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Good afternoon, dear viewers.
Welcome to the sixth episode

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of the New Magazine podcast
entitled Coal phase out in the

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Western Balkans. I will host today
Stefan Vladisavljev, Program

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Director of the Foundation BFPE
for a Responsible Society, who has

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been dealing with international
relations for years, especially

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China and its role in
global businesses.

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Our today's topic will be the
challenges that await us in

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terms of energy transition, especially
in the light of geopolitical turmoil

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and context. We will also touch upon
the issue of critical raw materials,

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as well as the impact of Western
Balkans with this regard, especially

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when it comes to energy
transition within the EU.

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The podcast realization has been
supported by the Open Society

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Foundations for Western Balkans, you
can follow it on our YouTube Channel.

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Additionally, those podcasts are
available on other podcast platforms

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such as Spotify, Deezer
and Apple Podcast.

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I'm using this opportunity to urge you
to follow us on Instagram and TikTok.

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I hope that you will
enjoy today's episode.

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Good afternoon, Stefan.
-Good afternoon.

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Thank you for responding positively
to my invitation to host you here.

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Please, introduce yourself to
the audience first, and tell us

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something about yourself.
-Damir, thank you for having me.

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My name is Stefan Vladisavljev,
Program Director of the Foundation

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BFPE for a Responsible Society,
it's an NGO with 20 years of

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experience in working in civil sector,
with a wide portfolio of activities.

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The viewers of New Magazine
channels might recognize me

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as a host of the podcast entitled
Understanding Steel Friendship,

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that is still available on YouTube
Channel of New Magazine,

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so please follow YouTube
Channel of New Magazine,

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as well as Instagram and Spotify,
where you can find audio files.

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It is a great pleasure to join you
today and discuss a topic that

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I regard highly interesting
and relevant issue.

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Thank you. In this podcast, in
general, we deal with decarbonization

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and coal phase-out on
the Western Balkans.

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However, we cannot discuss this
issue without wider geopolitical

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dimension. Simply, our strategic
interest, as we defined it within

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Western Balkans, in Serbia, but also
in other countries and economies,

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we have agreed that EU integration
path is our right path that we took.

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In view of geopolitical turmoil,
the war in Ukraine and Middle East,

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the cases of civil wars
and protests worldwide...

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EU tries to position itself
towards it in a way...

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In all this crisis, they stick to
their development strategy,

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i.e. the Green Deal. It's questionable
whether they will succed in it.

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Can you tell us something more on
general geopolitical circumstances

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on the international level, pertaining
to energy and energy security that

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had become top priority
on the political agenda

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of practically every
state in the world.

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Geopolitics is often a good litmus
test for the various policies

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that major world powers
are trying to implement.

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We have all of it defined within
diverse strategic and action plans.

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Very slight geopolitical shifts can
cause major political strikes,

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that is, they can be caused by things
that are not necessarily foreseen,

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as you might develop a strategy
during peaceful period, and now

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we witness that there are
several focal points, that

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have been going on
all over the world.

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The fact is that security issue is
under direct influence of geopolitical

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circumstances, and nowadays
security cannot be perceived

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without the aspect of energy security.
Can we call it energy transition in

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time of crisis, or should we talk
about some kind of protectionism...

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We have to look at it through the
prism of the most important partners

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and their conflicts, whether through
direct conflicts or through different

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implementation of politics on
the geopolitical agenda.

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All of this brings us to the almost
concrete answer to your question.

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The postulates of energy transition,
postulates of reducing negative aspects

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of the energy sector for each state
remain the principle by which states

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are guided, but given geopolitical
turmoil, to the increase in the

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presence of certain actors on the
global market, those postulates

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are subject to being adapted
within present geopolitical context.

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Great. Can you tell us more on
the attitude and strategies of the

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actors. There's Russia that uses
natural gas as political weapon,

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China has been financing diverse
projects, primarily fossil fuels in

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worldwide, but renewable energy
projects are slowly making their way.

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USA has its one agenda,
and European Union has its own.

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Can you give us a short comment
on every acter involved in this?

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What I find interesting in this
context, about strategic action

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at the global level, as we observed
Russia diametrically opposite,

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despite all criticism directed towards
democracy and authoritarian actions

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even prior to the conflicts or
Russian aggression in Ukraine.

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Simply, no major differences took
place, apart from the fact that

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Russia had conveyed aggression.
So, this brings us to the high level

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of dependence primarily between
EU states and Russia...

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And we regard it through the prism
of conflict, so at some point,

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so European countries were ready
to shoot themselves in the foot

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as they politicaly decided to help
Ukraine, condemning Russia.

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We are talking in the context of
Russian gas and Russian oil...

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While the states who continue
cooperating with Russia found

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themselves under criticism, here
I primarily refer to the European

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states and the states
on the verge of Europe.

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It is also interesting what you
mentioned pertaining to China.

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I would like to give an example
referring to the Republic of Serbia.

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Namely, back in 2018, it might be
2019, I'm confident that five years

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had gone by, Chinese Communist
Party made a decision that projects

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that pertain to the dirty energy
sources will not be financed with

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Chinese money. Coal thermal power
plants will no longer be modernized

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or build with Chinese funds,
outside of Chinese borders.

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Moreover, they say, sorry for
interrupting, that if some countries

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in the case of lower standards,
Chinese standards will be applied.

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It is certainly something that
changes the prism of perceiving China

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on a geopolitical level, and
this is particularly interesting

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for the context of Serbia. Namely,
even before that decision, as the

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contract was signed prior to that,
modernization and construction of

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new capacities in the thermal power
plant Kostolac, but at the moment

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when the decision was made,
all negotiations on modernization

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and construction of new capacities of
power plant Kolubara were terminated.

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It indicates that even the partners
that we observe with concern

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in view of their growth, and
the specific political system,

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internally have a kind of
responsibility towards global trends.

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The United States of America acts
at the global level with a lot of

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protectionism, something that
is in line with their policies,

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and it's expected that this level of
protectionism will be even higher.

