99 % effective in inactivating the H5N1 virus 00:16:25.320 --> 00:16:28.019 in milk, supporting the belief that the commercial 00:16:28.019 --> 00:16:31.519 milk supply remains safe. So while the virus 00:16:31.519 --> 00:16:34.080 may be wrecking your production, at least it's 00:16:34.080 --> 00:16:36.679 not triggering consumer panic about milk safety. 00:16:37.539 --> 00:16:41.179 What about raw milk? I'm guessing the risk profile 00:16:41.179 --> 00:16:44.480 is quite different there. Cornell University's 00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:46.700 quantitative risk assessment paints a shocking 00:16:46.700 --> 00:16:49.600 picture of the safety difference. The probability 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:54.100 of H5N1 infection per 240 milliliter serving 00:16:54.100 --> 00:16:58.120 of pasteurized milk is 5 .68 times 10 to the 00:16:58.120 --> 00:17:02.000 negative 15. That's practically zero. But for 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:05.460 farm store raw milk, it's 1 .13 times 10 to the 00:17:05.460 --> 00:17:10.200 negative 3, or about .00113. That makes raw milk 00:17:10.200 --> 00:17:16.900 198 trillion, 943 billion, 661 million, 972 times 00:17:16.900 --> 00:17:21.019 riskier than pasteurized milk. That's not a typo. 00:17:21.299 --> 00:17:24.839 The risk from raw milk is nearly 200 trillion 00:17:24.839 --> 00:17:28.400 times higher. 200 trillion times higher risk. 00:17:28.599 --> 00:17:31.460 I imagine regulatory agencies are responding 00:17:31.460 --> 00:17:34.779 to this threat. They certainly are. Colorado 00:17:34.779 --> 00:17:37.259 became the first state to mandate weekly testing 00:17:37.259 --> 00:17:40.119 for all licensed dairy farms starting July 22, 00:17:40.460 --> 00:17:44.460 2024. Though pasteurization has proven extremely 00:17:44.460 --> 00:17:48.740 effective in inactivating the H5N1 virus, Colorado 00:17:48.740 --> 00:17:52.539 leads the nation in human cases of H5N1, including 00:17:52.539 --> 00:17:56.500 several new cases in poultry farm workers. The 00:17:56.500 --> 00:17:59.119 FDA has also issued guidance letters to state, 00:17:59.140 --> 00:18:02.450 territorial, and tribal partners offering recommendations 00:18:02.450 --> 00:18:05.210 regarding the sale and consumption of raw milk 00:18:05.210 --> 00:18:08.849 amid the outbreak. Additionally, they've launched 00:18:08.849 --> 00:18:11.450 a new sampling assignment specifically for aged 00:18:11.450 --> 00:18:14.990 raw cow's milk cheese that began December 23, 00:18:15.329 --> 00:18:19.029 2024, with results expected by the end of March 00:18:19.029 --> 00:18:23.170 2025. Let's turn to practical advice. What are 00:18:23.170 --> 00:18:25.829 the industry's leading producers doing to protect 00:18:25.829 --> 00:18:29.109 their herds? The Cornell findings make it clear. 00:18:29.710 --> 00:18:32.170 This isn't just another disease to shrug off. 00:18:32.430 --> 00:18:35.349 Smart dairy operators are implementing five key 00:18:35.349 --> 00:18:38.809 countermeasures. First, they're locking down 00:18:38.809 --> 00:18:41.750 biosecurity. Given that one infected animal introduced 00:18:41.750 --> 00:18:44.849 from Texas triggered this entire disaster, reinforcing 00:18:44.849 --> 00:18:47.910 isolation protocols for new arrivals is no longer 00:18:47.910 --> 00:18:51.309 optional. Second, they're investing in monitoring 00:18:51.309 --> 00:18:55.059 technology. Systems tracking rumination and individual 00:18:55.059 --> 00:18:57.980 milk production can catch infections five days 00:18:57.980 --> 00:19:00.880 before clinical signs appear, potentially enabling 00:19:00.880 --> 00:19:06.640 earlier isolation of affected animals. Third, 00:19:08.839 --> 00:19:11.420 they're implementing financial contingency planning, 00:19:11.660 --> 00:19:15.960 with losses potentially exceeding $950 per affected 00:19:15.960 --> 00:19:19.279 cow and lasting at least 60 days. Operations 00:19:19.279 --> 00:19:21.819 need financial buffers to weather extended production 00:19:21.819 --> 00:19:25.180 crashes. Fourth, they're enhancing surveillance 00:19:25.180 --> 00:19:28.400 for multiparous cows. Since these animals face 00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:31.559 higher risk, prioritizing monitoring of established 00:19:31.559 --> 00:19:33.619 producers could enable faster interventions. 