WEBVTT 00:00:07.639 --> 00:00:10.839 Howdy Star Gazers and welcome to this episode 00:00:10.839 --> 00:00:14.359 of Star Trails. My name is Drew and I'll be your 00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:16.920 guide to the night sky for the week of November 00:00:16.920 --> 00:00:21.559 the 9th to the 15th. This week we're going to 00:00:21.559 --> 00:00:24.660 kick things off with yet another exercise related 00:00:24.660 --> 00:00:27.920 to a subject that I find endlessly fascinating. 00:00:28.359 --> 00:00:30.960 We're going to take another look at the Drake 00:00:30.960 --> 00:00:34.820 Equation, a tool used to estimate how many intelligent 00:00:34.820 --> 00:00:38.320 species we might have in our home galaxy. And 00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:40.719 we're going to use that equation to simulate 00:00:40.719 --> 00:00:44.119 more than a million variations of the Milky Way, 00:00:44.579 --> 00:00:47.359 employing some quantum physics along the way 00:00:47.359 --> 00:00:50.479 to kickstart our experiment. I think you're going 00:00:50.479 --> 00:00:53.640 to be blown away by the implications, because 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:57.560 I know I was. Later, we'll check in on the night 00:00:57.560 --> 00:01:00.259 sky and I'll tell you how I captured an image 00:01:00.259 --> 00:01:03.340 of last week's full beaver moon using some of 00:01:03.340 --> 00:01:07.340 my favorite astronomy smartphone apps. Whether 00:01:07.340 --> 00:01:09.760 you're tuning in from the backyard, the balcony, 00:01:09.920 --> 00:01:12.739 or just your imagination, I'm glad you're here. 00:01:13.200 --> 00:01:15.620 So grab a comfortable spot and let's see what 00:01:15.620 --> 00:01:19.519 the universe holds for us this week. A couple 00:01:19.519 --> 00:01:23.439 weeks ago, we explored the Fermi paradox, the 00:01:23.439 --> 00:01:26.959 idea that in a universe so vast, we should be 00:01:26.959 --> 00:01:30.120 hearing or seeing indications of intelligent 00:01:30.120 --> 00:01:34.359 life. Yet, here we are in the cosmic void, seemingly 00:01:34.359 --> 00:01:39.459 all by ourselves. For the past 50 years or more, 00:01:40.019 --> 00:01:42.219 programs like the Search for Extraterrestrial 00:01:42.219 --> 00:01:46.319 Intelligence, or SETI, have churned away, theorizing 00:01:46.319 --> 00:01:49.079 and scanning the skies with radio telescopes 00:01:49.079 --> 00:01:52.719 in search of something, anything, to tell us 00:01:52.719 --> 00:01:57.099 that we're not alone. And for two decades, volunteers 00:01:57.099 --> 00:02:00.900 even donated their CPU cycles to analyzing radio 00:02:00.900 --> 00:02:05.439 data via the SETI At Home Project. pioneering 00:02:05.439 --> 00:02:08.620 distributed computing methodologies in the process. 00:02:09.580 --> 00:02:14.620 And so far we've found nothing. But surely something 00:02:14.620 --> 00:02:18.500 must be out there. So in this episode, we'll 00:02:18.500 --> 00:02:22.219 turn to the world of statistics and data analysis, 00:02:22.620 --> 00:02:24.819 and I promise it's not going to be as boring 00:02:24.819 --> 00:02:28.919 as it sounds. We're going to use a quantum computer 00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:32.340 to tap into the inherent randomness of the universe 00:02:32.340 --> 00:02:35.780 itself. And we're going to use that information 00:02:35.780 --> 00:02:39.060 to run the Drake Equation more than a million 00:02:39.060 --> 00:02:43.120 times. We're going to play dice with the universe 00:02:43.120 --> 00:02:46.500 and explore the probability of extraterrestrial 00:02:46.500 --> 00:02:52.719 life. To start, let's get a refresher on what 00:02:52.719 --> 00:02:56.560 the Drake Equation is. I've sort of had a lifelong 00:02:56.560 --> 00:02:59.520 fascination with it since I cracked open Carl 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:03.400 Sagan's Cosmos as a preteen and I first encountered 00:03:03.400 --> 00:03:07.659 it. The idea that an equation could make a prediction 00:03:07.659 --> 00:03:11.180 about the density of alien life sparked profound 00:03:11.180 --> 00:03:15.419 wonder in me at that age. We talked about it 00:03:15.419 --> 00:03:19.240 in some detail back in episode 85, the silence 00:03:19.240 --> 00:03:22.819 between the stars. Today we're going to dig in 00:03:22.819 --> 00:03:26.090 a little deeper. You may recall from that earlier 00:03:26.090 --> 00:03:28.610 episode that the Drake equation was an attempt 00:03:28.610 --> 00:03:32.310 by scientist Frank Drake to mathematically make 00:03:32.310 --> 00:03:38.409 sense of the Fermi paradox. In 1961, Drake hosted 00:03:38.409 --> 00:03:41.150 a small meeting at the Green Bank Observatory 00:03:41.150 --> 00:03:44.430 in West Virginia, the first gathering devoted 00:03:44.430 --> 00:03:47.110 to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. 00:03:47.810 --> 00:03:50.889 He scribbled a simple formula on a blackboard 00:03:50.889 --> 00:03:53.860 to structure the discussion. It's really just 00:03:53.860 --> 00:03:56.580 a series of numbers that we multiply together. 00:03:56.800 --> 00:04:12.300 Here's the equation. And if you were counting, 00:04:12.479 --> 00:04:16.800 that's just seven variables. It's almost unnervingly 00:04:16.800 --> 00:04:21.019 simple on the surface. Seven factors. Seven cosmic 00:04:21.019 --> 00:04:25.120 knobs, if you will. and it breaks down like this. 00:04:25.860 --> 00:04:29.980 R is the average rate of star formation in our 00:04:29.980 --> 00:04:34.899 galaxy. Fp is the fraction of those stars with 00:04:34.899 --> 00:04:39.079 planets. Ne is the average number of planets 00:04:39.079 --> 00:04:43.620 that can potentially support life. F1 is the 00:04:43.620 --> 00:04:46.620 fraction of planets that actually develop life. 00:04:47.620 --> 00:04:51.459 Fi is the fraction of planets that develop intelligent 00:04:51.459 --> 00:04:56.000 life. FC is the fraction of civilizations that 00:04:56.000 --> 00:04:59.279 release signs of their existence into space. 00:05:00.040 --> 00:05:03.180 And L is the length of time such civilizations 00:05:03.180 --> 00:05:07.399 release those signals of their existence. Just 00:05:07.399 --> 00:05:11.100 multiply them all together and you get N, the 00:05:11.100 --> 00:05:14.000 number of intelligent civilizations in the Milky 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:18.209 Way right now. But this is where the simplicity 00:05:18.209 --> 00:05:21.410 collapses, because we don't know any of those 00:05:21.410 --> 00:05:25.149 variables with any confidence. We only have one 00:05:25.149 --> 00:05:29.329 biological data point, that's us. We have one 00:05:29.329 --> 00:05:33.009 technological species data point, that's us again. 00:05:33.649 --> 00:05:38.370 We have one lifetime data point, also us. And 00:05:38.370 --> 00:05:41.029 since we don't know where our own story ends 00:05:41.029 --> 00:05:45.540 yet, even that data point is incomplete. So when 00:05:45.540 --> 00:05:48.279 people plug numbers into Drake and they solve 00:05:48.279 --> 00:05:52.920 for in that neat answer is an illusion Drake 00:05:52.920 --> 00:05:56.240 isn't an equation you simply solve it forces 00:05:56.240 --> 00:05:58.800 you to confront the fact that everything important 00:05:58.800 --> 00:06:03.920 in that multiplication is unknown So what do 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:07.060 you do with an equation whose inputs are unknown 00:06:07.060 --> 00:06:11.029 you treat those inputs probabilistically You 00:06:11.029 --> 00:06:14.550 don't just pick single values, you define plausible 00:06:14.550 --> 00:06:18.389 ranges based on astrophysics, exoplanet surveys, 00:06:19.250 --> 00:06:22.769 and reasonable scientific priors. And then you 00:06:22.769 --> 00:06:25.889 sample from those ranges again and again and 00:06:25.889 --> 00:06:30.029 again. You generate not one answer, but a landscape 00:06:30.029 --> 00:06:36.199 of possible answers, a distribution. This is 00:06:36.199 --> 00:06:39.379 how modern SETI researchers think about Drake, 00:06:39.660 --> 00:06:42.579 not as an answer machine, but as a probability 00:06:42.579 --> 00:06:46.279 engine. So in that spirit, we're about to run 00:06:46.279 --> 00:06:50.160 some code to Big Bang more than a million versions 00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:53.040 of the Milky Way and see what those universes 00:06:53.040 --> 00:06:57.879 tell us. We are in effect gambling with the universe's 00:06:57.879 --> 00:07:00.980 uncertainty, and we're going to roll nature's 00:07:00.980 --> 00:07:06.279 dice using some quantum mechanics. Einstein famously 00:07:06.279 --> 00:07:09.759 said, God does not play dice with the universe. 