1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:06,280 What is an expert take a second or a few seconds to think about what an expert is I 2 00:00:07,020 --> 00:00:08,120 mean 3 00:00:08,120 --> 00:00:11,900 From a young age we are indoctrinated to buy into 4 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:15,080 What an expert has to say whether it be a police officer? 5 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:17,320 Whether it be a 6 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,480 scientist a medical doctor a 7 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:28,160 Teacher we are presented this script that experts know everything and we should listen and follow the experts 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,720 Well, I'm not here to tell you that 9 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:36,200 We shouldn't listen to experts. I'm just questioning where do they get their knowledge from? 10 00:00:36,480 --> 00:00:43,460 What makes them authoritative and should we always listen to the experts and when should we not listen to an expert? 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:50,040 Because really when it comes down to it experts are just like you and I they are human beings 12 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,000 susceptible to the same 13 00:00:53,000 --> 00:01:00,220 Cognitive biases that we are all plagued with they don't possess anything different than you and I do except for 14 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:06,120 Advanced information in a specific subject matter, and it's not always 100% 15 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:13,960 So basically experts are just like you and I as I've said with just a little bit more information 16 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:19,800 That makes them more knowledgeable than us because I certainly don't want to be operating on myself. I 17 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:24,400 Don't know about you, but if I have an appendix of my appendix break bursts 18 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:30,440 I don't want to be doing an operation on my own appendix because I don't know what I'm doing and nor would I want to do it on a family member 19 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,920 I mean, I don't know. Maybe some people would want to do that 20 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,200 So hold on to your hats folks because in today's episode 21 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:45,760 We're gonna descend into this rabbit hole of an expertise and dissect the elusive world of experts 22 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:47,920 Are they gods or mortals? 23 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,800 And when should you listen to them if ever? 24 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:59,840 Welcome to life on scripted the podcast that just hits you with the hard truth that life has no script and everything you've been taught is 25 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:06,800 Illusion I'm Alan Stafford your host join me in this episode as the breakdown with experts are 26 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,160 Whether you said listen to them or not 27 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,160 Okay 28 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:23,560 Welcome folks look at I'm probably gonna get myself in a little bit of trouble here with the the so-called experts 29 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:25,680 especially 30 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,200 The self-proclaimed experts those are my favorite 31 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:35,600 But really the point of this whole podcast is to break down what an expert is and that we shouldn't always 32 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:40,040 Have to take their word for what they say because they are 33 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:49,600 Human like us despite what they might think themselves an expert is no different than you and I with just a little bit more training and whatever subject matter 34 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:50,760 They're 35 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:57,000 professing to be an expert in as I will show you and demonstrate experts have been wrong before and 36 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,360 They believe and they will be wrong again 37 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:07,280 But it isn't an episode to bash expertise what I'm trying to do is enlighten your mind 38 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,600 So that you understand 39 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:16,040 When you should take the advice of an expert and when you should question that and I'm gonna teach you how to question an expert and 40 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,320 verify the information because 41 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:24,720 For all intents and purposes we're all experts because really expert comes from the word 42 00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:27,600 from the Latin word 43 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:34,120 X which means out of per to try per is to try or risk so in essence an 44 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:36,520 expert is 45 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:42,240 Somebody who's tried and risked and out of that is gained knowledge. So in essence we've all 46 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,400 We've all tried something right and risked something heck we're living life or trying to live life 47 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,560 We're all experts at life right and no seriously think about it 48 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:57,720 We are life experts you can become a life coach if you want to there's nothing that says you cannot do that 49 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:05,280 Don't buy into the fake credentials that institutionalized education wants to sell you and I'm not against institutionalized education 50 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:13,400 But I'm just telling you a lot of this is in the mindset. So don't buy into that necessarily you are a life expert, okay? 51 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:15,760 We're moving on 52 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,840 Before I irritate too many people so basically it comes down to this here folks 53 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:26,840 Experts are human. I know you didn't know that you're probably questioning 54 00:04:26,840 --> 00:04:32,560 You're probably in disbelief right now that I even made that statement like how can Alan make that statement that experts are 55 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,080 Human I thought they're gods 56 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:41,400 But they're not they're prone to the same cognitive biases as anyone else think about it 57 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,000 What makes someone better than the other person that doesn't really make nobody's better than anybody? 58 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:50,000 It really comes down to how much training that person has and that person still is subject to biases 59 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:58,120 They are swayed in many different reasons cognitively which can affect their decision-making thus affect their expert advice, okay? 60 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:04,040 So before we even get into all of this here, I want to be able to explain to you what a cognitive bias is 61 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,960 So that you don't just look to me and say oh that makes sense when it really doesn't make sense at all 62 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:16,160 Okay, because I'm not an expert. I'm just somebody who does a lot of reading in psychology and human behavior and neuroscience 63 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:22,440 So that I can better understand our own behavior as humans and in our own realities and you know 64 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:27,240 Fictional realities and and things that are made up and that we follow blindly for no reason 65 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:32,360 Cognitive biases lead to illogical inferences about people and situations 66 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:37,040 Meaning they're often based on incomplete information or incorrect assumptions 67 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,720 How many times and and I know you do this because I do this too 68 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,440 Someone asked you a question. You don't want to look stupid you make up an answer or you give an answer 69 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,320 Which you think you're right, but you're not a hundred percent right, okay? 70 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:52,560 So that's incomplete information and sometimes you're making an incorrect assumptions 71 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:58,760 We see that a lot about politics these days people don't know the back story of anything and they just make an assumption 72 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:05,240 Those are all biases and experts do the same thing and here's another thing about biases 73 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:10,440 They take advantage of the brain's heuristics, which means their mental shortcut 74 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:15,280 So we have these mental shortcuts that are part of our human nature. It's part of our evolution 75 00:06:15,280 --> 00:06:21,120 So that we can survive out in the wild if you see for example out you're in the 76 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:28,040 You know the the desert or the jungles and you're an early human and you see a bush rustling 77 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:33,560 Your heuristics the shortcut is gonna be that's danger run get out of here. I don't want to get eaten 78 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,040 Okay, so we still we still 79 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:44,680 Maintain that and our thinking and these heuristics that we use to make our decisions often lead to errors and judgment 80 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:49,320 So