Hey, we're really excited to welcome Caleb Merrill to the podcast.
He is the the OG of Avalanche Podcast.
If you haven't heard him on the Avalanche Hour podcast, you really need to check it out.
Caleb's got a unique position in the Avalanche industry.
He works as a mountain guide, Avalanche forecaster and Avalanche educator.
He's up in Eastern Oregon, and he's also talked to pretty much everyone in the
industry on his podcast.
So he's been exposed to all kinds of different perspectives and ideas.
And he's kind of like this unique position to spread out all those ideas to the rest
of the Avalanche world.
So welcome, Caleb.
Good to have you here.
Jeff, Dave, thanks for having me.
Yeah, happy to be here.
Yeah, dude, we're I'm feeling leveled up right now.
This is this is episode one of season two.
We got the OG, like the biggest podcaster in this space right here.
Well, you guys, you guys are talking it up quite a bit here, but, you know, the Avalanche Hour
podcast has been a super fun project of mine, kind of a side gig.
And, and, you know, it kind of came about in 2016.
I was driving to ISSW in Breckenridge with some friends and, and we were like, oh,
let's get our brains tuned up for this ISSW.
Like there must be some podcasts about Avalanches.
So you put in a simple podcast search for Avalanches and all that came up was the Colorado
Avalanche hockey team podcast, right?
Which I'm sure has a pretty strong following.
It does.
Around here.
Yeah.
And then in just talking with some people at ISSW that year, you know, it seemed like
it would be a cool project to take on.
And, and, you know, Doug Kraus started his podcast slide that was, you know, I think
he did two seasons of that and that was like so good.
I wish he would bring it back or at least I should get him on my podcast at some point.
But, yeah, and it's cool to see kind of this space grow.
And, and, you know, I think that the biggest way that I learn is from storytelling, from
hearing other people's stories.
And, and I can remember back to being a rookie ski patroller and just hanging out in the
locker room after, you know, maybe a week of avalanche mitigation, just going hard
up on the ridge and, and just hearing stories of veteran ski patrollers telling when, you
know, their lessons learned over the years.
And, and it was just so impactful to me for my career.
And, and many of those stories are still with me today.
And I think about them all the time in the winter.
So trying to expand that out through the podcast has been a super fun venture and just getting
to connect with so many people within our community, both in the States and in Canada
and, and over in Europe as well.
So, yeah, it's fun.
And it's a, it's a shared, shared endeavor.
I have some guest hosts.
And so that's kind of where I'm hoping to lead the podcast these days is to get different
perspectives and different voices, more diverse array of folks that are asking the questions
of some of the leaders within our industry.
So it's cool to, I've really enjoyed tuning into some of the all aspects avi podcasts
as well.
I think you guys are doing a great job.
That's high praise coming for you, man.
Thank you for that.
Yeah, no, your pot is awesome.
It's I got to be totally honest here.
I'd actually didn't know it existed until you did it with Jeff.
And then I went and listened to like six episodes.
And it was nice.
Sweet.
But yeah, Jeff, let's, let's jump into some.
I know you have some burning questions.
I've got one for Caleb right off the bat.
So I noticed on your podcast, you're real good about creating a welcoming place where
people can open up and talk about the closest they've come to death with an avalanche on
your podcast.
And that you kind of hold that space.
So it's not judgy.
It's like, no, we've all made mistakes as professionals.
And I think it's really helpful to normalize that so that instead of a culture of shame
and blame, it's like, no, no, no, here's what everyone can learn from this.
So what I want to know is after all these stories you've heard and then different perspectives,
it's like that analogy of like the blind guy groping the elephant, a whole bunch of folks
who are like describing different parts of the elephant.
So you heard the elephant described from so many different perspectives.
How has that changed how you manage risk in avalanche training?
You know, over there, some perspectives that really resonated with you and you're like,
ooh, that's changed the way I go about my teaching, my forecasting, my guiding.
Yeah, I mean, I think there have been some trends lately where more experienced users
are getting caught.
Right.
Like we're watching the demographic and this is kind of an anecdote.
But you know, we're watching the demographic get a little bit older, a little bit more
experienced.
And so I think it kind of comes down to, I would sum that up simply with Andre Rocha's
quote of the avalanche does not know that you're an expert or the avalanche doesn't
care what you know.
And so like, I think when, how it's affected, how listening to so many stories of near misses
and close calls and accidents has affected me is just building wider margins into my
day and understanding that I'm not, even though I live and breathe this stuff, I still have
weaknesses.
I also have strengths, but I am not immune to the fallacies of the human condition.
And I know, I understand that when I'm standing at the top of a slope, if I don't have a well
thought out plan for the day and I find myself somewhere that looks really enticing, I'm
really going to want to ski it.
The addiction can be real.
Right.
I think it's like real to talk about it as an addiction and being aware of like our fallacies
of falling into those traps.
So I think wider margins, I'm really impacted by people celebrating, turning around and being
okay with that.
And kind of, I've tried to bring that into my practice, into my guiding and recreational
riding out there.
So I think another theme that comes up a lot is just having a repeatable process, especially
in the recreational user patch.
Having a process that creating good habits in the back country takes work.
And it's not something that is just given to you by taking a rec level one course.
It takes practice and application and some discipline.
So I think back to when I started getting into recreational back country skiing, I was
concurrently a ski patroller and running avalanche mitigation routes and kind of created
this somewhat of a false sense of security or maybe not security, but false sense of
accountability with triggering avalanches in a semi controlled environment of the ski
area.
And then I started getting into more ski touring and I was like, wow, this is a totally different
game venturing into a natural snowpack that's not mitigated.
And maybe at this point we're not dealing with just surface instabilities that we're
trying to mitigate at the ski area, aside from early season opening of terrain when you
might be dealing with a deeper persistent week later or something.
But that application of moving into a different context, I think is sometimes understated.
And I know it was for my career.
And my ventures into the back country was kind of like, there's the ability to miss
apply context of what you're doing based on your experiences in a different context,
if that makes sense.
Yeah.
I do that all the time.
I'm like, brand new sport.
This is probably the same as skiing.
Like I'm pretty good at skiing.
I'll probably be pretty good at this sport.
And then it's like 15 minutes into it.
I'm like, oh no, this is a completely different thing, Dave.
Go back to level zero.
Right.
Totally.
Yeah.
I think, you know, I'm reminded of something that one of my mentors Fred Aldridge said.
I heliske guided with him in the rubies and fought some fire with him as well.
And when I interviewed him for the podcast, he was, he talked about how the novice focuses
on the basics and the masters focus on the basics.
Right.
And that kind of, in my mind, that kind of leads into kind of the Dunning Kruger effect.
Right.
And like, where is our level of confidence with our skills and our abilities and our
knowledge and our uncertainties in the back country realm and, and trying to honestly
assess that in yourself, I think is a really essential skill into keeping yourself safe.
Like, what do I, what do I know?
What do I not know?
And what do I not know that I don't know?
If that makes sense.
The unknown unknowns.
The Donald Rums, the Zen Kone Square, the unknown unknowns.
Yeah.
I like that.
I like the Mark Twain quote of, it ain't the things you don't know that get you.
It's the things you know for sure that just ain't so.
I was like, oh, interesting.
That's the human factor trap.
Yeah.
So we're, the gist of our podcast is to talk about how we do dangerous things the safest
way possible.
And how is that changed over time for you, because that's what you do in all the hats
you wear, whether it's guiding, forecasting or teaching, you're helping people do risky
things the safest way possible.
How's your, your thinking and your approach changed over time?
Well plus Jeff, he's also like, I mean, I watched you on the, I don't know, it was like
that sled podcast from 2023.
