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Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast.

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I'm Bella and I'm joined today by my co-host Douglas.

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Today we're tackling a question that's been on my mind with the upcoming April 20-25 genetic

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evaluation updates.

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Can genomic selection eliminate luck in dairy breeding?

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Thanks Bella.

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It's a fascinating topic, especially as we approach these significant changes to the

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evaluation system.

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We'll be exploring how some of Holstein's most influential bloodlines emerged not from

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careful planning, but from happy accidents, what I like to call lucky breaks.

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We'll also discuss what current research tells us about the limitations of genomic

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selection and how today's breeders can balance scientific precision with openness to serendipity.

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Douglas, whenever I visit dairy farms these days, the conversation inevitably turns to

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genomic selection, advanced mating programs, and all these impressive reproductive technologies.

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It seems like we're in an era where science has taken over breeding decisions.

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You're right, Bella.

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The industry has been transformed by these tools.

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And with the April 20-25 genetic evaluation updates approaching, featuring revised lifetime

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merit indices, and that shift to the 2020 genetic base, some folks might think we've

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removed chance from the equation entirely.

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I've been reading the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding announcements.

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They're projecting some major decreases in predicted transmitting ability values, right?

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Negative 750 pounds of milk, negative 45 pounds of fat, and negative 30 pounds of protein

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for Holsteins.

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That sounds concerning at first glance.

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Chuck Sattler from Select Sires explained, the 2025 base change is bigger than previous

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adjustments, but this is good news.

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It means that our cows are improving faster than ever.

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What's happening is that the entire breed is making such rapid progress that we need

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to recalibrate our measurement scale.

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So despite all this precision, I have to ask, have we really eliminated luck from breeding

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or have we just gotten better at working with it?

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That's the million dollar question, Bella.

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And to answer it, we need to look at both what science tells us and what history has

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shown us.

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Let me share something fascinating from recent research from the National Center for Biotechnology

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Information.

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Even our most advanced genomic prediction tools show only about 75% reliability for

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production traits.

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Wait, only 75%?

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That means a full quarter of what makes a cow productive remains outside our ability

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to predict.

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Exactly.

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And this 75% reliability has been consistent for years.

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A 2011 study in the Journal of Dairy Science noted this level is adequate for marketing

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semen of two-year-old bulls, but it's far from perfect.

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The primary benefit has been a shortened generation interval that increases the rate of genetic

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improvement, not perfect prediction.

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So we should be thinking about that 25% gap whenever we make breeding decisions.

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It's not just a small margin of error.

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It's a significant space where luck, chance, and unexplained genetic interactions still

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play a major role.

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Absolutely.

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Now, to really understand how luck has shaped our breed, let's look at some remarkable

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historical examples.

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I've heard there are some amazing stories about chance events that created legendary

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Holstein bloodlines.

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Can you share some of these with our listeners?

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I'd love to.

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I've spent decades in this industry, and these stories never cease to amaze me.

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Let's start with what I call the case of the missing telephone.

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The missing telephone.

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This sounds intriguing.

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Back in the early 1900s, A.J.

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Lashbrook and his brother sold some inherited shares from their grandfather's estate for

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$250 to invest in Holstein cattle.

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Their father visited Springbrook Farm and spotted three beautiful heifer calves priced

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at $75 each.

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$75 each.

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That's incredible compared to today's prices.

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Yes, but here's where it gets interesting.

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The Lashbrooks didn't have a telephone to confirm the purchase immediately.

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According to the historical record, they couldn't skip school that day, so their father had

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to return the next day.

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When he arrived, he found that the calves had already been sold to George Miller.

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Oh no, talk about bad timing.

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It turns out that Schilling, the Springbrook farm manager, had mentioned the calves to

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the owner of the local feed mill who told Miller.

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And one of those calves was Springbrook best Burke.

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Miller raised her, bred her to Sir Johanna Canary DeKal, and later sold her to F.C. Schroeder

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of Moorhead, Minnesota.

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So what happened to this cow after she went to Schroeder's farm?

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Under Schroeder's ownership, best Burke and her daughter made remarkable production records

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when mated to Sir Peter Chi Ormsby Mercedes.

