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Did you know that this is
the twelfth and final episode

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in the first series of podcast
Understanding the Steel Friendship

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produced by New Magazine?
My name is Stefan Vladisavljev,

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and for the last seven-eight months
I have been your host on the road of

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getting to know some of the vital
elements and segments of cooperation

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between Serbia and China, in the
context of both bilateral relations

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and in the broader regional, European,
geopolitical and international context.

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Primarily this episode, the twelfth
episode is devoted to the discussion

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of the role of China in the war
between Russia and Ukraine

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and what kind of impact this can
or cannot have on Republic of Serbia.

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My today's guest is doctor Marko
Savkovic from ISAC Fund,

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the International and
Security Affairs Centre.

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I would warmly recommend that
you follow the discussion closely,

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as Marko disclosed at the very end of
our discussion some really important

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messages, and we came to some
rather interesting conclusions,

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springing from our discussion.

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It's also important that we came to a
close of the first series of podcasts.

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The idea of this podcast, from the
very beginning, was to familiarize

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people, who do not consider this
issue a priority, with some important

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information that are true, and spoken
by the people who are recognized as

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relevant experts in this field, but we
also touched upon foreign policy of

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the Republic of Serbia, economic
cooperation of Serbia and China,

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we discussed significant ongoing
topics, such as Xi Jinping's visit.

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In the last episode,
we discussed war in Ukraine.

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Every episode had brought something
rather specific, and was different

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compared to the previous one.
All our episodes are available

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on several platforms, primarily
in this video format, you can

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watch our podcast on You Tube
Channel of New Magazine,

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NM standing for New Magazine.
We recomment that you start

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to follow us, as besides this podcast,
on You Tube Channel of NM Magazine

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you can watch a bunch of interesting
interviews, with people authors of

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New Magazine, as New Magazine is,
primarily, a printed media, you can

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buy it on kiosks every Thursday,
and in other places where our

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print media are being present.
You can always find something

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interesting to read about the global
events, both local and international,

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and simply relations with China,
that it established with the countries

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worldwide, are among the topics
covered by New Magazine.

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Apart from that, you can find us on
Instagram, Tik Tok, while in audio

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format, you can find us on Spotify,
Deezer, Apple Podcast and all other

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relevant podcast platforms.
For the time being, this is

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where our friendship ends,
I will return to this issue through

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my writing for New Magazine,
and I believe that in future,

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we will have another video format.
I just wanted to tell you that

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a whole team produced this podcast,
first of all, New Magazine crew

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when it comes to production,
so I have to express my

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gratitude to Nadezda, Duda, Djura,
on their assistance on implementing

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this program
in the recent period of time.

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My primary interest is related
to China on the global level,

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as well as China in the
Western Balkans region.

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I'm Program Director at the Foundation
BFPE for a Responsible Society,

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apart from assuming the role of your
host for the last twelve podcasts.

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I invite you to continue following
the work of New Magazine,

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through diverse platforms, as well
as the work of BFPE Foundation,

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I belong to, as we also deal with
China within the framework of

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our activities and research efforts,
so I am confident that you will find

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all sorts of interesting topics
that could drive you to become

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even more curious when
it comes to this issue.

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Stay tuned in this final
episode featuring Marko Savkovic.

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The episode starts right now.

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Marko, good afternoon.
-Good afternoon.

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Your name is familiar to all readers
of New Magazine, to the people who

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follow our video editions, as quite
recently you were hosted in another

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program produced by New Magazine.
As a host of the podcast entitled

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Understanding the Steel Friendship,
I would like to greet you,

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we had the opportunity to work
together for a longer period of time,

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so it's my pleasure that, in the
final edition of this first series,

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I had the opportunity to host you
as interlocutor, given that when

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we speak about the sphere of
geopolitical activities and the field

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of foreign relations, and finally,
relations of the great powers,

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I cannot find a better way of
ending the first season.

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Thank you for those great and
yet largely undeserved words,

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and I am very happy
to be hosted by you today.

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The pleasure is all mine, indeed.

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For a start, today we are going
to talk about a current topic.

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Several days ago, a Peace Summit
in Switzerland had finished,

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with the focus on the theme
of the war in Ukraine.

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The main topic of this podcast is
People's Republic of China, and

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the relations between People's
Republic of China and Serbia.

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We will try to establish certain
links and parallels, as specific

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issues of our conversation, but what
seems to be not specific only for

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our discussion is the initial question
that I posed to all my interlocutors,

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related to the title of our podcast
Undestanding the Steel Friendship.

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How do you interpret this phrase
which is being used more often

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on the part of officials and the
researchers in describing relations

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between Republic of Serbia and
People's Republic of China?