Oh yeah.
Yeah.
And you had some really good insight about the transition between or taking your skills
from what you know about in the back country and then like applying them into this.
I mean, essentially a brand new sport.
And you know, like even though, yeah, like snow, you're well versed in know how to think
about and how to approach avalanche problems.
There's like a whole new thing when you got on a sled finally.
Yeah.
It's total, totally different applications.
Really cool to like be back at the beginner stage, you know, I'm probably like a blue
square sledder at this point, but like feeling the progression there and taking that application
and putting it into just a whole different mode of travel, but in a familiar back country
setting has been, I think, I don't think I even expected it to be as different as it
has been, but there's been a lot of learning and growth.
And I certainly make, I think I make more conservative decisions on my sled just because
of my ability to maneuver the machine.
Then you know, I feel quite a bit more nimble on my skis.
But kind of going back to Jeff's original question, like, I think I honestly, I look
back to starting my podcast.
And I think, I don't think I knew this at the time, but I think subconsciously, like
I was looking for the magic bullet that doesn't exist.
And I had always been told that it didn't exist, right?
But I saw all of these people out there seemingly doing it, like seemingly, and this is where
social media, like don't even get me started on social media and the facade that creates
of what people are doing in the back country.
It's ridiculous.
And I think it's super detrimental in some ways to our community.
But you know, I think subconsciously, I was looking for this magic bullet and I'm like,
oh, I'm going to talk to people like Jeff Banks.
He's been doing this for a super long time.
He's got to have the secret sauce, like the magic to it.
And just to answer your same question, like how are we going to do these risky things
in the safest way possible?
And what I found out is there's no magic bullet.
And it takes a lot of patience.
And it takes saying no.
It takes looking at yourself introspectively and identifying your strengths and weaknesses.
And I think you're probably reaching for kind of like tangible things that I do to manage
my risk.
And that's all stuff that has been super vetted and is embedded in our avalanche education
curriculums throughout the stage, like the repeatable process, like dialing in your tour
planning, previewing the train before you enter the train, having options in your day
so that, you know, the, I like to say, like the only certain thing out there is uncertainty.
Like you're going to run into areas of uncertainty anytime you go into the back country.
And so to have options within your day to retreat to safer terrain is super essential
and to expect the unexpected.
So those are some ways that like I feel like I've tried to implement some of these tools
into my own recreational skiing or riding.
And I, you know, it's sometimes it's easier to apply those things in a more operational
setting because that's a little bit more embedded in the culture, you know, especially
with AMGA guide training and, you know, operating off a run list, making our decisions about
what we're going to ski when we're in a warm yurt or in a coffee shop and not making those
decisions in the field is totally.
I think what you're saying there for our audience is super important.
I think a lot of folks think a mountain guide goes out and puts their finger to the air
and says, oh, we're going to ski this.
Let me dig a couple of pits along the way and we'll make that decision.
And it's like, no, no, no, no, it's been gathering data throughout the whole season.
And then the run list is made at home and we can't green light terrain in the field.
We can only red light terrain and fall back to more conservative options when when we're
confronted with more uncertainty in the field.
And the observations we're gathering, they're not to ski steeper stuff.
It's not like, oh, we'll get up there and dig a pit and ski the bowl if it looks good.
It's like, no, no, no, we're checking to confirm our hypothesis.
And if it's more uncertain than we thought, that's where those options to fall back are
super clutch.
I think that's super important.
And maybe something that people don't quite understand about the avalanche industry.
If you're a layperson just out skiing and I think a lot of folks will say, well, let's
go to this zone and we'll figure it out.
And I'm like, whoa, hold on.
I don't think I want to go for that trip.
Yeah.
And you know, and I'm guilty of that at times, you know, what I've tried to turn that into
is like, okay, well, let's ratchet back my goals or objectives for the day.
If my uncertainty lies in the train and I haven't been able to get a good handle on the train
through mapping software guidebooks, talking to people, getting beta, then, you know, like
I'm just going to, I know that my uncertainty may lie within the snowpack and the train.
And I'm going to dial back and kind of turn that day into more of a recon tour, right?
Like maybe I do need to be in the field and see the train to really like understand some
of the nuances of certain terrain traps or convex features or unsupported slopes.
But I'm going to frame my day as I'm just going to go stick to ridgelines and terrain
less than 30 degrees and get a handle, become more familiar with this terrain before I maybe
engage in more consequential aspects of that terrain.
And that takes patience, you know?
And I understand that's difficult if you just have maybe one or two days a week to get in
the back country and there's this like pressure that maybe people put on themselves or they
feel from social media to perform.
And I think that that stress can become real and people are resistant to throw away a day,
so to speak, air quotes there, throw away a day, doing the recon and really doing the
research that they need to intimately know the terrain that they're going to be recreating
in or operating in.
Yeah, I think of that idea of, you know, going out and getting skunked.
And when I was younger, that used to happen where you're like, oh, we've got this idealized
plan.
And then we're like, oh, conditions are super sketch and there's no backup plan.
And now, you know, particularly last year, I think we talked about how all over the mountain
West there was a freakishly high number of high danger days.
And we were just pegged at considerable with a persistent week layer for much of the winter.
So it's like, okay, doing more effort on tour planning.
You know, every time I go out now, we're having a rewarding tour, even if it means exactly
what you said, staying on ridge lines and keeping it under 30 degrees.
And it's like zero stress, super fun.
And we're getting lumps, collapses, remote triggers.
But we're in this island in the sky where the only dangerous terrain is below us.
And there's almost like this smug satisfaction of feeling like, man, conditions are really
tricky.
But by choosing gentle terrain, we're having so much fun and I'm not puckered.
I'm not gripped and I'm not losing sleep the night before because we've already done
our tour plan.
And we know we're set up to have a great tour no matter what.
Yeah.
And you feel better at the end of the day.
Like you nailed it.
Like not that you got away with something that you're like, like, I think we nailed it.
But I'm not sure, you know.
Yeah, I like that feeling a lot better than the feeling of kind of guilt of like, ooh,
I think I got away with something.
Yeah.
And also just adjusting to be like, you can set expectations for any activity you go to,
right?
Whether it's skiing or climbing or biking or whatever.
But if like, you ratchet it back to just being specifically with skiing of like, hey, we're
going out skiing today and like for the sake of going out skiing today, then like you open
yourself up to having a great time, kind of whatever happens, you know, like it takes
that pressure way back.
It's only when you start being like, we're going to go to this zone, hit these lines.
Like that's when things are getting really muddy and gray on like the risk factor, at
least from what I've experienced.
Yeah, I totally agree, Dave.
I think like kind of leaving the expectations of the day at home is and just fostering a
cautious curiosity about what's going on and enjoying the time that you have out there
with those people, you know, that's the best way to approach it in my opinion.
It's like, well, you could be sitting at your desk or you could be out on skis.
Yeah.
Caleb, one thing that resonated when you said, hey, you know, I was hoping to find the magic
bullet and to talk and all these experts who have spent 10, 20, 30, 40 years in the industry.
Surely I'm going to stumble into the magic bullet.
And the closest bullet that I found is the big buffers to ward off the uncertainty.
And with having large buffers, I'm like, hey, everything we do, driving a car, getting
out of bed in the morning has residual risk.
And it's always going to be there.
However, if I can make sure those safety buffers are quite robust between me and the anticipated
problems, that can allow for the wildcards to come up in the deck, Joker to rear its head
and be like, oh, we've got a big enough buffer.
It's not going to catch us or it's unlikely to catch us.
