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Hello and welcome to the so-what podcast, in which politically-economic analysts J.B.

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Landman discusses the issues up-a-most in the minds of South Africans.

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You can find a written version of this content on J.B.'s website jblandman.co.za

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I am Ruda Landman and I am your host.

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This conversation, accompanies. is newsletter dated 19 September 2024 and titled

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So far so good.

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focusing on the G.N.U. the Government of National Unity.

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It's now two and a half months.

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Is it going to last?

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It certainly looks like it's so far and I say that because the first red line for the Government

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of National Unity was the so-called BELA Act, Basic. Education Law Amendment Act.

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The D.A. as well as the Freedom Front Plus made it clear before they joined the Government

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of National Unity that this is a red line for them.

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That if the President signs the bill then they will leave, Lantzelle was really was

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suffocated about that but also John Steenhuysen.

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Well, the President did sign it and nobody left.

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The President did play a clever card. He delayed the bringing into operation of clauses

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four and five of the bowl which are the two contentious clauses.

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And he said he would delay that for three months to enable a political process, political

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discussions between various parties and stakeholders to try and resolve the issue.

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That was a good move and we must now see what happens in the next three months.

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Let's just play out the scenarios if a political compromise is reached and well then

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great, then the problem is resolved.

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If it is not reached then the matter will go to the constitutional court.

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I think that's a fairly certain assumption.

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And if the court says these clauses are not valid, well of course then they won't come

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into force and effect and the matter is settled.

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If the constitutional court says no, all this is fine, there is no constitutional problem

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with it.

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Well then then that's the story and the parties who have committed themselves to the constitution

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cannot then walk away because the constitutional court gave ruling that they don't like.

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So I think we're over that red line.

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The second red line of courses in H.I.

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But the President has already made it abundantly clear on several occasions that he wants

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to see talks and negotiations around that.

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So I would expect in the next year or two, significant political movement around this,

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around in H.I.

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And that will probably remove that from the red line list as well.

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I see that there are some commentators who say that this process was the President signing

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a bill which then becomes an act.

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But holding back on some elements of it that it clouds the legislative process.

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Well, yes and no.

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But it enhances the legislative process and has since the Judeal with critical problem

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areas.

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Take for example the electricity regulations amendment bill which the President signed earlier.

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They also suspended the clause because the local government association has indicated that

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they will take that particular clause on review to the constitutional court.

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And the President said, well, okay, then let's not in acted.

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Let's hold back and see if we can find a compromise.

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I think that is the intelligent and wise way of dealing with it.

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What's the purpose of RAM running something through and signing it if people are in

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any case going to take it to court and you've got a whole aggressive contestation around

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it.

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I think it's better to try and find a political solution.

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First of the day, Andy A and C have cut people loose.

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How did they happen and why?

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Well, the day has cut loose two people.

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The one was John Siennace and Chief of Staff, which you appointed and then very shortly after

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asked him to resign as well as a member of Parliament that has been highlighted.

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That is made range of offensive remarks over the long time, long period.

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And he was expelled from the party.

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He lost his membership and therefore he also lost his parliamentary seat.

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I think what we see in that case is it's okay to have strong views and articulate them

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strongly and so forth, but they're not really in line in tandem with the spirit of a government

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of national unity.

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So the day I judged it wisely to cut them loose.

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I think that tells you something about the impact that the president is having.

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On the other side, we saw that Czikotwa who resigned as a member of the Government because

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he was charged, then surprisingly came back as a member of Parliament and now he's resigned

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from that as well.

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And I think once again what we see is that he's realizing if you are seen countering to people

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with a record and people that are charged, you're going to pay an electoral price.

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So they cut that loose as in loose as well.

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And I think what it indicates is people appreciate that the body politic has changed.

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You cannot just do what you want and stick to your position and then the rest.

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You've got to behave in a way which reinforces the model.

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There are also other parties in the G&U, apart from the ANC and the DA and some of them have

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or had before the elections, even more radical positions, our new Minister of Land Affairs

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comes from the PAC.

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How's that playing out?

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Playing out very well and you're quite right.

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The PAC is well known for the stand-on-land matters, for they meet a kind of a red line.

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I'm using the description.

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That's not what they said.

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But restoring land to the previously dispossessed is a very very important part of the PAC

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tradition and philosophy.

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Now the leader of that party is the Minister of Land Affairs.

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So one could expect fireworks or speak.

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What he said was he made an early speech, early in his tenure and he said that at some

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stage the country must have an adult conversation around exploration and then he moved

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on and he said in the meantime, there is low hanging fruit that can be harvested.

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What is the low hanging fruit that they had in mind?

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He highlighted two.

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The first one is fishing out title deeds to beneficiaries.

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People look at land and people look at houses.

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They have them title deeds, so there is no question about their legal ownership.

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And secondly he said that the government has got to speed up the process of land restitution.

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We people have put in claims and those claims are not being resolved yet.

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Now land restitution is of course a program which is particularly specifically mandated

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by the constitution.

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So it must be done anyway.