00:07:10.480 --> 00:07:13.560 He wasn't a fan of quantum randomness and he 00:07:13.560 --> 00:07:15.860 believed the laws governing the universe were 00:07:15.860 --> 00:07:19.060 fixed. But we're going to play dice with the 00:07:19.060 --> 00:07:23.819 universe anyway. My apologies to Albert. Here's 00:07:23.819 --> 00:07:27.060 the plan. We're going to make use of the general 00:07:27.060 --> 00:07:30.079 programming language of Python to produce more 00:07:30.079 --> 00:07:32.920 than a million outcomes of the Drake equation. 00:07:33.420 --> 00:07:36.720 The program will randomly select a number for 00:07:36.720 --> 00:07:40.079 each variable from a predefined range of conservative, 00:07:40.379 --> 00:07:44.120 educated estimates for each. Think of it as generating 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:48.399 a million versions of the Milky Way. The predefined 00:07:48.399 --> 00:07:51.120 ranges for each variable are the glue that makes 00:07:51.120 --> 00:07:54.319 this work. We're going to use some plausible 00:07:54.319 --> 00:07:56.800 data drawn from everything we know about the 00:07:56.800 --> 00:08:00.560 universe and everything we don't. These aren't 00:08:00.560 --> 00:08:03.339 my ranges, by the way. These are some widely 00:08:03.339 --> 00:08:07.040 accepted best -guess envelopes based on papers, 00:08:07.800 --> 00:08:11.720 expert intuition, SETI tradition, astrobiology, 00:08:11.939 --> 00:08:16.120 and more. Once the program runs, we'll analyze 00:08:16.120 --> 00:08:19.360 the resulting data. We're looking for two extremes, 00:08:19.660 --> 00:08:23.060 the highest number of estimated intelligent civilizations 00:08:23.060 --> 00:08:26.319 compared to the lowest number, and we'll be on 00:08:26.319 --> 00:08:30.100 the lookout for a zero result. meaning an iteration 00:08:30.100 --> 00:08:34.559 produced no intelligent civilizations. This approach 00:08:34.559 --> 00:08:39.860 is called a Monte Carlo simulation. To add some 00:08:39.860 --> 00:08:43.220 philosophical flair, I specifically wanted to 00:08:43.220 --> 00:08:48.399 seed my sim with a 128 -bit random number produced 00:08:48.399 --> 00:08:52.259 by a quantum computer. It sounds like science 00:08:52.259 --> 00:08:55.889 fiction, but it's not. For this experiment, I 00:08:55.889 --> 00:09:00.149 used IBM's quantum computing platform via their 00:09:00.149 --> 00:09:04.009 Qiskit framework. It's a real quantum computer 00:09:04.009 --> 00:09:07.549 that we can rent time on. It isn't a simulation. 00:09:07.669 --> 00:09:11.389 It's actual superconducting qubits chilling near 00:09:11.389 --> 00:09:17.690 absolute zero. Why 128 bits? Well, this is a 00:09:17.690 --> 00:09:21.559 cryptography grade random number. It represents 00:09:21.559 --> 00:09:26.340 2 to the 128th power in terms of possible outcomes. 00:09:27.059 --> 00:09:29.720 That's more possibilities than there are atoms 00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:34.620 in a typical galaxy. We wrote a simple quantum 00:09:34.620 --> 00:09:39.279 random number generator, a QRNG in Python, with 00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:42.600 some help from an AI, because this realm is way 00:09:42.600 --> 00:09:46.879 beyond my skill set. This code essentially generates 00:09:46.879 --> 00:09:52.639 128 quantum coin flips. And if you think creating 00:09:52.639 --> 00:09:55.659 a quantum random number generator sounds like 00:09:55.659 --> 00:09:58.139 overkill for what's usually a simple randomized 00:09:58.139 --> 00:10:00.759 function in almost every programming language, 00:10:01.299 --> 00:10:04.080 you're not wrong. But we're using quantum physics 00:10:04.080 --> 00:10:06.240 to generate this number because that's about 00:10:06.240 --> 00:10:08.899 as close as we can get to asking the universe 00:10:08.899 --> 00:10:13.259 