1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:06,400 Imagine waking up every day knowing exactly what the day holds. 2 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:13,500 Every conversation, every outcome, every minor event detailed out for you. 3 00:00:13,500 --> 00:00:15,200 Sounds comforting, doesn't it? 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:22,960 But let's pause and consider what if this certainty is nothing more than an illusion? 5 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:28,000 What if the very essence of life is not knowing? 6 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:32,520 In today's episode of Unscripted Life, the podcast that confronts you with the hard truth 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:38,600 that life has no script and much of what you've been taught is an illusion, we delve deep 8 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:40,840 into the myth of certainty. 9 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:47,160 We'll explore how uncertainty isn't just a part of life, it might actually drive it. 10 00:00:47,160 --> 00:00:48,400 I'm your host Alan Stafford. 11 00:00:48,400 --> 00:01:00,840 Join me as we dive into a fascinating discussion on the illusion of certainty. 12 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:05,000 As we begin to peel back the layers of what we often take for granted to comforting blanket 13 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:09,920 of certainty, it's clear there's much more to explore about how we interact with the 14 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,640 unknown. 15 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:16,880 Why do our minds gravitate towards predictable patterns and how does this influence our daily 16 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,600 lives? 17 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:23,760 In our first segment today, we'll dive into the psychological underpinnings of this phenomenon. 18 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:28,620 We'll examine how our brains are wired to seek certainty and the profound effects this 19 00:01:28,620 --> 00:01:32,520 has on our behavior and decision making. 20 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,440 So let's explore what drives our need for certainty beginning with a look into our 21 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:38,800 own psychology. 22 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:40,800 Welcome to the heart of our discussion today, folks. 23 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:46,040 It's fascinating how much our minds crave predictability. 24 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:51,280 And you know there's a reason for this, deeply embedded in how our brains function. 25 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:56,720 So we're going to take a look at why we lean towards certainty and what it means for us. 26 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:01,520 First off, think of our brains as prediction machines. 27 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:02,520 If you will. 28 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:07,440 I mean, we like to predict it, but I'm not talking about as in realistic predictions. 29 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:12,880 They are constantly anticipating future events based on our past experiences, not just to 30 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,920 keep us safe, but also to be efficient. 31 00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:22,160 Our brains try to conserve energy by operating in familiar scenarios where we can easily 32 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,720 predict outcomes. 33 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:29,280 And this is less demanding than navigating the unknown. 34 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,720 Research from the University of California has shown that our prefrontal cortex, the 35 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:39,280 area largely responsible for this prediction, this processing, becomes less active when 36 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,640 it's in familiar situations. 37 00:02:42,640 --> 00:02:47,840 This conserves mental energy for more demanding tasks, which basically illustrates a fundamental 38 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,840 aspect of our cognitive function known as resource depletion. 39 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:58,160 You see, when we push our brains through extended periods of intense thinking, we experience 40 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,320 mental fatigue. 41 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:04,200 And I'm sure you've experienced this before at some point, if not almost every day for 42 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:08,400 some people and for some people, not at all. 43 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,560 And I'm not saying this, I mean, this isn't just about feeling tired. 44 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:17,240 It's about the physiological and psychological demands placed on our brains. 45 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:25,960 Despite weighing only about 2% of our body's mass, the brain uses roughly 20% of our energy 46 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:26,960 resources. 47 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:33,200 That's one-fifth of our energy resources comes from 2% of our body mass. 48 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:38,480 And intense activities such as problem solving or decision making for those of us who engage 49 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:42,960 in this daily or even weekly, deplete these energy stores. 50 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:47,360 And this leads basically to what is known as cognitive or mental fatigue. 51 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:52,440 And this fatigue can also be influenced by neurotransmitter depletion such as dopamine, 52 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:58,880 which is crucial for motivation and rewards with us humans. 53 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:04,240 An extended mental effort reduces dopamine levels, decreasing motivation and increasing 54 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,880 our fatigue. 55 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:12,240 And additional factors include stress responses and decision fatigue. 56 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:17,880 So basically the more decisions we make, the more our brain resources are drained from 57 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:19,040 us. 58 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,920 Emotional drain is another aspect, specifically with tasks involving emotional regulation 59 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:25,880 like resolving conflicts. 60 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,040 So if you're involved with conflict resolution daily or processing emotional information, 61 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,200 which I think each and every one of us are engaged in at some point, if not daily, every 62 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:35,200 other day or weekly. 