WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your source

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for cutting -edge dairy industry insights and

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analysis. I'm Bella. In our 196th episode, we're

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tackling what might be the most significant economic

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shift for American dairy farms in a generation.

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And I'm Douglas. Thanks for joining us, folks.

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We've got an urgent topic today, the federal

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milk marketing order reforms coming June 1st,

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just 81 days from now. These changes will fundamentally

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reshape how your milk is valued and who profits

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from it. Some regions will win big, others could

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face devastating losses. That's right, Douglas.

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Today we're breaking down exactly how these reforms

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will impact your operation, region by region,

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with specific strategies you need to implement

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before this June deadline hits. Let's dive in.

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So Douglas, let's start with the basics. When

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we talk about federal milk marketing order reforms,

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or FMMO reforms, we're essentially talking about

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the rules that determine how milk is priced across

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America, correct? Exactly right, Bella. The federal

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milk marketing orders are essentially the rulebook

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that determines who gets what slice of the dairy

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revenue pie. And that pie is about to be cut

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very differently starting June 1st, 2025. And

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we have some critical dates our listeners should

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be aware of, right? Absolutely. The USDA published

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the final rule on January 17th of this year,

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after the producer referendum passed with the

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required two -thirds majority on December 31st,

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2024. The main changes kick in June 1st. That's

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81 days from today. But one critical component.

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The milk composition factor updates won't take

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effect until December 1, 2025. That six -month

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delay has significant financial implications

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we'll discuss later. This is all happening very

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quickly. Why are these reforms so significant

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compared to previous FMMO changes? Two reasons,

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Bella. First, this is the most substantial milk

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pricing overhaul in 25 years. Second, and more

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importantly, while some aspects benefit farmers,

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Like returning to the higher -of, class -one

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pricing formula, processors have secured make

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-allowance increases that could cost a typical

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100 -cow dairy approximately $56 ,000 annually.

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That's potentially devastating for many operations.

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Let's talk about that higher -of formula first.

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I know many producers consider this a victory,

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but what exactly does it mean for dairy farmers?

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The higher of formula determines how Class 1

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milk, that's fluid milk sold as a beverage, is

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priced. Back in the 2018 Farm Bill, they changed

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from using the higher of Class 3 or Class 4 prices

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to an average plus 74 cents formula. That experimental

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change backfired spectacularly during the pandemic.

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How badly did it backfire? Catastrophically.

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During market upheavals like we saw in 2020,

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That flawed formula transferred an estimated

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$725 million from farmers' pockets to processors'

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profit margins. That's money that should have

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gone to producers but didn't because of this

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formula change. So the return to the higher -of

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formula isn't really giving farmers something

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new. It's restoring what was taken away in 2018.

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Exactly. It's like if someone took $725 from

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your wallet, then handed you back $700, and expected

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you to thank them for their generosity. The return

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to the higher -up formula isn't some grand gift

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to dairy farmers. It's merely returning what

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was taken through that disastrous 2018 change.

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Did the USDA acknowledge this problem? Yes. Dana

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Cole. Deputy Administrator of the AMS Dairy Program

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actually admitted that the 2018 Farm Bill formula

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resulted in steep reductions in producer income

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as a result of market disruptions during the

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COVID -19 pandemic. The new order, according

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to Cole, gives you certainty as to what lies

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ahead. You know what's coming. Now let's talk

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about these make allowance increases that will

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impact producers negatively. What exactly are

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make allowances and why are they changing? Make

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allowances are essentially the margin built into

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pricing formulas to cover manufacturing costs.

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They're based on estimates of what it costs processors

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to make a pound of butter, cheese, whey, or dry

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milk powder. The bigger the make allowance, the

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lower the price the formula gives to producers.

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And how significant are these increases? They're

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substantial. Since 2008, Cheesemake allowances

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are increasing 25 .8%, from 20 .03 cents per

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pound to 25 .19 cents. Butter allowances increased

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32 .5%, from 17 .15 cents to 22 .72 cents. Nonfat

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dry milk sees the biggest jump, 42 .6%, going

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from 16 .78 cents to 23 .93 cents. And dry whey

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increases 34%, from 19 .91 cents to 26 .68 cents

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per pound. CERN, those are huge increases. What's

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the processor industry saying about this? Michael

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Dykes, president and CEO of the International

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Dairy Foods Association, called these important

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updates to elements of the FMMO system, including

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much -needed changes to make allowances. He also

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noted that, while the USDA process did not address

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all issues within the supply chain, particularly

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for Class I and organic milk processors, IDFA

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is optimistic that this process has laid the

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groundwork for a unified and forward -looking

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dairy industry. But farm organizations don't

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see it that way, do they? Serious, not at all.

