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We get this sort of non-event feedback all the time when we're out there.

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You know, we ski a line, it doesn't have a latch, and so we think,

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hey, I just made a great decision.

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That slope was totally stable.

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But as we well know, sometimes it's the tenth skier down the slope.

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Somebody finds a sweet spot, and so it's really hard.

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You can spend all these years out there doing it, thinking you're making great decisions.

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And then the one time you don't make a great decision.

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It becomes incredibly obvious.

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I was just having this conversation with a colleague of mine who has not had a lot of formal avalanche education,

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but has a huge amount of backcountry experience, and suddenly had an avalanche involvement recently,

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and it just completely rattled her, you know, because they were completely surprised by it.

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And I think, unfortunately, that's the problem.

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You and I spoke about this in the past, but, you know, it's the definition of a wicked learning environment.

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It's somewhere where you don't get feedback on your decisions on a regular basis.

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So it's really hard to know whether or not you're making good decisions.

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Welcome to All Aspects, a podcast where we explore, discuss, and celebrate adventure culture and outdoor lifestyle.

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It is our mission to educate, inform, and entertain our fellow adventurers about the inherent risks that surround us

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every time we go outside to play, and to provide you with the knowledge and tools

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to help you do the things you love the most and the safest way possible.

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All Aspects is brought to you by AspectAvy.

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AspectAvy is on a mission to save lives by making avalanche safety simple.

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It's the only app that tells you where the high and low risk zones are for today's avalanche danger.

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With a suite of built-in tools like forecast verification, slope meter, and gear checklist,

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AspectAvy is the new safety standard for avalanche risk management.

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Remember, there are dozens of apps that get you into the back country,

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but there's only one that's designed to bring you home, and that's AspectAvy.

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Go to aspectavvy.com to learn more or download the app to start your 30-day free trial.

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Thank you, AspectAvy, for making this show possible, and thank you for listening.

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All right, let's get to the show.

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All right, welcome to the All Aspects podcast, where we talk about how to do dangerous things in the back country

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the safest way possible.

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And I'm really excited for today's guest, longtime colleague, and we don't see each other very often,

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but I really resonate with this guy quite a bit.

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He's got a big brain on him, and great personality as well as Larry Goldie.

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Larry lives up in the North Cascades.

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He's an AMGA, an IFMGA guide, and we went through the guide exams together at about the same time,

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got to know each other there.

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He's an avalanche expert.

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He's been teaching rec courses for two decades now and pro courses for over a decade.

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And then he's also the snow safety director at North Cascade Heliskeen.

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And he also wears a lot of different hats.

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He's a dad as well.

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And he's also a coach for mountain athletes at EVOC for the last couple of years.

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And let's dive right in.

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Larry, welcome.

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Thanks for joining us.

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Yeah, thanks for having me, Jeff.

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Good to be here.

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Yeah.

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Hey, softball question to start.

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Okay.

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You've lived a life of adventure for many decades now.

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What was it that attracted you to this lifestyle and then this career?

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You know, it's a funny question.

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I had somewhat of an improbable path, but in high school, I grew up in New Jersey, so

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kind of kid of the suburbs, race BMX bikes.

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In high school, I fell in with this crew of deadheads, people that were traveling around

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to see the Grateful Dead.

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And so we would go on tour.

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We would like print stickers and graphic design class in high school and like literally selling

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stickers, selling fireworks, like subsidize our ways to go follow the dead around.

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And right when I graduated high school, I had this Volkswagen bus and we drove all the

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way across country to go see the Grateful Dead in Ventura, California.

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And I had just blown the engine on the bus like days before and I had this guy call me

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put in a new engine in my driveway.

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And so we're like a day behind schedule to leave on the trip.

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So we start driving.

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There's three of us.

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One person driving, one person navigating, one person sleeping.

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And we drove 24 seven and brand new Volkswagen air cooled engine.

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We would pull over on the side of the road, change the oil every thousand miles.

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And we roll in like 15 minutes before the show is supposed to start.

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And and somebody's like, Hey, we go into the canceled show and we're like, what?

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You know, like this is 1986.

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So there's no cell phones, no internet.

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Like we hadn't heard anything about the show being canceled.

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So we wind up turns out Jerry Garcia went into a diabetic coma and they canceled a bunch

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of shows.

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So we're suddenly out of luck.

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We met up with a friend who lived in Southern California and he's like, Hey, you guys, let's

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go up to Sequoia National Park.

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And so we drove up to Sequoia National Park and camp there and we're hiking around every

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day hanging out amongst the Sequoia trees.

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And I was just like, Oh my God, I would have driven across country just to come here.

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And it was on that trip.

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I was like, I want to spend my life in places that are as beautiful as this.

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Like here, I'm, you know, kid from the suburbs back East.

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And like, I'm laying on the ground at night looking up at like the most incredible sky

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I've ever seen.

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And you know, just the mountains.

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I was just so blown away that I, you know, that put me on my path where I was like, I

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want to make a living hanging out in places like this.

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So I'll have to accident.

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Say, yeah, right?

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If Jerry, Jerry managed his blood sugar better, you might not be a mountain.

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There might have been some drugs involved.

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I don't know.

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For Jerry, not for me.

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I gotta say.

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Yeah, yeah, of course not.

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Of course not.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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No experience psychonauts have ever been on the podcast here.

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I gotta say.

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So you know, that sounds like a really interesting adventure.

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And it kind of reminds me of like my like kind of early trips out West when I was in college.

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And I think we like flew into San Francisco, stayed with a friend in Berkeley and then

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we hitchhiked out to Yosemite, which took like three days to tap and then just like

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camping the dirt all summer and climbed our faces off.

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And literally someone would read the John Long How to Rock Climb book and yell up at

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the leader.

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Oh yeah, I had some early adventures like that.

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My first time, I remember my very first lead was in Yosemite and I didn't know anything

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about runners.

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You know, I bought a used rack of like mostly stoppers and some hexes.

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And I didn't know you're supposed to put slings on these things.

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And like I'm pulling over onto the ledge at the top of the pitch and I looked down and

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like all but one of my pieces had pulled out just from rope drag.

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Oh my gosh, you know, it's better you didn't know until the end, right?

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Oh my gosh, you know, I'm a little bit envious of folks who are learning to get into climbing

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and skiing now because there's so many more resources available and opportunities like

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I didn't even know like mountain guiding was a job and it would have been a lot better

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to hire a guide or do a course with a mountain club or something like that instead of like,

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oh, the trial and error method when you're dealing with life and death consequences.

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It's kind of a small miracle still here.

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Yeah, yeah, I know.

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Thank goodness for guardian angels.

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And I think you and I are raising young kids were like, man, I hope that guardian angels

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still in place.

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I'm kind of relieved my daughter is very casual about skiing and climbing.

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She's just like, I gotta take it or leave it.

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I'm just like, hey, that's great.

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No big deal.

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And then as a follow up here, so it's pretty interesting that adventure you described like

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there's so many unknown parts of it.

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And it sounds like it was a bit touch and go whether the van would even make it out there

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and then no idea that the shows had been canceled and then just like pivot into a new itinerary

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and just like all these happy accidents.

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What, what is what does adventure mean to you?

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What is it that attracts you to it and what are some things you associate with it or how

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would you define it?

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Yeah, you know, it's funny.

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It kind of it brings me right back to those years.

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I had no idea this was like my informal training as a mountain guide, but all those years of

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traveling with the Grateful Dead, like we were constantly having adventures.

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There was the show, but it was the travel in between.

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You know, the thing I used to say about driving a Volkswagen bus is you just never ever knew

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if you were going to get somewhere or not.

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And I wound up sleeping in so many crazy places.

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Remember one time going to these shows with a buddy and a friend of his who had I had never

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met before and he had a Volkswagen van and it blows up on the side of the road.

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He gets out looks in the engine compartment.

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He's like, well, what are you guys waiting for, grab your stuff, get your thumbs out there.

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And like in less than five minutes, he just makes the decision to abandon his van on the

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side of the road and go for this like four day trip.

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Like he didn't even hardly think about it.

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And you know, we grab put sleeping bags under our arms, backpacks on and and sure enough,

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we just like slept on the ground in the parking lot and we ran into people that got us a ride

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home and just that I think from a lot of those early adventures, I just developed this appreciation

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for not knowing exactly what was going to happen.

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You know, you kind of have a loose plan, but you know, it's that to me, it's like the joy

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of travel, whether it's mountain travel or foreign travel.

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It's just that the element of uncertainty of it all that that keeps you on your toes.

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And I feel like it sort of it brings out the best in people because you just you don't know

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what's going to happen and you have to be ready to pivot and adjust to whatever circumstances

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you're in.

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And yeah, nowadays, you know, I feel like as a guide, I like to take people on adventures,

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but I want a lot more confidence in the outcome.

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So there's a little there's always, you know, we always deal with a certain amount of uncertainty,

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but you know, we build in margins.

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So we're sure we can have some uncertainty and still bring everyone home safely at the

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end of the day.

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But I think a friend of mine once wrote a book about the elements of adventure, which

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I think he really kind of nailed, which was, you know, it's it starts with high endeavor,

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but I think it's, you know, it's a goal that is challenging for people.

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And then there is that element of uncertainty, the outcome of the trip is uncertain.

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And there's good companionship.

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And then a tall diversity.

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And I feel like, yeah, those are all like truly the elements of adventure.

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And you know, you got to have all those in there.

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And you take anyone away.

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We've all been out there with people that have low tolerance for adversity.

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And it's like, man, I'm killing this trip for everybody.

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It reminds me of like JFK's moonshot speech, where he's like, we choose to do these things

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not because they're easy, but because they are hard.

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And it will be the test of our ingenuity, our commitment, our perseverance.

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And I'm like, yeah, that's what I'm signing up for.

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Yeah, agreed.

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Yeah.

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I do want to back up a little bit and just say, hey, none of this is scripted.

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So I had no idea you were going to go there and that the Grateful Dead were instrumental

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in your life of adventure.

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And I don't want to leave the audience with the idea that you're like this trippy, dippy

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deadhead just winging from hip.

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I think one of the things that I love about talking with you and bouncing ideas with colleagues

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is that you're a real critical thinker.

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You're constantly asking why.

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And this notion of best practices, a lot of people feel like it's a destination.

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Oh, we're doing best practices.

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We arrived.

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And it's like, no, no, no, those are constantly evolving.

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And I always see you kind of pushing for better, pushing for better.

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And be like, hey, that's great what we're doing now, but how can we optimize this?

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How can we make it safer, simpler, more enjoyable, higher rewards, that kind of stuff.

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And I think that your approach to risk really resonates with me.

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And that's one of the reasons why I want to have you on the podcast.

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So I just want to clear up any misconceptions that listeners might have.

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If you hire Larry as a mountain guide, he's going to pick you up in his Volkswagen bus

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and you may or may not make it to the trailhead.

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That is not the case at all.

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Yeah, the formative years, but it feels like another lifetime ago.

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And that's honestly what makes it a funny story is that it was an unlikely entrance to this

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industry.

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But yeah, some great adventures.

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Now I drive highly reliable vehicles and a little more of a plan when I take off.

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On a trip.

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Even if I do break down, I don't have to just abandon my car.

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Do they have triple A for helicopters?

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And that might be a good segue.

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Maybe you could contrast.

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What's a day in your life like at North Cascade, Helly skiing, where as the snow saved dirt,

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you know, there's a quote from the big Lebowski where they tell the dude, hey, her life is

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in your hands, dude.

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And he's like, no, no, no, no, no, don't say that because he doesn't want the responsibility.

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But it is a huge amount of responsibility on you because you're charged with keeping

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your guide team safe, but also keeping the public safe.

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And I'm guessing you probably have like families with kids out there.

230
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Occasionally we do.

231
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:50,160
Yeah.

232
00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:56,120
So we typically, we start every day just by explaining to the guests, okay, we've got

233
00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:57,680
two big goals for the day.

234
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:02,120
The first goal is to bring everybody home safely at the end of the day.

235
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:08,040
The second goal is to have a great day of powder skiing, you know, go out into this

236
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:13,960
wild back country and find the best snow that's out there.

237
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,720
And but we let them know that the first goal always trumps a second goal.

238
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,360
Doesn't matter how good the skiing is, like everyone wants to come home at the end of

239
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:24,120
the day.

240
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:29,960
And I think just front loading that for people is really important to say, like, you know,

241
00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,720
you're not hiring me to serve up the best run of your life.

242
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:39,160
I'll try to do that, but you're hiring me to ensure that you can go out and do this

243
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,400
and come back at the end of the day.

244
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,360
And there is a lot of uncertainty.

245
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,520
You know, we don't do any control work out there.

246
00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,480
So it's a fully wild snow.

247
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:52,480
Nope.

248
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:53,480
Okay.

249
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:54,480
It's not in our permit.

250
00:16:54,480 --> 00:17:00,000
And so, you know, ultimately we have to choose carefully what terrain that we're going to

251
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,240
ski.

252
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,320
So our day starts pretty early.

253
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:09,320
The guides will typically arrive an hour or more before the guests show up and we go through

254
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:16,680
a morning workflow on the InfoX platform and we'll go through a whole run list where we'll

255
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:21,200
talk about whether or not a run is going to be open or closed for a guest skiing for the

256
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,200
day.

257
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:32,360
And ultimately, if a run is open, it just means we feel like it can be safely guided.

258
00:17:32,360 --> 00:17:37,760
It doesn't mean that any particular line on that slope is fair game.

259
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:44,360
It might be like really tight controls to get people through a certain section.

260
00:17:44,360 --> 00:17:49,120
But you know, if we feel like it's manageable.

261
00:17:49,120 --> 00:17:52,760
And then after we go through that whole meeting, we'll kind of come up with a game plan for

262
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:53,760
the day.

263
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:58,560
That's often dependent on the groups we have, whether we have for the day, other logistical

264
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:04,800
considerations if we have touring groups or if there's a year exchange or anything else

265
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:09,400
that's happening within the operation.

