Imagine waking up every day knowing exactly what the day holds.
Every conversation, every outcome, every minor event detailed out for you.
Sounds comforting, doesn't it?
But let's pause and consider what if this certainty is nothing more than an illusion?
What if the very essence of life is not knowing?
In today's episode of Unscripted Life, the podcast that confronts you with the hard truth
that life has no script and much of what you've been taught is an illusion, we delve deep
into the myth of certainty.
We'll explore how uncertainty isn't just a part of life, it might actually drive it.
I'm your host Alan Stafford.
Join me as we dive into a fascinating discussion on the illusion of certainty.
As we begin to peel back the layers of what we often take for granted to comforting blanket
of certainty, it's clear there's much more to explore about how we interact with the
unknown.
Why do our minds gravitate towards predictable patterns and how does this influence our daily
lives?
In our first segment today, we'll dive into the psychological underpinnings of this phenomenon.
We'll examine how our brains are wired to seek certainty and the profound effects this
has on our behavior and decision making.
So let's explore what drives our need for certainty beginning with a look into our
own psychology.
Welcome to the heart of our discussion today, folks.
It's fascinating how much our minds crave predictability.
And you know there's a reason for this, deeply embedded in how our brains function.
So we're going to take a look at why we lean towards certainty and what it means for us.
First off, think of our brains as prediction machines.
If you will.
I mean, we like to predict it, but I'm not talking about as in realistic predictions.
They are constantly anticipating future events based on our past experiences, not just to
keep us safe, but also to be efficient.
Our brains try to conserve energy by operating in familiar scenarios where we can easily
predict outcomes.
And this is less demanding than navigating the unknown.
Research from the University of California has shown that our prefrontal cortex, the
area largely responsible for this prediction, this processing, becomes less active when
it's in familiar situations.
This conserves mental energy for more demanding tasks, which basically illustrates a fundamental
aspect of our cognitive function known as resource depletion.
You see, when we push our brains through extended periods of intense thinking, we experience
mental fatigue.
And I'm sure you've experienced this before at some point, if not almost every day for
some people and for some people, not at all.
And I'm not saying this, I mean, this isn't just about feeling tired.
It's about the physiological and psychological demands placed on our brains.
Despite weighing only about 2% of our body's mass, the brain uses roughly 20% of our energy
resources.
That's one-fifth of our energy resources comes from 2% of our body mass.
And intense activities such as problem solving or decision making for those of us who engage
in this daily or even weekly, deplete these energy stores.
And this leads basically to what is known as cognitive or mental fatigue.
And this fatigue can also be influenced by neurotransmitter depletion such as dopamine,
which is crucial for motivation and rewards with us humans.
An extended mental effort reduces dopamine levels, decreasing motivation and increasing
our fatigue.
And additional factors include stress responses and decision fatigue.
So basically the more decisions we make, the more our brain resources are drained from
us.
Emotional drain is another aspect, specifically with tasks involving emotional regulation
like resolving conflicts.
So if you're involved with conflict resolution daily or processing emotional information,
which I think each and every one of us are engaged in at some point, if not daily, every
other day or weekly.
I mean, folks, that's a lot of resource consumption for an organ that weighs on average about
three pounds or about 1.3 1.4 kilograms.
That's a pretty powerful organ in the human body, the mind.
But we already know that, right?
And it's no wonder that it does get tired just like any muscle.
But this is an organ does get tired over time or throughout the day if we exercise it too
much with mental capacities.
Now that we understand how our brains conserve energy by predicting based on past experiences,
we're going to take a look at how this influences our perceptions and our decisions.
I mean, this brings us to something called cognitive biases.
And I'm certain you've probably heard that before.
And if you're not quite sure what they are, think of them as the brain's own set of shortcuts.
These biases help us process information quickly, but they can sometimes lead us to make errors
in thinking and decision making.
Cognitive biases are more than just minor glitches in our thought process.
I mean, they are deeply rooted mechanisms that help our brain streamline processing
and avoid this, uh, the fatigue that comes with constant decision making.
However, when we come back, we'll find out what happens when these shortcuts lead us
astray.
Okay, we're talking about the role of cognitive biases, folks, consider how often we stick
to what's familiar.
