1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:11,240 Hello and welcome to the So What podcast in which political economic analyst JP Landman 2 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:16,400 discusses the issues uppermost in the minds of South Africans. You can find a written 3 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:29,040 version of this content on JP's website jplandman.co.za. I am Ruda Landman and I am your host. 4 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:35,720 This episode goes with JP's newsletter dated the 26th of February 2024 and it is about 5 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:43,960 the 2024 elections. The date has been announced for the 29th of May and off we go as you say 6 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:51,080 in your newsletter off to the races. JP we seem to have dozens of political parties and 7 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:57,800 they are a lot more as we go along. How many are actually presented in parliament at the 8 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:02,920 moment represented and what is their support base like? 9 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:08,560 Yeah it is a very interesting point. We have 14 political parties currently in parliament, 10 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:15,840 the parliament that was elected five years ago in 2019 but really three of them the ANC, 11 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:22,200 the DA and the EFF between them have got 89% of the vote or 89% of the parliament. The 12 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:27,780 other 11 parties share the remaining 11%. So it is really a case of three big dogs and 13 00:01:27,780 --> 00:01:30,960 a lot of small dogs. 14 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:36,720 And since those elections we have had local elections. Did things shift? 15 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:44,500 Yes they did shift two and a half years later in 2021 and in those elections the ANC suffered 16 00:01:44,500 --> 00:01:54,240 quite a huge loss. They went from 57% of the vote which they got in 29 down to about 40-45% 17 00:01:54,240 --> 00:02:00,960 in 2021. Now the interesting thing is that drop in vote did not go to the other two big 18 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:07,880 parties the DA and EFF. It went to a host of smaller parties. So the current lie of 19 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:13,160 the land is that yes we have got three big parties. They have way more than 80% of the 20 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:19,000 vote between them. We have got a host of smaller parties but it looks as if the smaller parties 21 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:25,240 are gaining at the expense of the ANC and probably also at the expense of the other 22 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:26,960 bigger parties. 23 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:34,440 And since then, so that was 2021, so it is three years, is the information from polls 24 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,520 or something that we can gauge the support from? 25 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:43,880 Yes, look you are quite right one cannot compare local government election results with national 26 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:49,080 government election results but that is the best we have got and we use that to determine 27 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:54,880 the lie of the land. What we have in addition to those election results we now have a number 28 00:02:54,880 --> 00:03:00,360 of polls that have been conducted over the last 24 months. There are in total about 11 29 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:06,000 of them and so what I have done is to average the results of those polls for the different 30 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:11,360 political parties and then you get a certain reading and then what I have done also is 31 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:16,580 to take away the highest and the lowest poll for each political party and average the balance 32 00:03:16,580 --> 00:03:21,640 and then you get a slightly different reading but by and large the same and that reading 33 00:03:21,640 --> 00:03:33,680 is 45% for the ANC, 23% for the DA, 13% for the EFF, about 5% for the IFP and about 4.6%, 34 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:41,320 4.5% for Action SA. So you can see essentially the ANC is not making up what they look like 35 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:47,640 and they lost in 2021 but again that vote is not really going to the other two big parties. 36 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:53,040 It is mainly going to the EFF, to the IFP and Action SA and no doubt a lot of the vote 37 00:03:53,040 --> 00:04:00,120 will also go to a host of other smaller parties. What about former president Zuma's MK party? 38 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:06,480 There was one poll on that party which was done in January, results released in February. 39 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:15,360 They have given quite a high support to the MK party in KwaZulu-Natal, 24%, which is a 40 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:16,680 high number. Provincially. 41 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:25,840 Provincially, yes, for KZN. In two by-elections that we have had in KZN since the party was 42 00:04:25,840 --> 00:04:31,360 formed they have actually done quite well. They have taken votes from the ANC, they have 43 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:36,800 taken votes from even the IFP but it looks as if they have taken most of the votes from 44 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:43,320 the EFF. So that will be an interesting dynamic, MK versus the EFF. You know I suppose it is 45 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:50,320 a case of if you want to go to somebody you go to the one who is most authentic and Mr. 46 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:55,520 Zuma is probably a more authentic figure of radical economic transformation than Julius 47 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,520 Malema. But let's see how the numbers play out. 48 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:04,640 What about all the other new parties that were in the headlines over the last three 49 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:05,640 months or so? 50 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:11,400 There are a number of, let's call them media headline parties. There is Rise Mzansi, 51 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:18,520 from Songezo Zibi, there is BOSA, Build One South Africa, Mmusi Maimane, previous 52 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:25,780 leader of the DA. There is Change Starts Now, CSN, Roger Jardim and then of course also 53 00:05:25,780 --> 00:05:30,040 Mr. Zuma's party. Those are the main ones. There are also a lot of other parties. Ace 54 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:38,040 Magashule has got a party ACT, African Congress of Transformation. I suspect he will do quite 55 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:43,400 well in the Northern Free State. But really these smaller parties are, you know, they 56 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:47,240 are small fish, they are new kids on the block. One will have to see to what extent they can 57 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,220 get traction with the electorate. 