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After Donald Trump coming to power,
it will be officially in January 2025,

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but even prior to that, the USA
strives to be self-sustainable

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and self-sufficient
in the field of energy,

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so we are left with European Union,
which took the most progressive

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positions on the value level, but
certainly due to the challenges

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it faces, primarily due to the high
level of dependence on Russian gas,

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until 2022, energy transition and
green policy remains a top priority.

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Each of these countries has a
specific position on the global level,

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I'm certain that we will discuss
it further in this episode,

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but it is very important for me to
mention that that everything must be

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viewed through one complex
system and standards,

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and different events must
be taken into account that

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are not necessarily related only to
energy, but are certainly related to

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and affect this area as well, even
though they are not directly related.

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Whether to renewable energy
sources, or strategies in this field,

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due to political consequences they're
included in this policy as an addition.

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The complexity of the international
system is really huge, so we cannot

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reduce everything to one point,
and as for EU, what is your comment

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on the competitiveness of their
industry, especially in renewable

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energy sources, they are
facing a crisis, as the report

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on competitiveness was submitted
by Mario Draghi recently to the EC.

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Although it is a leader in the
fight against climate change,

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the European Union is losing
its technological superiority.

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We witness that China is becoming and
has already become a leading country

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in the sale of electric vehicles.
Serious tariffs and bans on

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the import of electric vehicles
from China have been mentioned,

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in order to protect the industry.
What is your comment to this?

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The same goes for the Americans,
who subsidize their manufacturers...

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The same goes for the Chinese.
Europe is trying to limit subsidies,

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trying to solve the problem through
The Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA).

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There we see a clear lack of
competitiveness for a couple of years,

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and after the 2022 crisis,
it is an even steeper decline.

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In what way they could defend
themselves? Are those measures

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are good or not, what
would be the consequences?

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EU acts from a rather unfavorable
starting position, why is that so?

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Now, we are coming to the argument
of strategic autonomy.

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This is a consequence of the fact
that European union had established

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its position in the way of creating
economic interdependence,

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in various fields, but it's primarily
economic interdependence,

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with all relevant partners
on the global level.

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I would like to shed light on
foreign policy, at this point.

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It is important in order to understand
relations you've already mentioned.

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With the coming to power of Ursula
von der Leyen in 2019 within EC,

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EU has slightly changed its principle
of relations and developing

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cooperation with the People's
Republic of China.

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There was more and more talk
about certain rivalries in the area

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values, in the area of politics,
however, when it comes to the

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field of economics, China was
still referred to as partner.

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In the broader context, I will include
energy in economy at this moment.

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With an economic boom, especially
in the automobile industries of

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the People's Republic of China,
in the field of electric cars, taking

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over the primacy on the global
market, that partnership was

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increasingly burdened by taxes.
I want to mention Serbia briefly,

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Serbia as a candidate country for
EU accession, should harmonize

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its economic policies with
the European Union.

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While the EU is introducing taxes
and customs duties to China,

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Serbia is signing a free
trade agreement with China.

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What EU is doing right now may be
referred to as risk reduction policy.

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Although such policy is primarily
linked to China, I would like to

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say that we can refer to risk
reduction policy as a way that

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EU uses to position itself and
distance itself from status quo,

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in which it is highly dependent on
the Chinese market, in many fields,

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the same goes with the raw
materials from other countries.

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By creating its own supply chains
and by establishing certain set of

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norms, in order to protect the
economies of member states.

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This strengthened the position of
those who advocate so-called

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strategic autonomy, to the detriment
of those who believe that strategic

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autonomy is a potential danger
to the transatlantic partnership.

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It will be very interesting to observe
this strategic autonomy in context of

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Donald Trump's coming to power
in 2025, it is geopolitical moment

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of utmost importance for all those
who observe system of international

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relations, claiming that they have
evidence that in the period from

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2016 to 2020 Trump's decisions
harmed transatlantic partnership.

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Now, considering the strengthening of
the movement of those who advocate

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strategic autonomy within the EU,
we can see more and more people

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in future advocating the principle
of strategic autonomy,

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and the actions of both the EU
and some member states.

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Just one more sentence on this,
I believe you mentioned it in

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posing the question, namely, large
automotive companies that do business

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on the territory of EU, those
based in EU originally, primarily

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from Germany, to some extent,
from France as well,

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are placed in extremely unfavorable
position. On the one hand, we have

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American Tesla, on the other,
several Chinese companies,

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BYD being most popular,
most famous and the largest.

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BYD is the largest manufacturer
and the biggest seller of electric

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vehicles on the global level, and
relatively recently they announced

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plant construction in Hungary.
So, the Chinese are already

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entering Chinese market, while
Europe is trying to define its

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policies towards previous partners
and potential market competitors.

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Do you think that this would get
them closer to American strategy,

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as the Americans are simply looking
for the allies, which correspond

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to them in terms of values.
I mean friendly countries,

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such as Japan, Australia, etc.
Sometimes, Brazil is also among them.

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Do you think that the concept of
strategic autonomy is compatible

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with that principle?
-Coalitions already exist.

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We tend to divide them, rather
simplistically, into Western liberal

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democracies, meaning by that Japan,
Australia, even in some cases,

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South Korea, if someone's prone
to exaggeration, India finds itself

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there, too, and on the other hand,
we have states of different social

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systems, I wouldn't call them
authoritarian, but different

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systems, partially authoritarian.

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Somehow, the economy
transcended those divisions.

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The biggest partner of the United
States of America, apart from

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Europe, has been China. I mean,
when it comes to foreign trade.

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For the last two years, EU has
been trading more with China,

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than with the United States.
This is status quo we refer to,

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it is about the fact that we are
on the threshold of technological

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development, that would define
new directions in building relations.

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Diverse levels of cooperation
within different countries.

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The question is to what extent
political postulates based on values

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will be able to harmonize
with the needs of the economy.

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I believe that Germany is very
good example in this sense.