63 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:41,000 I mean, folks, that's a lot of resource consumption for an organ that weighs on average about 64 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,760 three pounds or about 1.3 1.4 kilograms. 65 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,640 That's a pretty powerful organ in the human body, the mind. 66 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,880 But we already know that, right? 67 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,980 And it's no wonder that it does get tired just like any muscle. 68 00:04:52,980 --> 00:04:58,600 But this is an organ does get tired over time or throughout the day if we exercise it too 69 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,600 much with mental capacities. 70 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:08,720 Now that we understand how our brains conserve energy by predicting based on past experiences, 71 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,920 we're going to take a look at how this influences our perceptions and our decisions. 72 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:17,320 I mean, this brings us to something called cognitive biases. 73 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,160 And I'm certain you've probably heard that before. 74 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:25,880 And if you're not quite sure what they are, think of them as the brain's own set of shortcuts. 75 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:31,560 These biases help us process information quickly, but they can sometimes lead us to make errors 76 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,600 in thinking and decision making. 77 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,920 Cognitive biases are more than just minor glitches in our thought process. 78 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,960 I mean, they are deeply rooted mechanisms that help our brain streamline processing 79 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:47,160 and avoid this, uh, the fatigue that comes with constant decision making. 80 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:52,600 However, when we come back, we'll find out what happens when these shortcuts lead us 81 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,600 astray. 82 00:05:55,600 --> 00:06:03,800 Okay, we're talking about the role of cognitive biases, folks, consider how often we stick 83 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:04,800 to what's familiar. 84 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,360 I mean, you do that almost daily, right? 85 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:08,800 If not, I mean, I know you do that daily. 86 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,960 I'm going to sit there and be a betting man and say, you do that daily. 87 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,160 And this tendency is rooted. 88 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:19,000 This tendency to stick with what we know is familiar is rooted in cognitive biases. 89 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:24,080 Take confirmation bias, for example, it's when we favor information that confirms what 90 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:25,960 we already believe. 91 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:27,200 It feels right, doesn't it? 92 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,720 I mean, we tend to gravitate towards like-minded news programming. 93 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:38,200 However, a study by Stanford University highlights that confirmation bias not only strengthens 94 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:46,560 our existing beliefs, but also makes us less open to accepting new, contradicting information. 95 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:51,960 And this can be quite limiting, trapping us in what is known as our old patterns of thought 96 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,640 and preventing personal and intellectual growth. 97 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:55,920 And we see that. 98 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:01,320 We see that in this country where we've got pretty much a divided country where confirmation 99 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,880 bias confirms our own beliefs through the media. 100 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:09,680 And as a result, we stick with that belief system, not allowing other ideas and other 101 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,880 possibilities to come into play into our thinking. 102 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:18,640 So it's this cognitive bias, and it's helping us, it's preserving our, it's helping us by 103 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,920 conserving energy and not consuming energy in our brain so we don't get exhausted or 104 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:27,680 tired or fatigued, but it doesn't do us any good intellectually. 105 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:33,200 So as we see how these biases can limit our thinking, it's important to consider another 106 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:37,560 profound impact of relying too heavily on the familiar. 107 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:42,080 And that is the stress response to uncertainty. 108 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:48,200 Meaning how you respond with stress, or the stressful response to uncertainty. 109 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:53,280 So when faced with situations that defy our expectations, or when we're forced to deal 110 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:59,440 with unknown outcomes, our body reacts in quite a very specific way. 111 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:03,120 Because dealing with the unknown is not just mentally exhausting. 112 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:06,560 It is stressful, people, stressful. 113 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:11,440 Think about a time when you had to deal with the unknown and you wanted the certainty, the 114 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:12,440 guarantee. 115 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:13,640 How did that make you feel? 116 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:19,760 I mean, our body's stress response, you know, that same one that kicks in for fight or flight 117 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,280 also activates when we face uncertainty. 118 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:27,000 And research published in the Journal of Nature demonstrates that higher levels of uncertainty 119 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,400 lead to higher stress responses. 120 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,920 I mean, this isn't just uncomfortable. 