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Hey, we're really excited to welcome Caleb Merrill to the podcast.

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He is the the OG of Avalanche Podcast.

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If you haven't heard him on the Avalanche Hour podcast, you really need to check it out.

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Caleb's got a unique position in the Avalanche industry.

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He works as a mountain guide, Avalanche forecaster and Avalanche educator.

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He's up in Eastern Oregon, and he's also talked to pretty much everyone in the

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industry on his podcast.

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So he's been exposed to all kinds of different perspectives and ideas.

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And he's kind of like this unique position to spread out all those ideas to the rest

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of the Avalanche world.

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So welcome, Caleb.

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Good to have you here.

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Jeff, Dave, thanks for having me.

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Yeah, happy to be here.

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Yeah, dude, we're I'm feeling leveled up right now.

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This is this is episode one of season two.

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We got the OG, like the biggest podcaster in this space right here.

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Well, you guys, you guys are talking it up quite a bit here, but, you know, the Avalanche Hour

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podcast has been a super fun project of mine, kind of a side gig.

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And, and, you know, it kind of came about in 2016.

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I was driving to ISSW in Breckenridge with some friends and, and we were like, oh,

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let's get our brains tuned up for this ISSW.

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Like there must be some podcasts about Avalanches.

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So you put in a simple podcast search for Avalanches and all that came up was the Colorado

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Avalanche hockey team podcast, right?

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Which I'm sure has a pretty strong following.

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It does.

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It does.

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Around here.

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Yeah.

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And then in just talking with some people at ISSW that year, you know, it seemed like

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it would be a cool project to take on.

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And, and, you know, Doug Kraus started his podcast slide that was, you know, I think

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he did two seasons of that and that was like so good.

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I wish he would bring it back or at least I should get him on my podcast at some point.

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But, yeah, and it's cool to see kind of this space grow.

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And, and, you know, I think that the biggest way that I learn is from storytelling, from

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hearing other people's stories.

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And, and I can remember back to being a rookie ski patroller and just hanging out in the

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locker room after, you know, maybe a week of avalanche mitigation, just going hard

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up on the ridge and, and just hearing stories of veteran ski patrollers telling when, you

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know, their lessons learned over the years.

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And, and it was just so impactful to me for my career.

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And, and many of those stories are still with me today.

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And I think about them all the time in the winter.

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So trying to expand that out through the podcast has been a super fun venture and just getting

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to connect with so many people within our community, both in the States and in Canada

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and, and over in Europe as well.

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So, yeah, it's fun.

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And it's a, it's a shared, shared endeavor.

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I have some guest hosts.

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And so that's kind of where I'm hoping to lead the podcast these days is to get different

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perspectives and different voices, more diverse array of folks that are asking the questions

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of some of the leaders within our industry.

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So it's cool to, I've really enjoyed tuning into some of the all aspects avi podcasts

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as well.

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I think you guys are doing a great job.

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That's high praise coming for you, man.

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Thank you for that.

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Yeah, no, your pot is awesome.

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It's I got to be totally honest here.

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I'd actually didn't know it existed until you did it with Jeff.

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And then I went and listened to like six episodes.

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And it was nice.

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Sweet.

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But yeah, Jeff, let's, let's jump into some.

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I know you have some burning questions.

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I've got one for Caleb right off the bat.

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So I noticed on your podcast, you're real good about creating a welcoming place where

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people can open up and talk about the closest they've come to death with an avalanche on

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your podcast.

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And that you kind of hold that space.

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So it's not judgy.

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It's like, no, we've all made mistakes as professionals.

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And I think it's really helpful to normalize that so that instead of a culture of shame

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and blame, it's like, no, no, no, here's what everyone can learn from this.

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So what I want to know is after all these stories you've heard and then different perspectives,

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it's like that analogy of like the blind guy groping the elephant, a whole bunch of folks

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who are like describing different parts of the elephant.

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So you heard the elephant described from so many different perspectives.

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How has that changed how you manage risk in avalanche training?

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You know, over there, some perspectives that really resonated with you and you're like,

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ooh, that's changed the way I go about my teaching, my forecasting, my guiding.

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Yeah, I mean, I think there have been some trends lately where more experienced users

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are getting caught.

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Right.

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Like we're watching the demographic and this is kind of an anecdote.

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But you know, we're watching the demographic get a little bit older, a little bit more

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experienced.

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And so I think it kind of comes down to, I would sum that up simply with Andre Rocha's

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quote of the avalanche does not know that you're an expert or the avalanche doesn't

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care what you know.

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And so like, I think when, how it's affected, how listening to so many stories of near misses

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and close calls and accidents has affected me is just building wider margins into my

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day and understanding that I'm not, even though I live and breathe this stuff, I still have

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weaknesses.

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I also have strengths, but I am not immune to the fallacies of the human condition.

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And I know, I understand that when I'm standing at the top of a slope, if I don't have a well

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thought out plan for the day and I find myself somewhere that looks really enticing, I'm

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really going to want to ski it.

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The addiction can be real.

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Right.

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I think it's like real to talk about it as an addiction and being aware of like our fallacies

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of falling into those traps.

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So I think wider margins, I'm really impacted by people celebrating, turning around and being

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okay with that.

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And kind of, I've tried to bring that into my practice, into my guiding and recreational

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riding out there.

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So I think another theme that comes up a lot is just having a repeatable process, especially

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in the recreational user patch.

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Having a process that creating good habits in the back country takes work.

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And it's not something that is just given to you by taking a rec level one course.

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It takes practice and application and some discipline.

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So I think back to when I started getting into recreational back country skiing, I was

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concurrently a ski patroller and running avalanche mitigation routes and kind of created

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this somewhat of a false sense of security or maybe not security, but false sense of

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accountability with triggering avalanches in a semi controlled environment of the ski

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area.

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And then I started getting into more ski touring and I was like, wow, this is a totally different

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game venturing into a natural snowpack that's not mitigated.

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And maybe at this point we're not dealing with just surface instabilities that we're

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trying to mitigate at the ski area, aside from early season opening of terrain when you

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might be dealing with a deeper persistent week later or something.

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But that application of moving into a different context, I think is sometimes understated.

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And I know it was for my career.

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And my ventures into the back country was kind of like, there's the ability to miss

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apply context of what you're doing based on your experiences in a different context,

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if that makes sense.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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I do that all the time.

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I'm like, brand new sport.

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This is probably the same as skiing.

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Like I'm pretty good at skiing.

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I'll probably be pretty good at this sport.

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And then it's like 15 minutes into it.

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I'm like, oh no, this is a completely different thing, Dave.

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Go back to level zero.

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Right.

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Totally.

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Yeah.

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I think, you know, I'm reminded of something that one of my mentors Fred Aldridge said.

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I heliske guided with him in the rubies and fought some fire with him as well.

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And when I interviewed him for the podcast, he was, he talked about how the novice focuses

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on the basics and the masters focus on the basics.

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Right.

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And that kind of, in my mind, that kind of leads into kind of the Dunning Kruger effect.

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Right.

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And like, where is our level of confidence with our skills and our abilities and our

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knowledge and our uncertainties in the back country realm and, and trying to honestly

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assess that in yourself, I think is a really essential skill into keeping yourself safe.

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Like, what do I, what do I know?

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What do I not know?

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And what do I not know that I don't know?

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If that makes sense.

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The unknown unknowns.

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The Donald Rums, the Zen Kone Square, the unknown unknowns.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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I like that.

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I like the Mark Twain quote of, it ain't the things you don't know that get you.

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It's the things you know for sure that just ain't so.

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I was like, oh, interesting.

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That's the human factor trap.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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So we're, the gist of our podcast is to talk about how we do dangerous things the safest

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way possible.

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And how is that changed over time for you, because that's what you do in all the hats

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you wear, whether it's guiding, forecasting or teaching, you're helping people do risky

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things the safest way possible.

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How's your, your thinking and your approach changed over time?

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Well plus Jeff, he's also like, I mean, I watched you on the, I don't know, it was like

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that sled podcast from 2023.

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Oh yeah.

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Yeah.

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And you had some really good insight about the transition between or taking your skills

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from what you know about in the back country and then like applying them into this.

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I mean, essentially a brand new sport.

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And you know, like even though, yeah, like snow, you're well versed in know how to think

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about and how to approach avalanche problems.

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There's like a whole new thing when you got on a sled finally.

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Yeah.

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It's total, totally different applications.

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Really cool to like be back at the beginner stage, you know, I'm probably like a blue

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square sledder at this point, but like feeling the progression there and taking that application

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and putting it into just a whole different mode of travel, but in a familiar back country

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setting has been, I think, I don't think I even expected it to be as different as it

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has been, but there's been a lot of learning and growth.

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And I certainly make, I think I make more conservative decisions on my sled just because

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of my ability to maneuver the machine.

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Then you know, I feel quite a bit more nimble on my skis.

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But kind of going back to Jeff's original question, like, I think I honestly, I look

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back to starting my podcast.

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And I think, I don't think I knew this at the time, but I think subconsciously, like

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I was looking for the magic bullet that doesn't exist.

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And I had always been told that it didn't exist, right?

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But I saw all of these people out there seemingly doing it, like seemingly, and this is where

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social media, like don't even get me started on social media and the facade that creates

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of what people are doing in the back country.

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It's ridiculous.

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And I think it's super detrimental in some ways to our community.

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But you know, I think subconsciously, I was looking for this magic bullet and I'm like,

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oh, I'm going to talk to people like Jeff Banks.

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He's been doing this for a super long time.

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He's got to have the secret sauce, like the magic to it.

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And just to answer your same question, like how are we going to do these risky things

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in the safest way possible?

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And what I found out is there's no magic bullet.

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And it takes a lot of patience.

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And it takes saying no.

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It takes looking at yourself introspectively and identifying your strengths and weaknesses.

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And I think you're probably reaching for kind of like tangible things that I do to manage

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my risk.

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And that's all stuff that has been super vetted and is embedded in our avalanche education

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curriculums throughout the stage, like the repeatable process, like dialing in your tour

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planning, previewing the train before you enter the train, having options in your day

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so that, you know, the, I like to say, like the only certain thing out there is uncertainty.

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Like you're going to run into areas of uncertainty anytime you go into the back country.

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And so to have options within your day to retreat to safer terrain is super essential

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and to expect the unexpected.

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So those are some ways that like I feel like I've tried to implement some of these tools

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into my own recreational skiing or riding.

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And I, you know, it's sometimes it's easier to apply those things in a more operational

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setting because that's a little bit more embedded in the culture, you know, especially

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with AMGA guide training and, you know, operating off a run list, making our decisions about

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what we're going to ski when we're in a warm yurt or in a coffee shop and not making those

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decisions in the field is totally.

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I think what you're saying there for our audience is super important.

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I think a lot of folks think a mountain guide goes out and puts their finger to the air

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and says, oh, we're going to ski this.

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Let me dig a couple of pits along the way and we'll make that decision.

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And it's like, no, no, no, no, it's been gathering data throughout the whole season.

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And then the run list is made at home and we can't green light terrain in the field.

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We can only red light terrain and fall back to more conservative options when when we're

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confronted with more uncertainty in the field.

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And the observations we're gathering, they're not to ski steeper stuff.

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It's not like, oh, we'll get up there and dig a pit and ski the bowl if it looks good.

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It's like, no, no, no, we're checking to confirm our hypothesis.

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And if it's more uncertain than we thought, that's where those options to fall back are

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super clutch.

