WEBVTT

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Hello and welcome to the So What podcast, in

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which political economic analyst J .P. Landman

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discusses the issues uppermost in the minds of

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South Africans. You can find a written version

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of this content on J .P.'s website, jplandman

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.co .za. I am Ruda Landman, and I am your host.

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This podcast goes with J .P.'s newsletter, dated

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the 14th of October 2025. And the title is Project

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Wollendlela. But before we come to that, JP,

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it's been a while. Why the silence since, what

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is it, July? Yes, we must apologize to our readers

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and regular listeners for the long period of

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silence. Basically two reasons. I fell ill with

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pneumonia and couldn't shake it. That dragged

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on and dragged on. And then I've been... very

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busy and between those two impediments I can't

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do couldn't do the kind of deep research that

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I like to do when I do the compile the notes

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so that's what happened my apologies but we're

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all healthy now and happy and going on and here

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we are with the next episode talking about Willem

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Lela Well, there was also food poisoning while

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you were on the road, poor thing. Yes, yes. I

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was doing a roadshow and developed food poisoning

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and that was extremely uncomfortable. So, yes,

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all these things contributed. But fortunately,

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that's now behind us. So, why Project Fullendlela?

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It's been going for a while. Why do you want

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to focus on it now? In one of the roadshows I

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did in the last couple of weeks, we went around

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the country and spoke to about nine or ten business

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audiences. And I underlined the fact that they

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were business audiences. And in each of those

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meetings, I asked the audience members, do you

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know about Project Will and Leila? Do you know

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what it is? And to my shock and horror and amazement.

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Very, very few people knew about it. In fact,

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there were two of the towns and cities in which

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we were, where nobody in the audience have heard

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about Burundlela. And that made me realize that

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it is such an important program. And that made

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me realize that the ordinary business people

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out there do not have, shall I say, sufficient

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knowledge of what's going on. Why is Burundlela

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important? It is the most meaningful economic

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program by the government, economic policy program

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by the government since 1996 when the GEER program

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was launched. Since then, we've had many economic

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programs. We've had ASGISA. We had the new economy

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plan. In Zuma's time, there was the nine -point

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plan. Then there was the National Development

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Plan. And lately, in the last few weeks, the

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ANC has released the 10 -point economic plan.

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None of them are as comprehensive and as focused

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on implementation. That's really the point, as

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focused on implementation as the Volendela project.

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And I thought it's important that we talk about

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it. You go back to 2019 to find the origin. Absolutely.

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In 2019, October 2019, it's now six years ago,

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The then Minister of Finance, Titimo Bueni, released

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an innocent -looking document from the National

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Treasury, about 62, 63 pages, outlining changes

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that have to happen in the economy, structural

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change that must come in various areas. There

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was a huge hullabaloo. The document was condemned

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by some people as a sop. to new liberalism. It

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was condemned by others as a rogue document.

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Somebody said treasury has gone rogue. And yeah,

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there was a huge reaction. A month later, Tito

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Mubuweni went to the National Executive Committee

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of the ANC. And he apologized that he released

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this document before it was discussed internally

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by the ANC. So clearly, he believed that it's

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better to ask forgiveness later than to ask permission

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up front. So that's the background. That was

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in 2019. Sorry, but why? Why were people so shocked?

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What was in the document that was so different?

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As you will see when we go through the detail,

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what it basically entailed is that room must

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be made for the private sector. That's the big

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organizing principle if you pull it through.

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Room must be made for the private sector to come

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into areas where traditionally there has been

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government monopolies, like energy, for example,

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like logistics, like water. And with that, the

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private sector must also bring in capital and

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management expertise. And that was quite an important

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rubric online for many people in the ANC. Hard

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for the ANC to make that shift. For some of them,

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yes, absolutely. Clearly not for Mbueni and also

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not for the government, because what happened

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in 2020, we got COVID, the country went into

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a lockdown. But then in October 2020, a year

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after this rogue document was released, Government

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released an economic reform and recovery program

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to recover from COVID. And that program was basically

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premised on the document released by Titimo Bovene

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on the road document. And from then on, that

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became official government policy, basically

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from October 2020. And it was in the sonar, presidential

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sonar of February 21, where Ramaphosa just slipped

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in a little sentence in the speech to say that

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this document is now official government policy.

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And from there on, we had Willem Lela. What are

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the focus areas? There are five of them. It is

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electricity, spectrum release and digital communication.

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Water, freight transport, that is railways and

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ports, and number five, visa and skilled migration.

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Now, you must remember this, we now talk about

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2021, 2020, 2021. These issues then were very

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prominent and paramount. Some of them still are.

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And the point about Project Will and Leila was

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it was a combined team of the presidency and

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national treasury that worked together to drive

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changes in these five areas through the government

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bureaucracy. The word Will and Leila means make

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way or open up. You know, it was get out of the

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way. remove the constraint, remove the obstacle.

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That's basically what the word means. Well, my

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little bit of Zulu says, open the road, the way.

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Well, there you are. There you are. That's a

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very good description of what it is about. Point

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number one was electricity. And that is probably

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the one area that people know about. But summarize,

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where were we with load shedding in 2021? It's

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very important to remember that load shedding

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was the big story. That was the big thing. We

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had stage six load shedding in 2020. We had load

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shedding virtually every day. So the first thing

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that we worked on was to try and fix load shedding.

