1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:11,240 Hello and welcome to the So What podcast in which political economic analyst JP Landman 2 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:16,400 discusses the issues uppermost in the minds of South Africans. You can find a written 3 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:25,920 version of this content on JP's website jplandman.co.za. I am Ruda Landman and I am your host. 4 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:34,320 Hello and as always a very warm welcome to this podcast which accompanies JP's latest 5 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:40,680 newsletter dated the 17th of June 2024. And if you look at that date then of course it 6 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:48,800 has to be elections. But the subtitle is interesting, a historic shift to the middle. JP you start 7 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:56,880 with a whole list of things that you say did not happen and which are almost as important 8 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:03,600 as what did happen. Yes absolutely. I identified six things that people predicted beforehand 9 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:10,400 with great intensity and certainty will happen in this election and it did not happen. And 10 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,880 you know Winston Churchill said if you want to look forward all you have to do is look 11 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:20,160 backwards. And so if we look a little bit backwards to what did not happen in this election campaign 12 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:25,400 over the last two or three months and particularly in the last month then we learn quite a few 13 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,720 things. And the first thing that we learn is that all the predictions about violence 14 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:37,740 did not materialise. We had all manner of threats being made from all sides. The commentary 15 00:01:37,740 --> 00:01:43,200 art joined in and predicted how bad will it be. Security groups released all kinds of 16 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,600 cautionaries on how people must defend their properties and themselves and so on and so 17 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:53,960 forth. And in the end the violence did not really materialise. Also if you go a little 18 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:59,600 bit deeper and you look at political assassinations, so far this year, and it is now June so it's 19 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:06,040 only half a year, but so far this year 11 people have been killed in political assassinations. 20 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:13,120 Last year that number was 30 and the year before that was 41. Now our 11 political murders 21 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:20,240 11 too many? Absolutely. Is it less than 30 and 41? Absolutely. So the violence thing 22 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:25,320 that did not occur and a reduced level of political assassinations I think is something 23 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:31,540 to note and to celebrate. The second thing that did not happen was the threat of huge 24 00:02:31,540 --> 00:02:37,800 disruptions either on election day or on a day that the results were announced. Well 25 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:44,000 again none of that happened. Quite apart from violence, if we just talk old fashioned disruption, 26 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:50,200 it did not happen. And once again it tells us that our institutions are holding that 27 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:57,520 the majority of our people are actually not the radical kind of rabble rousers that people 28 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:02,320 predict them to be. The third thing and probably the most important thing is the fear that 29 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:07,760 if the ANC loses power it will cling to power and will not let go. Well that was proved 30 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:14,280 and wrong in quite a spectacular way. Within two weeks the ANC moved from being a majority 31 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:22,440 party to a minority party dependent on other people, other smaller parties and doing that 32 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:27,200 transition in two weeks. It was absolutely quite astonishing. The results were announced 33 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:33,000 on the 2nd of June and 12 days later on the 14th of June the DA and other opposition parties 34 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,840 signed the coalition agreement. I think it is something that again we take for granted. 35 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,900 We think that's the way it should be. But of course it's not necessarily the way it 36 00:03:41,900 --> 00:03:47,960 should be as we saw in the United States in the presidential election of 2020. The fourth 37 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:53,560 thing that did not happen was that Cyril Ramaphosa was not kicked out by the ANC when the ANC 38 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:59,920 support dropped to 40%. This was widely predicted by a number of analysts and members of the 39 00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:05,000 commentary art. It did not happen. The fifth thing that did not happen was that load shedding 40 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:11,040 did not start or recommence the day after the votes were counted. Now of course load 41 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:17,000 shedding can come back. I think that's a given. But give credit where it's due. For 80 days 42 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:22,280 we haven't had load shedding and it's not because we burned more diesel. The diesel 43 00:04:22,280 --> 00:04:28,080 numbers have been made public. They're well known. They're out there. No we did not or 44 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:33,880 ESCOM did not burn more diesel. Yet in fact they've burned about a tenth of what they 45 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:39,440 burned last year this time. It was a dramatic reduction in diesel burning and in spite of 46 