1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:08,000
Alan Cring Productions in association with the Emergent Light Studio presents

2
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:17,000
the Illinois State Collegiate Compendium, Academic Lectures in Business and Economics.

3
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:24,000
This is Business Finance, FIL 240 for spring semester 2024.

4
00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:33,000
Today, bond price and yield calculations.

5
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:44,000
Later in just a little while, I will bring up an Excel spreadsheet that will help with the process of doing these calculations

6
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:53,000
amazingly more efficiently than you would be able to do it on even a financial calculator.

7
00:00:53,000 --> 00:01:02,000
A normal one. However, just to begin this happy time together, we are going to look at the numbers

8
00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:10,000
and see what this exciting day has to offer us.

9
00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:22,000
As you can see, this is actually a bull day, but the bull part of it really happened right at the opening bell

10
00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:33,000
and from there it just kind of wandered a little bit down, kind of aimlessly, up about a third of a percent.

11
00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:38,000
The standard port is a little riskier portfolio, up more than three quarters of a percent.

12
00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:51,000
And the NASDAQ, the riskiest, is the most magnified of the bull market, bull indicators, at more than one percent up.

13
00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:56,000
So it is definitely a good day, but the good news happened right off the bat.

14
00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:04,000
And after that, it just kind of wandered, sank down kind of quietly through the day a little bit.

15
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:09,000
And right now it's just sort of just sitting there waiting for the end of the day to occur.

16
00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:15,000
But still, a bull day is a bull day, so we can celebrate that.

17
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:24,000
But then going over here, having a look at the crude oil, it is now in a new trading range.

18
00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,000
There's no question about it. That's 72 to 79 is dead.

19
00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:36,000
And now we're in an 81 to probably about 87 on the price of crude.

20
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:44,000
Now, one factor would be the uptick in the economy, more use of hydrocarbon products.

21
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:51,000
Which is good news, but there are still these persistent rumors that some of this, at least some of this price rise,

22
00:02:51,000 --> 00:03:02,000
is because the Saudis and the Russians have got a deal going on where they restrict their supply of oil they're putting out to cause the price to go up.

23
00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:10,000
And how long, if that's true, yeah, I guess I read it is true, but how long that's going to hold is speculative.

24
00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:15,000
Agreements like that tend to break down very quickly.

25
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:25,000
But we will see gasoline prices tick up, maybe 369, 379 a gallon within a week on this rise in crude oil prices.

26
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:34,000
Gold, it left that $2,000 neckline in the dust, and now it is up there.

27
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:40,000
It's in the range from $2,150 to $2,200 now.

28
00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:51,000
It had a drop off last night, but then it surged back, and it's right about sitting about where it was before the excitement.

29
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:56,000
That's the gold bugs are all excited about something. I'm not sure what.

30
00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:08,000
But silver, as you can see, silver is not showing that same uptick because silver is not a source, it doesn't have such a speculative component to it.

31
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:12,000
It's just sort of sitting there, all the metals are not doing much at all lately.

32
00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:22,000
But gold has been on a roar mostly because of the excitement that some apocalypse is going to happen, I guess.

33
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:30,000
Now bonds are up, the yields are up 3.4 basis points.

34
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:42,000
Generally, which would mean, of course, that the price is going down, as we will see in numerical detail in this lecture that's coming up today.

35
00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:49,000
There's a sell-off in the bond market, selling of bonds drives the price down, drives the yield up.

36
00:04:49,000 --> 00:05:02,000
Now behind the scenes, the Fed has generally earned praise for having a good control and getting inflation down.

37
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:10,000
But the last number was a little uptick in inflation, which means the Fed is not going to be cutting interest rates soon,

38
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,000
which is probably one of the things causing yields to go up.

39
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:22,000
But also, on the other hand, the Fed has been signaling that there will be rate cuts later this year.

40
00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:28,000
So markets are in kind of this, well, are rates going to go down or not?

41
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:35,000
And so that creates volatility in the price of bonds and therefore in the yield.

42
00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:41,000
And that's what we're seeing now, is an uncertainty about where bond prices and bond yields are going to go,

43
00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:47,000
therefore where interest rates are going to go, and where the economy is going to go from there.

44
00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:53,000
Difficult to call, but we'll see a lot about prices and yields in the lecture today.

45
00:05:53,000 --> 00:06:04,000
Now taking it over here, seeing what's happening in other parts of the world, the Nikkei had a good surge in the early trading that would be last night here.