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And the number of things were done. And today,

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it's now 2025, we look back and the issue of

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generating too little power. That is what load

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shedding is. You generate too little power for

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the need. That has been resolved. There may be

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individual areas in the country where municipalities

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have failed and there's load shedding or load

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reduction, as it's now called, in those areas.

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But the national problem of not producing enough

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electricity has been resolved. But something

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else happened in the process, and that is that

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the electricity industry was completely deregulated.

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Electricity used to be a state -run monopoly,

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run by ESCOM. It's a system that developed over

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many, many decades. It served the country well

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until about 10, 15 years ago. And the rest of

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the world has moved on to deregulated electricity

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markets in one way or another. And with this

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crisis of load shedding that we had in South

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Africa, we've taken the gap to not just solve

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the load shedding problem, but to reorganize,

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deregulate electricity. And I think it's important

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to do that just to understand how far this has

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gone. We have the example of Richards Bay Minerals

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in Richards Bay on the eastern side of the country.

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They are now, it's a smelter. A smelter uses

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a lot of electricity constantly. They now buy

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70 % of the electricity from solar and wind producers

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in the Western Cape. And then the electrons are

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sent across the country to the eastern part of

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Richards Bay. And they run a smelter on it. Not

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exclusively, as I've said, 70 % of their power.

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But, and this is the other important point, they

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buy that power, they say, at about 70 % of the

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tariff that ESCOM charges. So that's how far

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this thing has developed. Just in the last two

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weeks or so, we heard about Glencore, an international

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mining company. who run coal mines in South Africa.

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They have now signed an agreement to buy renewable

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energy from solar and wind to run a coal mine.

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Just think of the irony of that. Now, these things

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were completely impossible three years ago, four

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years ago. Couldn't happen. The law was against

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it. The law has been changed. The regulations

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have been changed. And a completely new dispensation

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is evolving. Now, obviously... vested interest

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in the old dispensation like ESCOM are not keen

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and they're trying to resist and they're trying

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to protect their position everybody will do that

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but it's quite clear which way the trend is going

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and the trend is away from from certainly a government

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monopoly to private sector private enterprise

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producing and selling electricity and the subsequent

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trend is away from coal to produce electricity

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to other sources of energy, like solar and wind

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and so on. It's quite a magnificent change that's

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happening in our country. And electricity is

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such an important basic network industry. If

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things go wrong there, it really circles out.

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If things go right there, you have the opposite

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kind of positive consequences. It also strikes

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me that there's been a mind shift. almost a national

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mind shift, that we no longer think that this

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is weird. That's a very important point that

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you're picking up on. Because we grew up, you

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and me and our generation, we grew up with state

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monopolies in certain areas. Electricity was

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one, but also in logistics. You call it a state

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monopoly, but from the recipient's point of view,

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it was simply the state provides. Yes. Yes, exactly.

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And that has now been broken and is being broken.

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Look, it's a journey. We must accept that. It's

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not happening overnight, but there's no question

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about the change. There's no question about the

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direction. There's no question about where we're

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going. And that is Project Ruland Lela. Number

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two on their list was Spectrum Release. And I

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think we as the users don't really notice what

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happened there. No, absolutely. Spectrum release

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was on the agenda, was supposed to be done, and

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was delayed for 10 years. Why was it delayed?

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Well, first, there were lots of political wranglings,

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particularly in a time of the Zuma administration.

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And then when Ramaphosa took over and the politics

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were sorted out, there were core challenges.

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And so we had this ironical thing that... Virtually

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everybody, three, four companies went to the

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High Court to say that the conditions of spectrum

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release, you know, are not fair to them. And

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that was all resolved. And after the delay of

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10 years, a spectrum auction took place in, I

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think it was in March 2022, yes. And that spectrum

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auction realized 14 and a half billion rand.

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for the government fiscus, money which is obviously

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welcome now for the fiscus. But the real point

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for you and me is now that spectrum that was

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released could now be used to introduce 4G and

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5G. And if you now go across the country, you

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know, 5G is very available, certainly 4G is,

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and we've moved on from 2 and 3G where we were.

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In fact, I think there's an effort going on by

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the telcos to close down. 2G and 3G stations,

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the public has moved on. So all this is possible.

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4G and 5G, which will be of us for forever, has

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been made possible because of digital spectrum

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release. And that was one of the first wins or

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victories that Volendela registered. And we've

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now forgotten about it. But spectrum release

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was certainly a big story. Number three on their

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list is water. Has anything shifted? Because

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once again, from the point of the consumer, it

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looks a bit dire. Absolutely. And yes, to answer

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your question, yes, things have shifted. Number

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one, the Zuma administration in its time abolished

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or suspended a water and sanitation measuring

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system known as blue drop, green drop or no drop.

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The logic was probably if you don't know about

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a problem, the problem doesn't exist. This was

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brought back by the Ramaphosa administration.

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Those reports, we've now had the first versions

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of those reports and obviously they make for

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dire reading because the water and sanitation

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and loss problem, as we know, drop comes in.