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It sounds rather striking, this is
an impressive phrase, I would say.

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It is carefully selected,
someone will make fun out of it,

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this is not strange when it comes
to us, claiming that this phrase is

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above all for marketing purposes,
that it doesn't reflect the true

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nature of our relations, but prompted
by a conversation I have conducted

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several days ago, I have been
thinking about it, and actually,

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if we follow how relations evolved
between Serbia and China,

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that started to develop more seriously
during the reign of Democratic Party,

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and President Tadic, now they are
developed to unexpected proportions,

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this is really a rather complicated
relationtionship, that cuts across

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a range of policies, producing
quite diverse consequences,

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both in internal politics, some
concrete projects stem from

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that relationship, primarily
related to infrustructure,

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that first comes to mind, but it is
just one of the policies within this

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cooperation has been developed.
So, under the impression of this

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conversation, one of my colleagues
asked whether we are really certain

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that China had chosen Serbia, or
vice versa, that Serbia chose China.

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I believe that we are talking here
about some kind of recognition of

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an opportunity that presented itself,
and for now, due to the incredible

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ability of People's Republic of China
to present its field of technological

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innovations so successfully, as
the road from from idea to its

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implementation is quite short in this
regime than in complex democracies,

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we will have for the next couple of
years lots of innovative projects

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implemented as a result of cooperation
between Serbia and China.

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As for the fact whether Serbia is
important to China or vice versa,

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we will discuss our relations later,
but maybe this is a good introduction

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to the first part of our conversation.
I am going back to Tadic's statement

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about four pillars of foreign policy.
You've just mentioned innovations,

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technological progress, infrastructure
which was essential a decade ago,

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for the economic development of Serbia
maybe even some fifteen years ago...

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Regardless of Serbian internal policy,
can we draw conclusions from this

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steady relation with China that
China seems to be constant partner

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in the multi-vector foreign policy
of the Republic of Serbia, and

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that it will remain to be so
for the foreseeable future?

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It certainly will, but when it comes
to the UN Security Council,

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this is where Russia is more
important, Russia is our first

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partner to discuss things,
followed by talks with China.

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So, on the political level, it seems
that it is not being insisted upon to

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such extent, this is not
the only thing that matters.

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We have arranged our relations with
Russia that we have this political

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dimension, meaning disputing
the statehood of Kosovo, above all,

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which is being very complicated due
to Russia's invasion on Ukraine...

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On the other hand, we have China
with which we have political ties,

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springing every time under the
circumstances when Serbia

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supports China as the only state
aspiring to EU accession,

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or one of the few states to do that,
getting into trouble with our western

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allies, but broadly speaking,
this relationship is simply extended,

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as I said at the beggining,
it touches on lots of policies,

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and I believe that Serbian authorities
perceive China as an essential partner

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in the future development of Serbia.
-And as a steel friend, indeed...

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I have additional question as you
mentioned an institution that I would

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like to deal with a little bit more
in the second part of our discussion.

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Let's go back to the main theme
of our conversation, this is conflict

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between Russia and Ukraine,
and the role of China in it.

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With a special focus as how it can
reflect on the Republic of Serbia.

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So, in February 2022, Russia launches
its aggression on Ukraine,

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putting itself in a position of
being strongly condemned right

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from the start, on the part of
western liberal democracies.

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China has taken a standpoint
that differs from the standpoints

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of our transatlantic partners.
I have heard a phrase recently,

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that depicts Chinese position -
neutrality with pro-Russian features.

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So, I would like to ask you first
how the launch of Russian aggression

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changed our perspective of the
broadened field of foreign policy,

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and can we speak at this moment
about a sustainable system

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of managing international relations,
considering that we have opposite

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sides, which was noticeable during
Peace Summit in Switzerland that

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was held a few days ago.
-Yes, well I would like to start

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from the statement given by
Professor Roger Mac Ginty,

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a new podcast has been released
lately, where he spoke about the

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end of so-called liberal peace,
and for a new edition of New

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Magazine, I will give a short review
of his speech from the conference,

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later turned into a podcast.
Professor Roger Mac Ginty

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says that we are now in a situation
where we cannot reach peace via

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negotiations, we are only in
the field of conflict management.

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We don't even have conflict
resolution any more but only

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conflict management. If we look
at what happens in Gaza Strip,

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in the wider area of
Palestine and Israel,

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if we look at what happens
currently in Ukraine,

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this is conflict management
at best.

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If we consider constant escalation
of conflict that's been going on in

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Ukraine, it is questionable whether
its conflict management at all.

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It might be its getting out of hand,
where you keep going one step higher.