And it's brought the stress down so much that even though I'm not riding super steep lines
like I used to, that satisfaction of being like, I'm not scared, and I'm not going to
inadvertently get my clients or friends killed, that satisfaction goes way up.
And the whole experience becomes very different and really deeply satisfying of, okay, I've
recalibrated, I think.
And we're doing this in a sustainable manner that's really stress-free.
And then when we do get those days where stability lines up, you're like, okay, these
are the days to go steeper.
And it's okay if there's less on the year of that.
It's setting us up for success and we're just not scared.
Yeah.
Yeah, Jeff, what do you think of as your areas of uncertainty when you head out on a ski tour?
Oh, man.
He's camera man.
He's dropping back into podcast hose role here.
That's right.
Well, you know, from skiing a little bit around this area, it's unusual for us not to have
a persistent week layer of concern.
It's very unusual.
Occasionally, after we've been getting these massive 10 inches of suede, that's snow water
equivalent for the non-Avalanche geeks out there.
So that's 10 inches of water weight.
And then, you know, sometimes after that, when the snowpack has a chance to either avalanche
off or kind of consolidate into a two-meter snowpack, then we might get a window of low
danger.
We're like, oh, wow, this is incredibly rare mid-season.
But for the most time, most of the time we're out there, there is an area of concern.
And if you want to get away from that faceted layer or surface tour layer, it means you
got to go on the sunny side in Colorado so far south that we'll often have sun crust,
even if the sun's out for 10 minutes, get a zipper crust.
So you're often skiing the shady side where the PWL is.
And so just giving big buffers on that.
And after going through the data and being like, oh, OK, here's the rules.
And, you know, we didn't do this on your show.
But, you know, basically the generalized simple write it down on an envelope or put it down
on your skis with a marker.
You know, the algorithm rules are really conservative that we're using for aspect
avi.
So if it's low danger, keep it under 40.
If it's moderate danger, keep it under 35.
So that's still black diamond terrain.
And if you scary moderate, which is what the pros always call moderate with a PWL, and
the public may not have heard of that term before, but we use it.
We're like, hey, different rules.
Because that PWL kills about 95% of the victims in Colorado.
So it's the best predictor of danger.
So if it's scary moderate, then it's keep it under 33 degrees and stay out of the run
out zones.
And I love being able to measure the run out zones now.
That's really something that makes me warm and fuzzy inside instead of guessing.
I hate guessing.
And then if it's considerable danger, keeping it under 30 and out of the run out zones.
Those are just real simple rules to live by for a long, happy life in the back country.
And you know, people ask me, oh, but you must do it differently on your day off.
I'm like, no, I still don't want to die on my day off.
And I like to be really relaxed and stress free.
And you know, there are times where if you know those rules really well, there's four
exceptions where you can push it.
But for me, that just makes life super simple and fun and gives us wide buffers.
And it's not to say that that's no risk, but it's really low risk.
And it's more in line with my risk tolerance now.
And also just being around doing this for three decades.
I've seen a lot of surprises where I was absolutely certain.
And then it turns out I was dead wrong and almost really dead.
And so that's given me such a healthy respect of just like put those buffers up, keep the
car on the road with those guardrails and life's really fun.
Yeah.
Yeah, I know.
I want to kind of ask you a little like a broader question.
Jeff, thank you for taking us on our detour through the AspectAvy app as usual.
The shameless product plug.
Yeah.
But I wanted to, I know Jeff talks about this a lot and we've talked about this with people
like Angela Haas and stuff like that.
Over, I mean, you've been in this for what, two decades?
Like 20 years?
Almost.
Yeah.
So like, you know, you're starting on ski patrol at Solitude.
I think I saw, you know, you've been guiding, you've been doing all this stuff.
Has there been like a general shift in the way people view risk that you've seen over
that time period?
And then have there been maybe like sort of bigger moments where like the whole thing
kind of shifted that you can think of?
I'm just curious to see what your thoughts on that are.
Yeah, that's a good question, Dave.
I think, you know, risk tolerance is such a personal thing to many people and like you
can break it down to some kind of science-y or heady terms.
But I think in general, we have seen a shift and I think that people are starting to step
it back, but they're not showcasing that.
And I hope I'm not stepping around your question too much, but like what really gets me jazzed
up is seeing Instagram posts or videos of professional skiers being really honest about
their process of engaging in consequential terrain and getting a behind the scenes look
into what goes into that and how often people are turning around and celebrating that.
So I think as a whole, our culture is starting to embrace that.
But I mean, let's be real, it's not as sexy as nailing the line, you know, like that does
not get the clicks, you know?
And so I don't know that I can like pinpoint one event or even a series of events that's
happened there.
I think generally just kind of the outreach and education movement that's happened and
the amount of resources that the community is putting into education collectively is
helping to create a shift, especially in the recreation side of backcountry riding.
But you know, I think for me personally, kind of like just dropping the ego a little bit,
trying to approach entering the backcountry with humility and a humble attitude has served
me really well.
And it's not something that I claim to have perfected yet, but it's something that I work
on every time that I go out there and allow me the ability, it allows me the ability to
be surprised through proper terrain margins and proper planning.
And yeah, I guess just kind of understanding that I'm not always going to have understanding
and accepting that I might not always have the whole picture helps to ratchet it back
for me.
I don't know if that answers your question, Dave.
Totally.
I just find it fascinating people, you know, like my background is slope style and half
pipe skiing and you know, we would go in the backcountry, it was like building booters.
And we had zero self-awareness of what we were doing, you know, like just building jumps
or other, there was a sweet steep landing kind of thing, not really being very aware
of the broader train we were in.
And so for me now like hanging out with Jeff and talking to all these people who are undeniably
the like the OGs of this industry, like it's like what anyone kind of like I've just started
realizing how much I didn't know, you know, and I just find it really interesting hearing
from people who've been in it for a long time about kind of just the way it's changed over
the years.
You know, we were talking to Angel about like client expectations.
You know, 20 years ago people like wanted that crazy adrenaline experience and she's
like now people are like, yeah, we want to go to this beautiful place and do this big
thing that we're proud of.
But you know, like we all want to make it back to the boat, you know, kind of thing.
So I think I think your answer was great.
There wasn't a wrong writer or a wrong answer to that.
It makes me think a little bit about like and reflect on some of my guiding more specifically
heli ski guiding of my perception of my guests expectations.
Right.
Yeah, like I will go into a day thinking that these people want to ski super steep lines
and early terrain and and then come to find out there's just like totally happy just being
out in the middle of the Chugach with nobody around and just being in this beautiful place
like skiing appropriately matched terrain for the conditions, you know, and that's and
it's gotten me in trouble before or came very close to getting me in trouble of like mismatching
my perception of other people's expectations.
So that's that's a red flag for me when I start projecting what I think other people
are are expecting.
Man, that's how do you, you know, that seems like something to be hashed out.
Like how, you know, is that just like the vibe you're getting when you're talking to
people or what what leads to that?
Oh, I mean, yeah, it is the vibe that I'm getting when I first meet them.
It's just watching them on their first run, kind of watching their body language when
they're talking to their buddies.
If I think that I'm serving up something that's pretty mellow, you know, and that's a that's
a terrain progression is a great tool for getting to know your clients and getting to
know what's going on in the snow and kind of starting with some some slope of low or
no consequence and getting more questions to your answers or answers to your questions
and then moving into maybe some steeper terrain if if things are lining up.
But yeah, I mean, it brings about like this approach to guiding that is just more honest
and open.
And I'm, you know, I get a little bit vulnerable and I ask the people what what they want to
do, you know, I, you know, we're somewhat of a team out there, even in a guiding scenario.