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Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm

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Bureau Federation, strongly criticized the process.

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stating that USDA instead bases make allowances

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on an unscientific voluntary survey that allows

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processors to opt out, skewing the results in

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a direction that results in lower milk prices

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for farmers. Farm Bureau analysis suggests that

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changing the make allowance without a mandatory

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audited survey could lead to unjust penalties

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for dairy farmers, which directly defies the

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intended purpose of the FMMO system. You know,

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what would these make allowance increases have

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meant? if they had been implemented earlier.

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According to USDA analysis, if these changes

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had been implemented between 2019 and 2023, they

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would have reduced Class III prices by $0 .90

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per hundredweight and Class IV prices by $0 .85

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per hundredweight. Those reductions directly

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impact producer payments, particularly in regions

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with high manufacturing utilization. To the strength.

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This brings us to what might be the most important

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aspect for our listeners. how these changes will

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impact different regions. It sounds like there

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will be clear winners and losers based on geography.

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That's absolutely right, Bella. The nationwide

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referendum that approved these changes masked

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profound regional disparities in how these reforms

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will impact farm -level profitability. Let's

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break it down region by region. Let's start with

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the Northeast. I understand they might actually

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benefit from these changes. Correct. Northeast

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dairy producers face what industry analysts describe

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as a period of potential competitive advantage

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after years of challenging margins. The key factor

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is their higher Class I utilization, meaning

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more of their milk goes into fluid products.

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This makes them less vulnerable to the make allowance

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increases, which primarily affect manufacturing

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classes. According to Farm Bureau analysis, Northeast

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producers stand to benefit significantly from

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the reforms. There's also new processing capacity

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coming online in that region, right? Yes, and

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that timing couldn't be better. New processing

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investments in New York and Pennsylvania create

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a unique window of opportunity. Before Northeast

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producers break ground on expansion plans, though,

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they should ensure they're extracting maximum

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value from their existing herds through optimized

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nutrition, genetics, and management practices

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focused on component production efficiency. What

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about upper Midwest producers? I imagine Wisconsin

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and Minnesota operations are viewing these changes

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differently. The outlook is much more concerning

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there. Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative directly

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acknowledges that the reforms would slightly

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decrease the minimum regulated price private

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milk buyers have to pay to pooled milk producers

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in the upper Midwest order. This regional disadvantage

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stems from several technical aspects of the reform

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package, particularly how components are valued.

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The decision to update skim milk composition

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factors without corresponding increases in butterfat

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factors creates particular complications for

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upper Midwest producers who typically emphasize

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butterfat production. According to industry analysis,

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These adjustments could significantly impact

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the upper Midwest pool value. It threatens the

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region's competitive position and demands immediate

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adaptive strategies. And what's happening with

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Western operations? California, the Southwest,

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and Pacific Northwest? They face the most significant

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challenges. According to Farm Bureau analysis,

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California would experience a $94 million reduction

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in pool value, while the Southwest would see

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a $72 million decrease. These regional disadvantages

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stem from the higher proportion of milk utilized

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in Class III and IV manufacturing in these areas.

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With make allowance increases directly reducing

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the value of milk used in these classes, Western

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producers face the most dramatic negative impacts.

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That's a staggering regional disparity. What

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about central and midiest regions? They're actually

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positioned to see modest price improvements.

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According to industry analysis, the reforms would

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slightly increase the price to producers in the

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central and midiest orders. This advantage stems

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from their geographic proximity to major population

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centers and fluid milk markets, giving them a

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competitive advantage under the reformed pricing

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structure. Let's shift gears to what producers

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can do right now. With implementation just 81

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days away, what strategies should forward -thinking

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dairy farmers be implementing? The strategies

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vary dramatically by region, Bella. Northeast

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producers should focus on maximizing component

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production while potentially exploring strategic

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expansion due to their favorable positioning.

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They should be thinking about how to capitalize

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on what industry analysts call a period of potential

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competitive advantage. What about upper Midwest

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producers facing decreased regulated minimum

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prices? They need to pursue enhanced over -order

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premium negotiations immediately. With concerns

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about potential pool value losses, these producers

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must identify alternate revenue streams. According

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to Mark Stevenson, a noted dairy policy expert,

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To the extent that co -ops are not losing money

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at these higher make allowances, that wouldn't

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be coming off as a deduction, potentially. And

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to the extent that you have more proprietary

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firms covering their make allowances, they may

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be able to put some of those overorder premiums

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back into place. They face the most significant

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challenges and need to evaluate whether their

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current scale and efficiency can overcome these

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regulatory disadvantages. Some may need to consider

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more dramatic business model adjustments. Cost

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containment will be absolutely critical, as will

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exploring alternative marketing arrangements.