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Losses are quite high and we know there's a problem,

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but now at least we know it. And what you measure,

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what you know, you can manage. That's the first

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one. The second thing is we now have 11 projects

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going on countrywide. to a tune of about 156

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billion rand to have bigger bulk water supply.

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So you start at the top, you aggregate water,

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you have bulk water supply, and now you must

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distribute it to various municipalities and so

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on. So our problem now lies with distribution

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by municipalities. They will say, we didn't know

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what was going on, so you started measuring.

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Then you worked on bulk water that is now in

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process and being fixed. Now you've got distribution

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by municipalities, which is currently the big

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problem. And there are two interesting initiatives

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going on. The first one is to ring fence water,

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also electricity, but let's talk about water,

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to ring fence water activities inside municipalities

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as a separate utility, so that the money that

00:14:50.129 --> 00:14:54.149
comes in from water is put back into water, into

00:14:54.149 --> 00:14:56.309
maintenance, into infrastructure, into proper

00:14:56.309 --> 00:14:59.679
billing, that sort of thing. So this is what

00:14:59.679 --> 00:15:02.100
Will and Leila is now working on, is the ring

00:15:02.100 --> 00:15:05.340
fencing of water supply. Because previously that

00:15:05.340 --> 00:15:09.100
money has been used to pay other salaries. Absolutely.

00:15:09.240 --> 00:15:11.480
It went into the general income of a municipality

00:15:11.480 --> 00:15:14.519
and it was spent on general expenses. And we

00:15:14.519 --> 00:15:17.179
know that municipalities overspend on things

00:15:17.179 --> 00:15:20.000
like salaries, obviously patronage, that sort

00:15:20.000 --> 00:15:23.340
of thing. And this will help to curb that. The

00:15:23.340 --> 00:15:25.279
second change that is taking place, and I think

00:15:25.279 --> 00:15:27.720
it's a big one, again, it will take time, is

00:15:27.720 --> 00:15:31.679
to distinguish in a municipality between the

00:15:31.679 --> 00:15:33.980
constitutional obligations of a municipality

00:15:33.980 --> 00:15:37.879
to be a water service authority. What is a water

00:15:37.879 --> 00:15:40.440
service authority? They must make sure that the

00:15:40.440 --> 00:15:43.039
citizens in their area are serviced, that they

00:15:43.039 --> 00:15:45.240
are not overcharged, that the poor gets their

00:15:45.240 --> 00:15:48.820
proper share, and so on and so forth. But you

00:15:48.820 --> 00:15:51.879
separate those obligations from being a water

00:15:51.879 --> 00:15:54.720
service provider. The provider is the one that

00:15:54.720 --> 00:15:57.279
must lay the pipes, make sure they work, issue

00:15:57.279 --> 00:15:59.779
bills, collect the money, and so on. Do the actual

00:15:59.779 --> 00:16:01.980
work. Do the actual work. Now, in South Africa,

00:16:02.139 --> 00:16:06.480
the 250 -odd municipalities we have do both.

00:16:06.879 --> 00:16:08.779
They're the water service authority, but they're

00:16:08.779 --> 00:16:11.289
also a water service provider. There are only

00:16:11.289 --> 00:16:13.750
two exceptions to that. And the one is the Dolphin

00:16:13.750 --> 00:16:15.690
Coast, on the Dolphin Coast in KwaZulu -Natal.

00:16:16.250 --> 00:16:20.230
And the other one is in Mpumalanga. There, they've

00:16:20.230 --> 00:16:23.450
already separated the delivery of water from

00:16:23.450 --> 00:16:26.309
the responsibility for water. One is a political

00:16:26.309 --> 00:16:27.929
function, the other one is a management function.

00:16:28.549 --> 00:16:31.070
So the idea is to bring that across the whole

00:16:31.070 --> 00:16:33.629
country. Now, obviously, municipalities don't

00:16:33.629 --> 00:16:37.009
like this. Obviously, they will resist it. But

00:16:37.009 --> 00:16:40.299
obviously, they will have to come along. because

00:16:40.299 --> 00:16:43.259
there's a fiscal crisis developing around municipalities

00:16:43.259 --> 00:16:47.340
not paying for water. And again, it's quite clear

00:16:47.340 --> 00:16:50.879
in which way the direction is. And that's an

00:16:50.879 --> 00:16:53.240
important follow -up work that Wurundjela is

00:16:53.240 --> 00:16:56.019
doing now. Now, obviously, you can't tackle 250

00:16:56.019 --> 00:16:59.980
-odd municipalities simultaneously. So Wurundjela

00:16:59.980 --> 00:17:02.580
is now focusing on six of the country's eight

00:17:02.580 --> 00:17:05.779
metros to help them to get their water function

00:17:06.490 --> 00:17:10.250
re -established, ring -fenced with proper management

00:17:10.250 --> 00:17:13.950
and running it. It also, with the separation

00:17:13.950 --> 00:17:17.809
of water authorities and water providers, there's

00:17:17.809 --> 00:17:20.650
also a licensing regime that is brought in with

00:17:20.650 --> 00:17:23.910
standards that must be met by the provider. And

00:17:23.910 --> 00:17:26.009
if the provider doesn't meet those standards,

00:17:26.549 --> 00:17:29.809
the license can get cancelled and can be given

00:17:29.809 --> 00:17:32.740
to somebody else. So you can take the license

00:17:32.740 --> 00:17:35.140
away from a municipality as a water provider

00:17:35.140 --> 00:17:38.319
and give it to a private company or a not -for

00:17:38.319 --> 00:17:41.339
-profit NGO or a community -based organization.

