Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your source
for cutting -edge dairy industry insights. I'm
Bella, joined as always by the man who knows
more about dairy farming than most cows do, Douglas.
Today, we're diving into what might be the most
financially devastating threat facing dairy operations
right now, the H5N1 bird flu crisis. Thanks,
Bella. This isn't going to be one of our more
cheerful episodes, folks, but it might be one
of the most important ones you'll hear this year.
Cornell University just released a bombshell
study on H5N1 in dairy cattle, and the numbers
are frankly shocking. We're talking about cows
losing a full ton of milk with no recovery in
sight, silent infections spreading throughout
herds, and losses approaching $1 ,000 per cow.
Douglas, I know our listeners are busy people.
What's the single most important takeaway they
should get from today's episode? Simply put,
Bella, this isn't just another disease challenge.
The combination of silent spread, Devastating
production impacts and inadequate industry preparation
makes this potentially the biggest financial
threat to dairy operations this decade. But the
good news is, we'll be covering exactly what
smart producers are doing right now to protect
their herds and their bottom lines. Let's start
with the basics. What exactly did this Cornell
study look at, and why is it causing such alarm
in the industry? The Cornell researchers spent
67 days, about two months, studying an outbreak
at a 3 ,900 cow dairy operation in Ohio. This
wasn't some small experimental setting. This
was a real commercial operation dealing with
a real outbreak from March to April 2024. What
makes this study groundbreaking is they tracked
individual animals rather than just looking at
bulk tank data, which revealed impacts that were
previously being missed. And what exactly did
they find when they looked at individual animals?
The numbers are staggering, Bella. 20 % of the
herd, that's 777 animals, got infected. But here's
the truly frightening part. 76 % of those infected
cows showed absolutely no symptoms while still
spreading the virus. That means 3 out of 4 infected
animals in a herd could be silently spreading
disease while looking completely normal to the
naked eye. Heaning three -quarters of infected
animals showing no symptoms? That's a biosecurity
nightmare. How does that compare to other common
dairy diseases? It's unprecedented. Most contagious
diseases we deal with, like mastitis or BVD,
show some clinical signs that alert us. Even
subclinical mastitis can be detected through
somatic cell counts. But this level of asymptomatic
infection means the virus is likely far more
widespread than we realize. And for the cows
that did show symptoms, they were 3 .6 times
more likely to be culled from the herd. What
about the source of the outbreak? Do we know
how it started? In this case, they traced it
back to a single, apparently healthy cow brought
in from Texas. Just 13 days after introduction,
the first clinical case appeared, and then they
had new cases every single day for three straight
weeks. One animal, 777 infections. Let that sink
in. In frowling, it really makes you question
biosecurity protocols for introducing new animals
into a herd, doesn't it? Well, Bella, I'd say
a three -quarter million dollar loss should indeed
make one question their protocols. The study
showed seroprevalence testing, that's testing
for antibodies, revealed nearly 90 % of the 637
animals present during the clinical phase showed
positive antibodies. And even 17 of 42 dry cows
had antibodies, proving non -lactating animals
aren't safe from infection and can serve as viral
reservoirs. That lines up with what a California
producer experienced, right? James Wentworth
from Sunshine Dairy shared his experience with
this virus recently. That's right. Wentworth
reported a 5 % drop in milk production across
his herd about a week before any clinical signs
appeared. Their rumination monitoring system
flagged 27 cows with decreased activity, and
when they separated those animals, testing confirmed
H5N1 in 19 of them. Even with that early action,
their total losses still reached $175 ,000 across
their 500 -cow operation. So even with the latest
technology and quick action, the financial impacts
were still substantial. Exactly. Early detection
through technology helped limit spread, but the
economic damage remained significant. This is
why producers need to take this threat so seriously.
Let's talk more about the production impacts.
How badly does this virus affect milk yields?
If you think mastitis hits your milk, check hard.
Bird flu makes those losses look like pocket
change. Two weeks post -infection, affected cows
saw milk production collapse by nearly three
-fourths, that's 73%, plummeting from a respectable
35 kilograms daily to just 10 kilograms. To put
that in perspective for our listeners, how does
that compare to something like a severe case
of mastitis, which most dairy farmers have dealt
with? Let me break it down in a way that makes
the difference crystal clear. With severe mastitis,
you might see production losses up to 18 kilograms
per day. With H5N1, we're seeing 35 kilograms
per day lost at peak. Mastitis typically resolves
in two to three weeks, while H5N1 shows no recovery
even after 60 plus days. Total milk loss from
mastitis might be 100 to 200 kilograms, while
H5N1 is causing 901 .2 kilograms over just two
months. And financially, mastitis might cost
you $200 to $300 per case, while H5N1 is $950
per cow. And even more alarming is that the cows
never recovered their production, right? Correct.