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As for the role of China in this
conflict, this is a good way to

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describe China's position,
but it also evolved somehow.

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Last year, China was ready to offer
good services, it hadn't made

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such a pro-Russian standpoint,
it feared nuclear escalation,

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it is said that China activelly
discouraged Russia from going

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into that direction, as far as
we find it so difficult to imagine

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using nuclear weapons for tactical
purposes. Now, situation changed.

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First of all, China and Russia find
common ground, developing a

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strategic relationship. I agree with
those who claim that China had

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changed its former Russian partners
with which Russia attempted to

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build an all-encompassing relationship
of trade exchange, techology exchange,

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due to China's ability to become one
of global centers of innovations, etc.

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It also goes for the defence industry,
but there we had mutual relationship,

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as China also had access to highly
developed defense industry of

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military equipment
that Russia possesses.

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When we talk about the Summit
in Switzerland, China immediately

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distanced itself saying that it doesn't
intend to take part in the Summit

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that excluded Russia, which is
not illogical position, so to say.

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It is not surprising, as part of the
problem how West approaches

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this resolution, simply, we have
to move forward toward peace

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in Ukraine, as maintaining Ukraine
as a functional entity depends on

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when we intend to go towards
reaching a peace agreement.

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With all due respects and huge
sacrifices that Ukraine made,

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we have to be realistic,
in the prolonged conflict,

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with a country that possesses so
much more resources and potentials,

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it is not just a question whether West
will keep sending arms to Ukraine...

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We are talking about human lives.
We are talking about a fact that

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Russia is capable of sending another
30.000 soldiers on the battlefield

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on a monthly basis. I doubt that
Ukraine is capable of doing so.

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Without any other kind of assistance
it could get from western allies,

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which is being considered a red line.
-Absolutely, I find it hard to believe.

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We can imagine military advisors
assisting in puting to use those

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modern armament systems with
which West equipped Ukraine.

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This is probably happening and
we can imagine something like that.

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It's impossible that military units
take part in actual operations though.

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But, let's go back to China.
So, Russia was not invited

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to the Summit, China
distanced itself from it.

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Moreover, recently, director of the
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center,

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Alexander Gabuev had written an
article for Foreign Affairs, in which

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he points out that he thinks that
China wants to be part of the

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Peace Agreement, and I think
it's true, China wants to be a

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part of that story, so to speak.
China is not interested in initiative

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where it's deprived of a role of
managing it, or be among the states

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that are going to manage
this peace process.

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Is this role something that China
needs in order to be labelled as

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a super power? China certainly is
a great power that keeps growing,

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this is not disputable,
is an active role in

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potential conflict resolution, for
example, in Ukraine, something

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that would lead China to
obtain super power status?

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I'm not sure whether the phrase
super power exists in modern

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foreign relations, I would rather
call it a power that is capable of

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projecting power globally, with
global military impact, etc.

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I am sure that China is close
to becoming such a power,

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00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,680
it needs just a little bit to become
power, others would claim that it is.

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If we recall mediation
between Saudi Arabia and Iran,

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that had attracted lot of attention
last year, then China is a power.

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This is a new reality that
political west has to deal with.

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As long as 80 states supported it,
entire BRICS is not part of it.

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BRICS has a different standpoint,
it doesn't think that what Russia

227
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:07,040
did calls for universal condemnation,
they are willing to listen to Russia's

228
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:12,880
arguments as well, it is being done
for the sake of different motives.

229
00:19:14,360 --> 00:19:18,080
Someone doesn't trust the West,
has a problem with the legacy of

230
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,400
colonialism, lack of solidarity
and so on...

231
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:27,560
When it comes to recent events,
others have their interests in it.

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00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,120
This is my following question,
you've mentioned the legacy

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00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,760
of colonialism, I would add
imperialism on top of that...

234
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:41,560
China is often blamed for amplifing
narratives that are being placed by

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00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,120
Russia in order to justify
its operations in Ukraine.

236
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,720
One of the main narratives is that
Russia has to defend itself,

237
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,680
as it was provoked by NATO
expansion, and its potential

238
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:59,560
expanding to the East. This is being
often heard through the official

239
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:07,000
channels of China, as one of the
reasons why this conflict started.

240
00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:14,280
When we place all this on the terrain
of Global South, being perceived by

241
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,080
China as its primary sphere
of expanding their own interest,

242
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,200
at the moment, those narratives
have met with good reception.

243
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,920
How do you see that kind
of alignment on the narrative

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00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,760
level between Moscow and Beijing, and
whether it can lead to a deepening

245
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:41,840
of the system of foreign relations,
and a further distancing of states

246
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,640
in which China plays
a more significant role.