00:17:41.960 --> 00:17:44.880
These changes are now possible. The Water Act

00:17:44.880 --> 00:17:47.980
is being amended to make that possible. Point

00:17:47.980 --> 00:17:50.539
number four on the Wollendlella list, freight

00:17:50.539 --> 00:17:53.960
transport, rail and ports. We hear quite a lot

00:17:53.960 --> 00:17:57.000
about that, but how far is the process? Let's

00:17:57.000 --> 00:18:00.769
separate railways from ports. Again, the organizing

00:18:00.769 --> 00:18:03.329
principle is that you want to bring in private

00:18:03.329 --> 00:18:06.609
companies on running certain railway lines, railway

00:18:06.609 --> 00:18:09.910
sectors, and also private companies to run ports.

00:18:10.750 --> 00:18:14.970
On the railway side, after a long period of delay

00:18:14.970 --> 00:18:17.009
and preparatory work that had to be done, you

00:18:17.009 --> 00:18:19.910
must remember, Ruda, we've had the government

00:18:19.910 --> 00:18:23.750
run rail services for the best part of 150 years.

00:18:24.269 --> 00:18:26.349
So you now have to change that whole system.

00:18:26.799 --> 00:18:29.720
And you have to take out the inherent conflicts

00:18:29.720 --> 00:18:32.460
of interest. You cannot expect a private sector

00:18:32.460 --> 00:18:35.279
to come in and run a particular railway line

00:18:35.279 --> 00:18:38.579
if they are not sufficiently protected and independent

00:18:38.579 --> 00:18:43.079
from transnet unfair competition. So you had

00:18:43.079 --> 00:18:45.420
to establish a railway regulator. You had to

00:18:45.420 --> 00:18:48.579
break transnet railways up between an asset manager

00:18:48.579 --> 00:18:53.160
and an operating company. These kinds of preparatory

00:18:53.160 --> 00:18:55.539
works take time. They require legislative changes,

00:18:56.000 --> 00:18:59.160
accounting changes and so on. But that has now

00:18:59.160 --> 00:19:03.200
progressed to the point where 11 sectors have

00:19:03.200 --> 00:19:05.539
been put up for bidding by the private sector.

00:19:05.660 --> 00:19:09.839
More than 50 companies applied. Some 25 were

00:19:09.839 --> 00:19:14.000
selected. And those 25 are now negotiating with

00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:16.839
Transnet, with the infrastructure manager. to

00:19:16.839 --> 00:19:19.740
lease these railway lines, what the conditions

00:19:19.740 --> 00:19:22.519
will be, who will take what responsibility, where

00:19:22.519 --> 00:19:25.500
the risk will lie and so on. And what will happen,

00:19:25.539 --> 00:19:28.619
which is busy happening, these companies interested

00:19:28.619 --> 00:19:32.559
in doing the business will either rent railway

00:19:32.559 --> 00:19:36.019
stock from Transnet or they will bring in new

00:19:36.019 --> 00:19:38.200
stock from overseas. Apparently a contract has

00:19:38.200 --> 00:19:41.259
been signed to bring rolling stock in from Australia.

00:19:42.079 --> 00:19:44.119
So the companies will bring their rolling stock,

00:19:44.339 --> 00:19:48.099
they will pay a fee, the fee will go into infrastructure

00:19:48.099 --> 00:19:51.579
investment, and that way you want to resuscitate

00:19:51.579 --> 00:19:56.160
the railway system. With that, a second tender

00:19:56.160 --> 00:19:59.539
has been put out by Transnet for railway sidings

00:19:59.539 --> 00:20:02.759
to be taken over by private operators, private

00:20:02.759 --> 00:20:05.779
people, to run the sidings. Now, you know, if

00:20:05.779 --> 00:20:08.539
you go through the country, we see a sorry sight

00:20:08.539 --> 00:20:11.660
of a lot of sidings that have been... just dilapidated

00:20:11.660 --> 00:20:13.900
and neglected. So it's an effort to turn that

00:20:13.900 --> 00:20:16.839
around. Because efficient sidings mean you can

00:20:16.839 --> 00:20:20.039
park trains, let other trains park, you can offload

00:20:20.039 --> 00:20:23.819
cargo. It makes for more flexibility in the system.

00:20:24.099 --> 00:20:25.700
That's why you have them in the first place.

00:20:26.579 --> 00:20:28.759
And the fact that they went to wreck and ruin

00:20:28.759 --> 00:20:32.059
actually undermines the operation of the entire

00:20:32.059 --> 00:20:36.099
system. How many little blocks that go into building

00:20:36.099 --> 00:20:38.400
this tower? And I think that's a very important

00:20:38.400 --> 00:20:41.799
point. It is not... You can't just do a big bang.