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And I think it's two very sensible, sensible proposals, two very sensible low hanging fruit

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so to speak.

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So there again you can see that it's not about slow-consistive solutions.

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And I think for that one must commend him and he probably wouldn't have taken that position

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if he wasn't in the government.

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It seems to me that this also gives us a kind of answer to something that people said before

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which is, oh this part is going to get that position so they will now put into practice

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their specific policies.

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Now we see that that doesn't happen.

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They have to work as a unit.

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You can only put in place or push forward the policies of the government of national unity,

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not of your party.

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If your party is for example in favor of the death penalty.

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Well that's an easy one, it's against the constitution so that's easy but even politically

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the majority of parties in the G and U doesn't want the death penalty.

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So you can't get on your high horse and start planting it.

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You've got to take the line of the government of national unity and by definition that

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is a kind of a moderate in the middle line.

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Yeah you're quite right.

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Party cannot pursue their own positions.

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They have to pursue their own positions within the framework of the big government of

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national unity.

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What do you think motivates a party to stay in the G and U even when this tension and disagreement?

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Well you know if you inside the tent then you can help to move things along.

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You can help to change things.

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Maybe even only in theory and only on the margin but at least you can do that.

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So it's much nicer to be in the scrum and to push forward and try and capture the ball

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than what it is to just stand on the sidelines and shout.

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The thing that's number one.

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Number two, the party is gain visibility when you are the minister or the deputy minister

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of something and you move around and immediately attracts you and so on.

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It's visibility not just for you but also for your party and thirdly the perks, the benefits.

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So people are not going to move away or walk away voluntarily from the perks, from the

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visibility and from that feeling of being part of the scrum.

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They will stay.

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All of this sounds like good news by cutting the pictures.

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There's a bit different.

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Absolutely.

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The cutting is the outlier.

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It's the one place where the idea of a government real government of national unity has not

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taken place yet.

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We see that in the province, provincial government but we also see it in the Joe Berg, Johannesburg

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and Tuany Metros.

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That's a great disappointment.

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It's also a great missed opportunity.

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I think both the provincial government and the metro governments will be much stronger if

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you can involve the biggest and second and third biggest parties in the government rely

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on their expertise and ability and work together to improve conditions.

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So Rudau will have to see what extent the ANC will pay a price for this approach because

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they had the one driving it.

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The local government elections of 2020-26 is only about 26 months away.

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It's not a long time.

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If you're thinking about the next 26 months, you'll be able to improve substantially over

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the next 26 months.

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If you serve as the delivery and the quality of administration and so on, do not even

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do not improve substantially.

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I think the ANC will pay an electroprisse.

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But how it is certainly the outlier to the national picture.

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You say the ANC, but in 20 it's actually a which is making the trouble.

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Yeah, quite right.

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And I think they will probably pay a price.

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I think Action A said that much worse than what they thought they would in the election.

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So they are already weaker.

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Maybe this is a kind of a desperate play from them.

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I don't know.

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But I can't imagine that that's the kind of thing that the people who voted for Action A

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say want them to do.

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So yes, I think they will also pay a price.

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They're not part of the GNU are they?

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No, they're not.

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He's been very with several seven machabas with very the separatists that he will not work with the ANC.

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And now he's working with the ANC in Toronto.

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So much for promises.

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What can the rail that you and you?

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Well if we look back at our own history and the experience of the government of National

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Unity that we had after 1994 for two years, it is quite clear that the biggest danger,

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the biggest risk, is inside the political party itself.

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In the sense that those people in the political party who is not in the executive, who is not

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a minister or a deputy minister, start attacking the colleagues who are in the executive

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and say, why didn't you do this?

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Why did you agree to that?

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Why did you support that?

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You know, you can hear the accusatory tone coming through.

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That played a role in the collapse of the government of National Unity after 94.

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People in that government told me that.

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So I think that is the big danger here.

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That people in ANC are saying to the ANC leaders, guys, what are you doing here?

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You are going to fall and people in the day will say, guys, what are you doing here?

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You're going to fall.

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So you've got to keep your own people not under control, but you have to bring your own

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people along, I think that's the important point.

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And that's where the internal party managers, like Fakili Mubalula, in ANC and Helen Zelle,

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in the day where they play a very, very important role.

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They did this their responsibility not just to look after the party, which is of course what

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they must do, but they must also help and carry the government of National Unity.

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Those internal party managers have got a very important job.

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And let's see how they conduct themselves over the next year or two.

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A major criticism of the G&U is that it means that we now have 10 more cabinet members,

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cabinet members, then we had before and that it's very costly.

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Yes, that is the criticism.

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We have two more cabinet ministers.

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We used to have 28 day now, 30.

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We have eight more deputy ministers.

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They used to be 35, then now 43.

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So you've got a total of 10 more.

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And so yes, on the first sound, it sounds as if that's really expensive on the first

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yearing.

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But let's just look at the picture from the other side, what did we get in return for

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the 10?

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Well, we got 21 people who are not from the ANC now in the executive.

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We got 12 people from the DA who is now in the executive.

