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Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your number one source for dairy industry insights and

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straight talk.

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I'm Bella and alongside me is the one and only Douglas.

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Today we're diving into a topic that's keeping dairy farmers up at night, the historic heifer

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shortage facing U.S. dairy and what it means for the future of your milking herd.

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Thanks Bella.

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And folks, this isn't just another market fluctuation we're talking about here.

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We're looking at heifer inventories at a 47-year low according to the latest USDA data, springing

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heifer prices soaring past $4,000 and 70% of dairies now breeding to beef bulls.

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This perfect storm has created what I'm calling a breed now, regret later scenario that could

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reshape American dairy for decades.

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That's right Douglas.

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Today we'll break down exactly how we got here, what's happening on farms across different

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regions and most importantly, practical strategies to navigate this crisis.

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We'll cover everything from beef cross breeding economics to the unexpected impact of HPAI

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on fertility and even dive into how policy decisions are affecting your bottom line.

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So grab your coffee, pull up a chair in the milking parlor and let's dive into the trenches

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of America's dairy heifer crisis.

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Douglas, let's start with the raw numbers here.

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Just how bad is this heifer shortage we're facing?

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Bella, I don't use the word crisis lightly, but that's exactly what we're facing.

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According to the USDA's January report, we're down to just 3.914 million heifers nationwide.

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That's a drop of nearly 1% in a single year, taking us back to 1978 levels.

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1978?

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That's before many of our listeners were even born.

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And what about those springer prices you mentioned?

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They're through the roof.

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We're seeing springing heifers, those pregnant heifers ready to calve, fetching over $4,000

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a head in what I can only describe as desperate bidding wars.

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I was at the Lancaster auction last month and watched a group of 10 average quality

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springers go for $4,300 each.

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The buyer told me it was still cheaper than going out of business.

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It seems like we're caught in a vicious cycle here.

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When I was researching for today's episode, I came across a quote from a Wisconsin dairy

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farmer named Sarah Klecker that really stuck with me.

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She said they're burning through generations of genetics to pay the feed bill.

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Can you explain what she meant by that?

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That's exactly right, Bella.

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What Sarah was describing is the fundamental dilemma facing dairy farmers today.

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Many producers are breeding their dairy cows to beef bulls, particularly Angus, because

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those beef cross calves can sell for over $1,200 each.

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That's quick cash to pay bills today, but it means fewer dairy replacement heifers for

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tomorrow.

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So essentially, farmers are trading their future milking herds for immediate cash flow.

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That's the harsh reality.

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Sarah's situation is the perfect example.

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She told me she sold 80% of her calves to Angus bulls last year.

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It helped her clear some debts, but then she got, in her words, sucker punched when she

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needed to buy replacements at $3,800 a head.

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She described it as feeling like trading my pickup for a bicycle.

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How widespread is this beef cross breeding practice?

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The latest data shows about 70% of US dairies are now playing what I call this high stakes

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breeding roulette.

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And it's not just small operations.

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We're seeing this across all farm sizes.

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So we've got historic low heifer numbers, sky high replacement costs, and most farms

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are still breeding to beef.

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This sounds unsustainable.

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That's exactly the point, Bella.

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This isn't just a shortage.

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It's a high stakes reshuffle of an entire industry's future.

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The big question is, will farmers pivot fast enough to avoid milking herd collapse, or

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will the next decade's dairy aisles run dry?

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Let's dig deeper into this beef dairy breeding trend, Douglas.

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I know our listeners have been bombarded with headlines about beef cross calves outselling

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used cars, but what's the real story behind what's happening in the breeding barn?

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Let me cut through all the noise and break this down real simple.

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There are three main breeding strategies happening on dairy farms today.

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First, about 63% of larger operations are using sex semen on their top performing cows.

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Think the top 25% of the herd.

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That's smart because it gives you more heifer calves from your best genetics.