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You mentioned component production earlier. There

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are some significant changes to milk composition

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factors coming in December, right? Yes, but not

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until December 1st, 2025, six months after the

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main implementation date. True protein will be

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updated from 3 .1 % to 3 .3%, other solids from

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5 .9 % to 6 .0%, and nonfat solids from 9 .0

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% to 9 .3%. What's the impact of these changes?

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These adjustments will slightly increase revenue

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from beverage, class 1, milk sales to pooled

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producers, creating incentives to optimize component

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production. The six -month delay in implementation

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means producers won't see this benefit until

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December. Industry analysis suggests this delay

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could cost dairy farmers more than $100 million

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during the first six months alone. Helia, but

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there's no change to butterfat standards. That's

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one of the most problematic aspects. USDA decided

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against updating butterfat solids factors despite

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growth in milk butterfat content in recent years.

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This imbalanced approach creates new strategic

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considerations for feeding and breeding programs,

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particularly for operations that have historically

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emphasized butterfat production. Let's talk about

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risk management. How will these changes impact

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producers' hedging programs? The structural changes

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to pricing formulas necessitate an immediate

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review of risk management strategies. Industry

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experts have specifically cautioned about complications

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for dairy producers' hedging programs. Producers

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utilizing Class III milk futures or equivalent

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USDA insurance products may face increased exposure

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to butterfat price risk under the new system.

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What should producers be doing right now to prepare?

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Progressive operations are already consulting

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with risk management specialists to recalibrate

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their hedging programs, particularly regarding

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the alignment between component production, forward

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contracting practices, and futures positions.

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The transition period between now and full implementation

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presents a critical window for adjusting these

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strategies. Absolutely. Removing 500 -pound barrel

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cheddar cheese from pricing calculations means

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Class III pricing will be based solely on 40

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-pound block prices. According to industry analysis,

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industry advocates of this removal believe relying

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solely on 40 -pound block cheddar cheese to set

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the monthly announced cheese price will reduce

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the volatility of cheese prices. However, this

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change requires careful reconsideration of existing

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risk management approaches. We've covered a lot

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of ground today, Douglas. As we wrap up, what

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are the key takeaways dairy producers should

00:15:31.730 --> 00:15:36.009
remember about these FMMO reforms? Four critical

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points, Bella. First, processor advantage. Make

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allowances are surging 25 to 42 percent, potentially

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costing farmers $56 ,000 annually per 100 cows.

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Second, regional impacts vary dramatically. Northeast

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operations gain from high Class I utilization.

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while Midwest and California operations face

00:15:57.600 --> 00:16:01.580
potential losses exceeding $94 million. Third,

00:16:01.799 --> 00:16:04.600
the restored higher -of formula recovers what

00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:07.019
was essentially stolen from farmers by that flawed

00:16:07.019 --> 00:16:10.960
2018 policy change. And fourth, the implementation

00:16:10.960 --> 00:16:14.700
countdown. Just 81 days remain to renegotiate

00:16:14.700 --> 00:16:17.559
premiums, adjust hedging strategies, and optimize

00:16:17.559 --> 00:16:20.679
component production. It sounds like the coming

00:16:20.679 --> 00:16:23.450
months. will be critical for dairy operations

00:16:23.450 --> 00:16:27.230
across America. What's your final advice to our

00:16:27.230 --> 00:16:30.250
listeners? Your competitors aren't waiting for

00:16:30.250 --> 00:16:33.350
perfect reforms. They're adapting to what's coming.

00:16:33.950 --> 00:16:36.789
The question is whether your operation is similarly

00:16:36.789 --> 00:16:39.269
prepared for dairy's new economic landscape.

00:16:39.669 --> 00:16:42.250
While these changes will create market stability,

00:16:42.669 --> 00:16:45.289
that stability will benefit some regions far

00:16:45.289 --> 00:16:48.230
more than others. Make your adaptation strategy

00:16:48.230 --> 00:16:52.169
a top priority today. not 80 days from now when

00:16:52.169 --> 00:16:54.649
it's too late. Thank you, Douglas, for that expert

00:16:54.649 --> 00:16:56.870
analysis. And thank you to our listeners for

00:16:56.870 --> 00:16:59.210
joining us for this critical discussion. For

00:16:59.210 --> 00:17:02.269
more dairy industry insights and analysis, visit

00:17:02.269 --> 00:17:06.970
www .thebullvine .com. Until next time, I'm Bella.

00:17:07.829 --> 00:17:10.410
And I'm Douglas. Thanks for listening to The

00:17:10.410 --> 00:17:11.069
Bullvine Podcast.
