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Welcome to the Improving Development Evaluation Podcast.

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I'm your host David Wand,

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and welcome to episode eight, part two,

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where we continue our discussion

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of the international development organization

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called United Nations Development Program, or UNDP.

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You can learn more about the United Nations

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Development Program at UNDP.org,

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and we're looking at government of Canada funded project

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cost to the taxpayer of $30 million in Bangladesh,

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entitled Fighting Environmental Degradation

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and Promoting Greener Energy.

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And in summary, basically going to the Cox's Bazaar

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refugee camp, but also communities outside of the camp,

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giving them liquefied petroleum gas

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to replace their need to go into the sacred bush

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and get firewood.

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So basically, that's the idea behind the project.

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And as I will elaborate further,

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there are lots of expected outcomes

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from replacing firewood with LPG.

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One of them is improved nutritional status

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for the children because you can cook more frequently

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nutritious meals.

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And also, it's a safety issue for women.

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They would not have to go out into the forest

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and collect firewood, which reduces the risk

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or eliminates it if they don't have to go out at all

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because they have LPG at home,

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reduces the risk of sexual assault and rape.

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And the other thing it does is it reduces the harmful smoke

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from burning firewood.

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So those are some of the expected outcomes

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of replacing the need to go out and get firewood

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when you have it replaced by LPG.

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But another expected outcome I'll talk about

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in more detail is you hope,

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since we're worried about the environment,

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that in the longer term, as I mentioned in part one,

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they'll replace the LPG with solar cookers or biogas.

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And although that conflicts with perhaps

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Canadian LPG companies,

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because they're gonna lose business if that happens,

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but ideally that's what you'd like to see,

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even though the Canadian LPG companies,

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assuming they're using Canadian LPG companies

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to supply this camp, they're gonna lose a customer.

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But in the long run, that's gonna benefit the environment.

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So let's get with it.

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So some background is on June 10th,

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I sent the performance measurement framework

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and the critique of the performance measurement framework,

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which basically said that of the nine outcome indicators,

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measuring the three outcomes

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in the performance measurement framework,

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I only found two out of the nine

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that were properly measuring the outcomes.

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And on June 10th, as I said,

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I sent it to three departments of the UNDP.

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I sent it to the Independent Evaluation Office in New York,

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on June 10th, also sent it to

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the United Nations Development Program in Bangladesh,

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their country office,

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because that's where the project is being implemented.

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And I also sent it to the United Nations Development Program,

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Asia and Pacific Regional Communications Advisor.

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On June 18th, I got one email reply

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from the Asia and Pacific Regional Communications Advisor,

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and he advised me, he was on vacation,

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so he couldn't respond.

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He told me to email the Bureau

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for External Relations and Advocacy, UNDP in New York,

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which I did, and he confirmed the right email address.

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I sent that also on June 18th,

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but as of today, June 28th,

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I've received no reply from any of those

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three UNDP departments.

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And I have also not received any written response

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to my critique, even though in the email on June 10th,

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I said that was another option.

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If they didn't want to be on the podcast,

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this part two, to discuss my critique,

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they could send a written response,

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but I haven't received that.

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So on June 28th, which is today,

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I'm now going to do part two, unfortunately, without them,

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and without a written response.

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And then at the end of that, I will, as I usually do,

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send it to the Minister for International Development,

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as well as the shadow critics from the Conservative Party,

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the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois,

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and also the Green Party, so everybody knows,

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because this is not a political particular affiliation

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that you need to have.

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Everyone of every political persuasion

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should be concerned about the fact

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that Canadian government funds

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are not being properly evaluated.

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So let's get on with it.

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So there are nine outcome indicators

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measuring the three outcomes.

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So we'll start with the first outcome, number one,

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and I quote from the performance measurement framework.

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Targeted households have safe and sufficient access

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to cleaner cooking energy to meet their basic needs.

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Problem there is, that's an output.

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You're just delivering the LPG.

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It's not an outcome.

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It's after you deliver the gas,

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what are the expected outcomes?

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And I've already mentioned

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some possible expected outcomes.

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So that needs to be changed and reworded.

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And it could, to some effect, be, like I've described,

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forest areas where refugees harvest firewood is reduced

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and replaced by seedlings.

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That could be an example of an expected outcome.

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But there's other expected outcomes I mentioned earlier.

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But let's get to the outcome indicator

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for this flawed outcome, number one.

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And that outcome indicator, number one,

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is percent of households who report

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buying or collecting firewood.

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The problem there is, it's all full of self-reporting bias,

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but even more importantly, it is forget about it.

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Don't even measure the indicator.

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Don't waste your time asking households

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how much firewood they bought or collected.

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Go right to the chase and look at some

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of the expected outcomes instead.

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Weigh the children to see if their nutritional status

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has improved.

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Ask the women how many times they've had to go out

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and collect firewood,

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because you expect that to go down,

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if they've got the LPG in their house,

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in their location in the refugee camp, right?

