WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.500 Welcome to the Deep Dive. We heard you loud and 00:00:02.500 --> 00:00:04.900 clear you wanted a closer look at how innovation 00:00:04.900 --> 00:00:08.359 actually, well, happens, how change moves through 00:00:08.359 --> 00:00:10.759 the world. Yeah, and specifically how things 00:00:10.759 --> 00:00:13.160 like information and communication technology, 00:00:13.220 --> 00:00:16.260 ICT, have really shaken up the old rules. Exactly. 00:00:16.300 --> 00:00:18.239 We're talking about that classic model, the S 00:00:18.239 --> 00:00:21.039 -curve, you know, that blueprint for how technologies 00:00:21.039 --> 00:00:23.420 get adopted. That's our focus today. We're breaking 00:00:23.420 --> 00:00:25.960 down that S -curve and showing you why, especially 00:00:25.960 --> 00:00:29.879 now in the 21st century, it looks Well, fundamentally 00:00:29.879 --> 00:00:32.100 different. It's like it's been pull -taught, 00:00:32.380 --> 00:00:34.200 straightened out, and made much more volatile. 00:00:34.579 --> 00:00:36.539 Right, so for anyone maybe not familiar, the 00:00:36.539 --> 00:00:39.359 classic S -curve maps out this typical journey. 00:00:39.719 --> 00:00:42.579 Starts slow, only a few innovators jump in. Uh 00:00:42.579 --> 00:00:44.780 -huh, the early adopters. Then boom, suddenly 00:00:44.780 --> 00:00:47.719 there's the steep climb, mass acceptance, everyone 00:00:47.719 --> 00:00:50.380 gets on board. And then finally, it levels off, 00:00:50.579 --> 00:00:53.100 it plateaus. Either because, you know, everyone 00:00:53.100 --> 00:00:56.100 who wants one has one market saturation, or the 00:00:56.100 --> 00:00:58.350 tech itself just hits a limit. It's a really 00:00:58.350 --> 00:01:01.289 foundational idea for understanding tech history, 00:01:01.909 --> 00:01:04.629 but the sources we looked at, particularly Gary 00:01:04.629 --> 00:01:07.049 Ackerman's work, point out something crucial. 00:01:07.590 --> 00:01:11.930 The curve for today's ICT, it's not just faster, 00:01:12.069 --> 00:01:15.370 it's different in like two big ways structurally. 00:01:15.430 --> 00:01:17.709 That's the core insight. It's changed fundamentally. 00:01:17.790 --> 00:01:21.030 So let's unpack that. First, this idea that the 00:01:21.030 --> 00:01:22.870 curve is straightening out. Yeah, accelerating. 00:01:22.969 --> 00:01:24.989 And second, how we get from one curve to the 00:01:24.989 --> 00:01:27.719 next, that moment of innovation. It's become 00:01:27.719 --> 00:01:30.280 way more disruptive than it used to be. Understanding 00:01:30.280 --> 00:01:32.900 those two forces, acceleration and disruption, 00:01:33.700 --> 00:01:36.519 is... Oh, it's pretty critical if you're trying 00:01:36.519 --> 00:01:39.599 to navigate or plan for pretty much anything 00:01:39.599 --> 00:01:41.579 today. Okay, let's tackle that acceleration first, 00:01:41.760 --> 00:01:43.879 the straightening S -curve. Right. So what we 00:01:43.879 --> 00:01:46.400 mean by straining is really a massive compression 00:01:46.400 --> 00:01:48.959 of the whole cycle. The time it takes. Exactly. 00:01:49.120 --> 00:01:50.900 The time it takes for a technology to go from 00:01:50.900 --> 00:01:53.439 being this obscure thing only a few people know 00:01:53.439 --> 00:01:57.549 about to being... everywhere. Yeah. Almost ubiquitous. 00:01:57.670 --> 00:01:59.930 That time frame has just collapsed. Yeah. I was 00:01:59.930 --> 00:02:02.049 looking at the historical data in the sources. 