WEBVTT 00:00:05.099 --> 00:00:08.599 Hello and welcome to the So What Podcast, in 00:00:08.599 --> 00:00:11.099 which political economic analyst J .P. Landman 00:00:11.099 --> 00:00:13.939 discusses the issues uppermost in the minds of 00:00:13.939 --> 00:00:16.640 South Africans. You can find a written version 00:00:16.640 --> 00:00:19.679 of this content on J .P.'s website, jpluntman 00:00:19.679 --> 00:00:24.140 .co .za. I am Ruda Landman, and I am your host. 00:00:25.780 --> 00:00:29.899 The So What Podcast goes with J .P.'s newsletter, 00:00:30.140 --> 00:00:33.250 which you can find on his website. This one is 00:00:33.250 --> 00:00:37.149 dated the 20th of March, 2026. And the title 00:00:37.149 --> 00:00:42.810 is US, China, South Africa, Corvadas. With the 00:00:42.810 --> 00:00:45.490 whole world focused on the Middle East, what 00:00:45.490 --> 00:00:49.380 draws your attention to this discussion? Indeed, 00:00:49.399 --> 00:00:52.140 and two things happened. The one was, which was 00:00:52.140 --> 00:00:54.500 very well covered in the media, the comments 00:00:54.500 --> 00:00:57.880 that the new US ambassador to South Africa, Mr. 00:00:58.020 --> 00:01:00.939 Boesel, made, which, as I said, enjoyed a lot 00:01:00.939 --> 00:01:03.259 of media coverage. And then a statement which 00:01:03.259 --> 00:01:06.379 was made by President Xi Jinping in Beijing, 00:01:06.439 --> 00:01:10.640 which attracted a lot less coverage. And so... 00:01:11.019 --> 00:01:13.480 Those are the two things that spurred me on to 00:01:13.480 --> 00:01:16.379 focus on this topic. Now, to discuss this topic, 00:01:16.480 --> 00:01:19.859 I think we must first take a step back and go 00:01:19.859 --> 00:01:24.299 14 years back in history to 2012 when the National 00:01:24.299 --> 00:01:28.170 Development Plan was released. by the then National 00:01:28.170 --> 00:01:31.469 Planning Commission, chaired by then Minister 00:01:31.469 --> 00:01:35.049 Trevor Manuel. And essentially what the National 00:01:35.049 --> 00:01:39.170 Development Plan postulated in 2012 was that 00:01:39.170 --> 00:01:42.310 power is shifting from the West to the East and 00:01:42.310 --> 00:01:44.650 that South Africa must position itself accordingly. 00:01:45.150 --> 00:01:48.030 Now, you may well ask, what does that mean? And 00:01:48.030 --> 00:01:50.469 I think the meaning is that you've got to maintain 00:01:50.469 --> 00:01:53.549 relations with the old, but also develop relations 00:01:53.549 --> 00:01:56.209 with the new. So you've got friends in the West. 00:01:56.670 --> 00:01:59.489 maintain those relations, but there are new powers 00:01:59.489 --> 00:02:02.170 coming up in the East and develop new relations 00:02:02.170 --> 00:02:06.269 with them. That was long before it was anything 00:02:06.269 --> 00:02:09.370 near as clear as it is now. No, absolutely. Almost 00:02:09.370 --> 00:02:12.210 a decade and a half ago. And what has happened 00:02:12.210 --> 00:02:16.349 over this decade and a half is that South Africa's 00:02:16.349 --> 00:02:19.009 trade, South Africa's exports have followed that 00:02:19.009 --> 00:02:24.199 trajectory. Today, as in 2025, 35 % of our exports 00:02:24.199 --> 00:02:27.759 go to Asia. Now, Asia includes China, of course, 00:02:27.780 --> 00:02:30.719 India, but also other countries. 25 % of our 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:34.740 exports go to the European Union, 25 % goes into 00:02:34.740 --> 00:02:38.219 Africa, and the remainder, 8%, goes to North 00:02:38.219 --> 00:02:41.860 America, 4 % to the Middle East, and 3 % to South 00:02:41.860 --> 00:02:44.939 America and Australasia. So you can see that 00:02:44.939 --> 00:02:47.560 our trade has already shifted along the lines 00:02:47.560 --> 00:02:51.300 that a national development plan postulated 14, 00:02:51.460 --> 00:02:54.680 almost 15 years ago. Now, I think what is important 00:02:54.680 --> 00:02:58.169 to do is to appreciate that. When we say South 00:02:58.169 --> 00:03:00.909 Africa exports to China or South Africa exports 00:03:00.909 --> 00:03:04.289 to the EU, in a sense it's nonsense because it 00:03:04.289 --> 00:03:06.729 is not the countries of Africa that are exporting. 