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I think that's super important.

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And maybe something that people don't quite understand about the avalanche industry.

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If you're a layperson just out skiing and I think a lot of folks will say, well, let's

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go to this zone and we'll figure it out.

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And I'm like, whoa, hold on.

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I don't think I want to go for that trip.

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Yeah.

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And you know, and I'm guilty of that at times, you know, what I've tried to turn that into

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is like, okay, well, let's ratchet back my goals or objectives for the day.

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If my uncertainty lies in the train and I haven't been able to get a good handle on the train

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through mapping software guidebooks, talking to people, getting beta, then, you know, like

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I'm just going to, I know that my uncertainty may lie within the snowpack and the train.

254
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:37,160
And I'm going to dial back and kind of turn that day into more of a recon tour, right?

255
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:42,600
Like maybe I do need to be in the field and see the train to really like understand some

256
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:48,840
of the nuances of certain terrain traps or convex features or unsupported slopes.

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But I'm going to frame my day as I'm just going to go stick to ridgelines and terrain

258
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less than 30 degrees and get a handle, become more familiar with this terrain before I maybe

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engage in more consequential aspects of that terrain.

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And that takes patience, you know?

261
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And I understand that's difficult if you just have maybe one or two days a week to get in

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the back country and there's this like pressure that maybe people put on themselves or they

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feel from social media to perform.

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And I think that that stress can become real and people are resistant to throw away a day,

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so to speak, air quotes there, throw away a day, doing the recon and really doing the

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research that they need to intimately know the terrain that they're going to be recreating

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in or operating in.

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Yeah, I think of that idea of, you know, going out and getting skunked.

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And when I was younger, that used to happen where you're like, oh, we've got this idealized

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plan.

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And then we're like, oh, conditions are super sketch and there's no backup plan.

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And now, you know, particularly last year, I think we talked about how all over the mountain

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West there was a freakishly high number of high danger days.

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And we were just pegged at considerable with a persistent week layer for much of the winter.

275
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So it's like, okay, doing more effort on tour planning.

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You know, every time I go out now, we're having a rewarding tour, even if it means exactly

277
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what you said, staying on ridge lines and keeping it under 30 degrees.

278
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And it's like zero stress, super fun.

279
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And we're getting lumps, collapses, remote triggers.

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But we're in this island in the sky where the only dangerous terrain is below us.

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And there's almost like this smug satisfaction of feeling like, man, conditions are really

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tricky.

283
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But by choosing gentle terrain, we're having so much fun and I'm not puckered.

284
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I'm not gripped and I'm not losing sleep the night before because we've already done

285
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our tour plan.

286
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And we know we're set up to have a great tour no matter what.

287
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:55,920
Yeah.

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And you feel better at the end of the day.

289
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Like you nailed it.

290
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Like not that you got away with something that you're like, like, I think we nailed it.

291
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But I'm not sure, you know.

292
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:12,880
Yeah, I like that feeling a lot better than the feeling of kind of guilt of like, ooh,

293
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,680
I think I got away with something.

294
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:15,680
Yeah.

295
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:23,880
And also just adjusting to be like, you can set expectations for any activity you go to,

296
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:24,880
right?

297
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:26,600
Whether it's skiing or climbing or biking or whatever.

298
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:31,640
But if like, you ratchet it back to just being specifically with skiing of like, hey, we're

299
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:38,000
going out skiing today and like for the sake of going out skiing today, then like you open

300
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,960
yourself up to having a great time, kind of whatever happens, you know, like it takes

301
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,080
that pressure way back.

302
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:49,760
It's only when you start being like, we're going to go to this zone, hit these lines.

303
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,520
Like that's when things are getting really muddy and gray on like the risk factor, at

304
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,680
least from what I've experienced.

305
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,840
Yeah, I totally agree, Dave.

306
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:04,280
I think like kind of leaving the expectations of the day at home is and just fostering a

307
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:09,600
cautious curiosity about what's going on and enjoying the time that you have out there

308
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:14,520
with those people, you know, that's the best way to approach it in my opinion.

309
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:19,680
It's like, well, you could be sitting at your desk or you could be out on skis.

310
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:20,680
Yeah.

311
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,520
Caleb, one thing that resonated when you said, hey, you know, I was hoping to find the magic

312
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:29,720
bullet and to talk and all these experts who have spent 10, 20, 30, 40 years in the industry.

313
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,960
Surely I'm going to stumble into the magic bullet.

314
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:42,080
And the closest bullet that I found is the big buffers to ward off the uncertainty.

315
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:48,000
And with having large buffers, I'm like, hey, everything we do, driving a car, getting

316
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,240
out of bed in the morning has residual risk.

317
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,600
And it's always going to be there.

318
00:20:52,600 --> 00:21:01,000
However, if I can make sure those safety buffers are quite robust between me and the anticipated

319
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:06,840
problems, that can allow for the wildcards to come up in the deck, Joker to rear its head

320
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,200
and be like, oh, we've got a big enough buffer.

321
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,840
It's not going to catch us or it's unlikely to catch us.

322
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:21,160
And it's brought the stress down so much that even though I'm not riding super steep lines

323
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:28,920
like I used to, that satisfaction of being like, I'm not scared, and I'm not going to

324
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:34,480
inadvertently get my clients or friends killed, that satisfaction goes way up.

325
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:43,640
And the whole experience becomes very different and really deeply satisfying of, okay, I've

326
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,960
recalibrated, I think.

327
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:51,360
And we're doing this in a sustainable manner that's really stress-free.

328
00:21:51,360 --> 00:21:56,160
And then when we do get those days where stability lines up, you're like, okay, these

329
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,480
are the days to go steeper.

330
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,840
And it's okay if there's less on the year of that.

331
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,480
It's setting us up for success and we're just not scared.

332
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:06,480
Yeah.

333
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:15,600
Yeah, Jeff, what do you think of as your areas of uncertainty when you head out on a ski tour?

334
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,200
Oh, man.

335
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,200
He's camera man.

336
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,320
He's dropping back into podcast hose role here.

337
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:22,320
That's right.

338
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:23,320
That's right.

339
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:32,640
Well, you know, from skiing a little bit around this area, it's unusual for us not to have

340
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,760
a persistent week layer of concern.

341
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,880
It's very unusual.

342
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:42,040
Occasionally, after we've been getting these massive 10 inches of suede, that's snow water

343
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,240
equivalent for the non-Avalanche geeks out there.

344
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,000
So that's 10 inches of water weight.

345
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,480
And then, you know, sometimes after that, when the snowpack has a chance to either avalanche

346
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:57,760
off or kind of consolidate into a two-meter snowpack, then we might get a window of low

347
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:58,760
danger.

348
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,880
We're like, oh, wow, this is incredibly rare mid-season.

349
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:05,320
But for the most time, most of the time we're out there, there is an area of concern.

350
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:10,640
And if you want to get away from that faceted layer or surface tour layer, it means you

351
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:15,920
got to go on the sunny side in Colorado so far south that we'll often have sun crust,

352
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,720
even if the sun's out for 10 minutes, get a zipper crust.

353
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,760
So you're often skiing the shady side where the PWL is.

354
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:28,200
And so just giving big buffers on that.

355
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,360
And after going through the data and being like, oh, OK, here's the rules.

356
00:23:32,360 --> 00:23:35,800
And, you know, we didn't do this on your show.

357
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:41,600
But, you know, basically the generalized simple write it down on an envelope or put it down

358
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,840
on your skis with a marker.

359
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:48,240
You know, the algorithm rules are really conservative that we're using for aspect

360
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:49,240
avi.

361
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,000
So if it's low danger, keep it under 40.

362
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,400
If it's moderate danger, keep it under 35.

363
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,720
So that's still black diamond terrain.

364
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:03,400
And if you scary moderate, which is what the pros always call moderate with a PWL, and

365
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,120
the public may not have heard of that term before, but we use it.

366
00:24:06,120 --> 00:24:07,680
We're like, hey, different rules.

367
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:12,120
Because that PWL kills about 95% of the victims in Colorado.

368
00:24:12,120 --> 00:24:14,720
So it's the best predictor of danger.

369
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:21,160
So if it's scary moderate, then it's keep it under 33 degrees and stay out of the run

370
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:22,160
out zones.

371
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,240
And I love being able to measure the run out zones now.

372
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:29,280
That's really something that makes me warm and fuzzy inside instead of guessing.

373
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,120
I hate guessing.

374
00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:36,440
And then if it's considerable danger, keeping it under 30 and out of the run out zones.

375
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:42,920
Those are just real simple rules to live by for a long, happy life in the back country.

376
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,840
And you know, people ask me, oh, but you must do it differently on your day off.

377
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,560
I'm like, no, I still don't want to die on my day off.

378
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,000
And I like to be really relaxed and stress free.

379
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,360
And you know, there are times where if you know those rules really well, there's four

380
00:24:57,360 --> 00:24:59,400
exceptions where you can push it.

381
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:05,920
But for me, that just makes life super simple and fun and gives us wide buffers.

382
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:10,000
And it's not to say that that's no risk, but it's really low risk.

383
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,920
And it's more in line with my risk tolerance now.

384
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:18,600
And also just being around doing this for three decades.

385
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:23,800
I've seen a lot of surprises where I was absolutely certain.

386
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:28,400
And then it turns out I was dead wrong and almost really dead.

387
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:33,400
And so that's given me such a healthy respect of just like put those buffers up, keep the

388
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,480
car on the road with those guardrails and life's really fun.

389
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:37,480
Yeah.

390
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,480
Yeah, I know.

391
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,680
I want to kind of ask you a little like a broader question.

392
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:48,960
Jeff, thank you for taking us on our detour through the AspectAvy app as usual.

393
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,720
The shameless product plug.

394
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:51,720
Yeah.

395
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:56,160
But I wanted to, I know Jeff talks about this a lot and we've talked about this with people

396
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,040
like Angela Haas and stuff like that.

397
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:04,080
Over, I mean, you've been in this for what, two decades?

398
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:05,080
Like 20 years?

399
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:06,080
Almost.

400
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,080
Yeah.

401
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,560
So like, you know, you're starting on ski patrol at Solitude.

402
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,200
I think I saw, you know, you've been guiding, you've been doing all this stuff.

403
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:20,240
Has there been like a general shift in the way people view risk that you've seen over

404
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:21,240
that time period?

405
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,520
And then have there been maybe like sort of bigger moments where like the whole thing

406
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,840
kind of shifted that you can think of?

407
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,520
I'm just curious to see what your thoughts on that are.

408
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,000
Yeah, that's a good question, Dave.

409
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:40,280
I think, you know, risk tolerance is such a personal thing to many people and like you

410
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:46,560
can break it down to some kind of science-y or heady terms.

411
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:56,680
But I think in general, we have seen a shift and I think that people are starting to step

412
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,200
it back, but they're not showcasing that.

413
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:05,320
And I hope I'm not stepping around your question too much, but like what really gets me jazzed

414
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:13,600
up is seeing Instagram posts or videos of professional skiers being really honest about

415
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:20,080
their process of engaging in consequential terrain and getting a behind the scenes look

416
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:25,640
into what goes into that and how often people are turning around and celebrating that.

417
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:33,560
So I think as a whole, our culture is starting to embrace that.

418
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:38,680
But I mean, let's be real, it's not as sexy as nailing the line, you know, like that does

419
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,440
not get the clicks, you know?

420
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:52,200
And so I don't know that I can like pinpoint one event or even a series of events that's

421
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:53,200
happened there.