I mean, you do that almost daily, right?
If not, I mean, I know you do that daily.
I'm going to sit there and be a betting man and say, you do that daily.
And this tendency is rooted.
This tendency to stick with what we know is familiar is rooted in cognitive biases.
Take confirmation bias, for example, it's when we favor information that confirms what
we already believe.
It feels right, doesn't it?
I mean, we tend to gravitate towards like-minded news programming.
However, a study by Stanford University highlights that confirmation bias not only strengthens
our existing beliefs, but also makes us less open to accepting new, contradicting information.
And this can be quite limiting, trapping us in what is known as our old patterns of thought
and preventing personal and intellectual growth.
And we see that.
We see that in this country where we've got pretty much a divided country where confirmation
bias confirms our own beliefs through the media.
And as a result, we stick with that belief system, not allowing other ideas and other
possibilities to come into play into our thinking.
So it's this cognitive bias, and it's helping us, it's preserving our, it's helping us by
conserving energy and not consuming energy in our brain so we don't get exhausted or
tired or fatigued, but it doesn't do us any good intellectually.
So as we see how these biases can limit our thinking, it's important to consider another
profound impact of relying too heavily on the familiar.
And that is the stress response to uncertainty.
Meaning how you respond with stress, or the stressful response to uncertainty.
So when faced with situations that defy our expectations, or when we're forced to deal
with unknown outcomes, our body reacts in quite a very specific way.
Because dealing with the unknown is not just mentally exhausting.
It is stressful, people, stressful.
Think about a time when you had to deal with the unknown and you wanted the certainty, the
guarantee.
How did that make you feel?
I mean, our body's stress response, you know, that same one that kicks in for fight or flight
also activates when we face uncertainty.
And research published in the Journal of Nature demonstrates that higher levels of uncertainty
lead to higher stress responses.
I mean, this isn't just uncomfortable.
Chronic stress can lead to serious health issues like heart disease and depression.
And this is all tied to us not knowing.
This is why we crave certainty.
But what are the solutions?
Well, for starters, mindfulness is a powerful tool.
And there is no shortage of information about how to practice mindfulness.
There are apps out there, books out there, programs out there, courses out there, you
name it, it exists.
Just go to YouTube, type in mindfulness practice, and you'll find a plethora.
I love that word plethora of information.
And mindfulness involves being present in the moment and accepting things as they are.
And that is without judgment.
And we are such a judgmental species, folks.
Mindfulness practices have been shown to lower stress and improve decision making, helping
us break away from the need for certainty.
And how does this do this?
Because by being mindful, we can better tolerate uncertainty and reduce its impact on our stress
levels.
And I practice that every morning after I get up, I get my cup of coffee, I sit on my
reading chair, and I practice mindful thinking.
Practice on my breathing, staying focused, and only dealing with those things that I
can control.
And uncertainty is one thing that I can't.
Thus, I eliminate the worry for me.
Another solution would be to actively challenge our cognitive biases.
This means seeking out information that contradicts our preconceptions and being open to new
experiences.
It's hard for people.
It's going to be a little bit tough for those of you who are just so stuck in your way.
But if you really want to grow cognitively, if you want to grow intellectually, you're
going to need to challenge your cognitive biases.
It's about being curious.
And studies suggest that fostering curiosity can enhance our ability to manage uncertainty
by turning potential stress into what they call a sense of wonder and an interest.
So basically, we want to turn uncertainty into a curiosity factor.
So for example, if you think one way, let's say you lean towards the world is flat.
I love that one.
The flat earthers.
The world is flat.
Why don't you challenge yourself and do some research and see why everyone's saying that
it's actually a sphere, slightly a long sphere at that.
So basically, I'm telling you to get a little curious, set aside your strong, passionate
beliefs and entertain some new ideas.
You might get exposed to things that you've never considered and it may change your perspective.
And that's okay if it changes your perspective because I'm a person that says, I mean, I
am not set in anything other than show me the proof, show me the science, I will change
my mind.
And finally, building resilience.
I mean, this isn't about toughening up in the traditional sense, as in building resilience,
getting out there and sucking it up buttercup.
It's about cultivating a flexible response to change and to stress.
