Ever get that feeling like when you're playing
a really intense video game, you know,
and the graphics are so good,
you almost feel like you could reach out and touch them?
And then VR comes along and just like,
takes it to a whole other level.
Yeah, exactly.
It makes you wonder, right?
Like, what if what we're experiencing right here,
right now is all just part of some hyper realistic
simulation and what if, and this is where it gets
really interesting, what if we're completely oblivious to it?
Well, get ready to go down the rabbit hole, folks,
because today we're taking a deep dive,
a real deep dive into philosopher Nick Bostrom's
mind-bending paper.
Are you living in a computer simulation?
Now, this isn't just some late night
dorm room thought experiment.
Bostrom lays out a pretty compelling argument,
one that's grounded in, get this, probability
and the mind-blowing potential of future computing power.
And even if you're not like fully on board
with the whole we're living in a simulation thing,
which, hey, I get it, the possibilities he lays out are,
well, let's just say they really make you think.
Three possibilities, to be precise,
each one a little more out there than the last.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's rewind a bit.
Because to understand Bostrom's argument,
we need to start with a pretty radical idea,
and that's that consciousness, the stuff that makes you you.
Well, it might not be limited to the confines of our brains.
Okay, so we're talking about consciousness
existing outside the human brain.
I have to admit, that's where things start
to get a little woe for me.
I hear you, it sounds pretty wild at first,
but bear with me for a second.
Think about artificial intelligence.
We've got machines learning to play complex games,
composing music, even writing code,
and doing it all incredibly well.
So if that's where we're at now,
imagine what a civilization thousands,
heck, even millions of years ahead of us
could be capable of.
You're saying with enough computing power,
building a conscious mind, a real one,
wouldn't be that far-fetched.
Exactly, and this is where Bostrom
introduces the concept of substrate independence.
Basically, it's the idea that consciousness, at its core,
isn't about the physical stuff, the gray matter, so to speak.
It's about the information processing that's happening.
So theoretically, any system,
whether it's a biological brain or a super advanced computer
that can replicate that level of complexity,
could host a conscious experience.
Okay, I think I'm starting to see where this is going.
But to create a simulation as real as our own,
wouldn't you need a computer the size of,
well, I don't know, the universe.
Not necessarily.
You see, a simulation, even a really convincing one,
doesn't need to render every single atom,
every quark, to be believable.
Think about those crazy, realistic video games
we were talking about earlier.
They don't simulate every blade of grass, right?
It's about creating an experience that's detailed enough
to fool our senses, to trick us into thinking it's real.
So basically, as long as this simulated reality
is convincing enough, we'd be none the wiser.
Precisely.
And remember, we're dealing with a civilization
that's light years ahead of us technologically.
To give you an idea,
Bostrom talks about this hypothetical supercomputer,
and get this, it's the size of a sugar cube.
A sugar cube?
Yeah, a sugar cube.
But here's the kicker.
This little sugar cube can perform more calculations
per second than there are atoms in the observable universe.
Okay, now that just sounds like something out of a movie.
Like, I can barely wrap my head around it.
I mean, come on, a sugar cube?
Are we talking about like, those little pink packets
you find at a diner?
I know, right?
It sounds crazy.
But think about how much computing power
has exploded in just the last century.
We've gone from these massive room-sized computers
that struggle to do basic math,
to having devices in our pockets
that can recognize our faces
and translate languages in real time.
Now imagine stretching that progress
over thousands, millions of years.
Okay, that's a lot to process.
But let's just say, for argument's sake,
that these like, future humans,
these post-humans, whatever we're calling them,
they've cracked the cone,
they've figured out how to build
these insanely powerful computers.
What's to stop them from whipping up
a whole bunch of ancestor simulations
and like, seeing what sticks?
Well, that's where things get really wild.
That's where Bostrom's three possibilities come into play.
And believe me, they're each more mind-blowing
than the last.
Right, you've got me hooked.
Lay those possibilities on me.
Okay, so possibility number one.
Brace yourself.
It's a bit of a downer.
Ready?
What if humanity never actually reaches that point?
You know, the super advanced civilization
with all the computing power.
What if we go extinct before we even get close?
Okay, so you're saying the fate
of the entire simulated universe
rests on our ability to not, you know,
accidentally end the human race.
No pressure or anything.
Pretty much.
And Bostrom, he doesn't sugar-cut it.
He talks about some pretty serious threats
to humanity's survival.
We're talking nuclear war, catastrophic climate change,
even self-replicating nanotechnology gone wrong.
Self-replicating nanotechnology.
Okay, that one's new.
Yeah, it's kind of terrifying when you think about it.
Basically, imagine these microscopic machines
that can build copies of themselves.
Now imagine if they like malfunctioned
and started multiplying out of control,
consuming all the resources on Earth
in this like unstoppable chain reaction.
Scientists call it the gray goo scenario.
Okay, I did not need that mental image.
Gray goo.
Right, let's move on.
So let's say we do manage to avoid total annihilation.
We dodge the existential bullets,
we reach the post-human stage,
silver jumpsuits, the whole shebang.
Even then, there's no guarantee those future humans
would be interested in creating ancestor simulations, right?
Right, and that brings us to possibility number two.