basically it comes down to this here cognitive biases are basically 81 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,040 going to be simplified ways of 82 00:06:53,560 --> 00:07:00,760 Synthesizing or breaking down complex processes information processing in the brain and there's a lot of biases 83 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:06,240 And there's a lot of biases a lot of fallacies and in thinking in argumentation 84 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:13,360 We'll get into some of those and especially how they impact but our brain basically attempts as I said to simplify 85 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:19,520 complex processes of information so that we can save mental resources and 86 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:27,160 Oftentimes we're not right and experts are the same thing even though an expert might have done it over and over and over again to 87 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,720 To learn something they're not always correct 88 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:39,600 They're still subject to these biases and the reason they're subject to these biases is because by cognitive biases are influenced by emotions 89 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:46,680 social influence your social gathering around you and any inherent limitations in our information processing capacity 90 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,720 So if we have limitations in processing our information for whatever reason 91 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:56,080 That also impacts our decision-making. So let me say this again 92 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,760 Cognitive biases are influenced by our emotions 93 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,760 social influence the people around us that influence us and 94 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:08,720 They are impacted by the inherent limitations of our own information process 95 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,280 processing capacity 96 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:16,640 So I want to give you a quick example. Let's say you are an expert in 97 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:23,680 Strategic military operations and you're on the American side US side 98 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:28,800 We are fighting a war with Russia and let's say for example a top 99 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,600 Military leader sleeps and falls in love with a Russian woman. He is now 100 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:39,600 Socially influenced by his emotions romantic connection to this woman 101 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:46,600 Anything is possible in his judgment. Any error is possible at this point is what I'm trying to say to you 102 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:53,840 So experts fall under the same category as we all do. Okay, so we can take it a step further 103 00:08:53,920 --> 00:09:00,800 We can just simply blanket statement and say that experts are subjected to all the biases which 104 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,360 Everybody on this planet are subject to and that's a true statement 105 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:12,720 But there's a German neuroscientist Ethel drawer who's done research on cognitive biases in expert decision-making 106 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,000 He's actually identified 107 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:20,360 Six fallacies that hinder a fair assessment of expert conclusions. I 108 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:29,880 Mean, these are six fallacies cognitive biases that are very specific to how experts make decisions that impact their decisions 109 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,200 Let's quickly go through drawers fallacies 110 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:41,040 So we have a foundation of biases that impact the decision-making of experts and their outcomes the ethical issues fallacy 111 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:48,520 Basically, this fallacy is the belief that biases are a matter of personal integrity and only affect corrupt or unscrupulous 112 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:55,000 individuals it incorrectly assumes that biases are exclusively ethical problems rather than cognitive ones 113 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:58,960 So what does that mean? So basically the ethical issues fallacy is 114 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:04,800 About the individual who thinks they're the expert, but that their decisions are not 115 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:11,880 Impacted by any ball any fallacy or bias because that is left to unscrupulous nefarious 116 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:19,640 Bad characters, you know individuals, but unfortunately for them. It's a cognitive problem not a bad person problem 117 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:24,080 So again, it comes back to the brain the thinking the bad apples fallacy 118 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:30,600 So this is an interesting fallacy in that it suggests that biases occur only to people due to 119 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:35,360 Incompetence and only happens to experts who do not know how to do their job properly 120 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,320 How many times have you heard that where someone says oh, they don't know how to do their job? 121 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:45,920 Or they don't know what they're doing or they don't know what they're talking about and they're the self-proclaimed experts or they think they've been 122 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,160 Ordained an expert by some institution 123 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:52,920 But in reality that the bad apples fallacy fails to recognize the expert 124 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:58,240 Accusing the other experts so to speak of not knowing how to do their job 125 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:04,800 So therefore what they're saying should be voided the problem with that kind of thinking is that the person? 126 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:09,600 Or the individual or the so-called expert calling out the other person that they don't know their job 127 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:15,200 They fail to recognize that even highly competent experts can be affected by biases 128 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:17,800 so in other words I 129 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:21,640 Can be out there and say oh so and so doesn't know what he's talking about 130 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,400 He doesn't know how to do his job properly anyway 131 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:29,240 Look at he made a mistake and I'm going to make the assumption that because he doesn't know how to do his job. He's not an expert 132 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:34,720 He doesn't know what he's talking about thus I do however the case is that biases impact 133 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:40,720 Everybody regardless of level of expertise and that's the bad apples fallacy. I hope I explain that to you correctly 134 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:46,040 I'm gonna have all these on my show notes on my website Alan Stafford comm so you can always go over there look under podcasts 135 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,280 And then show notes and then you'll see I'll have this whole list for you 136 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:56,760 Then there's your expert immunity fallacies, which is the fallacy that basically states experts are impartial and not affected by biases because 137 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:01,160 They are competent at their jobs, so we're just gonna assume that they're competent because they're experts 138 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:09,120 And again this fallacy overlooks the fact that biases can impact anyone regardless of their level of expertise 139 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,320 Do we see a do we see a theme going here a 140 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:17,440 trend and how these biases in decision-making work that basically the leader doesn't think they're 141 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:23,040 Fallible because they're the expert but everyone else doesn't know what they're talking about and therefore they're not the expert 142 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,240 But yet when in reality the bias 143 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:26,880 affects everybody 144 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:33,760 Doesn't just affect them or the other person and then drawers forth identified decision-making fallacy as a technological protection fallacy 145 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,080 This is the assumption that the use of technology 146 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:45,040 instrumentation automation or artificial intelligence can guarantee protection from human biases and here's the funny part though if you're an expert 147 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:50,960 Making the assumption that AI or some sort of technology is infallible 148 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:57,000 Think about this for a second. Isn't technology and AI created by man who's fallible himself 149 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:58,560 I mean think about it 150 00:12:58,560 --> 00:13:05,800 So the AI is only as good as the human inputting the information and that human is subject to biases 151 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,400 So again that doesn't pan out either for experts 152 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:16,920 You have the bias blind spot fallacy and this is one of my favorites. I'll tell you why because this fallacy is of the assumption that while 153 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:23,160 Other experts may be affected by bias your own judgment is not subject to the same biases like oh 154 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:30,880 They're biased on that side of the newsroom, but us we're not biased. That's the bias