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Critics who, due to the lack of
democratic practices, dispute

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the development of cooperation, for
example, with the People's Republic

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of China, are often drowned out by
strong messages coming from

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the industry, because somehow, how
shall I put it, in order to demean

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those decisions, sending pictorial
message that decisions

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which the chancellor makes are
checked with party members,

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with members of the Bundestag,
but also with members of business

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associations, which are extremely
important stakeholders in Germany.

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That is more than obvious
that they are facing with problems...

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You've mentioned at one point
raw materials, materials and

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economic interests, and for
the last couple of years,

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the term critical raw materials is
getting more popular in all countries.

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EU responded with their strategy
of critical and strategic minerals,

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where they defined 34 elements,
or metals, critical raw materials,

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along with 16 strategic raw materials,
highly important for energy transition

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and green industry, for
electrification and transport,

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but also for solar panels, and
primarily for wind generators

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and wind turbines. They are usually
defined according to the criteria of

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geographical location as they
are located on the same spot,

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exactly according to the importance
for the energy transition

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00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,480
and according to the price and
rarity of those raw materials.

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Majority of those raw materials is
located in South America, many of

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them in Africa, such as cobalt,
while some are located in China.

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In what way can this issue be
resolved, to put it that way...

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How do you predict the future of
those relations will be or what can

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be done with those raw materials?
-It is a potential mine for the

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development of geopolitical events
because in order to obtain vital

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critical raw materials,
you have to secure supply chains.

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If you have them on your territory,
that's perfect, but if those are on

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some neutral territory, if we have in
mind EU and China as illustrative

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00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,720
example, while critical raw materials
are situated in Africa,

253
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,160
who will be the first
to plant the flag?

254
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,520
Who will be the first to ensure
the flow and influx of these raw

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materials and supply chains,
all that affects better positioning.

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The one who has all this
is by no means in the lead.

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The problem that arises is what if
someone else might gain access to it

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and potentially open
the possibility for actions

259
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that make such areas unstable.
If we want to look at it in

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the context of EU strategic thinking,
EU had clearly defined its priorities

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at this point, but I would say that
those priorities, with illustrative

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examples, would be to the detriment
to something that EU strives to be,

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a lighthouse of democratic
values, and the rule of law.

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It is a question of the moment and
a question of the threshold that

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won't be crossed in order to ensure
the stability of the industry

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through securing supply chains and
the flow of critical and important raw

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materials by cooperating
with individual leaders or

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certain decision makers which may
not be fully in line with the values

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advocated by the European Union.
It is rather simple for China.

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China is communist regime which
clearly defines its priorities and

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the way in which those priorities
has been realized.

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This is the moment when China has
been regarded as desirable partner

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00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,240
for many authoritarian regimes,
as partnership with China comes

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00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:43,280
without too many political
and value preconditions...

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So, if you have a dominant Chinese
presence in the field of metallurgy,

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or in the field of mining, and the
extraction of natural raw materials

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in percentages that often exceed
80, 90 percent, of all quantities on

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an annual level in a
particular country,

279
00:21:00,360 --> 00:21:04,960
and is exported only and exclusively
to the Chinese market, then we can't

280
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,280
really say that the partnership comes
without any preconditions and cost,

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00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,520
because China is actually buying its
priority, or its priority partnership.

282
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European Union tends to do this
in a more just way, so to say,

283
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,960
but it is ready to turn a blind eye
at some moment in order to provide

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00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:35,280
presence in some markets, where
critical raw materials are identified.

285
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:41,440
EU wants to provide dominance in order
to meet the needs of its own industry.

286
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,360
We just witness that here.
-Well, it's an illustrative example.

287
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:51,880
Serbia can be such an example.
It is important to mention that

288
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,760
we need to understand why some
agreements have been signed and

289
00:21:56,120 --> 00:22:00,120
why certain decisions have been made.
When EU defined its own strategy on

290
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:06,520
critical important raw materials,
Western Balkan was mentioned

291
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:12,720
only as a potential source of such
raw materials, in order to provide

292
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:21,800
stability and security of the EU
needs. It is a very clear intention

293
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,880
which is of transitional nature,
it seems to be the guiding star

294
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:31,280
in that relations and in the context
of the strategy adopted by the EU.

295
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,640
According to your opinion, can
China or Russia monopolize or

296
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:42,120
politicize precisely these
critical raw materials?

297
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:46,160
For example China has over 90 percent
of all those heavy metals, that is

298
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,440
earth metals, almost all of
them originate in China...

299
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:54,320
Do you think that China can politicize
this impact as Russia did with its

300
00:22:54,800 --> 00:23:00,000
natural gas in relations with EU?
Do you think that in that context,

301
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,240
as well, energy transition as
a concept in EU and in broader

302
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,600
sense, if we consider it to be
guiding star and leader in the world,

303
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,400
do you think that energy transition
is in crisis, due to critical raw

304
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,080
materials, not to mention the areas
that can be faced with instability,

305
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,880
or proxy wars, God forbid...
We talk about the ownership of Russia

306
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:25,560
and China over the largest
part of critical raw materials,

307
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,600
including uranium for nuclear
reactors in the European Union,

308
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,440
coming exactly from Russia.
It is still the case, even now.

309
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,960
We can and we have
to look back in history.

310
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:41,120
Throughout history, dominant powers
were those which had access to

311
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,640
raw materials. Access to raw
materials has always defined

312
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:50,280
leading actors in the field
of international relations.

313
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,680
In this context, the politicization
of natural resources would be entirely

314
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,800
in line with what has been
historically demonstrated,

315
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,680
ultimately through the presence of
the British Empire on a global scale.

316
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,720
The British Empire was the greatest
power in the world at a time when

317
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,480
it had the greatest access to
raw materials, in its colonies,

318
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:18,480
and when it actually exploited its
colonies, for the sake of its growth.

319
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:25,320
Many would claim that USA built
their dominance in foreign relations

320
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,760
through close cooperation with
Middle Eastern countries,

321
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,440
but also through exploiting other
minerals, in Latin America, as well

322
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:38,240
as in a longer period of time
throughout Africa.