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For listeners who might not be familiar, sexed semen technology allows farmers to significantly

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increase the odds of getting female calves up to 90% chance versus the normal 50-50 split,

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right?

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Exactly right, Bella.

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Then for the middle and lower tier cows, farmers are using beef bulls, mostly Angus or Wagyu,

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which brings us to strategy number two.

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These beef cross calves can bring $300 to $1,000 more per calf than a straight Holstein.

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That math is pretty compelling when margins are tight.

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And what's the third strategy?

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The third piece is what I call retention roulette.

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Nationwide, we're only keeping about 28% of heifers compared to 52% a decade ago.

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That's like betting half your poker chips every hand.

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It might work out, but it's risky long term.

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Those numbers are alarming.

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So what happens when a farm needs replacements and their heifer pipeline is running dry?

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That's the million dollar question, or should I say the $4,000 per springer question.

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Some farms are getting creative.

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Take Ohio's HeiferTech service.

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For $75 per calf, they'll genomic test your heifers with 92% accuracy.

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That means you know by week two if that calf has a future as a productive dairy cow or

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if it's better destined for the feedlot.

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Harry, that's fascinating.

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$75 to potentially save thousands in raising a less productive animal.

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What other solutions are farms finding?

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Another approach comes from Kansas, where feedlots are raising heifers at about two

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and a half pounds per day for just $2.75 daily.

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That's significantly cheaper than raising them on farm for many producers.

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So the successful operations are using a three-pronged approach.

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Sexed semen for the top cows, beef bulls for the rest, and early genomic testing to make

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smarter decisions about which calves to keep.

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That's right, Bella.

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I call it the don't be a statistic checklist.

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Test early with genomics and cull hard.

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Tear your herd.

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Sexed semen for your MVPs, beef bulls for the bench warmers.

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And most importantly, watch your rear view mirror.

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If your retention drops below 30%, you're flirting with a cliff edge in terms of future

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replacements.

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Douglas, while researching for this episode, I was surprised to learn that highly pathogenic

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avian influenza, HPAI, is playing a significant role in this heifer crisis.

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Most of our listeners probably think of it as a poultry disease, but it's affecting

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cattle too, right?

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That's right, Bella.

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This isn't just a chicken problem anymore.

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HPAI has been moonlighting as a heifer wrecking ball, and the damage is significant.

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Texas A&M researchers tracked heifers that survived last year's outbreak, and what they

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found is truly concerning.

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What did their research show?

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Even the heifers that recovered produced 18% less milk in their first lactation.

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18%.

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Think about that.

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If you're expecting 24,000 pounds of milk from a first lactation animal, you're losing

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over 4,000 pounds of production.

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At current milk prices, that's real money walking out the door.

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That's a huge impact.

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Are there other effects besides milk production?

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It gets worse.

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Dr. Emily Torres, who led the study, found that 9% of exposed heifers had ovarian scarring.

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She described them as walking infertility time bombs.

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This virus doesn't just affect current production.

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It compromises future reproductive potential.

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Has this affected some regions more than others?

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Absolutely.

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HPAI didn't play fair across the country.

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California took the biggest hit with a 15% drop in conception rates.

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Their heifers also reached puberty 22 days later than normal.

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That's three extra weeks of feed costs before they can even be bred.

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And what about other regions?

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The Midwest fared a bit better with only, and I use that term loosely, 8% fewer pregnancies

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and heifers showing up 14 days late to breeding.

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The Southwest split the difference with 12% fewer conceptions and 18-day delays.

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And around 19% more cows were culled in that region due to reproductive issues.

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What can farmers do to mitigate these HPAI impacts?

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First, test.

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Don't guess.

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Screen every replacement candidate for viral residues.

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It costs about $12 per test, certainly cheaper than raising a compromised heifer for two

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years.

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Second, make tough culling decisions.

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If testing shows ovarian scarring, that animal should probably head to the burger line.

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Harsh?

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Maybe.

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Smart?