00:02:02.590 --> 00:02:05.150 It really throws the speed difference into sharp 00:02:05.150 --> 00:02:07.049 relief, doesn't it? Oh, absolutely. It shows 00:02:07.049 --> 00:02:09.870 it's not just a gradual speed up. It's like a 00:02:09.870 --> 00:02:12.530 genuine break, a discontinuity. So give us some 00:02:12.530 --> 00:02:15.729 examples. OK. Think about reaching, say, 50 million 00:02:15.729 --> 00:02:18.770 users. The sources mentioned radio took several 00:02:18.770 --> 00:02:21.930 decades to hit that number globally. Decades 00:02:21.930 --> 00:02:24.330 Wow all that infrastructure the physical sets 00:02:24.330 --> 00:02:26.610 precisely lots of physical stuff needed then 00:02:26.610 --> 00:02:29.490 television comes along a bit faster much faster 00:02:29.490 --> 00:02:32.210 relatively speaking down to just a few years 00:02:32.210 --> 00:02:34.250 Infrastructure was getting better mass production 00:02:34.250 --> 00:02:36.689 was kicking in okay still years though still 00:02:36.689 --> 00:02:39.530 years, but then yeah, you jump into the digital 00:02:39.530 --> 00:02:43.349 age ICT think about platforms like YouTube how 00:02:43.349 --> 00:02:46.590 long for them months mere months to hit 50 million 00:02:46.590 --> 00:02:49.610 users. Decades to months. That's the straightening 00:02:49.610 --> 00:02:51.810 curve in action. It's a list of a gentle S shape 00:02:51.810 --> 00:02:54.569 and more like a vertical takeoff followed by 00:02:54.569 --> 00:02:57.169 a sudden flat top. That difference is just huge. 00:02:57.669 --> 00:03:00.949 But why? Why is ICT so different from radio or 00:03:00.949 --> 00:03:03.710 TV? It's not just that we suddenly got better 00:03:03.710 --> 00:03:06.330 at adopting things, is it? No, no, absolutely 00:03:06.330 --> 00:03:11.250 not. The fundamental difference is economic and 00:03:11.250 --> 00:03:13.770 infrastructural. Those classic S -curves. They 00:03:13.770 --> 00:03:15.889 were held back by physical stuff. Constraints. 00:03:16.150 --> 00:03:18.229 Physical constraints, yeah. Yeah. And marginal 00:03:18.229 --> 00:03:21.169 costs. For radio, like you said, you needed transmitters, 00:03:21.370 --> 00:03:24.289 licenses, factories making radios, shops selling 00:03:24.289 --> 00:03:26.969 them. Every single new listener costs something 00:03:26.969 --> 00:03:29.250 significant to add. Right, a physical investment 00:03:29.250 --> 00:03:32.449 for each new user. But with digital stuff, software, 00:03:32.930 --> 00:03:36.069 apps, online platforms, it's a whole different 00:03:36.069 --> 00:03:38.159 ballgame. How so? Well, once you've built the 00:03:38.159 --> 00:03:40.500 basic platform, the cost to add one more user, 00:03:40.819 --> 00:03:43.659 or 10 million more users. It's tiny. It's virtually 00:03:43.659 --> 00:03:46.099 zero. Plus, you have the power of network effects. 00:03:46.319 --> 00:03:48.419 Ah, where it gets more valuable the more people 00:03:48.419 --> 00:03:51.620 use it. Exactly. That creates this viral loop, 00:03:51.800 --> 00:03:53.780 this acceleration that physical goods just couldn't 00:03:53.780 --> 00:03:55.580 achieve in the same way. The network's already 00:03:55.580 --> 00:03:57.879 there, the internet. Adoption can be almost instant, 00:03:58.180 --> 00:04:00.080 global. That's what pulls that curve up, right? 00:04:00.199 --> 00:04:04.240 Okay, so that shift from physical friction slowing 00:04:04.240 --> 00:04:07.680 things down to this almost frictionless digital 00:04:07.680 --> 00:04:10.900 spread, that must completely change how organizations 00:04:10.900 --> 00:04:14.020 plan for the future. Oh, totally. It turns planning 00:04:14.020 --> 00:04:16.120 on its head. Think back to the 20th century. 