00:03:06.889 --> 00:03:08.909 It's not the government. It's not a central agency 00:03:08.909 --> 00:03:11.550 that collects all the exports and takes them 00:03:11.550 --> 00:03:14.689 out. It is hundreds if not thousands of individual 00:03:14.689 --> 00:03:17.469 businesses, some of them small craft makers, 00:03:17.770 --> 00:03:20.430 some of them big mines, some of them big factories. 00:03:20.909 --> 00:03:23.870 It's a range of individual businesses and enterprises 00:03:23.870 --> 00:03:27.490 that take these export decisions. And their decisions 00:03:27.490 --> 00:03:30.750 over time has added up to the numbers that I 00:03:30.750 --> 00:03:32.530 quote. And I think that's a very important point. 00:03:32.610 --> 00:03:34.490 It's individual businesses taking decisions. 00:03:35.289 --> 00:03:38.650 What was President Xi Jinping's announcement? 00:03:39.189 --> 00:03:41.289 It's a very interesting announcement. On the 00:03:41.289 --> 00:03:44.889 12th of February, he announced that in future, 00:03:44.990 --> 00:03:49.590 from the 1st of May, 2026, all tariffs on all 00:03:49.590 --> 00:03:52.930 products from all African countries are scrapped, 00:03:52.990 --> 00:03:57.969 made null. The only exception is Eswatini because 00:03:57.969 --> 00:04:01.490 Eswatini recognizes Taiwan. But all other countries 00:04:01.490 --> 00:04:04.909 in Africa can now export tariff -free into China. 00:04:05.090 --> 00:04:07.389 What are we paying at the moment? It varies. 00:04:07.449 --> 00:04:10.610 On some products, it's null. But in general, 00:04:10.610 --> 00:04:13.270 the tariffs that South Africa pay on exports 00:04:13.270 --> 00:04:17.670 into China is between 10 % and 25%. So it's a 00:04:17.670 --> 00:04:21.790 big change that is being made. At the moment, 00:04:21.910 --> 00:04:26.360 the estimate is that about 8 ,940 product lines 00:04:26.360 --> 00:04:30.279 will go into China data -free. It's a huge announcement 00:04:30.279 --> 00:04:33.819 for the exporters of this country. Are you seeing 00:04:33.819 --> 00:04:37.040 other indications on the ground of the rising 00:04:37.040 --> 00:04:39.839 importance of China? Oh yes, absolutely, particularly 00:04:39.839 --> 00:04:42.139 in the motor industry. You would have seen that 00:04:42.139 --> 00:04:44.939 Nissan, it's been in South Africa for many years, 00:04:45.160 --> 00:04:48.019 is closing its factory that it has in Tswane, 00:04:48.120 --> 00:04:51.069 but the factory and the staff. will be taken 00:04:51.069 --> 00:04:54.769 over by Chedi, the Chinese company. So you're 00:04:54.769 --> 00:04:56.649 just replacing one manufacturer with another 00:04:56.649 --> 00:04:59.430 and production carries on with of course different 00:04:59.430 --> 00:05:02.350 products. The other announcement was subsequent 00:05:02.350 --> 00:05:05.829 to that was the Great Wall Motor Company, GWM. 00:05:06.459 --> 00:05:08.339 they revealed that they are talking to Mercedes 00:05:08.339 --> 00:05:11.420 -Benz to use the Mercedes -Benz factory in East 00:05:11.420 --> 00:05:15.800 London for the production of GWM products. Now, 00:05:15.819 --> 00:05:18.379 they haven't made a deal yet. They made that 00:05:18.379 --> 00:05:20.779 clear. And they're also talking to other parties. 00:05:21.079 --> 00:05:23.879 But it is possible that a deal may, kind of a 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:27.110 sharing deal may be concluded. Now, what is interesting 00:05:27.110 --> 00:05:29.829 here is that an old hand in the motor industry 00:05:29.829 --> 00:05:32.750 told me that when he bought his first car many 00:05:32.750 --> 00:05:35.750 years ago, it was an Alfa. And the Alfa was manufactured 00:05:35.750 --> 00:05:38.069 in that Mercedes -Benz factory in East London. 