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Absolutely.

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And I imagine farms need to adjust their breeding programs to account for these lower conception

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rates.

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Exactly right.

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If HPAI clipped your conception rates, you need to bump your breeding targets by 10-15%.

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It's like buying insurance.

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You're protecting your future milking herd by breeding more animals today.

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This crisis isn't hitting all regions equally.

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Is it, Douglas?

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Let's take our listeners on a road trip across America's dairy regions to understand the

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different challenges they're facing.

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You're right, Bella.

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Where your farm is located could mean the difference between bankruptcy and boom times

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these days.

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Let's start with California, where water costs more than heifers.

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And that's not a joke.

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I've heard California's drought conditions have been particularly challenging for dairy.

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What's happening there?

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Picture this.

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Central Valley 2025.

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Dust swirls around for sale signs on dried up alfalfa fields.

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California dairies aren't just battling HPAI.

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They're fighting water bills of $1,200 per acre foot, which is up 30% since 2023.

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Those water costs are staggering.

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How is this affecting their dairy production?

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The numbers tell the story.

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Milk production is down 6.8% last year.

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They've culled about 62,000 cows, thanks in part to bird flu.

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And here's what's really telling.

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Some operations are so desperate, they're hauling in Idaho heifers at $3,500 per head.

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They're importing heifers from Idaho?

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That seems extreme.

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It is, but it shows how desperate the situation has become.

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I spoke to a manager near Fresno who swapped 200 homegrown heifers for 150 Idaho imports.

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He told me it was cheaper than drilling another well.

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But here's the kicker.

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Those Idaho girls aren't bred for 110 degree heat.

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He described it as running a bovine sauna experiment.

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Why would farms stay in California with those challenges?

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Good question.

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Some point to tax breaks, others to nostalgia or loyalty to the Stockton cheese plant.

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But the exodus is real and it's accelerating.

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Let's head east to Texas.

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I understand they're taking a completely different approach.

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Texas dairies are expanding like they've got a death wish, or 7.5% herd growth in 2024,

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depending on how you look at it.

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Their approach has three key components.

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First, they're heavily investing in Jersey Crosses, about 40% of new calves, because Holsteen

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struggled in that August heat.

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And what are they doing with their beef cross calves?

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That's the second part of their strategy.

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About 72% of their beef cross calves head south to Mexico.

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But here's where it gets risky.

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They're ignoring Mexico's 25% tariff threat on $480 million of beef exports.

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That sounds incredibly risky.

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What happens if Mexico implements those tariffs?

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Texas dairies could bleed $120 million overnight if Mexico pulls that trigger.

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When I asked an Amarillo producer about this risk, he drawled, we're betting on AMLO getting

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voted out.

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That's quite a gamble with your farm's future.

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And finally, what about the traditional dairy heartland, the Midwest?

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The Midwest is running what I call geriatric cows and company.

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They've got an average of 3.2 lactations per cow.

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Translation, your grandma's favorite milk cow is still pumping out butter fat, but older

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cows mean slower rebounds when you need to grow your herd.

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How are Midwest farms adapting to the heifer shortage?

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They're getting creative with co-ops.

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Dairy Herd Minnesota, that's H-E-A-R-D, is a cooperative sharing 500 springers across 12 farms, almost like a bovine timeshare.

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One Wisconsin participant described it to me as like Tinder for heifers.

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Farm A needs 50 heifers now for expansion.

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Farm B has 60 extras after culling.

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And the co-op brokers the swap for $35 per day per head.

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So your zip code really does dictate your dairy destiny these days.

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The Midwest is playing survival mode.

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Texas is gambling on geopolitics and the Midwest is inventing cow collectives.

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Exactly right, Bella.

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Wherever you are, one truth holds.

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Adapt or get milk dry.

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Douglas, let's talk about something that I think keeps dairy geneticists up at night.

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The long-term genetic implications of all this beef crossbreeding.

