1
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OK, so get this.

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If we stacked all the US national debt in dollar bills,

3
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it could literally reach the moon and back twice.

4
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Whoa.

5
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Yeah, no, seriously, we're talking about $35 trillion.

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It's an astronomical sum.

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It's mind boggling.

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Right.

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And that's exactly what we're diving into today,

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trying to wrap our heads around this financial behemoth.

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How did we even get here?

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And what does it all even mean?

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Well, it's definitely a topic that can feel pretty

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overwhelming for sure.

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Absolutely.

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So we're going to try to break it down.

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We're taking a look at this recent analysis on US debt.

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OK.

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And hopefully, we can do this without getting too

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lost in all the jargon.

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So you ready to unpack this?

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Yeah, let's do it.

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All right.

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Now, I'm guessing most of us listening

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aren't economics professors or anything.

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So before we get into trillions with a capital T,

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can you remind us how debt actually works?

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Not even just for me personally, but for entire countries.

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Yeah, absolutely.

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So it's actually not that different from how

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we handle our own money.

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Really?

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Yeah, so imagine a country, right?

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It spends more on things like social programs or defense,

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maybe infrastructure even, than it makes back

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through things like taxes or other stuff.

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That creates what's called a budget deficit.

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That makes sense.

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It's like when I buy those extra pair of shoes,

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it throws my budget totally out of whack.

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Exactly.

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Exactly.

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So to cover that deficit, countries

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do what a lot of us do.

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They borrow money.

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And they often do this by offering government bonds,

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which are basically these IOUs.

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Props need to pay back that amount with a little extra

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interest to investors.

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And those investors could be like anyone, right?

51
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Yeah, it could be individuals, corporations, even

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other countries.

53
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Wow.

54
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OK.

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So it's like taking out a massive loan.

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OK, so it's like one giant loan.

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Got it.

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Exactly.

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And now here's where it gets interesting for the US, right?

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Since 2001, almost every year, we've had a budget deficit.

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So we've been spending more than we're making.

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Pretty much, yeah, consistently.

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And all those deficits, they just

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keep piling on top of each other year after year.

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And that's how we end up with this insane $35 trillion debt.

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Yeah, and visually, it's pretty striking.

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I bet, yeah, the analysis actually

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has this chart showing the debt increasing over time.

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And let me tell you, it's kind of terrifying looking at that.

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And this is where rolling over debt comes into play,

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which adds another layer of complexity to it all.

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OK, wait, hold on.

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Rolling over debt.

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See, that sounds like the financial jargon

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I was talking about.

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Oh, right.

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Yeah.

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Can you break that down a bit?

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Sure.

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So essentially, when debt reaches a certain date,

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a maturity date, the government often

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borrows even more money to pay it back.

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So it's like not really paying it off so much

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as kicking it down the road.

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It's kind of like refinancing your mortgage,

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where you're basically swapping out one debt for another.

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OK, so it's not like paying off your credit card every month.

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It's more like what?

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Just making the minimum payment.

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You got it.

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And this is where those interest rates become a major factor,

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you see.

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When the government borrows money,

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they have to pay interest on that loan, just like we do.

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Yay.

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Right?

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So when those interest rates are low,

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the cost of borrowing is manageable.

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But when rates go up?

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That's when things can get tricky.

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It's like those interest rate hikes that have been happening.

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Exactly.

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And it means the US government has

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to pay way more just to service its existing debt.

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And that can't be good.

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No.

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Because to cover those higher costs, they have to.

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You guessed it, borrow even more.

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Leading to even bigger deficits in the future.

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Exactly.

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Economists call this a debt spiral.

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OK, yeah, that sounds kind of ominous.

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It's definitely something to keep an eye on.

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I mean, it's clear that US has been spending more money

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than it brings in.

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But it's not like they're just lighting it on fire, right?

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Where's all this money even going?

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It's not like frivolous spending.

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No, a lot of it goes towards important things.

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Right.

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Like essential programs, you know?

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Social Security, Medicare.

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Yeah, those are important.

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Yeah, millions of Americans depend on those.

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Makes sense.

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And then there's defense spending,

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health care costs in general.

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Right, all this stuff that keeps the country running.