00:05:38.350 --> 00:05:41.089 So sharing is not a new idea. And it looks as 00:05:41.089 --> 00:05:44.790 if the Great Wall Motor Company is looking at 00:05:44.790 --> 00:05:48.730 that. And what about exports to America? What's 00:05:48.730 --> 00:05:50.730 happening there in the meantime? Well, as you 00:05:50.730 --> 00:05:54.709 know, America has levied a 25 % tariff on automotive 00:05:54.709 --> 00:05:57.629 exports. That's this week. It might be different 00:05:57.629 --> 00:06:02.680 next week. Indeed. 25 % duty on exports into 00:06:02.680 --> 00:06:05.439 America. Now, that, of course, must hit the Mercedes 00:06:05.439 --> 00:06:08.060 -Benz factory in East London really hard because 00:06:08.060 --> 00:06:12.199 they produce the C180 Mercedes for export into 00:06:12.199 --> 00:06:15.199 the US. And one can only assume that those exports 00:06:15.199 --> 00:06:18.339 are taking a knock. And for them, therefore, 00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:20.560 it will make sense to share the factory with 00:06:20.560 --> 00:06:24.790 the great Walmart company. So our trade with 00:06:24.790 --> 00:06:28.029 China is very definitely on an upward trajectory. 00:06:28.069 --> 00:06:30.829 What's happening with the US? I think you've 00:06:30.829 --> 00:06:35.009 just started to indicate that that's going down. 00:06:35.149 --> 00:06:38.589 No, indeed. We don't have the latest numbers 00:06:38.589 --> 00:06:40.810 yet. We'll only get it in due course. But look, 00:06:40.850 --> 00:06:44.160 the trend, I think, is clear. First of all, President 00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:47.279 Trump believes in tariffs. He has believed in 00:06:47.279 --> 00:06:49.620 them for many, many years, and it's a fundamental 00:06:49.620 --> 00:06:52.620 part of his thinking. So he has imposed tariffs 00:06:52.620 --> 00:06:55.240 on the whole world, friend and foe. Whether you 00:06:55.240 --> 00:06:57.120 were a friend of the United States or an enemy 00:06:57.120 --> 00:06:59.899 of the United States, you got tariffs. In fact, 00:07:00.019 --> 00:07:04.839 it looks as if some enemies like the USSR or 00:07:04.839 --> 00:07:08.660 Russia, rather, and China were treated more benignly 00:07:08.660 --> 00:07:13.350 than some of his friends. some of the loyal friends 00:07:13.350 --> 00:07:16.350 over many years. But be that as it may, he levied 00:07:16.350 --> 00:07:19.649 tariffs on all of them. Even countries that have 00:07:19.649 --> 00:07:22.129 succeeded in negotiating a trade agreement with 00:07:22.129 --> 00:07:25.410 the US. are levied with tariffs. They had to 00:07:25.410 --> 00:07:27.990 agree to tariffs in order to get the agreement 00:07:27.990 --> 00:07:32.290 with the US. So I think we must accept that US 00:07:32.290 --> 00:07:36.750 tariffs on exports or imports from the world, 00:07:36.829 --> 00:07:39.490 exports from the rest of the world into the US, 00:07:39.689 --> 00:07:43.129 will remain under tariffs in one way or another, 00:07:43.350 --> 00:07:46.410 certainly as long as Trump is around, and I think 00:07:46.410 --> 00:07:49.629 even after him. And the reason I say that is 00:07:49.629 --> 00:07:52.509 we know from history that tariffs are very sticky. 