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So those are better indicators rather than just asking them

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if they've been collecting firewood.

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And the other one is, look at the children or the adults

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to see if they have the LPG,

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if smoke inhalation-related illnesses

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related to burning firewood have gone down.

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So those would be the basic things you would look at

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instead of running around trying to figure out

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how much firewood they've got in their location

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or how much they're collecting.

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So it's not a very good indicator,

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and it creates a lot of waste in terms of measurement.

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So you could just do what everybody else is doing,

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which is weighing the children anyways, right?

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So that's where I recommend instead of that indicator,

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focusing on those as alternate indicators.

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The second indicator,

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this is one of the two that's really good,

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and they've mentioned it,

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the number of equivalent hectares

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of natural forest protected.

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That's an excellent indicator.

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So I've noted that in the critique,

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and they actually have a target of 10,700 hectares

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of natural forest protected.

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And that's actually in the performance measurement framework.

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So that's excellent.

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They even indicate in the performance measurement framework

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that they will be planting seedlings.

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So the key there is to make sure

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that that target is reached,

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and I'll talk about that a little bit later.

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So that's an excellent indicator.

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Forget about the first one.

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I mean, that's just a waste of money.

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And leading on to that, the third indicator

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is the number of tons of carbon dioxide emissions abated.

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So good luck with that.

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I would again say forget about it.

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Don't even waste Canadian taxpayer money measuring that.

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Focus on the forest that they're going to

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to collect firewood and monitor it

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by making sure that seedlings are replacing

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where they in the past at the baseline

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ripped out the wood, chopping down the tree.

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The other point is how are you gonna claim

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that any reduction in carbon dioxide,

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because it's floating in the air,

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I don't know how they do this,

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how do they claim that it's been abated?

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The only way to show that,

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and maybe that's what they're implying here,

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is by the forest where they used to harvest the firewood

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is now being reduced,

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and they can monitor that area around the camp to show that.

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So that's what they should be doing.

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So take out that indicator.

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And in fact, in outcome number two, this is what they do,

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and I'll read the outcome.

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Number two, environment and ecosystems rehabilitated.

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Now that's the good part.

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The next part is a bit flaky.

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To strengthen community resilience to mitigate conflict

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over natural resources, disasters, and climate shocks.

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The first indicator for that outcome is,

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and this is indicator number four,

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is the percent of land ecosystems rehabilitated

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in Cox's Bazaar through SAFE Plus Two program interventions.

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SAFE is the name of the NGO locally

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that has been hired by UNDP

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to bring in the liquefied petroleum gas.

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So that's an excellent indicator.

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And in fact, if you look

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at the performance measurement framework,

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they actually have, I think it's called

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geographic information system monitoring.

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They use satellite imagery of that specific area

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of the forest where the refugees used to go

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to get the firewood,

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and they're planting seedlings in there

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to replace the firewood that was ripped out.

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So they just need to track it

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and to show that that target of 10,700 hectares

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is being protected and sustained.

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And that's excellent.

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So that's a great indicator.

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That's the second indicator, which is pretty good.

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And the first one, which is equivalent basically to it,

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is the number of equivalent hectares

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natural forest protected.

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It's basically the same thing.

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So it's great that they're doing that.

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So that's an excellent indicator.

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Indicator number five, again, is a problem.

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It's tons of carbon dioxide sequestered

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through program interventions.

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Again, how are you gonna claim

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that the LPG coming in has actually sequestered the carbon?

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Now their response could be, duh,

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it is the seedlings that we're planting.

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Okay, I get it.

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But actually measuring the carbon dioxide sequestered,

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waste of time and waste of money.

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Just focus on the forest around the refugee camp,

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which they have done, and show that it's been sustained.

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But also, as I mentioned earlier,

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look at the other expected outcomes from bringing in the LPG.

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And then this is where it gets really a lot of waste

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and fun and time and money.

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The next indicator they've got

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on the environment and ecosystems rehabilitated to, quote,

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strengthen community resilience to mitigate conflict

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over natural resources, disasters, and climate shocks.

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The next indicator they have is, quote,

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resilience capacity score increased compared to baseline.

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The resilience capacity score,

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it measures households' perception

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of their resilience capacities to generic

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or country-specific shocks and stressors.

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And this again is where I say forget about it.

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Don't ask about their perception

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on fighting over firewood.

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Don't do it.

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Just look at, instead of asking for their perception

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to become resilient, which is a waste of time

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and money in measuring it,

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it's also got self-reporting bias.

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Weigh the children, because you're expecting

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their nutritional status to go up.

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Inspect the children, for lack of a better word,

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to see if the smoke inhalation-related illnesses

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related to burning firewood has gone down.

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So all the symptoms of that have been reduced.

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Also ask the women if they've had to go out

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and get firewood, because if they,

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of course they could lie,

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but what you wanna look at is the frequency

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of reporting going out and collecting firewood

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has gone down.