And that's how I approach guiding is I like, I, you know, if I'm out there with four people,
four to one guiding, that's like, I'm not very good at math, but I think it's 10 eyes
out there instead of just my two eyes, right?
And I try and utilize my my guests to let me know how they're feeling and and and also
what they're seeing out there because sometimes I miss things.
It's hard to imagine, but I'm sure you can relate.
Well, that's that's that's unique compared to, you know, I've heard Jeff's Jeff's experience
with tour planning and stuff for clients, but I think Jeff, you're much more on the
touring kind of side where it's, you know, a bit more of like, we're going to go to a
zone for the day, but with Helle, you have so many more runs and so much more accessibility,
like that.
I didn't really think about that until just now.
I would echo Caleb's reflection of self-imposed pressure of I'm supposed to know exactly where
the line is and take the guests right up to the line.
That's how I felt at the early part of my career.
And then it was like, this is ridiculous.
Like, you know, nobody knows exactly where the line is.
So we need to give a buffer.
And I really like a collaborative approach of, hey team, here's where I think we're
going to have good and reasonably safe riding today.
What is your preference?
And then find out and I when you were just talking about how you gauge the the clients,
it's always tricky because some of them may not have skied that year or in a couple years.
And this is their big trip.
And you know, their memory of what they used to be able to do doesn't match up with reality.
And then all of a sudden they've got a pack on and it's really deep powder.
It's really tricky to gauge on your first day with the client or particularly the first
run.
You want to ease into it and then have a lot of different options so you can pivot quickly
within your safety guardrails of, okay, this is where we're going to find.
Reasonably good snow and reasonably safe snow that's appropriate for the clients and what's
going to give them good expectations.
But I really like an inclusive process where they're giving me feedback, try to give as
much information as you can before.
And then also setting the expectations of, hey, it's considerable with the PWL.
We are not going into avalanche training today.
I just want to get that out front.
That's just how it is right now.
Yeah.
I love the over cautious approach to setting those expectations.
And I think you're spot on anytime there's a persistent week later.
It's like, okay, heads up, you guys.
We got uncertainty in the snow pack and some potentially touchy conditions.
Yeah.
Set the bar low for their expectations.
And then I almost always find that we exceed those expectations and people end up having
a great day.
So yeah.
Well people are always going to pound their chest and talk a big game, but it's so impossible
if you've just ripped a whole face, even if it's not the scariest cool art ever.
If it's a chill, wide open snow field, but everyone just got to do unlimited turns, you
would have to be the most depressed person on earth to not have a great time doing it.
Yeah, don't tell me that's not fun.
Yeah, come on, man.
Like the reality is if we got dropped off on top of stuff that you see in like TGR or
matchstick or something, like all of us, myself included, would shit their pants.
We'd be like, hell you back, hell you back.
We're out of here.
Yeah.
You know, to echo, to pile on on that, if you look at the stats from Switzerland, I think
they've got something like 86% of avalanches for the fatalities are 35 degrees and over.
And you can have a lot of fun skiing a black diamond slope that's 30, 32, 33.
And skiing powder on a black diamond slope is a lot of fun and have a lot less stress.
Like if that was like one rule to live by, that's a pretty good one of, hey, if you've
got uncertainty, man, if you keep it under 35, you screen out a lot of your risk and
you can still have really good black diamond terrain or, you know, and then if you start
being like, oh, well, you know, let's, if we got a PWL and it's considerable, hey, let's
do a steep blue run today, skiing powder and beautiful setting with your friends.
You're like, man, that was a great day.
Yeah.
I think that's where kind of like aspect abbey is a great tool for people to utilize to kind
of bring about appropriate ski tours for the given conditions for that day, you know, and
I'll be, I'll be upfront.
Like I'm pretty skeptical of new technology that claims to keep us safe in the back country
because ultimately it's up to us, right?
And I think tools like aspect abbey help us stay in the guard rail, guard rails within
the guard rails.
Tools like utilizing a run list, even in a recreational setting help us do that as well.
But you know, ultimately every accident is a series of decisions and you kind of have
to be able to step back and gain bigger perspective throughout your day of how many holes in the
Swiss cheese are lining up, right?
Yeah.
And have like a rule of three, you know, like if, and it could be super outside factors
like background things in my life that are just limiting my, my ability to stay in the
present moment, you know, just kind of background noise in your life that might not be on your
A games.
So like if I, if I forget an essential item for my pack, that's kind of like a, that's
like a check.
That's like one strike for me and, and that kind of sets the tone for the day.
And then if I'm, you know, having trouble communicating with my partners, like we're
just not seeming to be on the same page, even like time trusted partners, you know, sometimes
it's just like the sauce isn't there for the day.
And that might be another, you know, strike and then getting a bunch of red flags out there,
cracking, collapsing, recent loading from wind or snow, you know, that might be another
one and, and kind of like trying to keep track of those, those strikes against, against the
day and then being really honest with that and, and taking a step back in my training
choices, given maybe those three strikes, I've kind of, I'd like to kind of like come
up with a list of kind of like these watch out situations.
I think it's termed personal disaster flags by some others, but yeah.
Yeah.
I heard that.
That's great.
To reflect back on you, you started with, you're like, Hey, if there's three strikes,
I'm going to scale way back.
That started with self assessment and then team assessment.
And the very last thing you talked about was snow assessment.
That's fascinating.
Right.
Yeah.
That's a very mental approach.
Yeah.
We're all humans and, and you look at any of these accidents and there's like numerous
human, human factors involved, right?
And ultimately that's the, maybe the hardest thing to control is ourselves, but it's, it's
the thing that we have the most control over.
Yeah.
It's pretty rare that it's a low danger day and we're doing everything reasonably conservative
and we get smoked, right?
It's like, what's the, the famous stats, like 90% of avalanche fatalities can be attributed
to human factors where we knew it was dangerous and somehow justified going into that.
And there, and, you know, McCammon's classic facets is, is a great acronym for helping
people remember that where you've got familiarity, acceptance, commitment, expert, Halo.
And then you've got, I think tracks is social proof.
And then the last one scarcity where you flip those last two letters, you know, those are
the classic Danny Conneman, Amos Tversky, human factor traps applied in an avalanche
context and repurposed and the really tricky part.
And I think this will be the next area.
I mean, this is all behavioral economics theory is how to pre-diagnose and treat that
because we're really good at identifying the causes of the disease, but not so much at
treating it right now.
That's pretty tough.
I don't know.
You got any things that you've used to, to help kind of treat those, whether it's in
the field or before you leave the house in your planning process?
One thing that I've come across lately is kind of like communication styles with your
partners.
And this is a bit of a broader topic that you riff on in terms of like choosing your partners
wisely.
And, you know, some of my best friends, like I can't ski with them because we just either
we egg each other on too much or we just have different communication styles.
And so I think like it's really important to pick your partners wisely and really be
honest about like if you're a good match or not.
And there's uncertainty in your group.
And if you have that uncertainty, then that's another flag to kind of listen to to scale
back your terrain selection.
But I think, yeah, I've seen this trend of just kind of like a lot of social skiing
where these groups get really big and communication just becomes really hindered within a group
of, you know, more than three or four people.
And it can be really hard to make consequential decisions.
But I got a little off topic there.
I think one tool that I've been trying to implement is like discussing with my partners
will want and won't.
So like I want to do this.
I will do this or I won't do this.
And just being really honest in your tour planning phase before you even hit the skin
track of like, nope, this is off off the table.
And that's essentially a run list.
But then kind of checking back in and kind of like will want won't like, how are you
feeling about this?
No, Dave Dave Dave's like, no, I won't ski this.