46
00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:11,000
And then it just sort of floated along, just slowly rising. At the end it was up 2 and 2 thirds percent.

47
00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:19,000
That is a strong up day. So Tokyo was in a good mood, the bulls were in charge.

48
00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:27,000
But of course then you come over here to London, and London just up and down, just volatile.

49
00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:38,000
It finished up right about where it started, not a little tiny bit down, but nothing significant at all.

50
00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:47,000
So who knows what's going on over there. But you do see, interestingly enough, this rise in bond yield prices here in the United States,

51
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:54,000
bond yields went up, bond prices went down. That means that there was selling of bonds.

52
00:06:54,000 --> 00:07:04,000
Well interestingly enough, that looks like that's what fueled the equities. They're getting rid of bonds and buying stocks.

53
00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:12,000
And so that's good news, whether there's a bullish sentiment in the market, how long it's going to last is anybody's guess,

54
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:20,000
but overall we do see the economy improving and all that good stuff. So that's good news for stocks.

55
00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:35,000
Now, I'm going to go through a couple of terminology, and some of this is a repeat, just to give us a running start on bonds.

56
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:45,000
And these terms will translate into use in the Excel sheets, what we mean by different things.

57
00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:59,000
Now, let me think here. Bonds, the first thing that you need to know is the face value of a bond.

58
00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:23,000
What we call face or par is another term for it. And that is $1,000 or a quote of 100, which is a tenth of a thousand.

59
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:35,000
Now strangely enough, Excel wants you to give it the price for one calculation, but it wants you to give it the quote for the other calculation.

60
00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:41,000
We will have the price and we'll find the yield, or we'll have the yield and we'll find the price.

61
00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:54,000
If you know the yield and you're looking for the price, it'll be just the price, based upon actual money.

62
00:08:54,000 --> 00:09:04,000
If you know the price but you're finding the yield, you will have to give it the quote of the price.

63
00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:16,000
In other words, on the 100. So the bond actually has a price of $980. For that one side, you'd use $980.

64
00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:24,000
On the other side, you'd use $98. And I make it clear in the Excel sheet what you want to use.

65
00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:44,000
Okay, that's the face value of it. Now, going from there, the coupon rate, that will be the APR, the loan interest rate.

66
00:09:44,000 --> 00:10:04,000
It will be the number you see as a percent right beside the symbol. So if I were to say JLX 8%, that's the coupon rate right there.

67
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:19,000
And what that means is that the owner of the bond, the investor, will get $80 per year.

68
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:30,000
Your book starts out by saying, use $80 per year. Later in that chapter, they'll say, actually, in reality,

69
00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:49,000
it's $40 per half year. All you have to do is tell the Excel sheet, one coupon payment a year or two.

70
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:55,000
You don't have to know the numbers, the actual calculation. You just say a one or a two,

71
00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:01,000
and that will tell you whether the coupon is paid annually or in two semi-annual installments.

72
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:16,000
That's all you have to do. Now, other things. The settlement date.

73
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:26,000
Now, oftentimes, when we're using the terms in actual finance, oftentimes we'll use just the first word.

74
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:38,000
What's the face? What's the coupon? What's the settlement? Now, the settlement date is the day that the bond went live for trading.

75
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:48,000
Original issue. It actually doesn't have much meaning whatsoever. In reality, it's just historical information.

76
00:11:48,000 --> 00:12:00,000
Well, that's nice. What really matters is the maturity date.

77
00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:11,000
On what day does the bond retire and the investor get his $1,000 back?

78
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:34,000
Now, the term of a bond is nothing but the maturity date, maturity minus now. How long does the bond have left to live?

79
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:45,000
Now, the problem here is that the maturity date and the settlement date are month, day, and year kind of things.

80
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:55,000
In this class, all you have to worry about is the difference in the year now and the year that it matures.

81
00:12:55,000 --> 00:13:12,000
So if I said that JLX 8%, 2032, that would mean that the term is nothing but eight years. Eight.

82
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:24,000
That's what you'll have to know. I've made it so that when you open the Excel sheet, settlement date is there.

83
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:34,000
You don't have to worry about that at all. And the maturity date, once you write in the number of years, the maturity date will fix too.

84
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:46,000
All you have to do is know the number of years. And the problem is, of course, that the dates of the date of maturity might be different from the date now.