266
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,400
Then the guests show up.

267
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:13,400
Hold on.

268
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,800
If I could just do a couple of terms in there that people might not be familiar with.

269
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:22,360
So the InfoX is kind of the industry platform for how you log information throughout the

270
00:18:22,360 --> 00:18:29,960
season and track week layers and their distribution of where they are for the aspect, northeast,

271
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:37,320
elevation bands, and then it's also how we share information as professionals in a standardized

272
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:38,320
platform.

273
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:44,000
So it's a very formalized setup so that you can keep track of the snow throughout the

274
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,240
whole season.

275
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,800
And then what was the other thing that I was going to, oh yeah, I can't remember.

276
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:50,800
All right, keep going.

277
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,320
Well, you know, I'll just throw in one thing about the InfoX.

278
00:18:54,320 --> 00:19:01,040
It's both, it's a tool for internal sharing of information as well as external so we can

279
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,560
share it with all our nearest neighbors.

280
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:07,800
Then everybody's making better decisions because we're seeing what everyone else is

281
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,640
seeing and they're seeing what we're seeing.

282
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:18,520
But then it's a way for us to keep our whole guide team apprised of what's going on on

283
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:19,960
every day.

284
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:24,040
The workflow gets sent out to everyone, even the guides that aren't working.

285
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:29,600
So those people can keep abreast of what's happened each day.

286
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:34,880
You know, that's what we skied, what conditions were like, any avalanches we've observed,

287
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:36,560
all those things.

288
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:43,120
So it goes both ways, both internal and external with that platform.

289
00:19:43,120 --> 00:19:44,120
Yeah.

290
00:19:44,120 --> 00:19:48,080
Oh, now I pop back into my head the run list.

291
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,840
I think this is a foreign concept for a lot of recreationalists because a lot of folks

292
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,520
say, hey, let's go to this zone.

293
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,480
I'd really like to ski this line.

294
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:05,400
It's kind of putting things backwards and we'll see, I think it's in condition.

295
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,160
Professionals do it totally backwards.

296
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:12,840
We say, hey, here's the conditions and here's our group.

297
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,520
What is appropriate for both?

298
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,600
What's the appropriate terrain given the snow conditions and group we have today?

299
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:25,440
Could you talk a little bit about how we've got the green and the red on the run list

300
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,280
and how those two don't get fuzzy?

301
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:32,880
How do you keep them straight in your head so you don't get pulled into, oh my God, that

302
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:34,240
red run looks really good.

303
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,600
Let's rationalize how we're going to ski it.

304
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:37,600
Yeah.

305
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:44,480
Well, and honestly, Jeff, that's the whole point of doing a run list is to take emotion

306
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,800
out of the decision-making process.

307
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:54,560
So we sit around in the morning looking at computers or projected images of the terrain.

308
00:20:54,560 --> 00:21:03,120
We're all drinking coffee and we talk about the weather and the snowpack and then the

309
00:21:03,120 --> 00:21:06,120
weather forecast.

310
00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:13,640
And then we talk about what terrain, given all that data, would be a safe choice for

311
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:15,120
the day.

312
00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:22,720
And we try to have enough terrain open that we can make a day out of it.

313
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:29,680
But it's a very non-emotionally charged environment, bunch of guys sitting around a table, drinking

314
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:34,320
coffee, just crunching numbers, looking at telemetry data.

315
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,440
How much did the wind blow last night and what are the weak layers that we're dealing

316
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:46,400
with and then talking about terrain as opposed to going out in the field, skiing a really

317
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:51,600
mellow run in great snow and being like, wow, that was so fun.

318
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:52,600
What about that?

319
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,960
Let's go over there.

320
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,720
That's an emotionally charged environment and you're not going to be making your best

321
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,800
decisions at that point.

322
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:08,080
So the run list is a tool to take the emotion out of it.

323
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:14,120
And it is, I would say there's also, there's one more factor where we have this ability

324
00:22:14,120 --> 00:22:16,360
to close terrain in the field.

325
00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:21,160
If we get out there and suddenly, well, the wind slabs are way touchier than we thought

326
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:25,960
or they're deeper than we expected, we can say, okay, well, we're not going to go here,

327
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,560
we're not going to go there, but we can't go the other way.

328
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,080
We can't open terrain in the field.

329
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:37,960
If we got it wrong, the penalty we pay is that we can't ski that terrain for the day,

330
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,280
but we can go there tomorrow.

331
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:46,760
So yeah, there are some ability to change our perspectives in the field, but only to

332
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,400
a more conservative outcome.

333
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:54,160
Yeah, it's a one way street towards conservative decision making.

334
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,520
We can never say, oh, that was read on the list because we were worried about wind slabs,

335
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,000
but I'm not seeing it.

336
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,560
So let's go ahead and green light it.

337
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,120
That does not happen in a professional setting.

338
00:23:04,120 --> 00:23:05,760
It does not happen.

339
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:06,760
No.

340
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:07,760
Yeah.

341
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:13,960
I find it's really interesting when I'm, my list of back country ski partners is really

342
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,880
short and it's often with professionals because it's so much easier to work with that same

343
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,440
framework.

344
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:27,160
And when we introduce a member of the public, they're just, this is like a different language.

345
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,400
And when they're like, hey, that's really well, why don't we go over and ski that?

346
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,720
And all the guys are like, nope, it wasn't on the table at meeting this morning when

347
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,160
we had coffee and they're like, what are you talking about?

348
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,680
It's a totally different way of looking at risk.

349
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:41,680
Yeah.

350
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,400
And no, absolutely.

351
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:49,160
And I feel like, you know, it's one thing when I do teach recreational courses, I encourage

352
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,360
people to have a process like this.

353
00:23:52,360 --> 00:23:57,920
However informal it is of just, you know, if they're talking about a zone, either look

354
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:03,800
at photos or talk about some of the main ski lines in there and what's open and what's

355
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:09,120
closed for the day and then choosing your partner super carefully.

356
00:24:09,120 --> 00:24:13,600
So if there are people that you go out with that always want to push and, you know, ski

357
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:20,160
a little bit more aggressively over time, you might decide, you know, it's not worth it

358
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,840
to call those people.

359
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:27,280
And I'm like you where I have a very short list of people I'm willing to ski with.

360
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:32,280
And a lot of times if I can't find a partner, it's like, I'll just go skin up our ski hill,

361
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:37,720
make a couple laps, get a good workout in, but I'm just, it's important enough to me

362
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:44,960
to have like good decision making out in the field that I won't just go with anybody that's

363
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,560
willing to go.

364
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:47,560
Yeah.

365
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:53,040
Whereas in my younger age, you know, you meet someone at a dinner party or at the bar and

366
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:54,040
be like, oh, you want to ski tomorrow?

367
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:55,040
Sure.

368
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,040
Let's go.

369
00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:04,560
And I have no idea what people's skills or risk tolerance and yeah, yeah, very, very

370
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:09,920
slim guardrails to buffer from calamity.

371
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:10,920
Yeah.

372
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,320
Hey, what are you seeing?

373
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:18,320
You've been teaching avalanche courses for about two decades now and pro courses for

374
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,040
over 10 years.

375
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:29,040
Where do you see the pros struggle with on their courses?

376
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:30,040
Yeah.

377
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,840
That's a good question.

378
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:44,720
You know, I think like everyone, you know, we all struggle to deal with uncertainty.

379
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:51,720
And I think, you know, at the professional level, we feel like we should have higher

380
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,680
confidence in our decision making.

381
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,600
One of the easy ways to have high confidence in your decision making is keep your decision

382
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,200
making really conservative.

383
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:12,400
But you know, we try to have the foundation of our decision making based on strength

384
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,240
and weight of data.

385
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:20,520
And one thing I see professionals doing is we go out in the field, we have targeted

386
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,880
observations that we're trying to take.

387
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,800
And then we bring that data back to the operation.

388
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:34,360
And I think we can all be guilty of just the bias of when it takes us an hour in a snow

389
00:26:34,360 --> 00:26:42,160
profile to gather some information about, for example, a targeted layer that we're looking

390
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:49,240
at in the snowpack, even though it's just one piece of information, and we know that

391
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:56,120
the snowpack is really variable over the terrain, it's hard not to be biased toward that piece

392
00:26:56,120 --> 00:26:58,760
of information that we got.

393
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:06,400
And you know, when we have a guide meeting, we're discussing these things, people tend

394
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:10,680
to be biased toward the information that they've collected themselves.

395
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:16,680
So the results of the snowpack tests that they've done, even though it might not agree

396
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:24,120
with, you know, some of the larger number of observations that have been taken out there.

397
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:29,040
When we take it ourselves and we have invested a lot of our own time in there, it's hard

398
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:35,960
not to be biased toward thinking that what you see is all there is out there.

399
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,120
So that's one thing I see a lot of professionals struggle with.

400
00:27:40,120 --> 00:27:45,160
You know, and I find myself in meetings pointing out all the time, like you guys, we really

401
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,600
don't have that many data points here.

402
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:54,080
We've dug a couple of profiles over this vast tenure, you know, how confident are you that

403
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:59,520
this problem really doesn't exist anywhere else just because we're not seeing it in these

404
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,200
handful of holes?

405
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:07,880
Well, if I was the person banging on this 30 by 90 centimeter column, I'm going to have

406
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:13,160
a lot of confidence in it because it, you know, this is classic social psychology, neuroscience

407
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,160
stuff of the recency bias.

408
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:20,680
And if it's my data, I believe it wholeheartedly.

409
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:25,600
And I think that's one of the great examples of working in a team where you can check me

410
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:32,560
and be like, Hey, Jeff, I know you just dug two pits and that's very fresh in your brain.

411
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:37,840
But we were just out skiing around with clients today while you were on snow safety team.

412
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,720
And this is what we saw and they don't actually mesh.

413
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:46,480
And it's, I think that's really important to remind yourself if you're in the public

414
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:52,400
of, Hey, listen, you know, you just don't have that much information to go off of and

415
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,920
contrast that with how a professional operation will do it, where you're pooling information

416
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,720
and tracking it the whole season.

417
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:06,800
And then still making usually more conservative decisions than the public is doing is often

418
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:08,440
what I see out there.

419
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:09,880
I would totally agree.

420
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:16,360
And that's why I think, you know, the forecast center, they tend to have the most information

421
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:17,360
of anybody.

422
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,520
They've got professional observers out there.

423
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,520
The forecasters are out digging.

424
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:25,320
They're in touch with ski areas and guiding operations.

425
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:30,680
And so they tend to have more data points than anyone.

426
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:38,280
So I feel like if you're a recreational skier and you're thinking that the avalanche center

427
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:43,800
has it all wrong and things are way better than they're saying, you got to realize they've,

428
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,160
they're the ones that have all the information.

429
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:55,400
And you know, I think we get this sort of non-event feedback all the time when we're

430
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,280
out there, you know, we, we ski a line, it does an avalanche.

431
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,840
And so we think, Hey, I just made a great decision.

432
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,000
That slope was totally stable.

433
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,240
But as we well know, sometimes it's the 10th skier down the slope.

434
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:09,920
Somebody finds a sweet spot.

435
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,560
And so it's really hard.

436
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:17,880
You can spend all these years out there doing it, thinking you're making great decisions.

437
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,840
And then the one time you're, you don't make a great decision.

438
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,200
It becomes incredibly obvious.

439
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:29,080
And I was just having this conversation with a colleague of mine who has not had a lot

440
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:36,480
of formal avalanche education, but has a huge amount of back country experience and suddenly

441
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:41,040
had an avalanche involvement recently.

442
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:48,720
And it just like completely rattled her, you know, because they were completely surprised

443
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:49,960
by it.

444
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,960
And I think unfortunately that's the problem.

445
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:57,000
You and I spoke about this in the past, but you know, it's the definition of a wicked learning

446
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:03,600
environment is somewhere where you don't get feedback on your decisions on a regular basis.

447
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:08,240
So it's really hard to know whether or not you're making good decisions.

448
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:09,240
Yeah.

449
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:10,240
Yeah.

450
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:17,120
And I think that's in the past, that's been a big problem with avalanche education is

451
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,040
there's no way for us to know what we don't know.

452
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:24,560
So when we do a debrief at the end of the day, we're just like, well, I think we got

453
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:25,560
it right.

454
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:26,560
We didn't get avalanche.

455
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,480
We didn't see any signs instability.

456
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,960
But in the past, we didn't know how close to the edge we were, or if we were pushing

457
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:35,840
into the red high risk zone.

458
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:41,760
And that is a really tough way to learn where you don't have a mentor.

459
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:47,360
Because like think about if you ever played any kind of kids sports or did drama or music,

460
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:52,440
you had a mentor, a coach who was on you and they're like, Hey, you got the right result,

461
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,520
but your process was all fucked up.

462
00:31:55,520 --> 00:32:00,720
We need to correct that to set you up for success in the future.

463
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:06,440
And I don't know if you've had a chance to play around with debriefing your tours with

464
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:11,080
aspect avi, but that's something I like is like, Oh, shit, I actually went into the red

465
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,920
here for this short 20 meter section.

466
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:15,840
Why did I do that?

467
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,440
Let's not do that again.

468
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:18,440
Yeah.

469
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:23,920
Well, you know, a ramp a good point that I think we're also all subject to sort of outcome

470
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:24,920
bias.

471
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:30,760
So for years, it's been standard operating procedure for almost anyone.

472
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:36,720
When you have something happen in the field, you know, an avalanche, you brief it at the

473
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:37,720
end of the day.

474
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,960
It's like, wow, you know, we got to talk about that.

475
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:45,200
That was a really close call or that was like terrible accident, whatever.

476
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:51,680
But when we don't, Hey, we just pat ourselves on the back and think, Yeah, we nailed it

477
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:58,440
today, when in fact, if we get into that pattern of debriefing our day and not necessarily

478
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:03,160
just looking at the outcome, but like, Hey, how is our decision making process?