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:46,920 that load shedding did not return. So maybe time to take our default cynicism and temperate 47 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:53,320 a bit. And then the last observation I want to make is the polls were not wrong. As polls 48 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:58,760 were published in the election period and results came out and people saw different 49 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:03,720 trends and so on. There were a variety of people that you would expect. They're actually 50 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:13,880 a bit more better informed. That's a better formulation. Dismissed the polls and said 51 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:20,200 it's not, you know, it can't be. It's probably wrong and so on. And in the end no poll got 52 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:26,280 the numbers 100% correct. No poll did that. But the polls did tell us about the big trends. 53 00:05:26,280 --> 00:05:31,320 It did tell us about the big breaks coming and it has transpired in that way. So Ruda 54 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:37,560 you can make of these six non-happenings as I call them. You can make of these six non-happenings 55 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:43,120 whatever you want, whatever you wish. But for me what stands out is the point I've already 56 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:49,400 made. Most sub-africans are not radical. They do not sit on the extremes. They sit in the 57 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:55,360 middle and all they want to see is a peaceful at ease country with itself and I think we 58 00:05:55,360 --> 00:06:00,760 saw that. And the second thing that came out is our institutions are robust. They were 59 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:05,400 attacked. They were threatened. They were put under pressure. They came through with 60 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:11,080 flying colors. And the third thing I think which is quite clear is that we have the capacity 61 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:18,920 in the country to conduct world quality, global quality polls and also after the first election 62 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:24,760 results come in global quality projections of what the final result would be. Most of 63 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:30,280 the projections were absolutely spot on and even those that were a little bit shaky in 64 00:06:30,280 --> 00:06:35,980 the beginning corrected themselves and gave us a projection very early on in the counting 65 00:06:35,980 --> 00:06:41,360 phase which gave us the final result. And I think that's something that we as sub-africans 66 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,140 can be proud of. 67 00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:50,600 And if we look at where we are now which looked so impossible just a day before the election 68 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:57,400 results were announced, you did write about the possibility of a Toenadring, a moving 69 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:02,920 closer between the DA and the ANC, twice in 2023. Remind us. 70 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:09,400 Yes, a year ago, 13 months ago in May 2023, I did a note where I said exactly that that 71 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:16,120 I think we need in the country a grand coalition. I define the grand coalition as the big parties 72 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:22,600 of the middle, the ANC and the DA coming together reinforcing the middle ground. Of course, there 73 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:28,560 were people who didn't like the suggestion. But a couple of months later in August 2023, 74 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:33,960 I did a follow-up note in which I pointed out the developments that are taking place 75 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:39,880 at that stage have taken place in our body politic, which pointed clearly that we're 76 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:45,240 moving towards coalition territory. So that was in May and in August. And then of course, 77 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:51,640 in May this year, the actual election result, the fact that the ANC was pushed to 40% pushed 78 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:57,600 us very firmly into coalition territory. So that is where we are now. 79 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:02,880 Why the government of national unity rather than a coalition? 80 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:10,720 I think that was a very sophisticated finesse, if I can use breach terms, that was played 81 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:17,120 by the ANC. What did the ANC achieve by talking about the government of national unity? First 82 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:24,680 of all, they avoided a binary choice between either the DA or the EFF MK. The entire world, 83 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:29,760 South Africa, the global media, everybody, when the election results became clear, bought 84 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:34,680 into this binary choice. It'll have to be either this one or that one. And the ANC, 85 00:08:34,680 --> 00:08:40,160 which have always been good political operators, sidestepped that binary choice by introducing 86 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:45,080 the notion of a government of national unity. With that, they got the initiative back, they 87 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:49,480 avoided the binary choice, and they were sort of in charge of the process. And that brought 88 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:56,800 the second consequence of the ANC doing that by inviting people to join the government 89 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:02,520 of national unity based on common values. And then they made predominant, the common 90 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:08,160 values are adherence to the constitution, adherence to the rule of law. By putting that 91 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:17,360 upfront very strongly, they effectively sidelined or marginalized the EFF and MK because both 92 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:21,320 those two parties cannot meet those preconditions. 