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Are we breeding ourselves into a corner?

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You've hit on what I call the genetic elephant in the parlor, the uncomfortable truth nobody wants to discuss.

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While beef cross calves are fattening wallets now, our dairy genetics are backsliding in a way that could take decades to recover from.

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How significant is this genetic impact?

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Let me put it in perspective.

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Before 2020, we were boosting milk, expected progeny differences or EPDs by about 87 pounds per year.

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Now, we've slowed to a pathetic 43 pounds per year.

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That's like swapping your GPS for a compass.

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Sure, you'll still get somewhere, but progress is painfully slow.

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What does that mean for future milk production?

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Purdue University economists have crunched these numbers and they're sobering.

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Every 10% drop in replacements slashes U.S. milk output by 2.3 billion pounds in five years.

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Their projections show 2030 yields tanking to 26,900 pounds per cow.

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That's 4% below where we should be.

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At today's prices, that's $920 lost annually per 100 cows.

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That's fascinating.

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Are there technological solutions being developed as well?

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Absolutely.

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UC Davis has what I call their CRISPR crew.

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They're editing mastitis resistance into 200 embryos.

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The early results are impressive.

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62% fewer somatic cells and trial heifers.

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That's a game changer for utter health and milk quality.

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I know some listeners might be wondering, isn't gene editing controversial or even illegal for livestock?

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That's a common misconception.

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The USDA actually greenlit gene editing for research purposes in 2023.

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Commercial use is probably still a few years out.

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Maybe by 2027 if regulatory approval stays on track and public acceptance grows.

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What can individual farmers do today to protect their herd's genetic future?

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I recommend a three-part genetic survival strategy.

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First, audit your EBVs and sound the alarms if your herd's milk gains lag behind 50 pounds per year.

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Second, diversify your breeding.

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Allocate at least 30% of cows to dairy-only matings, even your B-tier animals.

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And third, consider joining a gene bank through your breed association.

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Their freezer might save your operation in 2030.

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So we're at a genetic crossroads.

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Chase quick beef bucks or invest in the udders that built this industry.

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Exactly, Bella.

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And remember this truth.

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Once those milk genes fade, they're hell to resurrect.

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The decisions farmers make in their breeding barns today will echo for generations.

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Let's shift gears and talk about how government policies and international trade are affecting this heifer crisis.

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Douglas, what should our listeners know about federal programs that might help?

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The biggest development is the USDA Heifer Insurance Pilot Program,

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probably the closest thing to a government hug dairy farmers will ever get.

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Here's how it works.

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It covers 60% of rearing costs if springer prices tank below $2,800 per head, what I call the oh crap threshold.

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That sounds helpful.

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Are there any catches or requirements?

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Of course there are.

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This is the government we're talking about.

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The big one is that you need to maintain at least 30% heifer retention.

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No beef bonanzas allowed if you want this safety net.

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So far in 2025, about 8,100 farms, roughly 12% of U.S. dairies, have signed up.

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Why should farmers consider this program?

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Imagine this scenario.

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Feed prices spike, springer prices crash to $2,500, and suddenly Uncle Sam cuts you a check for $1,680 per heifer.

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That could be the difference between folding and fighting another day.

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Imagine if a farm is at 29% retention instead of the required 30%.

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Tough luck, partner.

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Rules are rules.

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That's why it's critical to audit those heifer counts like your subsidy depends on them, because it does.

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Let's talk international.

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How are trade relationships affecting dairy beef markets?

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We've got $1.5 billion in dairy beef trade hanging by a thread due to two major threats.

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Mexico is considering a 25% tariff on U.S. dairy beef, which would devastate about $480 million in exports.

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This would hit Texas and Western operations particularly hard.

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And what about our northern neighbor, Canada?

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Canada has introduced hemoglobin tests on cross-breds that could lead to 40% carcass rejections at the border.

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This primarily affects upper Midwest operations that ship culls north.

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What's being done to address these trade threats?