And research supports that resilience training can enhance your ability to cope with uncertainty,
making you more adaptable in a rapidly changing world.
And there are books about how to become mentally tough.
It's all about the mind, folks, because pretty much our reality stems or begins in the brain.
So if we can manage that, we can manage almost anything.
So consider how these insights might change the way you view uncertainty in your own life.
I mean, could embracing the unknown rather than fearing it enrich your experiences?
So consider these insights, which are mindfulness, challenging cognitive biases and building resilience.
Consider them and how they might change the way you view uncertainty in your life.
I mean, could embracing the unknown rather than fearing it enrich your experiences?
And I believe it can, because I know some of you are saying, no, it's not, I'm not
changing my mind.
Just think about it, folks.
Think about that.
Give yourself a chance to explore ideas that you typically do not explore.
Okay, moving from the realm of our personal psychology, where uncertainty can both challenge
and change us, let's zoom out and consider a broader canvas.
Imagine the world of business and economics, where decisions aren't just about individual
choices, but about the fates of companies and economies.
And we've seen this time and again.
I mean, how do businesses manage the fog of uncertainty that hangs over future events
in their decisions?
So in this next section, we're going to explore how uncertainty influences economic decisions
and strategies used to navigate this unpredictable terrain.
All right, first up, let's dive into risk management, which serves as a safety net in
the business world.
And if you're a business owner, or you work in risk management, you're going to understand
exactly what I'm talking about.
Because businesses face a constant barrage of uncertainties from volatile market conditions
to sudden shifts of consumer behavior, and we saw that with the dot com and the whole
digital marketing change and everything that's online now.
Effective risk management is all about identifying these potential risks, assessing their impact
and crafting strategies to mitigate those risks.
The aim here is to minimize negative outcomes and capture opportunities, even during unstable
times.
For example, Apple has brilliantly diversified its product range beyond just computers in
the smartphones, wearables, and services, reducing its dependencies on any single product
line.
And similarly, Amazon has expanded from its roots in online retail, specifically bookselling
into domains like cloud computing with AWS, Amazon Web Services, and streaming with Prime
video spreading its risk across various sectors.
And then there's also Walmart's strategic growth.
Basically, their growth in e-commerce and grocery delivery services bolstered its traditional
retail business against changing consumer habits, moving from your typical brick and
mortar into the digital and delivery realm.
However, not all companies navigate these waters very successfully, as we've seen over
time.
Take a look at Kodak, if any of you remember the film company.
Kodak, for instance, famously failed to pivot from its film based routes to digital photography,
despite having early innovations in digital cameras.
And they were one of the first companies out there building digital technology for larger
camera companies like Nikon and Canon.
And it's their reluctance to adapt that led to its downfall.
Similarly, Sears struggled to keep pace with evolving consumer preferences and the risk
of e-commerce ultimately filing for bankruptcy in 2018 after years and years of declining
sales and they've made a lot of mistakes.
And as we see how crucial effective risk management is in adapting to changes and safeguarding
the future, it leads us to another vital aspect of navigating uncertainties.
Economic forecasting.
Just as businesses assessed and strategized based on identified risks, economists try
to forecast future market conditions to prepare for what might lie ahead.
Let's take a look at how these predictions are made and their significance in both business
world and broader economic planning.
Much like meteorologists predict weather, well, they try to predict weather.
Sometimes it's not right.
But again, it's just a prediction.
Okay, we're not saying that they're getting this down to a 100% accuracy, but they get
it.
They get it pretty close.
So anyway, like meteorologists, when they predict weather, economists and analysts use
various methods or models and data analysis to forecast financial conditions.
No forecast can be perfect, as I've said.
The economy after all isn't a machine with predictable outputs, but these forecasts
are essential for our businesses to operate effectively and successfully.
The forecast provides businesses and governments with crucial insights, helping them strategize
and prepare for potential shifts in the economic landscape.
So despite their best effort, the unpredictable can still occur, folks.
And we already know this with everything.
And this unpredictability often reshapes scenarios dramatically.
And we know this because we've seen this firsthand.
I mean, we've seen the significance and challenges of economic forecasting take the 2008 financial
crisis, for instance.
I mean, the sudden collapse of major financial institutions and ensuing global recession
caught many of us, most of us, that are not in the economic world or finance world by
surprise, basically highlighting the complexities of predicting economic downturns.