Even after 60 days of observation, These animals
showed no return to pre -infection production
levels. The Cornell team's findings utterly contradict
industry messaging that suggested infected cows
typically lose 10 -20 % of production for just
7 -10 days. The reality is far grimmer and longer
lasting. Douglas, were there any early warning
signs that producers might look for? This is
where investing in rumination tags and parlor
automation pays off. The Cornell team documented
that both rumination time and milk production
began declining approximately five days before
clinical diagnosis was possible. Without sophisticated
monitoring systems tracking individual cows,
these early warning signs go completely unnoticed
until the disease has firmly established itself.
And what symptoms eventually appear? Listing,
Dr. Elisha Fry from Cornell observed that The
cows in Texas weren't producing as much milk
and milk consistency was very different. The
cows had mild respiratory signs, weren't eating
well, and some had short -term, low -grade fevers.
The main clinical signs include thickened, abnormal
milk, decreased feed intake, lethargy and low
-grade fever, mild respiratory signs, and occasionally
diarrhea. That sounds quite different from how
bird flu affects poultry, where mortality is
extremely high. That's an important distinction.
Unlike in poultry, where bird flu causes devastating
mortality, cattle generally recover from the
virus, but the production losses linger for months.
That's actually part of the problem. Cows don't
die, they just become long -term economic drains
on the operation. Let's talk dollars and cents.
What does this mean financially for the average
dairy operation? They calculated losses of approximately
$950 per affected cow, with total farm losses
reaching a staggering $737 ,500 over the observation
period. That's three -quarters of a million dollars
evaporating from one operation in just over two
months. And those numbers could actually be conservative
estimates, correct? Absolutely. The researchers
emphasize that the true cost could be substantially
higher when accounting for reproductive disruptions,
labor complications, medical interventions, enhanced
biosecurity measures, and other operational impacts.
These additional factors suggest many operations
could face seven -figure losses from severe outbreaks.
Practical. Let's break this down by herd size
to help our listeners understand what this might
mean for their specific operations. Here's the
math that no one wants to face, but everyone
needs to prepare for. With a small 200 -cow herd,
if 20 % get infected, that's 40 cows and $38
,000 in losses. With a medium 500 -cow operation,
that's 100 infected cows and $95 ,000 gone. A
1 ,000 -cow dairy would face $190 ,000 in losses.
And for an operation the size of the Cornell
Study herd, 3 ,900 cows, The losses reached $737
,500. That's enough to put some operations out
of business entirely. Are these losses typically
covered by farm insurance? Unfortunately, no.
Most standard farm insurance policies do not
specifically cover disease outbreaks, creating
a dangerous gap in protection. According to National
Cattlemen's Beef Association insurance specialists,
Traditional business interruption coverage typically
excludes infectious disease losses unless specifically
endorsed. According to dairy risk management
consultant David Cole from Virginia Tech, specialized
business interruption policies that cover disease
outbreaks do exist, but remain uncommon in the
dairy sector. Cole noted in a January 2025 industry
assessment, that fewer than 10 % of operations
have adequate protection against a severe outbreak
like H5N1. The USDA's Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service, or APHIS, offers limited
indemnity payments only for animals that must
be destroyed, not for production losses, leaving
most farms exposed to the full financial impact.
And to make matters worse, the research shows
it's often your best cows that get hit hardest,
right? That's one of the crueler aspects of this
disease. Your highest -producing multiparous
cows face the greatest risk of clinical disease.
The Cornell study documented significantly higher
vulnerability among these animals compared to
first lactation or dry cows. This pattern has
appeared in other studies as well, suggesting
a possible link between cumulative exposure to
the milking process and clinical disease susceptibility.
Is there a scientific explanation for why the
virus targets high producers? Scientists have
discovered that H5N1 has a predilection for the
udder due to specific receptors in the mammary
gland. In plain language, the virus doesn't just
happen to affect milk production. It deliberately
targets the udder because the mammary tissue
contains the exact cellular machinery the virus
needs to replicate efficiently. This explains
why your best milk producers get hit the hardest.
Their actively producing mammary tissue provides
the perfect environment for viral replication.
When it comes to H5N1, your best cows literally
have targets on their backs. Let's talk about
how this virus is changing. I understand new
strains have emerged since the initial outbreaks.
That's what's keeping scientists up at night.