121 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:37,640 Chronic stress can lead to serious health issues like heart disease and depression. 122 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:41,000 And this is all tied to us not knowing. 123 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,760 This is why we crave certainty. 124 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:45,280 But what are the solutions? 125 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:49,680 Well, for starters, mindfulness is a powerful tool. 126 00:08:49,680 --> 00:08:54,080 And there is no shortage of information about how to practice mindfulness. 127 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:57,280 There are apps out there, books out there, programs out there, courses out there, you 128 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,360 name it, it exists. 129 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,880 Just go to YouTube, type in mindfulness practice, and you'll find a plethora. 130 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,960 I love that word plethora of information. 131 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:13,840 And mindfulness involves being present in the moment and accepting things as they are. 132 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,320 And that is without judgment. 133 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,040 And we are such a judgmental species, folks. 134 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:25,720 Mindfulness practices have been shown to lower stress and improve decision making, helping 135 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,120 us break away from the need for certainty. 136 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,320 And how does this do this? 137 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:36,680 Because by being mindful, we can better tolerate uncertainty and reduce its impact on our stress 138 00:09:36,680 --> 00:09:37,680 levels. 139 00:09:37,680 --> 00:09:43,080 And I practice that every morning after I get up, I get my cup of coffee, I sit on my 140 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:48,840 reading chair, and I practice mindful thinking. 141 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:54,080 Practice on my breathing, staying focused, and only dealing with those things that I 142 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,200 can control. 143 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,760 And uncertainty is one thing that I can't. 144 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,920 Thus, I eliminate the worry for me. 145 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:08,000 Another solution would be to actively challenge our cognitive biases. 146 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:14,400 This means seeking out information that contradicts our preconceptions and being open to new 147 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:15,840 experiences. 148 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:16,840 It's hard for people. 149 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,320 It's going to be a little bit tough for those of you who are just so stuck in your way. 150 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,520 But if you really want to grow cognitively, if you want to grow intellectually, you're 151 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,880 going to need to challenge your cognitive biases. 152 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,240 It's about being curious. 153 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:35,400 And studies suggest that fostering curiosity can enhance our ability to manage uncertainty 154 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:41,000 by turning potential stress into what they call a sense of wonder and an interest. 155 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:48,280 So basically, we want to turn uncertainty into a curiosity factor. 156 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:55,520 So for example, if you think one way, let's say you lean towards the world is flat. 157 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:56,520 I love that one. 158 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:57,920 The flat earthers. 159 00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:59,360 The world is flat. 160 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:04,400 Why don't you challenge yourself and do some research and see why everyone's saying that 161 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:09,880 it's actually a sphere, slightly a long sphere at that. 162 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,720 So basically, I'm telling you to get a little curious, set aside your strong, passionate 163 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,320 beliefs and entertain some new ideas. 164 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:22,440 You might get exposed to things that you've never considered and it may change your perspective. 165 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,520 And that's okay if it changes your perspective because I'm a person that says, I mean, I 166 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:31,200 am not set in anything other than show me the proof, show me the science, I will change 167 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,040 my mind. 168 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:34,680 And finally, building resilience. 169 00:11:34,680 --> 00:11:39,200 I mean, this isn't about toughening up in the traditional sense, as in building resilience, 170 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,520 getting out there and sucking it up buttercup. 171 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:48,040 It's about cultivating a flexible response to change and to stress. 172 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:53,640 And research supports that resilience training can enhance your ability to cope with uncertainty, 173 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,480 making you more adaptable in a rapidly changing world. 174 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,320 And there are books about how to become mentally tough. 175 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:07,360 It's all about the mind, folks, because pretty much our reality stems or begins in the brain. 176 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:11,660 So if we can manage that, we can manage almost anything. 177 00:12:11,660 --> 00:12:17,280 So consider how these insights might change the way you view uncertainty in your own life. 178 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:22,680 I mean, could embracing the unknown rather than fearing it enrich your experiences? 179 00:12:22,680 --> 00:12:30,080 So consider these insights, which are mindfulness, challenging cognitive biases and building resilience. 180 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:34,000 Consider them and how they might change the way you view uncertainty in your life. 181 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,800 I mean, could embracing the unknown rather than fearing it enrich your experiences? 