422
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:59,520
I think generally just kind of the outreach and education movement that's happened and

423
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:06,000
the amount of resources that the community is putting into education collectively is

424
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:12,200
helping to create a shift, especially in the recreation side of backcountry riding.

425
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:19,120
But you know, I think for me personally, kind of like just dropping the ego a little bit,

426
00:28:19,120 --> 00:28:27,440
trying to approach entering the backcountry with humility and a humble attitude has served

427
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:28,440
me really well.

428
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:33,480
And it's not something that I claim to have perfected yet, but it's something that I work

429
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:39,360
on every time that I go out there and allow me the ability, it allows me the ability to

430
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:45,240
be surprised through proper terrain margins and proper planning.

431
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:52,000
And yeah, I guess just kind of understanding that I'm not always going to have understanding

432
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:58,360
and accepting that I might not always have the whole picture helps to ratchet it back

433
00:28:58,360 --> 00:28:59,360
for me.

434
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,720
I don't know if that answers your question, Dave.

435
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:03,720
Totally.

436
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:08,200
I just find it fascinating people, you know, like my background is slope style and half

437
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:13,360
pipe skiing and you know, we would go in the backcountry, it was like building booters.

438
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:22,440
And we had zero self-awareness of what we were doing, you know, like just building jumps

439
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:26,040
or other, there was a sweet steep landing kind of thing, not really being very aware

440
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,920
of the broader train we were in.

441
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:35,440
And so for me now like hanging out with Jeff and talking to all these people who are undeniably

442
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:42,200
the like the OGs of this industry, like it's like what anyone kind of like I've just started

443
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:47,740
realizing how much I didn't know, you know, and I just find it really interesting hearing

444
00:29:47,740 --> 00:29:52,920
from people who've been in it for a long time about kind of just the way it's changed over

445
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:53,920
the years.

446
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,520
You know, we were talking to Angel about like client expectations.

447
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:02,720
You know, 20 years ago people like wanted that crazy adrenaline experience and she's

448
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,440
like now people are like, yeah, we want to go to this beautiful place and do this big

449
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:07,920
thing that we're proud of.

450
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,760
But you know, like we all want to make it back to the boat, you know, kind of thing.

451
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:15,200
So I think I think your answer was great.

452
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,560
There wasn't a wrong writer or a wrong answer to that.

453
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:23,440
It makes me think a little bit about like and reflect on some of my guiding more specifically

454
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:28,840
heli ski guiding of my perception of my guests expectations.

455
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:29,840
Right.

456
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:36,840
Yeah, like I will go into a day thinking that these people want to ski super steep lines

457
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:44,200
and early terrain and and then come to find out there's just like totally happy just being

458
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:48,960
out in the middle of the Chugach with nobody around and just being in this beautiful place

459
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:56,640
like skiing appropriately matched terrain for the conditions, you know, and that's and

460
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:02,800
it's gotten me in trouble before or came very close to getting me in trouble of like mismatching

461
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,720
my perception of other people's expectations.

462
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:12,040
So that's that's a red flag for me when I start projecting what I think other people

463
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,080
are are expecting.

464
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,480
Man, that's how do you, you know, that seems like something to be hashed out.

465
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,640
Like how, you know, is that just like the vibe you're getting when you're talking to

466
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,840
people or what what leads to that?

467
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:31,280
Oh, I mean, yeah, it is the vibe that I'm getting when I first meet them.

468
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:36,040
It's just watching them on their first run, kind of watching their body language when

469
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:37,560
they're talking to their buddies.

470
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:44,560
If I think that I'm serving up something that's pretty mellow, you know, and that's a that's

471
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:50,040
a terrain progression is a great tool for getting to know your clients and getting to

472
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:56,920
know what's going on in the snow and kind of starting with some some slope of low or

473
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:04,240
no consequence and getting more questions to your answers or answers to your questions

474
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:09,280
and then moving into maybe some steeper terrain if if things are lining up.

475
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:17,360
But yeah, I mean, it brings about like this approach to guiding that is just more honest

476
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:18,360
and open.

477
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:24,120
And I'm, you know, I get a little bit vulnerable and I ask the people what what they want to

478
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:29,960
do, you know, I, you know, we're somewhat of a team out there, even in a guiding scenario.

479
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:35,440
And that's how I approach guiding is I like, I, you know, if I'm out there with four people,

480
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:40,520
four to one guiding, that's like, I'm not very good at math, but I think it's 10 eyes

481
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,040
out there instead of just my two eyes, right?

482
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:51,120
And I try and utilize my my guests to let me know how they're feeling and and and also

483
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:55,080
what they're seeing out there because sometimes I miss things.

484
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,360
It's hard to imagine, but I'm sure you can relate.

485
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,880
Well, that's that's that's unique compared to, you know, I've heard Jeff's Jeff's experience

486
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,440
with tour planning and stuff for clients, but I think Jeff, you're much more on the

487
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:11,400
touring kind of side where it's, you know, a bit more of like, we're going to go to a

488
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:16,360
zone for the day, but with Helle, you have so many more runs and so much more accessibility,

489
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:17,360
like that.

490
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,720
I didn't really think about that until just now.

491
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:28,600
I would echo Caleb's reflection of self-imposed pressure of I'm supposed to know exactly where

492
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,600
the line is and take the guests right up to the line.

493
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,240
That's how I felt at the early part of my career.

494
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,320
And then it was like, this is ridiculous.

495
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,400
Like, you know, nobody knows exactly where the line is.

496
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,200
So we need to give a buffer.

497
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:46,640
And I really like a collaborative approach of, hey team, here's where I think we're

498
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:51,240
going to have good and reasonably safe riding today.

499
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,960
What is your preference?

500
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:59,440
And then find out and I when you were just talking about how you gauge the the clients,

501
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,920
it's always tricky because some of them may not have skied that year or in a couple years.

502
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:05,520
And this is their big trip.

503
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:10,240
And you know, their memory of what they used to be able to do doesn't match up with reality.

504
00:34:10,240 --> 00:34:13,760
And then all of a sudden they've got a pack on and it's really deep powder.

505
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:18,080
It's really tricky to gauge on your first day with the client or particularly the first

506
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:19,080
run.

507
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:24,440
You want to ease into it and then have a lot of different options so you can pivot quickly

508
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:29,280
within your safety guardrails of, okay, this is where we're going to find.

509
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:35,080
Reasonably good snow and reasonably safe snow that's appropriate for the clients and what's

510
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,960
going to give them good expectations.

511
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,840
But I really like an inclusive process where they're giving me feedback, try to give as

512
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,080
much information as you can before.

513
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,080
And then also setting the expectations of, hey, it's considerable with the PWL.

514
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,760
We are not going into avalanche training today.

515
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,600
I just want to get that out front.

516
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,040
That's just how it is right now.

517
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:53,040
Yeah.

518
00:34:53,040 --> 00:35:01,040
I love the over cautious approach to setting those expectations.

519
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,960
And I think you're spot on anytime there's a persistent week later.

520
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,440
It's like, okay, heads up, you guys.

521
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:11,760
We got uncertainty in the snow pack and some potentially touchy conditions.

522
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:12,760
Yeah.

523
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,360
Set the bar low for their expectations.

524
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:21,800
And then I almost always find that we exceed those expectations and people end up having

525
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:23,920
a great day.

526
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,420
So yeah.

527
00:35:25,420 --> 00:35:31,680
Well people are always going to pound their chest and talk a big game, but it's so impossible

528
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:37,640
if you've just ripped a whole face, even if it's not the scariest cool art ever.

529
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:44,200
If it's a chill, wide open snow field, but everyone just got to do unlimited turns, you

530
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:50,520
would have to be the most depressed person on earth to not have a great time doing it.

531
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,480
Yeah, don't tell me that's not fun.

532
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,760
Yeah, come on, man.

533
00:35:54,760 --> 00:36:00,360
Like the reality is if we got dropped off on top of stuff that you see in like TGR or

534
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:05,640
matchstick or something, like all of us, myself included, would shit their pants.

535
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,760
We'd be like, hell you back, hell you back.

536
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:10,760
We're out of here.

537
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:11,760
Yeah.

538
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:12,760
Yeah.

539
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:19,040
You know, to echo, to pile on on that, if you look at the stats from Switzerland, I think

540
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:28,680
they've got something like 86% of avalanches for the fatalities are 35 degrees and over.

541
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:36,720
And you can have a lot of fun skiing a black diamond slope that's 30, 32, 33.

542
00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:42,520
And skiing powder on a black diamond slope is a lot of fun and have a lot less stress.

543
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:47,400
Like if that was like one rule to live by, that's a pretty good one of, hey, if you've

544
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:53,040
got uncertainty, man, if you keep it under 35, you screen out a lot of your risk and

545
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:58,040
you can still have really good black diamond terrain or, you know, and then if you start

546
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:02,760
being like, oh, well, you know, let's, if we got a PWL and it's considerable, hey, let's

547
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,760
do a steep blue run today, skiing powder and beautiful setting with your friends.

548
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,560
You're like, man, that was a great day.

549
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:10,640
Yeah.

550
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:17,640
I think that's where kind of like aspect abbey is a great tool for people to utilize to kind

551
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:26,760
of bring about appropriate ski tours for the given conditions for that day, you know, and

552
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:28,320
I'll be, I'll be upfront.

553
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:35,440
Like I'm pretty skeptical of new technology that claims to keep us safe in the back country

554
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:40,080
because ultimately it's up to us, right?

555
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:45,400
And I think tools like aspect abbey help us stay in the guard rail, guard rails within

556
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,640
the guard rails.

557
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:54,240
Tools like utilizing a run list, even in a recreational setting help us do that as well.

558
00:37:54,240 --> 00:37:59,600
But you know, ultimately every accident is a series of decisions and you kind of have

559
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:07,080
to be able to step back and gain bigger perspective throughout your day of how many holes in the

560
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,200
Swiss cheese are lining up, right?

561
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:10,040
Yeah.

562
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:16,760
And have like a rule of three, you know, like if, and it could be super outside factors

563
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:23,560
like background things in my life that are just limiting my, my ability to stay in the

564
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:28,240
present moment, you know, just kind of background noise in your life that might not be on your

565
00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:29,240
A games.

566
00:38:29,240 --> 00:38:34,960
So like if I, if I forget an essential item for my pack, that's kind of like a, that's

567
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,240
like a check.

568
00:38:36,240 --> 00:38:40,600
That's like one strike for me and, and that kind of sets the tone for the day.

569
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:44,920
And then if I'm, you know, having trouble communicating with my partners, like we're

570
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:50,160
just not seeming to be on the same page, even like time trusted partners, you know, sometimes

571
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,400
it's just like the sauce isn't there for the day.

572
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:59,480
And that might be another, you know, strike and then getting a bunch of red flags out there,

573
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:06,200
cracking, collapsing, recent loading from wind or snow, you know, that might be another

574
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:12,600
one and, and kind of like trying to keep track of those, those strikes against, against the

575
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:17,960
day and then being really honest with that and, and taking a step back in my training

576
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:24,760
choices, given maybe those three strikes, I've kind of, I'd like to kind of like come

577
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:29,600
up with a list of kind of like these watch out situations.

578
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:34,920
I think it's termed personal disaster flags by some others, but yeah.

579
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:35,920
Yeah.

580
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:36,920
I heard that.

581
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:37,920
That's great.