479
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,960
How are our comms out there today?

480
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:11,160
Even if nothing really went wrong, that's when we start doing better every day.

481
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,200
And just cause we, you know, got away with it.

482
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,920
It's exactly what you're saying about like, Hey, we didn't have an avalanche tray, but

483
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,040
we did wind up in the red.

484
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:22,960
You know, why did we do that?

485
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,200
And how could we have avoided that?

486
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:31,800
You know, one of my favorite questions in these kind of daily debriefs and honestly,

487
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:36,800
I do these with my friends all the time is just say, Hey, if we went and repeated that

488
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,360
tour tomorrow, what would we do differently?

489
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:45,920
And I think for so many people, you know, we all want to get better at this.

490
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:50,520
That's the million dollar question is like, what am I going to do differently tomorrow?

491
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,400
So I'm making better decisions than I did today.

492
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:54,400
Yeah.

493
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:59,120
And since we're just coming off the Super Bowl, I always listen into an interview with,

494
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:05,000
it was an in depth dive on the Freakonomics podcast about San Francisco 49ers.

495
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:10,400
And they were talking with the coach and like the day after a game, the whole day is spent

496
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:14,160
analyzing video with every member of the team.

497
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:15,160
Yeah.

498
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:20,080
And I was like a whole day and he's like, Yeah, the day after game day, I'm in at the

499
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:26,920
office at five in the morning and it's reviewing every single second with each player to review

500
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:31,240
their performance and see what are we going to do differently next time to be better.

501
00:34:31,240 --> 00:34:33,120
And I was just like, Whoa.

502
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:37,760
And you know, it may feel like football's life or death, but skiing really is life or

503
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:38,760
death.

504
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:43,720
And quite often people are like, Hey, we didn't see an avalanche high five beer 30.

505
00:34:43,720 --> 00:34:44,720
Let's go.

506
00:34:44,720 --> 00:34:48,600
Hey, so I asked you what you see with professionals.

507
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:52,000
What kind of mistakes do you see them do?

508
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:57,480
What about for recreationalists when you're teaching a rec course or like doing an avalanche

509
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,880
refresher for folks?

510
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:05,200
Are you seeing anything different that they mistakes they tend to make that you'd be like,

511
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:10,360
Hey, I need to step in here and do some coaching so that we change this habit and set them

512
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,360
up for success.

513
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,360
Yeah.

514
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,200
There's a few things.

515
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:22,200
But I see with a lot of recreational skiers, I would say one of them right out of the gate

516
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:26,280
is they often head out into the field without any sort of plan.

517
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,880
Let's just go out there and see what looks good.

518
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:35,760
So there's no formalized decision making in that non emotionally charged environment.

519
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:42,400
So they're leaving themselves open to all these human factors that we know tend to be

520
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:47,400
the underlying cause of almost every accident for one reason or another.

521
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,680
It's like, Oh, there's tracks on that slope.

522
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,320
So we thought it would be fine.

523
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,280
We saw another group go there.

524
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:58,600
All these things that can sway our decision making where in that non emotionally charged

525
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:02,440
environment, there's no way I would ski that today.

526
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:06,800
But if we didn't have that conversation, we'd get out there and we see a couple of people

527
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:12,380
we know going to ski that suddenly we can talk ourselves into it.

528
00:36:12,380 --> 00:36:15,760
So that's one of the biggest ones.

529
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:22,640
You know, I would say by and large for so long, the focus has been on beacons shovel

530
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,080
probe have all these rescue skills.

531
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:30,960
And it's like, while I would agree, those are requisite skills for anyone going out in

532
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,480
the back country.

533
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,000
The reality is it's like CPR.

534
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:40,340
Like you're if hopefully you're never ever going to use those things.

535
00:36:40,340 --> 00:36:44,840
And so we have to carry the gear and we have to have those skills.

536
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:51,600
But in reality, we want to have a decision making process that's going to keep us from

537
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,200
ever utilizing those things in our pack.

538
00:36:55,200 --> 00:37:01,600
And so I think that an avalanche courses, of course, is where you have to learn those

539
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:02,600
skills.

540
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:07,840
But I feel like there's been such an emphasis on that over the years that people think because

541
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:13,880
they know how to do rescue and because they're carrying the gear that they are being safe.

542
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,800
When in fact, you know, that is nothing to do with being safe.

543
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:24,200
It's that's essentially having a first aid class before you go out backpacking, you

544
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:30,800
know, you're probably not going to use any of those first aid skills.

545
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:36,920
But you know, you're obviously a safer person in the back country for having those skills.

546
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,920
But you want to make good decisions to begin with.

547
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:46,480
So it's interesting if I can get off you for a second, it's kind of interesting that the

548
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,760
focus on the reactive gear and knowing how to use it well.

549
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:56,000
And you're like, OK, but the stats are if we're buried, it's a coin toss whether we're

550
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,320
going to live or die for buried.

551
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:05,800
And that is like, whoa, what if we put the emphasis on our proactive systems to keep us

552
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,880
out of avalanches altogether?

553
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,600
And it sounds like correct me if I'm wrong, I'm hearing you say, hey, there needs to be

554
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:15,680
more of an emphasis on our proactive systems.

555
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:21,200
Yes, you got to have the rescue skills and gear, but it's so much better if we never

556
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:22,560
have to touch them.

557
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:23,720
Absolutely.

558
00:38:23,720 --> 00:38:28,480
And I feel like, you know, avalanche education has moved heavily in that direction.

559
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:34,080
You know, I know at airy level one class is called decision making and avalanche terrain.

560
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:38,040
And it's to help people come up with a process.

561
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:45,480
So and it's kind of mimicked after what we do very formally as guides, but it's have

562
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:52,560
a process that's repeatable that ultimately gets better the more we use it so that we

563
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,920
are making good decisions to begin with.

564
00:38:54,920 --> 00:39:01,520
So we hopefully never have to reach into our packs to pull out any of that rescue gear.

565
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:06,280
You know, one thing I'll sometimes do in my recreational avalanche classes is ask people

566
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:11,840
like, Hey, give me your transceiver right now before you ski this slope.

567
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:18,120
You know, people lost your mind and it's like, really, you're not willing to see this slope

568
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,200
without a transceiver.

569
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,680
What do you think the likelihood this thing's going to avalanche?

570
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:28,560
And if it's high enough that, you know, the only way you would possibly ski it is with

571
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:36,280
your beacon, then in my mind, you might not have enough of a margin built in like I as

572
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:43,760
a guide, especially for an operation where we don't do any kind of active mitigation.

573
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,040
You know, we are avoiding avalanches.

574
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:53,280
We are trying to ski slopes that we feel like very, very low likelihood are going to avalanche.

575
00:39:53,280 --> 00:40:00,600
And you know, again, I'm not going to take off my transceiver, but at the same time,

576
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:05,800
I don't feel like the only reason I'm willing to ski that slope is because I have a transceiver

577
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:06,800
on.

578
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:10,360
I feel like the main reason I'm willing to ski it at all is because I'm confident that

579
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,720
I'm not going to trigger an avalanche on it.

580
00:40:12,720 --> 00:40:23,240
And when my confidence goes down, I start thinking about maybe I should choose a different

581
00:40:23,240 --> 00:40:27,520
slope or a more conservative line on this slope.

582
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:28,520
Yeah.

583
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:33,880
Have you come across Annie Duke's book, Thinking in Bets?

584
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:34,880
Yes.

585
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:36,880
Oh, I love her.

586
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,880
Yeah, absolutely.

587
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:47,520
Well, yeah, I feel like I want to hire her to come into our operation to talk to us about

588
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:54,360
decision making because, you know, so much of what she talks about has direct application

589
00:40:54,360 --> 00:41:04,280
to the kind of decision making that we are making where, you know, in the world of poker,

590
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,200
that is not a wicked learning environment.

591
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:14,720
So, I got, just say, so she's a neuroscience psychology researcher at Penn, PhD, and she's

592
00:41:14,720 --> 00:41:18,640
also World Series champion of poker.

593
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:24,200
And the lens she looks through is she says, hey, listen, life is not chess.

594
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:28,280
Chess is where all the moves are known, all the information is available, and the best

595
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:29,760
player is going to win.

596
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:35,520
Life is like poker, where you have limited information, a high degree of uncertainty,

597
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:39,000
and it's about the process because you may get the process right, but you may not get

598
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:40,680
the right outcome.

599
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:46,560
And as you said, it's a bit of a wicked learning environment, but you get feedback quicker

600
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,480
than you do from the avalanche game.

601
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:54,000
So you might have a full house, and it looks like a good hand, but holy cow, Larry's holding

602
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,960
four aces, and I just didn't know that.

603
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:58,520
Yeah, yeah.

604
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:04,400
And her phrase, encapsulated is, do you want to bet?

605
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:08,960
Hey, Larry, I'm really confident about this slope, and you're like, really, Jeff, do you

606
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:10,560
want to bet your life on that?

607
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:15,320
In the year transceiver, just how much margins do we have on this?

608
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:16,320
Yeah.

609
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,280
Yeah, well, and one of the things she thought-

610
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:19,280
Keep going, I want to hear your thoughts.

611
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:20,280
Sorry, I'll shut up.

612
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:21,600
No, no, no, it's great.

613
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:31,160
I'm so glad you brought up Annie Duke because, and I would actually throw out there, I just

614
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:39,800
listened to an incredible interview with her on a podcast called Capital Allocators, where

615
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:46,920
she talks all about decision making and dealing with uncertainty, and one of the things she

616
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:57,640
brings up is this idea of, we use these terms all the time, like likely and possible, and

617
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:07,160
they're kind of vague terms, but they mean very different things to many different people.

618
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:12,520
So they've done some studies where they've asked different people, when I say something

619
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:19,960
is a real possibility, I want you to put a percentage on that, a real possibility.

620
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:26,080
And the percentage range people gave was from 20 to 80%, right?

621
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:27,080
For likely?

622
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,160
When something, yeah, for a real possibility.

623
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:31,160
Wow.

624
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:37,040
Hey, so, Larry, I say, let's go into this bar tonight.

625
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:41,600
It's likely we're going to get our asses kicked because it's a pretty rough crowd.

626
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,600
Do you want to go in there?

627
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,040
I'm going to say hell no.

628
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:53,240
Yeah, which I think that's what we see at considerable avalanche danger.

629
00:43:53,240 --> 00:43:57,080
The definition is human triggered avalanches are likely.

630
00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:04,720
And yet we still see lots of people pushing hard in steep avalanche terrain, way over

631
00:44:04,720 --> 00:44:06,360
30 degrees.

632
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:10,000
And it's incredibly rare to get an avalanche under 30 degrees.

633
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,240
It's kind of outlier terrain.

634
00:44:12,240 --> 00:44:16,200
And that's the standard travel advice you'll see in the avalanche bulletin.

635
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:17,800
Hey, it's considerable danger out there.

636
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:19,760
The situation is critical.

637
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,080
Human triggered are likely.

638
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:24,200
Keep it under 30 degrees and out of the run out zones.

639
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,200
And yet we often see people really pushing it.

640
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:31,920
And tragically, we had two really serious accidents in Crested Butte this week where

641
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:38,080
one person critically injured, another person killed, and they were riding over 40 degrees

642
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:41,560
and a bull's eye right where the persistence slab problem was.

643
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,000
We've got a really bad surface war problem right now.

644
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:51,000
And so they were like, okay, considerable danger, riding well over 40 degrees, exactly

645
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,560
where the problem lives.

646
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:57,000
It's like saying, hey, the mountain lion lives on this north facing terrain.

647
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,600
And I'm like, sweet, let's go tangle with the mountain lion.

648
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:06,080
I think we need to get the word out there for the public and just say, hey, the professionals,

649
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:10,680
we really dial it back and we're not doing that stuff.

650
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:16,560
And we've got more training and mentorship and teamwork and data tracking than the public

651
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:17,560
does.

652
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,400
And we're still raining it way back in.

653
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:21,400
Yeah.

654
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,400
Yeah.

655
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:27,680
Well, and I think the concept of building margins into what we do.

656
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:38,240
So whether we're using a term like considerable or human triggered avalanches are likely,

657
00:45:38,240 --> 00:45:49,160
we want to feel like we have a big enough buffer to account for the uncertainty we have.

658
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:53,680
So does that surface war exist in this particular location?

659
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:54,680
I don't know.

660
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:59,680
I mean, I could dig a profile and I'll be really confident about right where I dig,

661
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:04,760
but I don't know if it exists 20 yards away from here.

662
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:10,040
So there's, when we're dealing with that uncertainty, the way we have to manage it is by building

663
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:16,000
margins in and leaning toward the conservative side of things.

664
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:21,120
And one of the easiest places to put a margin in is just with slope angle.

665
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:22,120
Yeah.

666
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:28,480
And ultimately, that's, you know, I feel like that is what we teach people on recreational

667
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:36,360
avalanche courses is when avalanche danger goes up or when your uncertainty goes up,

668
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,360
we dial the terrain down.

669
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,600
And that usually just means turning down slope angles.

670
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,120
That's the simplest way to do it.

671
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:45,120
And yeah.

672
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:46,120
Yeah.

673
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:47,800
And slope angles are objective.

674
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:53,200
You can get some baseline data if you have LIDAR laser mapping, and then you can verify

675
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:58,320
it in the field with your slope angle measurements and start to really calibrate your eye.

676
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:03,920
And that's something I see when I'm teaching AMGA courses with new guides is, or working

677
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:09,280
with Special Forces Mountain Guide team, there isn't that refinement yet.

678
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,320
They're not there yet with the slope angles in the field.

679
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:16,720
And I'm like, okay, everybody, what's your, what's your number?

680
00:47:16,720 --> 00:47:20,640
My price is right rules the closest without going over.

681
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:24,640
And you need to be plus or minus two degrees.