182 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,000 And I believe it can, because I know some of you are saying, no, it's not, I'm not 183 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,080 changing my mind. 184 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:45,080 Just think about it, folks. 185 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:46,440 Think about that. 186 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:51,560 Give yourself a chance to explore ideas that you typically do not explore. 187 00:12:51,560 --> 00:12:57,360 Okay, moving from the realm of our personal psychology, where uncertainty can both challenge 188 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,640 and change us, let's zoom out and consider a broader canvas. 189 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,920 Imagine the world of business and economics, where decisions aren't just about individual 190 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,880 choices, but about the fates of companies and economies. 191 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,800 And we've seen this time and again. 192 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:15,720 I mean, how do businesses manage the fog of uncertainty that hangs over future events 193 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,040 in their decisions? 194 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:23,000 So in this next section, we're going to explore how uncertainty influences economic decisions 195 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,680 and strategies used to navigate this unpredictable terrain. 196 00:13:26,680 --> 00:13:32,160 All right, first up, let's dive into risk management, which serves as a safety net in 197 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:33,160 the business world. 198 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:37,640 And if you're a business owner, or you work in risk management, you're going to understand 199 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,560 exactly what I'm talking about. 200 00:13:39,560 --> 00:13:44,680 Because businesses face a constant barrage of uncertainties from volatile market conditions 201 00:13:44,680 --> 00:13:49,000 to sudden shifts of consumer behavior, and we saw that with the dot com and the whole 202 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:54,960 digital marketing change and everything that's online now. 203 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:59,520 Effective risk management is all about identifying these potential risks, assessing their impact 204 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,760 and crafting strategies to mitigate those risks. 205 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:09,520 The aim here is to minimize negative outcomes and capture opportunities, even during unstable 206 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:10,520 times. 207 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:16,320 For example, Apple has brilliantly diversified its product range beyond just computers in 208 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:22,080 the smartphones, wearables, and services, reducing its dependencies on any single product 209 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,080 line. 210 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:29,520 And similarly, Amazon has expanded from its roots in online retail, specifically bookselling 211 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:34,920 into domains like cloud computing with AWS, Amazon Web Services, and streaming with Prime 212 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,480 video spreading its risk across various sectors. 213 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,560 And then there's also Walmart's strategic growth. 214 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:46,800 Basically, their growth in e-commerce and grocery delivery services bolstered its traditional 215 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:52,640 retail business against changing consumer habits, moving from your typical brick and 216 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:57,000 mortar into the digital and delivery realm. 217 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:01,840 However, not all companies navigate these waters very successfully, as we've seen over 218 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:02,840 time. 219 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:07,000 Take a look at Kodak, if any of you remember the film company. 220 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,880 Kodak, for instance, famously failed to pivot from its film based routes to digital photography, 221 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,880 despite having early innovations in digital cameras. 222 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:21,160 And they were one of the first companies out there building digital technology for larger 223 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,920 camera companies like Nikon and Canon. 224 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,080 And it's their reluctance to adapt that led to its downfall. 225 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,960 Similarly, Sears struggled to keep pace with evolving consumer preferences and the risk 226 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:37,920 of e-commerce ultimately filing for bankruptcy in 2018 after years and years of declining 227 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,040 sales and they've made a lot of mistakes. 228 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:45,280 And as we see how crucial effective risk management is in adapting to changes and safeguarding 229 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:51,480 the future, it leads us to another vital aspect of navigating uncertainties. 230 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,240 Economic forecasting. 231 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:58,560 Just as businesses assessed and strategized based on identified risks, economists try 232 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:05,200 to forecast future market conditions to prepare for what might lie ahead. 233 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,840 Let's take a look at how these predictions are made and their significance in both business 234 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,520 world and broader economic planning. 235 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:16,240 Much like meteorologists predict weather, well, they try to predict weather. 236 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:17,600 Sometimes it's not right. 237 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:18,800 But again, it's just a prediction. 238 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:23,360 Okay, we're not saying that they're getting this down to a 100% accuracy, but they get 239 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:24,360 it. 240 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,920 They get it pretty close. 241 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:32,200 So anyway, like meteorologists, when they predict weather, economists and analysts use 242 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:38,080 various methods or models and data analysis to forecast financial conditions. 