93 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,640 Well, especially MK. 94 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:30,480 They're in favor of replacing the entire constitution. But the ANC didn't have to make a song and 95 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:37,920 dance about it. They just put up the precondition and the other two parties then walked away. 96 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:42,920 So they marginalized themselves, which puts the ANC in a better political position. 97 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:50,840 You also make an interesting point about how our electoral system actually gave rise to 98 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,120 where we're at now. 99 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:58,800 Yeah, I feel very strongly about that. In 1994, our forefathers and mothers gave us 100 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:05,360 an electoral system which is based on proportional representation or also called party lists. 101 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:10,640 Now we did a bit of a survey and what we found is there are 87 countries in the world with 102 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:17,360 proportional representation electoral systems. And two-thirds of those countries, two-thirds 103 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:25,080 of those 87 countries do not have a majority party. They all run along the lines of coalitions. 104 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:31,160 In a proportional system, unlike a constituency system, every vote counts the same. It's very 105 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:36,960 different from a constituency first, past, or post system. So if you live in Ruda in 106 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:43,240 Bupumalanga in a rural area or you live in a city in Cape Town, your vote counts exactly 107 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:48,160 the same. And those votes are all, doesn't matter who you vote for in different part 108 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:54,200 of the countries, it all gets added together for one party or one movement. So everybody 109 00:10:54,200 --> 00:11:00,000 is represented in parliament on a basis of equal weighting of the votes. You cannot get 110 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:07,640 a situation that we had in the UK, for example, as recently as 2019, when the Tories won an 111 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:14,600 election were 45% of the popular vote, but 55% of the seats in parliament. It's a nonsense 112 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:20,440 situation. And so what did the Tories do with their 55% parliamentary majority? They rammed 113 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:25,560 through Brexit. We had a similar thing in South Africa in 1948, when the National Party 114 00:11:25,560 --> 00:11:32,880 came into power and started apartheid legislation. The National Party didn't have a majority 115 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:38,560 of votes in 48. They were sitting somewhere in the 40%, but they got more than 50% of 116 00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:43,760 the seats in parliament. In fact, the National Party only got a majority of the popular vote 117 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:50,280 10 years later in 1958. For 10 years, they ruled on a minority of votes, but a majority 118 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:55,480 of seats. Now that's the nonsense that you end up with in the constituency system. A 119 00:11:55,480 --> 00:12:01,920 proportional system is much more representative. That's the point. And everybody gets a bite 120 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:07,880 at the apple, so to speak. So that is the system our founding fathers and mothers gave 121 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:13,800 us. I think it works well for this country. And what it also means, if we look at other 122 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:19,360 countries in the world, I don't think we will soon, I don't think in my lifetime, maybe 123 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:24,800 in young people's lifetimes, we may again see a party with 50% plus one of the vote. 124 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:32,640 But it is the exception. In a proportional system, many parties get votes and they have 125 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:37,000 to come together to form a coalition government. So I think it's quite a big change that took 126 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,720 place in the governments that we elect. 127 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:46,600 Many South Africans will be quite worried about this because coalitions at local government 128 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,000 level have been disastrous. 129 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:54,120 Absolutely. You're quite right. After 2016 and 2021 local government elections, when 130 00:12:54,120 --> 00:13:00,000 we started getting coalition governments at local government level, things have not worked 131 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:07,360 out well. It was a terrible experience. Why? And I think the answer is that those coalition 132 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:13,720 parties that formed coalition governments in various municipalities focused on the who, 133 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:15,160 not on the how. 134 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:16,880 In other words, who gets the job? 135 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:21,620 Who gets the job? Who gets the salary? Who's the mayor? Who's the speaker? Who's the chairman 136 00:13:21,620 --> 00:13:28,560 of committees? Who's getting the bigger package? Instead of focusing on how, how are we going 137 00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:32,880 to govern? What are we going to try and do? And how are we going to try and achieve those 138 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:38,300 goals? It's a very big difference. It's a switching of the same letters, who and how, 139 00:13:38,300 --> 00:13:40,040 but it's a very different outcome. 