682
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:27,600
You've got this window, but as a professional, you need to be there.

683
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:34,040
So when the terrain changes are action changes as well.

684
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:39,720
And it's really interesting to see how people who don't have a, maybe like a peeps mounted

685
00:47:39,720 --> 00:47:46,160
pole mounted slope angle meter or one on their phone, they're, they're wildly divergent.

686
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,520
And yet supremely confident.

687
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:55,440
And usually the less mentor that would always say, you know, you could spend 20 years looking

688
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,240
at slope angles and guessing what they are.

689
00:47:58,240 --> 00:48:03,800
And after 20 years, if you don't ever measure them, you are still guessing, right?

690
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:10,400
The only way to hone that skill is by constantly taking your best guess and then pulling out

691
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:16,400
a tool and seeing how you did, and that's how we calibrate.

692
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:20,320
Yeah, I don't know if you've ever skied with my brother since our ski exam back in the

693
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:25,720
day, but he is uncannily accurate and it drives me nuts.

694
00:48:25,720 --> 00:48:32,760
Cause his brother was super competitive and he has bang on every single time.

695
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:36,960
And I'm like plus or minus one to two degrees usually.

696
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:42,200
And, and it's funny at the early part of the season, October, November, not so accurate,

697
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:46,880
but then the more feedback I get checking with the inclinometer, I get calibrated tighter

698
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,000
and tighter and I still can't beat him.

699
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,400
And it drives me nuts.

700
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:57,560
You know, one of the things I feel like helped me more than anything when I used to ski patrol

701
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:04,720
was looking, you know, one of the head forecasters made a map of the skier photos of the whole

702
00:49:04,720 --> 00:49:09,720
skier area with the slope angles of every run on the slope.

703
00:49:09,720 --> 00:49:12,520
So this is for our control routes.

704
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:17,640
And so pretty soon you had this like, Oh, that's what a 38 degree slope feels like.

705
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:18,640
That's 42 degrees.

706
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,400
That's 45 degrees.

707
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,720
And pretty soon you're like, Oh yeah, that's just like double diamond.

708
00:49:23,720 --> 00:49:24,720
Okay.

709
00:49:24,720 --> 00:49:25,720
I got that one.

710
00:49:25,720 --> 00:49:30,160
And that I found that so helpful.

711
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:35,880
And was that the average of the slope angle in the start zone or was it the max slope

712
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:36,880
angle?

713
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:40,080
It's typically the max slope angle in the start zone.

714
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:41,080
Yep.

715
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:44,000
And that is the most important number.

716
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:48,880
It's not so much the average because if you've got a steep roll over into flat, I want to

717
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:50,520
know what that steep roll over is.

718
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:57,360
That is the most important factor for determining the likelihood of it releasing in an outland.

719
00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:58,360
Yep.

720
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:02,600
And I think, you know, we need to point out the fact that when you're dealing with persistent

721
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:07,960
week layers, you also need to be concerned with connected terrain.

722
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:15,920
So you might be skiing a 33 degree slope, but if it is 38 degrees adjacent to where you're

723
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:21,440
skiing but connected to, you could trigger the week layer that's going to pull out into

724
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,880
some lower angle terrain.

725
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:24,880
Yeah.

726
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:25,880
Yeah.

727
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:30,640
And what we're seeing here in the crest of bute zone is the surface horror layer is incredibly

728
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:36,120
touchy and unpredictable, meaning people are triggering from a half mile away.

729
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,440
I mean, that's just not fair.

730
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:39,440
No.

731
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:40,440
Yeah.

732
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,200
And then other slopes, non-reactive.

733
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:47,880
So if you happen to dig or ride one of the non-reactive slopes, it gives me this recency

734
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,800
bias of like, Hey, let's keep stepping it up.

735
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,200
It's looking good.

736
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,840
But the slope adjacent to us remotely triggered and we couldn't see around the back.

737
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:56,840
The corner.

738
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:57,840
Yeah.

739
00:50:57,840 --> 00:50:58,840
No.

740
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:05,800
I, you know, one of my biggest close calls in my entire guiding career is very similar

741
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:14,080
story to that where there was a surface horror layer widespread throughout British Columbia.

742
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:19,800
Another guide and I were guiding a trip up at a back country hut in BC.

743
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,400
And we knew all about the surface horror.

744
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:28,040
And when we flew in, we asked the owner of the hut who was also a mountain guide about

745
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:29,040
the surface horror.

746
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:33,120
And he said, Oh yeah, well, it's not in our, our zone, our tenure here.

747
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:34,680
I said, that's crazy.

748
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,280
Like everybody's talking about this.

749
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:41,100
There's been like helicopters or totally triggering it.

750
00:51:41,100 --> 00:51:42,880
People are triggering it from the flats.

751
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:44,400
Like, how could you not have it here?

752
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,000
He's like, I've been here the last few weeks.

753
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:48,000
We've been digging.

754
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:50,080
We're not finding it.

755
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:55,920
So we start poking around and we're digging and first day we find it.

756
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:57,880
But you know, it's small.

757
00:51:57,880 --> 00:52:00,120
It's not super reactive.

758
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:07,240
And as the week goes on, we continue to dig and we're finding it some places, but not

759
00:52:07,240 --> 00:52:08,240
everywhere.

760
00:52:08,240 --> 00:52:11,560
And it's not this giant, big, scary layer.

761
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:18,040
And so gradually over the course of the week, we're starting to step up the terrain and

762
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,600
it's like day six of a seven day trip.

763
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:25,520
And we decided to ski a site pretty big run in the alpine.

764
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,840
And my partner's taking the group up and I'm like, Hey, I just going to dig one more time

765
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:34,680
and just, just confirm that we don't have the layer in this zone.

766
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:39,280
I dig a profile right at tree line where you'd expect to find surface horror.

767
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,400
It's not there at all.

768
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,560
I'm like hustling to catch back up with the group.

769
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:50,720
I come around this role and I see them on, they've got a bunch of switchbacks to gain

770
00:52:50,720 --> 00:52:57,440
ridge crest and I watch the guide step onto ridge crest.

771
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:04,920
And as soon as he does this entire bowl, it's out like a meter deep.

772
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:12,440
And we've got 10 people in the track and you know, all in switchbacks and this whole thing

773
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:16,560
goes and I'm like, Oh my God, one, two, three, you know, I'm counting.

774
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:17,560
I'm like, get on the radio.

775
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:19,360
Hey, I see everybody who have got them all.

776
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,680
He's like, I know me too.

777
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:23,760
Nobody was involved.

778
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:29,560
His track was kind of miraculously intact.

779
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:35,960
The debris came to within an inch of the pole track next to his up track.

780
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:36,960
Wow.

781
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,800
But it didn't touch the up track at all.

782
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:44,960
But then we get up to ridge crest and you know, we look at the fracture line and there's

783
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:53,320
like 10 millimeter surface horror, plain as day, giant standing up, you know, right at

784
00:53:53,320 --> 00:54:04,280
the base of this 36 inch hard slab, like size D3 avalanche, you know, deadly avalanche.

785
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:08,840
And we're like, Oh my God, that was way too close.

786
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:13,040
And that's, you know, anytime I'm dealing with a persistent weak layer, that's what

787
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:14,040
I feel.

788
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:21,080
I remember that of like, you just, you cannot outsmart the snowpack because of this, the

789
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,760
bugaboo is spatial variability.

790
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:27,980
You know, the snowpack is not uniform over the terrain.

791
00:54:27,980 --> 00:54:34,880
And so trying to think, you know, what's going on everywhere is just a folly.

792
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:35,880
Yeah.

793
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:39,800
We don't have X-ray vision, even if you're a mountain guide.

794
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:40,800
Exactly.

795
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:45,320
Or even if you, like you said, the hot owner who's a mountain guy is like, Oh yeah, I

796
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:46,560
haven't seen it in a couple of weeks.

797
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:47,560
You know, it's looking good.

798
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,440
And you're like, you just can't see everything.

799
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,640
It's so much to cover.

800
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:53,640
Yeah.

801
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:58,640
The, the, the buzzword for that is spatial variability, but just means that the snow is

802
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:01,240
different here than it is over here.

803
00:55:01,240 --> 00:55:02,240
Yeah.

804
00:55:02,240 --> 00:55:09,520
And that's a perfect example of we rarely see surface or forming right at ridge crest.

805
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:15,080
There's usually enough air movement and wind at those exposed elevations that we don't get

806
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,040
a lot of surface or in the alpine.

807
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:23,120
We tend to find it the lower elevations at tree line where it's just a bit less windy,

808
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,960
but you still have a clear view of the sky.

809
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:32,480
And so for me not to find it down low and then to have it standing up giant right at

810
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:37,440
ridge crest, you know, none of us would have ever guessed that could be the case.

811
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:38,440
Yeah.

812
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:39,440
Yeah.

813
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:45,480
And you know, it was curious as you were telling that story, one of the things that stuck out,

814
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:50,600
it sounded like as your colleague crested and got on a chain in terrain.

815
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:54,040
Is that, do you think where he triggered it?

816
00:55:54,040 --> 00:56:01,400
Sorry, Jeff, you just cut out there right when you started asking the question.

817
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:02,400
Sorry.

818
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,240
I must have slope.

819
00:56:04,240 --> 00:56:05,240
Yeah.

820
00:56:05,240 --> 00:56:06,240
Yeah.

821
00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:09,880
The squirrel powered internet is bogging down.

822
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:15,320
Do you think it was your colleague who triggered it as he changed terrain?

823
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:20,880
He went from the kind of steep planar slope to it rolled over to flatter terrain?

824
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:21,880
Yeah.

825
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:26,440
Yeah, I mean, it was right when he stepped onto ridge crest.

826
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:32,480
He said he heard the big womb felt the whole snowpack drop out from under him.

827
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:38,000
What was interesting, I have an incredible photo of that whole uptrack right after the

828
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:39,360
avalanche.

829
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:47,720
And, uh, you know, he is essentially there's two big bowls and there's a slightly lower

830
00:56:47,720 --> 00:56:50,680
angle rib that went between them.

831
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:51,920
But it was subtle.

832
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,600
It wasn't like a really pronounced rib.

833
00:56:54,600 --> 00:57:01,600
And as he was working up the slope, it kind of clouded over and the light got really flat.

834
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:07,720
And he was just kind of feeling the snow, how steep it was and trying to keep the track

835
00:57:07,720 --> 00:57:11,280
on the lowest angle terrain he could feel.

836
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:18,400
And, uh, his last, well, as he was getting close to ridge crest, he starts poking out

837
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:21,240
and he's like, ah, this is feeling a little steep.

838
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:26,160
So he made a kick turn back away and then another kick turn.

839
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:30,280
So he knew like, if I can't get to ridge crest here, it's going to be two more kick

840
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:35,600
turns, which we always try to avoid, but he put two more in.

841
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:43,280
And then when he stepped onto the ridge, the whole slope triggered and had he put, had he

842
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:50,280
not put in those last two kick turns, he would have just walked right through the start zone

843
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:51,920
where it actually pulled out.

844
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:57,360
So the fact that he had that where with all to be like, this is just feeling a little

845
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:58,360
steep.

846
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,240
I'm just going to kick it back.

847
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:04,160
That's what kept the up track completely intact.

848
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:08,560
Whereas if he would have gone straight across him and or multiple people would have been

849
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:10,640
caught in that avalanche.

850
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:18,640
Yeah, and that pattern of what you're describing of a change in the terrain where it goes from

851
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:25,520
steep to flatter, that is often the place you'll be able to access the weak layer that you

852
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:27,960
weren't disturbing before.

853
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:32,640
And you know, Colorado has a highly variable snowpack because we don't get a lot of snow.

854
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:34,320
It's usually cold and light.

855
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:36,720
So it's easily transported by the wind.

856
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:42,640
So oftentimes people will be skinning up the bowl and as it rolls over onto the ridge,

857
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:48,360
it gets windswept and you go from a two meter snowpack and it's hard to access that weak

858
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:51,840
layer because it's insulated by a thick, strong slab.

859
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:56,920
But then as it thins out closer to the ridge and you're getting down towards grass, that's

860
00:58:56,920 --> 00:59:03,440
often where someone collapses the weak layer because the slab is gotten so thin and then

861
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:05,760
it triggers behind them.

862
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:12,880
So they might be on like 25 degrees and shallow and the rest of the team is back on steeper

863
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:17,360
terrain over 30 on a big slab and that's where it goes.

864
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:23,480
So I'm always really wary of changes in terrain with persistent weak layers and changes in

865
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:25,480
the depth of the slab.

866
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:30,800
And that's one thing I'll be like probing either with my ski pole handle or actually

867
00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:36,320
have my probe out and clipped to my belt on my pack so that I can just keep doing that

868
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:38,800
X-ray probing and be like, what's changing?

869
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:39,800
What's changing?

870
00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:40,800
What's changing?

871
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,000
Whoa, oh, this got weird in a hurry.

872
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:46,800
The slab is thinning out and now I feel that strong over weak.

873
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:49,640
Ooh, shoot, I really don't like this.

874
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:50,640
We're out of here.

875
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:51,640
Yeah.

876
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:57,680
Well, and yeah, I think an avalanche probe is the closest thing that we will ever get

877
00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:02,960
to X-ray vision unless you are able to raise a bunch more money and create some sort of

878
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:09,280
goggles that will give us that X-ray vision for when we're traveling around over snow

879
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:12,440
covered terrain.

880
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:19,160
And if it does happen, I just want to be clear, it was my idea.

881
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:22,960
But yeah, the tool we have at the moment is pretty analog.

882
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:27,320
It's a probe and you can feel a lot of what's going on and you can tell the depth of the

883
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:33,440
snow and if you have benchmarks in the snow pack, one thing I encourage people to do all

884
01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:39,520
the time, if you do take the time to dig and you have certain layers in the snow pack,

885
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:44,440
put a probe in next to those layers and see what it feels like when you're passing through

886
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:49,480
those layers, check the depth, see what it feels like when you're going through, you

887
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:52,680
know, a facet crust combo, how far down is it?