00:20:42.359 --> 00:20:47.700
It's not like just abolishing prices or abolishing

00:20:47.700 --> 00:20:49.440
exchange control. That's a big bang. You can

00:20:49.440 --> 00:20:52.339
do it one night, government gazette, done. Here

00:20:52.339 --> 00:20:55.460
you have to move a lot of small parts and bring

00:20:55.460 --> 00:20:58.359
them all aligned. And that's happening. So some

00:20:58.359 --> 00:21:00.240
people say it's happening too slow. That may

00:21:00.240 --> 00:21:04.230
be. But, you know, you must work with what you

00:21:04.230 --> 00:21:06.589
have. Just before we leave the railway lines,

00:21:06.769 --> 00:21:10.009
this is not part of Volendela, but Praza is also

00:21:10.009 --> 00:21:13.210
recording some interesting progress. And I think

00:21:13.210 --> 00:21:15.990
our listeners must just take note of that. In

00:21:15.990 --> 00:21:19.529
a future research piece, we may deal with that.

00:21:19.809 --> 00:21:21.730
So those are the railway lines. What's happening

00:21:21.730 --> 00:21:24.849
on ports is similar logic. Bring the private

00:21:24.849 --> 00:21:27.630
sector in. Now, the big one was Durban, Durban

00:21:27.630 --> 00:21:31.319
Pier 2. That's South Africa's largest harbour.

00:21:31.759 --> 00:21:34.019
Transnet has given a concession to a Philippine

00:21:34.019 --> 00:21:38.119
company to run it. Well, first there was a bidding

00:21:38.119 --> 00:21:41.119
process. It was given to a Philippine company,

00:21:41.359 --> 00:21:44.019
one of the biggest port operators in the world.

00:21:44.420 --> 00:21:48.220
One of the companies that lost, I think, a mask,

00:21:48.319 --> 00:21:50.740
then took the case to the High Court. And that's

00:21:50.740 --> 00:21:54.200
caused a two -year delay. Now, you know, in the

00:21:54.200 --> 00:21:57.519
ideal world, you don't want such a delay. quick

00:21:57.519 --> 00:22:01.160
decisions, if possible, no court decisions. But

00:22:01.160 --> 00:22:04.079
that's how it is. And we're now through it. The

00:22:04.079 --> 00:22:06.259
High Court has ruled in favor of Transnet. The

00:22:06.259 --> 00:22:09.059
Philippine company can now take control of Durban

00:22:09.059 --> 00:22:13.480
Harbor and do the investment and train the people.

00:22:13.660 --> 00:22:16.140
So that has already progressed. But then similar

00:22:16.140 --> 00:22:19.339
outsourcing tenders have been released for Richards

00:22:19.339 --> 00:22:23.240
Bay, for the Cougar Harbor in the Eastern Cape.

00:22:23.839 --> 00:22:26.660
And now also for some activities in the Cape

00:22:26.660 --> 00:22:29.559
Town Harbour for LNG facilities. We will have

00:22:29.559 --> 00:22:32.420
to import gas in the near future to supplement

00:22:32.420 --> 00:22:35.380
our energy supply. The more you do renewables,

00:22:35.480 --> 00:22:41.079
the more you need gas to even out the intermittency

00:22:41.079 --> 00:22:45.880
of renewables. But for that you need gas. And

00:22:45.880 --> 00:22:50.079
so we will build LNG terminals and bids for that

00:22:50.079 --> 00:22:52.700
has gone out. So you can see it's the same story.

00:22:53.279 --> 00:22:55.660
Open up where Transnet used to do everything.

00:22:55.839 --> 00:22:58.160
Open up, let private companies come in. They

00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:01.079
must bid competitively and they must bring capital.

00:23:01.180 --> 00:23:03.339
And I think this is important. Nothing is being

00:23:03.339 --> 00:23:06.599
privatized. It's the misconception that these

00:23:06.599 --> 00:23:09.539
things means privatization. What is privatization?

00:23:09.839 --> 00:23:12.200
It's a change in ownership. There's no change

00:23:12.200 --> 00:23:15.859
in ownership. Transnet remains the owner of the

00:23:15.859 --> 00:23:18.549
property. Think of it as a house that you own.

00:23:18.670 --> 00:23:21.009
You get a new tenant. The tenant comes in and

00:23:21.009 --> 00:23:23.809
fixes your house. He uses his money to fix your

00:23:23.809 --> 00:23:27.109
house. And then he still pays rent as well. I

00:23:27.109 --> 00:23:29.690
mean, how is that not a good deal for the homeowner?