58 00:05:49,220 --> 00:05:54,440 But they can all register. So what will this mean for me as an individual voter on the 59 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,160 day of voting? 60 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:03,320 Well, it may mean that you won't get a ballot paper, but you will get a little ballot book. 61 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:08,760 Because as you rightly say, there will be a host of parties. What is also new this year 62 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:14,560 is that for the first time, independence can stand for election. So you will get three 63 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:20,360 ballot papers. You will get one for the national government as in the past. This year the list 64 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,100 will probably be much longer than what it was in the past. You will get a second ballot 65 00:06:24,100 --> 00:06:29,160 paper for provincial government and then you will get a third ballot paper for independence. 66 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,040 And you have to wade your way through all three of them. 67 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,880 And do we have to vote on each one or not? 68 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:42,000 No, no. You can vote on one or two or all three or you can spoil your paper. It's a 69 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,600 free option you can do as you wish. 70 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:51,400 What do you think about the multi-party charter people saying there will be a new government? 71 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:59,560 I think it's a misrepresentation. The multi-party charter cannot get more than about 35 to 40 72 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:05,120 percent of the vote. Now, even if they get 40 percent, that's far away from 50 plus one. 73 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:10,000 So I think that is a gross misrepresentation. Okay, you know, it is election season, it's 74 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:14,600 the least season, people make promises and so on. One must allow for that. But I can't 75 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:21,360 see in that sense a new government in the sense that there's a group of opposition parties 76 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,280 that get more than 50 percent of the vote and can replace the ANC. I just don't see 77 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:33,840 that. It's not in the realm of realpolitik. Can you see the EFF and the DA and the Freedom 78 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:39,880 Front plus working together with MK to be anti-ANC? You know, it's simply a nonsense 79 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:48,240 construct. It'll also be a frightfully unstable coalition. So no, I don't think that'll happen 80 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:53,280 and it certainly won't be good for the country. What you will find is that ANC will still 81 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:58,760 be the largest political party. It will lead a coalition. It will be the responsibility 82 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:04,120 of the ANC to invite other parties to join them in a coalition government if they don't 83 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:09,000 get to 50 percent. And as such, yes, there will be other people in government, but the 84 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:14,300 ANC will still lead that government and therefore to talk about a whole new government is simply 85 00:08:14,300 --> 00:08:20,240 in my view a misrepresentation. What about the provinces? In the provinces it may play 86 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:26,440 out differently, particularly in two provinces, kwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. The ANC is not 87 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:32,520 going to get 50 percent in Gauteng. They will probably get somewhere between 35 and 40, 88 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:38,120 maybe just over 40. Now that'll leave them a good 10 percent short of the 50 plus one 89 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:43,160 needed to govern the province. So the big question is then with whom will they make 90 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:51,920 a coalition deal? Just this week we've had a report from the National Executive Committee 91 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:58,200 of the ANC looking at the issue of coalitions, making it fairly clear that they're not going 92 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:04,680 to do a coalition with the EFF, not even in Gauteng. Panja Zalusufi, the Premier of Gauteng 93 00:09:04,680 --> 00:09:15,720 and leader of the ANC in Gauteng, has referred to the EFF as unreliable partners. But they 94 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:21,960 are in a partnership coalition in Johannesburg at the moment. Well, it's an Ekurhuleni. 95 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:26,800 It's a kind of an arrangement and I suspect it won't last. If you look at these comments 96 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:33,560 coming through, then you may even find that those municipal coalitions do not survive. 97 00:09:33,560 --> 00:09:39,640 Panyaza Lesufi is probably one of the more enthusiastic ANC members when it comes to a coalition with 98 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:46,600 the EFF. Absolutely. Likewise, the leadership of the ANC down in kwaZulu-Natal are also 99 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:52,820 sympathetic to the EFF, but they have also made it quite clear that they want to have 100 00:09:52,820 --> 00:09:57,840 stable coalitions and they don't see that with either the MK or EFF. So the question 101 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:04,400 is, with whom will they go? I've written last year in August and earlier in the year, 102 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:11,240 that in May, almost a year ago, that I hope for a DAA-ANC coalition. But whether that 103 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:20,000 happens, we'll have to see. We as a country have had really bad experiences with coalition 104 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:26,900 governments that just don't work. Where did those coalitions go wrong and how can it be 105 00:10:26,900 --> 00:10:30,320 made better? I think they went wrong on the very simple 106 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:38,120 principles that the focus of the coalition governments in municipalities and metros, 107 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:45,240 the focus was on who, not on how. Who is getting a job? Who will be the mayor? Who will be 108 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:50,200 the speaker? Who will be the chairperson of committees and so on? It's about who. You 109 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:56,060 just have to shuffle those letters around and get to how. How are you going to govern? 