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Years later, Lashbrook reflected, and I love this quote, as I look back now, it was indeed

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fortunate that we did not have a telephone and that those calves never came to our farm.

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We were only small breeders and probably never would have developed those cows.

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He aced all.

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So he actually thought it was better that they missed out on buying her.

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Yes, because here's the kicker.

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Without that missing telephone, there would have been no Osborne Dale Ivanhoe, no Round

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Oak Rag Apple Elevation, no Hanover Hill Starbuck, and no Mattawaska Aerostar.

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Can you imagine modern Holstein genetics without those bulls?

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That's incredible.

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One missing telephone call reshaped the entire breed.

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Do you have more examples like this?

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Absolutely.

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Let me tell you about the luckiest injured leg in Holstein history.

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This sounds like another chance event with big consequences.

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F.C. Whitney had purchased a bull named Montvic Chieftain from T.B. McCauley.

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But when they were loading the bull onto the truck, Chieftain slipped and injured his leg.

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Oh, no poor bull.

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But here's where luck steps in.

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McCauley called Whitney and offered him Montvic Pathfinder for the same price.

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Now, Pathfinder wasn't what you'd call handsome.

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Whitney actually described him as as homely a brute as a man ever saw.

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Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

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No, but his pedigree was exceptional with multiple All-American winners.

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Many claimed he possessed the best pedigree ever written, including four All-American

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wins to his credit, including Aged Cow in 1935 and 1936.

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So Whitney decided to take a chance on this ugly duckling.

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Exactly.

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At his farm in New York, Pathfinder sired Montvic Pathfinder Prize Taker.

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This bull was later purchased by Charles Hope for Round Oak Farm.

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And through this lineage emerged Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation, one of the most influential

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Holstein sires of all time.

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So if Chieftain hadn't injured his leg, we might never have had elevation.

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That's right.

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One sore leg changed the entire trajectory of Holstein genetics.

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These stories are fascinating, Douglas.

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But I'm curious, what does the current research tell us about genomic selection and its limitations?

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A 2020 study published by the National Center for Biotechnology Information found something

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remarkable.

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Inbreeding can significantly impact how well genomics works as a prediction tool.

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How so?

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The study examined high-producing first lactation dairy cows and found that individuals with

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an inbreeding index between 2.5 and 5.0 showed up to a two-fold increase in negative correlations

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between genomic predictions and actual performance.

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In simpler terms, what does that mean for farmers?

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It means that even with perfect genomic tools, factors like inbreeding can significantly

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reduce the accuracy of our predictions.

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Your carefully selected mating might produce unexpected results, positive or negative,

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based on genetic interactions our current models simply can't predict.

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It sounds like genomics gives us a much better map, but the territory still has unexplored

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areas.

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That's an excellent metaphor, Bella.

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Let me share two more historical examples that highlight how unexpected events created

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breeding success.

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Here's a story that always makes me smile.

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Back in September 1942, Doug Dutton had visitors.

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Jack Fraser, Elgin Armstrong, and Cliff Chant had stopped by his farm to scout some cows

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for Armstrong's ABC farm.

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Okay, setting the scene.

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What happened?

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When they arrived, Dutton was walking up from the stable in his barn clothes and said, wait

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a minute while I change my clothes.

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While he went to the house, his visitors wandered down to the barn.

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And I'm guessing they saw something important while he was changing.

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Exactly.

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In a box stall getting ready to calve was a big white cow named Temple Farm May.

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Armstrong was impressed and bought her on the spot for $400.

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And this cow turned out to be special?

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She gave birth to ABC Inca May, who became an all Canadian four-year-old in 1947 with

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an incredible production record.

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24,141 pounds of milk, 4.67% butterfat, and 1,128 pounds of fat.

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Those are remarkable numbers, especially for that era.

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But her greatest achievement was as the dam of ABC reflection sovereign, who many claim

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was the best bull the breed has produced.

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If Dutton hadn't needed to change his clothes that day, or if the visitors had arrived at

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a different time, they might never have noticed Temple Farm May.

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One mazed, onege of clothes altered Holstein history forever.