00:23:30.150 --> 00:23:32.250
But it's also a good deal for the guy who wants

00:23:32.250 --> 00:23:35.769
accommodation and wants to, maybe a house is

00:23:35.769 --> 00:23:38.809
not the right example. Well, maybe he rents out

00:23:38.809 --> 00:23:40.650
the rooms to students. Maybe he rents out the

00:23:40.650 --> 00:23:42.609
rooms to students. Absolutely. So he can use

00:23:42.609 --> 00:23:44.250
it to make money. And that's what's happening

00:23:44.250 --> 00:23:48.400
here. And then the fifth one on the list, visas

00:23:48.400 --> 00:23:52.400
and skilled migration. Yeah, we all know about

00:23:52.400 --> 00:23:54.119
the progress that has been made there. The new

00:23:54.119 --> 00:23:56.960
Minister of Home Affairs has really rattled the

00:23:56.960 --> 00:23:59.259
cage. I think a lot of that is work that was

00:23:59.259 --> 00:24:01.559
done by his predecessor and he was happy, he

00:24:01.559 --> 00:24:04.839
was lucky enough to reap the rewards. I think

00:24:04.839 --> 00:24:07.539
one must say that. But the fact is it's happening

00:24:07.539 --> 00:24:10.220
and it's changing the way we're dealing with

00:24:10.220 --> 00:24:12.319
visas. It's changing the way in which we can

00:24:12.319 --> 00:24:14.539
accommodate tourists. The work is not completed

00:24:14.539 --> 00:24:18.099
yet. It will carry on. But the big thing, the

00:24:18.099 --> 00:24:21.000
big aim is to make it easier for skilled people

00:24:21.000 --> 00:24:23.980
to come here, make it easier for remote workers

00:24:23.980 --> 00:24:27.660
to come and work here and service their clients

00:24:27.660 --> 00:24:30.660
in the US or Europe or wherever. And the third

00:24:30.660 --> 00:24:32.819
one, of course, is tourism. And if we can get

00:24:32.819 --> 00:24:35.160
those things right, you can unlock a huge number

00:24:35.160 --> 00:24:38.259
of jobs and economic growth. So you summarize

00:24:38.259 --> 00:24:41.099
this actually under the heading from a developmental

00:24:41.099 --> 00:24:44.700
state to a partnership state. Yeah. And what

00:24:44.700 --> 00:24:46.839
my thinking was there, and you would notice there's

00:24:46.839 --> 00:24:50.019
a question mark because I think it's not definite,

00:24:50.160 --> 00:24:53.299
but my thinking is as follows. Since it has come

00:24:53.299 --> 00:24:55.779
into power, the ANC has worked with the concept

00:24:55.779 --> 00:24:58.160
of a developmental state. And they basically

00:24:58.160 --> 00:25:00.380
got it from Southeast Asia, from South Korea,

00:25:00.559 --> 00:25:05.440
Taiwan, and, of course, China, who are the prime

00:25:05.440 --> 00:25:08.059
examples of a developmental state. And the ANC

00:25:08.059 --> 00:25:11.180
tried to copy that here. I think it's safe to

00:25:11.180 --> 00:25:14.039
say that we know it didn't work. The idea of

00:25:14.039 --> 00:25:16.140
a developmental state is that you take an SOE,

00:25:16.200 --> 00:25:18.079
a government company, a government enterprise,

00:25:18.400 --> 00:25:21.839
and they must drive developmental work. How much

00:25:21.839 --> 00:25:24.210
developmental work has come out of ESCOM? How

00:25:24.210 --> 00:25:26.410
much has come out of Transnet? How much has come

00:25:26.410 --> 00:25:29.130
out of our water authorities? How much has come

00:25:29.130 --> 00:25:31.589
out of our very dysfunctional municipalities?

00:25:32.369 --> 00:25:35.609
So I think what we're seeing here is a collapse,

00:25:35.829 --> 00:25:38.549
if I may use that word, of the notion of a developmental

00:25:38.549 --> 00:25:41.890
state and a move over to a partnership state

00:25:41.890 --> 00:25:44.369
where you bring people into traditional state

00:25:44.369 --> 00:25:47.450
functions. You don't privatize, you concession

00:25:47.450 --> 00:25:50.710
and you liberalize. I think liberalize is a much

00:25:50.710 --> 00:25:53.809
better word than privatization. And they now

00:25:53.809 --> 00:25:55.829
coming, private sector players are now coming

00:25:55.829 --> 00:25:58.690
into areas where the state used to be. And to

00:25:58.690 --> 00:26:00.910
do that, they have to work together. They have

00:26:00.910 --> 00:26:02.849
to develop a common understanding of where's

00:26:02.849 --> 00:26:05.309
risk, where's reward. Who's taking responsibility

00:26:05.309 --> 00:26:09.730
for what? It is a coexistence. It's not a single

00:26:09.730 --> 00:26:13.009
existence. So I think politically speaking, what

00:26:13.009 --> 00:26:15.329
we're seeing is a move from developmental state

00:26:15.329 --> 00:26:18.130
to a partnership state. And that's a very new

00:26:18.130 --> 00:26:21.500
direction in our politics. We have a completely

00:26:21.500 --> 00:26:24.339
new dispensation since last year's election.

00:26:25.480 --> 00:26:29.160
Did that upset the apple cart? No, not at all.

00:26:29.240 --> 00:26:34.339
It reinforced the apple cart. The program that

00:26:34.339 --> 00:26:37.319
we've discussed in this podcast so far was started

00:26:37.319 --> 00:26:39.660
by the previous administration, the sixth administration.

00:26:39.980 --> 00:26:42.200
They launched Wallenlela. They launched the five

00:26:42.200 --> 00:26:44.440
areas. And that was basically the ANC. They had

00:26:44.440 --> 00:26:48.220
a majority. They were governing. Correct. And

00:26:48.220 --> 00:26:50.519
so they must get the credit for it and where

00:26:50.519 --> 00:26:52.680
people want to blame, they blame. The government

00:26:52.680 --> 00:26:55.279
of National Unity, first of all, endorsed that.