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I spoke with dairy lobbyist Mitch Davis, yes, the guy who always wears those fancy boots in D.C.,

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and he told me they're begging for a dual-use loophole in the trade agreements.

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His exact words were, no deal?

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Say goodbye to 10 cents per pound on your culls.

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Translation, if Canada's new test sticks, your beef cross calves could get turned back at the border like they have expired passports.

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What steps should farmers take regarding these policy and trade issues?

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First, run your retention numbers.

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If you're at 28%, work to reach 30% before the USDA deadline to qualify for that insurance program.

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Second, diversify your exports.

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If you've got contacts in Vietnam or other markets, now's the time to develop those relationships.

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And third, get involved with your state dairy group's advocacy efforts.

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Those Zoom calls might seem boring, but your participation matters.

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So policy isn't just for politicians anymore.

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It has real-world impacts on dairy farm profitability.

320
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Absolutely.

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Whether it's hedging bets with USDA insurance or dodging tariff shrapnel,

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your engagement with policy this season will echo for years.

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Douglas, I'd love to shift to some success stories.

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Our listeners need to hear how some farms are turning this crisis into opportunity.

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Do you have any examples of dairies that have navigated these challenges successfully?

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I thought you'd never ask.

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Let me tell you about Klecker Dairy in Wisconsin.

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Last year, they needed 120 springers but came up 60 short.

329
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Instead of panicking, they implemented four strategies that turned their situation around.

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What was their first move?

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They started with what I call a sext semen smackdown.

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They targeted their top 30 percent of cows with sext semen

333
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and achieved 90 percent heifer calves versus the 45 percent you'd get with conventional semen.

334
00:21:59,500 --> 00:22:04,500
Sarah Klecker told me directly, why waste beef bowls on your MVPs?

335
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That simple change dramatically increased their heifer crop from their best genetics.

336
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What else did they implement?

337
00:22:11,500 --> 00:22:15,500
Their second strategy was what I call the genomic guillotine.

338
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They spent $75 per heifer on genomic testing

339
00:22:18,500 --> 00:22:25,500
but saved $3,200 per heifer by culling low EPD calves at just two weeks of age.

340
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Sarah didn't mince words about this approach.

341
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We nixed 30 percent of calves early.

342
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Ruthless? Yes. Profitable? Hell, yes.

343
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That's a compelling return on investment.

344
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What was their third approach?

345
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They still used beef bowls but very strategically.

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They bred only their bottom 50 percent of cows to Angus,

347
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generating about $82,000 in premium calf sales, enough to buy 24 springers outright.

348
00:22:52,500 --> 00:22:55,500
And finally, they implemented heifer timesharing,

349
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leasing 60 springers at $35 per day through a Wisconsin dairy cooperative.

350
00:23:01,500 --> 00:23:07,500
Sarah described it as like Uber for heifers. Why own when you can rent?

351
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And how successful were these strategies in turning things around?

352
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The numbers tell the story.

353
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Before implementing these changes, their herd renewal rate was 50 percent,

354
00:23:19,500 --> 00:23:23,500
meaning they were only replacing half of the cows they needed to.

355
00:23:23,500 --> 00:23:27,500
After these strategies, they reached 95 percent renewal.

356
00:23:27,500 --> 00:23:33,500
Their cost per springer dropped from $3,800 to $2,964.

357
00:23:33,500 --> 00:23:38,500
And as Sarah joked, her stress-induced bald spots went from 3 to 0.

358
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What lessons can other farms take from Klecker's experience?

359
00:23:42,500 --> 00:23:46,500
They didn't reinvent the wheel. They just spun it more brilliantly.

360
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First, triage your herd. Sexed semen on elites, beef bowls on the rest.

361
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Second, test early. Cull hard. Genomics pay for themselves with just three calves.

362
00:23:57,500 --> 00:24:01,500
And third, share the pain through co-ops and leasing arrangements.