00:07:53.079 --> 00:07:55.699 Once you've put them into place, it's very, very 00:07:55.699 --> 00:07:57.819 difficult to get rid of them. Because tariffs 00:07:57.819 --> 00:07:59.879 create beneficiaries and they create advantages 00:07:59.879 --> 00:08:02.639 for some classes of people. And those people 00:08:02.639 --> 00:08:05.180 will fight like hell to retain them. So tariffs 00:08:05.180 --> 00:08:07.519 are sticky. And I think we can accept that they 00:08:07.519 --> 00:08:12.259 will stay with us. Some of our exports are exempt 00:08:12.259 --> 00:08:14.600 from the tariffs, though. About half are exempt 00:08:14.600 --> 00:08:16.639 from tariffs. You're quite right. It's mainly 00:08:16.639 --> 00:08:20.199 minerals as well as citrus. So clearly, Mr. Trump 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:21.980 would like to have those products at a cheaper 00:08:21.980 --> 00:08:25.040 price and not a price plus tariff. That's how 00:08:25.040 --> 00:08:27.939 it is in the moment. So South Africa has tabled 00:08:27.939 --> 00:08:31.199 a draft agreement, trade agreement with the US. 00:08:31.259 --> 00:08:36.000 We're keen to negotiate one. That agreement was 00:08:36.000 --> 00:08:38.980 tabled last May already. So it's almost a year 00:08:38.980 --> 00:08:42.279 ago. And since then, there's been no public progress. 00:08:42.500 --> 00:08:44.620 Maybe there has been progress in private, but 00:08:44.620 --> 00:08:47.360 it doesn't look like it. In January this year, 00:08:47.460 --> 00:08:50.340 when he was in Davos, our trade minister, Park 00:08:50.340 --> 00:08:53.259 Stau. revealed that we're still waiting for the 00:08:53.259 --> 00:08:56.580 Americans to give us dates for meetings to take 00:08:56.580 --> 00:08:59.600 place. Now, apparently, I understand that recently, 00:08:59.639 --> 00:09:02.639 in the last week or 10 days, meetings have been 00:09:02.639 --> 00:09:05.200 arranged, but whether anything will come of it, 00:09:05.240 --> 00:09:07.500 we'll have to wait and see. I'm very doubtful. 00:09:07.600 --> 00:09:11.080 I will not hold my breath, simply because the 00:09:11.080 --> 00:09:14.580 Americans have now introduced five preconditions, 00:09:14.580 --> 00:09:17.720 which are non -trade conditions that must go 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:20.860 into a trade agreement. And this was clearly 00:09:20.860 --> 00:09:23.720 spelled out by Ambassador Boesel in his speech 00:09:23.720 --> 00:09:27.019 in South Africa. And they relate to expropriation, 00:09:27.080 --> 00:09:31.179 farm murders, B .E., kill the Boer chant, as 00:09:31.179 --> 00:09:33.700 well as geopolitical alignment. The ambassadors 00:09:33.700 --> 00:09:36.379 made it clear that the U .S. is not going to 00:09:36.379 --> 00:09:39.440 look at anything if it doesn't accommodate these 00:09:39.440 --> 00:09:42.240 five demands. On the other hand, it's quite clear 00:09:42.240 --> 00:09:44.659 that the five demands are politically impossible 00:09:44.659 --> 00:09:47.159 and they really are an attack on the sovereignty 00:09:47.159 --> 00:09:51.110 of South Africa. So I don't see much room here 00:09:51.110 --> 00:09:54.389 for a trade agreement, unless the Americans give 00:09:54.389 --> 00:09:58.090 way, which is not impossible. But I don't think 00:09:58.090 --> 00:09:59.809 there's a chance for an agreement to come into 00:09:59.809 --> 00:10:02.610 existence. So we will have to live with whatever 00:10:02.610 --> 00:10:06.690 tariffs the U .S. wants to impose. What about 00:10:06.690 --> 00:10:10.629 AGOA? AGOA is dead. People constantly refer back 00:10:10.629 --> 00:10:13.870 to it. The reality is simple. AGOA expired in 00:10:13.870 --> 00:10:17.029 September last year. In February, it was renewed, 00:10:17.210 --> 00:10:19.490 but it's only renewed until the end of 2026. 