No, and we all need to respect that.
And Jeff, you might be like, well, I will ski this.
But Caleb's like, I want to ski this and kind of questioning our motivations around that.
I think can be really good reflection on the decisions that you're about to make and taking
giving that the time, right?
Like building time.
We talk about terrain margins all the time.
But like, what about time margins?
You know, like we're gonna be crammed so much shit into our lives these days that like
the last thing that we want to do is take, you know, 45 minutes to plan a tour at the
beginning of the day.
All of a sudden we're like one o'clock or something.
Nothing good happens after 10 in the mountains, right?
Like, like you kind of like build in these time buffers or if you're out with Jeff, I've
heard that you're, you know, definitely pack some extra batteries for your headlamp.
So many times, Jeff's like, it's gonna be two hours and like five hours later, we're
like on our second peak.
You can't he's undeniably stoked.
He's good at talking to stuff because he's pumped, but then you're like, yeah, I didn't
bring food for this.
It's good that it's consistent so that all my friends know.
Right.
Jeff, we're gonna have to check you here with your enthusiasm because, you know, your concept
of time is more in sync with maybe like Polynesian concept of like space and time.
Apparently, like some Polynesian cultures, the greeting isn't, hey, how's it going?
It's where have you come from?
It's very directional oriented and it's a navigation culture and that really resonates
with me, but like, I don't even own a watch.
Like that's kind of a telltale sign right there.
Yeah, but Jeff, you have one on your phone, dude.
Come on.
Don't even be on that high horse.
Like Caleb, wait, I want to, so I want to jump into something a little more macro because
I think you have another cool insights on this probably.
Um, you know, obviously you kind of perfectly segued us actually.
Uh, you know, Jeff and I have an opinion about where this industry is headed as far as, uh,
managing, you know, risk in the back country and that kind of stuff.
Like where are there trends that you've been seeing growing in like the forecasting world?
Um, like that you think are going to catch on or maybe things that are on the horizon.
I feel like you've probably been privy to some cool conversations in this, uh, in this
arena that maybe you could offer us a little insight on.
Like, where's the industry headed for, yeah, like how are we really forecasting in five
years?
Like what, what's this look like?
What's this whole thing?
I think, uh, one of the super pivotal moments was the release of the conceptual model of
model of avalanche hazard from Grant Statham and others that kind of creates a roadmap
to communicating hazard to the public, right, or within operations.
So, um, identifying what the problem is, where the problem is, the likelihood, sensitivity,
all leading into, okay, this is going to create, um, where our hazard level is for the day.
So much more of a roadmap than, than what it, I mean, not that it wasn't informed before,
but everybody is kind of trying to read off the same sheet of music, no matter where you're
at.
Um, and, and so a little bit more of a formulaic, um, approach to avalanche forecasting.
I think one thing that's pretty interesting and, and I'm hoping to get Pascal Haigli on
my podcast to talk about is, is forecaster uncertainty and how does the public, um, react
to a forecast that I put out where I say I have really low certainty in my forecast.
Because sometimes that's the case.
And in the past, you know, we kind of try to write that in, in a forecast discussion,
like look, this, this persistent week layer is pretty sporadic out here.
This is where we think it is, but you know, we don't have that much data on it and, and
we need more.
So our uncertainty is pretty high for this forecast and, and how the public will react
to that.
Um, you know, pulling the veil back a bit, you know, of, of like, yeah, we don't know
everything and we're not going to know everything.
Um, and, and it all comes back to like, there's only one way to use that uncertainty and that's
to buffer your terrain, bigger margins.
I wonder if, um, you know, can I just like add on that really quick?
Some of you, like you talk about, um, you know, like being a forecaster, it's super
hard.
Like you have a huge zone that you're basically like taking the temperature of and like you,
you can't know what every face is like, whatever aspects like, like there's no physically no
way for that to happen.
And something I, I've thought about a bit, like kind of moving into the future, you know,
like the new iPhones, you can text via satellite, you know, like all this kind of stuff.
I wonder if we'll start seeing a bit of a more decentralized approach, you know, where
the forecast is there.
And then throughout the day, you're getting these like actual live updates with geo data,
like where people are being sent in, like as it's happening, because they don't have
to wait to report it.
Maybe when they get back to the parking lot or whatever.
And you know, like maybe over time having, you know, like having data from years of people
reporting things on their phone, you know, like that'll give you guys a better idea of
like, Oh, you know, like this area tends to be a little trickier.
This area tends to be pretty reliable.
You know, like I'm curious to see if you think, you know, like maybe that will play into how
the forecast looks in the future and like helping people navigate.
Yeah.
I think it will.
And I think it has, you know, I think just the.
There's been an increase in public observations at all Avalanche centers, you know, in the
last five to 10 years, like people are people are starting to understand that they can help
inform the forecast.
And especially, you know, like where I have a forecast, we have four different zones.
And you know, two of them have semi popular, you know, backcountry skiing areas.
And two of them are more snow machine based, but we operate in like a super data sparse
environment for our forecast center.
And so we totally rely on these public observations.
And I agree that like in the future, if there's more direct ways for that to happen in real
time, and I like how you guys have incorporated that into aspect Abby for your own, you know,
like for me personally, to be able to track the red flags that I'm seeing on my ski tour
on aspect Abby is super helpful.
And then that kind of like trims some of the available terrain based on those red flags.
And in the same way, I think, I think in people are doing it on social media, you know, tagging
Utah Avalanche center or whatever when they're out there and they're videoing, when loading
that's happening or cracking or collapsing, stuff like that.
So I think the bigger centers that have a bit more of a population base, I think that's
ongoing and super helpful to inform the forecast.
Yeah, I think another area that is maybe going to we're going to see a lot of advent is both
flexible forecast zones, which Colorado is using now and Avalanche Canada.
And so instead of trying to like conform to for Avalanche problems to fit into a certain
box, kind of like like it just doesn't depend on geographic lines necessarily.
Of course, certain loading patterns and stuff do have very much trained influence.
But you know, the idea of flexible zones, I think is going to catch on and then more
modeling, you know, like I have been resistant to AI and kind of like I think that the computers
are going to win eventually beat us.
It would seem that way.
But you know, like the.
It can keep us alive.
Right.
Or sky.
Totally.
We're going to we're going to see admins in that with with snowpack modeling and and some
AI influence, I think, into our Avalanche forecast in the future.
I'm not sure what it looks like because again, I kind of resist it.
But that's right.
Riff off your question.
You know, I think a real simple way is my God, the push notifications, like everything
I turn them off on my phone, I'm like, I just want to know if somebody's calling me.
That's it.
Don't intrude on my mental space.
However, I would be more than happy to get a push notification from my local AV center
or from aspect to AV that said, hey, somebody just had a skier triggered Avalanche.
Here's the elevation aspect, maybe even a photo.
And here's the observer and we're.
GDS location.
Yeah, to considerable, it's not moderate, you know, new shit has come to light to quote
the big Lebowski.
You know, that kind of happened two seasons ago, in Crested Butte in real time.
It was the first warm up of the year in April.
And there's an indicator slope right across from the school in town and it went D3 to
the ground.
And it was like, oh, you know, wet slabs are notoriously difficult to get the timing right
on.
And it happened two days before the forecast center thought it was going to go.
And they updated the forecast in real time.
But unless you saw that Avalanche and thought, oh, let's go see what the Abby Center is saying,
you know, you weren't getting a push notification.
And I think that could be a really interesting way to harness technology in a very beneficial
way where, you know, a lot of us are touring outside of cell range, but that cell range
is getting cell coverage is getting better and better every year.