The original dairy cattle outbreaks starting
in March 2024 were caused by H5N1 clade 2 .3
.4 .4B genotype B 3 .13. But on January 31, 2025,
the USDA confirmed the first detection of a different
strain, H5N1 clade 2 .3 .4 .4B genotype D 1 .1
in dairy cattle in Nevada. And that represents
a completely new spillover from wild birds. To
cattle, correct? Exactly. By early February,
Arizona had also reported D1 .1 in dairy cattle,
confirming the virus is actively finding new
pathways into herds. Dr. Diego Diel from Cornell
University warned that when there is spillover
of HPAI to a new species, especially to mammals,
it is always concerning as the virus may adapt
and gain the ability to transmit between animals.
I've heard about mutations in these virus strains.
What do those mean in practical terms for dairy
producers? The D1 .1 strain includes mutations
that help the virus infect mammals more efficiently.
Scientists have identified a PB2D701N mutation
in some D1 .1 sequences and a PB2E627K mutation
in a B3 .13 sequence. In simple terms, these
mutations are like installing a better key in
a lock. They allow the virus to unlock mammalian
cells more efficiently, leading to faster replication
and potentially more severe disease. Every time
the virus jumps to a new mammalian host, it gets
another opportunity to develop these adaptations.
How widespread is this in the U .S. dairy herd
now? As of January 3, 2025, The USDA had reported
influenza A H5N1 in 915 dairy herds across 16
states, with California bearing the brunt of
the crisis at 699 affected herds. This isn't
a minor issue. It's an industry -defining crisis
that's still expanding. How are these cases being
found? Is there a national strategy? The USDA's
National Milk Testing Strategy, which began in
December 2024, is actively identifying outbreaks.
The program collects raw milk samples from processing
facility silos across 45 states, allowing detection
of the virus before clinical signs appear in
many cases. The D1 .1 outbreaks in Nevada and
Arizona were both identified through this silo
testing program. Let's shift to consumer safety.
With so many infected herds, should consumers
be concerned about milk safety? While the production
situation looks bleak, there is one silver lining.
The FDA has conducted extensive testing of retail
dairy products and found them consistently negative
for viable H5N1 virus. Their sampling included
pasteurized milk, cheese, butter, ice cream,
and even aged raw milk cheese products, with
all pasteurized samples testing negative for
viable virus. Can you share some specifics about
that testing program? The FDA tested multiple
samples from a total of 464 retail dairy products,
including pasteurized milk, cheese, butter, and
ice cream. They also examined aged raw milk cheese
products included in 297 retail samples. All
tests used both quantitative reverse transcription
polymerase chain reaction, that's QRT -PCR, and
egg inoculation methods. Every single pasteurized
product tested negative. So pasteurization effectively
kills the virus. According to a University of
Wisconsin -Madison study, pasteurization is 99
.99 % effective in inactivating the H5N1 virus
in milk, supporting the belief that the commercial
milk supply remains safe. So while the virus
may be wrecking your production, at least it's
not triggering consumer panic about milk safety.
What about raw milk? I'm guessing the risk profile
is quite different there. Cornell University's
quantitative risk assessment paints a shocking
picture of the safety difference. The probability
of H5N1 infection per 240 milliliter serving
of pasteurized milk is 5 .68 times 10 to the
negative 15. That's practically zero. But for
farm store raw milk, it's 1 .13 times 10 to the
negative 3, or about .00113. That makes raw milk
198 trillion, 943 billion, 661 million, 972 times
riskier than pasteurized milk. That's not a typo.
The risk from raw milk is nearly 200 trillion
times higher. 200 trillion times higher risk.
I imagine regulatory agencies are responding
to this threat. They certainly are. Colorado
became the first state to mandate weekly testing
for all licensed dairy farms starting July 22,
2024. Though pasteurization has proven extremely
effective in inactivating the H5N1 virus, Colorado
leads the nation in human cases of H5N1, including
several new cases in poultry farm workers. The
FDA has also issued guidance letters to state,
territorial, and tribal partners offering recommendations
regarding the sale and consumption of raw milk
amid the outbreak. Additionally, they've launched
a new sampling assignment specifically for aged
raw cow's milk cheese that began December 23,
2024, with results expected by the end of March
2025. Let's turn to practical advice. What are
the industry's leading producers doing to protect
their herds? The Cornell findings make it clear.
This isn't just another disease to shrug off.
Smart dairy operators are implementing five key
countermeasures. First, they're locking down
biosecurity. Given that one infected animal introduced
from Texas triggered this entire disaster, reinforcing
isolation protocols for new arrivals is no longer
optional. Second, they're investing in monitoring
technology. Systems tracking rumination and individual
milk production can catch infections five days
before clinical signs appear, potentially enabling
earlier isolation of affected animals. Third,
they're implementing financial contingency planning,
with losses potentially exceeding $950 per affected
cow and lasting at least 60 days. Operations
need financial buffers to weather extended production
crashes. Fourth, they're enhancing surveillance
for multiparous cows. Since these animals face
higher risk, prioritizing monitoring of established
producers could enable faster interventions.