Humanity reaches its full potential,
capable of basically anything but ancestor simulations.
Nah, they've moved on to bigger and better things.
So we're talking like a civilization so advanced
they're building black holes for their science fairs.
Exactly, I mean, who knows what kind of a mind blowing
things they'd be capable of.
But Bostrom, he digs a little deeper into the why
behind their lack of interest.
And one possibility is ethics.
Ethics, like moral dilemmas.
Exactly, think about it.
If you had the power to create conscious beings
within a simulated reality,
wouldn't you have some kind of moral obligation to,
I don't know, let them know it's up,
or at least ensure their wellbeing?
It's like this whole other level of ethical considerations.
Yeah, I can see that.
It would be kind of messed up to create a whole universe
of sentient beings and then just observe them
without their knowledge.
Kind of creepy, really.
But maybe it's not even about ethics for these post-humans.
Maybe it's simpler than that.
Maybe we're just not that interesting.
You know, it's a humbling thought, but it could be true.
Maybe to a civilization that's millions of years ahead of us,
we're about as fascinating as watching grass grow.
Ouch, that stings a little, but I guess it makes sense.
Okay, so we've covered the depressing possibility,
the we're not worth simulating possibility.
There's still one left, right?
The one where we are the simulation.
That's right, buckle up,
because possibility number three is a doozy.
We're living in it.
Okay, my brain is officially in pretzel mode.
So if we are just lines of code in some cosmic video game,
does that mean free will is just an illusion?
Are we really just puppets
dancing on the strings of these super advanced programmers?
Whoa, you're really going deep now.
That question about free will, that's a big one.
Philosophers have been wrestling with that for centuries,
long before computers were even a thing.
But here's the thing to keep in mind.
Simulated or not, the way we experience our lives,
it feels real, right?
We make choices, good and bad.
We feel joy, we feel pain, we form bonds, we lose people.
And those experiences, they matter to us.
They shape who we are.
So what you're saying is even if our brains
are basically just organic computers
running a really complex program,
the human experience, the good, the bad,
the whole messy thing, it's still valid.
Exactly, think about it like this.
That feeling you get when you accomplish something
you've been working towards,
that connection you have with someone you love,
that gut punch of grief when you lose someone close to you,
those are real emotions.
They drive our actions, they influence our relationships,
they shape our whole understanding of the world.
And it doesn't really matter
if those emotions are sparked by neurons firing in our brains
or lines of code being executed in some mega computer.
The point is, they're real to us.
That's actually a really comforting thought.
It's like, even if the stage is fake,
the emotions we're feeling while we're on it,
those are genuine, I like that.
Right, and that actually leads to a really important point
that Boster makes.
He suggests that even if, and it's a big if,
but even if we are living in a simulation,
it shouldn't fundamentally change how we live our lives.
We should still value things like knowledge,
we should still strive for happiness,
for connection, for meaning,
because those things, they're real to us.
Our reality might be simulated,
but our experiences, those are the real deal.
Okay, that makes me feel a bit better.
So no need to start stocking up on canned goods
and building an underground bunker just yet.
Uh-uh, not just yet.
But it does open up some pretty wild possibilities,
doesn't it?
Like, what if we could somehow,
and I'm just good balling here,
but what if we could somehow break through the simulation,
send a message to our creators?
What would we even say?
What could we possibly offer a civilization
that's millions of years ahead of us?
Hmm, good question.
Maybe we could finally settle that debate
about pineapple on pizza once and for all.
But on a more serious note, it really makes you wonder,
what's the point of it all?
Why go through the trouble of creating these simulations
in the first place?
That is the million dollar question, isn't it?
Maybe these advanced beings are running experiments,
testing out different scenarios, different timelines,
who knows?
Or maybe, and this is a bit out there,
but maybe it's as simple as entertainment for them.
Like, we're basically a really elaborate video game.
Okay, that's a bit of a blow to the ego.
But there's another possibility you mentioned earlier, right?
The one where they're trying to understand their own past.
Exactly, maybe it's not just a one-way mirror.
Maybe these hypothetical beings, these simulators,
they're looking back at us, their ancestors,
trying to understand their own history, their own evolution.
And they're doing it through the lens
of this incredibly detailed simulation.
Now that is a truly mind-blowing thought.
That's incredible.
It's like, we have ancestors here,
and then we have these potential digital ancestors
out there in the great unknown.
Right, and that's what makes Bostrom's argument
so compelling.
Whether you buy into the whole simulation hypothesis or not,
it forces you to confront some pretty huge questions.
What does it mean to be conscious?
What is reality, really?
What does it mean to be human?
Well said, it's kind of humbling in a way,
and a little terrifying, to be honest.
Just a tad.
But hey, at the end of the day, the fact
that we can even ask these questions,
that we can imagine these possibilities,
it's a testament to our curiosity, right?
To our need to understand the universe at our place in it.
Absolutely.
And who knows, maybe someday we'll
have our definitive answer.
But until then, I guess all we can do
is keep exploring these big questions,
keep searching for those answers, and maybe, just maybe,
try not to unplug from the simulation.
Thanks for joining us on this mind-bending journey, everyone.
Until next time, keep looking up,
keep asking those big questions.
And remember, reality is what you make it, or is it?