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These stories are incredible, Douglas.

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I know many of our listeners have experienced this situation.

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You call your AI technician with the perfect mating plan and they tell you they're out

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of that bull semen.

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Has this kind of situation ever created a lucky break in breeding history?

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Absolutely.

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One of the best examples involves a cow named Tiny Supreme Dickhole.

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Aylmer Petherick had chosen Pabst Walker for Tiny's next mating, but when the inseminator

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arrived he wasn't carrying Walker's semen.

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So what happened?

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Petherick simply asked, what else have you got?

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And settled on Haynescrest Sovereign Tycoon instead.

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The resulting calf was Almerson Sovereign Supreme, who went on to be classified Excellent

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and received Class Extra rating, becoming one of the most respected bulls in Canadian

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history.

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He was highly regarded by leading breeders, including Pete Heffering and Dave Hauck.

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What a great example of making the best of what's available.

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And this still happens today.

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With the April 2025 genetic base change coming up, we're going to see major bull re-rankings.

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According to official CDCB announcements, the Net Merit Dollar Index is getting a serious

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makeover.

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Increased emphasis on butterfat with a 13% higher weighting, greater focus on feed efficiency

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with a 41% higher combined impact, and doubled weighting for cow livability.

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So your backup choice today might create tomorrow's influential bloodline, just like in the

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last few years.

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And we're going to see a lot of these historical examples.

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Exactly.

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All those genomic tools might guide your primary selections, but chance still decides whether

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those straws are actually in your AI tank when you need them.

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Let's talk more about the specific limitations of genomic selection.

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When I talk with farmers, many believe these tools can predict everything about a calf's

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potential.

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That's a common misconception, Bella.

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The general rule of dairy science, current reliability percentages for genomically tested

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young animals typically hover between 65 and 75% for production traits, and even lower for

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health and fertility traits.

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So that means 25 to 35% of a cow's genetic potential remains completely unpredictable

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through our current genomic models.

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That's right.

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And there are four main factors creating this uncertainty.

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What are they?

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First, gene interactions.

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Genomic models struggle to capture how genes influence each other.

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The same marker might perform differently depending on the overall genetic background.

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Second, environmental influences.

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How genes express themselves varies wildly in different environments.

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I've seen genetically identical cows perform completely differently on neighboring farms.

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That makes sense.

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What are the other factors?

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Third is genetic recombination.

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Even with identical parents, each calf gets a unique genetic package.

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It's like shuffling a deck of cards.

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You never deal the same hand twice.

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And fourth, new mutations.

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Sometimes genetic changes appear that weren't present in either parent, creating traits

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nobody predicted.

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So even with our best technology, there's still a significant element of unpredictability

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in breeding outcomes.

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Exactly.

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This isn't to diminish the value of genomic selection.

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It's revolutionized our industry.

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But understanding its limitations helps us maintain a realistic approach to breeding

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decisions.

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I'd like to shift to the financial side of things, Douglas.

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Despite these limitations, is genomic testing still a good investment for dairy farmers?

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Absolutely, Bella.

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Recent industry analyses suggest that genomic testing of heifers delivers approximately

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$75 to $200 in additional lifetime profit per animal tested, primarily through improved

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selection decisions and optimized heifer inventory management.

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That's a pretty wide range from $75 to $200.

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What factors influence where a farm might fall on that spectrum?

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Several key factors come into play.

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Current replacement costs in your area, your herd's genetic level relative to the breed,

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how aggressively you cull based on genomic results, and whether you use sexed or beef

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semen strategically.

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So despite the uncertainty we've discussed, the ROI on genomic testing is still solidly

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positive.

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Yes, but I should emphasize that the unpredictable 25 to 30% of genetic potential means some

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animals will significantly underperform or overperform their genomic predictions.

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This variability creates both risk and opportunity.

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Sometimes your lowest ranked genomic heifer produces your best cow.

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Ask any experienced breeder and they'll have at least one story like this.

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As we approach the April 2025 genetic evaluation updates, what specific changes should our

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listeners be preparing for?

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According to the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding, the April 2025 updates include two significant

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changes, revised lifetime merit indices and a genetic base change.