888
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:57,640
And then when you're walking around with your probe, it's much more meaningful because

889
01:00:57,640 --> 01:01:04,320
you've calibrated it to the snow pack that you actually know is there.

890
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:10,080
I think that's the coolest experience when you're teaching an avalanche course and everyone's

891
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:12,080
like, oh, snow pits, I want to learn how to do it.

892
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:16,840
And you're like, hey, you're not going to ride this because the snow pit looks good.

893
01:01:16,840 --> 01:01:19,560
Let's just be clear why we're doing the snow pit.

894
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:24,800
It's to learn about the snow and correlate that with the avalanche bulletin.

895
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:26,960
So we have a conceptual model.

896
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:30,040
It's not a decision making tool.

897
01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:33,400
You don't have enough experience or enough pits.

898
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:38,360
There's just not possible to dig enough on one tour to say yes or no.

899
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:43,760
However, I love doing that with the ski pole handle, which is kind of gross.

900
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:48,680
But then when you hold your probe like a pencil with two fingers and a thumb, kind of like

901
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:55,160
I'm using chopsticks, and it's a skill that needs to be trained over time, it's pretty

902
01:01:55,160 --> 01:01:57,120
cool and then people can start to correlate.

903
01:01:57,120 --> 01:02:01,560
And as you change aspect, you're like, oh, I don't feel the crust anymore.

904
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:05,560
Oh, now it's just facets to the ground.

905
01:02:05,560 --> 01:02:06,560
Yeah.

906
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:07,560
Yeah.

907
01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:12,040
In Colorado, once you push through the slab, then you can just let go of the probe and

908
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:15,480
it just drops all the way down to your rock.

909
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:16,480
Yeah.

910
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:17,480
Yeah.

911
01:02:17,480 --> 01:02:18,480
Yeah.

912
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:19,480
Yeah, definitely.

913
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:24,120
You know, while we're doing a little bit of myth busting, one thing that I've seen on

914
01:02:24,120 --> 01:02:29,320
social media recently, I try to avoid it like the plague, but every once in a while when

915
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:35,800
I'm slumming the deaths out there, deaths, was people saying, hey, why are we skiing

916
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:42,440
this steep 38 degree pitch at considerable danger where we have the persistent slab problem?

917
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:48,040
And they're like, because we already got the slab to collapse and the slope cracked up,

918
01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:49,440
but it didn't avalanche.

919
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:51,200
So now we're going to ski it.

920
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:58,720
And I'm like, whoa, I used to think that way until I've seen slopes collapse multiple

921
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:02,600
times and shoot geysers of snow up in the air.

922
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:04,440
It was that unstable.

923
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:10,440
And then finally on the 10th or 12th massive booming collapse, it finally avalanched and

924
01:03:10,440 --> 01:03:11,600
released.

925
01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:16,400
And I was like, yeah, don't think we want to trust our teams, you know, hang our teams

926
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:21,360
lives on that theory of it already collapsed once.

927
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:22,800
It's not going to collapse again.

928
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:26,480
You're like, nature doesn't like to be put in boxes.

929
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:30,960
And it is amazing if you're out there long enough, the crazy ass shit you're going to

930
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:34,520
see if you're skiing 100 days a year in the back country.

931
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:35,520
Yeah.

932
01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:40,280
And speaking of a personal experience, I had a close call with that where we were right

933
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:45,160
on the edge of 30 degrees and we just kept getting booming collapses.

934
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:48,560
And then we finally triggered the slope parallel to us.

935
01:03:48,560 --> 01:03:53,600
And it literally crossed a foot over our skin track where we had popped out of the glade.

936
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,080
And I was like, that was way too close.

937
01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:57,960
It was cutting it way too close.

938
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:02,560
So that burned that into my brain of just because it collapsed once doesn't mean it's

939
01:04:02,560 --> 01:04:04,280
not going to have a ledge.

940
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:06,480
Don't don't hang your life on that.

941
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:14,480
Well, I think we just, we don't really have the skill when we hear a big wonk like that

942
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:20,800
to assess like how much of the snowpack actually just collapsed right now.

943
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:26,680
You know, you can make a guess, but there's really no way to know whether that was the

944
01:04:26,680 --> 01:04:31,800
10 yards around you, the 100 yards around you, what it was.

945
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:39,160
And it's often, you know, feels big and alarming when in fact it's quite localized still.

946
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:40,160
Yeah.

947
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:41,160
Yeah.

948
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:42,160
Yeah.

949
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:46,000
And my friend Dave asked a question that I think you touched on before he was like, hey,

950
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:50,760
snow pits, Jeff, like I understand we can't say, oh, I saw this in the pit here.

951
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:53,320
So that peak over there must be the same.

952
01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:59,440
But he's like, if you had to draw a circle around you, how many feet out is that snowpack

953
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:01,040
representative of?

954
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:06,600
And I was like, fuck, if I know, like there's no way to know.

955
01:05:06,600 --> 01:05:08,680
That's the million dollar question.

956
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:14,200
You know, we've all probably seen or many certainly most of us professionals have seen

957
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:22,400
the famous photo from Bruce Jamison who runs the Snow Science Department University of

958
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:33,520
Calgary of what looks like a very uniform planar slope that has like, oh gosh, 20 different

959
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:41,520
ruch block tests, large column snowpack tests on there and the scores range everywhere from

960
01:05:41,520 --> 01:05:50,520
very stable to very unstable, all on the same slope with no noticeable difference whatsoever.

961
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:58,240
And as soon as you realize, okay, all bets are off, you know, and I mean, it's the definition

962
01:05:58,240 --> 01:05:59,840
of spatial variability.

963
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:04,120
We just don't know nearly as much as we think we do.

964
01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:10,040
But the bias is when you've invested a lot of time into collecting that data, you think

965
01:06:10,040 --> 01:06:13,920
that it's much more representative than it really is.

966
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:14,920
Yeah.

967
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:15,920
Yeah.

968
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:18,040
Hey, shifting gears a little bit.

969
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:24,400
I know you teach courses for the examiner for the AMGA for the American Mount guys Association.

970
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:28,440
So you're training and examining new guides.

971
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:36,640
This often kind of like the classic line or two bullet points that you will give candidates

972
01:06:36,640 --> 01:06:44,360
over and over and over that comes up all the time, like a pattern you're seeing of, hey,

973
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:53,240
this is where you need to focus on and improve your skills on.

974
01:06:53,240 --> 01:07:02,000
It's probably track setting to be perfectly honest, you know, less in the avalanche realm

975
01:07:02,000 --> 01:07:06,440
and more in just like the overall enjoyment of the day.

976
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:12,400
So you know, I'll typically ask people on a percentage basis how much of the day do you

977
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,240
spend going uphill versus going downhill?

978
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:22,720
You know, we all know it's 85 potentially 90% of the day is going uphill.

979
01:07:22,720 --> 01:07:29,680
And so, you know, you really want to work hard to make that part of the day enjoyable.

980
01:07:29,680 --> 01:07:33,240
And the way you do that is with your uptrack.

981
01:07:33,240 --> 01:07:40,720
So it's both, you know, the uptrack you set and how you pace people on that terrain.

982
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:46,320
And then the other thing about the uptrack you set is I feel like so many people are

983
01:07:46,320 --> 01:07:51,680
so concerned about preserving the skiing, like, oh, I'm just going to put a million little

984
01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:54,400
kicker and put this slope over here.

985
01:07:54,400 --> 01:08:01,080
So it's like, okay, you've made a terrible uptrack that I didn't find in any way enjoyable.

986
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:08,760
And you've gotten zero information about the snow because we didn't go over there and

987
01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:11,000
then come back across over here.

988
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:12,000
Right.

989
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:16,960
So it's that long meandering, gentle uptrack that is both enjoyable.

990
01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:19,960
People get to the top and go, oh, we're here already.

991
01:08:19,960 --> 01:08:24,000
And it also gives you a sense of, oh, it's a little more wind protected on that other

992
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:27,920
side or it's kind of blown in, it's skiing a little deeper there.

993
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:30,400
Or I wonder what's over that little roll.

994
01:08:30,400 --> 01:08:35,040
I'm going to put the uptrack over there and have a look.

995
01:08:35,040 --> 01:08:41,600
The other thing I tell people all the time is, you know, when you do put in that gentle

996
01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:48,880
meandering uptrack, it gives you the ability to try to route it by small little test slopes

997
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:56,240
that you can actually just jump on with your skis, put little ski cuts on and you can gain

998
01:08:56,240 --> 01:09:00,800
a ton of information while you're moving uphill.

999
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:06,480
So you don't feel that need to stop and dig a profile and get a ton of information about

1000
01:09:06,480 --> 01:09:12,660
one spot in the terrain, but you've been collecting info the entire way up.

1001
01:09:12,660 --> 01:09:18,040
So when you get to the top, you have all these data points that you feel like you can see

1002
01:09:18,040 --> 01:09:24,360
a trend line through instead of one big data point that may be totally representative or

1003
01:09:24,360 --> 01:09:30,640
maybe a complete outlier, but the less data points you have, the harder it is to see the

1004
01:09:30,640 --> 01:09:34,240
trend line through those points.

1005
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:43,600
So yeah, and then take an aerial view on that as a mountain guide, we have a hypothesis

1006
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:45,680
of what the forecast is.

1007
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:52,600
The hypothesis is that it's moderate and we're constantly trying to disprove it.

1008
01:09:52,600 --> 01:09:56,400
Like we're not just like, oh, forecast center said moderate, sweet, let's go.

1009
01:09:56,400 --> 01:10:02,960
It's like, okay, we are going to rigorously test this and gather as much data as we can

1010
01:10:02,960 --> 01:10:07,440
to try to be like, oh, actually we're seeing a reactive snowpack.

1011
01:10:07,440 --> 01:10:13,120
We put our skin track in on a mellow spot, but there's this small D1 rollover we can

1012
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:16,400
stomp on from above with our whole team.

1013
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:23,080
And if it pops off, we're like, okay, forecast disproved, snowpack super reactive, change

1014
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:24,080
in plans.

1015
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,960
And it's not just this blind acceptance.

1016
01:10:26,960 --> 01:10:30,240
And each forecast zone is going to be different.

1017
01:10:30,240 --> 01:10:35,160
And I don't know what the internal metrics are, but one of the best forecast centers

1018
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:40,720
in Europe, certainly one of the best funded, their internal metrics say they're wrong about

1019
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:42,520
20% of the time.

1020
01:10:42,520 --> 01:10:44,560
And so that's a really sobering thought.

1021
01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:49,360
And just like the weather forecast, nature is incredibly complex.

1022
01:10:49,360 --> 01:10:54,400
And the humans are incredibly highly trained and skilled at what they do, but nature does

1023
01:10:54,400 --> 01:10:56,320
not like to be put in boxes.

1024
01:10:56,320 --> 01:11:02,120
So I think it's really important for the recreationalists as well as the professionals to take that

1025
01:11:02,120 --> 01:11:08,960
mindset and being like, hey, the forecast is a mental model that was put out at 4 AM

1026
01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:10,600
by somebody in the hot seat.

1027
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:15,120
And I've never had a day at one.

1028
01:11:15,120 --> 01:11:16,120
Yeah.

1029
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:17,120
Yeah.

1030
01:11:17,120 --> 01:11:18,120
Yeah.

1031
01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:25,480
Like things could change and it's over a large zone and we are on a specific slope and we

1032
01:11:25,480 --> 01:11:31,960
need to verify, verify, verify that it pertains to what we're seeing and not just be like,

1033
01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:33,360
woohoo, turn my brain off.

1034
01:11:33,360 --> 01:11:34,360
Let's go.

1035
01:11:34,360 --> 01:11:35,360
Party time.

1036
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:36,360
Yeah.

1037
01:11:36,360 --> 01:11:37,360
It's so true.

1038
01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:42,240
And anyhow, we have this disconnect of there's so many days that we're out there and the

1039
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:45,720
weather is nothing like what the forecast said.

1040
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:46,720
Yeah.

1041
01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:54,160
We look at Avalanche forecast, which is also has this high degree of variability based on

1042
01:11:54,160 --> 01:11:55,760
exactly where you are.

1043
01:11:55,760 --> 01:12:02,640
They're forecasting for this huge area and we expect that, oh, it should be exactly spot

1044
01:12:02,640 --> 01:12:07,520
on and I'm not going to see anything different than what they told me.

1045
01:12:07,520 --> 01:12:08,520
Yeah.

1046
01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:15,160
And, you know, I don't know if you've seen this in the different places you've skied.

1047
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:21,000
You know, our variance over time is our bias.

1048
01:12:21,000 --> 01:12:26,120
And so if I'm constantly aggressive and a few days conservative, I have an aggressive

1049
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:28,600
bias.

1050
01:12:28,600 --> 01:12:33,600
And I am by definition unable to see my own blind spots.

1051
01:12:33,600 --> 01:12:37,240
And if you go out with me and we're working with a group together, you can give me that

1052
01:12:37,240 --> 01:12:38,240
feedback.

1053
01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:39,240
I'll be like, oh, really, Larry?

1054
01:12:39,240 --> 01:12:40,440
I thought you wasn't aware of that.

1055
01:12:40,440 --> 01:12:41,440
Oh, shit.

1056
01:12:41,440 --> 01:12:44,080
But for you, it's totally obvious, right?

1057
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:45,880
But that's the definition of a blind spot.

1058
01:12:45,880 --> 01:12:52,520
So if we're biased, it is unconscious and forecast centers around the world will have

1059
01:12:52,520 --> 01:13:00,320
a bias towards, we're going to call it considerable because the snowpack is fundamentally unfavorable.

1060
01:13:00,320 --> 01:13:03,960
And then other forecast centers will have a bias towards, we're dropping it to moderate

1061
01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:10,080
because, you know, natural triggered avalanches are unlikely today.