243 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,840 No forecast can be perfect, as I've said. 244 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:45,880 The economy after all isn't a machine with predictable outputs, but these forecasts 245 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:51,520 are essential for our businesses to operate effectively and successfully. 246 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:56,640 The forecast provides businesses and governments with crucial insights, helping them strategize 247 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,840 and prepare for potential shifts in the economic landscape. 248 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:06,480 So despite their best effort, the unpredictable can still occur, folks. 249 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,800 And we already know this with everything. 250 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:14,880 And this unpredictability often reshapes scenarios dramatically. 251 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,360 And we know this because we've seen this firsthand. 252 00:17:17,360 --> 00:17:23,360 I mean, we've seen the significance and challenges of economic forecasting take the 2008 financial 253 00:17:23,360 --> 00:17:24,840 crisis, for instance. 254 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:31,000 I mean, the sudden collapse of major financial institutions and ensuing global recession 255 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:36,720 caught many of us, most of us, that are not in the economic world or finance world by 256 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:41,600 surprise, basically highlighting the complexities of predicting economic downturns. 257 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:46,000 And more recently, and we all live through this, the COVID-19 pandemic, which served 258 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:51,400 as another stark reminder of predictability gone wrong. 259 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,680 And we don't have to say what it did, but we know it disrupted global markets almost 260 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:55,680 overnight. 261 00:17:55,680 --> 00:18:00,840 It took a few months, but almost overnight illustrating how swiftly and severely uncertainty 262 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,360 can impact our global economy. 263 00:18:04,360 --> 00:18:10,840 And folks, despite our best efforts in forecasting attempts to pierce the veil of future market 264 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:17,320 conditions, it is clear that despite our best models and analyses, uncertainty remains a 265 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,560 constant companion. 266 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:25,800 And this brings us to our next segment, where we dive into the philosophical and existential 267 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,000 dimensions of uncertainty. 268 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:33,840 Philosophy has long wrestled with the unknown, offering rich perspectives that challenge 269 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,280 our need for concrete answers. 270 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,920 From the existentialists who embrace uncertainty as a fundamental aspect of human freedom to 271 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:46,800 diverse cultural philosophies that offer unique ways of understanding and coping with the 272 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:47,800 unpredictable. 273 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:52,280 We're going to take a look at these ideas and see what they can teach us about living 274 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:59,800 in a world where certainty is more of an exception than the rule when we come back. 275 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:06,960 Okay, as we transition from the empirical analysis of economies to the more introspective 276 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:14,080 realm of philosophy, we encounter diverse perspectives on uncertainty. 277 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:19,040 So philosophy not only probes the nature of knowledge and existence, but also offers profound 278 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:23,640 insights into how we can navigate life's inherent uncertainties. 279 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:28,840 We're going to take a look at these rich philosophical and existential views, basically 280 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:34,800 exploring how these different thinkers and cultures confront and embrace the unknown. 281 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,240 First let's consider existentialism. 282 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,600 And I'm certain you've probably heard of existentialist philosophy. 283 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,720 And if not, that's okay, because it's basically a philosophical movement that fundamentally 284 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:51,280 views uncertainty as an essential part of human experience. 285 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:58,680 Existentialists like Jean-Paul Sartre and Albert Camus argue that life inherently lacks 286 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:00,040 predefined meaning. 287 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:04,880 There's no determinism in life. 288 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:10,720 And this ambiguity isn't something to fear, but it's something to embrace. 289 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:15,720 It's within the uncertainty that freedom lies, the freedom to create one's own meaning 290 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,160 and value in an indifferent universe. 291 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:26,920 Sartre's concept of existence precedes essence, basically encapsulates this idea, suggesting 292 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:33,480 that individuals first exist without purpose, and must then forge their own essence through 293 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,080 actions and choice. 294 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,200 It goes along the line that life is happenstance. 295 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,360 We are basically freaks of nature. 296 00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:42,720 We're here by accident. 297 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,360 So there is no purpose to our life. 298 00:20:45,360 --> 00:20:51,680 But basically he argues how we, we humans, forge our own essence, our own existence, 299 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,280 our own purpose through our actions and the choices that we make. 300 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:56,600 And I kind of believe that. 301 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,960 I go along with that there. 