Welcome to Vanished Sky, a deep dive into Malaysian Airlines Flight 370.
My name is Marilyn and this is Episode 1, the pilot's last training day.
And I'm Ed. Together we will do a deep dive into the first officer training.
Ed, what exactly is inline training?
The inline training aviation program is a structured training process for pilots transitioning to different aircraft types,
or when upgrading their qualifications,
co-pilot Farik Abdulhamid was transitioning from the Airbus 3300 to the Boeing 777-200.
So, basically, if co-pilot Farik Abdulhamid was on his last day of training,
and if Farik Abdulhamid had not passed any qualification test,
then do we really know if the loss of radio communications,
loss of transponder and navigation errors were not just errors made while still training?
Marilyn, in the world of aviation, statistics reveal that 85% of all accidents are attributed to human error.
With that in mind, let's ponder this.
Isn't it more plausible that a student pilot still in the throes of training
might be more prone to making mistakes than an experienced, well-decorated pilot who has never exhibited any signs of error before?
Think about it. A rookie in the cockpit, under the pressure of commanding a commercial airliner, versus a seasoned veteran.
Who is more likely to falter?
The answer might seem obvious, but it's a question worth exploring as we dive deeper into the mysterious case of MH370.
Let's delve into a scenario with our trainee pilot at the helm.
Now, it's quite conceivable that a newbie might fumble with the radio settings,
perhaps accidentally setting it to autotune, which could lead to a complete loss of communication.
And consider this. The transponder's on-off switch is right next to the radio.
It's easy to see how this could also be mistakenly toggled during a bit of cockpit.
But here's the real headscratcher, Ed. How do we account for the aircraft's unexpected turn in the wrong direction?
This maneuver doesn't just happen with a slip of a switch or a misclick.
What might this tell us about the situation in the cockpit at that critical moment?
Let's unpack this mystery.
Let's talk about a riveting aspect of the MH370, mystery that has emerged from a Notable New York Times article by Matthew L. Wald and Michael S. Schmidt.
Change in Plains Path was entered via computer, published Monday, March 17, 2014.
The crux of the article discusses a pivotal change in the plane's path which was not executed manually but through a computer system.
Senior American officials suggest this alteration was likely programmed by someone with intimate knowledge of the aircraft's systems,
pointing to an insider's hand in the events that unfolded.
The discussion goes deeper into the flight management system, highlighting that the unexpected westward turn was keyed in between the captain and the first officer,
raising critical questions about the plane's final trajectory.
It's intriguing that the focus has now shifted towards the plane's cockpit with the captain and first officer under scrutiny.
The mystery deepens when considering the transponder and other communication devices were manually turned off,
further intensifying the debate around the plane's disappearance.
For those listeners just joining us, welcome to Flight Path Mysteries, the podcast where we dissect the intricacies of aviation incidents,
leaving no stone unturned.
Today, we're circling back to the enigmatic case of MH370, honing in on a crucial aspect of the incident, the training and oversight of the flight crew.
Now folks, imagine the cockpit.
We've got our captain fully engaged with the demanding task of piloting the aircraft, a full workload situation.
In such a scenario, it's virtually impossible for the captain to simultaneously monitor the first officer, especially one who's still in training.
Here's a curveball for you.
This first officer should, by all standards, have had an observer.
And why's that?
Well, a dive into the factual report, specifically the bottom of page 14, uncovers a startling revelation.
No records exist for first officer testing to support confidence Boeing 777.
That's right.
Rule 1.5.1 in the factual report of MAS370 lays it out pretty clearly.
These professional pilots are supposed to undergo initial and periodic checks with their performance evaluated in flight simulators and further assessed during actual commercial flights.
But if there's no records of the first officer completing these essential tests, what does that tell us?
It raises the question,
who was really responsible for overseeing the first officer during those critical moments of training?
And if the captain is in charge of the plane, how can he be expected to observe and ensure the first officer's competence?
This gap in the safety protocol might just be a piece of the puzzle we've been overlooking.
Let's picture the high stakes environment in that cockpit for a moment.
There's a mere nine minute window where everything changes for MH370.
And why exactly nine minutes?
Well, the details are in the reports.
Rolls Royce's engine monitoring data pinpoints 1241 with the aircraft just over 300 feet up.
And it's crucial to note the autopilot is reported as off.
So here's the scene.
The captain's hands are on the controls navigating the ascent.
Meanwhile, the first officer is keeping an eye on the instruments, playing his part in the duo that makes up a cockpit crew.
Then fast forward to 1252 and there's a critical shift.
