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Welcome to episode 172 of the Bullvine Podcast, your weekly dose of dairy industry insights.

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Today we're diving into the global weekly dairy market recap for February 17th, 2025.

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We've got a jam-packed episode covering everything from production surges to trade tensions and

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shifting consumer trends.

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So grab your favorite milk-based beverage and let's churn through this week's dairy developments.

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Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your weekly dose of dairy industry insights.

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I'm Bella and with me as always is our resident dairy expert, Douglas.

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Today we're diving into the global weekly dairy market recap for February 17th, 2025.

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Douglas, what's churning in the dairy world this week?

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Well, Bella, it's a real mixed bag out there.

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We've got cheese prices on the rise, but butter and powders are softening.

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The U.S. is dealing with milk surpluses in some areas while others are struggling with

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production.

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And to top it off, new tariffs are stirring up concerns about trade tensions.

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Sounds like a lot to unpack.

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Let's start with the big picture.

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What are the key developments we're seeing?

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First off, the Canadian Dairy Commission has made a slight adjustment to farm-gate milk

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prices, decreasing them by 0.0237% for 2025.

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It's a small change, but every bit counts in this industry.

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That's true.

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What about production forecasts?

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The USDA has revised its 2025 milk production forecast upwards to 227.2 billion pounds.

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That's a significant increase, driven by both higher cow numbers and improved milk yields.

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Wow, that's a lot of milk.

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Are we seeing similar trends globally?

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Indeed we are.

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Rabo Research is projecting a 0.8% increase in milk supply from major exporting regions

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in 2025.

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What's interesting is that all key areas are expected to see gains for the first time since

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2020.

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That's fascinating.

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It seems like the dairy industry is really ramping up production.

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But I'm curious, how is this affecting prices and trade?

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Well, that's where things get a bit complicated.

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We're seeing mixed price movements across dairy commodities.

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Cheese is showing resilience, but other products are facing downward pressure.

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And then there's the trade situation.

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Ah, yes, you mentioned new tariffs earlier.

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What's happening there?

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The U.S. has announced new trade actions, including increased steel and aluminum tariffs.

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This could potentially affect U.S. dairy exports, which are crucial for the cheese market in

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particular.

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That sounds concerning.

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How are farmers faring in all of this?

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There's actually some good news on that front.

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The USDA is projecting a significant increase in net farm income for 2025, largely driven

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by disaster and economic government assistance.

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Well, that's a relief.

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Now let's dive a bit deeper into the market trends.

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What are the key challenges and opportunities you're seeing?

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One of the biggest challenges is managing regional disparities in milk production.

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We've got surplus conditions in some areas, while others are facing shortages due to weather-related

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issues.

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Adapting to changing consumer preferences and price sensitivities is also a major concern.

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And what about opportunities?

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There are several exciting opportunities.

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We can leverage the projected global supply growth to expand market share in key export

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markets.

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There's also a growing demand for health-conscious and sustainable dairy products, which opens

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up avenues for innovation.

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Speaking of markets, can you give us a snapshot of the futures market?

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Certainly.

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Looking at EEX futures, we saw a total volume of 1,235 contracts traded this week.

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Butter futures showed a slight downward trend, with the February 2025 contract closing at

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5,565 euros per ton.

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Skim milk powder futures remained relatively stable.

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And what about other futures markets?

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On the SGX, we saw 890 contracts traded.

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Class III milk futures for February 2025 settled at $20.21 per hundred weight, while Class

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IV futures concluded at $19.85.

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Interesting.

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How does this translate to spot market prices?

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As of February 11, butter was at $2.40.5 per pound, down slightly from the previous week.

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Cheddar block prices increased to $1.90.5 per pound.

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We're seeing a complex supply and demand dynamic playing out in these numbers.

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It certainly sounds complex.

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Let's talk about regional production and demand.

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You mentioned earlier that there are some disparities.

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That's right.

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In the U.S., we're seeing overall growth in milk production, but there are significant

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regional differences.

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The Midwest is experiencing surplus conditions, while the Northeast is facing challenges due

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to harsh winter weather.

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And what about other major dairy-producing regions?

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The European Union is expecting slight growth in milk production for 2025, with variations

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across member states.

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New Zealand, on the other hand, has adjusted its forecast downward by 2% due to dry conditions.

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Interestingly, China is projected to see a 2% year-on-year growth in dairy import volumes,

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reversing a three-year decline.

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That's quite a global tour of dairy production.

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Now, I know our listeners are always interested in consumer trends.

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What are you seeing on that front?

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We're seeing increased demand for functional dairy products, like probiotic yogurts and

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fortified milk.

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There's also growing interest in low-fat and reduced-sugar options, as well as organic

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and grass-fed dairy products.

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The on-the-go dairy snacks and single-serve portions continue to be popular.

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It sounds like consumers are really focusing on health and convenience.

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How is this affecting the overall market?

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The global dairy market is showing strong growth potential.

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According to a report from Mordor Intelligence, the market size is expected to grow from $649.9

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billion in 2025 to $813.6 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%.

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Those are impressive numbers.

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As we start to wrap up, what's your outlook for the future of the dairy industry?

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The all-milk price forecast for 2025 is $23.05 per hundred weight, which is 50 cents higher

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than last month's forecast.

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We're expecting global milk supply to grow by 0.8% in 2025.

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However, we're still facing ongoing challenges with evolving trade relations, fluctuating

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prices and changes in global agricultural supply.

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It sounds like dairy farmers and industry stakeholders have a lot to keep an eye on.

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Any final thoughts or advice?

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My advice would be to stay informed about regional production trends, consider hedging

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strategies to mitigate price volatility risks, and invest in innovation to meet changing

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consumer demands.

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It's a challenging but exciting time in the dairy industry.

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Bella, thank you, Douglas, for this comprehensive overview of the global dairy market.

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To our listeners, we hope this information helps you navigate the complex world of dairy

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farming and trading.

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Remember to subscribe to the Bullvine Podcast for more insights into the dairy industry.

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And until next time, keep those cows happy and healthy.

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And that wraps up our deep dive into the global dairy market.

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Remember, in this ever-changing landscape, staying informed is your best strategy.

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Whether you're managing regional disparities, navigating trade tensions, or innovating to

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meet consumer demands, the key is adaptability.

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Subscribe to the Bullvine Podcast to keep your finger on the pulse of the dairy industry.

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Share this episode with your fellow dairy enthusiasts, and don't forget to leave a

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review.

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Your feedback helps us serve you better.

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Until next time, may your milk yields be high and your feed costs low.

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Keep those udders moving, dairy farmers.