And more recently, and we all live through this, the COVID-19 pandemic, which served
as another stark reminder of predictability gone wrong.
And we don't have to say what it did, but we know it disrupted global markets almost
overnight.
It took a few months, but almost overnight illustrating how swiftly and severely uncertainty
can impact our global economy.
And folks, despite our best efforts in forecasting attempts to pierce the veil of future market
conditions, it is clear that despite our best models and analyses, uncertainty remains a
constant companion.
And this brings us to our next segment, where we dive into the philosophical and existential
dimensions of uncertainty.
Philosophy has long wrestled with the unknown, offering rich perspectives that challenge
our need for concrete answers.
From the existentialists who embrace uncertainty as a fundamental aspect of human freedom to
diverse cultural philosophies that offer unique ways of understanding and coping with the
unpredictable.
We're going to take a look at these ideas and see what they can teach us about living
in a world where certainty is more of an exception than the rule when we come back.
Okay, as we transition from the empirical analysis of economies to the more introspective
realm of philosophy, we encounter diverse perspectives on uncertainty.
So philosophy not only probes the nature of knowledge and existence, but also offers profound
insights into how we can navigate life's inherent uncertainties.
We're going to take a look at these rich philosophical and existential views, basically
exploring how these different thinkers and cultures confront and embrace the unknown.
First let's consider existentialism.
And I'm certain you've probably heard of existentialist philosophy.
And if not, that's okay, because it's basically a philosophical movement that fundamentally
views uncertainty as an essential part of human experience.
Existentialists like Jean-Paul Sartre and Albert Camus argue that life inherently lacks
predefined meaning.
There's no determinism in life.
And this ambiguity isn't something to fear, but it's something to embrace.
It's within the uncertainty that freedom lies, the freedom to create one's own meaning
and value in an indifferent universe.
Sartre's concept of existence precedes essence, basically encapsulates this idea, suggesting
that individuals first exist without purpose, and must then forge their own essence through
actions and choice.
It goes along the line that life is happenstance.
We are basically freaks of nature.
We're here by accident.
So there is no purpose to our life.
But basically he argues how we, we humans, forge our own essence, our own existence,
our own purpose through our actions and the choices that we make.
And I kind of believe that.
I go along with that there.
And we can also support that by taking an example from Camus's book or essay, The Myth
of Sysphus.
It's a 1942 essay written by Camus where he uses the tale of Sysphus endlessly pushing
his boulder.
It's a 1942 essay written by Camus where he uses the tale of Sysphus endlessly pushing
his boulder up a hill as a metaphor for human existence.
Camus argues that recognizing the absurdity of life enables us to live with the rebellion
against this absurdity, a profound acceptance of uncertainty.
I mean existentialism is not just the only philosophical movement that has this type
of belief.
There are others out there.
But basically, again, to recap, it's telling us that because we're just happenstance, that
life has no purpose and it really doesn't, if you think about it, what is the purpose?
Keep away all of the fictional reality stories that you've been told about, religion, government,
freedom, culture, everything.
Because these are things that are made up and put in our heads.
Ask yourself, what is the meaning of life without all of these stories that we tell
ourselves to live by?
Well, there is no meaning.
There's no purpose.
It's just by chance.
We define that meaning as we move through life ourselves.
And we can see that cultural perspectives on certainty kind of mirror the philosophical
ones in a way, because many cultures have unique ways of handling uncertainty.
I mean, so if you take a look at many Eastern philosophies such as Taoism, Taoism and Buddhism,
and there's an inherent acceptance of life's flux, the Tao Te Ching, for instance, teaches
the virtue of Wu Wee or effortless action, advising adherents to the natural flow of
life, which is constantly changing and inherently uncertain itself.
And similarly, Buddhism teaches the concept of impermanence, which encourages adherents
to accept and embrace the transient nature of all things, as in life is just happenstance,
and embrace it.
And on the flip side, we can contrast these Eastern philosophies with Western philosophical
tradition where much of the thought has been around reducing uncertainty.
We're looking to reduce uncertainty through scientific and rational methods.