582
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:43,600
To reflect back on you, you started with, you're like, Hey, if there's three strikes,

583
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,240
I'm going to scale way back.

584
00:39:45,240 --> 00:39:49,920
That started with self assessment and then team assessment.

585
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,040
And the very last thing you talked about was snow assessment.

586
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:54,040
That's fascinating.

587
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:55,040
Right.

588
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:56,040
Yeah.

589
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,040
That's a very mental approach.

590
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:58,040
Yeah.

591
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:02,920
We're all humans and, and you look at any of these accidents and there's like numerous

592
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,520
human, human factors involved, right?

593
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:13,280
And ultimately that's the, maybe the hardest thing to control is ourselves, but it's, it's

594
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,080
the thing that we have the most control over.

595
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:16,080
Yeah.

596
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:21,400
It's pretty rare that it's a low danger day and we're doing everything reasonably conservative

597
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,120
and we get smoked, right?

598
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:27,960
It's like, what's the, the famous stats, like 90% of avalanche fatalities can be attributed

599
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:32,880
to human factors where we knew it was dangerous and somehow justified going into that.

600
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:38,840
And there, and, you know, McCammon's classic facets is, is a great acronym for helping

601
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:45,600
people remember that where you've got familiarity, acceptance, commitment, expert, Halo.

602
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:50,560
And then you've got, I think tracks is social proof.

603
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:54,960
And then the last one scarcity where you flip those last two letters, you know, those are

604
00:40:54,960 --> 00:41:00,000
the classic Danny Conneman, Amos Tversky, human factor traps applied in an avalanche

605
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,760
context and repurposed and the really tricky part.

606
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:05,800
And I think this will be the next area.

607
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:13,120
I mean, this is all behavioral economics theory is how to pre-diagnose and treat that

608
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:18,960
because we're really good at identifying the causes of the disease, but not so much at

609
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:20,760
treating it right now.

610
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:21,760
That's pretty tough.

611
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:22,760
I don't know.

612
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,520
You got any things that you've used to, to help kind of treat those, whether it's in

613
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:32,360
the field or before you leave the house in your planning process?

614
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:37,800
One thing that I've come across lately is kind of like communication styles with your

615
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:38,800
partners.

616
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:44,200
And this is a bit of a broader topic that you riff on in terms of like choosing your partners

617
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:45,200
wisely.

618
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:50,600
And, you know, some of my best friends, like I can't ski with them because we just either

619
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:57,440
we egg each other on too much or we just have different communication styles.

620
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:06,080
And so I think like it's really important to pick your partners wisely and really be

621
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,200
honest about like if you're a good match or not.

622
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,080
And there's uncertainty in your group.

623
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:18,240
And if you have that uncertainty, then that's another flag to kind of listen to to scale

624
00:42:18,240 --> 00:42:21,760
back your terrain selection.

625
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:29,440
But I think, yeah, I've seen this trend of just kind of like a lot of social skiing

626
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:37,320
where these groups get really big and communication just becomes really hindered within a group

627
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,520
of, you know, more than three or four people.

628
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:44,320
And it can be really hard to make consequential decisions.

629
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,800
But I got a little off topic there.

630
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:53,320
I think one tool that I've been trying to implement is like discussing with my partners

631
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,200
will want and won't.

632
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,480
So like I want to do this.

633
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,640
I will do this or I won't do this.

634
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:05,400
And just being really honest in your tour planning phase before you even hit the skin

635
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:09,400
track of like, nope, this is off off the table.

636
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,240
And that's essentially a run list.

637
00:43:11,240 --> 00:43:17,080
But then kind of checking back in and kind of like will want won't like, how are you

638
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:18,080
feeling about this?

639
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:22,080
No, Dave Dave Dave's like, no, I won't ski this.

640
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,920
No, and we all need to respect that.

641
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,800
And Jeff, you might be like, well, I will ski this.

642
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:34,560
But Caleb's like, I want to ski this and kind of questioning our motivations around that.

643
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:43,480
I think can be really good reflection on the decisions that you're about to make and taking

644
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,400
giving that the time, right?

645
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:46,720
Like building time.

646
00:43:46,720 --> 00:43:48,440
We talk about terrain margins all the time.

647
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,640
But like, what about time margins?

648
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:55,840
You know, like we're gonna be crammed so much shit into our lives these days that like

649
00:43:55,840 --> 00:44:01,240
the last thing that we want to do is take, you know, 45 minutes to plan a tour at the

650
00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:02,240
beginning of the day.

651
00:44:02,240 --> 00:44:04,960
All of a sudden we're like one o'clock or something.

652
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,720
Nothing good happens after 10 in the mountains, right?

653
00:44:07,720 --> 00:44:13,240
Like, like you kind of like build in these time buffers or if you're out with Jeff, I've

654
00:44:13,240 --> 00:44:20,240
heard that you're, you know, definitely pack some extra batteries for your headlamp.

655
00:44:20,240 --> 00:44:24,000
So many times, Jeff's like, it's gonna be two hours and like five hours later, we're

656
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,720
like on our second peak.

657
00:44:27,720 --> 00:44:29,840
You can't he's undeniably stoked.

658
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,280
He's good at talking to stuff because he's pumped, but then you're like, yeah, I didn't

659
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:34,280
bring food for this.

660
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,720
It's good that it's consistent so that all my friends know.

661
00:44:37,720 --> 00:44:38,720
Right.

662
00:44:38,720 --> 00:44:44,440
Jeff, we're gonna have to check you here with your enthusiasm because, you know, your concept

663
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:50,400
of time is more in sync with maybe like Polynesian concept of like space and time.

664
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:55,040
Apparently, like some Polynesian cultures, the greeting isn't, hey, how's it going?

665
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,160
It's where have you come from?

666
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:01,840
It's very directional oriented and it's a navigation culture and that really resonates

667
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,680
with me, but like, I don't even own a watch.

668
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:06,960
Like that's kind of a telltale sign right there.

669
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,760
Yeah, but Jeff, you have one on your phone, dude.

670
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:09,760
Come on.

671
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:10,760
Don't even be on that high horse.

672
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:15,960
Like Caleb, wait, I want to, so I want to jump into something a little more macro because

673
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,480
I think you have another cool insights on this probably.

674
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:23,920
Um, you know, obviously you kind of perfectly segued us actually.

675
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:31,120
Uh, you know, Jeff and I have an opinion about where this industry is headed as far as, uh,

676
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:35,040
managing, you know, risk in the back country and that kind of stuff.

677
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:41,520
Like where are there trends that you've been seeing growing in like the forecasting world?

678
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:47,080
Um, like that you think are going to catch on or maybe things that are on the horizon.

679
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:51,640
I feel like you've probably been privy to some cool conversations in this, uh, in this

680
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,240
arena that maybe you could offer us a little insight on.

681
00:45:55,240 --> 00:45:59,640
Like, where's the industry headed for, yeah, like how are we really forecasting in five

682
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:00,640
years?

683
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:01,800
Like what, what's this look like?

684
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:02,800
What's this whole thing?

685
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:04,800
What's this whole thing?

686
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:11,880
I think, uh, one of the super pivotal moments was the release of the conceptual model of

687
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:18,520
model of avalanche hazard from Grant Statham and others that kind of creates a roadmap

688
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:23,560
to communicating hazard to the public, right, or within operations.

689
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:30,760
So, um, identifying what the problem is, where the problem is, the likelihood, sensitivity,

690
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:36,920
all leading into, okay, this is going to create, um, where our hazard level is for the day.

691
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:43,920
So much more of a roadmap than, than what it, I mean, not that it wasn't informed before,

692
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:49,120
but everybody is kind of trying to read off the same sheet of music, no matter where you're

693
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,120
at.

694
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:58,080
Um, and, and so a little bit more of a formulaic, um, approach to avalanche forecasting.

695
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:04,800
I think one thing that's pretty interesting and, and I'm hoping to get Pascal Haigli on

696
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:12,960
my podcast to talk about is, is forecaster uncertainty and how does the public, um, react

697
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:19,840
to a forecast that I put out where I say I have really low certainty in my forecast.

698
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,480
Because sometimes that's the case.

699
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:28,640
And in the past, you know, we kind of try to write that in, in a forecast discussion,

700
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:33,720
like look, this, this persistent week layer is pretty sporadic out here.

701
00:47:33,720 --> 00:47:38,400
This is where we think it is, but you know, we don't have that much data on it and, and

702
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:39,400
we need more.

703
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:45,400
So our uncertainty is pretty high for this forecast and, and how the public will react

704
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:46,400
to that.

705
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:51,320
Um, you know, pulling the veil back a bit, you know, of, of like, yeah, we don't know

706
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:55,120
everything and we're not going to know everything.

707
00:47:55,120 --> 00:48:02,160
Um, and, and it all comes back to like, there's only one way to use that uncertainty and that's

708
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:06,560
to buffer your terrain, bigger margins.

709
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:11,520
I wonder if, um, you know, can I just like add on that really quick?

710
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:17,360
Some of you, like you talk about, um, you know, like being a forecaster, it's super

711
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:18,360
hard.

712
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:23,560
Like you have a huge zone that you're basically like taking the temperature of and like you,

713
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:28,480
you can't know what every face is like, whatever aspects like, like there's no physically no

714
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:29,800
way for that to happen.

715
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:34,400
And something I, I've thought about a bit, like kind of moving into the future, you know,

716
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:38,360
like the new iPhones, you can text via satellite, you know, like all this kind of stuff.

717
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:42,280
I wonder if we'll start seeing a bit of a more decentralized approach, you know, where

718
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,840
the forecast is there.

719
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:50,280
And then throughout the day, you're getting these like actual live updates with geo data,

720
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:54,320
like where people are being sent in, like as it's happening, because they don't have

721
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,000
to wait to report it.

722
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:59,000
Maybe when they get back to the parking lot or whatever.

723
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:05,320
And you know, like maybe over time having, you know, like having data from years of people

724
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:09,640
reporting things on their phone, you know, like that'll give you guys a better idea of

725
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,960
like, Oh, you know, like this area tends to be a little trickier.

726
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:14,480
This area tends to be pretty reliable.

727
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:19,840
You know, like I'm curious to see if you think, you know, like maybe that will play into how

728
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,680
the forecast looks in the future and like helping people navigate.

729
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:24,680
Yeah.

730
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:26,160
I think it will.

731
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,840
And I think it has, you know, I think just the.

732
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:35,200
There's been an increase in public observations at all Avalanche centers, you know, in the

733
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:41,800
last five to 10 years, like people are people are starting to understand that they can help

734
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:44,040
inform the forecast.

735
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:49,720
And especially, you know, like where I have a forecast, we have four different zones.

736
00:49:49,720 --> 00:49:58,280
And you know, two of them have semi popular, you know, backcountry skiing areas.

737
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:05,000
And two of them are more snow machine based, but we operate in like a super data sparse

738
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,600
environment for our forecast center.

739
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:13,560
And so we totally rely on these public observations.

740
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:20,320
And I agree that like in the future, if there's more direct ways for that to happen in real

741
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:26,360
time, and I like how you guys have incorporated that into aspect Abby for your own, you know,

742
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:33,480
like for me personally, to be able to track the red flags that I'm seeing on my ski tour

743
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:35,560
on aspect Abby is super helpful.

744
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:43,160
And then that kind of like trims some of the available terrain based on those red flags.

745
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:49,480
And in the same way, I think, I think in people are doing it on social media, you know, tagging

746
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:54,600
Utah Avalanche center or whatever when they're out there and they're videoing, when loading

747
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:58,160
that's happening or cracking or collapsing, stuff like that.