00:10:19.909 --> 00:10:22.190 It's now already March, so you only have about 00:10:22.190 --> 00:10:27.129 nine months left. In any case, the tariffs that 00:10:27.129 --> 00:10:31.620 Trump has levied... overtake or override AGOA. 00:10:31.799 --> 00:10:35.000 So, for example, the general 10 % tariff on air 00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:38.659 exports, that overrides AGOA. The 25 % tariff 00:10:38.659 --> 00:10:41.779 on automotives and automotive products, that 00:10:41.779 --> 00:10:44.899 overrides AGOA. So AGOA, for all practical purposes, 00:10:45.059 --> 00:10:49.059 is dead. And certainly after 2026, it will be 00:10:49.059 --> 00:10:53.519 completely dead. So I don't pay any attention 00:10:53.519 --> 00:10:57.850 to AGOA as a means of regulating trade. But then 00:10:57.850 --> 00:11:00.190 you say, in the meantime, as you put it, life 00:11:00.190 --> 00:11:03.009 carries on. What do you mean? Life carries on 00:11:03.009 --> 00:11:04.610 in the sense that there are currently more than 00:11:04.610 --> 00:11:09.570 500, some estimates say 600, US companies operating 00:11:09.570 --> 00:11:12.529 in South Africa. That's a large number of companies. 00:11:12.789 --> 00:11:15.110 And presumably they won't operate here if they 00:11:15.110 --> 00:11:17.009 don't make money, if it's not to their benefit. 00:11:17.250 --> 00:11:19.929 So they carry on. They make money. They're happy. 00:11:20.049 --> 00:11:23.850 They comply with BE legislation and so on. And 00:11:23.850 --> 00:11:26.230 they live with whatever the problems and constraints 00:11:26.230 --> 00:11:29.169 are in South Africa. And it looks as if more 00:11:29.169 --> 00:11:31.850 companies keep on coming. I mean, just in the 00:11:31.850 --> 00:11:36.389 last week. The big IT company, IT servicing company, 00:11:36.509 --> 00:11:38.750 Spinnaker, announced that they are operating, 00:11:38.970 --> 00:11:41.870 opening an office in South Africa in partnership 00:11:41.870 --> 00:11:45.730 with Patrice Motsepi's ARC, African Rainbow Capital. 00:11:46.909 --> 00:11:49.990 It's a middle -sized company, but it's taking 00:11:49.990 --> 00:11:52.710 on other people operating in the South African 00:11:52.710 --> 00:11:55.789 market, bringing competition. Secondly, there's 00:11:55.789 --> 00:11:58.610 a U .S. company called Rainbow Minerals, not 00:11:58.610 --> 00:12:01.289 to be confused with Mozepe's Rainbow Minerals, 00:12:01.309 --> 00:12:05.169 and they are testing it at the laboratories at 00:12:05.169 --> 00:12:09.789 Mintec in Randberg to extract rare earths from 00:12:09.789 --> 00:12:13.070 the soda ash at Palaborba. That's quite an important 00:12:13.070 --> 00:12:16.350 project, rare earths for the U .S. And lastly, 00:12:16.549 --> 00:12:19.070 Amazon, in direct competition with Starlink, 00:12:19.710 --> 00:12:22.570 is preparing to launch its own low -Earth orbit 00:12:22.570 --> 00:12:25.629 satellites with South African partners that are 00:12:25.629 --> 00:12:29.809 locally licensed. So Starlink is not the only 00:12:29.809 --> 00:12:33.950 low -Earth orbit satellite provider. Others are 00:12:33.950 --> 00:12:35.769 there too, and they're making their services 00:12:35.769 --> 00:12:38.409 available. So it is the same as with exports. 00:12:38.730 --> 00:12:40.649 Individual companies take decisions and they 00:12:40.649 --> 00:12:42.889 carry on with their business. They want to export 00:12:42.889 --> 00:12:45.029 to a country, they will do that. They want to 00:12:45.029 --> 00:12:46.870 open business, they will do that. And that's 00:12:46.870 --> 00:12:49.830 what we're seeing here. What's happening between 00:12:49.830 --> 00:12:54.289 us and the EU and the UK? Well, very interesting. 00:12:54.409 --> 00:12:57.070 It's beyond the scope of this note, but I think 00:12:57.070 --> 00:12:59.669 one should just note that, as I've said, the 00:12:59.669 --> 00:13:04.250 EU takes 25 % of our exports. We've now, in the 00:13:04.250 --> 00:13:07.710 last year, in 2025, towards the end of the year, 00:13:07.950 --> 00:13:10.409 we've signed three agreements with them. One 00:13:10.409 --> 00:13:13.649 is a clean energy and investment agreement. A 00:13:13.649 --> 00:13:17.899 second one is on rare earth minerals. and how 00:13:17.899 --> 00:13:20.360 one has to deal with that. And the third one 00:13:20.360 --> 00:13:24.019 is a comprehensive package of project totaling 00:13:24.019 --> 00:13:27.159 about 12 billion euros, which is a lot of money. 