blind spot fallacy 155 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:37,240 I like that one and that one you see a lot that one's real evident when someone comes out and says to you. Yeah, they're biased 156 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,480 You know what the underlying assumption there is is that I'm not biased, but they're biased 157 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,280 So you should listen to me and discount what they have to say and basically 158 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:52,080 The the bias blind spot fallacy is really a result of one's own lack of awareness or self-awareness 159 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:56,360 Regarding their own vulnerabilities to bias, you know, people don't like to admit that they're wrong 160 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,920 They don't want to admit that they've biased. You'll hear people. I'm not biased. I don't judge blah blah blah 161 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:03,200 None of that is true folks 162 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:07,400 You're not gonna escape that when I hear that the first thing that goes up red flag 163 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:12,560 They're starting to you know gaslight me or trying to trying to be asked me and that should be the same thing that goes up 164 00:14:12,560 --> 00:14:18,680 With you a traffic light should open your head red light stop. Let's question this are they really unbiased because that's impossible 165 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,400 Are they really lack of judgment? That's impossible 166 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:29,400 You know, these are these should be these thoughts should be going through your mind and then finally drawers final identified fallacy for 167 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:35,560 Expert decision-making or cognitive biases and expert decision-making is the illusion of control fallacy 168 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:42,560 And this is an incorrect belief that one can control and manage all aspects of their decision-making process to eliminate bias 169 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:47,280 Basically it underestimates the subtle ways in which biases can influence judgment 170 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:55,720 sometimes and a lot of times people are not aware of the biases that impact their judgment their decision-making this is some of this is 171 00:14:55,720 --> 00:15:01,280 Some of this stuff is subconscious going on behind the scenes of your of your conscious mind 172 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,080 so after going through the fallacies and especially 173 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:09,360 The six specific fallacies that drawers research dug up on expert decision-making 174 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:14,760 I guess the question is should we even listen to experts and if so when should we listen to them? 175 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:16,760 I'll tell you what we'll find out when we come back 176 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:22,000 Okay, so should you listen to an expert? 177 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:29,040 Well, you know, here's the thing. I don't want you to think I'm bashing experts. I'm not what I'm simply doing is trying to help you 178 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:33,360 Better understand and think clearer and be able to question experts 179 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:40,760 So that you can get a better decision for yourself or make a better decision or choice for yourself regardless of whether it's medical or 180 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,160 religious even or 181 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:49,240 Scientific mechanical whatever the reason is that you're going to go to somebody who possesses more knowledge 182 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:53,280 Than you in that subject matter that you know how to question them 183 00:15:54,120 --> 00:16:00,000 And that you understand that they're subject to the same biases as everyone else is and only what makes them an expert is that the fact that 184 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:04,840 They spent some time studying a lot more or a little bit more than what you already know 185 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,960 On the subject so when do we listen to experts? 186 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:14,000 I also want to share with you a story and this is where I'm torn. I believe in doctors 187 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,880 But I don't believe in doctors at the same time 188 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,120 Even though they spent many years in medical school 189 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:24,240 They're subject to the same biases as we are and they make 190 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:30,920 Poor decisions from time to time. Let me give you a story here my own father about a year ago 191 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:35,960 I get a call saying that he has a week left to die. He has a high blood pressure 192 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:42,200 All saying that he has a week left to die. He has a high atl hernia and I'm not going to get into the whole medical history of it 193 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:43,280 but 194 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:49,120 Basically the doctor says he has less than a week to die before he aspirates and 195 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:54,840 Basically can't breathe on his own anymore to make a long story short in that sense 196 00:16:54,840 --> 00:17:01,240 He didn't die after a week the doctor was adamant no matter how often we asked the doctor are you still sure and he says yes 197 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:05,160 I'm absolutely sure as it turns out fast forward over a year later 198 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:10,480 Okay, now we're over a year later. My dad slips and fall going out to his truck mind you he's 79 years old 199 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:11,800 He's going out to his truck 200 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:18,280 He slips and fall and again crushes his chest ends up in the hospital the emergency room intensive care and the doctor in there 201 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,640 They were prepping me saying that basically if they pull the tube 202 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,520 That he was intubated if they pulled the breathing tube that he would die 203 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,580 He can't breathe on his own and so I was left to have to make that decision 204 00:17:28,580 --> 00:17:35,720 But as it turned out my father came to and he was able to sign language saying he did not want the tube pulled 205 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:41,880 Which is probably a good thing because fast forward four months later after the doctor said he only had a week to live 206 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,880 Then he's still he's still alive and kicking without a tube in his throat 207 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:53,520 So my point is the doctors don't know everything just like the lawyers don't know everything there are lawyers who lose cases 208 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:58,580 There are doctors who lose patients who misdiagnose there are crisis communicators 209 00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:05,780 Who fail at their job and they're the so-called expert take for instance the wildfire that happened on 210 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,200 Maui in Hawaii back in 211 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:15,220 2023 last year here you had multiple fires weather conditions that exacerbated the fires that grew them together 212 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:21,600 Eventually leading down to Lahaina the little town of Lahaina on the coast there 213 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,600 Killing over a hundred people 214 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,320 The takeaway from this here is the experts failed 215 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,120 to initiate an early warning system as well as 216 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:39,680 Residents claiming they heard no information about what to do or where to go and these are your experts folks 217 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:44,120 I mean what are they doing inside their expert office? 218 00:18:44,120 --> 00:18:46,600 I mean are they sitting there playing backgammon all day long? 219 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:51,040 No, they're in there probably not making right decisions. They don't know what to do 220 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:57,720 Because this is probably a situation that's never occurred before so their expertise is limited to what they've done or studied in the past 221 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:05,720 But nothing of this magnitude so again leads people to think that experts will know every situation when they really don't know every situation 222 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:11,440 But that's but that's not to say that we don't need expert advice and now you're probably confused 223 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:15,460 It's like what is he saying is he saying don't listen to experts or is he saying listen to experts? 224 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:19,280 What I'm telling you is to approach and we'll get into this here in a little bit 225 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:20,840 about 226 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:25,760 How to question experts and what to what to look for but right now? 227 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,760 I'm just giving you some background information on 228 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:35,240 What an expert is and that they are fallible just like everybody else and that the only thing that makes them an expert is 229 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,400 The extra knowledge that they have and they're not always right 230 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:46,320 They don't always make good sound decisions because their decisions are plagued by biases which are driven by emotion and societal pressure 231 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:53,040 Or influences but having said that when when do we want to listen to an expert when they have specialized knowledge? 