748
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:04,440
So I think the bigger centers that have a bit more of a population base, I think that's

749
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:09,360
ongoing and super helpful to inform the forecast.

750
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:18,920
Yeah, I think another area that is maybe going to we're going to see a lot of advent is both

751
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:25,840
flexible forecast zones, which Colorado is using now and Avalanche Canada.

752
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:32,200
And so instead of trying to like conform to for Avalanche problems to fit into a certain

753
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:40,640
box, kind of like like it just doesn't depend on geographic lines necessarily.

754
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:46,360
Of course, certain loading patterns and stuff do have very much trained influence.

755
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:53,120
But you know, the idea of flexible zones, I think is going to catch on and then more

756
00:51:53,120 --> 00:52:00,640
modeling, you know, like I have been resistant to AI and kind of like I think that the computers

757
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:03,840
are going to win eventually beat us.

758
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,480
It would seem that way.

759
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:08,840
But you know, like the.

760
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,040
It can keep us alive.

761
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:12,040
Right.

762
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:13,040
Or sky.

763
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:14,040
Totally.

764
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:22,360
We're going to we're going to see admins in that with with snowpack modeling and and some

765
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:26,840
AI influence, I think, into our Avalanche forecast in the future.

766
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,400
I'm not sure what it looks like because again, I kind of resist it.

767
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,320
But that's right.

768
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:35,760
Riff off your question.

769
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:41,480
You know, I think a real simple way is my God, the push notifications, like everything

770
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:46,080
I turn them off on my phone, I'm like, I just want to know if somebody's calling me.

771
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:47,080
That's it.

772
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:48,720
Don't intrude on my mental space.

773
00:52:48,720 --> 00:52:55,120
However, I would be more than happy to get a push notification from my local AV center

774
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:59,280
or from aspect to AV that said, hey, somebody just had a skier triggered Avalanche.

775
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,600
Here's the elevation aspect, maybe even a photo.

776
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:06,160
And here's the observer and we're.

777
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:07,160
GDS location.

778
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:13,640
Yeah, to considerable, it's not moderate, you know, new shit has come to light to quote

779
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:14,720
the big Lebowski.

780
00:53:14,720 --> 00:53:20,080
You know, that kind of happened two seasons ago, in Crested Butte in real time.

781
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:24,360
It was the first warm up of the year in April.

782
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:29,160
And there's an indicator slope right across from the school in town and it went D3 to

783
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,000
the ground.

784
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:35,760
And it was like, oh, you know, wet slabs are notoriously difficult to get the timing right

785
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:36,760
on.

786
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,360
And it happened two days before the forecast center thought it was going to go.

787
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,240
And they updated the forecast in real time.

788
00:53:43,240 --> 00:53:49,560
But unless you saw that Avalanche and thought, oh, let's go see what the Abby Center is saying,

789
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:51,480
you know, you weren't getting a push notification.

790
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:56,600
And I think that could be a really interesting way to harness technology in a very beneficial

791
00:53:56,600 --> 00:54:01,680
way where, you know, a lot of us are touring outside of cell range, but that cell range

792
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:05,960
is getting cell coverage is getting better and better every year.

793
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:10,920
And if you bump up above tree line, we often have enough to get a text.

794
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:15,840
And then like what you were saying, Dave, with the new satellite capabilities coming

795
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:20,480
with the iPhone, new generations, or if you're hooked up through your garment in reach, you

796
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:22,480
can get it no matter what.

797
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:23,480
Yeah.

798
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:24,480
Yeah.

799
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,280
Is that something that's on the radar for aspect, Abby?

800
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:31,880
Like I know that you can identify red flags while you're in the field and that's just like

801
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:36,800
kind of influences the shading on my phone.

802
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:40,640
But like, what if I'm out there and you guys are out there?

803
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:41,960
And I noticed a red flag.

804
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,400
Is that something that's coming down the line for aspect, Abby?

805
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:49,600
Like you could get a push notification that I'm seeing signs of instability.

806
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:50,840
Yeah, is it?

807
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:51,840
Yeah, it is.

808
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:52,840
Yeah, it is.

809
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:56,000
I can't give you a date of when it's going to come in.

810
00:54:56,000 --> 00:55:01,840
It's all dependent on investment and how many dev team members we can, you know, change

811
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:04,440
of their desks and crank away on code.

812
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:10,240
But we've gotten that idea from a lot of folks like Waze or Google Maps asks for your input

813
00:55:10,240 --> 00:55:11,240
to update.

814
00:55:11,240 --> 00:55:12,240
Is there a speed trap here?

815
00:55:12,240 --> 00:55:14,360
Is there an accident here?

816
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:18,640
Is that car moved off the side of the road that was blocking, blowing in traffic?

817
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,240
And the same idea.

818
00:55:20,240 --> 00:55:26,800
And I love that the community is so engaged with this because so much of this stuff is

819
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:31,000
like, you know, I've got some ideas of what I think should be the ideal app.

820
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:36,960
But when you get information from hundreds of people at this point and input and catalog

821
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:42,280
all that on a digital sticky note board, you're like, oh my God, the ideas here are endless.

822
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:46,360
And so, you know, real simple, here's a couple ideas.

823
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:50,240
Let's say your Bluetooth thing through your Garmin in reach so you can send a text no

824
00:55:50,240 --> 00:55:53,440
matter where you could send your observation.

825
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:56,560
Hey, we just skier triggered a D2.

826
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:58,200
Here's the aspect elevation.

827
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:00,200
Here's a photo.

828
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,800
You know, here's the run out, blah, blah, blah, all the pertinent information that goes

829
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:05,840
to the Avi Center immediately.

830
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:09,000
So then they can update anything they need on their end.

831
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:14,960
And then if you allow push notifications, you could see, oh, shit, this is coming from

832
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:15,960
Caleb Merrill.

833
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:19,520
You're like, oh, this guy's not he's a guide.

834
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:20,520
He's an educator.

835
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,520
He's a forecaster, former ski patroller.

836
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,720
Okay, I might put more stock into that.

837
00:56:25,720 --> 00:56:30,280
Or you might say, oh, that's because Caleb's up in the alpine, but we're down deep in the

838
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,800
forest where it's a different snowpack and we're not exposed to the wind loading that

839
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:35,040
he's seeing.

840
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:38,120
And then you could choose how you want to use it.

841
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:43,760
But I think that kind of crowdsourcing of Intel, that the Avi Centers are constantly

842
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:48,400
being like, hey, we need your data, please, even if you didn't see anything, let us know

843
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:50,920
at the end of your tour.

844
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:54,200
Let's cut the time lag on that and get it in real time.

845
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:58,320
I love that idea of us all pooling information.

846
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:02,000
And even if you're a layperson, you know, the way they verify the forecast, they're obvious

847
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:06,200
clues that my mom would be like, oh, yeah, we just got a collapse.

848
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:07,920
Or yeah, we're seeing rapid warming.

849
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,800
Those are really easy bits of information to share with a push of a button that would

850
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:12,800
take five seconds.

851
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:15,440
I'd really like the idea of that.

852
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:21,760
I think we could really increase the accuracy of the forecast and of how we manage risk

853
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:22,760
in real time.

854
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:27,600
Well, Jeff, that's something you guys wanted to have in there too, right?

855
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:32,440
Whereas like, just have a verify the forecast pop up in the middle of your tour, no matter

856
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:36,320
what, just to kind of remind people to like, hey, check in.

857
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:37,320
Yeah.

858
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:41,880
Like right now you got to think to verify the forecast, which let's be honest, a lot of

859
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:46,320
times, like if Kayla makes it down here, we're going to be having great conversation and

860
00:57:46,320 --> 00:57:49,320
psych to show them some beautiful mountain terrain.

861
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:53,320
And we might very well forget to verify the forecast even as professionals.

862
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:57,280
And I certainly noticed with lay people or when you teach an avi course, you know, the

863
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:02,400
cognitive load of just being on a tour is so high that there's not a lot of extra bandwidth

864
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:06,200
to be like, oh, yeah, wait, all those checklists, I need to go through them.

865
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:12,920
So that's coming on the roadmap is there'll be auto prompts to be like, oh, you've been

866
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:13,920
going for 30 minutes.

867
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:15,800
It's time to verify the forecast.

868
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:17,280
What do you see in out there?

869
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:25,000
So that I think it's a great critique that people have of, hey, phones are really distracting

870
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:26,880
in the back country.

871
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:28,200
But there's a flip side of that.

872
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:34,720
The sword has two edges of how can we use the phone to engage people with their environment

873
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:39,240
and make the critical observations that normally they're not going to remember to do?

874
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:40,520
Yeah, I really like that.

875
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:45,280
And I like how you touched on submitting observations of pertinent negatives too.

876
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:50,920
So like if, you know, I think a really good skill for anybody to develop is get in the

877
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:54,200
habit of debriefing your day.

878
00:58:54,200 --> 00:59:00,160
And part of debriefing your day should be submitting an observation and it aids you

879
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:04,280
in being able to synthesize what you saw.

880
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:10,720
And I think you ask anybody who submits regular observations to their avalanche center, they

881
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:15,520
probably have a really good handle on what's going on in the snowpack, like if every tour

882
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:22,000
or every other tour they're submitting observations, it's just going to give you a better idea

883
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:28,120
of if the forecast has been verified or if you can verify the forecast and other questions

884
00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:33,160
that you're looking to answer in your subsequent tours, right?

885
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:38,520
So even if you're not seeing signs of instability, you know, and I think there's a resistance

886
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:43,000
to people submitting observations because they don't want to give up their secret stash

887
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,000
or this or that.

888
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:51,600
And you know, you don't have to get super specific, just an aspect elevation, general

889
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:54,440
location within the range is super helpful.

890
00:59:54,440 --> 01:00:01,120
Yeah, helps me a lot to see any observation, especially with pictures when I'm writing

891
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:02,120
a forecast.

892
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:03,120
Yeah.

893
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:08,760
Do you have a wish list for the three different jobs that you do?

894
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:14,000
Like do you have your blue sky vision, your like dream tool that you'd love to have for

895
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:16,240
avalanche forecasting?

896
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:21,120
One for students you're teaching and one for when you're guiding or, you know, that have

897
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:22,640
your colleagues have?

898
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:27,320
That's a good question, Jeff.

899
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:33,520
I think with my forecasting, I just reach for more information and that you got to be

900
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:37,560
careful what you ask for because, you know, you get to a point where you're getting too

901
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:42,080
much information and my little brain just can't process all of it.

902
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:47,600
But, you know, my wish is just more snow tell sites, right?

903
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:53,520
Whereas how much snow has landed and where is it?

904
01:00:53,520 --> 01:01:00,880
And again, with wind as well, vanamometers, we operate in a pretty data starved environment.

905
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:08,680
And actually, I got the idea from Zach Guy to put up little game cameras, so like little

906
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:14,280
Wi-Fi game or cellular data game cameras with a snow stake.

907
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:20,960
And it's just kind of like a low tech approach to being able to have a little remote snow

908
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:21,960
tell site.

909
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:23,960
Oh, yeah.

910
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:30,080
I've been kind of geeking out on that and getting those around the range where I forecast.

911
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:35,200
I think for what was your other question, for guiding tools?

912
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:39,480
Yeah, like just for all the different hats you wear, like what would be, you know, like

913
01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:47,080
a cool tool or new approach or I don't know, you know, just blue sky vision of like, if

914
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:49,760
you could design something, what would you want as a forecaster?