00:13:27.539 --> 00:13:29.879 So these three agreements were signed in the 00:13:29.879 --> 00:13:32.620 latter half of last year, and our trade with 00:13:32.620 --> 00:13:35.340 the EU will just carry on. There are at the moment 00:13:35.340 --> 00:13:39.009 about 1 ,000. EU and UK companies operating in 00:13:39.009 --> 00:13:42.149 South Africa. Compare that to the 600, 500 to 00:13:42.149 --> 00:13:44.730 600 from the US. And it gives you an indication 00:13:44.730 --> 00:13:47.230 of how strong our trade relations with the EU 00:13:47.230 --> 00:13:50.049 are. And it will probably expand. I think that's 00:13:50.049 --> 00:13:55.429 the way it's going. So what? Well, I think the 00:13:55.429 --> 00:13:57.889 first so what is that the question I ask in the 00:13:57.889 --> 00:14:01.129 topic, in the title of this piece, South Africa, 00:14:01.230 --> 00:14:05.379 US, China, Quo Vadis, where to? I think the answer 00:14:05.379 --> 00:14:08.100 to the Kuwaitis question is that there's a big 00:14:08.100 --> 00:14:11.600 repositioning taking place. And this repositioning 00:14:11.600 --> 00:14:14.259 was predicted as long ago already as in 2012. 00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:17.580 So in that sense, it's not new. And we've seen 00:14:17.580 --> 00:14:20.840 how our trade has changed to accommodate that. 00:14:21.200 --> 00:14:24.639 So it is not a new development, but I think it's 00:14:24.639 --> 00:14:26.720 a very decisive development. I think the other 00:14:26.720 --> 00:14:29.139 so what is that the contrast between the way 00:14:29.139 --> 00:14:32.059 that China approaches South Africa. and the whole 00:14:32.059 --> 00:14:33.840 of Africa, for that matter, and the way that 00:14:33.840 --> 00:14:36.940 China and the way that the U .S. approaches South 00:14:36.940 --> 00:14:41.059 Africa is very, very different. And you can only 00:14:41.059 --> 00:14:44.279 draw your own conclusions as to how that will 00:14:44.279 --> 00:14:48.500 affect trade going forward. Likewise, the EU 00:14:48.500 --> 00:14:50.240 and South Africa are moving closer together, 00:14:50.379 --> 00:14:52.860 and the trade and investment on that front will 00:14:52.860 --> 00:14:56.679 probably also increase. I think the other so 00:14:56.679 --> 00:15:01.240 -what -to -do is that The United States and its 00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:04.659 Margo supporters here in South Africa will have 00:15:04.659 --> 00:15:06.639 to accept that the problems in this country, 00:15:06.799 --> 00:15:10.419 whether it's expropriation or crime or whatever, 00:15:10.639 --> 00:15:12.899 will be solved by the people of this country. 00:15:13.039 --> 00:15:16.240 It will be solved through executive action, through 00:15:16.240 --> 00:15:18.399 political negotiations and through the courts. 00:15:18.759 --> 00:15:21.539 It is not going to be solved by outside diktat. 00:15:22.539 --> 00:15:24.879 Trump is not going to rush in on Air Force One. 00:15:25.529 --> 00:15:27.669 and tell the country what to do. That's not going 00:15:27.669 --> 00:15:30.610 to happen. So those problems must be sorted out 00:15:30.610 --> 00:15:35.110 here. And people will have to accept that. I 00:15:35.110 --> 00:15:37.529 think it's very sad that the US policy towards 00:15:37.529 --> 00:15:41.230 South Africa has been captured by the Afrikaner 00:15:41.230 --> 00:15:44.350 genocide narrative. That brings distortions which 00:15:44.350 --> 00:15:47.370 are not good for the relationship. And they will 00:15:47.370 --> 00:15:50.730 have to work through that. So many people say... 00:15:51.129 --> 00:15:54.409 We were at fault in our relationship with the 00:15:54.409 --> 00:15:57.690 US and that's why