232 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:57,120 I'm not gonna go to medical school so I can operate on myself or a family member 233 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:01,760 So I'm going to I'm going to defer to a doctor 234 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:07,480 But I'm also gonna question the doctor but expert advice is essential 235 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:12,080 Or you should be listening to experts where they possess specialized knowledge 236 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:18,640 I mean in critical fields that require specialized knowledge beyond beyond basically the grasp of just the average layperson 237 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:23,560 And I'm talking medical legal and advanced scientific research 238 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,120 Again, it doesn't mean that they're right when they speak all the time 239 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:31,840 It just means that they have more advanced knowledge than you do and you probably want to take into consideration 240 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:37,920 What they're saying but then again always verify the facts when I talk about specialized knowledge 241 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:43,880 I'm talking about complex decision-making again like experts in in the medical field that are making medical diagnosis 242 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:48,560 Well, I don't know about the doctors that diagnose and it's two separate doctors. It's not the same one that diagnosed my dad 243 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,040 Maybe they need to go back to medical school 244 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,480 Maybe they just looked at him as an old man who smoked his whole life and realized that he's done 245 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:01,600 I mean that could be it. They could have had biases against a smoker. He used he used to be a smoker 246 00:21:02,120 --> 00:21:04,560 So I mean they could have had a bias against that thinking oh well 247 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:09,280 I've seen this case before I'm gonna base it on the last case. I had even though not two people are alike 248 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:14,480 I'm just gonna say he's gone or so. I mean it could be a variable of reasons 249 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,720 It could be a variable of reasons why they made that decision 250 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,720 But again, it was a poor decision and it comes from experts and here's one 251 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:28,400 I grapple with from time to time listening to experts when they're making policy and practice like in public health 252 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,840 I mean we saw that with COVID all the experts. We were we were 253 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:39,880 We as the public was thrashed back and forth on what to do what not to do talk about the chaos and decision making 254 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:44,040 One side one to stick bleach and bleach inside of you the other side 255 00:21:44,360 --> 00:21:47,960 Wanda keep you inside all the time who knew what to do? 256 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,960 I mean we were all going through this together 257 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:55,840 The experts were trying their best and yet I believe they failed many people 258 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,080 But now we know if we had that same scenario what we should do 259 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,400 We didn't know it then because we were looking at something from a hundred years ago 260 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:10,760 You know the the first flu outbreak but times have changed people are different the populations greater the economy is different 261 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,400 So you can't take that information and say oh everybody quarantine 262 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:19,360 You should do it too because it takes the economy and I'm not saying that's the wrong thing or the right thing to do because I don't know 263 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,680 But what I'm telling you is the experts don't always have the answer either 264 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:28,560 So I guess I guess it comes down to walking a fine line between 265 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:35,160 Accepting what the expert says and then verifying it now. There are people who just flat out 266 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:42,440 Discount or ignore what the expert says there are people that I know personally that think doctors are wackos 267 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,520 That they don't know what they're talking about and yet 268 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:51,240 They're the ones who think they know what they're talking about because they do some research on YouTube videos or they do some research on 269 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:56,840 Some website Bob's medical advice and then they come up with this information and they go 270 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:02,600 Well, the doctor doesn't know what he's talking about because I'm using all kinds of supplements and stuff and I had cancer and I cured cancer when they never even 271 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,240 Had the cancer or there's not even verifiable 272 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:09,560 So you have that side of the spectrum tuned that's that's another extreme 273 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:14,880 So there's one side where you just don't believe anybody and think they're all wackos and you're the smart one or you the other side where you just 274 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,880 Don't believe every expert never question it and 275 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,440 Folks you need to be somewhere in the middle if you want to be smart about it 276 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,080 You need to be somewhere in the middle and you need to be 277 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:29,200 Questioning when the experts give you advice so as an example in medical advice get a second third or fourth opinion 278 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,760 It's customary to get a second opinion. Once you agree third opinion even fine 279 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:39,160 Hey, if you want to go all out get a fourth opinion, but I'd say throw in a fifth so you have an odd number 280 00:23:39,360 --> 00:23:44,520 So it'll be three to two, you know, okay, I'll take the majority there on that operation. Thank you 281 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,880 Yeah, I don't know if it works that way, but at least you get different opinions 282 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:56,200 So I hope I've made myself clear in a sense of when you should seek out an expert and that is again when they have specialized knowledge 283 00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:00,800 But it doesn't mean to take their word at heart. It doesn't mean discount it either right away 284 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,720 It just means listen to what they have to say they have the background in that information 285 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,720 but get another opinion on 286 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,680 Their expertise regardless of whether it's an auto mechanic a 287 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,960 Lawyer because some lawyers will say yeah, you could see them the other one say no, you can't sue them same thing with a doctor 288 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,600 Yeah, we can operate. No, we can't operate. You know type of thing. So so far 289 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:26,240 We've discussed experts and how they make mistakes yet possess advanced knowledge on subject matter that most of us do not have 290 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,720 so far we've talked about 291 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:34,400 Experts their subject their subject to cognitive biases like everybody else they make mistakes 292 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:39,600 But we do need to defer to them in certain situations such as that specialized knowledge 293 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,880 but again, we want to make sure that we're 294 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:47,520 Always on guard and questioning the experts and not just taking their word for it because sometimes 295 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,000 You know, they may be having a bad day 296 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:57,640 I don't know or they may just not be up on the latest research or techniques or or whatever might be going on in their field 297 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,960 And make a bad decision. They may be just having a heck of a week 298 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,360 Maybe they got in fight with their wife or their spouse or husband or whatever they are 299 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,880 So the takeaway I want you to have from this segment here is you know when we approach expert advice 300 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:17,120 We need to do so with caution. Okay, just don't take it as that's the gospel and even you shouldn't take the gospel as the gospel 301 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,000 And when we decide to take experts advice 302 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:25,680 As I said, we need to approach it with caution and there are a few ways that we can do that 303 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,480 So what we want to do is approach