915
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:54,960
So you're saying, hey, more data, we're in a data starved forecast zone and the game

916
01:01:54,960 --> 01:02:00,000
cameras are like instant snow tell sites that are a couple hundred bucks that we can do.

917
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:03,360
What would you want for guiding and what would you want maybe for your students that you're

918
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:04,360
teaching?

919
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:11,800
Yeah, I think for guiding, you know, honestly, it's the, we already have it.

920
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:17,640
It's the run list keeps me, keeps me on the tracks, you know, like, and really utilizing

921
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,960
that to its fullest extent.

922
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:25,880
And you know, and there are some workarounds for the run list, you know, I've worked for

923
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:31,160
operations that have yellow and, you know, it's not just green or red, but yellow has

924
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:38,880
a qualifier of like this run is closed unless the corn has failed or unless we saw, you

925
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:46,760
know, a D2 avalanche, if it's already avalanche or something like that, or guide consensus

926
01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:53,560
in the field, you know, after numerous relevant snow pits that have been dug on a similar

927
01:02:53,560 --> 01:02:57,280
aspect in elevation.

928
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:02,000
But I think, you know, I really do think that the run list and I've worked for operations

929
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:06,040
that utilize run lists and I've worked for operations that don't utilize run lists for

930
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:07,720
various reasons.

931
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:13,440
And I always feel better when I'm working off of a run list, especially when it's peer

932
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:18,360
reviewed, you know, when I'm banging my head together with a couple other guides at the

933
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:23,800
beginning of the day, and we're coming up with some consensus around that run list.

934
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:30,120
And that can be tricky, you know, that can drag the guide meeting on for too long sometimes

935
01:03:30,120 --> 01:03:37,040
and discussions can get kind of heated sometimes based on people's desires and opinions.

936
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:41,600
And I think my approach to that is like when it's just, when it's too contentious, we just

937
01:03:41,600 --> 01:03:42,600
close it, you know.

938
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:46,640
And if you can get everybody on board for that, like we can go get more information,

939
01:03:46,640 --> 01:03:48,120
we can open it tomorrow.

940
01:03:48,120 --> 01:03:54,360
But trying to take that gray area away and not lean on that, that maybe yellowing of

941
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:56,760
runs and just make it a clear distinction.

942
01:03:56,760 --> 01:04:01,040
I think that's, that's my ideal tool for, for ski guiding.

943
01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:06,200
I think that's great takeaway for the public too of, hey, if there's not consensus in your

944
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:14,320
group, maybe like leave that for another day, and then the operations that I've worked at

945
01:04:14,320 --> 01:04:18,000
that were where you have yellow, it's because we're using explosives.

946
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:23,480
And we can send out snow safety team, they can go throw ski cuts, throw bombs and test.

947
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:27,640
And that's the clearly defined parameters of, hey, we're not worried about a PWL that's

948
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:33,320
60 CMs down, we're worried about surface wind slab, and we're estimating somewhere between

949
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:35,960
six to 12 inches deep.

950
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:40,360
So we'll throw some hand charges and we'll do some ski cuts, and then we'll open it to

951
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:41,360
the public.

952
01:04:41,360 --> 01:04:42,360
That's the yellow.

953
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:43,840
Yeah, I love that.

954
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:48,200
And like Erwin's a great example of where you guys live, where there's an operation

955
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:50,560
that does that and has an explosives permit.

956
01:04:50,560 --> 01:04:55,400
So yeah, it's always nice to be able to throw a couple of shots, you know, to either verify

957
01:04:55,400 --> 01:04:58,280
the forecast or flush something out.

958
01:04:58,280 --> 01:05:04,280
But obviously we don't all have that in our arsenal of tools every day.

959
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:09,560
I think for, for explosives, so many times we're like, oh, for sure, this is going to

960
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:10,560
go.

961
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:14,240
And you throw a bunch of charges where you put a big info 10 pounder on there and you're

962
01:05:14,240 --> 01:05:16,440
like, how did that not go?

963
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:19,680
And then you're like, oh, we got two charges left that you've already made them up.

964
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:20,680
So you got to burn them.

965
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:24,720
You're like, well, this isn't going to go, but it'll help stabilize the slope and disrupt

966
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:25,800
the layers in the future.

967
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:31,080
So let's, and then D two and a half, you're like, nobody saw that coming in morning meeting.

968
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:32,080
That was a surprise.

969
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:39,120
Yeah, there's almost no better way to like understand or see spatial variability in action

970
01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:46,120
than like a bunch of no result charges thrown and then one random charge pulls the whole

971
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:47,360
thing out, you know?

972
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:53,480
Yeah, like the fifth charge on the slope next to the rock, it's that, you know, super weak

973
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:55,120
spot, the landmine.

974
01:05:55,120 --> 01:05:56,760
The other charges didn't do out anything.

975
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,800
And you're like, oh, we just nuked the heck out of this slope.

976
01:05:59,800 --> 01:06:01,760
And then someone's like, oh, I got my last charge.

977
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:02,760
Okay.

978
01:06:02,760 --> 01:06:06,080
And then the whole thing rips and you're like, whoa, full of that variability.

979
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:07,080
Yeah.

980
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:08,080
Yeah.

981
01:06:08,080 --> 01:06:09,080
Really impressive.

982
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:10,080
Sorry, I cut you off.

983
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:11,080
What are you about to say?

984
01:06:11,080 --> 01:06:12,080
I think Dave had something there.

985
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:16,240
Oh, I was just going to say, and that folks is why being the last person down to run is

986
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:18,240
not a guarantee of safety.

987
01:06:18,240 --> 01:06:21,520
Yeah, absolutely.

988
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:30,080
I think, you know, for in the education realm, I think like the, the best tool that we can

989
01:06:30,080 --> 01:06:35,280
impart on people is to develop good habits, right?

990
01:06:35,280 --> 01:06:42,120
And have a repeatable process and, and communication, pick your partners.

991
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:45,240
I know this isn't, that's not really like one tool.

992
01:06:45,240 --> 01:06:51,600
I mean, aspect, AVI aspect, AVI is right there, you know, download aspect, AVI and start using

993
01:06:51,600 --> 01:06:57,360
it and that's going to help you to develop some good habits out there that are going

994
01:06:57,360 --> 01:07:03,600
to inform your tour planning and set you up for a successful, safe day.

995
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:04,600
That's, that's our goal.

996
01:07:04,600 --> 01:07:05,600
That's how easy it is.

997
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:06,600
Yeah.

998
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:10,520
And what I'm really excited for, I think we talked about is the run list coming out

999
01:07:10,520 --> 01:07:14,360
where it'll be all the classic run lists for your favorite areas.

1000
01:07:14,360 --> 01:07:17,520
Nobody's secret stashes, just publicly stuff.

1001
01:07:17,520 --> 01:07:19,440
And so that's your run list.

1002
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:21,440
If it's in the red, hey, that's high risk.

1003
01:07:21,440 --> 01:07:24,440
And if it's in the clear, great.

1004
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:25,440
That gets you in there.

1005
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:29,720
But just like when you're guiding, just cause it says it's low risk on the run list doesn't

1006
01:07:29,720 --> 01:07:31,200
mean that you turn your brain off.

1007
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:34,160
You're like, Oh, I'm going to use my toolbox in the app.

1008
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:35,920
I'm going to measure the run out angle.

1009
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:37,920
I'm going to use my drop in checklist.

1010
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:43,440
I'm going to verify the slope angle on the field, verify the forecast, all that stuff.

1011
01:07:43,440 --> 01:07:47,920
It just gets you in the door and like, okay, we've got 10 runs that we can work with here

1012
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:48,920
in this zone.

1013
01:07:48,920 --> 01:07:53,680
All right, let's go out and find out and manage the uncertainty with the tools in the app.

1014
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:59,600
Yeah, and I think for folks that are in areas that maybe, especially with the AspectAvi

1015
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:06,440
app that don't have this run list that's coming down the pike, now is the time.

1016
01:08:06,440 --> 01:08:11,120
And I don't know when this podcast is going to come out, but it's October 21st.

1017
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:18,200
And now is the time to be doing your homework for the season and investigating options for

1018
01:08:18,200 --> 01:08:24,600
your frequented back and tree touring areas and get on Google Earth or, you know, use

1019
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:27,720
the last nine days of Fatmap that are here.

1020
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:33,480
I think Fatmap's about to go away, but I love Fatmap for like terrain visualization.

1021
01:08:33,480 --> 01:08:39,000
Google Earth does a pretty good job too, but really like start to create a run list for

1022
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:44,920
areas that you go and start to really dissect what that terrain actually looks like.

1023
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:52,880
Look at the slope angles, look at the run out angles, and come up with, you know, create

1024
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:57,560
a folder on your computer and start getting aerial imagery if you can do that, especially

1025
01:08:57,560 --> 01:08:59,520
with snow cover.

1026
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:03,240
Try and get pictures of that terrain with avalanches in them.

1027
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:06,360
Look where the frequent runners are.

1028
01:09:06,360 --> 01:09:12,080
And all of that is just going to lead you to be able to minimize your exposure when it's

1029
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:14,000
warranted.

1030
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:21,080
But as a procrastinator, I often will put that off, right?

1031
01:09:21,080 --> 01:09:26,520
And so I think now is like these are kind of rainy fall days or like the perfect time

1032
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:31,640
to really like dig into that and create your own terrain atlas and your run list for areas

1033
01:09:31,640 --> 01:09:32,640
that you go.

1034
01:09:32,640 --> 01:09:35,480
I think that's time well spent for sure.

1035
01:09:35,480 --> 01:09:36,480
Yeah.

1036
01:09:36,480 --> 01:09:42,600
I'm always shocked this time of year when I'm starting to look for grassy slopes for early

1037
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:43,600
season skiing.

1038
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:45,840
And it is true.

1039
01:09:45,840 --> 01:09:48,120
We live in the Rocky Mountains.

1040
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:53,200
And when you look at it now, you're like, geez, man, there is so much rock and ledge

1041
01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:55,640
and rollovers in there.

1042
01:09:55,640 --> 01:10:02,880
And you know, from scraping your skis or wrecking yourself on rocks perspective, but also from,

1043
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:07,480
oh, these are all going to be trigger points, stress points in the snowpack.

1044
01:10:07,480 --> 01:10:13,920
And particularly like the anthracite range here, it's known as the anthracite mountain

1045
01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:18,280
resort because so many people go there to tour because it gets great snow and it's good

1046
01:10:18,280 --> 01:10:19,280
access.

1047
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:23,480
But when you look at East Bowl where we've had a couple fatalities over the years and

1048
01:10:23,480 --> 01:10:28,600
numerous close calls, my first human triggered avalanche was right there on a pair of TeleSkis

1049
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:31,920
with three pin bindings and fish scales.

1050
01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:36,800
You can see why because it's so leggy and there's so many alders in there.

1051
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:40,520
And you're like, oh, this is just a breeding ground for facets.

1052
01:10:40,520 --> 01:10:46,360
And it takes a ton of snow, like more than two meters to really bridge all that stuff

1053
01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:53,800
and get out of that temperature gradient regime where you're just going to be breeding facets

1054
01:10:53,800 --> 01:10:57,440
on these really steep slopes that also tend to get wind loaded.

1055
01:10:57,440 --> 01:10:58,440
Yeah.

1056
01:10:58,440 --> 01:10:59,440
Yeah.