85
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:56,000
Just use the number of years. Don't get into the months and days. Not here in this class, not even in my a little bit more advanced class.

86
00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:03,000
It gets complicated. Just say, okay, the term is eight years. That's all you have.

87
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:18,000
Now, in this regard, there are two subterms here. This first one, you wouldn't probably ever see. Best term.

88
00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:26,000
But then there's another one, worst term.

89
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:35,000
What I mean by worst term is that some bonds could actually end before the maturity date.

90
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:47,000
Like a call provision is an example. That JLX 8% 2032, it might have a call provision that starts in 2028.

91
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:59,000
In other words, in 2028, the company could just retire the bond to say it's done, or the investors could put the bond, call the bond, put the bond.

92
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:08,000
They could say, okay, pay us off. It's 2028, pay us off. But it said 2032, it doesn't matter. We've hit the date we want it back.

93
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:19,000
So the worst would be like a call. JLX 8% 2032, callable in 2028.

94
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:32,000
Oh, so if you want to know the best, you'd use eight years. If you wanted to know the worst, you would put in for the term thing, four years.

95
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:43,000
Pain in the backside that one is. Okay, here we go.

96
00:15:43,000 --> 00:16:08,000
Now, another thing to bring up here is the coupon.

97
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:14,000
That's just that right there, times a thousand.

98
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:20,000
Normally, you're not going to need in the Excel the actual dollar amount. You just tell it to coupon.

99
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:29,000
And some coupons are just a whole percentage. Some are one decimal point, 8.2%. Others are two, 8.25.

100
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:40,000
There are even three decimal point. I saw a CVS bond. I can't remember much about it. But it was something like 5.625%.

101
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:48,000
Something like that. But you just put in the coupon, whatever it is.

102
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:59,000
Now, the price. I might have already talked about this, but I'm going to do it again just so you have it.

103
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:11,000
There is a clean price and a dirty price.

104
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:20,000
The clean price is what you see for the quote. The dirty price is what you'd actually pay.

105
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:35,000
Let me explain. Suppose that you, madam, you own one of these JLX bonds.

106
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:50,000
You got a coupon three months ago.

107
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:58,000
You got your $80 check in the mail, and so you could buy dinner and some extra fancy food for the cats and all that.

108
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:07,000
And now, so the next one, one year after that, there will be another $80 coupon.

109
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:18,000
But three months after you got your coupon, you sold it to me. You sold it to me.

110
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:33,000
Now, I saw the quote and I bought it, let's say, $1,015.

111
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:40,000
$1,015.

112
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:48,000
Well, I get the bond and I get an $80 coupon nine months later.

113
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:59,000
And you would say, wait a minute, fat boy, I owned that stock for a fourth of that $80. That was my stock.

114
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:25,000
In other words, I am not going to pay $1,015. I'm going to pay $1,015 times one-fourth of $80, which would be $1,035. $20 there.

115
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,000
$1,035 is the dirty. That's what I'll get.

116
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:36,000
This actually happened to me once. I didn't quite understand what had happened, and then I figured it out.

117
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:43,000
It was like a thousand, no, I paid like $9.86 for it. That was the quote.

118
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:53,000
But then what came out of my account was the $9.86 or something like that, plus like $12.

119
00:19:53,000 --> 00:20:04,000
So I thought, what the hell? Is that a fee, a commission? No, that was just what I owed the owner who had had the bond through part of that next coupon.

120
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:11,000
So the dirty can kind of surprise you on these.

121
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:18,000
So that's how the dirty, clean versus dirty. The quotes will be clean, always clean.

122
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:28,000
You have to figure out for yourself what the dirty is. Okay, I bought it like 86 days before the next coupon.

123
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:43,000
So 86 minus 6 months, 86 minus 9 minus 180 days. It can get a little bit hairy, but I mean, it's just one of those things that is part of the bond market.

124
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:48,000
Because people don't wait until the instant of a coupon to sell it. They sell it at about any time.

125
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:55,000
So they get to claim some of the next coupon. Like that.

126
00:20:55,000 --> 00:21:16,000
Now also, by the way, bonds work just like stocks do. As far as the price goes, there's a bid and there's an ask.

127
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:26,000
The bid would be what you would sell your bond for. The ask is what you would buy that bond for.

128
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:34,000
Just like a stock, it's the same thing. And they behave the same way. Sometimes a bid ask spread is really, really tight.