302 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:04,680 And we can also support that by taking an example from Camus's book or essay, The Myth 303 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:05,840 of Sysphus. 304 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:12,640 It's a 1942 essay written by Camus where he uses the tale of Sysphus endlessly pushing 305 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,440 his boulder. 306 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:20,080 It's a 1942 essay written by Camus where he uses the tale of Sysphus endlessly pushing 307 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,160 his boulder up a hill as a metaphor for human existence. 308 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:30,440 Camus argues that recognizing the absurdity of life enables us to live with the rebellion 309 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:35,360 against this absurdity, a profound acceptance of uncertainty. 310 00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:41,200 I mean existentialism is not just the only philosophical movement that has this type 311 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:42,200 of belief. 312 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:43,960 There are others out there. 313 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:48,680 But basically, again, to recap, it's telling us that because we're just happenstance, that 314 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:54,000 life has no purpose and it really doesn't, if you think about it, what is the purpose? 315 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:59,960 Keep away all of the fictional reality stories that you've been told about, religion, government, 316 00:21:59,960 --> 00:22:02,480 freedom, culture, everything. 317 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,960 Because these are things that are made up and put in our heads. 318 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:09,600 Ask yourself, what is the meaning of life without all of these stories that we tell 319 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,000 ourselves to live by? 320 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,440 Well, there is no meaning. 321 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:13,440 There's no purpose. 322 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:14,440 It's just by chance. 323 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:18,560 We define that meaning as we move through life ourselves. 324 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:24,640 And we can see that cultural perspectives on certainty kind of mirror the philosophical 325 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:29,000 ones in a way, because many cultures have unique ways of handling uncertainty. 326 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:35,640 I mean, so if you take a look at many Eastern philosophies such as Taoism, Taoism and Buddhism, 327 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:41,880 and there's an inherent acceptance of life's flux, the Tao Te Ching, for instance, teaches 328 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:47,400 the virtue of Wu Wee or effortless action, advising adherents to the natural flow of 329 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:52,720 life, which is constantly changing and inherently uncertain itself. 330 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:58,120 And similarly, Buddhism teaches the concept of impermanence, which encourages adherents 331 00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:05,400 to accept and embrace the transient nature of all things, as in life is just happenstance, 332 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:06,400 and embrace it. 333 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:11,540 And on the flip side, we can contrast these Eastern philosophies with Western philosophical 334 00:23:11,540 --> 00:23:15,080 tradition where much of the thought has been around reducing uncertainty. 335 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:20,400 We're looking to reduce uncertainty through scientific and rational methods. 336 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:25,960 We can contrast Eastern philosophy with Western philosophical tradition where much of the 337 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:31,440 thought has revolved around reducing uncertainty through scientific and rational methods. 338 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:37,320 However, and I say however, modern Western philosophies also have begun to touch on 339 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,120 embracing uncertainty. 340 00:23:39,120 --> 00:23:47,280 And this is evident in the works of postmodern philosophers like Jacques Derrida, who basically 341 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:51,440 highlight the limitations of definite interpretations and meanings. 342 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:56,480 Jacques Derrida was a philosopher known for his ideas about how we understand and interpret 343 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,360 texts and the world around us. 344 00:23:59,360 --> 00:24:02,920 He basically believed that words and texts don't have one fixed meaning. 345 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:08,640 Instead, meanings can change depending on the context and the reader's perspective. 346 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:14,600 Derrida pointed out that whenever we try to pin down the exact meaning of a word or a 347 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:19,520 phrase, there's always room for different interpretations. 348 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:25,040 He argued that this uncertainty isn't something to solve but a fundamental aspect of how language 349 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,400 works and how we communicate. 350 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:32,960 Essentially, Derrida taught that we should be open to multiple meanings and perspectives, 351 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:37,520 recognizing that certainty in interpretations is often an illusion. 352 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,480 And I agree with that as well. 353 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,680 Because words are an illusion itself. 354 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:42,680 Think about it. 355 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:43,680 What is a word? 356 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,800 And we're going to get into this in a whole other podcast at some point. 357 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,840 But words. 358 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,280 Words only have meaning if you assign meaning to them and they mean different things to 359 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:53,280 different peoples. 360 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,480 And some cultures have multiple words for one thing, whereas other cultures don't have a 361 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,000 word for that thing at all. 362 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,080 So in essence, a word is just something we assign a meaning to and we can detach that 363 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,480 meaning from the word and make it mean something else. 364 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,960 That's pretty profound. 