110 00:10:56,060 --> 00:11:00,440 How are you going to implement your election manifesto? That is where we went wrong. We 111 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:07,720 focused on who and not on how. We don't have that culture of negotiating agreements on 112 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:13,520 how coalitions were governed, but that may be changing. And I say that because in kwaZulu- 113 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:20,360 Natal, an agreement was signed, agreed and signed between the IFP and the DA on how they're 114 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:25,780 going to manage the local governments where they are in control. Currently, they control 115 00:11:25,780 --> 00:11:32,840 between them 13 councils in the kwaZulu-Natal province, and it seems to be going reasonably 116 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,680 well. Now, what is that agreement? It's a nine-page 117 00:11:35,680 --> 00:11:40,720 agreement. It sets out what their values are. It starts with common values. It then has 118 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:47,360 common ideals. It then focuses on objectives that they want to achieve in that local government 119 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:53,280 in the term of office that is left. And lastly, how they're going to do it, practical steps. 120 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:59,000 For example, one clause in the nine-page agreement is that the municipalities which they run, 121 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:04,720 they will spend 8% of the municipal budget on maintenance. Now, it may sound like a very 122 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:11,320 minor point, but we know about maintenance and infrastructure in particularly municipalities. 123 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,880 So that kind of focus is a good thing. So it may be that we're now starting in South 124 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:22,540 Africa with a culture of negotiating a coalition agreement focusing on the how, not the who. 125 00:12:22,540 --> 00:12:26,600 And this is of course the way it works in Europe. If you take a country like Germany, 126 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,040 they have had coalition governments for a very, very long time. In the last election, 127 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:35,120 it took three months between the election date and the date that the new government 128 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:41,080 took office. Why? They needed three months to negotiate a coalition agreement. The English 129 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:47,000 translation is about 127 pages. Now, we don't have to go as far as the Germans, you know, 130 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:51,780 the detail and so on. But even the Dutch, the last Dutch coalition government had a 131 00:12:51,780 --> 00:12:57,760 coalition agreement of 57 pages, the English translation thereof. So there is definitely 132 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:04,160 a need in South Africa to develop coalition agreements that focuses on or that focus on 133 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:10,000 the how and not on the who. And if we can do that after the 2024 election where it is 134 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:16,120 necessary, that'll be a major step forward. But our constitution puts us in a bit of a 135 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:22,640 bind because it says, what, 14 days after the election? Yeah, absolutely. It's a very 136 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:27,680 strong point. The coalition stipulates that a new parliament, the new parliament, which 137 00:13:27,680 --> 00:13:33,400 was just elected in the election, must meet within 14 days to elect a new president. From 138 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,200 the date of the election? From the date that the election is certified. Now, the election 139 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:43,100 is on Wednesday. It's normally certified by Saturday evening. So 14 days later, parliament 140 00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:50,160 must meet and elect a new president. And so if there's one party that's got 50% plus one 141 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:54,360 of the vote, well, fine, then there's no problem. That party's candidate will become president. 142 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:58,960 If that isn't the case, then your negotiation will have to be, your first round will have 143 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:06,040 to be about who, which candidate will be supported. That'll be your first round of negotiation. 144 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:10,760 And then once you've got a president, then he will have to extend it into a wider agreement 145 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:17,560 about how that government will rule. And in the provinces, is it the same? In provinces 146 00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:24,720 it's the same. They also have to meet and elect a premier and get the show on the road. 147 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:30,280 There's a lot of talk of policy uncertainty because there are so many question marks about 148 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:37,480 how these elections will play out. Yeah, that's a standard item. Every time there's an election, 149 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:44,440 the chattering glasses go into overdrive with policy uncertainty. The budget will be populist. 150 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:49,560 There will be a splurge of expenditure and so on and so forth. These are hardy perennials. 151 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:54,800 They always come back, except it never happens in real life. The splurges in spending is 152 00:14:54,800 --> 00:15:01,520 not during election times. It's between elections, if you look at our record in that regard. 153 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:07,800 And we had a budget at the end of February. What did that indicate? 154 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:14,560 Well, absolutely. You've seen the media coverage. It's a very conservative budget. It's holding 155 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:19,520 the line. It is heavily criticized from the left for not spending more money on social 156 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:29,080 grants. The social grant increases below inflation. The R350 COVID grant has not been increased. 