00:19:34.420 --> 00:19:37.619 And fifth, they're looking beyond bulk tank metrics. 00:19:37.759 --> 00:19:40.759 As the researchers noted, persistent milk loss 00:19:40.759 --> 00:19:43.279 could be overlooked when only examining herd 00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:47.170 -level milk production. Individual cow monitoring 00:19:47.170 --> 00:19:49.789 is essential to capture the full economic impact. 00:19:52.150 --> 00:19:58.750 Horizon Dairy in Wisconsin demonstrates what 00:19:58.750 --> 00:20:01.990 effective monitoring can accomplish. When their 00:20:01.990 --> 00:20:05.089 rumination monitoring system flagged a 12 % decrease 00:20:05.089 --> 00:20:08.450 in rumination time across a group of 60 cows 00:20:08.450 --> 00:20:11.869 in November 2024, they immediately isolated the 00:20:11.869 --> 00:20:15.930 group and tested for H5N1. Their operations manager, 00:20:16.109 --> 00:20:19.309 Sarah Jensen, explained that by catching it early, 00:20:19.450 --> 00:20:22.970 we limited the spread to just 97 of our 2 ,800 00:20:22.970 --> 00:20:26.829 cows. We estimate this early detection saved 00:20:26.829 --> 00:20:31.190 us over $1 .2 million in potential losses. What 00:20:31.190 --> 00:20:33.710 specific strategies did Horizon Dairy credit 00:20:33.710 --> 00:20:36.690 for their success? Jensen credits their success 00:20:36.690 --> 00:20:40.750 to three key factors. 24 -hour rumination monitoring 00:20:40.750 --> 00:20:44.279 with automated alerts. a dedicated isolation 00:20:44.279 --> 00:20:46.900 protocol that could be implemented within hours, 00:20:47.140 --> 00:20:51.319 and regular staff training on H5N1 warning signs. 00:20:51.839 --> 00:20:54.400 Their experience shows that while you might not 00:20:54.400 --> 00:20:57.259 be able to completely prevent an outbreak, early 00:20:57.259 --> 00:21:00.000 detection and rapid response can dramatically 00:21:00.000 --> 00:21:03.480 reduce the financial impact. In Thackle, for 00:21:03.480 --> 00:21:05.880 producers listening right now, what about their 00:21:05.880 --> 00:21:08.839 milk buyers? Should they be having conversations 00:21:08.839 --> 00:21:13.119 with them? Absolutely. With H5N1 spreading rapidly, 00:21:13.380 --> 00:21:15.319 don't wait for your processor to come to you. 00:21:15.660 --> 00:21:19.579 Ask these five questions now. What protocols 00:21:19.579 --> 00:21:21.579 have you established for milk from confirmed 00:21:21.579 --> 00:21:24.779 positive herds? Will you continue accepting milk 00:21:24.779 --> 00:21:26.839 from my operation if we have confirmed cases? 00:21:27.640 --> 00:21:29.980 What testing procedures are being implemented 00:21:29.980 --> 00:21:34.039 beyond the USDA silo sampling? Is there any premium 00:21:34.039 --> 00:21:36.700 or incentive program for operations implementing 00:21:36.700 --> 00:21:39.339 enhanced biosecurity? And what documentation 00:21:39.339 --> 00:21:42.019 will you require if my operation has confirmed 00:21:42.019 --> 00:21:45.440 cases? Getting clarity on these issues before 00:21:45.440 --> 00:21:48.400 an outbreak hits gives you valuable time to prepare 00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:52.420 alternative strategies. Douglas, let's wrap up 00:21:52.420 --> 00:21:55.299 with specific concrete steps that dairy producers 00:21:55.299 --> 00:21:58.519 should take immediately. What actions should 00:21:58.519 --> 00:22:01.359 be at the top of their list this week? Don't 00:22:01.359 --> 00:22:04.009 wait another day. Take these five concrete actions 00:22:04.009 --> 00:22:07.650 this week. First, implement a 21 -day isolation 00:22:07.650 --> 00:22:10.630 protocol for all new animals based on the Cornell 00:22:10.630 --> 00:22:12.950 study showing clinical signs appeared 13 days 00:22:12.950 --> 00:22:15.230 after introduction with a full three -week spread 00:22:15.230 --> 00:22:21.029 period. Visit the USDA APHS website at www .apis 00:22:21.029 --> 00:22:25.809 .usda .gov slash animalhealth slash hpai slash 00:22:25.809 --> 00:22:28.309 dairy for their updated isolation protocol template. 