The next report from Rolls Royce indicates that autopilot has been engaged and the plane has climbed to 22,000 feet.
We're zoning in on a pivotal 11 minute interval that could hold the key to the MH370 mystery.
At exactly 1242, the crew of Malaysian Flight 370 receives an unexpected instruction to cancel their standard instrument departure, the SID.
This isn't just a minor tweak.
It necessitates a significant modification in their flight plan.
Here's where our first officer comes into play.
Tasked with this sudden change, he's now responsible for programming a new course, directing the aircraft to a later waypoint.
To do this, the autopilot must be disengaged.
It's all manual from here.
He's got to delve into the flight management system, the heart of the aircraft's navigation, and key and new coordinates.
But what exactly unfolded as those inputs were made?
What was the sequence of actions?
The buttons pressed, the commands entered.
This is where the plot thickens.
And every detail matters.
We're left to unravel the significance of these adjustments and their potential impact on the fate of Flight 370.
Stay with us as we navigate through the fog of this aviation enigma.
Before we jet off any further into the skies of speculation, let's park on the tarmac of fact for a moment.
We're edging into the territory of Episode 2 titled, Night Over Water Change of Course.
This is where the night's darkness meets the deep waters of mystery.
In these essential 10 minutes from 1242 to 1252, MH370's destiny veered off the expected path.
We're going to lay out a minute by minute account of the communications
and dissect the autopilot's engagement.
Our key waypoint, EGARI.
Why there?
Why then?
The question of human error versus a mechanical hiccup looms over this course correction.
Was it a deliberate keystroke or an unanticipated glitch?
These are the questions that beckon us.
So, buckle up listeners as we prepare for takeoff into this crucial chapter of our investigation right here on clouded cockpits.
Stay tuned.
Ed, just wanted to get back to Episode 1, the pilot's last training day.
Why do you think media never considered the first officer and the errors a student pilot might make?
You've raised an excellent point, Marilyn.
This kind of tunnel vision, this lack of intimate knowledge of the industry, it can cloud judgment.
Speaking from 35 years in transportation, I can tell you, human error is not just a possibility, it's a common reality.
A staggering 90% of mistakes are due to human slip-ups.
Working so closely with the mechanics of transport, you get a gut feeling, a visceral awareness of when things are going awry.
Take, for instance, that incident with the bridge in Baltimore.
The crew knew they were inching too close.
The danger was imminent and yet despite every effort to avert the disaster,
it was as if the collision was drawn out in slow motion, they couldn't stop it.
It's this human factor, the fallibility in high pressure situations that we're dissecting in the case of MH370.
Let's navigate these choppy waters together and try to understand the human element behind the controls.
Let's dim the cabin lights and adjust our focus to the night flight conditions that enveloped MH370.
Introducing darkness into the equation adds a new layer of complexity, especially for our first officer,
who is still honing his craft.
The cockpit, a familiar landscape under the sun's gaze, transforms as night falls.
The once bright and legible console now becomes a canvas of shadows and artificial illumination.
For a trainee used to the clarity of daylight, this shift can be disorienting.
The switches, knobs and dials, bathe it in a glow that alters perception and potentially performance.
This nocturnal setting could be more than just a backdrop.
It may have been a critical factor, heightening the probability of errors.
As we unpack this shadowy chapter of the flight, we're reminded of the stark differences that night introduces
and how it might have played into the cascading events that led to MH370's mysterious path.
Let's continue to navigate these darkened skies and uncover what they reveal.
Ed, I recently watched that Netflix documentary on MH370, and Jeff Wise's interview really struck me.
He seemed so certain that the captain was solely responsible, suggesting the first officer was
too wet behind the ears to have played a part. This leaves us with two contrasting theories.
Which one seems more plausible to you?
That's the million dollar question, isn't it?
On one hand, we've got this almost cinematic tale of a calculated pilot orchestrating a vanishing
act with the precision of a mastermind. It's the kind of plot that's gripping, sure,
but it's also incredibly rare in reality.
Right, and then on the flip side there's the argument of human error, which, statistically speaking,
is far more common. It's less dramatic than a nefarious plot, but errors are part of being human,
especially under stress or inexperience.
Exactly, think about it. Making intentional errors to craft a perfect disappearance versus
a series of mistakes that lead to a tragic outcome. Occam's razor would suggest the simplest
explanation, often the one with the least assumptions, is more likely to be correct.
So you're leaning towards a more accidental series of events?