itself for randomness. The quantum computer is 00:10:13.259 --> 00:10:16.379 literally driven by the uncertainty built into 00:10:16.379 --> 00:10:20.700 the fabric of reality. Quantum computers don't 00:10:20.700 --> 00:10:24.379 use bits, the ones and zeros used in classical 00:10:24.379 --> 00:10:28.080 computers. They use qubits, which are similar 00:10:28.080 --> 00:10:30.720 to traditional bits, but they can exist in a 00:10:30.720 --> 00:10:33.840 state of superposition, meaning they could either 00:10:33.840 --> 00:10:37.620 be a zero or a one. In fact, they have no state 00:10:37.620 --> 00:10:40.980 until they're measured, meaning they hold multiple 00:10:40.980 --> 00:10:44.309 possibilities until we force an outcome. You 00:10:44.309 --> 00:10:46.730 may have heard this called the observer effect 00:10:46.730 --> 00:10:49.909 when it comes to quantum mechanics. You may have 00:10:49.909 --> 00:10:52.690 also heard of the thought experiment known as 00:10:52.690 --> 00:10:57.049 Schrodinger's cat, a feline in a box that exists 00:10:57.049 --> 00:11:00.929 in both an alive and dead state, until we open 00:11:00.929 --> 00:11:04.409 the box and look at it. That's quantum mechanics 00:11:04.409 --> 00:11:07.269 at its most basic, and that's also why it's so 00:11:07.269 --> 00:11:10.779 weird. These are behaviors at the smallest level 00:11:10.779 --> 00:11:16.039 of existence, individual particles. Our Python 00:11:16.039 --> 00:11:19.159 script constructed a tiny quantum circuit that 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:22.759 creates qubits in superposition and collapses 00:11:22.759 --> 00:11:25.659 them when they're measured. And we harvested 00:11:25.659 --> 00:11:28.600 the randomness from that collapse to generate 00:11:28.600 --> 00:11:32.779 our seed. Essentially, we fire qubits through 00:11:32.779 --> 00:11:37.679 a series of quantum logic gates 128 times. The 00:11:37.679 --> 00:11:41.519 gates force the qubits into a one or zero outcome. 00:11:42.379 --> 00:11:45.919 Once we have 128 ones and zeros, we convert that 00:11:45.919 --> 00:11:49.480 binary string into base 10 decimal, and that 00:11:49.480 --> 00:11:53.820 extremely random number becomes the seed. Strangely, 00:11:53.960 --> 00:11:56.519 operating a quantum computer reminds me of the 00:11:56.519 --> 00:12:00.379 old mainframe systems of the 60s and 70s. To 00:12:00.379 --> 00:12:04.049 use one, you submit a job to it. Your job waits 00:12:04.049 --> 00:12:06.929 in a queue until the machine can run your code, 00:12:07.370 --> 00:12:12.230 then it returns a result. IBM's Qiskit framework 00:12:12.230 --> 00:12:15.809 lets you both simulate a quantum computer and 00:12:15.809 --> 00:12:19.690 send jobs to their real one via a public application 00:12:19.690 --> 00:12:24.210 programming interface, or API in coding parlance. 00:12:25.049 --> 00:12:27.830 So before I started burning qubits on the real 00:12:27.830 --> 00:12:30.929 hardware, I ran a local sim to make sure the 00:12:30.929 --> 00:12:33.909 code worked as intended. When I was satisfied 00:12:33.909 --> 00:12:36.909 with the output, I submitted the job to IBM and 00:12:36.909 --> 00:12:39.129 waited a minute or two for the result to come 00:12:39.129 --> 00:12:45.710 back. And there it was, a QRNG seed, the randomness 00:12:45.710 --> 00:12:48.889 that sets our experiment into motion. And let 00:12:48.889 --> 00:12:51.529 me tell you, that was a lot of work to get a 00:12:51.529 --> 00:12:54.389 random number. But the beauty of this method 00:12:54.389 --> 00:12:57.330 would reveal itself later in a moment of realization 00:12:57.330 --> 00:13:00.669 that left me in a state of both shock and awe. 00:13:02.139 --> 00:13:04.659 The rest of our calculations would take place 00:13:04.659 --> 00:13:08.299 in a very simple Python script here on my workstation. 