00:22:28.529 --> 00:22:32.190 That's a great starting point. What else should 00:22:32.190 --> 00:22:35.470 producers do immediately? Second, contact your 00:22:35.470 --> 00:22:38.730 monitoring system provider about H5N1 early warning 00:22:38.730 --> 00:22:41.930 settings. Most modern rumination monitoring systems 00:22:41.930 --> 00:22:44.329 can be configured with specific alerts for the 00:22:44.329 --> 00:22:49.029 pattern of decline seen in H5N1 cases. Ask specifically 00:22:49.029 --> 00:22:51.569 about the five -day preclinical detection window 00:22:51.569 --> 00:22:55.670 identified by Cornell. Third, review your insurance 00:22:55.670 --> 00:22:57.710 coverage specifically for disease outbreaks. 00:22:58.430 --> 00:23:00.670 Most standard policies exclude these losses. 00:23:01.170 --> 00:23:04.130 Contact your agent about specialized business 00:23:04.130 --> 00:23:06.869 interruption coverage with explicit infectious 00:23:06.869 --> 00:23:13.390 disease inclusion. Fourth, develop a written 00:23:13.390 --> 00:23:17.430 H5N1 response plan with your veterinarian. The 00:23:17.430 --> 00:23:19.650 American Association of Bovine Practitioners 00:23:19.650 --> 00:23:23.589 at www .abp .org has published a template specifically 00:23:23.589 --> 00:23:28.019 for dairy operations. And fifth, Schedule H5N1 00:23:28.019 --> 00:23:30.960 training for all employees. Even part -time staff 00:23:30.960 --> 00:23:34.099 need to recognize early warning signs. The National 00:23:34.099 --> 00:23:36.279 Milk Producers Federation offers free training 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:40.319 materials in multiple languages at www .mpf .org. 00:23:42.980 --> 00:23:46.039 Today's episode has covered a lot of ground on 00:23:46.039 --> 00:23:48.940 this emerging crisis. The Cornell University 00:23:48.940 --> 00:23:52.019 study has documented devastating impacts from 00:23:52.019 --> 00:23:55.859 H5N1 bird flu in dairy cattle. with infected 00:23:55.859 --> 00:23:58.900 cows losing a staggering 900 kilograms of milk 00:23:58.900 --> 00:24:01.720 over just two months and showing no signs of 00:24:01.720 --> 00:24:05.579 recovery even after 60 days. Perhaps most alarming, 00:24:06.000 --> 00:24:08.920 three -quarters of infected cows display no symptoms, 00:24:09.200 --> 00:24:11.700 allowing silent spread throughout herds before 00:24:11.700 --> 00:24:14.619 detection, with high -producing multiparous cows 00:24:14.619 --> 00:24:19.099 at greatest risk. The economic reality is sobering. 00:24:19.559 --> 00:24:23.920 Losses average $950 per affected cow. with one 00:24:23.920 --> 00:24:29.619 operation losing $737 ,500, vastly exceeding 00:24:29.619 --> 00:24:33.119 previous industry estimates of $100 to $200 per 00:24:33.119 --> 00:24:36.700 case. The good news is that early detection is 00:24:36.700 --> 00:24:39.059 possible through monitoring systems that can 00:24:39.059 --> 00:24:41.559 identify decreased rumination and production 00:24:41.559 --> 00:24:45.119 five days before clinical signs appear, potentially 00:24:45.119 --> 00:24:48.000 saving operations millions through rapid isolation 00:24:48.000 --> 00:24:51.180 protocols. Douglas, any final thoughts for our 00:24:51.180 --> 00:24:54.960 listeners? Is your operation ready for the bird 00:24:54.960 --> 00:24:58.900 flu reality? Because ready or not, it's coming. 00:24:59.460 --> 00:25:02.400 With multiple virus strains now circulating in 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:05.559 U .S. dairy herds across 16 states, immediate 00:25:05.559 --> 00:25:08.420 implementation of enhanced biosecurity, monitoring 00:25:08.420 --> 00:25:11.059 technology, and response planning is critical 00:25:11.059 --> 00:25:14.319 for operational survival. This isn't just another 00:25:14.319 --> 00:25:16.980 disease challenge. It's potentially the biggest 00:25:16.980 --> 00:25:19.460 financial threat your dairy operation will face 00:25:19.460 --> 00:25:22.210 this decade. But with the strategies we've outlined 00:25:22.210 --> 00:25:24.829 today, you can dramatically reduce your risk 00:25:24.829 --> 00:25:29.029 and protect your herd and your bottom line. That's 00:25:29.029 --> 00:25:31.609 all for this week's episode of the Bullvine Podcast. 00:25:32.049 --> 00:25:35.349 Until next time, I'm Bella. And I'm Douglas, 00:25:35.589 --> 00:25:38.049 reminding you to keep your cows healthy, your 00:25:38.049 --> 00:25:40.410 milk flowing, and your biosecurity protocols 00:25:40.410 --> 00:25:42.809 tight. See you next week.