1062
01:13:10,080 --> 01:13:11,520
So we're going to moderate.

1063
01:13:11,520 --> 01:13:18,360
And that's an interpretation based upon this Uber, less than 1% of the professionals in

1064
01:13:18,360 --> 01:13:22,600
the world, and there's still differences in biases.

1065
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:26,160
And I think that's something that the public's not aware of, but that we talk about as guides.

1066
01:13:26,160 --> 01:13:30,600
And I'll often hear it in Europe where they're like, I would rather ski in France at considerable

1067
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:34,840
than Colorado at moderate because that holds no problem as a bastard.

1068
01:13:34,840 --> 01:13:40,520
And at least in Europe, if it's considerable, it's because they're talking about wind slab

1069
01:13:40,520 --> 01:13:46,320
and I can see it and I can feel it on the surface and I can, I can pivot as necessary.

1070
01:13:46,320 --> 01:13:47,320
Yeah.

1071
01:13:47,320 --> 01:13:56,520
Well, and I think honestly, that's one of the biggest improvements in the avalanche forecasting

1072
01:13:56,520 --> 01:14:02,200
world in recent years is just that we've started talking about avalanche problems.

1073
01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:08,040
And we're not just looking at the hazard rating, but we're talking about the problem because

1074
01:14:08,040 --> 01:14:15,560
you can have way higher confidence when we're dealing with storm slab or even wind slab

1075
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:18,520
then when we're dealing with a persistence slab problem.

1076
01:14:18,520 --> 01:14:26,280
That old snow problem, just like it just baked in such higher uncertainty, how it's distributed

1077
01:14:26,280 --> 01:14:30,200
over the terrain and what it's going to take to trigger that layer.

1078
01:14:30,200 --> 01:14:36,560
And yeah, it just, you just can't outsmart it where it's easy to outsmart a storm slab.

1079
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:44,000
You just stick to mellow terrain, whereas, you know, it's just not as easy to outsmart

1080
01:14:44,000 --> 01:14:45,960
the persistence slab.

1081
01:14:45,960 --> 01:14:49,400
And so I would tell people don't even try.

1082
01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:52,120
But in the end, the solution is the same.

1083
01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:55,480
You just stick to really conservative terrain.

1084
01:14:55,480 --> 01:14:56,480
Yeah.

1085
01:14:56,480 --> 01:14:57,480
Yeah.

1086
01:14:57,480 --> 01:15:01,520
And I think your, your story about the surface horror up in Canada on the hot trip illustrates

1087
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:10,600
that really well where there's a, the mountain guide who designed the Austrian method called

1088
01:15:10,600 --> 01:15:18,560
stop or go is a great interview with the Austrian Alpine Club and they're doing a 20 year retrospective

1089
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:24,040
on, Hey, this is the standard that the public's trained in as are the professionals.

1090
01:15:24,040 --> 01:15:28,960
And as a mountain guide, if I have an accident in Austria, it's going to be held up against

1091
01:15:28,960 --> 01:15:29,960
the standard.

1092
01:15:29,960 --> 01:15:36,480
And if I was in the red of the stop and go data driven algorithmic method, I better have

1093
01:15:36,480 --> 01:15:40,080
really strong reasons to justify why I took my team there.

1094
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:41,080
It better not be.

1095
01:15:41,080 --> 01:15:44,520
Well, I felt good about two pits that I dug.

1096
01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:46,480
The surface horror wasn't present.

1097
01:15:46,480 --> 01:15:52,720
They're like, Hey, if you're in that blacked out critical danger sector, you need to expect

1098
01:15:52,720 --> 01:15:53,720
it to be reactive.

1099
01:15:53,720 --> 01:15:59,440
And his point is as a professional, he's like, my job is to shepherd my group through the

1100
01:15:59,440 --> 01:16:00,440
terrain.

1101
01:16:00,440 --> 01:16:05,920
It is not to be digging pits on the fly and making a reactionary decision of whether we

1102
01:16:05,920 --> 01:16:10,040
ski the slope based on one or two pits at a tea break.

1103
01:16:10,040 --> 01:16:16,160
And he's like the predictive value of that pit for me keeping my team alive is almost

1104
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:19,160
zero.

1105
01:16:19,160 --> 01:16:23,240
It feels truthy in the moment that bias of, Oh, I just got this data.

1106
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:24,240
It's really fresh.

1107
01:16:24,240 --> 01:16:27,640
And he's like, don't get pulled into that.

1108
01:16:27,640 --> 01:16:32,920
You know, the you can't outsmart the weak layer and the bulletin tells you all you need

1109
01:16:32,920 --> 01:16:33,920
to know.

1110
01:16:33,920 --> 01:16:39,120
And the only reason I might be digging is like to see, Oh, we're trying to avoid the

1111
01:16:39,120 --> 01:16:43,520
critical blacked out areas by going south or southwest where the surface horror got

1112
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:44,520
cooked.

1113
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:49,480
But I'm going to dig just to make sure that the bulletin is accurate.

1114
01:16:49,480 --> 01:16:51,000
And oh, shit, we found it here.

1115
01:16:51,000 --> 01:16:52,400
Okay, dial it back.

1116
01:16:52,400 --> 01:16:57,560
You know, that's what he's talking about is like, don't try to be a wizard out there.

1117
01:16:57,560 --> 01:16:59,080
Be a risk manager.

1118
01:16:59,080 --> 01:17:04,720
And the bulletin tells you stay out of these critical danger zones that 95% of the victims

1119
01:17:04,720 --> 01:17:05,720
die in.

1120
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:08,360
It's exactly where it was blacked out.

1121
01:17:08,360 --> 01:17:09,360
Yep.

1122
01:17:09,360 --> 01:17:16,800
Yeah, it makes me think of a recreational avalanche course where I think it was a considerable

1123
01:17:16,800 --> 01:17:19,040
day with Storm slab.

1124
01:17:19,040 --> 01:17:23,680
And as we're putting in our uptrack, we're jumping on all these like steep little rolls

1125
01:17:23,680 --> 01:17:29,240
on boulders and on tiny little slopes, everything's popping off super easily.

1126
01:17:29,240 --> 01:17:35,840
You know, you can grab a shovel full of snow and tap on it and you watch the layer sliding

1127
01:17:35,840 --> 01:17:36,840
on there.

1128
01:17:36,840 --> 01:17:42,320
It's like all of our observations on the way up are pointing toward, yeah, the snow packs

1129
01:17:42,320 --> 01:17:45,320
really unstable right now.

1130
01:17:45,320 --> 01:17:49,920
And then we go through, okay, we're going to teach you guys how to do full profiles

1131
01:17:49,920 --> 01:17:56,560
and we do some profiles and the spot where we chose to dig, we get no results from a

1132
01:17:56,560 --> 01:18:01,520
compression test or an extended column test and people are like, okay, well, looks like

1133
01:18:01,520 --> 01:18:02,520
we're good to go.

1134
01:18:02,520 --> 01:18:03,520
Right.

1135
01:18:03,520 --> 01:18:09,680
It's like, what about everything else that we saw the whole rest of the day today?

1136
01:18:09,680 --> 01:18:13,440
People, you know, we're like, oh yeah, that's true.

1137
01:18:13,440 --> 01:18:21,200
But you know, we hadn't spent an hour in one spot, you know, going deep on the snow right

1138
01:18:21,200 --> 01:18:26,600
there, but somehow we just happened to pick a spot that was more stable than all the places

1139
01:18:26,600 --> 01:18:29,680
we had been elsewhere.

1140
01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:37,200
And I think that's, you know, I don't know what we actually.

1141
01:18:37,200 --> 01:18:41,840
I'm laughing with them because I was guilty of doing that really early.

1142
01:18:41,840 --> 01:18:47,280
Because when I did my early average courses back in the dark ages, that's what we were

1143
01:18:47,280 --> 01:18:49,920
doing was like, hey, we got the forecast.

1144
01:18:49,920 --> 01:18:53,120
Now let's dig on this slope and decide whether we ski it or not.

1145
01:18:53,120 --> 01:18:58,280
And I'm so glad that we've moved away from that paradigm and left that in the dark ages.

1146
01:18:58,280 --> 01:18:59,280
Yeah.

1147
01:18:59,280 --> 01:19:05,440
No, honestly, that's what set me on my path in the avalanche education world was I took

1148
01:19:05,440 --> 01:19:09,680
my first avalanche class and tell your I'd in 1995.

1149
01:19:09,680 --> 01:19:14,440
And you know, the whole class was focused on digging snow profiles.

1150
01:19:14,440 --> 01:19:21,880
And so I remember one time I'm like, skinning around with my girlfriend and we keep getting

1151
01:19:21,880 --> 01:19:22,880
these giant whoops.

1152
01:19:22,880 --> 01:19:27,640
And I'm like, okay, I remember from the class, this means like the snow is unstable.

1153
01:19:27,640 --> 01:19:30,880
So like, let's dig a profile and see what that looks like.

1154
01:19:30,880 --> 01:19:38,560
And so we kind of tuck into the base of this like small slope, you know, 40, 50 foot high

1155
01:19:38,560 --> 01:19:44,680
slope, and I dig a profile and I'm doing all the tests they taught us and like, I'm not

1156
01:19:44,680 --> 01:19:46,200
really getting any results.

1157
01:19:46,200 --> 01:19:48,000
I'm like, I'm so weird.

1158
01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:49,920
I know what to think.

1159
01:19:49,920 --> 01:19:51,280
My girlfriend gets bored.

1160
01:19:51,280 --> 01:19:53,640
She like starts skinning away.

1161
01:19:53,640 --> 01:20:01,560
And as I'm like climbing up out of the profile, I step onto the snow, my bare boots get this

1162
01:20:01,560 --> 01:20:02,960
giant wump.

1163
01:20:02,960 --> 01:20:08,600
The whole slope avalanches down around my feet fills in the hole.

1164
01:20:08,600 --> 01:20:09,600
I just dug.

1165
01:20:09,600 --> 01:20:18,480
I'm like, oh my God, it just pointed out like the folly of trying to like really understand

1166
01:20:18,480 --> 01:20:20,840
from a single hole in the snow.

1167
01:20:20,840 --> 01:20:26,360
Whereas the snowpack had been screaming to us just walking around on it like, hey, really

1168
01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:28,640
unstable structure right here.

1169
01:20:28,640 --> 01:20:34,840
I didn't need to pull out a shovel to see that and in fact pulling out the shovel only

1170
01:20:34,840 --> 01:20:37,520
confused me much more.

1171
01:20:37,520 --> 01:20:38,520
Yeah.

1172
01:20:38,520 --> 01:20:39,520
Yeah.

1173
01:20:39,520 --> 01:20:40,520
The snowpack is screaming in your ear.

1174
01:20:40,520 --> 01:20:41,520
Okay.

1175
01:20:41,520 --> 01:20:46,680
I got to figure this stuff out because this makes no sense.

1176
01:20:46,680 --> 01:20:54,880
So last week, we had some AMGA guides in town, Angela Hawes and Mike Hatcher.

1177
01:20:54,880 --> 01:20:59,600
And so they were pretty psyched to skiing Crest Dubuque because they'd never skied here before.

1178
01:20:59,600 --> 01:21:06,160
And I was putting myself in their ski boots because as we know, there's nothing more dangerous

1179
01:21:06,160 --> 01:21:09,800
than a bunch of guides out on their day off.

1180
01:21:09,800 --> 01:21:12,000
And it was considerable danger.

1181
01:21:12,000 --> 01:21:14,080
The day before it had been high danger.

1182
01:21:14,080 --> 01:21:15,600
So it's super touchy.

1183
01:21:15,600 --> 01:21:16,600
Yeah.

1184
01:21:16,600 --> 01:21:20,040
And we've never toured with each other before.

1185
01:21:20,040 --> 01:21:24,520
And I was like, hey, I'll tell you what, let's all get on the same page.

1186
01:21:24,520 --> 01:21:28,960
I've loaded up all the classic routes in Crest Dubuque on Aspect Abbey so you can go on the

1187
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:32,880
laptop and open up the web app.

1188
01:21:32,880 --> 01:21:38,480
And you guys decide where we're going to go so that I'm not the keeper of the knowledge

1189
01:21:38,480 --> 01:21:41,160
and like trying to thread the needle.

1190
01:21:41,160 --> 01:21:45,160
That makes me really uncomfortable when I'm going to a new zone and it's critically unstable

1191
01:21:45,160 --> 01:21:47,240
with people I haven't toured before.

1192
01:21:47,240 --> 01:21:51,480
I want big buffers and I've seen it go wrong so many times.

1193
01:21:51,480 --> 01:21:56,800
And so it was pretty cool where Angela picked out where we were going to go and it was exactly

1194
01:21:56,800 --> 01:21:58,160
where I was going to have us go.

1195
01:21:58,160 --> 01:22:03,760
So of like the 50 runs on there, it was like she picked the exact same one that I was going

1196
01:22:03,760 --> 01:22:05,080
to do because it was in the clear.

1197
01:22:05,080 --> 01:22:07,440
It wasn't in the red.

1198
01:22:07,440 --> 01:22:08,680
And Mike totally agreed.

1199
01:22:08,680 --> 01:22:09,840
And that took us three minutes.

1200
01:22:09,840 --> 01:22:11,080
And we were on the same page.

1201
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:13,800
And then we had a wild card come in.

1202
01:22:13,800 --> 01:22:15,400
And it was a really experienced local.

1203
01:22:15,400 --> 01:22:16,920
It was a phenomenal skier.

1204
01:22:16,920 --> 01:22:21,000
The ski comps all over the North America.

1205
01:22:21,000 --> 01:22:26,880
And as we were going up, we got like a dozen booming collapses up this low angle ridge.

1206
01:22:26,880 --> 01:22:29,480
So it's death to our left, death to our right.