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In exchange for the 10, if you want to look at that way, we also have four people from

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the IFP now in the executive.

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And then you have people from a range of other parties like Good, Al-Jama and so on who

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now are sitting in the executive.

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So now you have to ask yourself a simple question.

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These new people that have come in with new energy, with diversity, with a different perspective

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from life and so on, are they making the government stronger a weeker?

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I think they make the government stronger.

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They bring new ideas, they bring different approaches.

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Am I happy to pay for that? We've seen extra cabinet ministers, I'm certainly very happy

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to do that.

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I would much rather have a bigger cabinet that is more diverse and have more new

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comers than just the same old, same old that we used to have.

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What will be the real taste of this government?

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If we when we look back in five years time, how will we judge it?

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I think the most important test would be what the government has achieved, looking back what

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it has achieved in bringing down poverty, unemployment and inequality.

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Those those three things poverty, unemployment and inequality are by far the biggest problems

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in South Africa.

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And you're not going to solve other problems if you don't solve those problems.

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So the government of national unity will be in my view, will be judged by that.

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Now is that possible?

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Well, as you know, we are now in the 11th year, 2020, 4 is the 11th year.

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So we've had more than a decade with the population grew faster than the economy.

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The economy grew at about one and a bit per cent.

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The population is growing at 1.5, 1.6 per cent.

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So you're going backwards all the time.

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You're creating new jobs.

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At the end of 2023, we had as many jobs as we had before covered struck in 2020.

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So that's something to celebrate, but what happened in 2021, 2022, 2023?

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Well, three to four million new people enter the labour market.

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So your unemployment goes up.

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You've got the same number of jobs, but the unemployment goes up.

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So you have to grow the economy faster than the population.

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It's a simple matter of mathematics or accounting.

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And these are tests.

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The government of national unity will have to get our economic growth rate to at least

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3.5 per cent, double the rate of population growth.

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Then we can get somewhere.

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Now, the good news is that the Bureau of Economic Research at Stalingbars has done the

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work and they've published their findings.

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And basically, they say if the changes or the reform under Project Will and Laila are implemented

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in energy, in harbours, in railways, in water and so on, then we can achieve over the next

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two to three years, three and a half percent growth.

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That view of free and a half percent growth has since been confirmed by the governor of the

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bank of the Reserve Bank.

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And also by the epidemiolastrofinance.

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By the way, the epidemiolastrofinance, who is a very committed Will and Laila supporter, is also

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a leader of the ASACP.

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And they have again one of those wonderful paradoxes that you find only in South Africa.

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So I think it's quite possible the manufacturing survey was released by the BR and what

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they found was that politics as a constraint on manufacturing.

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Politics as a constraint on manufacturing is now the lowest level that it has been since

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2012.

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And so that's a significant development.

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And what you also see with that is a sharp increase in manufacturing investment.

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We're talking manufacturing sectors specifically now.

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And that is without doubt good news.

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And then yesterday the consumer confidence index was released and that is also improved from

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what it was.

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Not as dramatically as manufacturing but it has improved.

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So the bottom line is I think the government of national unity is a confidence dividend

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coming out of it and that dividend is already spreading investment and hopefully will

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also spread consumers to take a slightly more optimistic note.

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And that builds well for the economic growth.

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So I think it is achievable but that will be the test.

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Can they get economic growth to a level substantially more than population growth and do something

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for poverty and employment in inequality?

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And that depends on the structural reforms contained in the Brazilian program.

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Now it is both simple and complicated simple in the sense that we don't have to do 55

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things.

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Simple in the sense that we don't have to go to the IMF for the World Bank.

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There's a home ground solution right here.

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But as reforms are of course not easy.

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Performing railways and reforming harbors is not easy process and completing the reforms in

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energy is also complicated.

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So in that sense it's complicated.

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But you know what you want to do, you know what you have to do is only the execution.

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That is complicated.

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So I think it's really doable.

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In summary, so what?

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Well I think the first so what is the development of national unity has survived its first

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red line.

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You may recall if you go back over news headlines of the last three months that when the government

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assumed they said, okay, right, the government is now formed but what about these two red

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lines?

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Bellar and NHI.

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Well we've now passed Bellar and on NHI the tone is already changing.

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So this expectation stroke fear that the government of national unity will just collapse

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simply has not materialized and I think that votes well for the stability of the government.

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I think secondly all the parties who are now currently in the government of national unity

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are operating in the middle.

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They're not operating on the flinges.

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They then bring the parties are the logical positions.

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And the list of the ideological positions are in line of the government of national unity.

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So the government is playing in the middle of the field, not on the left and not on the

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right.

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And that I think is a very strong class for the country.

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And we see that the improved confidence measures that I have for the fator.

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And I think the last so what is that this government, this government of national unity,

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is really presenting the base chance for South Africa to break out of this stagnation of

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the last decade.

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Basically from you can say from the time of the world cup we've been trading water for

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a decade, decade and a half.

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And I think this brings the real opportunity of changing that into a much more dynamic

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situation.

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Thank you for listening to the so-what podcast.

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