it with skepticism and critical thinking 304 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:36,040 We want to evaluate expert opinions with both of these skepticism and critical thinking skills 305 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,160 We want to question their assumptions 306 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:44,440 So for skeptical it encourages us to question the underlying assumption behind their opinion the expert's opinion 307 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,680 Our skepticism allows us to approach the topic 308 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:54,800 critically helping us uncover any potential biases or flaws in their reasoning. I mean 309 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,640 There's always flaws in every reasoning 310 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,840 And so when we uncover these flaws when we when we're skeptical we uncover these flaws 311 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:08,560 It basically leads to a deeper understanding of the issue that they're discussing or that the issue at hand whatever that issue might be 312 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,400 whether it be medical 313 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:16,360 Scientific political religious. I mean now religion set aside. That's a belief system 314 00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:22,240 You know if you want to believe in that go for it. That's that's all on you and I have no problem with that 315 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:27,240 But if you're gonna say that that is the truth then now we're gonna have to argue if you can say that the 316 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,200 Pastors an expert and he's saying this the truth now we're gonna have a discussion about that because 317 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:34,520 I have a different opinion a different view on this stuff and 318 00:26:35,120 --> 00:26:37,120 a reason a lot of people don't question 319 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:43,760 Experts is because it requires evaluating the evidence you have to actually do a little bit of digging yourself 320 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,600 You have to do a little bit of the work you have to do a little bit of the work yourself 321 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,440 And as a result it's time-consuming and it hurts your brain folks. It does 322 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,560 At any given day our brain our three pound brain 323 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:02,560 Which is the average weight for the brain? Process is about 70,000 thoughts 324 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:09,560 70,000 thoughts each day using over a hundred billion neurons that connect more than 500 trillion points 325 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,280 through our synapses in our brain 326 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,480 They travel 300 miles an hour that 327 00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:21,960 Exhaust people folks. So the more you think the more tired and exhausting your brain gets 328 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,880 Have you ever come home from working just exhausted? 329 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,880 You want to sit down have a beer or coffee or something like that? 330 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,320 Have a beer or cup of coffee? 331 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:34,600 Well, maybe not a coffee a tea a drink something watch some boob tube TV pointless TV reality show and just go to bed or 332 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,120 Really do nothing well 333 00:27:36,120 --> 00:27:40,200 That's probably because you've been thinking all day long and you need to shut yourself down 334 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:46,160 So that's the reason why people have a hard time evaluating because they have to spend that time thinking they have to spend the time researching 335 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,160 And then the exhaustive 336 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,400 Journey of actually going through the thought process of trying to figure things out 337 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:57,160 So when you approach an expert and I say approaching with skepticism and critical thinking 338 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:02,280 Evaluating evidence is time-consuming, but if you really want to get to the bottom of it 339 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,640 Are they telling you the truth? Do they know what they're talking about? 340 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,880 Is there another approach another solution instead of what they're offering? 341 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:14,320 You're gonna need to dig a little deeper folks and being a skeptic doesn't mean necessarily being someone who just completely 342 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:20,840 Rejects everything it's more of an approach to questioning to verify 343 00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:30,840 Because being a skeptic because skepticism aids in identifying and basically mitigating personal and professional biases in all expert reasoning 344 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:39,320 It recognizes these biases as crucial for maintaining the objectivity and making those informed decisions 345 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,440 So skepticism 346 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,080 being a skeptic is 347 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,080 good when you're questioning 348 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:47,680 experts 349 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,880 Or questioning anything for that matter. I mean, I'm a skeptic sometimes. I'm a over 350 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:59,580 Sometimes I'm overly skeptic. I just question everything. I've been known to do that and I've been accused of doing that 351 00:28:59,580 --> 00:29:01,580 I question the questioner 352 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,960 but but that's me because 353 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,120 My ultimate goal is to get down to the bottom 354 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:11,800 Closest to the truth is possible and then when I say closest to the truth because we don't ever know what the truth is 355 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:16,120 We will never know what the truth is all we can do is say we think this based on this study 356 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:21,920 But again, it's not conclusive because we really don't know and then here's a big one here confirmation bias 357 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,880 You've probably heard of confirmation bias confirmation bias 358 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:30,000 Effects almost everybody. I mean we see that in politics 359 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:37,260 We see the right. We see the left. They seek out like-minded news media to confirm their already 360 00:29:37,260 --> 00:29:44,740 existing irrational belief, but confirmation bias has an impact on experts as well and in the way it does that in 361 00:29:45,020 --> 00:29:51,260 How it affects experts is that confirmation bias basically leads experts to seek out information that 362 00:29:51,660 --> 00:29:58,540 Aligned with their existing beliefs or hypothesis potentially overlooking any data that might contradict their view 363 00:29:58,740 --> 00:30:00,740 So they'll be out there seeking 364 00:30:00,740 --> 00:30:07,740 Information that fits their narrative that happens a lot look at these so-called unbiased studies 365 00:30:08,100 --> 00:30:12,340 When we talk about let's say the impact of sugar on the human body 366 00:30:12,820 --> 00:30:18,660 Who's that study done by sometimes a soda or a candy company? Yeah, it's a little biased if you ask me 367 00:30:19,020 --> 00:30:26,380 I'm not gonna buy into that because they're trying to say sugar is good for you and buy more candy and eat more candy kids and adults 368 00:30:26,380 --> 00:30:27,300 I 369 00:30:27,300 --> 00:30:33,380 Don't know about you, but I love sweets. I try to curb the sweets, but the candy and the ice cream man 370 00:30:33,380 --> 00:30:38,720 I love that stuff and to me. It's a drug. I mean they get you hooked you're addicted to you like oh 371 00:30:38,820 --> 00:30:41,220 Give me some more ice cream. Give me some more candy 372 00:30:42,900 --> 00:30:47,860 Pretty soon you're strewn out on the bed passed out because you you're on your your highs coming down 373 00:30:48,340 --> 00:30:50,340 and another thing that 374 00:30:50,340 --> 00:30:51,580 confirmation bias 375 00:30:51,580 --> 00:30:57,220 Plays into is that these experts their interpretation can be influenced by their beliefs? 376 00:30:57,220 --> 00:31:02,380 I mean they may interpret ambiguous or conflicting data in ways that supports their 377 00:31:03,340 --> 00:31:08,540 preconceptions which basically skews our analysis and their conclusions and cognitive biases in 378 00:31:09,260 --> 00:31:15,100 Decision-making can lead to overconfidence in expert judgments. This what this does is causes them to give undue 379 00:31:15,780 --> 00:31:20,620 Weight to evidence that supports their belief and underweight evidence that does not 380 00:31:20,620 --> 00:31:26,460 So what are we saying about all of this information? We're talking about approaching 381 00:31:26,940 --> 00:31:29,980 experts with caution being skeptical 382 00:31:30,660 --> 00:31:32,660 question their assumptions 383 00:31:33,420 --> 00:31:35,420 Evaluate their evidence 384 00:31:35,460 --> 00:31:39,300 identify their biases and understand that they are 385 00:31:39,940 --> 00:31:45,260 Subject confirmation bias just like you and I because if you here's here's a little lesson for you 386 00:31:45,260 --> 00:31:48,020 Why don't you go out or stay in whatever you're doing? 