1207
01:22:29,480 --> 01:22:33,960
And we're on this prow, this rib of under 30 degrees because we said, we're not going

1208
01:22:33,960 --> 01:22:34,960
over 30 degrees today.

1209
01:22:34,960 --> 01:22:37,600
We're going to stay out of the runout zones.

1210
01:22:37,600 --> 01:22:40,440
And we're getting all these booming collapses.

1211
01:22:40,440 --> 01:22:48,600
And the person who's not a guide said, hey, what if we skied over there on the North Face

1212
01:22:48,600 --> 01:22:50,280
and do those pillow drops?

1213
01:22:50,280 --> 01:22:51,880
They're not particularly big.

1214
01:22:51,880 --> 01:22:54,240
They're kind of small start zones.

1215
01:22:54,240 --> 01:22:57,640
And all three of us were like, oh, hell no.

1216
01:22:57,640 --> 01:23:01,200
The snowpack is screaming at us.

1217
01:23:01,200 --> 01:23:06,800
Like there's not enough money in the world to go tickle those small avalanche zones because

1218
01:23:06,800 --> 01:23:09,840
they're like certainly big enough and rake through the trees.

1219
01:23:09,840 --> 01:23:12,480
And it was such a different perspective.

1220
01:23:12,480 --> 01:23:13,760
It was really interesting.

1221
01:23:13,760 --> 01:23:20,200
And I think it was very comforting where Angela spoke up and said, hey, we already

1222
01:23:20,200 --> 01:23:22,040
made our tour plan.

1223
01:23:22,040 --> 01:23:24,400
We are not deviating from it.

1224
01:23:24,400 --> 01:23:26,680
We're going to stay out of avalanche terrain.

1225
01:23:26,680 --> 01:23:28,520
We're locked in on that.

1226
01:23:28,520 --> 01:23:32,720
If you'd like to do a different tour, go ahead, but we're not going.

1227
01:23:32,720 --> 01:23:40,200
It was quite comforting to see that my guides day off experience is finally evolving from,

1228
01:23:40,200 --> 01:23:44,960
oh, let's push it right to the limit because it's a highly trained group to let's give

1229
01:23:44,960 --> 01:23:48,000
ourselves plenty of buffer because why?

1230
01:23:48,000 --> 01:23:49,200
We just don't want to be stressed.

1231
01:23:49,200 --> 01:23:53,000
We want to have fun and be relaxed.

1232
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:59,600
You know, I feel like that's exactly what we talked about earlier when we said so many

1233
01:23:59,600 --> 01:24:05,080
recreational groups do is they just go out there with this loose idea.

1234
01:24:05,080 --> 01:24:11,160
And then when that person who almost by definition of what you described, they do ski comps,

1235
01:24:11,160 --> 01:24:17,360
like they have a higher risk tolerance than a lot of us are willing to jump off big things

1236
01:24:17,360 --> 01:24:20,960
and ski super fast, right?

1237
01:24:20,960 --> 01:24:29,400
They throw out this idea and it subjects the group to this pressure of like, hey, I'm

1238
01:24:29,400 --> 01:24:30,400
a good skier.

1239
01:24:30,400 --> 01:24:31,800
Hey, I can do this.

1240
01:24:31,800 --> 01:24:39,960
And suddenly there's a lot more emotion in the decision making than we want there to

1241
01:24:39,960 --> 01:24:41,120
be.

1242
01:24:41,120 --> 01:24:45,720
When it comes to the single critical decision that we get to make every day, which is where

1243
01:24:45,720 --> 01:24:47,000
are we going to go?

1244
01:24:47,000 --> 01:24:54,640
We want that done with as little emotion involved as possible.

1245
01:24:54,640 --> 01:24:58,600
And you know, you nailed it there because there was a disconnect because it was a last

1246
01:24:58,600 --> 01:25:04,680
minute ad and Angela and Mike were over for Curry at my house that night.

1247
01:25:04,680 --> 01:25:08,800
And even though we had each had like two glasses of wine and I am such a lightweight, I was

1248
01:25:08,800 --> 01:25:13,080
just like, oh my gosh, I'm you guys playing the tour.

1249
01:25:13,080 --> 01:25:17,400
We all have the same data because we're all looking at the web app and it was very clear

1250
01:25:17,400 --> 01:25:19,840
which runs were in the red.

1251
01:25:19,840 --> 01:25:24,400
And Angela was like, hey, there's only about five runs that aren't in the red zone for

1252
01:25:24,400 --> 01:25:25,400
tomorrow.

1253
01:25:25,400 --> 01:25:26,400
It's considerable danger.

1254
01:25:26,400 --> 01:25:29,960
We stay out of the Lanshtrain and these face north.

1255
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:30,960
Let's go there.

1256
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:38,800
And the fourth person didn't have the information coming in and didn't have that kind of operational

1257
01:25:38,800 --> 01:25:42,720
mindset of we do our run less before we leave.

1258
01:25:42,720 --> 01:25:46,560
We can only go more conservative, but we are not going more aggressive.

1259
01:25:46,560 --> 01:25:53,200
So it was like a cultural and disconnect, but also not having that same information to level

1260
01:25:53,200 --> 01:25:57,840
the playing field so that two folks from out of town who have never been here before have

1261
01:25:57,840 --> 01:26:00,520
the exact same information that I'm going off of.

1262
01:26:00,520 --> 01:26:06,160
And we can get to agreement in minutes and just be like easy done.

1263
01:26:06,160 --> 01:26:07,320
Yeah, done.

1264
01:26:07,320 --> 01:26:11,720
Hey, so Larry, I could literally talk to you all day.

1265
01:26:11,720 --> 01:26:13,920
But we're coming up on an hour and a half.

1266
01:26:13,920 --> 01:26:17,440
So let me ask you briefly.

1267
01:26:17,440 --> 01:26:21,360
Tell me about your role at Evoque coaching mountain athletes.

1268
01:26:21,360 --> 01:26:22,360
Yeah.

1269
01:26:22,360 --> 01:26:28,480
So Scott Johnson has been one of my closest friends and a long time climbing and skiing

1270
01:26:28,480 --> 01:26:33,240
partner for several decades.

1271
01:26:33,240 --> 01:26:40,040
And so, you know, he's written several books about training for Alpine climbing and training

1272
01:26:40,040 --> 01:26:45,680
for endurance sports, mountain running, ski mo, you know, training for the new Alpinism

1273
01:26:45,680 --> 01:26:48,120
and training for the uphill athlete.

1274
01:26:48,120 --> 01:26:56,640
Then he co-founded the company uphill athlete and which fairly quickly turned into a coaching

1275
01:26:56,640 --> 01:26:57,840
business.

1276
01:26:57,840 --> 01:27:02,680
And Scott has helped me back in the day when you and I were going through our guides exams.

1277
01:27:02,680 --> 01:27:07,120
Scott really helped train me to prepare for those exams.

1278
01:27:07,120 --> 01:27:12,960
And honestly, like, that's probably the height of my fitness ever.

1279
01:27:12,960 --> 01:27:13,960
Yeah.

1280
01:27:13,960 --> 01:27:18,480
Is, you know, when I had some real structure to my training in addition to just being out

1281
01:27:18,480 --> 01:27:20,040
there all the time.

1282
01:27:20,040 --> 01:27:25,500
And so, you know, whenever we'd go out on adventures, we would often wind up talking,

1283
01:27:25,500 --> 01:27:27,000
training methodology.

1284
01:27:27,000 --> 01:27:36,920
And I would often train with Scott in the shoulder seasons when I wasn't busy guiding.

1285
01:27:36,920 --> 01:27:42,760
And then a few years back, we started talking and Scott was asking me like, well, how long

1286
01:27:42,760 --> 01:27:44,720
do you think you can keep guiding for?

1287
01:27:44,720 --> 01:27:46,920
And, you know, what's your exit strategy?

1288
01:27:46,920 --> 01:27:47,920
Oh, wow.

1289
01:27:47,920 --> 01:27:52,440
And he's like, yeah, I really don't have one.

1290
01:27:52,440 --> 01:27:58,640
And my wife and I always joke that we've been living in semi-retirement for a year, so we're

1291
01:27:58,640 --> 01:28:02,000
just going to work until we're dead at this point.

1292
01:28:02,000 --> 01:28:08,320
And so a few years ago, Scott said, hey, you know, you should consider coaching for us.

1293
01:28:08,320 --> 01:28:12,520
You know, I could train you in sort of the methodologies.

1294
01:28:12,520 --> 01:28:19,380
You already understand a lot of these principles, but you could continue to do it while you're

1295
01:28:19,380 --> 01:28:20,720
working as a guide.

1296
01:28:20,720 --> 01:28:24,040
You don't have to commit to doing it full time.

1297
01:28:24,040 --> 01:28:28,320
And then when you want to cut back on your guiding, you'll have this other thing that

1298
01:28:28,320 --> 01:28:30,680
you can continue to do for many years.

1299
01:28:30,680 --> 01:28:37,280
And he said, honestly, one of the biggest things about coaching, much like guiding, is

1300
01:28:37,280 --> 01:28:40,360
that the job is about working with people.

1301
01:28:40,360 --> 01:28:45,760
You know, so you and I, we're not professional skiers or professional climbers, we're professional

1302
01:28:45,760 --> 01:28:46,760
guides, right?

1303
01:28:46,760 --> 01:28:53,680
We can facilitate people and the medium that we're using is climbing and skiing.

1304
01:28:53,680 --> 01:28:59,000
And so coaching shares a lot of that where you have to be good with working with people

1305
01:28:59,000 --> 01:29:03,480
and then understanding some basic training philosophies.

1306
01:29:03,480 --> 01:29:10,200
Well, you know, Scott didn't invent, but he has really helped to just streamline.

1307
01:29:10,200 --> 01:29:16,600
And yeah, so I work with athletes, I would say primarily in the mountaineering world,

1308
01:29:16,600 --> 01:29:22,560
but also in the ski touring world, I work with a handful of guides that are either training

1309
01:29:22,560 --> 01:29:27,720
for guides, exams or training for big personal objectives they have coming up in their off

1310
01:29:27,720 --> 01:29:31,680
season from guiding.

1311
01:29:31,680 --> 01:29:37,720
But yeah, all kind of mountain sports people at evoke, we really only train people for

1312
01:29:37,720 --> 01:29:38,820
mountain sports.

1313
01:29:38,820 --> 01:29:47,760
So everything from alpine climbing, mountaineering, ski touring, ultra running, you know, we're

1314
01:29:47,760 --> 01:29:55,720
not training triathletes, we're not training cyclists or swimmers or, you know, really

1315
01:29:55,720 --> 01:29:58,120
any other style of athletes.

1316
01:29:58,120 --> 01:30:05,480
And we tend to try to pair people up with a coach that knows that sport really well.

1317
01:30:05,480 --> 01:30:11,320
So you know, people that want to go ski touring in the Alps, they'll often send to me because

1318
01:30:11,320 --> 01:30:19,080
I've done so many of those trips or, you know, so yeah.

1319
01:30:19,080 --> 01:30:24,960
Maybe the people fail to understand how specific the sport demands are, and that'll come through

1320
01:30:24,960 --> 01:30:30,000
oftentimes when clients are booking a trip and they'll say, oh yeah, I'm an Ironman triathlete

1321
01:30:30,000 --> 01:30:35,040
and I'm like, there's no way I could run a marathon, my legs would fall off and there's

1322
01:30:35,040 --> 01:30:42,560
no way my butt wouldn't fall off riding 112 miles and I'd drown on that two mile swim,

1323
01:30:42,560 --> 01:30:51,440
but it is amazing to see at altitude, throwing time zone change and you're on a six day,

1324
01:30:51,440 --> 01:30:57,680
seven day hut to hut tour and they're falling apart because the demands of the sport are

1325
01:30:57,680 --> 01:31:05,240
so specific and they haven't shifted their training to fit the demands of the sport.

1326
01:31:05,240 --> 01:31:11,040
And I think that's where taking a mountain athlete approach and being like, hey, let's

1327
01:31:11,040 --> 01:31:15,920
really zero in on your goals and tailor it and find out what your strengths and weaknesses

1328
01:31:15,920 --> 01:31:22,480
are already, leverage the strengths and ruthlessly train the weaknesses and get really prepared

1329
01:31:22,480 --> 01:31:24,880
for this trip you're going for.

1330
01:31:24,880 --> 01:31:29,280
So you're not just surviving and hanging on, you're thriving and enjoying it.

1331
01:31:29,280 --> 01:31:31,440
This is a trip of a lifetime.

1332
01:31:31,440 --> 01:31:34,680
You want to really get the most out of it.

1333
01:31:34,680 --> 01:31:35,680
Absolutely.

1334
01:31:35,680 --> 01:31:36,680
Now you're exactly right.

1335
01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:41,920
It's so much of it comes down to specificity of training so that especially in the later

1336
01:31:41,920 --> 01:31:48,280
phases of your training, your training looks a lot like the event that you are training

1337
01:31:48,280 --> 01:31:51,640
for and then you're exactly right.

1338
01:31:51,640 --> 01:31:53,840
We work with a lot of guide services.

1339
01:31:53,840 --> 01:32:01,440
They send clients to us to help them get ready for big climbs or big expeditions so that

1340
01:32:01,440 --> 01:32:06,200
the people have just a high chance of success and whether or not they get to the top of

1341
01:32:06,200 --> 01:32:10,040
the mountain, they can actually enjoy the time they're out there.

1342
01:32:10,040 --> 01:32:14,120
They're not just hanging on and suffering the whole time.

1343
01:32:14,120 --> 01:32:21,520
So and yeah, since I've been doing it, I get a lot of satisfaction out of it.

1344
01:32:21,520 --> 01:32:27,440
Similar to guiding in that you develop these really close personal relationships with people

1345
01:32:27,440 --> 01:32:34,560
and you get to help them achieve these long sought after goals.