140 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:47,400 Now there's an interesting thing that happened in KZN about a year ago. The DA and IFP, in 141 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:53,120 Qatar freedom party, signed a coalition agreement for the 13 municipalities in which they had 142 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:58,320 coalition majorities. They ruled the municipality. It's a unique document in South Africa because 143 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:04,740 what did they do or what does it do? They started out by saying what their values are. 144 00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:11,500 What are the things that they believe in? Constitution, rule of law, merit-based appointments, 145 00:14:11,500 --> 00:14:14,640 evidence-based policymaking, items like that. 146 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,760 Secondly, what did they want to achieve in the five years that they formed the coalition 147 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:25,320 government in the municipality? And it's basic things like water, basic services, upgrading 148 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:32,220 our facilities and so on. And then thirdly, how are they going to do it? And for example, 149 00:14:32,220 --> 00:14:40,320 one item in the how to do list is that 8% of municipal budgets will be spent on maintenance. 150 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,680 Now that may sound like a very sort of minor point, but in South Africa our big problem 151 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,920 is maintenance. And the fact that these two parties put that into their agreement and 152 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:54,160 it's part of how they're going to govern, I think is important. So we've got this agreement 153 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:59,560 encased in and by all accounts it is working reasonably well. 154 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:04,920 Now the national agreement which was signed by the ANC and the DA on the 14th of June 155 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:10,200 follow exactly the same pattern. They start with a preamble of where the country is and 156 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:17,520 I think we can all relate to those descriptions. Then they've got 10 foundational values and 157 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:24,280 that includes the constitution, rule of law, merit-based appointments, evidence-based policymaking 158 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:29,560 and so forth. And then thirdly, what they want to achieve. And there they talk about 159 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:36,120 nine priorities. So this agreement which has now been signed by smaller parties as well 160 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:42,400 is about 10 foundational values, nine priorities. So this coalition government has to work towards 161 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:47,280 that. And that's what they will do over the next five years. And I think that's an important 162 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:52,960 break with the chaos that we've seen in the past with local government coalitions. 163 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:58,760 I think it's important to note that you attached that as an addendum to the newsletter so people 164 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,080 can go to the website and find it. 165 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,600 Yes, they can. Absolutely. It's at the end, it's an addendum. It's quite interesting just 166 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:09,600 to look at those foundational values and priorities. And it gives you a feel that it's not just 167 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:14,640 airy-fairy stuff. It's very practical. It's very real. 168 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:21,720 But we all thought that those two parties, those two main parties were so far apart ideologically 169 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:30,880 that they could never sit around the same fire. And the rhetoric on both sides was fiery 170 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:32,880 to call it that. 171 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:39,200 Yeah, you're quite right. There's the perception, very widely spread and very widely held, that 172 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:45,040 the ANC and the DA are poles apart. As you know, I've never bought into that. I've always 173 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:49,440 thought that the commonalities between those two parties, they both broadly parties to 174 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:54,880 the middle. They both have their radicals. The ANC has got RDT people. Thanks to Mr. 175 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:59,960 Zuma, a lot of them have left, but they are still RDT people in the ANC. And the DA has 176 00:16:59,960 --> 00:17:06,280 got its radicals. But the big critical mass of both parties are sitting in the middle. 177 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,320 And I've always held that view about them. 178 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:17,160 So you don't think that the ANC and the MK-EFF combination are better bedfellows? 179 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:22,000 No, absolutely not. If you look at policy and you're concerned about policy, then there 180 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:30,000 are bigger differences between the ANC and MK-ANC-EFF than ANC-DA. Let me give you a 181 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:35,640 few examples. MK is very clear. They want to abolish the current constitution. They 182 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:41,160 want to go back to the old South Africa arrangement where parliament is the sovereign authority 183 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:45,680 in the state. Parliament makes a law, then that is the sovereign authority. Under our 184 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,800 constitution and Bill of Rights, the constitution is the sovereign authority and it's applied 185 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:54,560 by the constitutional court. It's two very different positions. And it's clear where 186 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:59,920 the ANC is coming from. It's equally clear where MK is coming from. They're very much, 187 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:05,200 much further apart than the ANC and the DA on that point. If you look at the EFF, you 188 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:11,160 find a similar thing. The EFF is in favour of all land in the country. All property must 189 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:16,120 belong to the state and the state will then dish out property, houses, buildings, farms 190 00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:22,680 and so on to whoever they deem appropriate. The ANC's position is exactly the opposite. 