387 00:31:48,020 --> 00:31:52,700 If you're driving keep driving, but um, but why don't you? 388 00:31:53,260 --> 00:31:54,980 Listen to the news 389 00:31:54,980 --> 00:31:59,700 Listen to a right-wing news station and then listen to a left-wing news station 390 00:31:59,700 --> 00:32:04,580 I'm talking a Republican a Democrat a Maga or whatever you want to call it a progressive whatever they call them nowadays 391 00:32:05,100 --> 00:32:12,740 Listen to them. You'll see on the right. They're supporting right issues and their people on the right are going. Yes, that's right 392 00:32:12,740 --> 00:32:16,260 That's right. I agree that oh, yeah, perfect because they're feeding to that psyche 393 00:32:16,260 --> 00:32:18,780 They're confirming what that person already 394 00:32:19,260 --> 00:32:24,500 Has an assumption to believe and it may not be true, but they're just buying into it the same thing on the left 395 00:32:24,500 --> 00:32:29,380 Oh, yeah, we'll let these people over the border and blah blah and whatever else is going on 396 00:32:30,220 --> 00:32:32,820 Watch the news begin to listen to it critically like that 397 00:32:32,820 --> 00:32:36,380 You'll begin to see that they're pandering to that audience and 398 00:32:37,180 --> 00:32:40,780 Confirmation bias is rampant on both sides when we come back 399 00:32:40,780 --> 00:32:47,460 We're going to discuss the limitations of expert teasers or experts the limitations of experts. We're gonna talk about 400 00:32:48,260 --> 00:32:56,060 Some experts and the mistakes their mishaps that they've done as well as how to evaluate expert advice and that's coming up 401 00:32:59,460 --> 00:33:03,180 Okay, so far we've talked about cognitive biases and fallacies 402 00:33:03,620 --> 00:33:09,420 In expert opinions and advice things that basically make them human like everyone else remember 403 00:33:09,420 --> 00:33:15,820 Experts are no different than you and I they just have a little bit more education or a little bit more knowledge in a certain subject matter area 404 00:33:16,500 --> 00:33:17,940 Sometimes a lot more 405 00:33:17,940 --> 00:33:19,020 information 406 00:33:19,020 --> 00:33:23,540 I'm not don't want to underplay or undermine experts by any stretch of the imagination 407 00:33:23,580 --> 00:33:30,500 But again, the whole point is that they're human that we've been sold as bill of good that we should listen to experts when in fact 408 00:33:30,500 --> 00:33:32,500 we should always be questioning 409 00:33:32,620 --> 00:33:34,100 experts in 410 00:33:34,100 --> 00:33:40,940 Getting more information and dive in deeper into what they're telling us to see if it's true or not, but there are limitations of expertise 411 00:33:40,940 --> 00:33:42,940 And one of them is outdated information 412 00:33:43,540 --> 00:33:47,740 Talk about the technology sector. I mean information AI 413 00:33:48,620 --> 00:33:53,860 All that stuff changes rapidly even in the medical field. What about food? 414 00:33:54,180 --> 00:33:59,100 How many times have you heard eggs are bad for you eggs are good for you eggs are bad for you eggs are good for you 415 00:33:59,100 --> 00:34:02,620 I don't even know where we stand with eggs anymore, but the bottom the bottom line is 416 00:34:02,620 --> 00:34:06,220 You know information is outdated. It gets 417 00:34:06,620 --> 00:34:12,300 Restudied new studies come in something else pops up. So you have to have an expert who's staying on top of this 418 00:34:12,420 --> 00:34:21,180 So when I went to USC, I remember a university professor in the department the industrial engineering department in which I worked for a few hours a week 419 00:34:22,020 --> 00:34:27,540 Was getting booted and the reason why it was because he wasn't publishing enough now 420 00:34:27,540 --> 00:34:29,540 I understand that's probably a standard practice across 421 00:34:29,540 --> 00:34:36,100 Many universities and colleges and the point of that matter is to publish you have to do research 422 00:34:36,100 --> 00:34:39,820 You have to understand and continue and stay on top of your field and if you're not doing that 423 00:34:40,020 --> 00:34:47,940 Well, you're becoming outdated and that is one of the challenges the limitations of expertise is that information 424 00:34:48,500 --> 00:34:51,420 Becomes outdated and they don't stay on top of that 425 00:34:51,500 --> 00:34:54,300 So one of the things you want to do is question an expert, you know 426 00:34:54,300 --> 00:34:59,660 Even doctors doctors are not always up on top of stuff. They're doing the same old things saying the same old people month after month 427 00:34:59,660 --> 00:35:05,140 Day after day week after week whenever after whenever and they're not always staying on top of their practice 428 00:35:05,700 --> 00:35:07,700 Now I'm sure that medical facilities 429 00:35:08,700 --> 00:35:14,060 Require their doctors to take seminars or to stay on top of the research and again 430 00:35:14,060 --> 00:35:19,940 I can't say that with any certainty, but I'm assuming that that's I hope they do that if not then that's not very good 431 00:35:19,940 --> 00:35:27,500 So basically what I'm saying is experts need to be lifelong learners. They need to be in front of that computer or in front of that book or in front of that 432 00:35:29,180 --> 00:35:35,940 Seminar and constantly learning new advancements in their field to stay on top of things and again 433 00:35:35,940 --> 00:35:39,460 We beat this up in the first part of our podcast biases 434 00:35:40,020 --> 00:35:42,020 taken to consideration a 435 00:35:42,260 --> 00:35:46,060 doctor we're gonna we're gonna play religion real quick a doctor 436 00:35:46,060 --> 00:35:51,060 raised in a Islamic country comes to the United States 437 00:35:51,780 --> 00:35:53,780 where religion is 438 00:35:53,940 --> 00:35:54,940 basically 439 00:35:54,940 --> 00:35:58,100 Free to practice whatever religion you want to believe in but we mainly 440 00:35:58,820 --> 00:36:04,820 Follow a Christian background for a lot of people or we have values that are 441 00:36:06,060 --> 00:36:08,060 Opposite of Islamic values 442 00:36:08,180 --> 00:36:13,340 How do you think this doctor is gonna react in a country where he was brought up Islamic? 443 00:36:13,340 --> 00:36:18,700 He is Islamic and his beliefs are very conservative and now he has to practice or now 444 00:36:18,700 --> 00:36:20,700 He's chosen to practice in America 445 00:36:20,700 --> 00:36:26,820 Where our freedoms are much greater than they have especially the freedom of women in this country 446 00:36:26,820 --> 00:36:31,460 Whereas they don't have that in a lot of those Islamic countries in the Middle East that impacts 447 00:36:31,900 --> 00:36:36,980 The expert his personal biases can influence his judgment in his decisions 448 00:36:36,980 --> 00:36:41,260 I don't know what they're taught overseas and I again. I'm not saying that they're teaching them bad 449 00:36:41,260 --> 00:36:47,420 I'm just saying that they come from different cultures different ideologies and those carry over biases and that's the bottom line 450 00:36:47,420 --> 00:36:54,060 That's what I'm just trying to thrust at you right now is that other cultures other religions or all religions 451 00:36:54,060 --> 00:36:58,340 They all carry their own set of standards for how life should be how people should live their life 452 00:36:58,580 --> 00:37:02,380 Well, when you take that you mix that with another culture another religion another belief system 453 00:37:02,500 --> 00:37:09,020 You might run into problems with bias on that doctor or on that mechanic or on that 454 00:37:09,020 --> 00:37:11,700 clergyman or on that teacher 455 00:37:12,300 --> 00:37:18,100 So there's a lot to consider so knowing where your educator comes from or your doctor comes from can help you 456 00:37:18,540 --> 00:37:25,340 When they give you an answer and you're not happy with that answer you can simply go. I mean don't go. Oh, you're Islamic 457 00:37:25,580 --> 00:37:29,140 So therefore your decision sucks. No, that's not what I'm saying 458 00:37:29,140 --> 00:37:34,740 I'm saying taking the consideration to conservative. They're very conservative religious upbringing if that's how they are 459 00:37:34,740 --> 00:37:42,020 And that's all and what about organizational interest take a look at the Supreme Court? Supreme Court is heavily weighted 460 00:37:42,940 --> 00:37:48,660 Republican versus Democrat when they overturn row versus Wade and again, I'm not a lawyer 461 00:37:48,660 --> 00:37:52,860 I don't play one on a podcast and I don't play one on TV and I don't definitely play one in life, but 462 00:37:53,620 --> 00:37:55,620 It does have an impact on their decision 463 00:37:56,260 --> 00:38:00,060 Because for decades we didn't overturn row versus Wade and all of a sudden you get a 464 00:38:00,060 --> 00:38:06,420 Conservative Supreme Court in there and that's their biases that interpret the law which overturns 465 00:38:06,940 --> 00:38:08,940 But we already had in place 466 00:38:09,140 --> 00:38:15,340 So folks these are all things that come into play when experts give you advice and I don't want you to be blindsided by this 467 00:38:15,340 --> 00:38:20,900 I don't want you to realize. Oh wait a second. They know what they're talking about. No question everything question 468 00:38:21,380 --> 00:38:26,260 Everything from experts all the way on down. We should question everything from non expert 469 00:38:26,700 --> 00:38:28,700 They just don't know what they're talking about period 470 00:38:28,700 --> 00:38:35,420 And then there's a limited scope of expertise. I mean experts typically operate in niches, right? 471 00:38:35,420 --> 00:38:38,180 You know the the NASA expert the 472 00:38:38,740 --> 00:38:41,860 Mission control specialist doesn't go out and operate on people 473 00:38:42,260 --> 00:38:48,260 So there's there's limitations and expertise. They might be a scientist, but they can't talk about necessarily 474 00:38:48,620 --> 00:38:55,340 gemology, you know or medical science in that in that effect. So don't let the doctor 475 00:38:55,340 --> 00:38:59,300 Title or even even the title of engineer 476 00:39:00,140 --> 00:39:04,700 Sway you and make you think that oh, they're an expert in everything that way. Let me give you another case in point 477 00:39:04,700 --> 00:39:10,940 There was there was several years ago. Maybe 10 years ago. There was a product on the market and this product was called 478 00:39:12,660 --> 00:39:18,500 Cortisol or something like that there what it basically did was block cortisol. It was supposed to it didn't do that 479 00:39:18,500 --> 00:39:19,900 It was a scam 480 00:39:19,900 --> 00:39:24,340 But they would always reference the doctor and I forget the doctor's name, but they'd always reference him 481 00:39:24,340 --> 00:39:29,820 When you saw the direct mail piece it said doctor, but it was a PhD 482 00:39:30,700 --> 00:39:32,900 doctor in sports science 483 00:39:32,900 --> 00:39:35,580 It had nothing to do with health and fitness and diet 484 00:39:35,740 --> 00:39:41,140 Well fitness maybe a little bit on the sports side, but it had nothing to do with the human body and diet 485 00:39:41,500 --> 00:39:47,820 It was very misleading, but they used the doctor title to help sell this product which they ended up getting sued for 486 00:39:48,500 --> 00:39:53,960 So again