323
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:45,280
Also, it is not necessarily directly
related to raw materials, but it is

324
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,280
vital for understanding the context,
the existence of a monopoly in what

325
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,600
will be a critically important raw
material, and this is information,

326
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:57,600
and certain technologies, puts
China in a favorable position

327
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:04,480
because of semiconductors, and
everything that is discussed

328
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,480
in the context of microchips,
if we want to raise it

329
00:25:08,120 --> 00:25:10,520
to a higher level of
technological development.

330
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,120
In this context, I will make
a digression here...

331
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:20,040
It's illustrative description of the
argument that confirms your question.

332
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:27,560
I've been told at some point that
if I think that Russia made a mess,

333
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:36,760
to avoid some other qualifications,
by its monopoly over gas and oil,

334
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,440
just wait and see what will China
do in the field of infrastructure for

335
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,960
renewable energy sources...
You might have an exact number.

336
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:53,000
85 or 90 percent of overall solar
panels worldwide is made in China.

337
00:25:53,360 --> 00:25:56,960
Around 80 percent...
-Around 80 percent made in China.

338
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,720
In fact, there are no wind turbine
in the world that doesn't contain

339
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,640
a part of Chinese technology.
-Those minerals have been

340
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,760
dug there, so we cannot
do without them...

341
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:13,120
So, there has to be a part of it
that originates from China.

342
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:19,800
If we want to respond to the issue
of energy transition crisis,

343
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:25,680
I would rather refer to it as great
challenges it faces due to the fact

344
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:32,560
that at this point, crisis did not
take effect in its full capacity,

345
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,080
as we don't have direct conflict
between most important stakeholders.

346
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:42,280
In this particular case, between
EU and People's Republic of China.

347
00:26:43,120 --> 00:26:47,280
Now, we return to the field of
geopolitics, as long as we have

348
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,640
partner relations, burdened with
challenges, but still partner,

349
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,360
energy transition will go on,
without any interruption.

350
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,640
If we face with an escalation,
which would lead to a diplomatic,

351
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,360
commercial or, God forbid,
armed conflict, which I really

352
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:11,320
consider almost impossible,
at that moment we can talk

353
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,920
about the suspension
of the energy transition.

354
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,880
But it is a question for decision
makers and ordinary citizens,

355
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,400
to what extent would energy transition
be priority then, if you're faced with

356
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,120
situation that you cannot provide
normal living conditions.

357
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:32,000
I would like to know what is
the role of Western Balkans,

358
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,120
in the strategy of critical raw
materials, they start with recycling,

359
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,800
with a reduction in the use of those
minerals, with the search for

360
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,880
an alternative, for example
when it comes to lithium,

361
00:27:43,120 --> 00:27:45,720
sodium batteries are mentioned,
although the latest research shows

362
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:51,760
that demand for lithium will increase
by 500 percent by the year 2050.

363
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,120
Great demand... Secondly, mining
domestic resources that Europe

364
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:04,160
simply doesn't have, and
mining in friendly countries.

365
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:11,040
Serbia, and Balkans as a whole
is rich in those vital minerals,

366
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,760
there is nickel in Albania, lithium
in Bosnia and Herzegovina,

367
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,480
so what is the role of Western
Balkans in all of this?

368
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,840
Pertaining to EU, but also to
China and Russian Federation,

369
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,400
having in mind that Western Balkans,
and primarily Serbia, is dependant

370
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,720
on Russian gas. So, we have three
very serious stakeholder, but also

371
00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:31,800
United States of America, which also
has serious investment projects.

372
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,680
I would start with something that
I could more easily explain.

373
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,160
I would like to present
my own opinion.

374
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,320
Western Balkans, or to narrow it,
Serbia, in the context of Russia's

375
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:49,240
aggression to Ukraine, has made
all possible efforts to provide

376
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:55,960
relative stability of its oil
and gas supply market,

377
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,120
but to start the process of
diversification in parallel with it,

378
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,440
which should not be over-promoted
in accordance with the narratives

379
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,320
that dominate among the general
population, and that is distancing

380
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,600
from Russia... -You mean
interconnector with Bulgaria?

381
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,720
Among other things, but also other
projects, I come from Banat,

382
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,960
and we already have several
wind farms, with a new one

383
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:25,320
being built as we speak...
So, there are trends that

384
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,560
indicate that diversification
of energy sources is being

385
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,560
considered at a strategic level
perhaps not in a quantity that would

386
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,280
ensure some long-term stability
and full separation from Russia,

387
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,560
but I also think that strategic
thinking of our decision makers

388
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,200
indicates that they hope that
this would somehow pass,

389
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,840
so that we could again rely on
Russia, but on a smaller scale.

390
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,280
So, principle if it passes, fine.
-It will surely pass, but it is

391
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,520
a question how long we could
endure with the current position.

392
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:05,320
In other context, China defined its
position in the Western Balkans

393
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:11,680
as relations with Serbia as
dominant partner, and with

394
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,560
all other partners who are present,
but none of them are as important

395
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,320
as Serbia, and if we look at this
extractive industry, meaning

396
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:25,120
the industry of extracting natural
resources, certain projects

397
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:31,640
regarding oil in Albania, some
hydro projects in a private capacity,

398
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,920
based on commercial contracts
in Bosnia and Herzegovina,

399
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:41,440
often disputed due to certain
controversial individuals,

400
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:47,520
failed project of modernization of
thermal power plant in Tuzla, and

401
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,560
somewhat successful project of
wind farm Bozur in Montenegro

402
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,240
are those projects worth mentioning,
outside of Serbia, while we can talk

403
00:30:55,840 --> 00:31:01,960
all day long about projects in Serbia
in the field of extractive industry,

404
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:08,520
be it mining, or other kind of
usage of natural resources

405
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,960
of the Republic of Serbia,
or impact on the energy sector

406
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:18,240
where almost every solar panel
you see in Serbia and even

407
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:23,360
wind farms are rather interesting
examples as you can see there

408
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,280
joint consortiums of German
and Chinese companies,

409
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,360
or the company from
United Arab Emirates.