157 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:37,080 So there was absolutely no splurge in spending. That did not happen. It's a matter of factual 158 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:43,380 observation that it didn't happen. As a policy uncertainty in general, what are now the most 159 00:15:43,380 --> 00:15:48,360 important policies for this country? Well, it's macroeconomic policy. That was confirmed 160 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:56,720 by the budget. And then it is fixing electricity, it's fixing logistics, railways and ports, 161 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:01,900 and it's fixing water. And in all three of those respects, the state of the nation speech 162 00:16:01,900 --> 00:16:07,280 early in February and the budget speech towards the end of February all made the same point, 163 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:14,360 which is already in the public domain, that in all these spheres of where we have government 164 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:19,920 monopolies like in energy, like in ports, like in railways, the private sector will 165 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:27,480 be allowed into those sectors. So we're moving away from the model of a state-owned monopoly 166 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:32,720 which run those network industries to a model where there will be state company, yes, like 167 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:38,880 Transnet, like Eskom, but next to it, there will be private companies rendering a service 168 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:43,780 in those industries, making capital investments, bringing management and so on. It's quite 169 00:16:43,780 --> 00:16:50,020 a profound change for South Africa. We have a tradition in this country which goes back 170 00:16:50,020 --> 00:16:56,760 150 years, where the state runs those kinds of industries. They're called the network 171 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,880 industries. Now we're moving away from the state running them to the private sector coming 172 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:06,900 in to help. It's a big change and it's happening. And you don't see that changing? There's no 173 00:17:06,900 --> 00:17:12,300 uncertainty around that? No, I don't see that changing. Absolutely not. And even if a coalition 174 00:17:12,300 --> 00:17:18,680 government is formed, it won't change that. What I do see and that we must be aware of, 175 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:25,080 it takes government a long time to do things. They are not quick. You look at the deadlines 176 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:30,840 that they set themselves by when they want to do things, they normally miss those deadlines. 177 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:37,380 I think people simply underestimate how difficult it is to get things through the government 178 00:17:37,380 --> 00:17:42,520 processes. There are a variety of reasons for that, but that's the reality. It takes 179 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:48,120 time. And so I think there's a problem with the speed of implementation, but not with 180 00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:54,240 the certainty of what is being implemented. That sounds like the first of your so what's 181 00:17:54,240 --> 00:18:01,800 actually at the end of your newsletter. But the other major point is no new government. 182 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:06,680 No, I don't think I think the idea of a new government is really, as I've said, a misrepresentation. 183 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:12,840 It's not going to happen. I think we can, even if we accept that the ANC will drop below 184 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:19,320 50 at the national level and will not be able to rule on their own, govern on their own, 185 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,480 they will still be the largest party. They will actually form the coalition. They will 186 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:28,840 invite other people to come in. That will be the, that doesn't look to me like a new 187 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:34,680 government. It very much looks like a continuation of a little bit of new blood coming in from 188 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,680 opposition parties if they form part of a coalition. 189 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:43,600 And the future of the big three in general, do you see more fragmentation? 190 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:50,080 Yeah, I think we already see that in the polls and we also see it in by-election results 191 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:56,000 that the smaller parties are all eating away from the three big ones. So it's in some, 192 00:18:56,000 --> 00:19:01,280 maybe they don't reduce the support level. For example, the EFF in the polls currently 193 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:07,960 is getting about 13%. They used to be 11. So they're not losing support, but they certainly, 194 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:13,320 there's a ceiling on how much support they seem to be getting. So yes, I think that fragmentation 195 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:20,940 will continue. We will see the three big parties will not grow much. In total, they'll be less. 196 00:19:20,940 --> 00:19:26,680 And I think we will see a host of smaller parties each coming in with one or two seats, 197 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:32,000 which will of course give us a parliament with more parties and will complicate the 198 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,760 political scene. 199 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:42,040 But you say that the major question in this election is about the provinces. 200 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:47,000 Yes, I think that's where the action will be, particularly KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng 201 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:54,660 in both those provinces. It is very unlikely that the ANC will get to 50%. It is more likely 202 00:19:54,660 --> 00:20:01,080 that the multi-party charter people could get to 50%, particularly in Gauteng. It's 203 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:07,040 not a prediction. I'm just saying, you know, there's a likelihood. So yeah, those are the 204 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:14,400 two provinces to watch. And if the ANC doesn't get to 50 and the opposition parties don't 205 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:20,240 get to 50, then the question is who will form a coalition with whom? And overall, I think 206 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:26,480 the EFF is not going to be the coalition partner. But let's see how it plays out. 207 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:30,760 Thank you very much. We can only wish all our listeners happy voting. 208 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,480 Absolutely. Happy voting. 209 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:39,600 Thank you for listening to the So What podcast. If you enjoy this content, please don't forget 210 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:44,520 to leave a review and a rating and please consider subscribing so you don't miss any 211 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:50,640 future episodes. Also, tell your friends. Remember, you can find a written version of all JP's 212 00:20:50,640 --> 00:21:18,000 content at jplandman.co.za.