191 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:29,680 The ANC's position is that land is a, individual citizens have the right to own their own land 192 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:35,080 directly, i.e. they can have title deeds. And that's why you see a constant effort, 193 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:40,840 particularly at election time, where the ANC dishes out title deeds. Very different from 194 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:50,000 the EFF. So no, those two parties, MK and EFF, are both offspring of the ANC. That doesn't 195 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:55,280 mean they're the same as the ANC. COPE was an offspring of the ANC and look where that 196 00:18:55,280 --> 00:19:01,560 is. Bantu Hulamisa's UDM is an offspring. Look where that is policy-wise. No, I think 197 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:07,120 the reality is if you look beyond race and you say it's not just about where the parties 198 00:19:07,120 --> 00:19:13,400 are black, whether they come from a black constituency, if you actually look at policy, 199 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:17,280 those parties are further away from the ANC than what the DA is. 200 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:24,400 What do you make of talk about a national dialogue in the near future? 201 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:29,000 That is one of the elements covered in the agreement that all the parties to the coalition 202 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:33,100 agreement commit themselves to have such a dialogue. So I suspect we will see action 203 00:19:33,100 --> 00:19:38,680 over the next year. It's an idea that was launched by Talbot Mbeki just before the election. 204 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:43,360 And the idea is that you try and develop a national consensus between everybody, white, 205 00:19:43,360 --> 00:19:49,200 black, old, young, business, labor, employed, unemployed, small business, big business, 206 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:54,840 on where the country must go. It's really an issue of social capital, social cohesion, 207 00:19:54,840 --> 00:20:00,560 unity of purpose. Now, this is a noisy country. It's a noisy democracy. We've got many, many 208 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:06,640 old players, many of them punching way above their small weight. So whether you can pull 209 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:13,400 off such a national dialogue, we'll have to see. But that is future music. 210 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:19,520 So what do you see happening when it comes to appointment to who gets the jobs? 211 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:26,160 Well, the president must be in terms of the constitution section 87, I think, must be 212 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:31,240 must take office within five days of his election. He was elected on Friday night. So it's Saturday, 213 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:37,560 Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. So Wednesday the 19th, he must be inaugurated, assume office, 214 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:42,080 that'll take place at the Union building since Rwany. And then there's no stipulation on 215 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,920 by when he must appoint a cabinet, but obviously he must then appoint a cabinet. 216 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:46,920 And that's his prerogative. 217 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:52,400 That's his prerogative. There's no time stipulation in the constitution. But I think the expectation 218 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,420 and the political pressure is such that he will move. And there are some suggestions 219 00:20:56,420 --> 00:21:02,320 that he will do it by Friday the 21st. Let's see. Let's see. So that is as far as appointments 220 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,320 go. 221 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,800 Indications of who will be in that cabinet? 222 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,600 No, no, I have no idea. 223 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:10,600 So I can't 224 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,080 Not even party affiliations? 225 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:17,960 Well, party affiliations will certainly play a role. In fact, it is in the agreement that 226 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:23,240 although it's the president's prerogative to appoint, he has to give due consideration 227 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:29,200 to the seats that parties got in the national parliament. So it will follow more or less 228 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:34,600 the party composition. I think you can say that the president can appoint two ministers 229 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:39,840 and two deputy ministers from outside parliament. And we'll have to see whether he makes use 230 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,840 of that freedom. 231 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,680 Economic policy? Do you see any changes? 232 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:49,720 No, I don't see any changes. I think on economic policy, you can summarize it in one word. 233 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:59,600 The word is vulandlela. Vulandlela means opened away. And this was started way back by the 234 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:04,360 president and way back when Titumu Buwini was minister of finance. This unit, vulandlela, 235 00:22:04,360 --> 00:22:09,760 has become a permanent unit inside the presidency. And they've scored significant policy victories. 