00:26:55.400 --> 00:26:59.440
The DA in particular was quite keen on Wollendlela.

00:26:59.819 --> 00:27:01.940
And the government of National Unity has now

00:27:01.940 --> 00:27:04.660
launched Wollendlela 2. What is Wollendlela 2?

00:27:04.859 --> 00:27:07.420
It is a continuation of the work that is not

00:27:07.420 --> 00:27:10.940
finished yet from Wollendlela 1, like water,

00:27:10.980 --> 00:27:13.960
for example, and electricity, the development

00:27:13.960 --> 00:27:16.509
of electricity market and so on. But the Government

00:27:16.509 --> 00:27:19.569
of National Unity has added three items to Wurundlela

00:27:19.569 --> 00:27:21.990
II. The first one is municipalities, local government.

00:27:22.609 --> 00:27:24.670
How you fix that, I don't know. That's going

00:27:24.670 --> 00:27:27.470
to be a very hard nut to crack. But it's there,

00:27:27.529 --> 00:27:29.069
it's the priority, and they've started working

00:27:29.069 --> 00:27:31.950
on that. The second one is what is called spatial

00:27:31.950 --> 00:27:35.630
inequality. The fact that we still have the legacy

00:27:35.630 --> 00:27:37.950
of group areas, and we have a lot of particularly

00:27:37.950 --> 00:27:41.109
working class people living very far away from

00:27:41.109 --> 00:27:43.369
the places of work, which is the opposite of

00:27:43.369 --> 00:27:46.450
what you find in a... normal city, if I can put

00:27:46.450 --> 00:27:49.230
it that way. So there are concrete things that

00:27:49.230 --> 00:27:54.210
can be done there. And most important is suburban

00:27:54.210 --> 00:27:56.930
transport. In other words, railway lines and

00:27:56.930 --> 00:27:59.589
bus lines. And in these, these things are part

00:27:59.589 --> 00:28:02.769
of the Villanueva program under the item of spatial

00:28:02.769 --> 00:28:06.250
inequality. Also release land where it's possible

00:28:06.250 --> 00:28:09.650
for access by poor people. And then the third

00:28:09.650 --> 00:28:11.549
one added by the government of national unity,

00:28:12.200 --> 00:28:14.519
is a transformation to a digital governance.

00:28:14.740 --> 00:28:16.599
And the idea is that every citizen must have

00:28:16.599 --> 00:28:20.579
a digital ID and all interactions with the government

00:28:20.579 --> 00:28:23.319
is via that digital portal. There are countries

00:28:23.319 --> 00:28:27.299
using that and the roadmap must now be developed

00:28:27.299 --> 00:28:30.279
for South Africa to do that. That's detailed.

00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:33.359
The point is those three areas. Local government.

00:28:34.700 --> 00:28:37.500
digital and spatial inequality have been added

00:28:37.500 --> 00:28:40.180
by the Government of National Unity to Wollonglela.

00:28:40.579 --> 00:28:43.759
Wollonglela is now housed in the presidency and

00:28:43.759 --> 00:28:47.980
a project team in the presidency is driving the

00:28:47.980 --> 00:28:51.539
implementation. Can this make a difference to

00:28:51.539 --> 00:28:54.900
our dismal growth rate? Well, that's the whole

00:28:54.900 --> 00:28:57.720
reason why we're doing it, is to try and improve

00:28:57.720 --> 00:29:00.829
growth and with that, jobs. And the Bureau for

00:29:00.829 --> 00:29:03.809
Economic Research at Stellenbosch released last

00:29:03.809 --> 00:29:07.650
year a very important research paper in which

00:29:07.650 --> 00:29:11.390
they modeled the impact of these changes that

00:29:11.390 --> 00:29:14.769
Willem Lela is striving for. And the impact is

00:29:14.769 --> 00:29:17.349
that over a period of two, three years, growth

00:29:17.349 --> 00:29:22.490
can move from 1 % now to 3 .5 % in two or three

00:29:22.490 --> 00:29:25.970
years' time. They have since updated their work

00:29:25.970 --> 00:29:28.609
and they're more or less sticking with that timeline.

00:29:29.710 --> 00:29:31.750
take a year or so longer. Trump's tariffs of

00:29:31.750 --> 00:29:36.750
course will cause a delay and other things may

00:29:36.750 --> 00:29:40.269
cause a delay but there's no doubt about it that

00:29:40.269 --> 00:29:42.549
the dividend will come through and that ties

00:29:42.549 --> 00:29:45.690
up with what we know. You look around the world

00:29:45.690 --> 00:29:48.670
when governments embark on structural reform

00:29:48.670 --> 00:29:51.769
you get a productivity improvement and then growth

00:29:51.769 --> 00:29:55.089
and a classic example is India. India for many,

00:29:55.150 --> 00:29:58.069
many years after independence had a very low

00:29:58.069 --> 00:30:02.230
growth rate, 1 % thereabouts. Then Mohammed Singh

00:30:02.230 --> 00:30:05.289
became Minister of Finance and India ran into

00:30:05.289 --> 00:30:09.130
a big foreign currency crisis and a budget crisis.