129
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:45,000
I'll show you one that's really tight. Then sometimes it's just a wide open spread, a huge spread.

130
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:56,000
One last thing. Oh, in regards, you might have noticed that I use a term that is actually antiquated sometimes.

131
00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:04,000
Around locked. 100 shares. Now we don't say that much at all ever anymore with stocks.

132
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:13,000
Because you can buy 100 shares, 12 shares, 215 shares. You can even buy fractions of shares nowadays.

133
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:22,000
But back in the day, an odd lot, you buy not 100 but something else, or a multiple of 100.

134
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:34,000
You actually paid an extra fee for that, for an odd lot. Which was just the way it was.

135
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:42,000
There was kind of a scam that went on for years and years. Buy your kid a share of stock.

136
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:50,000
Well, when you did that, you would pay ridiculously more than the market price for that share. Why?

137
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:57,000
Because you were being sold an odd lot of the stock. Fortunately, now that's gone. That doesn't happen anymore.

138
00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:05,000
However, in bonds, it's still a thing. They call it a full lot. And you'll see it.

139
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:15,000
A full lot. You can buy it, but you don't pay the same as if you buy an odd lot.

140
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:22,000
But you don't pay the same as if you bought a full lot. In fact, some bonds, you can't buy an odd lot.

141
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:28,000
You'll see that in some of these quotes that I've got. Where you just can't do it. I can't buy.

142
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:35,000
Well, I'd like to buy three of those bonds. No, you're not. We don't do it that way.

143
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:46,000
The reason is simple. Most bonds are a big, big dog playing tool. They're not for the typical investor.

144
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:54,000
If you want to buy bonds and you're a normal investor, you buy a mutual fund that's got a pile of bonds in it.

145
00:23:54,000 --> 00:24:02,000
Or an ETF or an ETN that's got a bunch of bonds in it. You don't buy bonds straight up. Normally.

146
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:09,000
That's why we don't even see quotes of them. It used to be I could pull up quote sheets of bonds just like stocks.

147
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,000
You can't do it anymore. There's just no place that shows them.

148
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:19,000
Well, here's a bunch of different bonds and their prices and yields and all that. Just ain't there anymore.

149
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:24,000
And it's because only the big, big institutional investors play in the bond market.

150
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:32,000
Trust funds, mutual funds, institutional investors of all kinds. So there you are.

151
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:42,000
Now one last term. Yield.

152
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:49,000
The coupon is what the company is paying in interest every year on $1,000.

153
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:59,000
80% the company is paying $80 a year. The yield is what the market thinks it should pay.

154
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:07,000
Now the yield and the coupon should be exactly the same at settlement. In other words, we've worked it out.

155
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:20,000
You, sir, you borrowed $100 million from me. We agreed for 30 years I will pay you 8%. That's the agreement.

156
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:27,000
However, what happens down the road if your company starts to get in trouble?

157
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:33,000
Well, you should be paying me more than 8% because I'm taking a big risk now.

158
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:45,000
Well, what happens if interest rates fall? And I mean, interest rates for a bond at the risk level of mine are now going off at 6.5%.

159
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:56,000
So the yield is right now what the market says that bond should pay. Not what it is paying, what it should pay.

160
00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:12,000
Now it could be higher than the coupon or it could be lower. Let's say that the market says, okay, right now you should be paying me 10%, but you're paying me only 8%.

161
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:36,000
Well, there's going to be a sell-off of those bonds. As they sell, the price goes down, that makes the yield go up.

162
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:46,000
Well, the other hand, what happens if the market says you're paying 8%, you've gotten a lot better, you're a lot safer, and interest rates are lower?

163
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:58,000
You should be paying us only 6.5%. Well, if you have to pay 8%, every investor is going to run and buy your bonds because they're paying candy.

164
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:14,000
And as they buy them, the price will go up and the yield will go down.

165
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:27,000
So in other words, the yield is telling the story of the company's risk, its debt risk, based upon the price.

166
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:35,000
The price is how we signal the risk. Markets work on prices, supply and demand, price goes up, all of that.

167
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:49,000
But what it's really doing is it is moving the yield around to inform us of what the market thinks about the risk of the company.

168
00:27:49,000 --> 00:28:00,000
I'll show you what I mean in just a minute here. The Excel sheet, one of the great things about using Excel is that you can play around with the yield,

169
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:09,000
move it above the bond, move it above the coupon, move it below the coupon, and you'll see what happens to the price.