236 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:16,360 For example, spectrum release, which was delayed for 10 years under the previous president. 237 00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:20,760 Eventually they pulled that off and spectrum was released and we've got a new, as you know, 238 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:27,720 a new dispensation. Secondly, energy, electricity. Electricity has been turned on its head, driven 239 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,920 partly by the crisis with load shedding years. But you know, it's not good enough just to 240 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,680 have a crisis. You must also have a way out of the crisis. And that's what vulandlela 241 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:41,320 gave in electricity. In visa reform, we have seen recently announcements around making 242 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:46,800 visas easier. So, vulandlela scored a number of important victories. It's an important 243 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:58,120 institution, informal as it is. Now they focused on water, ports, railways, railway infrastructure. 244 00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:04,240 Those are the three main areas now where they're focusing. Now, the president has made it clear 245 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:10,600 in a letter which he published after the election, but before his election in that two week period, 246 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:17,000 he made it clear that it is absolutely imperative that this program of vulandlela carries on. 247 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:22,080 It's a program of deep structural reform that will change the country quite fundamentally. 248 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,760 And the DA has also expressed their support, not so? 249 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:31,800 The DA is absolutely on side. It fits into what they also would like to see. So yeah, 250 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,800 I think the two main parties are not going to jeopardize the implementation of railway 251 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,600 reform, ports reform, water reform, and so on. 252 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:45,760 And then in the last two weeks, there was a report from the Bureau for Economic Research 253 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,800 at Stellenbosch. Very interesting. 254 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,800 Yeah, very interesting. Also interesting politically in the fact that the president quoted it by 255 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:58,040 name in his letter and what the Bureau for Economic Research do. The researchers there 256 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:02,920 asked themselves the question, what needs to be done to change South Africa from a one 257 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:08,880 and a half percent growth economy? One percent, if it's going well, we grow at one and a half. 258 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:13,680 What can we do to change from a one and a half percent growth economy to a three and 259 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:18,620 a half percent growth economy? And the relevance of those numbers are simply that population 260 00:24:18,620 --> 00:24:23,000 growth is 1.8. If you grow at one and a half, you're getting poorer. You're making more 261 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:27,760 babies than what you're creating economy. On the other hand, if you grow at three and 262 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:33,200 a half percent, that's almost double 1.8 percent population growth. Now you're cooking with 263 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:39,080 gas. If you can carry on with three and a half percent versus 1.8 percent for five years 264 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,160 or 10 years, you really change the country. That's what South Africa did in the first 265 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:49,120 20 years of democracy. Economic growth far exceeded population growth and that gave you 266 00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:55,120 a substantial period of progress. So what the Bureau for Economic Research found in 267 00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:59,200 their work is that if you want to change from a one and a half percent to a three and a 268 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,680 half percent economy, you don't have to do anything new. You don't have to do anything 269 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:08,880 different. We don't need new policies. All we need is an energetic implementation of 270 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:14,200 the Voluntary Lela program. So that's where economic policy will be after the election. 271 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:20,680 It was also interesting to hear the references to the National Development Plan over the 272 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:25,880 last while, because the National Development Plan was first published in what, 2012? And 273 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:31,960 it seemed to have faded for a while, but it's now being brought. And as you say, the BER 274 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:36,580 now came to the conclusion, we don't need new plans and new policies. We must just do 275 00:25:36,580 --> 00:25:38,400 what we said we were going to do. 276 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,760 Yeah. I wouldn't put that much status on the National Development Plan. You're quite right. 277 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:49,000 It has been referred to. It has been referenced more. But I don't think, as you know from 278 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:53,360 the work that I've done at the National Planning Commission, I don't think there's a government-wide 279 00:25:53,360 --> 00:26:00,640 commitment and embracing of the National Development Plan. So I think Voluntary Lela is much more 280 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:05,860 concrete. It's much more measurable. It's much more definite. And that's where I'm going 281 00:26:05,860 --> 00:26:10,600 to focus my work over the next year or so. 282 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,920 What do you see happening as far as the budget's concerned? 