Welcome to the Bull Vine Podcast, your go-to source for inside stories, cutting edge research,
and the latest updates in the world of dairy farming.
In our 135th episode recap, the past week was in the dairy markets.
2025 is kicking off with a wild ride of heifer shortages, production swings, and market surprises.
From California's bird flu bounce back to China's renewed appetite for our products,
we're breaking down the latest dairy market trends that'll impact your bottom line this
year.
So please grab a glass of milk, sit back, and let's get started with this episode.
Welcome to the Bull Vines Dairy Market Report Podcast, or the week ending January 24th,
2025.
Today, we're diving into the dairy industry's outlook for 2025.
That's right, despite the ongoing heifer shortage, there's significant growth on the horizon.
Let's break down this week's report.
Absolutely.
Let's start with milk production.
The USDA projects US milk production at 227.2 billion pounds for 2025, with an average of
9.39 million cows in the national herd.
Interesting.
How does that compare to 2024?
Well, it's a slight decrease.
In 2024, we saw 227.3 billion pounds from 9.345 million cows.
The production per cow is also expected to dip slightly from 24,330 pounds to 24,200
pounds.
Now, the heifer shortage is really hitting us hard.
In 2024, we only sent 2.76 million cows to slaughter.
That's the lowest since 2008.
That's true.
It's helped stabilize herds, but growth has been challenging.
Let's look at how different states are faring.
Go ahead.
Wisconsin's up by a hair at 0.1%.
Texas jumped 7.5%.
Idaho's up 3.5%.
New York inched up 0.7%.
Michigan climbed 1.4%.
But California is a different story, right?
Unfortunately, yes.
The bird flu outbreak hit them hard, with production dropping 6.8%.
But there's hope.
January is looking better with new infections down.
That's good to hear.
Now, let's talk about butterfat and protein production.
Sure thing.
Butterfat production jumped 1.9% in 2024, and protein output grew 0.5%.
Butter stocks are up 2, reaching 222.4 million pounds in December.
That's an 11.4% increase from last year.
And consumers seem to love their butter.
Domestic consumption leaped 6% in 2023 and another 7% in 2024.
That's right.
Now, let's move on to the cheese and whey markets.
The cheese market's in transition, isn't it?
Yes, stocks were tight in 2024.
But we're looking at more output in 2025.
There's some concern about potential tariffs, though.
And what about the whey market?
High prices are starting to subside there.
Buyers are hoping for more dry whey output and lower prices down the road.
Now let's look at the global picture.
Any good news there?
Actually, yes, milk powder prices are up at the global dairy trade auction.
Whole milk powder jumped 5%.
And China's starting to buy more dairy again.
That's encouraging.
How about US milk powder prices?
They took a small hit, falling 2.5 cents to $1.3475.
There's some worry about trade prospects and a rebound in production.
Let's wrap up with a look at the futures market and feed prices.
Class 3 closed at $19.37 per hundred weight, down 81 cents.
Most class 4 contracts lost about a nickel.
On the feed side, March corn futures held steady at $4.8575 per bushel, soybeans added
20 cents to hit $10.55, and soybean meal futures jumped $660 to $300 fords per ton.
And what's the bottom line for our listeners?
Despite challenges, there are opportunities for growth.
The projected all-milk price for 2025 is now 23.05 cents per hundred weight, up 50 cents
from the previous estimate.
Cheddar cheese is looking at $865 per pound, and butters at $695 per pound.
Sounds like we need to stay informed and keep innovating.
Any final thoughts?
Absolutely.
Every farm's contribution matters.
Let's make 2025 a year where dairy excels.
Thanks and thank you listeners for tuning in to the Bullvine's Dairy Market Report.
Until next time, keep those cows happy and productive.
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