because you're a doctor and one thing doesn't make you knowledgeable in everything 487 00:39:53,960 --> 00:40:00,820 So there is a limited scope of expertise and don't forget about pressure from external forces or systems or policymakers 488 00:40:00,820 --> 00:40:03,900 I mean we see this a lot in the government see this a lot in law 489 00:40:04,340 --> 00:40:11,060 We see those a lot with family members and they're not even I mean they're experts in their own families, but we see 490 00:40:11,780 --> 00:40:13,780 Pressure from external sources 491 00:40:14,220 --> 00:40:18,100 Constantly and you might feel this way yourself. You might be an expert in accounting 492 00:40:18,500 --> 00:40:22,740 But you might feel the pressure from your boss to cook the books. I'm not saying you are 493 00:40:22,740 --> 00:40:28,820 But I'm saying that pressure exists your boss might come up and say something like hey if we don't do that 494 00:40:28,820 --> 00:40:30,820 You know, we may not have a company next week 495 00:40:31,140 --> 00:40:33,340 You know like oh, how should I take that? 496 00:40:33,940 --> 00:40:38,940 So you there's this pressure from external sources that plague experts as well 497 00:40:38,940 --> 00:40:46,460 And then here's another one academia and practitioner are two different things. You can have an academic 498 00:40:47,580 --> 00:40:51,740 Talk about marketing for example my field for the last 30 years 499 00:40:51,740 --> 00:40:53,740 But if he's never been in the field 500 00:40:54,740 --> 00:41:02,700 What does he actually know about being a practitioner about being someone in the field that's actually applying these theories and education on marketing? 501 00:41:02,700 --> 00:41:09,340 They don't know much about that. They just go this is the theory. This is how you basically market to this audience 502 00:41:09,340 --> 00:41:10,700 This is what you need to do 503 00:41:10,700 --> 00:41:15,900 But when you get into the mix and you're out there in the field you realize no my 30 years says we don't do that because it doesn't 504 00:41:15,900 --> 00:41:22,460 Work with this audience so basically some of these experts just rely on theoretical knowledge and that's all it is 505 00:41:22,460 --> 00:41:24,060 It's theoretical knowledge 506 00:41:24,060 --> 00:41:27,180 It has no application in the practical world 507 00:41:27,500 --> 00:41:33,940 It doesn't work sometimes and so you can't go based on what they're saying if all they do is practice theory 508 00:41:34,300 --> 00:41:39,980 Basically academia or their academics and this is something good to listen to when you were listening to the news 509 00:41:39,980 --> 00:41:48,540 The news is a great place that brings in their quote-unquote expert advisors from all walks or from all different careers and 510 00:41:49,100 --> 00:41:52,540 Industries and yet if they bring in someone heavily academic 511 00:41:53,060 --> 00:41:59,540 They're giving you basically a lot of theory folks if they bring in someone that's strictly politics and they try to 512 00:42:00,260 --> 00:42:05,460 Analyze something that's out of their realm. They're just guessing at it or given their best knowledge of it 513 00:42:05,460 --> 00:42:08,860 They don't really have the expertise in that so again the question comes up 514 00:42:08,860 --> 00:42:10,860 Why should you believe them? 515 00:42:11,220 --> 00:42:12,980 Why should you buy into it? 516 00:42:12,980 --> 00:42:18,420 There's there's a whole list of limitations for experts, you know from information constraints time constraints 517 00:42:18,740 --> 00:42:22,220 You know practical implications strategies to manage bonded 518 00:42:22,900 --> 00:42:24,900 Rationality there's all kinds of things that get real complicated 519 00:42:25,260 --> 00:42:32,540 What I want you to take away from all of this is that people that proclaim themselves experts or people that are experts proclaimed by some 520 00:42:32,700 --> 00:42:34,700 institutional piece of paper like a degree or 521 00:42:35,940 --> 00:42:37,940 experience are 522 00:42:37,940 --> 00:42:41,060 Not infallible. Okay, they are 523 00:42:41,700 --> 00:42:46,860 Part of the human gene pool and they too make mistakes and they too need to be questioned 524 00:42:47,380 --> 00:42:51,260 Okay, so I'm afraid to ask this question, but do you think experts make errors? 525 00:42:52,460 --> 00:42:57,780 That's the whole point of the podcast right that they do that they're human that they're not some sort of God like in the sky 526 00:42:57,780 --> 00:43:01,620 That's been ordained by the universe, you know and sent to us to save humanity 527 00:43:02,180 --> 00:43:03,300 None of that exists 528 00:43:03,300 --> 00:43:09,660 So we're gonna talk about some of the statistical errors that have been made by experts so that I can drive this point 529 00:43:09,820 --> 00:43:16,900 Further with you that you understand that an expert is just another human being with a little bit more education 530 00:43:16,900 --> 00:43:18,900 That's injecting their theoretical 531 00:43:19,820 --> 00:43:21,380 understanding their 532 00:43:21,380 --> 00:43:23,880 interpretation and or a whole host of 533 00:43:24,460 --> 00:43:28,900 Other criteria that lead them to their decision that may or may not be correct 534 00:43:28,900 --> 00:43:31,500 And I've already given you a story a couple of stories about that 535 00:43:31,500 --> 00:43:39,180 One was my father and the doctors the other was the crisis communicators in Hawaii on the Hawaiian fire in 2023 on 536 00:43:39,580 --> 00:43:45,780 Maui, did you know in the medical field error rates and tissue diagnosis of cancer could be as high as 15% 537 00:43:45,940 --> 00:43:50,220 It's very challenging in clinical diagnosis of malignancy 538 00:43:50,220 --> 00:43:56,340 I mean even in primary care the solo practice solo practicing doctors in primary care 539 00:43:56,340 --> 00:44:04,460 One in every 1000 primary care visits results in a preventable harm now while the number might not seem very high 540 00:44:04,900 --> 00:44:08,660 The fact that it occurs should be disturbing to you 541 00:44:08,660 --> 00:44:13,540 I mean are you playing roulette with your life when you're not asking the questions? I think you are I 542 00:44:14,060 --> 00:44:20,140 Think you're rolling the dice sometimes and thinking I'm gonna be okay when you might be that number one person out of the thousand 543 00:44:20,140 --> 00:44:24,460 Or you might be part of the 15% of the misdiagnosed and let's talk about forensic science 544 00:44:24,460 --> 00:44:30,460 How many people are in prison that have been wrongly accused of the crime? 545 00:44:30,460 --> 00:44:34,660 I mean research has found key areas within the forensic science 546 00:44:35,780 --> 00:44:40,020 Associated with higher rates of wrongful convictions. I mean this is forensic science folks 547 00:44:40,020 --> 00:44:45,540 I mean with errors not only in identification or classification by forensic scientists, but also 548 00:44:46,140 --> 00:44:52,980 Due to the incompetent or fraudulent examiners and their organizational deficiencies. It's not a secret 549 00:44:52,980 --> 00:44:59,540 See if someone says that they don't lie if someone says that they they're not mistaken if someone says they have perfect memory 550 00:44:59,540 --> 00:45:01,540 This is all BS 551 00:45:01,580 --> 00:45:07,140 We're all guilty of all of that lying being imperfect, you know making up stuff 552 00:45:07,300 --> 00:45:10,500 You name it we try most of us try to be good humans 553 00:45:10,500 --> 00:45:14,300 But in the end we are subject to bias and it does impact us 554 00:45:14,300 --> 00:45:20,980 I mean even in data science the integrity of the data is question. I mean take a look at the Dana Faber 555 00:45:20,980 --> 00:45:26,100 Cancer Institute they wanted to retract flawed studies after faulty data was discovered 556 00:45:26,100 --> 00:45:30,300 I mean you've done studies and now you're gonna report these studies and you realize oh 557 00:45:31,100 --> 00:45:38,860 We goofed. I mean, how does that impact? Who does that impact? How does it impact and they've done studies on spreadsheets called the spreadsheet errors 558 00:45:39,500 --> 00:45:46,540 These studies report that nearly nine out of ten spreadsheets. That's 88 percent folks 88 percent contain errors with the majority of these errors 559 00:45:46,540 --> 00:45:53,060 Being basically avoidable, you know, and they're stemming from human errors take a look at the human errors in an airplane crashes 560 00:45:53,540 --> 00:45:56,940 That's a high number itself and making poor decisions 561 00:45:57,620 --> 00:45:59,460 And these are experts flying planes 562 00:45:59,460 --> 00:46:04,420 I mean, I don't see you know, Bob who just slammed a few beers at the bar waiting to get on this flight to 563 00:46:04,780 --> 00:46:06,380 Hoboken, New Jersey 564 00:46:06,380 --> 00:46:11,940 Take the cockpit unless he's the pilot in that case. I hope he's not drinking any beers or anything 565 00:46:11,940 --> 00:46:16,620 And if we take a look at human error rate tables typical failure rates in business 566 00:46:17,020 --> 00:46:22,020 Using common work practices range from 10 to 30 errors per hundred opportunities 567 00:46:22,700 --> 00:46:29,380 People in business. We're talking executives. We're talking office workers. These are supposed to be professionals experts in their field and again 568 00:46:29,460 --> 00:46:33,740 The error rates are high. So basically these statistics and the studies 569 00:46:34,100 --> 00:46:40,060 They demonstrate that errors among experts are basically wide for a widespread, you know, they're not just 570 00:46:40,060 --> 00:46:48,580 One or two people doing it in one or two places in one country or two countries. This is widespread across the globe folks 571 00:46:48,900 --> 00:46:54,460 Okay, folks, so this brings us to this segment of the podcast and that is how do we evaluate expert advice? 572 00:46:54,460 --> 00:46:59,460 We've talked a lot about how experts are like everyone else. They possess a little bit more knowledge 573 00:47:00,060 --> 00:47:01,860 Sometimes a lot more knowledge 574 00:47:01,860 --> 00:47:07,180 But in the end, they're not perfect and their decisions are not always sound 575 00:47:07,180 --> 00:47:11,220 So how do we evaluate them when we're being told something by an expert? 