247
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:51,040
Global South, so to speak, and
what seems to be called liberal

248
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,840
west democracies and its partners
such as Japan, South Korea, Australia.

249
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:03,880
I want to distance myself at the
very beginning, China does not

250
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,280
want the collapse of globalization.

251
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:12,520
China has benefited greatly
from globalization.

252
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:18,560
Its rise is hard to imagine
without globalization...

253
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,000
Global market for Chinese
products, and so on...

254
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:34,200
In resisting that legacy of
real and imagined imperialism,

255
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:40,120
we have to be very careful with
these phrases, we have two

256
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:45,120
ideologies that are opposite,
that possess their own narratives,

257
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,440
that are rather exclusionary,
and when the other side,

258
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,920
meaning Russia and China, speak
about western imperialism,

259
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,520
they are hardly aware
of their own imperialism.

260
00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,600
This is not surprising at all.
However, they have a good

261
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:09,520
approach and access to a range of
countries, in Africa, not so much in

262
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:16,440
South America, but Africa for sure.
In Asia, in certain states, China is

263
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:22,320
welcomed, for all the above mentioned
reasons, while some countries are

264
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,160
rather hostile towards China, it is
looked upon with extreme suspicion.

265
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,080
There is fear that China's expansion
will inevitably lead to its domination

266
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,920
in the same way as we faced with
the domination of Japan in the years

267
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,280
preceding Second World War,
during Second World War,

268
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:45,440
which ended up with Japan's defeat.
So, it is rather complicated situation

269
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:51,720
but it is also the scene
of a global competition.

270
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:59,600
No one speaks in terms of victory,
the competition is ongoing.

271
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:05,520
Instead of naming it 'conflict',
we have phrases such as

272
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:10,280
strategic competition, just to avoid
using the term 'conflict'.

273
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,160
I think we are not far from
the first military confrontation.

274
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:22,200
As you know, given that you are
an expert on that particular region,

275
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:28,160
you know that the issue of Taiwan
is very concerning, as there is

276
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:34,720
China's ambition to break away from
the American, but not just American,

277
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,240
impact, it is a circle that is
made through these alliances,

278
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,880
in order to impose itself as
a real global stakeholder.

279
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,400
This is relevant when we consider
conflict in Ukraine as well,

280
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,920
as it seemed that Pacific would be
primary sphere of interest of the

281
00:23:54,360 --> 00:23:57,920
foreign policy of the United States
of America. This was the case...

282
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,800
However, with launching Russia's
invasion on Ukraine, as if they

283
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:09,280
paused it for certain period of time,
but soon experts started making

284
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:16,200
parallels between Russian aggression
in Ukraine, and if Central China would

285
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:22,120
decide to make invasion on Taiwan,
perceived by Beijing as integral part

286
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:31,000
of Chinese territory, so scenarios
are both connected with Taiwan,

287
00:24:31,360 --> 00:24:36,520
what the west has learned on the
example of Russia's aggression,

288
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,160
or whether it is enough to offer
financial assistance and

289
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:48,760
additional military defense systems
which are given to Ukraine's disposal

290
00:24:49,360 --> 00:24:52,880
both through manpower and
through concrete mechanization,

291
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,520
but it is perceived as potentially
much bloodier conflict due to its

292
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,800
geopraphic position, Taiwan is
an island, if it is surrounded or

293
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:11,040
closed, there is no where to go
from the island, this would simply

294
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:19,960
lead to a concrete final solution,
which would also happen in Ukraine.

295
00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:24,080
There's also an issue of
an American prestige...

296
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:32,320
If we now think with Cold War logic,
and logic of super power attitude,

297
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,600
United States cannot allow for
the country under its protection,

298
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,320
to experience downfall, because
it brings consequences with it,

299
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,360
no state would find that protection
secure enough, we have a list of

300
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,680
states, such as Japan,
the Philippines, perhaps,

301
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:51,160
Australia, for sure, a list of states
that are in a kind of alliance.

302
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:57,560
Taiwan is the last barrier to
China's access to the Pacific.

303
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:03,760
That's right... Sea border...
-The last line of some sort of border

304
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,920
of Chinese impact and
Chinese access to the east.

305
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,120
But, as someone might say,
we have plowed quite deep,

306
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,480
we should not go into
Taiwan's direction...

307
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:22,720
I will go to the regional issues, but
just another thing that pertains to

308
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:29,200
Peace Summit, we are going
to the field of speculation...

309
00:26:30,120 --> 00:26:34,760
Do you foresee in the future some
kind of coalition between China and

310
00:26:35,360 --> 00:26:39,640
Russia on one side, and transatlantic
partners on the other, that could

311
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:46,000
lead to the peace process, or
this is just in the domain of fiction?