363
00:24:01,500 --> 00:24:07,500
It sounds like a balanced approach that maintains genetic progress while managing cash flow.

364
00:24:07,500 --> 00:24:13,500
Exactly right. Klecker found that middle path, not going all in on beef cross-breeding,

365
00:24:13,500 --> 00:24:16,500
but also not ignoring its economic benefits.

366
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They're playing both the short and long game simultaneously.

367
00:24:20,500 --> 00:24:23,500
Let's talk dollars and cents, Douglas.

368
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With today's milk prices and input costs, what does the economic picture look like

369
00:24:28,500 --> 00:24:32,500
for dairy farmers trying to rebuild their heifer numbers?

370
00:24:32,500 --> 00:24:35,500
Bella, this is what I call the milk math meltdown.

371
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Let me lay out the cold hard truth for 2025.

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The USDA is forecasting an all-milk price of $23.05 per hundredweight.

373
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That's up 50 cents from last year, which sounds good on paper.

374
00:24:48,500 --> 00:24:52,500
But there's more to the story than just milk price, right?

375
00:24:52,500 --> 00:24:57,500
Absolutely. While milk is up 50 cents, corn is projected at $4.85 per bush.

376
00:24:57,500 --> 00:25:05,500
That's up 74 cents. Diesel is at $4.10 per gallon, up 90 cents.

377
00:25:05,500 --> 00:25:11,500
And the average heifer cost has increased $440 to $3,200 per head.

378
00:25:11,500 --> 00:25:16,500
So for a 100-cow dairy, that extra 50 cents per hundredweight in milk price

379
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would mean about $5,200 more income annually.

380
00:25:21,500 --> 00:25:27,500
But the increased costs in feed, fuel, and replacements would far outweigh that gain.

381
00:25:27,500 --> 00:25:34,500
Exactly. That extra 50 cents feels like monopoly money when you subtract the real costs.

382
00:25:34,500 --> 00:25:40,500
For a 100-cow herd, you're looking at about $11,100 more in feed costs,

383
00:25:40,500 --> 00:25:50,500
$6,300 more in fuel. And if you're replacing 20 cows, that's an extra $8,800 in heifer costs.

384
00:25:50,500 --> 00:25:56,500
Those numbers don't paint a pretty picture. How are farmers managing to break even?

385
00:25:56,500 --> 00:26:01,500
I spoke with Wisconsin dairy farmer Jed Collins, who dropped a real jaw dropper.

386
00:26:01,500 --> 00:26:07,500
He told me, at $23 milk, I need 85% pregnancies just to break even.

387
00:26:07,500 --> 00:26:11,500
We're stuck at 78%. Something's got to give.

388
00:26:11,500 --> 00:26:20,500
So at 78% pregnancy rate, he's getting 78 replacements, but he needs 85 to maintain his herd.

389
00:26:20,500 --> 00:26:22,500
That's a seven heifer deficit.

390
00:26:22,500 --> 00:26:30,500
Exactly. And at $3,200 per springer, that's a $22,400 hole in his operation.

391
00:26:30,500 --> 00:26:37,500
When I suggested he just get better at breeding, he reminded me about the HPAI-infected heifers

392
00:26:37,500 --> 00:26:41,500
and $4 diesel affecting his reproductive program visits.

393
00:26:41,500 --> 00:26:46,500
What advice do you have for farmers trying to navigate these economic challenges?

394
00:26:46,500 --> 00:26:50,500
First, run your specific break-even calculation.

395
00:26:50,500 --> 00:26:56,500
Multiply your milk price by 100 weight, then subtract feed, fuel, and labor costs.

396
00:26:56,500 --> 00:26:59,500
That tells you exactly where you stand.

397
00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:02,500
Second, lock in input prices where possible.

398
00:27:02,500 --> 00:27:07,500
Contract next year's corn at $4.85 before it hits $5.