1346
01:32:34,560 --> 01:32:41,240
But more so than guiding like literally with my coached athletes, we have some almost daily

1347
01:32:41,240 --> 01:32:49,480
contact so I know about their families and what they like to do and their jobs.

1348
01:32:49,480 --> 01:32:51,520
You really get to know these people.

1349
01:32:51,520 --> 01:32:54,120
They become good friends.

1350
01:32:54,120 --> 01:32:57,640
So yeah, that's something I really appreciate about that work.

1351
01:32:57,640 --> 01:33:07,280
Yeah, I can see that cross out climbing and skiing with perfect synergy.

1352
01:33:07,280 --> 01:33:08,960
Yeah, it's so satisfying.

1353
01:33:08,960 --> 01:33:15,640
I think for me, I've had basically 30 years of hardcore adventuring skiing climbing.

1354
01:33:15,640 --> 01:33:20,720
So it's really hard to move the needle and be like, Oh, that was an exceptional day just

1355
01:33:20,720 --> 01:33:23,240
because I've had so many good days in the mountains.

1356
01:33:23,240 --> 01:33:29,400
I've been incredibly privileged, but what I find now is it's more rewarding to facilitate

1357
01:33:29,400 --> 01:33:36,240
an experience and help someone build towards their goals and set them up to realize the

1358
01:33:36,240 --> 01:33:37,240
goals.

1359
01:33:37,240 --> 01:33:39,480
Yeah, that is so rewarding.

1360
01:33:39,480 --> 01:33:44,920
That's more rewarding than a great powder day or a great climbing day personally for me.

1361
01:33:44,920 --> 01:33:47,640
Yeah, no, I completely agree.

1362
01:33:47,640 --> 01:33:48,640
Yeah.

1363
01:33:48,640 --> 01:33:55,200
I think one of the things inherent in that is what I've seen training is like this long

1364
01:33:55,200 --> 01:33:56,640
term project.

1365
01:33:56,640 --> 01:34:01,840
It takes a while to kind of move the needle and to build fitness and to see those gains.

1366
01:34:01,840 --> 01:34:09,800
And so having a goal out there is such an important thing no matter who you are or what

1367
01:34:09,800 --> 01:34:10,960
you're training for.

1368
01:34:10,960 --> 01:34:13,320
And it's like been interesting.

1369
01:34:13,320 --> 01:34:21,240
I try not to coach my wife, and she's a pretty good athlete, but recently she saw another

1370
01:34:21,240 --> 01:34:29,320
mutual friend of ours do this incredible endurance event over in Europe, multi-day stage race.

1371
01:34:29,320 --> 01:34:32,880
And she was like, I need a goal.

1372
01:34:32,880 --> 01:34:38,040
And so we kind of developed this goal together, something her and I could do together.

1373
01:34:38,040 --> 01:34:45,880
And like since she's had a goal, she's been so much more disciplined about making sure

1374
01:34:45,880 --> 01:34:49,560
she's training five days a week.

1375
01:34:49,560 --> 01:34:52,080
She's just like before it was kind of a hit or miss.

1376
01:34:52,080 --> 01:34:54,080
She fitted in when she could.

1377
01:34:54,080 --> 01:34:59,480
She always tried to get exercise, but now then there's a difference between exercise and

1378
01:34:59,480 --> 01:35:01,160
training, right?

1379
01:35:01,160 --> 01:35:04,680
Which I think a lot of people don't meet that distinction.

1380
01:35:04,680 --> 01:35:11,080
And having a goal can help you make sure like all training is exercise, but not all exercise

1381
01:35:11,080 --> 01:35:12,080
is training.

1382
01:35:12,080 --> 01:35:16,720
And so, you know, with the limited time we all have, you want to make sure the stuff

1383
01:35:16,720 --> 01:35:21,640
you're doing is actually moving you closer to that goal.

1384
01:35:21,640 --> 01:35:28,160
And so that's something I really appreciate about coaching is just helping people do that.

1385
01:35:28,160 --> 01:35:29,160
Yeah.

1386
01:35:29,160 --> 01:35:30,160
Yeah.

1387
01:35:30,160 --> 01:35:34,640
Hey, Larry, I've put you in the hot seat and peppered you with a whole bunch of questions.

1388
01:35:34,640 --> 01:35:38,480
Because none of this was canned so you didn't know what was coming.

1389
01:35:38,480 --> 01:35:43,560
Do you have any questions for me or one question for me?

1390
01:35:43,560 --> 01:35:46,960
Because we've been talking for a while.

1391
01:35:46,960 --> 01:35:47,960
Yeah.

1392
01:35:47,960 --> 01:36:01,960
Yeah, you know, I've been playing with the app that you developed and been kind of sharing

1393
01:36:01,960 --> 01:36:07,120
it with other people and one of the questions that just came out recently is I have a number

1394
01:36:07,120 --> 01:36:14,880
of friends in Canada that are wondering if they can expect at any point to see the app

1395
01:36:14,880 --> 01:36:18,280
being available up there.

1396
01:36:18,280 --> 01:36:23,320
And, you know, I actually initially thought it was in a friend of mine that I was just

1397
01:36:23,320 --> 01:36:24,320
talking with.

1398
01:36:24,320 --> 01:36:25,880
I was like, oh, let me zone in on your area.

1399
01:36:25,880 --> 01:36:30,640
And I was like, oh, it's there's no avalanche forecast on the app.

1400
01:36:30,640 --> 01:36:34,240
And so, yeah, I was curious about that.

1401
01:36:34,240 --> 01:36:37,720
And just, fortunately, rain there is up there.

1402
01:36:37,720 --> 01:36:38,720
Yeah.

1403
01:36:38,720 --> 01:36:39,720
Yeah.

1404
01:36:39,720 --> 01:36:45,200
Unfortunately, Canada is really far behind the US on its lidar mapping.

1405
01:36:45,200 --> 01:36:46,600
So that's laser mapping.

1406
01:36:46,600 --> 01:36:54,200
And that's the high-resolution mapping where they shoot 18 lasers per one meter tiles.

1407
01:36:54,200 --> 01:36:58,960
And that's what we absolutely have to have is high-resolution mapping.

1408
01:36:58,960 --> 01:37:04,680
And so I don't know how many years until Canada starts to get many of the ski zones mapped.

1409
01:37:04,680 --> 01:37:10,080
Right now, they have a couple urban areas mapped, but very little in the back country

1410
01:37:10,080 --> 01:37:13,720
that overlaps where we would go riding.

1411
01:37:13,720 --> 01:37:18,360
So I'll have to get back to you, but it'll be a couple years.

1412
01:37:18,360 --> 01:37:23,880
The countries that are fast on the laser mapping are Switzerland and Norway.

1413
01:37:23,880 --> 01:37:28,000
So those will be the next places where you try to expect to have me.

1414
01:37:28,000 --> 01:37:29,000
Yeah.

1415
01:37:29,000 --> 01:37:30,000
Be able to use that.

1416
01:37:30,000 --> 01:37:31,000
Until you guys wind up.

1417
01:37:31,000 --> 01:37:32,000
Yeah.

1418
01:37:32,000 --> 01:37:33,000
It's got to be high-resolution mapping.

1419
01:37:33,000 --> 01:37:34,000
Yeah.

1420
01:37:34,000 --> 01:37:42,400
And you're probably looking at investing in some planes that can do this lidar mapping

1421
01:37:42,400 --> 01:37:45,360
under the auspices of Aspect Avi, right?

1422
01:37:45,360 --> 01:37:48,840
Are you acquiring your planes?

1423
01:37:48,840 --> 01:37:49,840
Yeah.

1424
01:37:49,840 --> 01:37:52,640
It's incredibly expensive for them to gather that data.

1425
01:37:52,640 --> 01:37:58,120
So we'll just wait till the USGS makes it available for free or the Canadian version.

1426
01:37:58,120 --> 01:37:59,120
Yeah.

1427
01:37:59,120 --> 01:38:06,240
But it brings up an interesting point where I think operationally, like if you had a

1428
01:38:06,240 --> 01:38:13,440
heli-operation in Canada, you could actually map out your own zone and then have your own

1429
01:38:13,440 --> 01:38:16,440
version of Aspect Avi that's in-house proprietary.

1430
01:38:16,440 --> 01:38:19,720
And then you can set your parameters.

1431
01:38:19,720 --> 01:38:22,800
And I think for guides meetings, it's really tough.

1432
01:38:22,800 --> 01:38:26,360
You mentioned before, like if you're working in a large tenure, like I think you said North

1433
01:38:26,360 --> 01:38:28,800
Cascades is like 30 square miles, right?

1434
01:38:28,800 --> 01:38:29,800
About that?

1435
01:38:29,800 --> 01:38:30,800
Yeah.

1436
01:38:30,800 --> 01:38:31,800
Yeah.

1437
01:38:31,800 --> 01:38:35,240
So that's really big, but some of the Canadian operations are even larger.

1438
01:38:35,240 --> 01:38:40,240
And when you green light a run, it doesn't mean that you can ski everything on that

1439
01:38:40,240 --> 01:38:42,920
mountain.

1440
01:38:42,920 --> 01:38:48,360
It means it's like, okay, the guide needs to choose the terrain appropriately.

1441
01:38:48,360 --> 01:38:53,720
However, it's so much easier for people to visualize it where if you can see, oh yeah,

1442
01:38:53,720 --> 01:39:00,360
half the run is in the red and then the slight aspect change to the south, that's in the

1443
01:39:00,360 --> 01:39:01,360
clear.

1444
01:39:01,360 --> 01:39:03,280
Okay, that's lower angle.

1445
01:39:03,280 --> 01:39:04,280
We're going to ski there.

1446
01:39:04,280 --> 01:39:07,000
And I think it's a great visualization tools for morning meetings.

1447
01:39:07,000 --> 01:39:12,600
So you can be like, oh yeah, whatever the name of the run is, the left side is closed,

1448
01:39:12,600 --> 01:39:14,400
but the right side is open.

1449
01:39:14,400 --> 01:39:16,320
So that's really cool.

1450
01:39:16,320 --> 01:39:25,880
And then lastly, Larry, how can people get a hold of you if they want to engage your

1451
01:39:25,880 --> 01:39:30,440
services as a mountain guide or get coached as a mountain athlete?

1452
01:39:30,440 --> 01:39:34,600
What's the best way to get a hold of you?

1453
01:39:34,600 --> 01:39:41,360
People can find me through either my company's website, North Cascades Mountain Guides or

1454
01:39:41,360 --> 01:39:43,360
Evoke Endurance.

1455
01:39:43,360 --> 01:39:52,320
Both those companies on Larry at NC Mountain Guides and Larry at EvokeEndurance.com.

1456
01:39:52,320 --> 01:39:57,640
You can find me on social media, but you'll wonder if something happened to me because

1457
01:39:57,640 --> 01:40:01,880
I'm not super active on there.

1458
01:40:01,880 --> 01:40:07,280
So yeah, email or the websites are probably the best way to track me down.

1459
01:40:07,280 --> 01:40:08,800
Okay, great.

1460
01:40:08,800 --> 01:40:12,240
And then they can also listen to you on a podcast, right?

1461
01:40:12,240 --> 01:40:20,200
Yeah, so the Evokecast is our in-house podcast at Evoke Endurance.

1462
01:40:20,200 --> 01:40:24,720
And yeah, I've been the host of quite a number of them.

1463
01:40:24,720 --> 01:40:31,360
All of the coaches kind of take turns, but it's largely focused on training for mountain

1464
01:40:31,360 --> 01:40:34,680
athletes, but we've branched out a bit from that.

1465
01:40:34,680 --> 01:40:40,800
And it's just topics of interest for mountain athletes.

1466
01:40:40,800 --> 01:40:44,880
But certainly with a heavy bias toward training philosophy.

1467
01:40:44,880 --> 01:40:48,760
So yeah, I think that could be of interest to a lot of people out there.

1468
01:40:48,760 --> 01:40:54,520
Yeah, great place to go geek out and hear new ideas and a little bit of banter.

1469
01:40:54,520 --> 01:40:55,520
Yeah, cool.

1470
01:40:55,520 --> 01:40:56,520
Yeah.

1471
01:40:56,520 --> 01:40:57,880
Larry, thanks so much for joining us.

1472
01:40:57,880 --> 01:40:58,880
Really appreciate it.

1473
01:40:58,880 --> 01:40:59,880
Yeah, you're welcome.

1474
01:40:59,880 --> 01:41:01,360
It's great to be here with you.

1475
01:41:01,360 --> 01:41:02,880
Thanks for having me, Jeff.

1476
01:41:02,880 --> 01:41:03,880
All right.

1477
01:41:03,880 --> 01:41:04,880
Cheers, Larry.

1478
01:41:04,880 --> 01:41:05,880
Thanks.

1479
01:41:05,880 --> 01:41:06,880
Take care.

1480
01:41:06,880 --> 01:41:08,380
Thank you so much for listening to All Aspects.

1481
01:41:08,380 --> 01:41:11,000
If you like what we're doing here, please leave a rating and review.

1482
01:41:11,000 --> 01:41:13,720
It really is the best way to help others find the show.

1483
01:41:13,720 --> 01:41:16,880
Thanks again to our business daddy, Aspect Abbey, for making this show possible.

1484
01:41:16,880 --> 01:41:21,640
To learn more about how Aspect Abbey is making avalanche safety simple, go to aspectabbey.com.

1485
01:41:21,640 --> 01:41:25,840
If you want to use this powerful new tool on your next backcountry adventure, simply

1486
01:41:25,840 --> 01:41:29,880
download the app from the app store and enjoy 30 days free on them.

1487
01:41:29,880 --> 01:41:33,320
Lastly, special thanks to Ice Lab for helping us produce this show.

1488
01:41:33,320 --> 01:41:36,120
You guys rock and we couldn't do without you.

1489
01:41:36,120 --> 01:41:38,440
Thanks again for listening and we'll see you in the backcountry.