170
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:15,000
You can move the price around, make the bond sell at a premium to par, in other words, above 1,000.

171
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:23,000
Watch what happens to the yield. Make the price at a discount to par, below 1,000. You'll see what happens to the yield.

172
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:32,000
And it's all, you'll see it in Excel. I've made it so that you can just play around with different yields and different prices and see the results of it.

173
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:46,000
Now before I pull up the sheet, let me show you some actual bond quotes. I had to do these one by one until the site I was using said,

174
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:56,000
no, you can't have any more until you pay us. So I got a couple off here though. Okay, let's look at, let's start with Netflix, NFLX.

175
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:12,000
You notice that it's selling at a premium to par. Netflix is, now by the way, bonds actually don't use the stock symbol.

176
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:24,000
They use this long chain of letters and numbers to identify one. It's just maddening. I was glad I saw this so I didn't have to deal with those actual trading symbols of bonds.

177
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:37,000
Netflix, this is a bond. Its coupon is 5.38%. They still do it in eighths behind the curtain and then it turns it into decimals for us normal people.

178
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:56,000
But it's paying 5.375%. This bond is due in 2029. Now that, we don't, yes that's five years and five months, is it something like that?

179
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:08,000
No, don't do that. Just say five or six. I mean, your numbers will be a little off from what you would see in these actual automated quotes.

180
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:20,000
But, you know, come on, it gets ridiculous. This would be a term of five years. Or if you said, well, rounded, that's six years, whatever.

181
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:31,000
Okay, now, notice the bid and the ask. You see them? You notice that they're selling at a premium to par.

182
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:42,000
Now over here, this blank space, this would be if you could trade odd lots. If it's not there, you can't.

183
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:51,000
You're going to buy a full lot or you're just going to go pound salt. Okay, now notice, I brought this term up before.

184
00:30:51,000 --> 00:31:00,000
There's something called the mark. The mark is the midway point between the bid and the ask. And oftentimes a quote should be at the mark.

185
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:17,000
So in other words, you could have 58 on the bid and say the ask was 60, so the mark would be the midpoint, 59.

186
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:25,000
Oftentimes you'll hear me say on the mark. That's just the middle point of the bid and the ask.

187
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:34,000
Now you'll see with this net, look at Netflix here. The bid and the ask are actually pretty widely separated.

188
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:42,000
If you wanted to sell a Netflix bond that you were holding, you would get $1,010.09.

189
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:51,000
If you wanted to buy a Netflix bond, you would pay $1,015.64.

190
00:31:51,000 --> 00:32:02,000
So you see the bid ask spread there. And of course, the prices drive the yields, so there's a yield on the bid and there's a yield on the ask.

191
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:17,000
Let's look at another one. Tesla. Now this one's an odd bird because the bid and the ask are the same.

192
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:23,000
That would mean that there's a lot of trading going on in it. This is a Tesla 5.3%.

193
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:32,000
So in other words, if you bought a $1,000 Tesla bond, you get a $53 check every year.

194
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:38,000
You'd probably get a $26.50 check every six months. It's the way it would really work.

195
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:47,000
And the term of this bond is one year. Yes, technically it's 1.3 or something like that years.

196
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:55,000
Don't kill yourself. I don't, you don't either. It's a one year to maturity.

197
00:32:55,000 --> 00:33:04,000
And notice that it's selling at a premium to par on the mark. Well, the mark is the bid and the ask, $102.68.

198
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:12,000
So it's selling above $1,000. That would mean that the market says this coupon is higher than we need.

199
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:25,000
Sure enough, see the yield, 4.534 against the coupon at 5.3. So in other words, this bond pays a coupon higher

200
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:32,000
than the market says it needs to. So people buy the bond, drive up the price, which drives down the yield

201
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:39,000
to where the market thinks it should be.

202
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:52,000
Now, one last one I'll show you before I go to the Excel sheets and show you that this isn't too painful is

203
00:33:52,000 --> 00:34:01,000
if a bond sucks, the company is in trouble. The bondholders are worried about the company making its coupon payments.

204
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:09,000
Paying off the maturity value of the bond, all that kind of stuff. Well, obviously, investors are going to sell the hell out of the bond.