And fifth, they're looking beyond bulk tank metrics.
As the researchers noted, persistent milk loss
could be overlooked when only examining herd
-level milk production. Individual cow monitoring
is essential to capture the full economic impact.
Horizon Dairy in Wisconsin demonstrates what
effective monitoring can accomplish. When their
rumination monitoring system flagged a 12 % decrease
in rumination time across a group of 60 cows
in November 2024, they immediately isolated the
group and tested for H5N1. Their operations manager,
Sarah Jensen, explained that by catching it early,
we limited the spread to just 97 of our 2 ,800
cows. We estimate this early detection saved
us over $1 .2 million in potential losses. What
specific strategies did Horizon Dairy credit
for their success? Jensen credits their success
to three key factors. 24 -hour rumination monitoring
with automated alerts. a dedicated isolation
protocol that could be implemented within hours,
and regular staff training on H5N1 warning signs.
Their experience shows that while you might not
be able to completely prevent an outbreak, early
detection and rapid response can dramatically
reduce the financial impact. In Thackle, for
producers listening right now, what about their
milk buyers? Should they be having conversations
with them? Absolutely. With H5N1 spreading rapidly,
don't wait for your processor to come to you.
Ask these five questions now. What protocols
have you established for milk from confirmed
positive herds? Will you continue accepting milk
from my operation if we have confirmed cases?
What testing procedures are being implemented
beyond the USDA silo sampling? Is there any premium
or incentive program for operations implementing
enhanced biosecurity? And what documentation
will you require if my operation has confirmed
cases? Getting clarity on these issues before
an outbreak hits gives you valuable time to prepare
alternative strategies. Douglas, let's wrap up
with specific concrete steps that dairy producers
should take immediately. What actions should
be at the top of their list this week? Don't
wait another day. Take these five concrete actions
this week. First, implement a 21 -day isolation
protocol for all new animals based on the Cornell
study showing clinical signs appeared 13 days
after introduction with a full three -week spread
period. Visit the USDA APHS website at www .apis
.usda .gov slash animalhealth slash hpai slash
dairy for their updated isolation protocol template.
That's a great starting point. What else should
producers do immediately? Second, contact your
monitoring system provider about H5N1 early warning
settings. Most modern rumination monitoring systems
can be configured with specific alerts for the
pattern of decline seen in H5N1 cases. Ask specifically
about the five -day preclinical detection window
identified by Cornell. Third, review your insurance
coverage specifically for disease outbreaks.
Most standard policies exclude these losses.
Contact your agent about specialized business
interruption coverage with explicit infectious
disease inclusion. Fourth, develop a written
H5N1 response plan with your veterinarian. The
American Association of Bovine Practitioners
at www .abp .org has published a template specifically
for dairy operations. And fifth, Schedule H5N1
training for all employees. Even part -time staff
need to recognize early warning signs. The National
Milk Producers Federation offers free training
materials in multiple languages at www .mpf .org.
Today's episode has covered a lot of ground on
this emerging crisis. The Cornell University
study has documented devastating impacts from
H5N1 bird flu in dairy cattle. with infected
cows losing a staggering 900 kilograms of milk
over just two months and showing no signs of
recovery even after 60 days. Perhaps most alarming,
three -quarters of infected cows display no symptoms,
allowing silent spread throughout herds before
detection, with high -producing multiparous cows
at greatest risk. The economic reality is sobering.
Losses average $950 per affected cow. with one
operation losing $737 ,500, vastly exceeding
previous industry estimates of $100 to $200 per
case. The good news is that early detection is
possible through monitoring systems that can
identify decreased rumination and production
five days before clinical signs appear, potentially
saving operations millions through rapid isolation
protocols. Douglas, any final thoughts for our
listeners? Is your operation ready for the bird
flu reality? Because ready or not, it's coming.
With multiple virus strains now circulating in
U .S. dairy herds across 16 states, immediate
implementation of enhanced biosecurity, monitoring
technology, and response planning is critical
for operational survival. This isn't just another
disease challenge. It's potentially the biggest
financial threat your dairy operation will face
this decade. But with the strategies we've outlined
today, you can dramatically reduce your risk
and protect your herd and your bottom line. That's
all for this week's episode of the Bullvine Podcast.
Until next time, I'm Bella. And I'm Douglas,
reminding you to keep your cows healthy, your
milk flowing, and your biosecurity protocols
tight. See you next week.