399
00:27:07,500 --> 00:27:11,500
And third, if you've got extra heifers, hold on to them.

400
00:27:11,500 --> 00:27:14,500
Your neighbor will likely pay triple for them in six months.

401
00:27:14,500 --> 00:27:19,500
It sounds like the math is rigged against dairy farmers right now.

402
00:27:19,500 --> 00:27:22,500
But strategic management can still create a path forward.

403
00:27:22,500 --> 00:27:30,500
The math is tough, no doubt about it, but smart operators are finding ways to squeeze more efficiency from their operations.

404
00:27:30,500 --> 00:27:35,500
It's not about working harder, it's about working smarter with the resources you have.

405
00:27:35,500 --> 00:27:42,500
Next, as we start to wrap up our discussion, Douglas, let's focus on practical next steps.

406
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What should dairy farmers be doing right now to position themselves for success despite these challenges?

407
00:27:48,500 --> 00:27:50,500
Great question, Bella.

408
00:27:50,500 --> 00:27:54,500
Let's break this down into immediate actions and long-game strategies.

409
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For immediate fire drills, start with EPD audits.

410
00:27:58,500 --> 00:28:07,500
If you're not axing the bottom 25% of heifers based on genomics, you're essentially wasting $3,200 per head on future culls.

411
00:28:07,500 --> 00:28:13,500
Even if those heifers are already born, wouldn't it be better to raise them anyway?

412
00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:16,500
That's exactly the thinking that gets farms in trouble.

413
00:28:16,500 --> 00:28:20,500
Yes, it feels wasteful to sell a perfectly healthy calf,

414
00:28:20,500 --> 00:28:27,500
but it's better to sell them as bottle calves now than lose $10,000 raising them into underperforming cows.

415
00:28:27,500 --> 00:28:30,500
Ruthless beats bankrupt every time.

416
00:28:30,500 --> 00:28:34,500
What's the next immediate step farms should take?

417
00:28:34,500 --> 00:28:41,500
Lock in springer contracts now. June's coming, and with it, $4,000 plus per head panic prices.

418
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Today's ouch price is tomorrow's bargain.

419
00:28:44,500 --> 00:28:49,500
We're already seeing 18% pre-summer price spikes at Midwest auctions.

420
00:28:49,500 --> 00:28:55,500
And don't forget about that USDA heifer insurance program you mentioned earlier.

421
00:28:55,500 --> 00:28:57,500
Excellent point, Bella.

422
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March 31st is the deadline for the USDA insurance program.

423
00:29:01,500 --> 00:29:04,500
That 60% cost coverage of springers crash.

424
00:29:04,500 --> 00:29:09,500
It's essentially free money if you meet the requirements and enroll in time.

425
00:29:09,500 --> 00:29:16,500
What about longer-term strategies? How should farms be positioning themselves for 2026 and beyond?

426
00:29:16,500 --> 00:29:21,500
This is where visionary farmers will separate themselves from the pack.

427
00:29:21,500 --> 00:29:24,500
First, consider CRISPR embryos.

428
00:29:24,500 --> 00:29:31,500
UC Davis is editing mastitis resistance into embryos that cost about $2,500 per dose.

429
00:29:31,500 --> 00:29:38,500
That might sound expensive, but it's cheaper than raising four-dud heifers only to cull them for utter health issues.

430
00:29:38,500 --> 00:29:41,500
What about advocacy and policy engagement?

431
00:29:41,500 --> 00:29:48,500
Absolutely critical. California producers are currently begging for HPAI disaster relief.

432
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There's $120 million in federal aid hanging in limbo.

433
00:29:52,500 --> 00:29:54,500
Your state could be next.

434
00:29:54,500 --> 00:29:59,500
Even if you hate making phone calls, find a way to engage with policy discussions.

435
00:29:59,500 --> 00:30:05,500
Don't complain when Canada slaps tariffs on your culls if you weren't willing to make your voice heard.