205
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:26,000
That's going to drive the price down and therefore drive the yield up. If a bond goes down, I mean, if the quote goes to 95 to 94,

206
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:41,000
the yield is going to be way above the coupon. We informally call those junk bonds. Junk. More formally, we call them high-yield bonds.

207
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:48,000
Of course, they have a high yield because they have a low price. Let's look at this interesting one, AMZN.

208
00:34:48,000 --> 00:35:03,000
First of all, notice the term of that bond is 33 years. That's a long bond. Look at the bid and the ask. Good heavens.

209
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:29,000
82.26 on the bid, 88.26 on the ask. Those are way below par. And so, of course, you see the yields going way above the coupon on those.

210
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:43,000
That bid ask spread is wide, which means there's not a lot of activity in the bond. The mark is way below. What is the mark? About 84? No.

211
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:57,000
85. The mark is about 85. That's way below par. This AMZ, in other words, the market is saying, 4.25 percent? Are you nuts?

212
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:13,000
This thing should be paying closer to 5.1 percent. So they're punishing the bond, beating its price down, which drives the yield up. That's all there is to it.

213
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:29,000
Now, I wouldn't worry too much about getting every detail on my first pass, but you can look at some. As a matter of fact, let me look at one that's a little bit better behaved, the Netflix bond.

214
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:46,000
You can see some of the information about it. The years to maturity, 5.663 years. There's no worse because it's not a callable. So there's just one term to maturity.

215
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:59,000
The par is 100 on the 100. The coupon, 5.375. It's a fixed coupon. In other words, it's not one of those weird variable coupons.

216
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:10,000
In the annual, whatever. They're paid semi-annually. Like I said, most actually are paid. Every half of the coupon you get a check for every six months.

217
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:20,000
And this is senior unsecured, which means that it is a debenture. Remember the difference between a debenture and a mortgage bond?

218
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:28,000
This is a debenture. It's not secured by any assets at all. Just by the general credit of the company.

219
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:41,000
And that's about, and I mean there's the actual trading symbol, that mess right there. That's why I don't use them.

220
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:53,000
It's a domestic bond. Its currency is US dollars. And they issued, good grief, 900 million of those? Whoa.

221
00:37:53,000 --> 00:38:03,000
That was that monster issue they did, I was telling you about a few years back. It was considered junk at the time.

222
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:24,000
And there you go. Well, yeah, you can buy a fixed lot. Let me look at something. Yeah, you can buy a fixed lot of these. 2000 of them at a time.

223
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:34,000
And then after that, a thousand more. You can buy 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000. That's what that means. Don't worry too much about that.

224
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:40,000
All that information there, I've already talked about the parts that's important for us.

225
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:47,000
Goodness, that was an interesting, let me look back at something here. Give me a second.

226
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:57,000
None of those offer, see sometimes there's a panel over here that has, if you want to buy an odd lot,

227
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:10,000
what's the bid and ask and all that would be for odd lots of them. But not one of those three that I grabbed before it stopped me from getting quotes had that panel over there.

228
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:18,000
So anyway, these are actual real world, real life quotes.

229
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:27,000
Now, what do we do if we are doing this for homework, a quiz or a test?

230
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:41,000
You go into Canvas and you go to your files folder.

231
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:57,000
And you go to Spreadsheets. Right there it is. The very top one, Bond Calculations Enhanced.

232
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:14,000
Now it's enhanced because I made it look pretty. Go over to the three vertical dots and download.

233
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:29,000
And you will see, on one side if you know the yield, you can calculate the price. On the other side, if you know the price, you can calculate the yield.

234
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:38,000
And I've made kind of a nice attractive peach color, what you don't touch.

235
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:54,000
And the white is what you would put in the numbers from a problem. And the pale blue is the result, the answer that you want.

236
00:40:54,000 --> 00:41:00,000
That's all there is to this. You just have to make sure that you put in things the right way.

237
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:14,000
So I've got a problem down here. JCG 6.225 2035 currently has a yield of 5.75%. What is the price?

238
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:22,000
So that's where you use the sheet on the left, the panel on the left, Calculate Bond Price.

239
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:31,000
Now the annual coupon, you just put in what you see the problem give you, 6.225%.

240
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:39,000
You give the yield to maturity, 5.75%.

241
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:50,000
Now you give the years to maturity. Now in this case I put in, the sheet will open with 10, but this is actually 11 because we're in 2024.