And if you bump up above tree line, we often have enough to get a text.
And then like what you were saying, Dave, with the new satellite capabilities coming
with the iPhone, new generations, or if you're hooked up through your garment in reach, you
can get it no matter what.
Yeah.
Is that something that's on the radar for aspect, Abby?
Like I know that you can identify red flags while you're in the field and that's just like
kind of influences the shading on my phone.
But like, what if I'm out there and you guys are out there?
And I noticed a red flag.
Is that something that's coming down the line for aspect, Abby?
Like you could get a push notification that I'm seeing signs of instability.
Yeah, is it?
Yeah, it is.
I can't give you a date of when it's going to come in.
It's all dependent on investment and how many dev team members we can, you know, change
of their desks and crank away on code.
But we've gotten that idea from a lot of folks like Waze or Google Maps asks for your input
to update.
Is there a speed trap here?
Is there an accident here?
Is that car moved off the side of the road that was blocking, blowing in traffic?
And the same idea.
And I love that the community is so engaged with this because so much of this stuff is
like, you know, I've got some ideas of what I think should be the ideal app.
But when you get information from hundreds of people at this point and input and catalog
all that on a digital sticky note board, you're like, oh my God, the ideas here are endless.
And so, you know, real simple, here's a couple ideas.
Let's say your Bluetooth thing through your Garmin in reach so you can send a text no
matter where you could send your observation.
Hey, we just skier triggered a D2.
Here's the aspect elevation.
Here's a photo.
You know, here's the run out, blah, blah, blah, all the pertinent information that goes
to the Avi Center immediately.
So then they can update anything they need on their end.
And then if you allow push notifications, you could see, oh, shit, this is coming from
Caleb Merrill.
You're like, oh, this guy's not he's a guide.
He's an educator.
He's a forecaster, former ski patroller.
Okay, I might put more stock into that.
Or you might say, oh, that's because Caleb's up in the alpine, but we're down deep in the
forest where it's a different snowpack and we're not exposed to the wind loading that
he's seeing.
And then you could choose how you want to use it.
But I think that kind of crowdsourcing of Intel, that the Avi Centers are constantly
being like, hey, we need your data, please, even if you didn't see anything, let us know
at the end of your tour.
Let's cut the time lag on that and get it in real time.
I love that idea of us all pooling information.
And even if you're a layperson, you know, the way they verify the forecast, they're obvious
clues that my mom would be like, oh, yeah, we just got a collapse.
Or yeah, we're seeing rapid warming.
Those are really easy bits of information to share with a push of a button that would
take five seconds.
I'd really like the idea of that.
I think we could really increase the accuracy of the forecast and of how we manage risk
in real time.
Well, Jeff, that's something you guys wanted to have in there too, right?
Whereas like, just have a verify the forecast pop up in the middle of your tour, no matter
what, just to kind of remind people to like, hey, check in.
Yeah.
Like right now you got to think to verify the forecast, which let's be honest, a lot of
times, like if Kayla makes it down here, we're going to be having great conversation and
psych to show them some beautiful mountain terrain.
And we might very well forget to verify the forecast even as professionals.
And I certainly noticed with lay people or when you teach an avi course, you know, the
cognitive load of just being on a tour is so high that there's not a lot of extra bandwidth
to be like, oh, yeah, wait, all those checklists, I need to go through them.
So that's coming on the roadmap is there'll be auto prompts to be like, oh, you've been
going for 30 minutes.
It's time to verify the forecast.
What do you see in out there?
So that I think it's a great critique that people have of, hey, phones are really distracting
in the back country.
But there's a flip side of that.
The sword has two edges of how can we use the phone to engage people with their environment
and make the critical observations that normally they're not going to remember to do?
Yeah, I really like that.
And I like how you touched on submitting observations of pertinent negatives too.
So like if, you know, I think a really good skill for anybody to develop is get in the
habit of debriefing your day.
And part of debriefing your day should be submitting an observation and it aids you
in being able to synthesize what you saw.
And I think you ask anybody who submits regular observations to their avalanche center, they
probably have a really good handle on what's going on in the snowpack, like if every tour
or every other tour they're submitting observations, it's just going to give you a better idea
of if the forecast has been verified or if you can verify the forecast and other questions
that you're looking to answer in your subsequent tours, right?
So even if you're not seeing signs of instability, you know, and I think there's a resistance
to people submitting observations because they don't want to give up their secret stash
or this or that.
And you know, you don't have to get super specific, just an aspect elevation, general
location within the range is super helpful.
Yeah, helps me a lot to see any observation, especially with pictures when I'm writing
a forecast.
Yeah.
Do you have a wish list for the three different jobs that you do?
Like do you have your blue sky vision, your like dream tool that you'd love to have for
avalanche forecasting?
One for students you're teaching and one for when you're guiding or, you know, that have
your colleagues have?
That's a good question, Jeff.
I think with my forecasting, I just reach for more information and that you got to be
careful what you ask for because, you know, you get to a point where you're getting too
much information and my little brain just can't process all of it.
But, you know, my wish is just more snow tell sites, right?
Whereas how much snow has landed and where is it?
And again, with wind as well, vanamometers, we operate in a pretty data starved environment.
And actually, I got the idea from Zach Guy to put up little game cameras, so like little
Wi-Fi game or cellular data game cameras with a snow stake.
And it's just kind of like a low tech approach to being able to have a little remote snow
tell site.
Oh, yeah.
I've been kind of geeking out on that and getting those around the range where I forecast.
I think for what was your other question, for guiding tools?
Yeah, like just for all the different hats you wear, like what would be, you know, like
a cool tool or new approach or I don't know, you know, just blue sky vision of like, if
you could design something, what would you want as a forecaster?
So you're saying, hey, more data, we're in a data starved forecast zone and the game
cameras are like instant snow tell sites that are a couple hundred bucks that we can do.
What would you want for guiding and what would you want maybe for your students that you're
teaching?
Yeah, I think for guiding, you know, honestly, it's the, we already have it.
It's the run list keeps me, keeps me on the tracks, you know, like, and really utilizing
that to its fullest extent.
And you know, and there are some workarounds for the run list, you know, I've worked for
operations that have yellow and, you know, it's not just green or red, but yellow has
a qualifier of like this run is closed unless the corn has failed or unless we saw, you
know, a D2 avalanche, if it's already avalanche or something like that, or guide consensus
in the field, you know, after numerous relevant snow pits that have been dug on a similar
aspect in elevation.
But I think, you know, I really do think that the run list and I've worked for operations
that utilize run lists and I've worked for operations that don't utilize run lists for
various reasons.
And I always feel better when I'm working off of a run list, especially when it's peer
reviewed, you know, when I'm banging my head together with a couple other guides at the
beginning of the day, and we're coming up with some consensus around that run list.
And that can be tricky, you know, that can drag the guide meeting on for too long sometimes
and discussions can get kind of heated sometimes based on people's desires and opinions.
And I think my approach to that is like when it's just, when it's too contentious, we just
close it, you know.
And if you can get everybody on board for that, like we can go get more information,
we can open it tomorrow.
But trying to take that gray area away and not lean on that, that maybe yellowing of
runs and just make it a clear distinction.
I think that's, that's my ideal tool for, for ski guiding.
I think that's great takeaway for the public too of, hey, if there's not consensus in your
group, maybe like leave that for another day, and then the operations that I've worked at
that were where you have yellow, it's because we're using explosives.
And we can send out snow safety team, they can go throw ski cuts, throw bombs and test.
And that's the clearly defined parameters of, hey, we're not worried about a PWL that's
60 CMs down, we're worried about surface wind slab, and we're estimating somewhere between
six to 12 inches deep.