00:13:08.539 --> 00:13:11.139 And by the way, I'll make all of my code available 00:13:11.139 --> 00:13:13.779 if you want to try and run it. Check the show 00:13:13.779 --> 00:13:18.340 notes for details. In classical computing, a 00:13:18.340 --> 00:13:21.120 seed initializes the random number generator 00:13:21.120 --> 00:13:24.360 in your programming language of choice. Once 00:13:24.360 --> 00:13:27.320 you have a seed, every random number after that 00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:31.190 traces back to that original seed. We're starting 00:13:31.190 --> 00:13:34.409 with a quantum seed, but we're turning that chaos 00:13:34.409 --> 00:13:42.870 into classical determinism. On the first run, 00:13:43.049 --> 00:13:47.110 I set up my script to generate 250 ,000 solved 00:13:47.110 --> 00:13:50.750 versions of the Drake equation. It ran in seconds. 00:13:51.049 --> 00:13:53.769 Think of each version as one possible cosmic 00:13:53.769 --> 00:13:57.500 outcome. Basically, we simulated a quarter million 00:13:57.500 --> 00:14:00.440 pocket universes, each with its own set of Drake 00:14:00.440 --> 00:14:04.299 parameters. Some outcomes produced thousands 00:14:04.299 --> 00:14:07.159 of intelligent species, some produced hundreds. 00:14:07.799 --> 00:14:10.759 The maximum seemed to land somewhere just under 00:14:10.759 --> 00:14:13.080 a quarter million intelligent species in the 00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:17.399 galaxy. That's pretty insane. Most runs produced 00:14:17.399 --> 00:14:22.659 galaxies with at least 700 species. So I ran 00:14:22.659 --> 00:14:26.100 the Monte Carlo sim again, this time with a half 00:14:26.100 --> 00:14:29.639 million outcomes, then a million, and then two 00:14:29.639 --> 00:14:33.399 million. Strangely, the numbers didn't vary by 00:14:33.399 --> 00:14:36.120 much, but here's the part that hit me like a 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:40.879 dinosaur -killing asteroid. In each run, seeded 00:14:40.879 --> 00:14:44.980 by that actual quantum hardware, zero universes 00:14:44.980 --> 00:14:49.759 came up empty. Zero. In other words, all the 00:14:49.759 --> 00:14:52.879 universes we simulated produced intelligent life, 00:14:53.259 --> 00:14:56.059 based on the conservative range of values we 00:14:56.059 --> 00:15:01.100 plugged into the Drake equation. Let me state 00:15:01.100 --> 00:15:05.100 that another way. A real quantum mechanical process, 00:15:05.379 --> 00:15:08.620 not a software algorithm, but a literal collapse 00:15:08.620 --> 00:15:12.320 event inside superconducting hardware gave us 00:15:12.320 --> 00:15:15.220 a seed that led to a distribution of data that 00:15:15.220 --> 00:15:18.419 tells us we're probably not alone in the universe. 00:15:19.399 --> 00:15:22.419 I don't think I breathed for about a full minute 00:15:22.419 --> 00:15:25.539 as this realization washed over me, and even 00:15:25.539 --> 00:15:28.980 now I get chills thinking about it. Now this 00:15:28.980 --> 00:15:31.139 doesn't mean we've proven anything. It doesn't 00:15:31.139 --> 00:15:33.720 mean aliens are guaranteed. It doesn't mean the 00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:36.700 equation reveals the truth. But it does mean 00:15:36.700 --> 00:15:39.299 that when you explore the space of plausible 00:15:39.299 --> 00:15:42.740 Milky Ways with honest scientific uncertainty, 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:47.019 there's almost no chance that we're alone. And 00:15:47.019 --> 00:15:49.679 just for fun, I tried to get absurd. I tried 00:15:49.679 --> 00:15:53.259 to simulate a billion universes. That's when 00:15:53.259 --> 00:15:57.320 my workstation threw up the white flag. The CPU, 00:15:57.460 --> 00:16:01.320 all 24 cores of it, shot up to its maximum 5 00:16:01.320 --> 00:16:04.679 GHz clock speed. The RAM usage hit the ceiling 00:16:04.679 --> 00:16:08.240 at 64 gigs and the cooling fans spun up like 00:16:08.240 --> 00:16:11.039 jet engines. It completely choked and the funny 00:16:11.039 --> 00:16:13.840 thing is it didn't really matter. We already 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:16.259 saw everything we needed to see back at a quarter 00:16:16.259 --> 00:16:19.460 million samples. And it was completely stable 00:16:19.460 --> 00:16:22.980 by one million. The shape of the uncertainty 00:16:22.980 --> 00:16:26.940 reveals itself quickly. And throwing more universes 00:16:26.940 --> 00:16:29.879 at it doesn't make reality any more certain. 