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Those are better measures, direct objective measures

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to see that the LPG coming in is actually having

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the desired outcome, right?

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Forget about this resilience capacity score.

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You don't need it.

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So there's another outcome number three,

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which is the resilience of Rohingya refugees,

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especially women, is sustained.

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And there they've got an indicator,

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which is the resilience capacity score

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is increased compared to the baseline.

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Again, you could ask the women what their perception is

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of fear of going out and collecting firewood,

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but even better, just get to the frequency

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that they're going out and collecting firewood,

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because hopefully it's gone down.

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You could even go a little step further,

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but I wouldn't even try it,

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which is looking at the number of reported,

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because that's tricky,

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reported incidents of sexual assault and rape

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that have occurred in the area where the firewood

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is being collected, right?

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It's better to focus on the outcomes I described earlier.

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And another indicator they've got,

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this is indicator number eight,

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is the average reduced coping strategy index.

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The coping strategies index is a tool

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that measures what people do

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when they cannot access enough food.

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It is a series of questions about how households

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manage to cope with a shortfall in food for consumption

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and results in a simple numeric score.

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Now the problem here again is you have to look at the output.

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Now in addition to bringing in liquefied petroleum gas,

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taxpayers from Canada, $30 million,

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also are spending money in this project on cash.

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That is giving cash to buy food in the refugee camp

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and also cash, I mean from the $30 million,

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to train the refugees in growing their own food

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in a community garden.

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And they only measure this average reduced

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coping strategy index once a year.

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That's not good enough, that's the first problem.

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The second problem is, hello,

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if you're giving them cash to buy food,

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don't worry about this coping strategy index,

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figure out if they're buying the food with it

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and you can do that at the camp.

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I happen to be at the camp.

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I've seen the World Food Program in action.

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The refugees have a digital card

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where they go into stores inside the camp and buy food

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and it's registered on these cards.

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So the World Food Program has detailed data

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on the amount of food that's actually been bought.

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And again, like I said earlier,

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they can also weigh the children in these families

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to see if their nutritional status is going up.

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There's no need to have this average reduced

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coping strategy index measured,

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especially just once a year.

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It's a waste of time and a waste of money

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because the idea here is to increase

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their nutritional status.

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So you do it every six months, I would recommend.

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Forget about this strategy index

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and measure the amount of food they've actually bought

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and or weigh the children.

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And you can even weigh the adults to show

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this is standard nutritional status measures.

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You don't have to have this funky,

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flaky coping strategy index.

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Also measure the garden crop yields if you want

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on the training on how to grow crops.

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But I would even argue who cares about that.

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Go to the end expected outcome,

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which is increased weight gain,

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nutritional status of the children.

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And also the cash purchases of the food items.

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I'm repeating myself here, but that's the idea.

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So no need for this coping strategies index,

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especially when the key outputs in this project are LPG

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and cash for food and training to grow food.

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So just measure the crop yields, food consumption,

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and the weights of the children.

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And that would be good enough.

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The final indicator on this outcome

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of the resilience of Rohingya refugees,

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especially women is sustained.

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Final outcome indicator is percent of households

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with acceptable food consumption score.

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Now again, it's only measured once per year.

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And I would say you need to measure it more frequently.

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And it's a consumption score.

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Maybe they use the data from the World Food Program

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to be fair to them, but we don't know

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because they haven't given me a written response

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or showed up for this part too.

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So maybe they measure acceptable food consumption

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with the data that comes from the World Food Program.

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I'm not, I just don't know.

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It's only measured once per year.

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I would rather go in and measure every six months

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the weights of the children.

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And that would show their nutritional status going up.

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So that's the end of episode eight, part two.

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What I'm gonna do now is send this to the minister

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and the shadow critics as well as UNDP.

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I will copy them on that email so they're aware.

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And if you are interested in receiving

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the performance measurement framework

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and the critique that I've verbally just described here,

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you can send me an email at evaluatecanadaaidatgmail.com.

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And I'd be happy to send it to you.

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I can also send you any of the other

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performance measurement frameworks for season one.

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This ends season one for the podcast.

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I will be returning in September for season two.

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And before I do that, I will be doing one more episode,

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sort of a prologue of season one,

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which gives you an idea of how season two

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is going to be slightly different than season one

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and give you some hints as to what I'm expanding on

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and maybe what I would be refocusing on.

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And I'll probably launch that in a few weeks.

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Thank you for listening and thank you for the feedback.

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00:21:01,540 --> 00:21:04,840
I've received some very positive emails

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00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:09,240
regarding potential learning opportunities on the podcast,

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00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,820
which I'm thinking about, but I'll elaborate more on that

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00:21:12,820 --> 00:21:15,200
in the prologue to season one.

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So that's it.

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Thank you for listening and stay tuned

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00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:23,160
for the prologue for season one and also season two,

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which will start up again in September.

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Bye for now.