00:04:16.519 --> 00:04:19.920 Those broad, slow S -curves meant you had time. 00:04:20.120 --> 00:04:22.139 You could see a trend coming. Yeah, you could 00:04:22.139 --> 00:04:24.899 spot a new technology, watch it for a bit, maybe 00:04:24.899 --> 00:04:27.600 form a committee. You had, I don't know, five, 00:04:27.620 --> 00:04:29.540 ten years sometimes to adjust your strategy, 00:04:29.860 --> 00:04:32.860 retrain people, change how you do things. Slowly. 00:04:33.060 --> 00:04:36.500 That sounds nice, actually. A bit leisurely. 00:04:36.839 --> 00:04:39.079 It was a luxury, looking back. But the sources 00:04:39.079 --> 00:04:41.560 are clear. 21st century planning happens under 00:04:41.560 --> 00:04:44.560 these straight S -curves. Things move so fast. 00:04:44.680 --> 00:04:46.779 That by the time you're sure it's a real trend. 00:04:46.819 --> 00:04:49.180 You're already halfway up the curve. Maybe more. 00:04:49.560 --> 00:04:51.480 And the next thing is already starting its climb. 00:04:51.879 --> 00:04:54.019 Planning becomes less about catching one wave 00:04:54.019 --> 00:04:56.699 and more about Well, continuous reinvention. 00:04:56.959 --> 00:04:59.540 Continuous reinvention. That sounds exhausting. 00:05:00.000 --> 00:05:02.259 How can any organization, like a school system 00:05:02.259 --> 00:05:04.620 or a business, commit resources if they know 00:05:04.620 --> 00:05:07.379 the whole setup might be obsolete in, say, 18 00:05:07.379 --> 00:05:10.339 months? Does it just lead to paralysis? That's 00:05:10.339 --> 00:05:11.740 the million dollar question, isn't it? Yeah. 00:05:11.819 --> 00:05:13.980 It's the core challenge. The old way, wait and 00:05:13.980 --> 00:05:16.660 see, then make a big, long -term plan that just 00:05:16.660 --> 00:05:18.660 doesn't work anymore. So what's the alternative? 00:05:19.579 --> 00:05:23.199 Agility. Modularity. You're not planning for 00:05:23.199 --> 00:05:25.240 the peach of this curve anymore. You have to 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:27.800 be constantly scanning the horizon, looking for 00:05:27.800 --> 00:05:29.540 the start of the next one. It's like juggling. 00:05:29.639 --> 00:05:31.560 You might have two or three cycles going at once 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:34.160 in different stages. So less about perfecting 00:05:34.160 --> 00:05:37.660 the current system, more about adapting constantly. 00:05:37.879 --> 00:05:40.800 Exactly. The mindset shifts from optimization 00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:43.639 to adaptation. OK, that constant hunt for the 00:05:43.639 --> 00:05:46.439 next curve, that leads us right into the second 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.779 big trend you mentioned. Right. Innovation by 00:05:48.779 --> 00:05:51.939 replacement. It's not just about speed. It's 00:05:51.939 --> 00:05:54.779 about how the new replaces the old. How does 00:05:54.779 --> 00:05:57.259 that work? Well, innovation often happens when 00:05:57.259 --> 00:06:00.160 one S -curve basically pushes another one out, 00:06:00.540 --> 00:06:02.920 replaces it. And that moment of replacement, 00:06:02.980 --> 00:06:05.959 that shift, often forces a complete rethink of 00:06:05.959 --> 00:06:07.980 whatever the technology was doing. And why does 00:06:07.980 --> 00:06:09.819 a curve plateau in the first place? You mentioned 00:06:09.819 --> 00:06:13.220 saturation. Saturation is one reason. But often, 00:06:13.480 --> 00:06:15.740 as the sources point out, it's because the technology 00:06:15.740 --> 00:06:18.480 or the practice hits some kind of wall, a physical 00:06:18.480 --> 