00:30:09.269 --> 00:30:11.609
And he said, well, we can't carry on like this.

00:30:11.670 --> 00:30:14.950
We've done it now for a couple of decades. And

00:30:14.950 --> 00:30:19.069
he launched big economic reforms. He then became

00:30:19.069 --> 00:30:22.069
Prime Minister, Mr. Singh, and carried on with

00:30:22.069 --> 00:30:25.500
the reforms. He passed away the other day. His

00:30:25.500 --> 00:30:27.759
government was replaced by the current Modi government.

00:30:28.279 --> 00:30:31.140
Modi is pursuing it further and India's growth

00:30:31.140 --> 00:30:34.720
rates now are spectacular. So I don't think India

00:30:34.720 --> 00:30:37.480
ever used the word Project Villain Leela. You

00:30:37.480 --> 00:30:39.700
know, that was not there. But it's the same kind

00:30:39.700 --> 00:30:43.079
of thing. You open up the economy. What was called

00:30:43.079 --> 00:30:46.900
a Raj economy was transformed by Mohammed Singh

00:30:46.900 --> 00:30:49.700
through structural reform. And that's what's

00:30:49.700 --> 00:30:51.880
happening here. in South Africa now. So yes,

00:30:52.019 --> 00:30:54.140
you look at India, you look at other countries,

00:30:54.240 --> 00:30:56.680
when you do structural reform, there's a productivity

00:30:56.680 --> 00:30:59.559
increase and there's a growth dividend. And that's

00:30:59.559 --> 00:31:02.140
the way I think this one will play out. In summary,

00:31:02.299 --> 00:31:05.240
so what? The key point about Volunt Leela is

00:31:05.240 --> 00:31:08.420
it's not another policy paper. It's about implementation.

00:31:08.900 --> 00:31:12.220
And there's a huge difference. So we've had,

00:31:12.339 --> 00:31:14.359
as I've said in the beginning, several policy

00:31:14.359 --> 00:31:17.109
papers. This one is about implementation, and

00:31:17.109 --> 00:31:20.369
we can see from the record that there are actual

00:31:20.369 --> 00:31:22.710
practical results coming out. So that's one.

00:31:24.589 --> 00:31:26.730
I think it's important for business people in

00:31:26.730 --> 00:31:28.950
particular to take note of what's happening with

00:31:28.950 --> 00:31:32.289
Will and Leila. The fact that in nine cities

00:31:32.289 --> 00:31:34.630
and towns across the country, very few people

00:31:34.630 --> 00:31:38.150
knew about it, I think is perturbing. And taking

00:31:38.150 --> 00:31:40.309
the trouble to understand more about what's happening.

00:31:41.380 --> 00:31:44.019
will be good for confidence. And let's face it,

00:31:44.059 --> 00:31:46.420
the smart money is already there. Those entrepreneurs

00:31:46.420 --> 00:31:49.380
who are tendering for railway lines, tendering

00:31:49.380 --> 00:31:53.619
for contracts in the harbors, in the ports, the

00:31:53.619 --> 00:31:56.920
people who are investing in 4G and 5G, the smart

00:31:56.920 --> 00:31:59.220
entrepreneurs are out there. Smart money is out

00:31:59.220 --> 00:32:04.000
there. Don't be left behind. I think the third

00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:07.380
so what, as you put it, there's lots of small

00:32:07.380 --> 00:32:10.220
pieces that must be put together. It's a journey.

00:32:10.650 --> 00:32:13.869
It's not a big bang. It's not a one -eyed stand,

00:32:14.009 --> 00:32:15.970
if I can put it that way. This is a long -term

00:32:15.970 --> 00:32:19.009
marriage that you have to work through. And we

00:32:19.009 --> 00:32:21.309
must have the patience with that. Then there's

00:32:21.309 --> 00:32:24.069
the point that I think we are moving from a developmental

00:32:24.069 --> 00:32:26.450
state to a partnership state. I really think

00:32:26.450 --> 00:32:29.130
that's in progress. Now, of course, the politicos

00:32:29.130 --> 00:32:33.500
will argue about this and so on. ANC stalwarts

00:32:33.500 --> 00:32:35.799
will say no no no the state must remain in control

00:32:35.799 --> 00:32:38.359
and on the other side right wingers will say

00:32:38.359 --> 00:32:41.619
everything must be privatized leave that aside

00:32:41.619 --> 00:32:44.359
for the big majority of people in the middle

00:32:44.359 --> 00:32:47.500
I think this shift from developmental to partnership

00:32:47.500 --> 00:32:50.599
is a shift that fits in with the mood in the

00:32:50.599 --> 00:32:55.180
country It fits in with the GNU. And I think

00:32:55.180 --> 00:32:57.960
that's the way the country is moving from developmental

00:32:57.960 --> 00:33:01.279
to partnership. Thank you very much. Most interesting.

00:33:01.519 --> 00:33:05.079
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00:33:05.079 --> 00:33:08.299
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00:33:08.299 --> 00:33:10.660
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