283 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:19,440 On the budget, I think it's quite clear. I hope, I don't know, but I hope that the current 284 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:24,520 Minister of Finance, Eno Konugwana, will be reappointed. He's made it quite clear that 285 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:30,360 he's not going to step away from bringing down South Africa's debt to GDP load. In fact, 286 00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:34,320 in this current year's budget, the year in which we are now, which will end on 31 March 287 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:40,320 next year, he has penciled in an amount of more than $60 billion as a primary surplus. 288 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:46,040 Now, a primary surplus simply means government has more income than expenditure if you exclude 289 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:51,680 interest expense. And it's a vital tool that you need if you want to start breaking down 290 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:58,840 or moving down your debt to GDP ratio. We had a primary surplus in this past year for 291 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:04,640 the first time in 15 years. So the minister has done it. If you look back, he's penciled 292 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:10,720 it in for this year, and I think he will stick to that policy. And as the debt to GDP ratio 293 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:17,120 comes down, interest rate pressure will come down, and in general, things will improve. 294 00:27:17,120 --> 00:27:23,840 Now, currently, debt to GDP is sitting at about 74%, and the DAE has formally proposed 295 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:28,160 to the coalition government that they would like to see a level of 67%. So that's clear 296 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,960 where they're standing. So I think there's broad agreement, and that's the way the budget 297 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:33,960 will go. 298 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:38,680 What happens when there are disagreements, as surely there will be? 299 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:46,080 Then there are mechanisms written into that agreement between the DAE and the ANC, well, 300 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:53,240 all parties to the government of national unity, on what must be done to solve disagreements. 301 00:27:53,240 --> 00:28:01,560 There's a process of talking, and then eventually, the final step is sufficient consensus, and 302 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:07,600 sufficient consensus is defined as 60% of 60% support in parliament. Now, of course, 303 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:16,120 the two big parties, DA and ANC, make 60%. So that's the way you will move forward. And 304 00:28:16,120 --> 00:28:22,080 I think, Ruda, what we have to accept, we must now get out of the mindset of having 305 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:27,840 a majority party who can decide alone, and that's the end of the story. But we must also 306 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:32,600 accept that if you're the minority party in a coalition, that doesn't mean you can dictate 307 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:39,960 what must happen. Everybody will have to compromise. And that's when I think one of the foundational 308 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:46,880 values of evidence-based policymaking is an important point, because when you then have 309 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:52,280 disagreements, you can say, right, let's get in the experts, let's get in the hard data, 310 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:56,880 and see what should shape the decision that we have to make. 311 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:01,760 I'm quite sure the one thing that South Africans are good at, we make a hell of a noise, but 312 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:07,160 once we're in the room, we actually compromise. We've got an ability to make deals. That's 313 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:11,840 how the new South Africa was built. So I'm not too worried about that. There are processes, 314 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,120 you work through the processes, you overcome your differences. 315 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,280 Doesn't the phrase sufficient consensus come from 94? 316 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:23,440 Exactly, exactly. And now the phrase is back. It gave us the constitution, it gave us the 317 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,920 democracy, and it will play its role now as well in the coalition government. 318 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:34,280 Might we see movement in local governments before the next local government election, 319 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,000 which is what, 2026? 320 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:41,960 Oh, absolutely. You'll see that before this podcast goes out. We've already seen it. The 321 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:48,800 ANC has recalled that rather suboptimal mayor that was in Durban, he's been kicked upstairs 322 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:53,920 to the National Council of Provinces. You can go sit there and it's Hillary. He's been removed. 323 00:29:53,920 --> 00:30:01,920 The ANC mayor of Ekorilei has also fired the EFF council responsible for finance. He was 324 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:07,440 only appointed a few weeks ago when there was a temporary coalition agreement. 325 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:08,440 Just for the weekend, no? 326 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:14,400 Yeah, it was more or less two weekends. So, and I think you're going to see them much 327 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:19,040 more. I think what's going to happen in the next couple of weeks is that coalition governments 328 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:25,240 across the country, where the ANC and the DA are not working together, but they are 329 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:30,200 in partnership of all kinds of funny small parties, that will be cleared up. You will 330 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:35,760 get coalition agreements between the people who serve in the government of national unity. 