312
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:53,000
I don't see that, and this
is not so smart to predict,

313
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:59,800
that the conflict will go into 2025,
as Ukrainian counter-offensive

314
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,920
that was announced last year,
haven't been successful afterall,

315
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,600
it has been haulted, obviously,
while the Russian offensive that

316
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:19,040
was launched in October has also
come to a hault now, as it seems.

317
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:25,520
However slowly that front moved,
the breakthrough did not occur...

318
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:34,480
Ukraine had enough time to place
fortifications, to position its best

319
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:39,520
units along the lines of
the Russian army's advance.

320
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,040
However, the problem
of manpower remains.

321
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,480
The problem of availability
of ammunition is still there,

322
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,760
present evaluation is that 5-6
Russian shells go to one Ukrainian,

323
00:27:52,440 --> 00:28:01,560
this is quite a huge problem for
Kyiv, but the bottom line lies

324
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:07,240
in the fact at what point in time we
decide to turn to a peace process.

325
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,200
It happens when both sides in conflict
realize that they are not in position

326
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:20,200
to fulfill their military goals or such
weakening of resources and

327
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:25,680
and capacities occur that continuing
with fighting will bring into question

328
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:31,960
staying in power of the regime itself.
I'm not under impression, presently,

329
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:38,760
that we have reached that point.
Both on Ukrainian and Russian side.

330
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,640
We did have that weird situation,
that will probably remain unresolved,

331
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:51,640
with Prigozhin's mutiny, but that
event only stabilized Russia.

332
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:59,280
Now they have no doubts
about the continuation...

333
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:05,040
When I say 'they', I mean public in
general, and public that supports

334
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:10,240
president Putin, so it is apparent
that the end of this conflict lies

335
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:15,960
in Putin's head, he is surely still
interested in those four regions,

336
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,760
but this is not an overall agenda.
I believe that their plan was to

337
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:24,640
divide Ukraine in half
along the line of the Dniester,

338
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:32,720
to take over Odessa, and to turn
Ukraine into a landlocked country.

339
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,240
A country without access to the sea,
a land without opportunity to export

340
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:45,080
its cereal grain products, now they
realize that this is not possible,

341
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:53,520
but months will go by until both
sides realize that they're deadlocked.

342
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:59,400
This resembles the First World War.
It is very similar in some aspects.

343
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,640
It is unbelievable. As if we have
a hundred years of warfare

344
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:08,480
condensed into two years, in the
sense that we have those trenches

345
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,320
from which no one can get out as
drones will notice them immediately.

346
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,720
We have drones that are
integrated in such a way

347
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:24,080
that laser guidance of shells and
bombs is done through the drones.

348
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:30,440
They hit the target directly. There
are terrible losses on both sides,

349
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,880
especially on the Russian side in
the context of those frontal attacks.

350
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:41,280
Those are not so massive strikes,
but they still incur heavy losses.

351
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,480
The moment when a man steps out
of the armored vehicle, he becomes

352
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:52,440
target at that very moment.
So, I don't see space for any

353
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,160
major breakthrough, it is certain
that what Ukraine expects, in terms

354
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,880
of new armament, that should reach
them soon, we cannot witness any

355
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,600
miracle, when they obtain F-16,
when it becomes operable,

356
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,800
these are mostly fighters of
a slightly older generation,

357
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:12,240
not the latest ones, especially as
F-16 is in question, but it will make

358
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:19,520
things harder to Russia, and thanks
not only to F-16 but also to other

359
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:29,600
systems such as strategic bombers,
that launch glide bombs, causing

360
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:37,840
heavy civilian losses,
will be in range...

361
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:46,040
That also somehow changes the picture,
but in an absolute sense, capacity of

362
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:51,240
Russia to bear this is greater
than the capacity of Ukraine.

363
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:57,200
This is my unbiased opinion, as
we have so much negative thinking

364
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:02,960
and horrible cheering for one side,
I say this as an objective observer,

365
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,000
as much as it is possible
to be an objective bystander

366
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:09,880
and give thorough analysis
of this conflict.

367
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,680
I would like to bring in this
story to the regional level.

368
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,680
I would like to present a thesis
first and to hear your comment.

369
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,400
We have discussed until now
Russia and China as if they are

370
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,120
in a kind of coalition, but now
I would like to point out their

371
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,880
differences when it comes to their
acting on the foreign affairs field.

372
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,640
I would like to do that in the context
of the Western Balkans region.