1057
01:10:59,440 --> 01:11:04,480
And you know, many, many areas in the West have seen their first snowfall already and

1058
01:11:04,480 --> 01:11:10,080
it's important to track those where the snow melts and where it hangs out, right?

1059
01:11:10,080 --> 01:11:15,160
Like what you're speaking of of the shady high North aspects where some of this snow

1060
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:19,040
is probably going to stick around for the duration.

1061
01:11:19,040 --> 01:11:24,520
I would imagine in Colorado and start your snowpack as it often does, as weak sugary

1062
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:27,160
facets near the ground.

1063
01:11:27,160 --> 01:11:33,760
I'm always like blown away by, and it's understandable, but how people are just chomping at the bit

1064
01:11:33,760 --> 01:11:35,080
early season, right?

1065
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:42,960
Like going out and wrecking themselves on low season snowpack or early season low snowpack.

1066
01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:48,560
And then like they hang their skis up and the boards like in early April and they're

1067
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:49,760
ready to mountain bike.

1068
01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:54,600
And it's like, wait a second, like April, May, June, it's like some of the best skiing,

1069
01:11:54,600 --> 01:11:58,440
the coverage is there, stability is there, days are longer.

1070
01:11:58,440 --> 01:12:01,160
So that always like kind of blows my mind.

1071
01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:07,120
And I think we'll see, maybe we'll see some trends shift with just changing climate and

1072
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:11,080
different weather patterns that are coming in.

1073
01:12:11,080 --> 01:12:15,800
We're certainly already seeing that play out in the snowpack with longer stretches of high

1074
01:12:15,800 --> 01:12:23,720
pressure and more intense time periods where persistent weak layers can develop and then

1075
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:27,400
big intense snowfalls that create avalanches.

1076
01:12:27,400 --> 01:12:32,720
So it'll be interesting to see how the trends over time kind of like shift our patterns

1077
01:12:32,720 --> 01:12:35,760
and use either earlier or later in the season.

1078
01:12:35,760 --> 01:12:36,760
Yeah.

1079
01:12:36,760 --> 01:12:43,760
What are some prep things that you're going to be doing to ramp up for guiding or for forecasting?

1080
01:12:43,760 --> 01:12:46,320
Yeah, I think that's a great question, Jeff.

1081
01:12:46,320 --> 01:12:51,480
But like I said, kind of just like investigating different terrain options.

1082
01:12:51,480 --> 01:12:54,360
We're super lucky out in Northeastern Oregon.

1083
01:12:54,360 --> 01:13:00,400
We have a vast amount of terrain that's kind of uncharted and has been unguided.

1084
01:13:00,400 --> 01:13:06,960
And so we're excited about offering some new traverses, especially in the springtime and

1085
01:13:06,960 --> 01:13:07,960
kind of so.

1086
01:13:07,960 --> 01:13:08,960
Oh, wow.

1087
01:13:08,960 --> 01:13:09,960
That's cool.

1088
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:10,960
Yeah.

1089
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:14,960
And personally for me, like I'm looking at getting deeper into the range in the spring

1090
01:13:14,960 --> 01:13:17,640
and doing some traverses.

1091
01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:21,920
So I think just investigating terrain options, it's cool.

1092
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:27,760
In my career, I've bounced around a little bit and it's always fun to like get to a new

1093
01:13:27,760 --> 01:13:34,240
zone and really dissect it, start to expand my field of vision, whatever, four or five

1094
01:13:34,240 --> 01:13:36,320
years I've been out in Northeastern Oregon.

1095
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:41,360
Like I have a pretty good handle on a lot of the core terrain, but I'm excited to kind

1096
01:13:41,360 --> 01:13:48,560
of expand that view and start to explore some areas that are uncharted for me.

1097
01:13:48,560 --> 01:13:54,520
So yeah, putting the work in to look at different terrain options for that and kind of expand

1098
01:13:54,520 --> 01:14:00,080
the scope of where we ski guide is an exciting venture for sure.

1099
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:04,960
And is that going to be some like hot to hot touring or like camping touring or what are

1100
01:14:04,960 --> 01:14:05,960
you looking at?

1101
01:14:05,960 --> 01:14:11,440
Yeah, that, you know, we offer like a traverse from the Southern Malawas up to the Northern

1102
01:14:11,440 --> 01:14:12,440
Malawas in the spring.

1103
01:14:12,440 --> 01:14:14,600
We usually do two of those.

1104
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:16,240
And that's all camping.

1105
01:14:16,240 --> 01:14:17,240
Yeah.

1106
01:14:17,240 --> 01:14:21,240
We have some mids and snow camping.

1107
01:14:21,240 --> 01:14:24,200
Hopefully had a nice weather window there.

1108
01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:30,560
And there are a number of ski camps in the Malawas, yurts and huts that are out there.

1109
01:14:30,560 --> 01:14:33,760
And you could pretty easily connect some of those up.

1110
01:14:33,760 --> 01:14:41,520
There's kind of a big stretch in the deep in the wilderness that you probably have to

1111
01:14:41,520 --> 01:14:44,120
bivy for a night between a couple of shelters.

1112
01:14:44,120 --> 01:14:45,120
Oh, wow.

1113
01:14:45,120 --> 01:14:46,120
Yeah.

1114
01:14:46,120 --> 01:14:47,840
There's some cool opportunities there.

1115
01:14:47,840 --> 01:14:48,840
Not many people around.

1116
01:14:48,840 --> 01:14:50,840
It sounds really cool.

1117
01:14:50,840 --> 01:14:55,120
And if folks wanted to do a tour with you out there, do one of those traverses or day

1118
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:56,920
trip, how would they get old?

1119
01:14:56,920 --> 01:15:01,240
Yeah, I work mostly for my friends Victor and Kelly McNeil.

1120
01:15:01,240 --> 01:15:04,520
They own Eagle Cap Mountain Guides.

1121
01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:10,240
And so we operate a yurt out of the Western Malawas there and offer day skiing and yurt

1122
01:15:10,240 --> 01:15:17,440
base skiing access by machines up to the yurt and then ski touring from there.

1123
01:15:17,440 --> 01:15:21,080
The yurt's kind of like right on the edge of the wilderness boundary.

1124
01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:27,360
So we use the machines to get in there and then ski tour for the rest of the week.

1125
01:15:27,360 --> 01:15:30,120
And that's just eaglecapmountainguides.com.

1126
01:15:30,120 --> 01:15:33,040
So you can check out some offerings there.

1127
01:15:33,040 --> 01:15:37,920
Pretty cool place if you've never ventured out there, kind of off the radar, just like

1128
01:15:37,920 --> 01:15:39,680
we like it.

1129
01:15:39,680 --> 01:15:44,120
Is it kind of similar to touring in Little Cottonwood Canyon on a powder day, something

1130
01:15:44,120 --> 01:15:46,600
like that?

1131
01:15:46,600 --> 01:15:48,200
That's pretty hard to beat, Jeff.

1132
01:15:48,200 --> 01:15:49,200
I mean...

1133
01:15:49,200 --> 01:15:54,320
I've been for a people use, like finding a parking spot at six in the morning.

1134
01:15:54,320 --> 01:15:58,360
Sounds like you can't see anybody out there.

1135
01:15:58,360 --> 01:16:04,280
Yeah, you got to reserve the parking out in Union, Oregon.

1136
01:16:04,280 --> 01:16:08,600
You don't see many people out there.

1137
01:16:08,600 --> 01:16:15,520
We hardly ever see anybody in our ski terrain that we guide in that is not being guided.

1138
01:16:15,520 --> 01:16:18,480
Or if we do, then we know them, right?

1139
01:16:18,480 --> 01:16:19,480
Yeah.

1140
01:16:19,480 --> 01:16:20,480
That's cool.

1141
01:16:20,480 --> 01:16:26,160
And part of that is just access, like it's private parking to gain access to this point

1142
01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:28,440
in the range.

1143
01:16:28,440 --> 01:16:37,560
So there's been a guidebook that got put out recently that is a bit contentious, a non-local

1144
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:41,480
that did a lot of aerial photography.

1145
01:16:41,480 --> 01:16:43,880
It's a great resource.

1146
01:16:43,880 --> 01:16:52,200
I do like looking at the book, but from a risk management standpoint, it's a bit akin

1147
01:16:52,200 --> 01:16:53,960
to just eye candy, right?

1148
01:16:53,960 --> 01:16:57,320
It's not giving really good beta.

1149
01:16:57,320 --> 01:17:02,920
It's almost giving people enough information just to get themselves in trouble, which I

1150
01:17:02,920 --> 01:17:08,440
feel conflicted about with people putting information out like that.

1151
01:17:08,440 --> 01:17:16,480
So it has put the area on the radar a bit more, but yeah, it's still pretty quiet out

1152
01:17:16,480 --> 01:17:17,480
there.

1153
01:17:17,480 --> 01:17:19,960
I've definitely learned to appreciate more and more of the solitude aspect.

1154
01:17:19,960 --> 01:17:25,680
Like after so many decades guiding out of Chomany and the Alps in general, people are

1155
01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:27,120
like, why did you come back here?

1156
01:17:27,120 --> 01:17:29,400
And I'm like, well, solitude is part of the experience.

1157
01:17:29,400 --> 01:17:36,280
And I'm just over waiting in lines at trams and stuff and I'd much rather just go out

1158
01:17:36,280 --> 01:17:38,960
someplace where we're not going to see anybody.

1159
01:17:38,960 --> 01:17:43,120
Or like you said, if we do, someone we know, I'm like, oh, hey, share a little thermos

1160
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:44,120
hot cocoa.

1161
01:17:44,120 --> 01:17:45,120
Let's hang out.

1162
01:17:45,120 --> 01:17:47,920
I really enjoy that aspect of it too.

1163
01:17:47,920 --> 01:17:48,920
Yeah.

1164
01:17:48,920 --> 01:17:52,360
Well, Jeff, to be fair, you just admitted to me like three days ago that you pretty much

1165
01:17:52,360 --> 01:17:54,520
never skied any resort in Colorado.

1166
01:17:54,520 --> 01:17:58,120
So you haven't even seen crowds yet, dude.

1167
01:17:58,120 --> 01:17:59,720
I know.

1168
01:17:59,720 --> 01:18:00,720
I know.

1169
01:18:00,720 --> 01:18:01,720
Resolute.

1170
01:18:01,720 --> 01:18:06,120
I walked 100 feet to the stop sign, take the bus up to Crest Abuse ski area.

1171
01:18:06,120 --> 01:18:07,120
Yeah.

1172
01:18:07,120 --> 01:18:13,600
I was not into traveling to go wait in lines or get stuck in traffic.

1173
01:18:13,600 --> 01:18:17,360
So I think the only places I've skied are probably like Monarch.

1174
01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:20,240
I did go in there because it's super chill.

1175
01:18:20,240 --> 01:18:25,080
Maybe a day at Telluride and that might be it.

1176
01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:26,840
Well, we're talking about going to Wolf Creek tomorrow.

1177
01:18:26,840 --> 01:18:28,360
Are you in there?

1178
01:18:28,360 --> 01:18:30,800
I'm like, well, it's super chill.

1179
01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:31,800
Yeah.

1180
01:18:31,800 --> 01:18:34,640
Great local food in the cabin.

1181
01:18:34,640 --> 01:18:35,640
They're opening this weekend.

1182
01:18:35,640 --> 01:18:36,640
I heard.