436
00:30:05,500 --> 00:30:09,500
And what about breeding decisions for the coming year?

437
00:30:09,500 --> 00:30:17,500
If beef cross-breeding dominated 85% of your herd last year, flip at least 15% back to dairy bulls this year.

438
00:30:17,500 --> 00:30:24,500
Yes, you'll leave some immediate money on the table, but you're building a life raft for your future herd.

439
00:30:24,500 --> 00:30:32,500
So the action plan is cull low EBV heifers immediately, secure Springer contracts before summer price spikes,

440
00:30:32,500 --> 00:30:38,500
sign up for USDA insurance by the deadline, consider investing in advanced genetics like CRISPR embryos,

441
00:30:38,500 --> 00:30:44,500
engage with policy advocacy, and shift at least 15% of breeding back to dairy.

442
00:30:44,500 --> 00:30:47,500
That's the playbook, Bella. The road ahead has plenty of potholes,

443
00:30:47,500 --> 00:30:53,500
but farms that follow this map have a fighting chance not just to survive, but to thrive through this crisis.

444
00:30:53,500 --> 00:31:02,500
As we come to the end of today's episode, Douglas, what final thoughts do you have for our listeners about this historic heifer crisis?

445
00:31:02,500 --> 00:31:08,500
Bella, America's dairy industry isn't just at a crossroads. It's balancing on a razor's edge.

446
00:31:08,500 --> 00:31:20,500
The numbers tell the story. 3.914 million heifers nationwide, $4,000 Springers, 18% milk loss from HPAI, and weakening genetic progress.

447
00:31:20,500 --> 00:31:26,500
What got us here won't get us there. It seems farmers have two distinct paths forward.

448
00:31:26,500 --> 00:31:36,500
That's right. Path A is doubling down on beef cross-breeding, cashing those $1,200 checks, and hoping the industry somehow sorts itself out.

449
00:31:36,500 --> 00:31:42,500
Path B is playing the long game, reserving 25% of your cows for dairy's future,

450
00:31:42,500 --> 00:31:49,500
lobbying like your subsidies depend on it, and investing in advanced genomics and emerging technologies.

451
00:31:49,500 --> 00:31:58,500
This isn't just about surviving 2025, is it? It's about whether there's a dairy industry left in 2035.

452
00:31:58,500 --> 00:32:04,500
Exactly, Bella. The clock is ticking, the milk tank is draining, and the world is watching.

453
00:32:04,500 --> 00:32:08,500
Will American dairy fade into beef history or fight for its future?

454
00:32:08,500 --> 00:32:14,500
I'm not selling sunshine here. It's going to be tough. Feed costs will bite, tariffs will sting.

455
00:32:14,500 --> 00:32:20,500
But somewhere between today's chaos and tomorrow's empty parlors, there's a chance to rewrite the rules.

456
00:32:20,500 --> 00:32:24,500
What's your final call to action for our listeners?

457
00:32:24,500 --> 00:32:30,500
Grab your breeding charts, genomic reports, and pick up the phone to call your representatives.

458
00:32:30,500 --> 00:32:37,500
The next generation of dairy doesn't need heroes. It needs fighters who will plant trees knowing they may never taste the fruit.

459
00:32:37,500 --> 00:32:41,500
Your legacy starts now. Act like it.

460
00:32:41,500 --> 00:32:46,500
That brings us to the end of this episode of the Bull Vine Podcast.

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00:32:46,500 --> 00:32:52,500
We've covered the U.S. dairy heifer crisis from every angle, from regional challenges to genetic concerns,

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from policy impacts to success stories of farms navigating these troubled waters.

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Thank you for joining us today. If you found this information valuable, please share it with other dairy producers who might benefit.

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And remember to subscribe to the Bull Vine Podcast wherever you get your podcasts.

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For the Bull Vine Podcast, I'm Bella alongside Douglas.

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Until next time, keep those milkers moving and those heifers growing. The future of dairy depends on it.