365 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:13,560 And so the question I ask is how can these philosophical insights affect our daily lives? 366 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:19,600 So by integrating existential principles, we can find personal empowerment in decision-making, 367 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,800 accepting that while outcomes are uncertain, our choices are meaningful. 368 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,560 So how can these philosophical insights affect our daily lives, folks? 369 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:32,240 Well for starters, by integrating existentialist principles, we can find personal empowerment 370 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:39,600 in decision-making, accepting that while outcomes are uncertain, our choices are meaningful. 371 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,480 And that's important for our psyche. 372 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:47,480 And embracing cultural wisdoms like Wu-Wi can help reduce stress by promoting a more 373 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:51,360 flexible approach to life's unpredictabilities. 374 00:25:51,360 --> 00:25:55,720 These philosophies teach us not just to cope with uncertainty, but to see it as a space 375 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,920 for growth and creativity. 376 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,520 Especially what we're saying is be flexible in thought, accept the unknown, and stress 377 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:04,920 less about it. 378 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:10,840 So in exploring these philosophical and existential insights, we find a common thread, the acknowledgment 379 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:15,800 and acceptance of uncertainty is not just a fact of life, but is a crucial element of 380 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:19,200 human freedom and creativity. 381 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,880 Whether through the defiant acceptance of the absurd in existentialism or the serene 382 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:29,480 acknowledgment of impermanence in eastern philosophies, embracing uncertainty can enrich 383 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:34,760 our lives, allowing us to navigate the unknown with resilience and with grace. 384 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:39,520 Ok folks, as we wrap up today's journey through the realm of psychology, economics, and philosophy, 385 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:45,040 it's clear that uncertainty isn't just a sporadic challenge to be navigated. 386 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,920 It permeates every facet of our lives. 387 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,600 From the decisions we make in business to the personal existential questions about our 388 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:58,120 purpose and place in the world, uncertainty is a constant companion. 389 00:26:58,120 --> 00:27:00,240 Make it your friend. 390 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,920 We've seen how our brains are wired to seek certainty, yet how embracing the unknown 391 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,880 can lead to richer, more empowered living. 392 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,800 Economically, understanding uncertainty helps us prepare for potential downturns and harness 393 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:18,280 opportunities that volatile markets may present. 394 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:23,280 Similarly we've explored how thinkers like Jean-Paul Sartre and cultural teachings from 395 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:28,600 around the world encourage us to find freedom and authenticity in uncertainty, teaching us 396 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:33,800 that life's true beauty often lies in its unpredictability. 397 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,300 So what does this mean for you? 398 00:27:35,300 --> 00:27:39,560 Can you find ways to embrace the uncertainty in your own life? 399 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:45,600 Perhaps you can see it not as a daunting abyss, but as a canvas of possibility, where each 400 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,800 unscripted moment is an opportunity for creativity and growth. 401 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,160 You see it starts in your head. 402 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,840 You've got the power to make that choice. 403 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:59,480 There's nothing concrete around you making that choice but your own thoughts. 404 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:03,200 And I encourage you to reflect on today's discussion and identify areas in your life 405 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,080 where you can apply these insights, folks. 406 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,000 Maybe it's a decision you've been putting off because you're not sure of the outcome 407 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:14,240 or perhaps it's a conversation you need to have despite knowing where it's going to lead 408 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,240 you. 409 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:19,880 But if you deal with uncertainty, what philosophies guide you through uncharted waters? 410 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:24,080 And as you ponder these thoughts, I invite you to share your experiences with those 411 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,080 around you. 412 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,160 Or you can jump onto our YouTube channel and share your thoughts there. 413 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,640 And remember, you can listen to us on your favorite podcast network, whether it's Spotify, 414 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:40,480 Apple Podcast, YouTube, iHeartRadio, or anywhere else you enjoy your audio content. 415 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,520 Just search for a podcast name, unfiltered life with Alan Stafford. 416 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,680 Hit subscribe and you'll never miss an episode. 417 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,840 Tune in anytime, anywhere, and join us as we explore more intriguing topics. 418 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,200 I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for tuning in. 419 00:28:56,200 --> 00:29:01,160 And remember, the beauty of life isn't just in the destinations we reach, but in the 420 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:16,760 mysteries we navigate along the way.