00:16:30.419 --> 00:16:33.639 You just generate heat and thermodynamic suffering 00:16:33.639 --> 00:16:40.600 on the CPU. This Monte Carlo exercise, this million 00:16:40.600 --> 00:16:43.379 universe experiment, it isn't meant to be proof, 00:16:43.679 --> 00:16:46.960 it simply offers perspective. We don't get a 00:16:46.960 --> 00:16:50.059 single number from Drake. We get a distribution 00:16:50.059 --> 00:16:53.220 of possibility. And inside that distribution, 00:16:53.460 --> 00:16:56.460 the middle ground, the typical universe, contains 00:16:56.460 --> 00:17:00.539 neighbors, sometimes a few, sometimes many. And 00:17:00.539 --> 00:17:03.259 we didn't bias that outcome with wishful thinking. 00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:07.039 We seeded that simulation with randomness drawn 00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:10.319 from quantum measurement, the most fundamental 00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:14.589 unpredictability that nature gives us. People 00:17:14.589 --> 00:17:17.049 think the Drake equation is about estimating 00:17:17.049 --> 00:17:20.009 aliens. I think it's actually about estimating 00:17:20.009 --> 00:17:23.690 ourselves. It forces us to confront how narrow 00:17:23.690 --> 00:17:26.910 our experience is and how broad the universe 00:17:26.910 --> 00:17:35.029 might be. The Fermi paradox wonders, where is 00:17:35.029 --> 00:17:38.589 everybody? Drake tells us there might be many 00:17:38.589 --> 00:17:41.809 somebodies, but probability and distance and 00:17:41.809 --> 00:17:46.069 lifetimes might keep us apart. Scientists working 00:17:46.069 --> 00:17:49.289 on Drake today are pushing into better estimations, 00:17:49.470 --> 00:17:52.930 especially around habitable planets and biosignatures. 00:17:53.710 --> 00:17:56.809 The James Webb Space Telescope and future missions 00:17:56.809 --> 00:18:00.470 may eventually constrain the F1 parameter, life 00:18:00.470 --> 00:18:03.269 emergence, far more than we ever could before. 00:18:04.480 --> 00:18:07.420 Exoplanet atmospheric chemistry may eventually 00:18:07.420 --> 00:18:10.539 give us actual statistics, not just speculative 00:18:10.539 --> 00:18:14.460 boundaries. And the biggest uncertainty, L, the 00:18:14.460 --> 00:18:17.900 lifetime of communicative civilizations, may 00:18:17.900 --> 00:18:21.420 be the most existential. Because its true value 00:18:21.420 --> 00:18:24.599 might say more about our future than our past. 00:18:27.279 --> 00:18:30.549 And maybe that's the deepest irony here. The 00:18:30.549 --> 00:18:33.430 Drake Equation may eventually tell us more about 00:18:33.430 --> 00:18:36.450 what kind of species we're capable of becoming 00:18:36.450 --> 00:18:39.910 than it tells us about the species that already 00:18:39.910 --> 00:18:46.109 exist somewhere else. With that, let's step out 00:18:46.109 --> 00:18:48.950 of the multiverse and drop back into the single 00:18:48.950 --> 00:18:51.910 universe we inhabit, the one overhead tonight, 00:18:52.369 --> 00:18:54.710 and talk about what's happening in the real night 00:18:54.710 --> 00:18:57.769 sky this week. That's coming up after the break. 00:18:58.150 --> 00:19:15.200 Stay with us. Welcome back. Before we get into 00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:17.960 this week's sky, I wanted to give another quick 00:19:17.960 --> 00:19:21.559 observation report. As you all recall, the full 00:19:21.559 --> 00:19:25.279 moon was last week and it was a supermoon. Sometimes 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:28.299 I enjoy photographing a full moon. My favorite 00:19:28.299 --> 00:19:31.039 shots show the moon in relation to the urban 00:19:31.039 --> 00:19:34.440 landscape. I love how the moon looks gigantic 00:19:34.440 --> 00:19:37.420 near the horizon, an effect we call the moon 00:19:37.420 --> 00:19:40.660 illusion. It's not bigger, it just seems bigger 00:19:40.660 --> 00:19:43.000 when it's adjacent to objects that we already 00:19:43.000 --> 00:19:47.089 understand the scale of. So last Tuesday was 00:19:47.089 --> 00:19:49.970 a gorgeous clear evening, and I didn't have any 00:19:49.970 --> 00:19:53.029 after work commitments So