Given the first officer's inexperience, the nighttime flight conditions, and all the potential
for missteps, it seems to me a scenario rife with the chance for error. We need to consider
what mistakes could have been made in those critical 62 minutes after takeoff.
It's a sobering thought. Instead of a deliberate act of vanishing into thin air, we might be looking
at a chain reaction, a sequence of human errors that spiraled out of control. It's less sensational,
sure, but perhaps more tragically human.
I couldn't agree more. We have to look at the evidence with a rational lens and consider all
possible angles. It's not as simple as choosing the most thrilling narrative. It's about piecing
together the facts to find the truth.
And that's what we'll continue to explore in this series. Stay with us as we dive deeper into the
mystery of MH370 and search for answers in the realm of the rational and the human.
Marilyn, let's stay on course with our current trajectory. There's plenty of time to circle
back to the Netflix documentary and unpack the myriad of theories out there from the catastrophic
like being shot down to smoke inhalation, even hijacking. We'll lay all those theories out on
the tarmac in episode four aptly named a pilot, a hijacker, or a ghost. That's when we'll deep
dive into every angle and explore the full spectrum of possibilities that have been presented.
Ed, as we're analyzing the case of MH370, at the time the plane went missing,
you were in your 25th year on the railroad coupled with your dyslexic way of thinking
have provided you with a distinct vantage point. Tell us, how has this combination influenced
your approach to the mystery?
It's fascinating, Marilyn. Dyslexia, often misunderstood, actually equips you with a
different set of lenses to view problems. My experience in the high stakes world of railroads
where every decision counts has fine tuned my ability to pattern think to see the sequence in
the chaos. And speaking of pattern thinking, dyslexics like you often excel in STEM fields
despite the challenges with reading and writing. How do you think this applies to problem solving
in complex situations like that of MH370? Absolutely. Dyslexia doesn't touch your IQ.
It just reroutes how you process information. You mentioned STEM and it's no coincidence
that organizations like NASA value neurodiversity hiring individuals with dyslexia who bring a
different angle to problem solving. That's a powerful insight. So as a dyslexic thinker,
when you first heard about MH370, what struck you as a pattern or clue that others might have overlooked?
Well, dyslexics are known to excel in 3D thinking. When I looked at the flight path,
I saw it in layers and dimensions, not just a linear route. My brain started to connect
irregularities and possibilities, stripping away the improbable and zoning in on tangible evidence.
That's incredible, Ed. It's like having a mental map that can navigate beyond the two-dimensional.
Could this be the key to unlocking the answers we've been searching for?
It just might be, Marilyn. Dyslexia has taught me that every problem has a solution. You just need
to twist the cube and look at it from a new angle. And sometimes, that's where the answers have been
hiding all along. What an amazing perspective, Ed. Thank you for sharing that. Listeners,
join us as we continue to decode the enigma of MH370 with Ed's unique outlook guiding the way.
Remember, in the realm of mystery, the most extraordinary solutions come from minds that
refuse to follow a straight line. Absolutely, Marilyn. And there's a lot to look forward to.
In Episode 3, Echoes in the Ocean, Decoding Satellite Pings, will dive into the intricacies of 3D
thinking, particularly how it intersects with tools like Google Earth to analyze the flight path of
MH370. This technology allows us to think and visualize in three dimensions, providing a dynamic
model to hypothesize the plane's movements and final moments. I'll break down how this perspective
can offer us new insights and perhaps bring us closer to understanding the mystery, so make
sure to tune in for that deep dive in Episode 3. As we approach the end of our first episode,
I want to thank you all for joining us on this extraordinary journey into the unknown with MH370.
We've taken a deep dive thinking outside the box and exploring angles that haven't been considered
before. It's been a riveting discussion, Ed. And to our listeners, your curiosity and engagement
adds so much depth to our explorations. We hope you've found this session enlightening,
and that it sparked even more questions and theories for you to ponder. Absolutely, Marilyn.
And this is just the beginning. We invite you all to tune into our next episode,
Night Over Waters, The Change of Course, where we'll unravel the crucial moments that led to
the dramatic shift in MH370's flight path. We'll be delving deeper into the technical details,
the decisions made on board, and how these critical moments might unlock further secrets of this mystery.
We'll be delving deeper into the technical details, the decisions made on board,
and how these critical moments might unlock further secrets of this mystery.
So stay curious, keep questioning, and join us next time on Episode 2, Night Over Waters,
The Change of Course. Until then, keep looking beyond the horizon. Goodbye, everyone.
You have been listening to MH370, Vanishing Sky, Episode 1, The Pilot's Last Training Day.