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Exactly, a whole bunch of necessary expenditures.

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OK, so if that's the spending side,

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what about the income side?

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Where does all that money come from in the first place?

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I mean, it's mostly taxes, right?

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Yeah, you're right.

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Taxes are a big chunk of the government's revenue.

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OK.

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Like the majority of it actually comes

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from individual income tax.

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Right.

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And then there are the contributions

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to Social Security and Medicare.

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OK, so we've got this whole flow of money in and out.

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And we're trying to make sure there's enough coming in

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to cover what's going out.

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Yeah.

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While still making sure we're taking

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care of these essential programs,

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it sounds like a pretty tough balancing act.

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It definitely is.

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And the challenge is that, well, no one really

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wants to pay higher taxes, right?

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True.

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And no one wants to see cuts to the programs they rely on.

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Of course not.

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It's a tough spot to be in.

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Yeah, no kidding.

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It's like politically, you're stuck between a rock

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and a hard place.

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It really is.

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And this analysis from the Congressional Budget Office,

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they're actually projecting that the deficit will just

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keep growing.

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Oh, no.

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If something doesn't change.

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Over the next decade.

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Over the next decade, yeah.

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Wow.

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So yeah, it's a big deal.

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So what can we even do?

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I mean, I keep hearing this thing about the US just

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like printing more money to pay off its debt.

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Is that even possible?

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It feels like, I don't know, is there some secret money tree

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solution that we're missing out on here?

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The classic just print more money solution.

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Right.

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It's definitely an idea.

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And it's not totally without merit.

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OK.

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Let me give you an example.

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Imagine a mortgage, but from the 1970s.

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OK, hold on.

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I'm picturing like avocado green appliances

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and some shag carpeting.

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I'm with you so far.

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But what does that have to do with like inflation and stuff?

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Well, think about how much a dollar was worth back then.

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The source talks about this.

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OK.

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A $24,000 house then would be a steal today.

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Right.

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That same house now could be like what $400,000?

193
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Exactly.

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But that $24,000 is still $24,000.

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The price of everything else went up.

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That's inflation.

197
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Exactly, inflation makes money worth less over time.

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Right.

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I get it.

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So theoretically, a government could print more money.

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OK.

202
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Which doesn't erase the debt, but it

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makes it less of a burden because now the currency itself

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is worth less.

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Oh, I see.

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So you're basically paying back the same amount

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but with like cheaper dollars.

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You got it.

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That's kind of sneaky, actually.

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It is but.

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And there's always a but.

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Yeah, I was just thinking that.

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There's got to be a catch.

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The biggest risk with intentionally causing inflation

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is that it could get out of control.

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What?

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It'll just keep going up and down?

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Exactly.

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Prices for everything could just keep skyrocketing.

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Groceries, gas, rent, all that.

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Everything.

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And that throws the whole economy out of whack.

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Yeah.

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That's not good.

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No.

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And it leads to a whole new set of problems.

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OK, so it sounds like intentionally trying

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to use inflation to get out of debt is less a solution

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and more like, I don't know, playing with fire.

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It's a pretty accurate way to put it.

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You don't have enough inflation.

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The debt's still there.

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But if you have too much, then the whole economy

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goes haywire.

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That's a great way to think about it.

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It's a tightrope walk, for sure.

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Definitely.

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And this is where central banks like the Federal Reserve

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come in.

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Right.

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They have to manage interest rates and inflation

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really carefully.

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But try and keep everything stable.

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Exactly.

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It's a big job.

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It is, with huge consequences.

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OK, so if just printing more money

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isn't a good long term solution, what

249
00:07:33,300 --> 00:07:34,560
are we supposed to do?

250
00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,680
What does this analysis suggest?

251
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:38,880
Well, the analysis points to a couple of key things,

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like boosting productivity and getting

253
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that deficit under control.

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So basically, like we were talking about earlier,

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00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:47,680
spend less, make more.

256
00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:48,800
Pretty much, yeah.

257
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Works for governments and for my own bank account, I guess.

258
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It's universal, right.

259
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And when we say increased productivity,

260
00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,200
we're talking about the economy growing,

261
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meaning more tax revenue, without having

262
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:00,760
to raise rates or anything.