So we'll throw some hand charges and we'll do some ski cuts, and then we'll open it to
the public.
That's the yellow.
Yeah, I love that.
And like Erwin's a great example of where you guys live, where there's an operation
that does that and has an explosives permit.
So yeah, it's always nice to be able to throw a couple of shots, you know, to either verify
the forecast or flush something out.
But obviously we don't all have that in our arsenal of tools every day.
I think for, for explosives, so many times we're like, oh, for sure, this is going to
go.
And you throw a bunch of charges where you put a big info 10 pounder on there and you're
like, how did that not go?
And then you're like, oh, we got two charges left that you've already made them up.
So you got to burn them.
You're like, well, this isn't going to go, but it'll help stabilize the slope and disrupt
the layers in the future.
So let's, and then D two and a half, you're like, nobody saw that coming in morning meeting.
That was a surprise.
Yeah, there's almost no better way to like understand or see spatial variability in action
than like a bunch of no result charges thrown and then one random charge pulls the whole
thing out, you know?
Yeah, like the fifth charge on the slope next to the rock, it's that, you know, super weak
spot, the landmine.
The other charges didn't do out anything.
And you're like, oh, we just nuked the heck out of this slope.
And then someone's like, oh, I got my last charge.
Okay.
And then the whole thing rips and you're like, whoa, full of that variability.
Yeah.
Really impressive.
Sorry, I cut you off.
What are you about to say?
I think Dave had something there.
Oh, I was just going to say, and that folks is why being the last person down to run is
not a guarantee of safety.
Yeah, absolutely.
I think, you know, for in the education realm, I think like the, the best tool that we can
impart on people is to develop good habits, right?
And have a repeatable process and, and communication, pick your partners.
I know this isn't, that's not really like one tool.
I mean, aspect, AVI aspect, AVI is right there, you know, download aspect, AVI and start using
it and that's going to help you to develop some good habits out there that are going
to inform your tour planning and set you up for a successful, safe day.
That's, that's our goal.
That's how easy it is.
Yeah.
And what I'm really excited for, I think we talked about is the run list coming out
where it'll be all the classic run lists for your favorite areas.
Nobody's secret stashes, just publicly stuff.
And so that's your run list.
If it's in the red, hey, that's high risk.
And if it's in the clear, great.
That gets you in there.
But just like when you're guiding, just cause it says it's low risk on the run list doesn't
mean that you turn your brain off.
You're like, Oh, I'm going to use my toolbox in the app.
I'm going to measure the run out angle.
I'm going to use my drop in checklist.
I'm going to verify the slope angle on the field, verify the forecast, all that stuff.
It just gets you in the door and like, okay, we've got 10 runs that we can work with here
in this zone.
All right, let's go out and find out and manage the uncertainty with the tools in the app.
Yeah, and I think for folks that are in areas that maybe, especially with the AspectAvi
app that don't have this run list that's coming down the pike, now is the time.
And I don't know when this podcast is going to come out, but it's October 21st.
And now is the time to be doing your homework for the season and investigating options for
your frequented back and tree touring areas and get on Google Earth or, you know, use
the last nine days of Fatmap that are here.
I think Fatmap's about to go away, but I love Fatmap for like terrain visualization.
Google Earth does a pretty good job too, but really like start to create a run list for
areas that you go and start to really dissect what that terrain actually looks like.
Look at the slope angles, look at the run out angles, and come up with, you know, create
a folder on your computer and start getting aerial imagery if you can do that, especially
with snow cover.
Try and get pictures of that terrain with avalanches in them.
Look where the frequent runners are.
And all of that is just going to lead you to be able to minimize your exposure when it's
warranted.
But as a procrastinator, I often will put that off, right?
And so I think now is like these are kind of rainy fall days or like the perfect time
to really like dig into that and create your own terrain atlas and your run list for areas
that you go.
I think that's time well spent for sure.
Yeah.
I'm always shocked this time of year when I'm starting to look for grassy slopes for early
season skiing.
And it is true.
We live in the Rocky Mountains.
And when you look at it now, you're like, geez, man, there is so much rock and ledge
and rollovers in there.
And you know, from scraping your skis or wrecking yourself on rocks perspective, but also from,
oh, these are all going to be trigger points, stress points in the snowpack.
And particularly like the anthracite range here, it's known as the anthracite mountain
resort because so many people go there to tour because it gets great snow and it's good
access.
But when you look at East Bowl where we've had a couple fatalities over the years and
numerous close calls, my first human triggered avalanche was right there on a pair of TeleSkis
with three pin bindings and fish scales.
You can see why because it's so leggy and there's so many alders in there.
And you're like, oh, this is just a breeding ground for facets.
And it takes a ton of snow, like more than two meters to really bridge all that stuff
and get out of that temperature gradient regime where you're just going to be breeding facets
on these really steep slopes that also tend to get wind loaded.
Yeah.
And you know, many, many areas in the West have seen their first snowfall already and
it's important to track those where the snow melts and where it hangs out, right?
Like what you're speaking of of the shady high North aspects where some of this snow
is probably going to stick around for the duration.
I would imagine in Colorado and start your snowpack as it often does, as weak sugary
facets near the ground.
I'm always like blown away by, and it's understandable, but how people are just chomping at the bit
early season, right?
Like going out and wrecking themselves on low season snowpack or early season low snowpack.
And then like they hang their skis up and the boards like in early April and they're
ready to mountain bike.
And it's like, wait a second, like April, May, June, it's like some of the best skiing,
the coverage is there, stability is there, days are longer.
So that always like kind of blows my mind.
And I think we'll see, maybe we'll see some trends shift with just changing climate and
different weather patterns that are coming in.
We're certainly already seeing that play out in the snowpack with longer stretches of high
pressure and more intense time periods where persistent weak layers can develop and then
big intense snowfalls that create avalanches.
So it'll be interesting to see how the trends over time kind of like shift our patterns
and use either earlier or later in the season.
Yeah.
What are some prep things that you're going to be doing to ramp up for guiding or for forecasting?
Yeah, I think that's a great question, Jeff.
But like I said, kind of just like investigating different terrain options.
We're super lucky out in Northeastern Oregon.
We have a vast amount of terrain that's kind of uncharted and has been unguided.
And so we're excited about offering some new traverses, especially in the springtime and
kind of so.
Oh, wow.
That's cool.
Yeah.
And personally for me, like I'm looking at getting deeper into the range in the spring
and doing some traverses.
So I think just investigating terrain options, it's cool.
In my career, I've bounced around a little bit and it's always fun to like get to a new
zone and really dissect it, start to expand my field of vision, whatever, four or five
years I've been out in Northeastern Oregon.
Like I have a pretty good handle on a lot of the core terrain, but I'm excited to kind
of expand that view and start to explore some areas that are uncharted for me.
So yeah, putting the work in to look at different terrain options for that and kind of expand
the scope of where we ski guide is an exciting venture for sure.
And is that going to be some like hot to hot touring or like camping touring or what are
you looking at?
Yeah, that, you know, we offer like a traverse from the Southern Malawas up to the Northern
Malawas in the spring.
We usually do two of those.
And that's all camping.
Yeah.
We have some mids and snow camping.
Hopefully had a nice weather window there.
And there are a number of ski camps in the Malawas, yurts and huts that are out there.
And you could pretty easily connect some of those up.
There's kind of a big stretch in the deep in the wilderness that you probably have to
bivy for a night between a couple of shelters.
Oh, wow.
Yeah.
There's some cool opportunities there.
Not many people around.
It sounds really cool.