373
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,880
Russia is traditionaly present in the
Balkan, in the Western Balkan as well,

374
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:45,480
in Serbia, which we deal with the most
in our today's conversation, but within

375
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,560
this podcast in general, while China
is relatively new actor in the region,

376
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,920
if we can call it new, after being
present here for fifteen years now.

377
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:57,320
I mean in a modern context...

378
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,600
Russia has been often
perceived as a spoiler,

379
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:10,080
in the region of Western Balkan,
while China has been perceived as

380
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,160
facilitator of the current processes.
Why? Let's just take into account

381
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,640
the process of EU integration.
It is in the interest of Russia,

382
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:23,520
that is something that many
regional researches agree on,

383
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:30,080
that it is in Russia's interest
to spoil certain peace processes,

384
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:35,800
reconciliation processes in the region,
encouraging certain ethnic divisions,

385
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:43,080
thus limiting progress in the field
of European integration of some

386
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:48,440
of the states from this region, while
China hasn't got that kind of attitude,

387
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,680
as China is very good at facilitating
already started processes.

388
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,400
For instance, if you have a state
with distinct deficiencies in

389
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,680
democratic processes within its
systems, China won't force you

390
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:09,320
to become more democratic state,
it won't make you less democratic

391
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,520
either, but if you have certain
undemocratic tendencies,

392
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,120
China would be very
pleased to exploit them.

393
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,680
So, China amplifies already
existing processes...

394
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,560
We could say that some of the
Western countries are also on

395
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,160
that track and they won't make
you become more democratic...

396
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,960
I understand what terms we
might allude to in this context.

397
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:41,760
This is a thesis that attracts my
attention for certain period of time.

398
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:50,080
Can this be one of the trajectories
for the Western Balkan region,

399
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:55,680
in sense that if one of the actors
is present here, this will most

400
00:34:56,640 --> 00:35:01,840
probably be China in the future,
instead of Russia, due to this

401
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:07,360
active pushing Russia
out of the region...

402
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:14,520
China won't hurt us badly, along with
facilitating certain processes that

403
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:19,720
are, if wanted on our part,
not so hard to achieve...

404
00:35:21,240 --> 00:35:25,040
I think that's an interesting
observation, but there are

405
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,720
at least three reasons why
it hasn't got to be that way.

406
00:35:29,720 --> 00:35:38,000
First, if leading European states
would finally agree and act jointly,

407
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,360
and I don't refer to EU and Brussels
bureaucracy but about leading EU

408
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,160
countries, Germany and France
in the first place, and a couple of

409
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:50,560
other EU countries that can agree
on something, perhaps...

410
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:57,840
If those states agree and take a
firm position that Western Balkans

411
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,640
is our backyard and we are going
to bulid a network of roads there,

412
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:06,280
we will open up space for investments,
work on improving there institutions,

413
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:15,800
we will support democratic processes,
than it would look much different.

414
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,120
What we see now is support that is
being disputed by many people,

415
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:26,040
I would say, rightfully, that this is
not so comprehensive support,

416
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:32,160
that is needed in order to overcome
challenges that WB region faces with.

417
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:37,960
They would say that this is not fair,
and that they make heavy investments

418
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,960
as it is, this is absolutely true,
there is also responsibility on

419
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,760
the part of the local partners, but
in 2024, we simply need more...

420
00:36:45,720 --> 00:36:50,680
In our capacity as researches,
we have the right to say so to

421
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:55,720
our western colleagues without being
perceived as EU skeptics and cynics.

422
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:03,240
Second of all, China has to make
assessment on its own.

423
00:37:04,240 --> 00:37:07,960
It's not the China that used to be.
I recall statement of Anastas Vangeli

424
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:12,920
several years ago on BSF, that this
is not China that throws money away.

425
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:20,480
They are rather insightful, they
take care of investment returns,

426
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,120
we have instisted on the fact,
as you always mention,

427
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:35,480
that those are loans, those are not
investments or grants but loans.

428
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:41,240
China will act in one part
in a more conservative manner,

429
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:46,200
although it already bought lots
of it. -It already happens...

430
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:55,240
The Belt and Road Initiative
namely had significantly changed

431
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,240
its focus but also the amount of
money that is being set aside for

432
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:05,280
such infrastructure projects.
What was announced in October 2023,

433
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,880
and this is the amount of 4 billions
for the projects in Serbia,

434
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:11,960
in the coming period,
for a couple of projects,

435
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,200
more precisely, Smile of Vojvodina
and Highway Belgrade-Zrenjanin-

436
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:22,440
Novi Sad, such projects are
now very rarely implemented,

437
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:30,240
to place funds in that volume,
as the return on investment

438
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,600
was a good way of boosting
economic progress while

439
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:41,800
positioning their companies, but
now they opt for commercial contracts,

440
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:46,840
while trying to position themselves
on some other markets as well, as

441
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:52,320
relevant companies who win on tenders.
-That's right, or they act jointly with

442
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,240
western companies, even...
-They invest into some other

443
00:38:55,720 --> 00:38:59,560
kind of infrastructure, pertaining to
the renewable energy, digitalization.