they are so nasty towards us, 00:15:57.750 --> 00:16:01.269 President Trump specifically. I don't buy that 00:16:01.269 --> 00:16:03.230 at all. I think it is true that South Africa 00:16:03.230 --> 00:16:06.049 has neglected the relationship. We haven't had 00:16:06.049 --> 00:16:10.049 good, efficient ambassadors there. The last one 00:16:10.049 --> 00:16:12.590 was Ibrahim Rasool in his first term, which ended 00:16:12.590 --> 00:16:15.580 in 2014, I think. You'll recall when we were 00:16:15.580 --> 00:16:19.019 in the US in 2013 -14, Rasul was regarded as 00:16:19.019 --> 00:16:22.080 one of the most effective ambassadors. His second 00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:24.279 term, of course, didn't work out like that. But 00:16:24.279 --> 00:16:28.340 after Rasul, we haven't again had effective diplomacy 00:16:28.340 --> 00:16:31.299 in the US. So in that sense, it's true. But no, 00:16:31.419 --> 00:16:33.299 I don't think it's our fault. Trump made it clear 00:16:33.299 --> 00:16:36.360 that very good, loyal friends like Japan, like 00:16:36.360 --> 00:16:39.899 South Korea, like Canada, they all got a kick 00:16:39.899 --> 00:16:42.419 in the butt or a kick in the face, should I rather 00:16:42.419 --> 00:16:45.429 say. That is what Trump, that's his style. That's 00:16:45.429 --> 00:16:47.190 what he's doing with tariffs. So, no, I don't 00:16:47.190 --> 00:16:49.909 think it's our fault. We have the right to decide 00:16:49.909 --> 00:16:52.730 how we run our affairs here inside the country, 00:16:52.870 --> 00:16:55.250 just as the Americans have got the right to decide 00:16:55.250 --> 00:16:58.429 theirs. We don't criticize their domestic policies 00:16:58.429 --> 00:17:00.929 or, for that matter, their foreign policies, 00:17:00.970 --> 00:17:03.990 like the current war in Iran, for example. So, 00:17:04.069 --> 00:17:06.690 no, I don't buy the argument it's our fault. 00:17:07.009 --> 00:17:09.049 The furthest I would go is to say that we've 00:17:09.049 --> 00:17:11.109 neglected the relationship and we've got to rebuild 00:17:11.109 --> 00:17:14.269 it. Whether you can rebuild it with this kind 00:17:14.269 --> 00:17:16.769 of attitude remains to be seen. My late father 00:17:16.769 --> 00:17:18.569 always said, you can only do business with a 00:17:18.569 --> 00:17:21.170 man who wants to do business. And we'll have 00:17:21.170 --> 00:17:24.269 to see whether the US wants to do business. A 00:17:24.269 --> 00:17:27.609 last comment on the impact of the war, the Middle 00:17:27.609 --> 00:17:29.609 East war? Well, I think it's extremely serious 00:17:29.609 --> 00:17:32.450 and it's quite clear what it's doing to the world. 00:17:32.829 --> 00:17:35.809 It'll be bad for everybody, also for South Africa. 00:17:36.599 --> 00:17:40.200 And I think what the war also underscores is 00:17:40.200 --> 00:17:43.359 the fact that power is shifting. Who would have 00:17:43.359 --> 00:17:46.440 thought that a country like Iran, which is really 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:50.279 a middle size to small power, can exert the influence 00:17:50.279 --> 00:17:54.700 that it does. So power is shifting and it's important 00:17:54.700 --> 00:17:57.960 that we stay abreast of that. Thank you very 00:17:57.960 --> 00:18:00.920 much. Thank you. And to our listeners, go well 00:18:00.920 --> 00:18:05.119 until the next time. Thank you for listening 00:18:05.119 --> 00:18:08.099 to the So What Podcast. If you enjoy this content, 00:18:08.380 --> 00:18:11.279 please don't forget to leave a review and a rating, 00:18:11.319 --> 00:18:14.059 and please consider subscribing so you don't 00:18:14.059 --> 00:18:17.259 miss any future episodes. Also, tell your friends. 00:18:17.660 --> 00:18:20.240 Remember, you can find a written version of all 00:18:20.240 --> 00:18:23.940 JP's content at jplandman .co .za.