410
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:35,480
This all puts us in rather anecdotal
positions and situations...

411
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:41,120
This is not strategically crucial
except for being dependant on

412
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:46,560
Russia. Where does Europe fit?
When we talk about Europe,

413
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:52,320
we can consider positive aspects
and those aspects that pertain to

414
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,880
some aspects indicating danger.
If something doesn't change,

415
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,240
we will be forced, not exactly, as
we all know that it is regular

416
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,120
procedure, but Serbia would be
forced to introduce CBAM,

417
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,440
which will have serious
economic consequences

418
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,280
for the Republic of Serbia,
including energy security.

419
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,760
Having in mind that our industry
heavily depends on coal and

420
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,640
including other related aspects.
I'm talking about potential dangers.

421
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,880
If we consider opportunities,
economic benefit that Serbia

422
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:31,880
would gain if it provides European
companies with the opportunity

423
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:37,280
of lithium mining, was on several
occasions praised by authorities.

424
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,080
Now, we are facing with strategic
decision making process...

425
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,960
It is strategic decision whether
we will become a state that would

426
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,640
provide a significant resource
for European industry,

427
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,760
and what cost we would
have to pay for that?

428
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,600
Will economic benefit exceed
negative consequences of the

429
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:00,960
given project? I will respond very
clearly that I don't have a clue.

430
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,600
I don't have a clue as we can
consider it through political prism,

431
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,800
for people who support EU integration,
who would like to see Serbia as

432
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:16,160
close partner to EU, if we consider
that criterium only, someone should

433
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:22,840
start digging as soon as of tomorrow.
To start exploiting resource that is

434
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,800
of utmost importance for European
industry, due to which EU signs

435
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:30,520
strategically significant contracts
with the Republic of Serbia.

436
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,200
If we consider this issue from the
perspective of strategic thinking

437
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:39,000
on exploiting our natural resources,
we talk about the region where

438
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:45,880
nobody digged deeper than a plow,
or a spade, if someone digged

439
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,160
septic tanks or wells, maybe
they dugged a little bit deeper...

440
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,560
I would like to make
a comparison...

441
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:02,280
We record this on Friday,
I visited Bor on Thursday,

442
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:07,520
all the residents of Bor were born
after the mine becoming fully

443
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:14,000
functional. We talk about the region
where the mining was never practised.

444
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,880
This is a strategic decision and
someone must bear responsibility

445
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,160
both for the benefits and negative
consequences of this project and

446
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,680
make decision accordingly.
Finally, all those scientific

447
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:31,600
discussions and a series of experts
who have arguments in favor of

448
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,760
the project, pros and cons, affect
additional complexity of thinking

449
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,160
this decision through, and because
of all of the above, I say that

450
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,920
I don't have a clue, and thank God
that I don't have to make decision.

451
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:46,960
At this point, I wouldn't be able
to do that, but in the context of

452
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,720
European market being dependent
on Western Balkans,

453
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,600
I believe that Western Balkans
would have a vital role,

454
00:34:56,000 --> 00:35:02,560
the only issue is at what cost.
Is it worth it paying that cost,

455
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,560
and in the end, this would be
a political decision as we

456
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:14,960
currently lack an open, public debate
based on expert opinion, objective

457
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:20,200
discussion where we could consider
all the aspects of this issue and

458
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:28,880
based on thinking about it rationally,
but at the moment, there's so many

459
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:34,360
voices and different opinions
without being able to reach decision

460
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:42,120
and position our own opinion
based on open and relevant data.

461
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,120
You are absolutely right,
I fully agree with you.

462
00:35:46,240 --> 00:35:49,480
I would only add that while
calculating all the data,

463
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,240
and economic cost, we should also
take into account, as I call it,

464
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,680
the price of doing nothing.
Damage that must be repaired

465
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,960
also present economic cost.
This is not just negative consequence

466
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:04,600
but the price has to be paid.
The price of missed opportunity

467
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,280
is also a kind of
cost to be paid.

468
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,720
Opportunity or expense around
that project, be it realized or not,

469
00:36:11,240 --> 00:36:15,280
will be huge, without any doubt,
or let's say, it won't be small.

470
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,560
If it is not implemented, we will
tighten relations with the EU...

471
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,080
It's political cost...
-I wouldn't imply that we made

472
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,720
any promises, as I am not familiar
with that, and I cannot claim that.

473
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,000
But given the agreements that we've
signed, there are certain expectations

474
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:37,120
that if lithium would be digged in
Serbia, then European market

475
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,960
and EU companies would have
priority when exporting it.

476
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:46,840
As one of the arguments in favor of
this project is a spillover effect

477
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:52,800
that would help the companies that
would further process lithium or

478
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,680
maybe even production of batteries,
to position themselves in Serbia...

479
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:02,120
We can spread the story further
referring to the labor shortage,

480
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,320
lack of energy sources, that would
allow stable distribution network,

481
00:37:08,240 --> 00:37:15,560
I repeat what I've learned from you.
So, we again think about the costs

482
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:20,680
that we could face with only
when the decision is made,

483
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:27,160
that we cannot be aware of now,
as we have never been in such

484
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:34,080
situation, the mine of that size
was never present in Serbia,

485
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:38,720
not even in the lifetime of our
parents. Perhaps not spatially,

486
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:44,800
but of such economic importance,
it has never happened before.

487
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,880
Finally, I believe that it will come
down to political decision,

488
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,560
and the one who will have to make
this political decision will also

489
00:37:53,240 --> 00:37:59,760
have to bear responsibility for both
positive and negative consequences.

490
00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:06,600
What we should not allow is treat
so important issue as a metaphor

491
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:14,720
for our internal political discontents
as such vital decisions have to be

492
00:38:15,240 --> 00:38:21,760
made by using common sense,
but I question our maturity and

493
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:26,200
readiness to treat such important
subject in this way...