We can contrast Eastern philosophy with Western philosophical tradition where much of the
thought has revolved around reducing uncertainty through scientific and rational methods.
However, and I say however, modern Western philosophies also have begun to touch on
embracing uncertainty.
And this is evident in the works of postmodern philosophers like Jacques Derrida, who basically
highlight the limitations of definite interpretations and meanings.
Jacques Derrida was a philosopher known for his ideas about how we understand and interpret
texts and the world around us.
He basically believed that words and texts don't have one fixed meaning.
Instead, meanings can change depending on the context and the reader's perspective.
Derrida pointed out that whenever we try to pin down the exact meaning of a word or a
phrase, there's always room for different interpretations.
He argued that this uncertainty isn't something to solve but a fundamental aspect of how language
works and how we communicate.
Essentially, Derrida taught that we should be open to multiple meanings and perspectives,
recognizing that certainty in interpretations is often an illusion.
And I agree with that as well.
Because words are an illusion itself.
Think about it.
What is a word?
And we're going to get into this in a whole other podcast at some point.
But words.
Words only have meaning if you assign meaning to them and they mean different things to
different peoples.
And some cultures have multiple words for one thing, whereas other cultures don't have a
word for that thing at all.
So in essence, a word is just something we assign a meaning to and we can detach that
meaning from the word and make it mean something else.
That's pretty profound.
And so the question I ask is how can these philosophical insights affect our daily lives?
So by integrating existential principles, we can find personal empowerment in decision-making,
accepting that while outcomes are uncertain, our choices are meaningful.
So how can these philosophical insights affect our daily lives, folks?
Well for starters, by integrating existentialist principles, we can find personal empowerment
in decision-making, accepting that while outcomes are uncertain, our choices are meaningful.
And that's important for our psyche.
And embracing cultural wisdoms like Wu-Wi can help reduce stress by promoting a more
flexible approach to life's unpredictabilities.
These philosophies teach us not just to cope with uncertainty, but to see it as a space
for growth and creativity.
Especially what we're saying is be flexible in thought, accept the unknown, and stress
less about it.
So in exploring these philosophical and existential insights, we find a common thread, the acknowledgment
and acceptance of uncertainty is not just a fact of life, but is a crucial element of
human freedom and creativity.
Whether through the defiant acceptance of the absurd in existentialism or the serene
acknowledgment of impermanence in eastern philosophies, embracing uncertainty can enrich
our lives, allowing us to navigate the unknown with resilience and with grace.
Ok folks, as we wrap up today's journey through the realm of psychology, economics, and philosophy,
it's clear that uncertainty isn't just a sporadic challenge to be navigated.
It permeates every facet of our lives.
From the decisions we make in business to the personal existential questions about our
purpose and place in the world, uncertainty is a constant companion.
Make it your friend.
We've seen how our brains are wired to seek certainty, yet how embracing the unknown
can lead to richer, more empowered living.
Economically, understanding uncertainty helps us prepare for potential downturns and harness
opportunities that volatile markets may present.
Similarly we've explored how thinkers like Jean-Paul Sartre and cultural teachings from
around the world encourage us to find freedom and authenticity in uncertainty, teaching us
that life's true beauty often lies in its unpredictability.
So what does this mean for you?
Can you find ways to embrace the uncertainty in your own life?
Perhaps you can see it not as a daunting abyss, but as a canvas of possibility, where each
unscripted moment is an opportunity for creativity and growth.
You see it starts in your head.
You've got the power to make that choice.
There's nothing concrete around you making that choice but your own thoughts.
And I encourage you to reflect on today's discussion and identify areas in your life
where you can apply these insights, folks.
Maybe it's a decision you've been putting off because you're not sure of the outcome
or perhaps it's a conversation you need to have despite knowing where it's going to lead
you.
But if you deal with uncertainty, what philosophies guide you through uncharted waters?
And as you ponder these thoughts, I invite you to share your experiences with those
around you.
Or you can jump onto our YouTube channel and share your thoughts there.
And remember, you can listen to us on your favorite podcast network, whether it's Spotify,
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Tune in anytime, anywhere, and join us as we explore more intriguing topics.
I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for tuning in.
And remember, the beauty of life isn't just in the destinations we reach, but in the
mysteries we navigate along the way.