I drove out to a location 00:19:53.029 --> 00:19:56.609 I've shot from in the past a highway overpass 00:19:56.609 --> 00:20:01.130 just outside the city that faces due east Using 00:20:01.130 --> 00:20:04.309 a 200 millimeter lens on my full -frame camera 00:20:04.309 --> 00:20:07.869 I managed to capture a massive moon just as it 00:20:07.869 --> 00:20:11.049 rose over the skyline I only had a few minutes 00:20:11.049 --> 00:20:13.980 to get the shot as once the moon rises higher 00:20:13.980 --> 00:20:17.160 and the ambient light dips, it's hard to balance 00:20:17.160 --> 00:20:19.819 the moon's brightness with the city's darkness. 00:20:20.420 --> 00:20:22.980 Twilight, with some light in the sky, works the 00:20:22.980 --> 00:20:26.799 best. If you'd like to see the photo, check the 00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:30.000 show notes for a link. And just know that capturing 00:20:30.000 --> 00:20:33.579 a shot like this isn't luck, it's planning. There 00:20:33.579 --> 00:20:36.140 are three apps I lean on when I want to line 00:20:36.140 --> 00:20:39.980 up the moon precisely with the skyline. Stellarium, 00:20:40.190 --> 00:20:44.049 photo pills, and the photographer's ephemeris. 00:20:44.369 --> 00:20:47.369 Stellarium gives me the astronomy first view. 00:20:47.829 --> 00:20:50.869 I can preview the night sky exactly as it will 00:20:50.869 --> 00:20:53.849 appear from my location, jump forward in time, 00:20:54.049 --> 00:20:57.990 and verify altitude and azimuth. That tells me 00:20:57.990 --> 00:21:00.990 when and where the moon will be above the horizon. 00:21:02.430 --> 00:21:05.490 Photo pills takes that same information and grounds 00:21:05.490 --> 00:21:07.970 it into the language photographers think in. 00:21:08.059 --> 00:21:11.759 exact rise time, exact bearing, and whether the 00:21:11.759 --> 00:21:15.259 moon's trajectory will intersect a specific place 00:21:15.259 --> 00:21:19.279 on Earth, if I stand right here. This app uses 00:21:19.279 --> 00:21:21.900 augmented reality to help you place the moon 00:21:21.900 --> 00:21:25.000 or sun in your scene. I can check focal lengths, 00:21:25.619 --> 00:21:28.079 distances, compression, and get confidence that 00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:31.920 the scale will look right. And the photographer's 00:21:31.920 --> 00:21:34.700 ephemeris helps lock the terrestrial geometry 00:21:34.700 --> 00:21:37.799 in. That's the piece that tells me where to physically 00:21:37.799 --> 00:21:41.619 stand, which road, which hilltop, and even which 00:21:41.619 --> 00:21:44.720 building the moon will appear behind. It shows 00:21:44.720 --> 00:21:48.039 the rise line across the map, and I can drag 00:21:48.039 --> 00:21:51.660 my shooting location until the moon's path intersects 00:21:51.660 --> 00:21:55.319 the exact building I want. Together, those three 00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:58.619 apps turn an event that looks lucky into something 00:21:58.619 --> 00:22:01.859 you can intentionally design, days or even weeks 00:22:01.859 --> 00:22:05.480 ahead of time. The shot begins before you ever 00:22:05.480 --> 00:22:09.019 set the tripod down. I'll include links in the 00:22:09.019 --> 00:22:11.519 show notes to these resources if you're interested. 00:22:18.519 --> 00:22:21.640 This week the moon slides from a waning gibbous 00:22:21.640 --> 00:22:23.980 toward the last quarter phase, which happens 00:22:23.980 --> 00:22:27.099 on Wednesday, the 12th, and the very early hours 00:22:27.099 --> 00:22:30.039 of the morning. After that, the moon shrinks 00:22:30.039 --> 00:22:32.680 into a thinner crescent each night, which means 00:22:32.680 --> 00:22:35.380 a darker sky window is opening up as we head 00:22:35.380 --> 00:22:39.000 toward the weekend. Saturn still rules the early 00:22:39.000 --> 00:22:42.039 evening sky over in the southeast. The rings 00:22:42.039 --> 00:22:45.019 are almost edge -on now, so in a telescope they're 00:22:45.019 --> 00:22:49.170 a fine thin line. Jupiter steals the second half 00:22:49.170 --> 00:22:51.970 of the night. It rises later in the evening and 00:22:51.970 --> 00:22:55.369 is high before dawn. The