576 00:47:11,740 --> 00:47:18,420 How do we decide that what they're telling us is actually the truth and not because they're trying to mislead us? 577 00:47:19,820 --> 00:47:26,340 Maybe they're trying to manipulate us or maybe they just don't know the information themselves and they don't want to they want to save face 578 00:47:27,020 --> 00:47:32,700 So to speak or maybe they just don't stay up with the information or maybe they're just got a lot of personal biases 579 00:47:32,700 --> 00:47:37,980 Involved in their decision-making process. Maybe it's cultural. Maybe it's personal. Maybe it's, you know, religious 580 00:47:37,980 --> 00:47:41,580 I don't I don't know but I'm gonna give you some tips on how to evaluate the expert 581 00:47:41,580 --> 00:47:44,180 So the next time that you're out there and you're getting advice 582 00:47:44,860 --> 00:47:48,700 In the back of your head, you should be going. Let me let me research this. Let me find this out 583 00:47:48,700 --> 00:47:51,260 Let me see if this is an actual truth. Let me get another opinion 584 00:47:51,820 --> 00:47:56,060 And the first way to do that is to verify their credentials or our expertise. It's a very simple way 585 00:47:56,620 --> 00:48:00,140 You know, if you if you go to a doctor, what medical school did they go to now? 586 00:48:00,140 --> 00:48:05,580 That's not gonna make a big deal of difference, but it's it's gonna help because not all medical schools are created equal 587 00:48:05,900 --> 00:48:09,100 And I'm not expecting you to know which ones are or not 588 00:48:09,100 --> 00:48:13,500 But at least verify the fact that they went to medical school and in what country did they go to a medical school? 589 00:48:13,500 --> 00:48:19,100 And how much experience do they have is are they out out of residency and they just have a few years under their belt? 590 00:48:19,100 --> 00:48:23,740 Have they been doing it for 20 30 years if they've been doing it for 20 30 years that doesn't necessarily mean 591 00:48:24,300 --> 00:48:27,100 That they're good at what they're doing. They could be stale too 592 00:48:27,100 --> 00:48:29,100 So these are things you want to evaluate 593 00:48:29,660 --> 00:48:32,460 Seek a second opinion if you're out on an auto mechanic and the guy says 594 00:48:33,020 --> 00:48:37,660 You know, you take your car in and he says, oh, you need a water pump a radiator and a whole bunch of other things 595 00:48:37,660 --> 00:48:40,140 Say, you know, that's really great. I'd like to take it down to 596 00:48:40,140 --> 00:48:44,300 The southern mechanic down here and have him take a look at it. You may need three mechanics 597 00:48:44,780 --> 00:48:48,060 Don't take it to your brother Bob's friends 598 00:48:48,620 --> 00:48:51,900 Uncle's neighbor who says he's a mechanic. Okay 599 00:48:52,220 --> 00:48:53,740 Well, I don't know. He might be a mechanic 600 00:48:53,740 --> 00:48:55,740 You might take it to him for a while 601 00:48:55,740 --> 00:48:58,860 You might take it to him first and then go get your advice 602 00:48:59,500 --> 00:49:01,500 On your second or third opinion 603 00:49:01,500 --> 00:49:06,220 If someone gives you a source or someone gives you a study evaluate that source, who did the study? 604 00:49:06,860 --> 00:49:11,260 I mean, if it's a study on like I said earlier sugar is it being 605 00:49:11,900 --> 00:49:16,220 Sponsored and funded by a company that sells products that are made of sugar 606 00:49:16,860 --> 00:49:19,580 I mean, if it is it's it's heavily biased. They want to sell more sugar 607 00:49:20,220 --> 00:49:24,060 So always evaluate the source and the references and understand the consensus 608 00:49:24,060 --> 00:49:28,380 Is there an overwhelming consensus? I don't know that that's actually always the true thing though 609 00:49:28,620 --> 00:49:34,460 Because if we take religion you have a large consensus of people who believe in religion regardless of the faith 610 00:49:34,940 --> 00:49:41,260 It doesn't necessarily make it true because there's no scientific evidence to support that and that's a whole different topic for a whole different podcast 611 00:49:41,260 --> 00:49:43,260 That we'll get into sometime in the future 612 00:49:43,740 --> 00:49:45,180 but right now 613 00:49:45,180 --> 00:49:46,780 What I'm saying is 614 00:49:46,780 --> 00:49:51,260 Consensus, I don't know that I will 100% agree with that that that's a good way to 615 00:49:51,260 --> 00:49:56,860 To to determine but if you have a few people out there just a few people saying hey 616 00:49:57,660 --> 00:50:03,500 You know this new elixir works and 99% of the people say no it doesn't I probably would go with the 99% in this case 617 00:50:04,300 --> 00:50:08,860 Religion is kind of divided. I mean you got you got some on one side and others on the other side 618 00:50:09,340 --> 00:50:12,060 So that's that's a whole different topic. We'll get into that later. Like I said 619 00:50:12,780 --> 00:50:17,260 analyze the presentation the information that you're gathering or that they're the uh 620 00:50:17,260 --> 00:50:20,620 The expert is presenting to you. Are they presenting it? 621 00:50:21,420 --> 00:50:27,660 You know as expert advice, are they giving you to you in a very, you know, reliable very chronological 622 00:50:28,540 --> 00:50:30,540 systematic organized fashion 623 00:50:30,700 --> 00:50:32,700 Are they providing you with evidence? 624 00:50:32,940 --> 00:50:35,980 For their claims are they walking you through how they came up with that conclusion? 625 00:50:36,620 --> 00:50:39,420 These are all things you want to ask and want to see if it's present 626 00:50:40,300 --> 00:50:46,220 When they're presenting to you when they say many people okay, well, what are these many peoples have where's the study at? 627 00:50:46,220 --> 00:50:48,940 Oh, well, we don't have the study. It's just we know a lot of people 628 00:50:49,740 --> 00:50:52,780 Well, I know a lot of people too and so you probably know a lot of people too 629 00:50:52,780 --> 00:50:57,820 But that doesn't mean that what they're saying is true. So you always want to analyze the presentation and the information 630 00:50:58,940 --> 00:51:04,540 Check for conflicts of interest, you know, is are they being supported? Are there financial incentives? 631 00:51:05,180 --> 00:51:11,500 For example, Chief Justice Clarence Thomas taking all those vacations and not reporting the paola 632 00:51:11,500 --> 00:51:16,300 I mean, there's a conflict of interest right there. So if he's gonna push an agenda or push 633 00:51:17,020 --> 00:51:19,020 Or side with a bill or something 634 00:51:19,820 --> 00:51:25,500 You know, well, you don't know you never know but chances are he could be a little biased 635 00:51:26,060 --> 00:51:31,980 Because of the conflict of interest because of he might side in the favor and this is just a wild guess or an assumption 636 00:51:32,620 --> 00:51:37,500 And an example, but he could side with the people that support him financially when he's not reporting it 637 00:51:37,500 --> 00:51:40,700 And folks always check multiple sources 638 00:51:42,220 --> 00:51:48,540 I mean if information you're seeking is found in multiple credible sources, then the chances are 639 00:51:49,020 --> 00:51:51,020 You're probably on the right trail 640 00:51:52,060 --> 00:51:54,060 The information is probably valid 641 00:51:54,220 --> 00:51:56,220 Again, this is a gray area as well 642 00:51:57,100 --> 00:52:01,420 However, you don't want to just go to one source and simply say, oh 643 00:52:02,060 --> 00:52:06,700 I heard it from this source. It must be true. Again, that goes back to confirmation bias 644 00:52:06,700 --> 00:52:09,900 And you're only seeking out to confirm what you already believe in 645 00:52:10,140 --> 00:52:14,620 So you're not really getting to the bottom of the the truth here or the information from the expert 646 00:52:14,620 --> 00:52:17,980 You're just confirming what you already believe in and again 647 00:52:18,060 --> 00:52:21,820 That's fine if that's where you want to be but don't call it the truth because it may not be the truth 648 00:52:21,820 --> 00:52:26,060 It's just what you want to believe in and I'm okay with that if if that's all you want 649 00:52:26,220 --> 00:52:31,260 But don't come out and say that's the absolute truth or that this expert's saying that and I believe him because that's the only source 650 00:52:31,260 --> 00:52:33,820 I listen to because that's not true. Okay 651 00:52:33,820 --> 00:52:36,780 Okay, folks, what did we learn today? What did we learn today? 652 00:52:36,780 --> 00:52:41,580 We learned that experts are no different than you and I with a little bit more knowledge 653 00:52:41,820 --> 00:52:50,780 In that subject matter area and they are susceptible to all the cognitive rules in which everyone on this planet every human being is subject to 654 00:52:51,340 --> 00:52:53,340 So with that 655 00:52:53,340 --> 00:52:54,780 question 656 00:52:54,780 --> 00:52:57,580 The expert verify their source their data 657 00:52:57,580 --> 00:53:05,580 Understand their biases if they have any where they where they practiced or studied or the whole host of reasons I've given in this show 658 00:53:07,020 --> 00:53:12,140 Inform yourself empower yourself with knowledge and don't just accept the advice that you're given 659 00:53:12,700 --> 00:53:18,540 Because you're told and taught at a young age that experts no better when in fact they probably don't 660 00:53:18,860 --> 00:53:23,900 And they may just know a little bit more than you and with a little bit more study you'll probably become the expert to the expert 661 00:53:23,900 --> 00:53:26,940 In the end and I encourage you 662 00:53:27,740 --> 00:53:31,260 To approach expert advice with informed skepticism 663 00:53:31,900 --> 00:53:33,900 and personal judgment 664 00:53:33,900 --> 00:53:36,700 Question as I've said and if you have any 665 00:53:37,340 --> 00:53:43,340 Key points if you have any pointers if you want to rebut what I'm saying feel free. I'm open for discussion 666 00:53:44,140 --> 00:53:45,660 I enjoy 667 00:53:45,660 --> 00:53:47,660 Open-minded discussion 668 00:53:47,660 --> 00:53:49,660 You could find me on my youtube channel 669 00:53:50,220 --> 00:53:52,220 at Alan staffer 670 00:53:52,220 --> 00:53:57,580 Or my website, but if you want to do a dialogue I would gravitate towards youtube where I had this podcast 671 00:53:57,580 --> 00:54:02,140 But also this podcast can be heard on multiple stations across the globe 672 00:54:02,700 --> 00:54:04,700 So if you liked what you heard 673 00:54:05,260 --> 00:54:07,260 If you want to enlighten yourself more 674 00:54:07,500 --> 00:54:11,900 About the unnecessary scripts that were taught as kids to believe 675 00:54:12,940 --> 00:54:18,700 In adulthood I encourage you to subscribe to my podcast on multiple platforms 676 00:54:18,700 --> 00:54:19,660 Apple 677 00:54:19,660 --> 00:54:21,660 Apple 678 00:54:21,660 --> 00:54:23,660 Apple podcast spotify 679 00:54:25,020 --> 00:54:26,620 Deezer 680 00:54:26,620 --> 00:54:28,220 iHeartRadio 681 00:54:28,220 --> 00:54:51,580 And everywhere that you like to listen to podcast. I'm alan stafford. I appreciate you listening to the show until next time. Stay skeptical 682 00:54:58,220 --> 00:55:00,220 You 683 00:55:28,220 --> 00:55:30,220 You 684 00:55:58,220 --> 00:56:00,220 You 685 00:56:28,220 --> 00:56:30,220 You 686 00:56:58,220 --> 00:57:00,220 You 687 00:57:28,220 --> 00:57:30,220 You 688 00:57:58,220 --> 00:58:00,220 You