1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:09,800 Welcome to the Bull Vine Podcast, your go-to source for inside stories, cutting edge research, 2 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,160 and the latest updates in the world of dairy farming. 3 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:18,600 In our 135th episode recap, the past week was in the dairy markets. 4 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:25,840 2025 is kicking off with a wild ride of heifer shortages, production swings, and market surprises. 5 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:30,640 From California's bird flu bounce back to China's renewed appetite for our products, 6 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:35,520 we're breaking down the latest dairy market trends that'll impact your bottom line this 7 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:36,640 year. 8 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:41,680 So please grab a glass of milk, sit back, and let's get started with this episode. 9 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:47,440 Welcome to the Bull Vines Dairy Market Report Podcast, or the week ending January 24th, 10 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:48,440 2025. 11 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:53,240 Today, we're diving into the dairy industry's outlook for 2025. 12 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:58,940 That's right, despite the ongoing heifer shortage, there's significant growth on the horizon. 13 00:00:58,940 --> 00:01:01,200 Let's break down this week's report. 14 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:02,360 Absolutely. 15 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,000 Let's start with milk production. 16 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:11,240 The USDA projects US milk production at 227.2 billion pounds for 2025, with an average of 17 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,280 9.39 million cows in the national herd. 18 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:15,280 Interesting. 19 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:16,840 How does that compare to 2024? 20 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,640 Well, it's a slight decrease. 21 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:26,220 In 2024, we saw 227.3 billion pounds from 9.345 million cows. 22 00:01:26,220 --> 00:01:31,840 The production per cow is also expected to dip slightly from 24,330 pounds to 24,200 23 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:32,840 pounds. 24 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,840 Now, the heifer shortage is really hitting us hard. 25 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:41,000 In 2024, we only sent 2.76 million cows to slaughter. 26 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,560 That's the lowest since 2008. 27 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:44,560 That's true. 28 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,460 It's helped stabilize herds, but growth has been challenging. 29 00:01:47,460 --> 00:01:50,960 Let's look at how different states are faring. 30 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:51,960 Go ahead. 31 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:53,880 Wisconsin's up by a hair at 0.1%. 32 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:55,640 Texas jumped 7.5%. 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,160 Idaho's up 3.5%. 34 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:58,760 New York inched up 0.7%. 35 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:00,760 Michigan climbed 1.4%. 36 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,320 But California is a different story, right? 37 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:04,720 Unfortunately, yes. 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,480 The bird flu outbreak hit them hard, with production dropping 6.8%. 39 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:10,480 But there's hope. 40 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,540 January is looking better with new infections down. 41 00:02:13,540 --> 00:02:14,540 That's good to hear. 42 00:02:14,540 --> 00:02:17,840 Now, let's talk about butterfat and protein production. 43 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:19,160 Sure thing. 44 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:25,400 Butterfat production jumped 1.9% in 2024, and protein output grew 0.5%. 45 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:30,160 Butter stocks are up 2, reaching 222.4 million pounds in December. 46 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,800 That's an 11.4% increase from last year. 47 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,280 And consumers seem to love their butter. 48 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:41,280 Domestic consumption leaped 6% in 2023 and another 7% in 2024. 49 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:42,280 That's right. 50 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,120 Now, let's move on to the cheese and whey markets. 51 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,520 The cheese market's in transition, isn't it? 52 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,480 Yes, stocks were tight in 2024. 53 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,080 But we're looking at more output in 2025. 54 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,080 There's some concern about potential tariffs, though. 55 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,000 And what about the whey market? 56 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,640 High prices are starting to subside there. 57 00:03:01,640 --> 00:03:06,280 Buyers are hoping for more dry whey output and lower prices down the road. 58 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,080 Now let's look at the global picture. 59 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,560 Any good news there? 60 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:14,440 Actually, yes, milk powder prices are up at the global dairy trade auction. 61 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,920 Whole milk powder jumped 5%. 62 00:03:16,920 --> 00:03:19,400 And China's starting to buy more dairy again. 63 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:20,400 That's encouraging. 64 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,520 How about US milk powder prices? 65 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:27,160 They took a small hit, falling 2.5 cents to $1.3475. 66 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,580 There's some worry about trade prospects and a rebound in production. 67 00:03:31,580 --> 00:03:35,520 Let's wrap up with a look at the futures market and feed prices. 68 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:40,920 Class 3 closed at $19.37 per hundred weight, down 81 cents. 69 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,200 Most class 4 contracts lost about a nickel. 70 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:49,280 On the feed side, March corn futures held steady at $4.8575 per bushel, soybeans added 71 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:56,640 20 cents to hit $10.55, and soybean meal futures jumped $660 to $300 fords per ton. 72 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,280 And what's the bottom line for our listeners? 73 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,760 Despite challenges, there are opportunities for growth. 74 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:09,800 The projected all-milk price for 2025 is now 23.05 cents per hundred weight, up 50 cents 75 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:11,640 from the previous estimate. 76 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:17,920 Cheddar cheese is looking at $865 per pound, and butters at $695 per pound. 77 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,460 Sounds like we need to stay informed and keep innovating. 78 00:04:21,460 --> 00:04:22,920 Any final thoughts? 79 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:23,920 Absolutely. 80 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:25,920 Every farm's contribution matters. 81 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,080 Let's make 2025 a year where dairy excels. 82 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:34,120 Thanks and thank you listeners for tuning in to the Bullvine's Dairy Market Report. 83 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,960 Until next time, keep those cows happy and productive. 84 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,940 Thank you for tuning in to the Bullvine Podcast. 85 00:04:40,940 --> 00:04:44,240 We hope you enjoyed today's insightful discussion. 86 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,560 Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review. 87 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:52,640 Catch you next time on the Bullvine Podcast, where bovine expertise and community come 88 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:59,640 together.