242
00:41:50,000 --> 00:42:02,000
So 2035 minus 2024 is 11 years. And we'll make it so that the coupons are realistic, they're twice a year.

243
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:17,000
And there's your price, $1,038.33. That's all there is to it.

244
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:33,000
Now a couple of things let me show you before we go on. Remember that with that bond, you're going to pay me a coupon every year or every six months.

245
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:45,000
You will do that until the year of maturity. At that time you'll pay me one last coupon and you'll give me back my $1,000.

246
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:56,000
Okay, that's nice. So what happens if I make, get us closer and closer to the year of maturity?

247
00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:08,000
At 11 years the price was $1,038. How about 8 years? It's $1,030.

248
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:22,000
How about 5 years? It's $1,020. How about 3 years? It's $1,013.

249
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:29,000
What about 1 year? You see as you're getting closer, yes?

250
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:41,000
Just to make it real, I can put one. It doesn't matter. Yes, I will tell you.

251
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:54,000
But I'll tell you also that I will give enough range. Making it one or two is not going to really change the answer very much at all for normal bonds.

252
00:43:54,000 --> 00:44:05,000
I mean I'll put it for a range where you could make a mistake and put one instead of two or two instead of one. You'll get it right.

253
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:17,000
Now, what do you see happening to the price of the bond as you come, as the term approaches zero? What happens to the price of the bond?

254
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:37,000
It approaches par. Because when there's no time left, you're going to get your $1,000 back. Do you see it?

255
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:50,000
Now let me take it back up here to 11 years and let's do something else. Do you see that when the market wanted a rate lower than what the company was actually paying,

256
00:44:50,000 --> 00:45:04,000
you get the bond sells at a premium to par? The market says, in my problem here, the market's saying you need to pay us 5.75%.

257
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:13,000
Oh, you're paying us 6.225%? Well, we're going to buy the hell out of that bond. It sells at a premium.

258
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:28,000
What happens if the market had said, we really would like to have you paying us 6.5%, but you're paying only 6.225%?

259
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:45,000
It sells at a discount to par. You can move these around and you can see it for yourself. If the yield is below the coupon, the bond sells at a premium.

260
00:45:45,000 --> 00:46:08,000
If the yield is above the coupon, the bond sells at a discount to par. You can try it yourself. Try different yields and you'll see whether it's a premium or a discount.

261
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:27,000
Let me take you over here to this side. We've got CGY 8.20% 2035 is currently priced at $942.35. What is the yield to maturity?

262
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:43,000
Now, this is the side where everything Excel wants on the $100. So you just have to remember that. Up here, you're going to want to give it the term.

263
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:52,000
You don't tell it the settlement date. When you open Excel, it's going to put now the date today, whatever it is today.

264
00:46:52,000 --> 00:47:07,000
And the maturity will just be the term added onto the settlement. So when I put in the 11 here, it will automatically adjust the maturity.

265
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:17,000
All you need to do is get the term. That's all you need to do. How many years between now and when it finishes up?

266
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:29,000
You need to give it the coupon. In this case, the coupon was 8.2%. It will automatically adjust it to three decimal places.

267
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:40,000
The redemption, that's the face value. Excel uses the term redemption. But that's just their term.

268
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:50,000
Now remember that it's on the $100. For God's sake, don't put in thousands.

269
00:47:50,000 --> 00:48:12,000
Now, frequency, you can put a 2 if you want semi-annual, 1 if you want annual coupons. Now the price is on the $100. So I would say equals 942.25 divided by $100.

270
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:23,000
Divided by 10, did it. I do it that way because I'm, for some reason, moving that decimal place, one gets me sometimes.

271
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:36,000
And there's your yield at the bottom. Just like that. It's that simple to do it.

272
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:45,000
Now as long as you don't cross into the orange or the blue, you should be able to put anything that I would ask you about.

273
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:54,000
I will, on a test, I'll ask for a yield if you have the price. I'll ask for a price if you have the yield.

274
00:48:54,000 --> 00:49:09,000
As long as you know how to do this, this is the power of Excel, is once you have set up the sheet, all you have to do is put in numbers that could change for the given situation.

275
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:18,000
And you don't have to rewrite formulas or anything because the formulas don't use any numbers. They use references.

276
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:28,000
See this yield here? There isn't one number in it. It's all just references to the numbers that you put in elsewhere.

277
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:36,000
Which makes your life quite a bit easier on these.