00:06:20.980 limit maybe, or it just stops being as effective 00:06:20.980 --> 00:06:24.160 within its existing setup. So if we still need 00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:26.560 the function like calculation or communication, 00:06:27.540 --> 00:06:29.959 something new has to come along. Exactly. Something 00:06:29.959 --> 00:06:33.180 that does the same job but smashes through that 00:06:33.180 --> 00:06:35.120 old limit. And the sources say there are different 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:38.360 ways this replacement happens. Smooth versus 00:06:38.360 --> 00:06:42.079 not so smooth. Yeah, basically two flavors. Smooth 00:06:42.079 --> 00:06:44.579 and disruptive. Let's look at the smooth kind 00:06:44.579 --> 00:06:47.620 first. This often happens with like core hardware 00:06:47.620 --> 00:06:50.000 technology. OK. The sources use the evolution 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:52.319 of computers as an example here, right? Case 00:06:52.319 --> 00:06:55.850 one, smooth transition. Perfect example. Think 00:06:55.850 --> 00:06:57.930 about what powers computers. We went from these 00:06:57.930 --> 00:07:00.949 big, hot, clunky vacuum tubes. Right. Room -sized 00:07:00.949 --> 00:07:03.730 computers. To much smaller, more efficient transistors. 00:07:03.990 --> 00:07:06.649 And then later, another leap to integrated silicon 00:07:06.649 --> 00:07:09.050 circuits, microchips. Those sound like massive 00:07:09.050 --> 00:07:11.149 changes technologically. Why were they smooth? 00:07:11.569 --> 00:07:13.910 Because, from the perspective of the designers 00:07:13.910 --> 00:07:16.490 and the users, these changes were largely welcomed. 00:07:16.790 --> 00:07:19.230 They were seen as upgrades. Even though the underlying 00:07:19.230 --> 00:07:22.050 tech was totally different. Yeah. Because the 00:07:22.050 --> 00:07:24.180 function didn't radically change. and the change 00:07:24.180 --> 00:07:27.319 was mainly additive. The computer still did computation 00:07:27.319 --> 00:07:29.720 right. The new tech just let it do it vastly 00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:33.600 faster, smaller, cheaper, using less power. So 00:07:33.600 --> 00:07:35.660 the people building and using the computers didn't 00:07:35.660 --> 00:07:37.959 have to fundamentally rethink what a computer 00:07:37.959 --> 00:07:40.379 was or what it did. Pretty much. They just got 00:07:40.379 --> 00:07:43.110 a massively better engine. The limits being hit 00:07:43.110 --> 00:07:46.230 were physical heat, size, speed of electrons. 00:07:46.769 --> 00:07:49.230 The new tech solved those physical problems. 00:07:49.870 --> 00:07:52.470 It increased capacity within the existing idea 00:07:52.470 --> 00:07:54.509 of computing. OK, the structure stayed intact, 00:07:54.610 --> 00:07:56.589 just the components got better. Makes sense. 00:07:56.670 --> 00:07:59.290 It was a capacity -increasing transition welcomed 00:07:59.290 --> 00:08:01.569 by the people involved. But, and there's always 00:08:01.569 --> 00:08:04.449 a but, the story changes when the innovation 00:08:04.449 --> 00:08:07.129 isn't just swapping out hardware bits, when it 00:08:07.129 --> 00:08:10.290 hits people systems. Exactly. That takes us to 00:08:10.290 --> 00:08:13.060 case two. disruptive transitions. This is where 00:08:13.060 --> 00:08:15.240 it gets messy. What makes it disruptive? It's 00:08:15.240 --> 00:08:17.560 especially true when the innovation happens in 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:19.920 what we might call social technologies. Things 00:08:19.920 --> 00:08:24.240 like education or journalism or governance. The 00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:26.199 systems and habits and institutions we build. 