494
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:32,000
We can come to the situation to
part with big European companies,

495
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:38,520
and then someone from China came
and say that they want that project,

496
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,840
and that we have to give it to them,
making such a pressure that we won't

497
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,040
be able to say no. I don't want
to claim that something similar

498
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:54,520
will happen, but I give only some of
potential scenarios of future moves.

499
00:38:55,120 --> 00:39:00,120
Thank you, I fully agree with you.
You've mentioned the role of China

500
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,480
in energy sector. You said that they
do not have a problem to establish

501
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,440
consortium with European companies.
It is clear that Europe perceives

502
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:12,800
Russian influence as negative, above
all, in Serbia and Western Balkans,

503
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:15,920
but also the influence of China,
to some extent, in Serbia.

504
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,600
I was wondering how European Union
perceives the impact of China in

505
00:39:20,720 --> 00:39:25,040
energy project. How much do
the Chinese participate in

506
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,520
financing renewable sources,
and how it is being perceived

507
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,640
by the EU? Does it present a risk
to align with the appropriate political

508
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,120
measures from Copenhagen, with joint
foreign and internal relations

509
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:39,640
or is it all in terms of general
strength, i.e. decarbonization,

510
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,400
reaching the goal of coal
phase out until 2050.

511
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:47,840
Now I'm going to knock you down
a bit and ask our audience to watch

512
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:52,000
Understanding the Steel Friendship,
as we treat the issue of China,

513
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,160
it lasted for ten epizodes, as a matter
of fact, there were 12 episodes.

514
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,160
European Union when it comes
to Serbia and China does not

515
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,800
officially have negative standpoint.
This is starting point from which

516
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,840
we must start. Criticisms of some
of the leaders coming from EU,

517
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:12,480
or concern of some organizations,
also coming from European Union,

518
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:17,120
are one thing. Official position of
European Union has to be regarded

519
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:24,280
in the context of Progress
Report of the Commission.

520
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:29,640
China has been mentioned numerous
times, but it is quite neutral.

521
00:40:30,720 --> 00:40:33,560
It is pointed out when something
important happens.

522
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:41,440
In the field of energetics, Chinese
presence is seen on several levels.

523
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:47,120
First and foremost, it's infrastructure
development, we have Kostolac,

524
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,840
we have hot water pipe
from Obrenovac to New Belgrade,

525
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:55,000
that Serbia are indebted in Chinese
banks, it hired Chinese companies

526
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,240
to work on infrastructure projects
that will remain under the auspices

527
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:04,640
of the Republic of Serbia.
But given the critical importance

528
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:11,080
of such projects, those are being
perceived as potential impact of

529
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,560
Chinese influence which for the
moment, except for wider context

530
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,080
of Chinese presence in
infrastructural development,

531
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:21,480
cannot be regarded as actually
happened, that China significantly

532
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,080
improved its position, as Chinese
company built heathing system

533
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:32,360
from Obrenovac to New Belgrade.
The next aspect represents

534
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:37,080
financing into renewable energy
sources, and mainly it is private

535
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,160
capital, if we can call Chinese
capital private in the first place.

536
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,200
I would say that Chinese
have certain priority here.

537
00:41:44,720 --> 00:41:48,120
I would like to return to another
issue that we discussed earlier.

538
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,680
You cannot find a German company
to install solar panel for you without

539
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:55,120
using Chinese infrastructure.
Therefore, it often happens

540
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,800
that they find it easier to enter into
partnership with German company

541
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,360
from the start, and to make
things functional in that way.

542
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,880
As well as in the wider context of
political observation of Chinese

543
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,880
influence, within the field of energy,
we have mild vocabulary and

544
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:12,960
rather neutral public standpoint,
along with frequent criticisms

545
00:42:13,720 --> 00:42:16,800
coming from individual leaders or
from organizations that monitor

546
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,400
Chinese leadership on
the Western Balkans.

547
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:24,800
As I deal with this issue a bit more,
I would like to add that the necessity

548
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:30,200
of investment in the field of
infrastructure, the necessity of

549
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,680
modernizing certain aspects of
our energy system is unquestionable.

550
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:40,120
We intend to show through our research
that it is not necessarily important

551
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,520
that the company is Chinese,
if the projects are being conducted

552
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,960
in a transparent way, going through
all the necessary procedures,

553
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,160
envisaged by the laws of
the Republic of Serbia

554
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,640
and in accordance with norms and
standards that should be fulfilled,

555
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,640
upon completion of works, and this
aspect is often being called into

556
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:03,320
question, transparency in the first
place, as those projects are often

557
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,640
unknown, those are commercial
contracts between Republic of Serbia

558
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:11,080
and the Chinese companies
that implement those projects.

559
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:16,320
This is the standpoint of some of
European actors, and I regard

560
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:23,680
that problem as the burning issue,
the level of transparency is something

561
00:43:24,240 --> 00:43:27,680
that we will always point to,
when something bad happens,

562
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,280
as in order to find out why
something bad happened,

563
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:34,320
we need to know who is
responsible for that,

564
00:43:35,240 --> 00:43:37,680
and if we don't have insight into
documentation, we don't know

565
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:39,960
who should bear responsibility
for the things that happened.

566
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,640
Then, we return to the field
of political action and the field

567
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,800
of political decision-making process.
-After mentioning all of the above,

568
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:53,760
I could say that China and Chinese
companies, along with fulfilling

569
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,160
certain conditions and respecting our
legal procedures and legal acts,

570
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,000
can be a good partner to Serbia
in the process of energy transition,

571
00:44:01,720 --> 00:44:04,680
as it is a good partner of EU in some
other fields. -You're absolutely right.

572
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,920
Not only that. No one will prevent
European company to be our partner.

573
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:16,440
If we want preferences, they are
expressed in the form of values,

574
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:20,040
so we choose companies from
Europe or companies from China.

575
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:24,040
One is coming from Europe,
the other from China.

576
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,480
Focal point and main actor in all
this is actually Republic of Serbia.