1183
01:18:36,640 --> 01:18:37,640
Yeah.

1184
01:18:37,640 --> 01:18:38,640
Open in tomorrow.

1185
01:18:38,640 --> 01:18:40,040
So we're talking about going down.

1186
01:18:40,040 --> 01:18:41,040
Yeah.

1187
01:18:41,040 --> 01:18:42,040
20.

1188
01:18:42,040 --> 01:18:43,040
Yeah.

1189
01:18:43,040 --> 01:18:44,040
Something like 26 inches out of the storm.

1190
01:18:44,040 --> 01:18:45,040
Nice.

1191
01:18:45,040 --> 01:18:46,040
Yeah.

1192
01:18:46,040 --> 01:18:47,040
Finally, I was like winter here.

1193
01:18:47,040 --> 01:18:50,960
It's been kind of tiptoeing around like solid fall weather for a week and now it's like

1194
01:18:50,960 --> 01:18:52,440
woke up the snow on the ground.

1195
01:18:52,440 --> 01:18:54,640
So I think we're headed the right direction.

1196
01:18:54,640 --> 01:18:55,640
Yeah.

1197
01:18:55,640 --> 01:18:59,840
Yeah, I was seeing some snow shed off of Jeff's roof there back in the background.

1198
01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:00,840
Yeah.

1199
01:19:00,840 --> 01:19:01,840
Yeah.

1200
01:19:01,840 --> 01:19:02,840
Yeah.

1201
01:19:02,840 --> 01:19:05,440
I'm going to go up for a quick ski up in the past that after we get off of here, grab

1202
01:19:05,440 --> 01:19:09,400
some lunch and then take the dog up so he doesn't totally hate me for not playing in

1203
01:19:09,400 --> 01:19:10,640
the snow today.

1204
01:19:10,640 --> 01:19:15,360
Well, on that note, we could probably wrap this up.

1205
01:19:15,360 --> 01:19:18,160
Caleb, thank you so much for doing this.

1206
01:19:18,160 --> 01:19:20,000
It's cool talking to you, man.

1207
01:19:20,000 --> 01:19:22,240
You're an insightful dude for sure.

1208
01:19:22,240 --> 01:19:29,680
And I like hearing kind of the way you think about it from someone who's had so many high-level

1209
01:19:29,680 --> 01:19:31,280
conversations in the industry.

1210
01:19:31,280 --> 01:19:32,280
Really cool.

1211
01:19:32,280 --> 01:19:33,280
Yeah.

1212
01:19:33,280 --> 01:19:34,280
And Caleb, one last question.

1213
01:19:34,280 --> 01:19:35,280
Yeah.

1214
01:19:35,280 --> 01:19:38,600
Are there any projects that you'd like to share with the audience and bring their attention

1215
01:19:38,600 --> 01:19:39,600
to?

1216
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:40,600
Yeah.

1217
01:19:40,600 --> 01:19:45,000
I guess a couple that are kind of front of mind for me are kind of like, one, just supporting

1218
01:19:45,000 --> 01:19:47,480
your Avalanche Center, right?

1219
01:19:47,480 --> 01:19:56,440
Like there's been a bit of a scare recently with the 2025 temp seasonal hiring freeze.

1220
01:19:56,440 --> 01:19:59,120
I don't know if you guys know about that, but...

1221
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:00,920
From the government.

1222
01:20:00,920 --> 01:20:03,920
From the United States Forest Service, yeah.

1223
01:20:03,920 --> 01:20:09,040
And I'm not sure exactly where it's at right now, but they're saying that they were going

1224
01:20:09,040 --> 01:20:16,960
to not hire any temporary seasonals other than fire essential staff for 2025, which could

1225
01:20:16,960 --> 01:20:21,800
significantly affect Avalanche Centers, right?

1226
01:20:21,800 --> 01:20:25,040
There's 14 Forest Service Avalanche Centers.

1227
01:20:25,040 --> 01:20:30,160
There's nine additional nonprofit centers or state-run centers.

1228
01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:35,800
And I think it just highlights the need for community support of these Avalanche Centers

1229
01:20:35,800 --> 01:20:42,080
and supporting your friends group, friends of the Avalanche Centers that can kind of step

1230
01:20:42,080 --> 01:20:49,720
in to fill that void if the federal government kind of drops the ball on being able to hire

1231
01:20:49,720 --> 01:20:55,560
some of these essential employees, what we see as essential employees for sure.

1232
01:20:55,560 --> 01:21:00,000
So yeah, just a plug for supporting your local Avalanche Center.

1233
01:21:00,000 --> 01:21:02,640
I think the Avalanche Alliance is doing some great work.

1234
01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:05,160
I don't know if you're familiar with that organization.

1235
01:21:05,160 --> 01:21:08,360
It's a motorized organization.

1236
01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:14,040
Created by some folks at Climb and Aerie has a big part in that too.

1237
01:21:14,040 --> 01:21:19,480
Like this last year, they raised something like $80,000.

1238
01:21:19,480 --> 01:21:25,480
I think $71,000 in grants were awarded to different Avalanche Centers.

1239
01:21:25,480 --> 01:21:31,320
And many of those are nonprofit Avalanche Centers that don't get funding from the Forest Service.

1240
01:21:31,320 --> 01:21:36,440
So they raise money for Avalanche Centers to expand education, bring about more weather

1241
01:21:36,440 --> 01:21:41,680
stations and just general outreach to the motorized community.

1242
01:21:41,680 --> 01:21:48,080
So I think some folks in the ski world are a little bit unaware of all the support that

1243
01:21:48,080 --> 01:21:53,400
comes from the motorized community that's helping their Avalanche Centers to function

1244
01:21:53,400 --> 01:21:54,880
at a higher level.

1245
01:21:54,880 --> 01:21:59,240
And then the last one would be the Avalanche Resilience Project and the American Avalanche

1246
01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:05,360
Association in general is such a connector of our community and kind of the web that

1247
01:22:05,360 --> 01:22:08,240
keeps many of us together and connected.

1248
01:22:08,240 --> 01:22:14,200
And so all of the projects that are ongoing by the A3, whether it's looking at pro and

1249
01:22:14,200 --> 01:22:20,120
rec education, trying to refine that and make it better.

1250
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:25,840
And one of the projects that I specifically like is the Avalanche Resilience Project,

1251
01:22:25,840 --> 01:22:31,480
which is like mental health initiatives for workers in the industry, funding for team

1252
01:22:31,480 --> 01:22:37,720
trainings and if you're struggling with mental health and work in the industry, there's money

1253
01:22:37,720 --> 01:22:41,760
there for you to go talk to somebody.

1254
01:22:41,760 --> 01:22:49,680
So I think that's a huge step in the right direction as an industry as a whole because

1255
01:22:49,680 --> 01:22:55,880
this job can take its toll on you for sure no matter what aspect you're working at it

1256
01:22:55,880 --> 01:22:56,880
from.

1257
01:22:56,880 --> 01:23:01,920
Those are a few that I'm kind of like jazzed up on that I think people should know about.

1258
01:23:01,920 --> 01:23:04,480
There's a lot of others out there as well.

1259
01:23:04,480 --> 01:23:05,800
Well linked those for sure.

1260
01:23:05,800 --> 01:23:06,800
Yeah.

1261
01:23:06,800 --> 01:23:07,800
Cool.

1262
01:23:07,800 --> 01:23:11,080
And I think a lot of lay people who are outside the industry aren't familiar with the work

1263
01:23:11,080 --> 01:23:15,400
of the AAA, but they're like the umbrella organization governing body for everything

1264
01:23:15,400 --> 01:23:22,960
Avalanche and connect all the different spokes to the wheel and provide the overarching guidelines

1265
01:23:22,960 --> 01:23:25,480
for the recreational class you're going to take.

1266
01:23:25,480 --> 01:23:29,400
And so all those are AAA approved for hopefully.

1267
01:23:29,400 --> 01:23:34,520
Yeah, they're the ones that set standards and say, hey, you need to cover these in your

1268
01:23:34,520 --> 01:23:35,520
recreational program.

1269
01:23:35,520 --> 01:23:42,000
Avalanche course, how you do that, that can be flexible, but you need to hit these points.

1270
01:23:42,000 --> 01:23:47,560
Yeah, it's definitely advised to like take your Avalanche education from an A3 recognized

1271
01:23:47,560 --> 01:23:48,880
provider, right?

1272
01:23:48,880 --> 01:23:50,760
Like they're hitting the standards.

1273
01:23:50,760 --> 01:23:51,760
Yeah.

1274
01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:52,760
Yeah.

1275
01:23:52,760 --> 01:23:53,760
Cool.

1276
01:23:53,760 --> 01:23:54,760
Well, this has been super fun.

1277
01:23:54,760 --> 01:23:58,640
I'm excited to be on the other side of the mic and yeah, had a blast.

1278
01:23:58,640 --> 01:23:59,640
Hell yeah.

1279
01:23:59,640 --> 01:24:00,640
Hell yeah.

1280
01:24:00,640 --> 01:24:01,640
Thanks for coming on.

1281
01:24:01,640 --> 01:24:07,680
Obviously, one last plug, you know, the Avalanche Hour podcast, if anyone hasn't heard of it

1282
01:24:07,680 --> 01:24:09,560
like me, go check it out.

1283
01:24:09,560 --> 01:24:15,640
It's a wealth of information and you got it on your last words.

1284
01:24:15,640 --> 01:24:20,920
I think one of the ways that Caleb, you do a good job of sharing information is through

1285
01:24:20,920 --> 01:24:22,320
stories that resonate.

1286
01:24:22,320 --> 01:24:27,520
You know, I spend a lot of time looking at data, but I don't remember that.

1287
01:24:27,520 --> 01:24:33,440
What I remember is stories that have an emotional resonance and I think that's the thread that

1288
01:24:33,440 --> 01:24:36,400
connects all the podcasts and guests that you have.

1289
01:24:36,400 --> 01:24:43,080
They're these stories that stick with you and add to your Avalanche processing power

1290
01:24:43,080 --> 01:24:44,560
and when you're out there in the field.

1291
01:24:44,560 --> 01:24:45,560
So thanks for that.

1292
01:24:45,560 --> 01:24:46,560
Yeah.

1293
01:24:46,560 --> 01:24:49,760
Well, I'm glad if it's working.

1294
01:24:49,760 --> 01:24:50,760
Keep doing it.

1295
01:24:50,760 --> 01:24:54,360
Yeah, and if you ever find yourself in Colorado, let's go skiing.

1296
01:24:54,360 --> 01:24:56,200
Yeah, let's do it.

1297
01:24:56,200 --> 01:24:57,200
I'll be sick.

1298
01:24:57,200 --> 01:24:58,200
I look forward to it.

1299
01:24:58,200 --> 01:24:59,200
Thanks so much.

1300
01:24:59,200 --> 01:25:01,200
I gotta make it back to you soon.

1301
01:25:01,200 --> 01:25:02,200
Yeah.

1302
01:25:02,200 --> 01:25:03,200
Yeah, we'd love that.

1303
01:25:03,200 --> 01:25:04,200
All right, guys.

1304
01:25:04,200 --> 01:25:05,200
We'll chat later.

1305
01:25:05,200 --> 01:25:06,200
Take it easy.

1306
01:25:06,200 --> 01:25:07,200
Thanks.

1307
01:25:07,200 --> 01:25:08,200
Have a good one.

1308
01:25:08,200 --> 01:25:09,200
Appreciate it.