00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:28.579 There was that mention of the book disrupting 00:08:28.579 --> 00:08:32.299 class. Out education. Right. That work highlights 00:08:32.299 --> 00:08:35.220 this distinction really well. Why is introducing 00:08:35.220 --> 00:08:38.679 say a new type of software for learning often 00:08:38.679 --> 00:08:41.340 so much more disruptive than introducing a new 00:08:41.340 --> 00:08:43.600 microchip. Because the microchip doesn't have 00:08:43.600 --> 00:08:48.580 feelings or a union. Well, kind of. Hardware 00:08:48.580 --> 00:08:51.820 doesn't have entrenched cultural norms or established 00:08:51.820 --> 00:08:54.899 job roles or decades of bureaucratic procedure 00:08:54.899 --> 00:08:57.480 built around it. But social systems do. Absolutely. 00:08:57.720 --> 00:09:00.279 Take that education example. If a new model emerges, 00:09:00.919 --> 00:09:03.220 maybe highly personalized adaptive learning software, 00:09:03.659 --> 00:09:05.679 it isn't just a new tool teachers can choose 00:09:05.679 --> 00:09:08.679 to use. It challenges the whole system. Potentially, 00:09:08.779 --> 00:09:11.019 yes. It might challenge the teacher's traditional 00:09:11.019 --> 00:09:13.500 role, the need for standard classroom hours, 00:09:13.899 --> 00:09:16.059 the way schools are administered, even the idea 00:09:16.059 --> 00:09:18.279 of a centralized curriculum. So the technology 00:09:18.279 --> 00:09:21.100 might promise the same outcome, learning, education, 00:09:21.200 --> 00:09:23.039 but getting there requires changing how people 00:09:23.039 --> 00:09:25.320 work, their status, the established routines. 00:09:25.700 --> 00:09:28.200 The power structures, the budgets, all of it. 00:09:28.620 --> 00:09:32.460 And that creates resistance, friction. It's disruptive 00:09:32.460 --> 00:09:35.269 because the limit isn't just physical. It's the 00:09:35.269 --> 00:09:37.429 existing social structure that's hitting its 00:09:37.429 --> 00:09:40.929 limit of effectiveness or adaptability. Got it. 00:09:41.049 --> 00:09:43.210 Can you give another example, maybe outside education? 00:09:43.750 --> 00:09:46.929 Sure. Think about traditional news media, newspapers, 00:09:47.269 --> 00:09:49.529 network television news. That was a huge social 00:09:49.529 --> 00:09:52.210 technology, right? Definitely. The newsroom structure, 00:09:52.730 --> 00:09:55.669 the printing presses, the delivery trucks. Exactly. 00:09:55.909 --> 00:09:59.440 That whole S -curve. relied on things like geographic 00:09:59.440 --> 00:10:02.039 monopolies, physical distribution, advertisers 00:10:02.039 --> 00:10:04.480 paying for print space. Their limit wasn't running 00:10:04.480 --> 00:10:06.539 out of paper. It was the effectiveness of that 00:10:06.539 --> 00:10:08.919 entire model once the internet arrived. Precisely. 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:11.539 The newspaper's social structure, the reporter's 00:10:11.539 --> 00:10:13.940 role, the editor's power, the ad sales team, 00:10:14.279 --> 00:10:16.860 the reliance on a daily print cycle hit its effectiveness 00:10:16.860 --> 00:10:20.440 limit when ICT offered zero marginal cost distribution, 00:10:20.980 --> 00:10:23.500 instant updates, global reach. And a totally 00:10:23.500 --> 00:10:26.200 different advertising model. Right. The new S 00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:29.299 -curve, digital news, offered the