278
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:59,000
Now, let me go back here and I'm going to pull up one of these sheets. Now, I caution that you'll get answers that are slightly different in the Excel sheet from what the quotation services are posting at any given moment.

279
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:11,000
It's nothing major, but let me do one like here. Suppose that I know the price of NFLX and I want to find the yield.

280
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:26,000
Well, let me go over here. This is a 5.375 coupon. So that would be 5.375.

281
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:42,000
Now, if I look over here, it's due in five years. Technically, five point something. But I'm not going to quibble with anyone about that.

282
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:54,000
So let's say the term is five years. Going on down, let's see what the price. I'm using the bid.

283
00:50:54,000 --> 00:51:09,000
The price right now is 101.009. So I would have 101.009.

284
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:17,000
We'll make the coupons semi-annual too, to make it what really would happen.

285
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:29,000
So my calculation from the Excel sheet, it won't be exactly the same, but a lot of that has to do with the term, the fraction of a year.

286
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:42,000
Let's see if I'm pretty close. 5.165, 5.14, yeah, it's about it. It's about it.

287
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:52,000
I don't know. I set this up so that it would be easy to use. Let me see what would happen if I went 5.5 years.

288
00:51:52,000 --> 00:52:04,000
Probably this sheet can't do it right. Yeah, it'll just keep what was, it'll round it back to five or something like that.

289
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:11,000
Yeah, there you go. Like I said, the sheet will give you slightly different answers than the quotation service as well.

290
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:18,000
But basically they're doing the same thing except in real time. They do a version like an Excel.

291
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:27,000
They get the prices because that's how everything is done. And then from those they get the implied yields right there.

292
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:54,000
Let me do the 101.564. 5.02, the quote, 5.05. Yeah, it's off by three basis points. Not too bad though.

293
00:52:54,000 --> 00:53:01,000
So there you go. That's how it's done. And that's how they're doing it too except they're using real time quotations.

294
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:08,000
And I'm using a static Excel sheet. But this is how the whole thing is done.

295
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:17,000
And so when you go to, may remember, you're going to go files, bond calculation, enhanced, download it.

296
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:31,000
This will be enough that you can do price if you know the yield on the left panel, yield if you know the price on the right panel.

297
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:43,000
And that would be enough for that kind of thing. You know, I don't do the clean and dirty in an Excel sheet, but that's not too bad to do.

298
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:53,000
But this is the one that used to be the killer. It took me one and a half or two lectures to get through price and yield back in the day.

299
00:53:53,000 --> 00:54:04,000
But with Excel, it's just a breeze to do these. And that's why Excel is so important for you to learn so that you can do these heavy liftings

300
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:16,000
without having to worry about calculators or formulas or tables like you we did like you're even doing some classes still to this day.

301
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:23,000
Last thing.

302
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:32,000
Get rid of this here. What? No.

303
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:42,000
Tesla. Let me try Tesla. There's something weird about this one. That data just looks too clean.

304
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:48,000
Something about it is really odd. I'm going to do.

305
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:53,000
What is this? This has one year left.

306
00:54:53,000 --> 00:55:02,000
102.68.

307
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:06,000
Has a term of one year and some change.

308
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:14,000
And the coupon is 5.3%.

309
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:19,000
Let me see what it says. That can't be something is weird about that bond.

310
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:27,000
Now the Excel sheet is saying that the yield is 2.57%.

311
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:33,000
That's way away from the yield. Something is really odd about that.

312
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:41,000
Even if I put in there like 1.3 years.

313
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:49,000
No. There's something really odd about that stock or that bond.

314
00:55:49,000 --> 00:56:00,000
Its price is way at a premium to par. Even though it has only a year left, it should be getting close to par by now.

315
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:07,000
Why is it still so far above par? That's just not making any sense.

316
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:18,000
Unless there's something I'm missing here. It's a fixed coupon. Semi-annual. Unsecured.

317
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:27,000
I can't see it. Years to maturity 1.408. That's not going to do anything. 1.408.

318
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:34,000
I don't think this Excel sheet can do that anyway though. No. I didn't make it to do that.

319
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:38,000
There's just something very strange about that stock.

320
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:45,000
But anyway, that is how you do Excel like an expert.

321
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:50,000
It will make you look like a hero at your next bond, price, and yield party.

322
00:56:50,000 --> 00:57:04,000
That's all I have for you today. I thank you.