577
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:33,960
If we talk in our national context.
The way in which we will implement

578
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,520
those projects, under what
conditions, under what principles,

579
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:42,720
that depends on us, so it's on us
whether we will do things in

580
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:47,560
the right way, so the company from
whatever country it might be,

581
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,080
should be placed in our normative
framework, under our auspices,

582
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,360
by pulling out the best from it,
or we will let someone do us

583
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,800
harm and cause damage
in the short or long run,

584
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,880
in a way that is immeasurable.
-You presented the competiton

585
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:07,720
in the right way, the rivalry of great
great powers in the Western Balkans.

586
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,520
You have greatly presented the ways
in which geopolitics has an impact

587
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:16,920
not only on the global level on EU,
but also on Serbia and its EU path.

588
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,480
For the final part of this podcast,
I would like to touch upon the future

589
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:25,360
of energy transition on the global
level, in the context of armament.

590
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,400
We realize that military budgets
are growing worldwide, in Russia,

591
00:45:29,720 --> 00:45:32,960
China, USA, Germany will set aside
additional 100 billions of euros for

592
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:38,720
military budget, NATO, led by USA,
tightens again GDP by 2 percent,

593
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,360
as far as NATO's budget is concerned,
so what will be the future of energy

594
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,320
transition, simply will there
be money set aside for it?

595
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:50,480
Second, it's mainly energy-intensive
industry that requires energy sources

596
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:56,760
of exceptional density, whereas
wind and solar are variable sources

597
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,240
they simply will not be able
to meet those demands if

598
00:45:59,720 --> 00:46:01,840
they start with the re-strengthening
of the military industry.

599
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:04,920
Third, these are mostly dirtier
industries requesting exceptionally

600
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,640
high energy intensity, starting from
steel, aluminum, diverse composite

601
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,720
materials, so how the two stories
fit together, I regard them as

602
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:16,520
diametrically opposed stories.
There are certain attempts in

603
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,360
the form of fuels, for aircraft
and motor vehicles, both

604
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:23,400
Americans and Europeans perform
experiments with biofuels and other

605
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:28,000
diverse substances, there are some
indications that military vehicles

606
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,160
will go electric, but I doubt
it will ever come to that...

607
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:34,320
It seems a little crazy to me,
to be honest...

608
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:39,600
So, is energy transition even possible
in this context, is it compatible, or

609
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,360
we will come up with some third
enegry source to be used?

610
00:46:43,240 --> 00:46:48,360
I would actually like to discuss
this issue as I am mainly concerned

611
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,520
what will the future of
warfare look like...

612
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,800
And if there is a war in the future,
what will it be fought with?

613
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:00,240
The conflicts we are currently
witnessing are rather conventional.

614
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:06,280
These are hand-to-hand clashes,
moving the front 10 km to and fro,

615
00:47:07,240 --> 00:47:10,800
you still have people on the field,
machines in the field, so...

616
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,280
There are some drones, as well...
-In fact, a component that belongs

617
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:20,400
to modern times is
a component of drones.

618
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:25,760
That is what we are witnessing
today, nowadays conflicts...

619
00:47:26,720 --> 00:47:29,680
How will warfare look like
in a decade or in 15 years?

620
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,320
Are we going to send terminators
at each other or are we still going

621
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:38,440
to have some kind of human staff
in terms that someone has to sit

622
00:47:38,720 --> 00:47:41,040
behind the tank and drive it?
There's also a question as to

623
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:47,680
what kind of fuel will that tank use
and what will trigger the terminator.

624
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:54,480
I have to agree with you here
that on the global level

625
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,600
we have not reached the level that
during the war we cannot include

626
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:03,720
the dirtiest possible source of
energy we currently dispose of.

627
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:09,840
Military economy, war economy is
completely different from animals,

628
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,800
from economy and industry in
peacetime. Moreover, and I would

629
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:17,760
like to hear your opinion on this,
namely, the biggest technological

630
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:22,800
advances and developments always
took place during the wars.

631
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:28,760
So, my question for you would be,
as we agreed that today's time

632
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:37,440
cannot meet the demands of war
industry with renewable energy sources,

633
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:44,720
what kind of potential technological
leap, we can focus on the field of

634
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:50,520
energy sources, as a source of energy,
could happen if we entered into

635
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:55,680
a major global conflict now?
This is now a mental game,

636
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,040
we don't hope for it and
we don't want that to happen.

637
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:04,400
My question is actually that we have
always witnessed a big technological

638
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,840
breakthrougs in wars, what kind of
technological breakthrough could

639
00:49:08,240 --> 00:49:11,400
happen where we could say this is
some legacy that would potentially

640
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,480
benefit humanity afterwards?
-This is a good question.

641
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,760
I will respond to that with a mocking
question that I used to raise here:

642
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,720
Do you think that drones are
climate friendly?

643
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:30,280
Is this a kind of energy transition
and decarbonization process?

644
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,120
I'm kidding, as far as techological
breakthroughs are concerned,

645
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:38,120
I think it should go in two
directions, we should make

646
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,000
those industries greener,
as best as we could.

647
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:43,960
If we are going to fight,
let's fight green...

648
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:50,520
Exactly. We have major initiative
to use green steel and other

649
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:56,120
composite materials, we should use
biofuels, to decarbonize military

650
00:49:56,640 --> 00:50:00,160
industry as well, in a way.
-So, we can expect an increase

651
00:50:00,720 --> 00:50:04,480
in agriculture if we would like to
meet demands of military industry?

652
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,160
Through the use of biofuels,
for instance? -Of course.

653
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:09,480
Military industry is the main
driving force.

654
00:50:10,720 --> 00:50:14,000
I'm kidding, but foremost, I think
it should come from energy sector.

655
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:19,720
We have to find an alternative,
those are key and main energy

656
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,320
sources, so we can't deprive them
of energy, at least they should be

657
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,760
in the context of decarbonization,
but we must provide this

658
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,480
energy base that will ensure
security of supply to end

659
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:33,120
consumers, that is, end customers.
So, we need to find a balanse,

660
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,520
if we are going in this direction.
-I have two additional questions.