same basic 00:10:29.299 --> 00:10:33.049 function information, but required essentially 00:10:33.049 --> 00:10:36.049 dismantling the old organization jobs disappeared 00:10:36.049 --> 00:10:38.730 roles changed the relationship with the audience 00:10:38.730 --> 00:10:41.309 was redefined that's disruption okay that really 00:10:41.309 --> 00:10:43.610 clarifies the two forces we've got these hyper 00:10:43.610 --> 00:10:47.090 fast straight adoption curves meaning we have 00:10:47.090 --> 00:10:49.389 very little time to react. And the innovations 00:10:49.389 --> 00:10:52.370 that replace old ways, especially in human systems, 00:10:52.529 --> 00:10:55.269 are often deeply disruptive, forcing fundamental 00:10:55.269 --> 00:10:58.129 change. It makes planning incredibly complex. 00:10:58.289 --> 00:11:00.529 You're dealing with speed and structural upheaval 00:11:00.529 --> 00:11:03.620 simultaneously. That idea of continuous reinvention 00:11:03.620 --> 00:11:06.399 seems key then. It's not just about adopting 00:11:06.399 --> 00:11:08.779 new tools. No, it's often about reinventing the 00:11:08.779 --> 00:11:10.899 whole structure around the tools and doing it 00:11:10.899 --> 00:11:13.080 fast. The question shifts from how do we build 00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:15.980 this system to last 20 years to how fast can 00:11:15.980 --> 00:11:18.299 we build, deploy, and then maybe even dismantle 00:11:18.299 --> 00:11:20.519 a system that might only be the best option for 00:11:20.519 --> 00:11:23.200 20 months. Wow. So the old S -curve was this 00:11:23.200 --> 00:11:26.480 graceful, predictable arc, gave stability. Yeah, 00:11:26.580 --> 00:11:29.240 allowed it for maturity. But the modern ICT driven 00:11:29.240 --> 00:11:33.519 curve is more like... Sharp, rapid steps up, 00:11:33.879 --> 00:11:36.059 where each step requires rebuilding the landing 00:11:36.059 --> 00:11:38.240 you just left. That's a good way to put it. And 00:11:38.240 --> 00:11:40.960 the pace seems to be accelerating still. Coping 00:11:40.960 --> 00:11:43.740 with that speed and that depth of change. That's 00:11:43.740 --> 00:11:45.940 really the defining challenge for organizations, 00:11:46.200 --> 00:11:48.600 for leaders, for all of us really. A powerful 00:11:48.600 --> 00:11:51.919 summary. So for you listening, as you think about 00:11:51.919 --> 00:11:54.299 all this... Here's something to chew on after 00:11:54.299 --> 00:11:56.399 this deep dive. Yeah, take this back to your 00:11:56.399 --> 00:11:59.100 world. Think about the shift from those slow, 00:11:59.379 --> 00:12:02.840 broad curves to these fast, straight, often disruptive 00:12:02.840 --> 00:12:05.659 ones. Now look at your industry, your field. 00:12:06.080 --> 00:12:08.480 What long established social technology, maybe 00:12:08.480 --> 00:12:10.940 it's a bureaucratic process, a traditional workflow, 00:12:11.120 --> 00:12:13.820 a regulatory system, anything based on human 00:12:13.820 --> 00:12:16.620 habits and structures, what system do you see 00:12:16.620 --> 00:12:18.840 hitting its limits, its effectiveness cap? And 00:12:18.840 --> 00:12:22.820 then ask yourself. What kind of disruptive replacement, 00:12:22.899 --> 00:12:25.100 maybe something already quietly gaining traction 00:12:25.100 --> 00:12:27.759 on its own fast S -curve, might be poised to 00:12:27.759 --> 00:12:29.440 challenge or even shatter it? Something to keep 00:12:29.440 --> 00:12:31.299 an eye out for, especially the next time you 00:12:31.299 --> 00:12:33.820 run into a process that feels way too rigid for 00:12:33.820 --> 00:12:34.419 today's world.