263
00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:01,640
Right.

264
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And with the deficit, it comes down to, well,

265
00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,400
making tough choices, looking at where we're spending,

266
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and maybe even making changes to the tax code.

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I mean, that's always easier said than done.

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For sure.

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Especially with how, I don't know,

270
00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,600
it seems like there's so much gridlock in politics

271
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these days.

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It's definitely a challenge.

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No one can agree on anything.

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It can feel that way sometimes.

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00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,800
But it sounds like there's no quick fix here.

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It's just going to take a lot of hard work and compromise.

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It's a long game, for sure.

278
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Definitely not a sprint, more like a marathon.

279
00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:35,480
Exactly.

280
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,960
So what's interesting is that the analysis actually

281
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compares the US to Australia.

282
00:08:40,560 --> 00:08:41,080
OK.

283
00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,280
Because Australia recently managed

284
00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,560
to do something that I think a lot of countries,

285
00:08:45,560 --> 00:08:48,560
including the US, kind of dream about.

286
00:08:48,560 --> 00:08:50,120
They had a budget surplus.

287
00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,080
They did, which is pretty impressive.

288
00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,720
A surplus, like they had more money coming in than going out.

289
00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:56,240
Yeah.

290
00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:57,560
What's their secret?

291
00:08:57,560 --> 00:09:00,040
Did they find a magical money tree after all?

292
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,560
I wish it was that simple.

293
00:09:01,560 --> 00:09:02,200
Right.

294
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,760
Basically, they've kept their economy growing,

295
00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,360
while also being careful about how much they spend.

296
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,600
Which, again, sounds simple.

297
00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:11,880
But I'm sure it's way harder in practice.

298
00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:13,280
It's a delicate balance.

299
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,560
But that's still pretty encouraging, right?

300
00:09:15,560 --> 00:09:17,560
I mean, it means that having a sustainable budget

301
00:09:17,560 --> 00:09:18,720
isn't impossible.

302
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,320
It shows it can be done, yeah.

303
00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,040
But I imagine it's different for every country, right?

304
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,360
Like, what works in Australia might not work here.

305
00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:26,880
Absolutely.

306
00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:28,800
You can't just copy and paste solutions like that.

307
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:29,160
Right.

308
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:30,480
It's not like doing your homework.

309
00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,600
You can't just cheat off someone else's paper.

310
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:36,000
It's more about seeing what worked,

311
00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,160
understanding the challenges, and then figuring out

312
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,400
how to apply those lessons in a different context.

313
00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,840
So OK, we've thrown a lot of information out there.

314
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:44,800
Where do we even go from here?

315
00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,360
Like, for the average person who's not an economist

316
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,880
or a politician, but still wants to understand

317
00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,440
this whole debt thing, what's the key takeaway here?

318
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,680
I'd say the biggest takeaway is that managing a national debt,

319
00:09:58,680 --> 00:09:59,840
it's a long process.

320
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:00,520
OK.

321
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,960
It requires looking at the big picture,

322
00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:04,520
making responsible choices.

323
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,320
Right, and thinking long term, not just about, like,

324
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:08,560
the next year or two.

325
00:10:08,560 --> 00:10:09,080
Exactly.

326
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:10,240
It's about making sure things are

327
00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:11,640
sustainable in the long run.

328
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:12,400
Exactly.

329
00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,720
And that takes, well, a lot of courage

330
00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:15,880
to make those tough decisions.

331
00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:16,400
For sure.

332
00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:17,960
No one said it was going to be easy.

333
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:19,640
Definitely not.

334
00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,600
Well, I've got to say, this deep dive has been really eye

335
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:24,520
opening, it seems like.

336
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,200
There's no simple solution here.

337
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,040
But at least now, I feel like we understand

338
00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:29,040
the problem a little better.

339
00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:30,640
And that's always the first step, right?

340
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:31,240
Absolutely.

341
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,000
So for everyone listening, we want to hear from you.

342
00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,920
What do you think is the best way to tackle the US debt?

343
00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,240
It's a complex issue that affects all of us.

344
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,600
So let's keep the conversation going.

345
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,400
Thanks for joining us for another deep dive,

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00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:59,040
and we'll catch you next time.