331 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:41,200 That means it'll affect Nelson Mandela Bay, it'll affect Johannesburg, it'll affect Ekorilei, 332 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:47,560 it'll affect Twane, probably Tehkwini as well. A number of municipalities, I think, will 333 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:53,520 get onto a new trajectory and that should make a difference, at least in some local 334 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:54,520 governments. 335 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,240 So, in summary, so what? 336 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:02,960 I think, first of all, it is quite a thing that happened, that the ANC lost the majority 337 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:08,080 that they had for 30 years, that they accepted it and that they moved to a new dispensation, 338 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:14,040 a new governance dispensation within two weeks. I think that's a phenomenal performance. As 339 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,360 I've said, it didn't even happen in America in 2020. We will see what happens this year 340 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:23,920 in America, but for the South Africans, it's a point of pride and something we can feel 341 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:29,280 very good about. On matters economic, it is quite clear that the middle has been strengthened 342 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:36,480 considerably. This pseudo warfare, this phony war that we had between the DA and the ANC, 343 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:41,360 which I never bought into, as I've said, that can now be set aside and you can, like 344 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,640 adults, talk about what needs to be done to grow the economy. 345 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:52,880 The third, so what, is it would be wrong to say that the DA will stop transformation in 346 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:57,680 the country. That is the general accusation which is against the DA. But if you look at 347 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:02,920 the foundational principles which were signed by the DA, those foundational principles are 348 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:07,320 very clear that we have a particular legacy in this country, that we have to overcome 349 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:13,600 that legacy and that that requires specific proactive measures. That's also, by the way, 350 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:17,680 not just in this national agreement, it is also in the agreement which the DA signed 351 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:22,560 to the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal a year ago in respect of local government. So it's not a 352 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:29,840 new idea. I don't see any stop to the process of making the economy more inclusive to black 353 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:36,000 people taking steps necessary to overcome our past. And I think those two things, much 354 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:42,440 higher economic growth, much more inclusion, that will dominate for the next five years. 355 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:47,640 And then I think the big so what is that we've seen a substantial move to the middle. Yes, 356 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:58,080 MK did quite well and kudos to them, but Julius Malema was cut down and he moved from an 11% 357 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:05,720 party to a 9.5% party. He must be terribly disappointed. He's been repudiated clearly 358 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:11,000 by the country. MK did only did well in KZN. I think they've got a little bit of support 359 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:18,400 in Mpumalanga and they've got one member of parliament in the free state. So for me, the 360 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:23,280 majority of people in this country actually do not want radicalism. They don't want right 361 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:29,360 wing radicalism and they don't want RET radicalism. So there's a coming together in the middle, 362 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:36,200 which I think is absolutely great. And your last point is there's hope for local governments, 363 00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:41,400 which makes me very happy. Yeah, I think we will see a reorganization of local government, 364 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:46,640 a political reorganization, whether that then feeds through quickly into better bureaucratic 365 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:52,560 performance, better service delivery that we will have to see. But at least as a businessman 366 00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:57,720 has remarked in this case of Johannesburg, fix the politics and then you can start fixing 367 00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:06,160 the city. And at least now we're busy fixing the politics. So we may see improvement in 368 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:11,400 the city service delivery as well. Thank you very much to the listeners. Thank you for 369 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:17,440 your time, for your attention. Enjoy this breath of fresh air that is blowing through 370 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:24,720 the country and stay warm. Indeed. Thank you very much. Thank you for listening to the 371 00:34:24,720 --> 00:34:30,040 So What podcast. If you enjoy this content, please don't forget to leave a review and 372 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:35,760 a rating and please consider subscribing so you don't miss any future episodes. Also 373 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:47,520 tell your friends. Remember you can find a written version of all JP's content at JPLandman.co.za