moon makes a close pass 00:22:55.369 --> 00:22:58.049 with Jupiter Monday night into Tuesday morning, 00:22:58.410 --> 00:23:00.990 so if you're out late or awake before sunrise 00:23:00.990 --> 00:23:04.849 on the 11th, take a look for that pairing. Uranus 00:23:04.849 --> 00:23:07.710 is also in the evening sky and headed toward 00:23:07.710 --> 00:23:10.990 opposition later this month. If you have binoculars 00:23:10.990 --> 00:23:13.630 and a dark sky, spend a little time trying to 00:23:13.630 --> 00:23:16.589 pick it out. It'll look like a tiny blue -green 00:23:16.589 --> 00:23:20.349 star. Neptune is in the evenings too, but you'll 00:23:20.349 --> 00:23:24.470 need a telescope. Venus is now extremely low 00:23:24.470 --> 00:23:27.029 in the morning twilight. If you have a clear 00:23:27.029 --> 00:23:30.190 flat eastern horizon, you might catch it in the 00:23:30.190 --> 00:23:33.589 dawn light later in the week. Especially if you 00:23:33.589 --> 00:23:35.950 pair it with the delicate crescent moon Friday 00:23:35.950 --> 00:23:39.859 or Saturday morning. Mars and Mercury, meanwhile, 00:23:39.940 --> 00:23:43.900 are essentially lost in the sun's glare. We also 00:23:43.900 --> 00:23:47.000 have some meteor action this week. The northern 00:23:47.000 --> 00:23:49.980 taurids peak on Tuesday night into Wednesday, 00:23:50.539 --> 00:23:54.160 the 11th into the 12th. This is not a high -rate 00:23:54.160 --> 00:23:56.500 shower, but the taurids are known for bright, 00:23:56.819 --> 00:24:00.460 slow fireballs. Moonlight will wash out the dimmer 00:24:00.460 --> 00:24:02.619 ones, but if you're patient, you might still 00:24:02.619 --> 00:24:06.140 spot a good one. And the Leonids are right behind 00:24:06.140 --> 00:24:09.259 them. Their main peak will arrive next week under 00:24:09.259 --> 00:24:13.539 much better moon conditions. The deep sky season 00:24:13.539 --> 00:24:16.519 continues to get better as the moon wanes. The 00:24:16.519 --> 00:24:19.720 Andromeda galaxy is high after dark. So are the 00:24:19.720 --> 00:24:23.259 Pleiades and the Hyades, perfect binocular targets. 00:24:25.740 --> 00:24:28.380 You know, at the end of all this, numbers are 00:24:28.380 --> 00:24:32.140 only part of why we look up. The equations, the 00:24:32.140 --> 00:24:35.119 instruments, the simulations, they help us measure 00:24:35.119 --> 00:24:39.410 possibility. But wonder lives before measurement. 00:24:40.150 --> 00:24:43.309 Wonder is older than science. Wonder is the first 00:24:43.309 --> 00:24:47.130 tool we ever had. When we look at the night sky, 00:24:47.390 --> 00:24:49.789 we aren't just observing the universe. We're 00:24:49.789 --> 00:24:53.730 also observing ourselves. The cosmos isn't just 00:24:53.730 --> 00:24:56.470 a place we study. It's a mirror that we hold 00:24:56.470 --> 00:25:00.880 up to our own short, small moment in time. So 00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:04.180 yes, we count stars, we model probability, we 00:25:04.180 --> 00:25:07.339 write code, we build telescopes, but beneath 00:25:07.339 --> 00:25:09.640 all that we're trying to remember that being 00:25:09.640 --> 00:25:13.599 alive is strange and extraordinary, and the very 00:25:13.599 --> 00:25:16.779 act of wondering is itself part of what makes 00:25:16.779 --> 00:25:20.759 us human. We look up not just because the sky 00:25:20.759 --> 00:25:23.160 is beautiful, but because it reminds us that 00:25:23.160 --> 00:25:26.500 there's always more to know, and that curiosity 00:25:26.500 --> 00:25:33.240 is a kind of hope. If you found this episode 00:25:33.240 --> 00:25:35.380 interesting, please share it with a friend who 00:25:35.380 --> 00:25:38.119 might enjoy it. The easiest way to do that is 00:25:38.119 --> 00:25:42.019 by sending folks to our website, StarTrails .Show. 00:25:42.539 --> 00:25:44.839 And if you want to support us, use the link on 00:25:44.839 --> 00:25:47.599 the site to buy me a coffee. It really helps. 00:25:48.400 --> 00:25:51.319 Be sure to follow Star Trails on Blue Sky and 00:25:51.319 --> 00:25:54.619 YouTube. Links are in the show notes. Until we 00:25:54.619 --> 00:25:57.660 meet again beneath the stars, clear skies, everyone.