And if folks wanted to do a tour with you out there, do one of those traverses or day
trip, how would they get old?
Yeah, I work mostly for my friends Victor and Kelly McNeil.
They own Eagle Cap Mountain Guides.
And so we operate a yurt out of the Western Malawas there and offer day skiing and yurt
base skiing access by machines up to the yurt and then ski touring from there.
The yurt's kind of like right on the edge of the wilderness boundary.
So we use the machines to get in there and then ski tour for the rest of the week.
And that's just eaglecapmountainguides.com.
So you can check out some offerings there.
Pretty cool place if you've never ventured out there, kind of off the radar, just like
we like it.
Is it kind of similar to touring in Little Cottonwood Canyon on a powder day, something
like that?
That's pretty hard to beat, Jeff.
I mean...
I've been for a people use, like finding a parking spot at six in the morning.
Sounds like you can't see anybody out there.
Yeah, you got to reserve the parking out in Union, Oregon.
You don't see many people out there.
We hardly ever see anybody in our ski terrain that we guide in that is not being guided.
Or if we do, then we know them, right?
Yeah.
That's cool.
And part of that is just access, like it's private parking to gain access to this point
in the range.
So there's been a guidebook that got put out recently that is a bit contentious, a non-local
that did a lot of aerial photography.
It's a great resource.
I do like looking at the book, but from a risk management standpoint, it's a bit akin
to just eye candy, right?
It's not giving really good beta.
It's almost giving people enough information just to get themselves in trouble, which I
feel conflicted about with people putting information out like that.
So it has put the area on the radar a bit more, but yeah, it's still pretty quiet out
there.
I've definitely learned to appreciate more and more of the solitude aspect.
Like after so many decades guiding out of Chomany and the Alps in general, people are
like, why did you come back here?
And I'm like, well, solitude is part of the experience.
And I'm just over waiting in lines at trams and stuff and I'd much rather just go out
someplace where we're not going to see anybody.
Or like you said, if we do, someone we know, I'm like, oh, hey, share a little thermos
hot cocoa.
Let's hang out.
I really enjoy that aspect of it too.
Yeah.
Well, Jeff, to be fair, you just admitted to me like three days ago that you pretty much
never skied any resort in Colorado.
So you haven't even seen crowds yet, dude.
I know.
Resolute.
I walked 100 feet to the stop sign, take the bus up to Crest Abuse ski area.
Yeah.
I was not into traveling to go wait in lines or get stuck in traffic.
So I think the only places I've skied are probably like Monarch.
I did go in there because it's super chill.
Maybe a day at Telluride and that might be it.
Well, we're talking about going to Wolf Creek tomorrow.
Are you in there?
I'm like, well, it's super chill.
Yeah.
Great local food in the cabin.
They're opening this weekend.
I heard.
Yeah.
Open in tomorrow.
So we're talking about going down.
Yeah.
20.
Yeah.
Something like 26 inches out of the storm.
Nice.
Yeah.
Finally, I was like winter here.
It's been kind of tiptoeing around like solid fall weather for a week and now it's like
woke up the snow on the ground.
So I think we're headed the right direction.
Yeah.
Yeah, I was seeing some snow shed off of Jeff's roof there back in the background.
Yeah.
I'm going to go up for a quick ski up in the past that after we get off of here, grab
some lunch and then take the dog up so he doesn't totally hate me for not playing in
the snow today.
Well, on that note, we could probably wrap this up.
Caleb, thank you so much for doing this.
It's cool talking to you, man.
You're an insightful dude for sure.
And I like hearing kind of the way you think about it from someone who's had so many high-level
conversations in the industry.
Really cool.
Yeah.
And Caleb, one last question.
Yeah.
Are there any projects that you'd like to share with the audience and bring their attention
to?
Yeah.
I guess a couple that are kind of front of mind for me are kind of like, one, just supporting
your Avalanche Center, right?
Like there's been a bit of a scare recently with the 2025 temp seasonal hiring freeze.
I don't know if you guys know about that, but...
From the government.
From the United States Forest Service, yeah.
And I'm not sure exactly where it's at right now, but they're saying that they were going
to not hire any temporary seasonals other than fire essential staff for 2025, which could
significantly affect Avalanche Centers, right?
There's 14 Forest Service Avalanche Centers.
There's nine additional nonprofit centers or state-run centers.
And I think it just highlights the need for community support of these Avalanche Centers
and supporting your friends group, friends of the Avalanche Centers that can kind of step
in to fill that void if the federal government kind of drops the ball on being able to hire
some of these essential employees, what we see as essential employees for sure.
So yeah, just a plug for supporting your local Avalanche Center.
I think the Avalanche Alliance is doing some great work.
I don't know if you're familiar with that organization.
It's a motorized organization.
Created by some folks at Climb and Aerie has a big part in that too.
Like this last year, they raised something like $80,000.
I think $71,000 in grants were awarded to different Avalanche Centers.
And many of those are nonprofit Avalanche Centers that don't get funding from the Forest Service.
So they raise money for Avalanche Centers to expand education, bring about more weather
stations and just general outreach to the motorized community.
So I think some folks in the ski world are a little bit unaware of all the support that
comes from the motorized community that's helping their Avalanche Centers to function
at a higher level.
And then the last one would be the Avalanche Resilience Project and the American Avalanche
Association in general is such a connector of our community and kind of the web that
keeps many of us together and connected.
And so all of the projects that are ongoing by the A3, whether it's looking at pro and
rec education, trying to refine that and make it better.
And one of the projects that I specifically like is the Avalanche Resilience Project,
which is like mental health initiatives for workers in the industry, funding for team
trainings and if you're struggling with mental health and work in the industry, there's money
there for you to go talk to somebody.
So I think that's a huge step in the right direction as an industry as a whole because
this job can take its toll on you for sure no matter what aspect you're working at it
from.
Those are a few that I'm kind of like jazzed up on that I think people should know about.
There's a lot of others out there as well.
Well linked those for sure.
Yeah.
Cool.
And I think a lot of lay people who are outside the industry aren't familiar with the work
of the AAA, but they're like the umbrella organization governing body for everything
Avalanche and connect all the different spokes to the wheel and provide the overarching guidelines
for the recreational class you're going to take.
And so all those are AAA approved for hopefully.
Yeah, they're the ones that set standards and say, hey, you need to cover these in your
recreational program.
Avalanche course, how you do that, that can be flexible, but you need to hit these points.
Yeah, it's definitely advised to like take your Avalanche education from an A3 recognized
provider, right?
Like they're hitting the standards.
Yeah.
Cool.
Well, this has been super fun.
I'm excited to be on the other side of the mic and yeah, had a blast.
Hell yeah.
Thanks for coming on.
Obviously, one last plug, you know, the Avalanche Hour podcast, if anyone hasn't heard of it
like me, go check it out.
It's a wealth of information and you got it on your last words.
I think one of the ways that Caleb, you do a good job of sharing information is through
stories that resonate.
You know, I spend a lot of time looking at data, but I don't remember that.
What I remember is stories that have an emotional resonance and I think that's the thread that
connects all the podcasts and guests that you have.
They're these stories that stick with you and add to your Avalanche processing power
and when you're out there in the field.
So thanks for that.
Yeah.
Well, I'm glad if it's working.
Keep doing it.
Yeah, and if you ever find yourself in Colorado, let's go skiing.
Yeah, let's do it.
I'll be sick.
I look forward to it.
Thanks so much.
I gotta make it back to you soon.
Yeah.
Yeah, we'd love that.
All right, guys.
We'll chat later.
Take it easy.
Thanks.
Have a good one.
Appreciate it.