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The genetic base will shift to cows born in 2020, which is why we're seeing those major

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PTA decreases for Holsteins that you mentioned earlier.

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So what specific changes to the net merit index should farmers be aware of?

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Based on CDCB and USDA ARS reports, the net merit dollar index is getting a significant

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makeover.

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There's increased emphasis on butterfat.

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The weight for fat in net merit dollars has increased from 28.6 to 31.8, while protein

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weight has actually decreased from 19.6 to 13.

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It's a C. That's a pretty substantial shift.

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What's driving these changes?

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According to the USDA Agricultural Research Service, these adjustments reflect evolving

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market demands and research advancements.

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There's also an enhanced focus on feed efficiency, component-based milk pricing and fertility.

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The calculations show a correlation of 0.992 between the April 2025 and current formulas,

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which means we shouldn't see major re-ranking for most animals.

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So these changes might actually create opportunities to spot hidden gems that our current systems

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might be undervaluing.

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Exactly.

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This re-ranking creates a golden opportunity to identify animals that might have been overlooked

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under the current system, but will shine under the new indices.

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So with all this in mind, what strategies would you recommend to our listeners as they

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prepare for the April 2025 genetic evaluations update?

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I have four key recommendations based on my decades in the industry and the latest information

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from CDCB and USDA.

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First, get familiar with the changes.

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Take time to understand the revised lifetime merit indices and that base change shift to

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cows born in 2020.

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According to ABS Global, the base change highlights that genetic progress continues to be made

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since this is the most progress between a base change ever.

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Your genetic selection decisions should remain focused on your milk market, facility, management

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system and operational goals.

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That makes sense.

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Staying informed is always the first step.

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Second, don't put all your eggs in one genomic basket.

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I've noticed the industry focusing on an increasingly narrow range of elite genetics.

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Consider incorporating some differently bred Holstein cattle that offer unique genetic

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contributions.

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Genetic diversity provides more opportunities for those unexpected combinations that sometimes

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create magic.

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So maintaining genetic diversity isn't just good for the breed.

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It could also benefit individual farmers by increasing their chances of a lucky break.

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Exactly.

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Third, build flexibility into your program.

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What's your plan B when your first choice matings aren't possible?

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Those backup plans sometimes produce better results than the original.

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Avoid getting trapped in the mindset that there's only one right mating for each animal.

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And your fourth recommendation.

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Trust your eyes, not just the numbers.

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While genomic testing provides incredibly valuable data, don't lose that breeder's

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instinct.

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The best operations I visit combine quantitative assessment with qualitative judgment.

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They use both the printout and that indefinable cow sense.

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That's excellent advice, Douglas.

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It's about finding the right balance between scientific precision and openness to serendipity.

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We've covered so much ground today.

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We've seen how chance events like the missing telephone that led to Springbrook, Best Berk

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sale, Montvic Chieftain's injured leg that brought Pathfinder to America, and a simple

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change of clothes that created ABC Reflection Sovereign have shaped Holstein history in

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profound ways.

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We've also looked at current research showing that even with genomic selection, 25 to 35%

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of genetic potential remains unpredictable.

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And we've discussed practical strategies for breeders to navigate the upcoming April 2025

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genetic evaluation updates.

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If there's one thing I hope our listeners take away from today's discussion, it's this.

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Use every scientific tool at your disposal, but keep your eyes open for those unexpected

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opportunities that genomics can't predict.

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The history of Holstein breeding shows us that luck creates opportunities, but only

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those with the knowledge and vision to recognize potential can transform those opportunities

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into lasting genetic contributions.

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The genetics have not changed, and the animals themselves have not changed.

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What has changed is how we view an animal's genetic superiority.

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Healing, we'd love to hear your lucky break breeding story.

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Has a random breeding decision or unexpected mating ever produced something extraordinary

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in your herd?

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Share your story with us on the Bullvine website or tag us on social media with hashtag B-U-L-L-V-I-N

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lucky breaks.

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Until next time, keep one eye on the data and the other open to the possibilities that

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might just lead to your herd's next great success story.

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Thanks for listening to the Bullvine Podcast.

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We'll see you next time.