661
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:39,800
Are you finished?
-Yes, I am.

662
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:44,080
So, two additional questions.
First, I hoped that you'll mention

663
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,200
it but maybe it still remains in
the domain of science fiction,

664
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:52,040
and comics that I like to read,
speaking of technological leaps,

665
00:50:52,720 --> 00:50:55,920
will we come to the situation where
we can shrink a nuclear reactor

666
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:59,640
to the size of a fist,
so we can power battle suits,

667
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:04,240
making a kind of ironman,
this is my first question.

668
00:51:04,720 --> 00:51:08,320
My second question is not necessary
linked with this, if you mention green

669
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:14,080
military industry, that reminded me
of something people call green mines,

670
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:20,040
so, I would appreciate if you could
explain what these green mines are?

671
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:25,040
Let's begin with the frist question.
Technology and technological

672
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,600
progress is a kind of miracle,
we have already put small

673
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:32,520
nuclear reactors into the aircraft
carrier and in submarines, so

674
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:37,720
this is hard to do in technological
and technical sense, but it is not

675
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,600
impossible. I don't think it's
possible to do it with uranium,

676
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:44,200
but maybe with some other materials
such as thorium, maybe we could

677
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:49,160
expect to turn into ironmen in the war
which I hope would never come.

678
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:53,160
As for the green mines, there isn't
such a thing as green mines,

679
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,040
just as there is no green
military industry.

680
00:51:56,520 --> 00:52:00,320
We can only make effort to reduce
its ecological, carbon footprint.

681
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:05,760
But it could never be thoroughly
eliminated, it's insane and no country

682
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:10,200
would opt for that, if nothing else,
it will raise the price,

683
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,400
it will not be competitive in
the warfare circumstances.

684
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:18,240
As for green mines, there're non
either. Every mine causes some

685
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:20,200
ecological consequences
and ecological damage.

686
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,560
There are certain standards which
are defined on a global level,

687
00:52:24,240 --> 00:52:28,800
from UN and other international
mining organizations,

688
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,880
and we should adhere fully
to those standards.

689
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:36,360
If any other mine is going to be open
in Serbia, like this with lithium,

690
00:52:37,240 --> 00:52:40,440
simply there are standards
we need to adhere to, in order

691
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:43,640
to minimize this damage, but
there will always be harmful

692
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:46,320
consequences and we should
try to make amends with this regard.

693
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,320
In the end, what really matters,
it is purely economic calculation,

694
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:53,200
and we should take it into account.
If we harm groundwater,

695
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:55,800
we should see how many people
we had endangered.

696
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,560
How much does their treatment cost?
How much we should invest in repair?

697
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,920
All of this should be a part
of this complex calculation

698
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:04,720
of the economic benefits
within a single project.

699
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:09,920
So, this is the point of green mining.
This is so-called greenwashing...

700
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,280
Or sustainable mining, a form of
mining that minimizes damages

701
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,440
to the greatest extent
of one mining project.

702
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:23,320
So, the chances for Ironman are slim.
It exists, but it is rather small.

703
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,440
We just have cute name for
something that is minimal damage

704
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,400
related to green mines. This is
your answer to my question?

705
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:34,160
Yes, that would be it.
Just one more question finally.

706
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:39,800
Do you think that it is possible that
we conduct decarbonization process

707
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:43,000
until 2050, not necessarily
until that particular year...

708
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:46,640
A tough question. Do you think
we face the crisis, or do you

709
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:50,800
think that Serbia, EU and the world in
general will aim at drastic reduction

710
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:56,360
of CO2 emissions? -Drastic
reduction of CO2 emissions

711
00:53:57,320 --> 00:54:00,600
yes, but full decarbonization
until 2050, absolutely not.

712
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:04,400
It is in domain of science fiction.
Norms and standards are being

713
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:10,560
prescribed by the states that are
far ahead of Serbia in development,

714
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:17,600
while we have billions of people
in the south that don't consider

715
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:22,120
this an issue at all. At least
not priority issues.

716
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,760
I think it's good that mankind
should always strive to something

717
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,000
better, it is one of
the paths to progress,

718
00:54:31,240 --> 00:54:33,960
and I would like to go back
to the very beginning of our

719
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:38,800
conversation, strategy, action plan,
desires are one thing, reality and

720
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:43,280
global circumstances are the other.
It's good to strive for something.

721
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:47,640
It's good to define policies and actions
in a way that the goals are achieved,

722
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:52,880
we should not grieve if decarbonization
doesn't happen until 2050.

723
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,840
But we should feel sorry if we
won't be in better position than

724
00:54:57,240 --> 00:55:00,080
at this moment. De facto, this is
something that should take place.

725
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:06,760
But it shouldn't happen overnight,
as we have to do it rightfully,

726
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:10,560
so that could be sustainable.
If it's not sustainable, every

727
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,280
crisis period would take us
two steps backwards,

728
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:18,200
just like when you try to lose
weight, practising strict diet,

729
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:22,480
losing ten kilograms in a month,
and you feel content, and

730
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:26,600
you start eating and
you gain 13 kilograms.

731
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:33,160
This is the effect that we should try
to avoid, so it's good to go in that

732
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:36,680
direction, take it as final value
that we aim to reach and make

733
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:42,160
efforts to gradually achieving it,
until 2050 or on some later occasion,

734
00:55:42,720 --> 00:55:46,120
this is not important, as long as
we take the right steps forward.

735
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,280
Thank you, I would like to conclude
our episode with this.

736
00:55:49,720 --> 00:55:53,000
So, it's possible, we will probably
be in a much better position,

737
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,240
and reduce emissions of CO2,
but current geopolitical situation

738
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:03,160
indicates a threat, pressing us
to really do all that is necessary.

739
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:06,000
Will you agree with me?
-This is a very good conclusion

740
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,680
of our today's discussion.
-Thank you very much.

741
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:10,160
Thank you on your invitation.

742
00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:22,680
Produced by:
New Magazine

743
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:24,360
Supported by: Open Society
Foundations Western Balkans