444
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:08,160
Those hard infrastructure projects...
-Which brings us to the third reason.

445
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:14,280
We have just explained it in a way.
There are also Chinese companies,

446
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,520
they are actually state companies
but not all of them has an excellent

447
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:23,880
track record, they did not always
fulfill all their obligations on time.

448
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:28,280
Political pressure can always force
businesses to be implemented,

449
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:33,320
I have in mind this example from
Macedonia, pertaining to highway

450
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:38,960
to Ohrid, a colleague from Macedonia
told me that it will be finished in two

451
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:45,040
years, as VMRO came to power again,
as it agreed on the project initially.

452
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:52,840
This is rather interesting.
Chinese will act different now.

453
00:39:53,400 --> 00:40:00,600
Still, their impact is not so strong
if we have strategic attitude of

454
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:07,120
European states present here.
I am not confident that leading

455
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,880
EU countries are capable of such
strategic approach, excluding

456
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,080
France, but this state
solely is not sufficient.

457
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:26,160
Serbian authorities here, especially
president Vucic tends to ballance,

458
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,840
to make a bargain, to be there for
the one side, and for the other also.

459
00:40:32,720 --> 00:40:37,040
They show their aspirations here for
the resumption of the competition,

460
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,400
judging that they
have interest in it.

461
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,440
We came to the level of Serbia
in our discussion, which is a good

462
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,960
thing, actually, an introduction to
my final two additional questions.

463
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,480
The first question relies on
what we have been discussing,

464
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:59,560
that is political coordination
on specific relevant issues.

465
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:05,880
The first theme to put on the table
is the issue of conflict in Ukraine,

466
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:14,320
is it possible to describe Serbian
position paradoxically as closer

467
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:18,320
to Chinese position at this point,
from the point of view the war in

468
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,840
Ukraine has been perceived,
compared to the position of

469
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,600
our western partners, European union
and the United States of America.

470
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:28,680
This is an interesting perspective,
but I would say that it is not so.

471
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:34,840
Serbia is somewhere between
our western partners and China.

472
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,720
Let's put it that way, as in some
critical moments, Belgrade was

473
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:44,360
clearly warned of the consequences
if we do not align, in case Serbia

474
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,440
doesn't condemn invasion, Belgrade
would have agreed and supported it.

475
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,920
Including the Declaration from the
Summit in Switzerland. -That's right.

476
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,840
It is being taken care of that
it wasn't reported that Kosovo

477
00:41:59,240 --> 00:42:02,000
also supported that declaration
and that it was treated as a state,

478
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:09,960
among those 80 signatories,
it is clear to the people that

479
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:18,800
Serbia assists Ukraine with
provision of military equipment,

480
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:24,400
I suppose primarily with ammunition,
we have numerous reports from the

481
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:31,120
battlefield claiming that we provided
them specifically with mortar shells,

482
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:39,280
it is clear where it was made in,
and it is a deal made by the

483
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:44,200
mediation of the USA,
it is also very clear.

484
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:51,160
This whole new situation
with lithium comes to mind...

485
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:57,480
So, we find ways to make things
work and to satisfy the interest

486
00:42:58,720 --> 00:43:04,800
of the west in our region.
West acts in part transactionally,

487
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:10,560
as the regime in Belgrade,
so this is a new reality,

488
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,640
where people had
to make ends meet.

489
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:20,880
Democracy will suffer in the end,
our idea of liberal democracy...

490
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:29,000
We'll have to be concerned for...
I wouldn't say institutions, but

491
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:33,840
our perception of freedom,
civil rights, I am afraid that

492
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,720
the resistance that people put up
when some projects are involved

493
00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:44,840
will be ignored unscrupulously,
which is very bad, of course.

494
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:50,400
However, this is part of this
new reality and the existence

495
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:55,360
of a conventional conflict in
Europe, along the lines of interest

496
00:43:55,960 --> 00:44:00,960
of great powers, i.e. the west
and Russia at this moment.

497
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:06,320
This will serve as a great conclusion
but I intended to pose final question.

498
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:12,240
You mentioned at some point that for
Serbia, Russia is still the main ally

499
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:16,200
in the UN Security Council,
or let's call it the main partner.

500
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:20,640
What seems interesting and
what is not general knowledge,

501
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,480
for those who are not familiar with
Chinese activities in the field of

502
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:28,440
foreign relations, it is the fact that
China very rarely leaves its zone

503
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:32,480
of comfort, and gives open support,
or openly opposses something that

504
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,360
is not in the primary
sphere of China's interest.

505
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,040
Primarily within multilateral
organizations, I refer to the

506
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,240
UN Security Council and
the UN General Assembly.

507
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:48,360
It didn't happen by accident that
just a few weeks after signing

508
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:52,920
the Agreement on Shared Future
between Serbia and China,

509
00:44:54,000 --> 00:45:00,600
China was one of the states
that openly opposed adoption of

510
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:09,600
UN Resolution on Srebrenica.
Does this uncharacteristic action

511
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:19,120
of China indicates that we can in
future count on greater alignment

512
00:45:19,720 --> 00:45:24,520
between Serbia and China on
important issues within multilateral

513
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:32,760
institutions, where issues pertaining
to China are rather tricky, such as

514
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:40,120
human rights, minority rights,
certain security elements and laws,

515
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:47,320
the situation in Hong Kong, is this
something potentially concerning?

516
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,440
Yes, by all means. Look, this
is rather interesting, actually.

517
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:57,240
Serbia had a problem due to
our non-alignment when it comes

518
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,640
to Russia, and in future, we will face
problems as we won't align when it

519
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:06,160
comes to China. Political west,
towards which we aspire,

520
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:12,000
whether we want it or not,
we will belong to it, sooner or later,

521
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:18,040
the west will continue with
the confrontation process

522
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,600
with China. -Known as
'tightening of relations'.

523
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,040
Yes, or global competition,
whatever we might call it...

524
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,760
The bottom line is that
it won't be good.

525
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:32,360
I see where it's going.
All the voices that call for

526
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:40,800
reducing tensions and rapprochement
are being shut down as apologists

527
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:51,480
of Putin, Xi Jinping, genocide...
Let's take Mearsheimer, for instance.

528
00:46:52,720 --> 00:46:57,520
He was universally despised,
and I go back to Mac Ginty,

529
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,400
as he said several great things
in that podcast.

530
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:04,840
No one speaks about peace.
Peace is not at the table.

531
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:11,320
This is what I find deeply concerning.
It is only talked about how we can

532
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:15,360
win, how to get the upper hand,
how to reach some goal with

533
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,520
military equipment,
it is understandable.

534
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:22,560
What happens when the conflict
enters the third, the fifth,

535
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,960
the seventh year? When will
we start talking about peace?

536
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:30,600
Who mentions peace in the context
of Israel and Palestine? No one.

537
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:36,600
We witnessed terrible destruction
and suffering, and I fear that we

538
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:42,560
should consider the fact that
societies we live in have their

539
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:47,040
own boundaries, there is
a certain amount of death

540
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:50,080
and destruction that
we are capable of accepting.

541
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:52,720
There are some limits though.

542
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,880
We should not forget universal
and elementary human values

543
00:47:56,360 --> 00:48:00,440
that are prescribed and defined with
different charters and declarations...

544
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:07,000
And our faith in the political system,
that some justice will be established,

545
00:48:07,720 --> 00:48:11,120
that a certain measure of
things will be established

546
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:17,040
in terms of protecting vital interest,
and what is bigger vital interest than

547
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,600
for the people to live, for the society
to keep getting developed further,

548
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:24,480
etc., not to go into some
philosophical considerations.

549
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,040
I would like to discuss peace
to a greater extent, as

550
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,240
no one is considering it.

551
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:35,040
In the context within which we led
our conversation, and given that

552
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:40,840
this is probably last couple of minutes
of the first season of our podcast,

553
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:47,720
I believe that we can finish our
conversation by sending this vital

554
00:48:48,240 --> 00:48:50,120
message to our audience.
I want to thank you once

555
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:55,000
again for joining us today,
I hope you find our discussion

556
00:48:55,680 --> 00:49:00,120
interesting, who followed us all
the way to the last segment of

557
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:06,200
the very last episode, we leave
room to find us somewhere on

558
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:10,320
the street or to find our email
addresses if you are interested

559
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,160
in any of this, Marko is always
an excellent interlocutor on many

560
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,760
issues, if you want to find out
something new, and we will

561
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:20,800
see again on some other occasion.
-That's right.

562
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,200
Many thanks on your invitation,
I wish you success in the sequel

563
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:30,200
of this very interesting podcast,
including a variety of interesting

564
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:32,280
themes and hopefully
interesting interlocutors.

565
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:35,880
Produced by:
New Magazine

566
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,560
Implemented by the support
of the U.S. Embassy