1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:11,240 Hello and welcome to the So What podcast, in which political economic analyst JP Landman 2 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:16,400 discusses the issues uppermost in the minds of South Africans. You can find a written 3 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:28,740 version of this content on JP's website, jplandman.co.za. I am Ruda Landman and I am your host. 4 00:00:28,740 --> 00:00:33,560 These first few recordings were done at our dining room table, but we will soon be moving 5 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:42,200 into a studio. Hello and as always a very warm welcome to this conversation which accompanies 6 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:51,040 JP's latest newsletter. This one is dated the 14th August 2023 and it's titled, Coalitions: 7 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:57,040 Important Shifts. JP, you wrote about the coalitions for the first time in May, but 8 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:04,160 you say that three developments have happened since then. Tell me about that. Yes, absolutely. 9 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:11,240 Since May, three important developments or shifts. The first is that on the 11th of July, 10 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:17,560 the Incartum Freedom Party and the DA signed an agreement to cooperate in coalitions at 11 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:23,440 the local government level in the province of kwaZulu Natal. It's a unique agreement 12 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:29,200 in the sense that it's fairly detailed. It spells out 13 commitments that the parties 13 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:36,120 make and 15 priorities that they set for those municipalities where they will come into power. 14 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:41,760 The 13 commitments are very interesting. There's the normal stuff of commitment to the rule 15 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:49,980 of law and so on, but they're also interesting new noises or new approaches. For example, 16 00:01:49,980 --> 00:01:56,680 they say that there will be a strict separation of party and state. All appointments will 17 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:02,320 be merit based. Then the normal thing which everybody says nowadays, corruption will be 18 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:07,360 eradicated and opposed and there will be a non-negotiable commitment to the rule of law 19 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:14,280 and constitutionalism. I think it is important in coalition politics that you set out what 20 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:19,520 the values are in which you base your coalition and that you have to agree on those values. 21 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:24,320 That they've done in their agreement. But then they go a step further beyond their commitments 22 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:29,380 and they list 15 priority areas where they will work in municipalities where they capture 23 00:02:29,380 --> 00:02:35,800 the power. Now again, there are obvious things like water, waste management, sewage, public 24 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:42,120 transport and so on, but they're also more unusual items. For example, there's a very 25 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:50,600 clear commitment to spend 8% of the value of municipal assets on maintenance. Now this 26 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:55,640 is breaking new ground as far as local government levels go. We all know that maintenance is 27 00:02:55,640 --> 00:02:59,840 a huge problem and this kind of commitment is essentially the thing that addresses that 28 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:07,500 deficit. There's also a clear commitment to review organograms of all municipalities, 29 00:03:07,500 --> 00:03:14,280 to review staff complements and reviewing salary scales downwards before filling vacant 30 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:18,880 posts. So that is addressing another big problem that we have with local government and that 31 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:23,960 is that salaries and wages just gobble up all the available money. So the fact that 32 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:30,280 the DAA and IFP came to these agreements in respect of course to the Natal, I think is 33 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:37,880 quite an important step. Basically it meets the test that we articulated in May. What 34 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:44,240 we have to do in coalition politics in South Africa is to focus not on who will govern 35 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:50,040 but how we will govern. Those letters need to be switched around. This agreement between 36 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:57,080 the IFP and the DA takes us very far on the road to how government will take place instead 37 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:05,160 of who. When or how will this be put into practice? Well currently the IFP and DA are 38 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:12,800 controlling 13 local governments in KwaZulu-Natal. So it has already started. The second development 39 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:16,800 that you refer to? The second development happened at the end of July, the last weekend 40 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:22,480 in July, when the ANC Veterans League had the national conference which was attended 41 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:29,440 by some 460 delegates from branches from all nine provinces. So the Veterans League have 42 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:36,200 really in the last while established themselves by setting up branches. Now to be a veteran 43 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:41,880 of ANC you must be over 60 years of age and you must have served the organization for 44 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:48,560 40 years uninterruptedly. So it's quite a test. They had a national conference, the 45 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:54,400 president went there, he called the Veterans League the loud start of the ANC, but what 46 00:04:54,400 --> 00:05:00,960 is very important is that they stated that a coalition between ANC and EFF is an unethical 47 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:07,320 coalition. Now those are very strong words to use and for a senior body like that to 48 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:14,800 say that explicitly and that unambiguously I think was also quite a strong development. 49 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:19,360 Since we've written this note in the last week, Fekili Mbalula, the secretary general 50 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:25,320 of the ANC was asked about this decision by the Veterans League conference and what was 51 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:31,480 very interesting is he handled it very diplomatically, something for which he is not known. And he 52 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,720 just said you know it's the view of the Veterans League and the views of all parts of the ANC 53 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:40,920 will be taken into consideration, but he did not denounce the statement by the Veterans 54 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:47,560 League that a coalition between ANC and EFF is unethical. So clearly it tells you that 55 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:53,680 there's movement, there's fluidity. The third development took place on the first 56 00:05:53,680 --> 00:06:00,760 weekend in August, I think it was 4 and 5 August, when deputy president Po Maschettile 57 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:07,320 convened a conference on coalitions on the campus of the University of the Western Cape. 58 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:13,120 And there a very interesting thing happened, again Fekili Mbalula made a speech and he 59 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:21,800 left, he not only left the door open, he specifically said that the ANC could go into a grand coalition 60 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:27,320 with the DA on local government level. He emphasized that afterwards in meetings with 61 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:32,080 journalists that he was talking about local government, not about national government, 62 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:37,960 that fact remains the door has been opened. So if you put all these developments together 63 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:43,800 that has taken place in July and August, then I think we have seen considerable movement 64 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:50,320 in the body politic towards what I called in May a grand coalition of the ANC and the 65 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,000 DA. At the UWC meeting it was also quite clear 66 00:06:54,000 --> 00:07:02,440 that the largest parties agree on a minimum threshold before a party can be represented 67 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:07,240 in local provincial national government. Do you see that happening? 68 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:13,360 Yes, you're quite right, there was clearly agreement between the two biggest parties 69 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:17,720 and of course the civilist opposition from all the smaller parties. I think that's very 70 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:24,040 predictable. Now nobody, neither the ANC nor the DA put any numbers on the table at the 71 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:28,920 Western Co-conference, but earlier in the year the ANC signaled that they would be in 72 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:36,000 favor of a 1% threshold. The DA signaled that they would be in favor of a 3% threshold. 73 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:41,680 So the number will, if it happens, it will land somewhere between 1 and possibly 2%, 74 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:48,720 right about. Now a 1% threshold would have an interesting impact. It will eliminate 8 75 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:54,960 of the 14 parties that we currently have in parliament, more than half. It will eliminate 76 00:07:54,960 --> 00:08:00,920 in the Johannesburg metro 9 of the 18 parties currently sitting in the metro. In Swaranday 77 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:08,520 it will eliminate a whopping 10 of 15 parties and in Elstom and Delabay 5 of 13 parties. 78 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:14,960 So you can clearly see small parties representing a really small minority of the voters are 79 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:19,680 really influential because there's so many of them and that is what the reaction is against, 80 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,440 also from the public and that is what the DA and ANC are trying to address. Now of course 81 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:30,040 the ANC and the DA being the two biggest parties will benefit from such an arrangement and 82 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:35,040 they argue that it will enhance stability, which it probably will, and it will reduce 83 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:41,600 horse trading, which it probably will. The smaller parties again argue that it is inherently 84 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:47,000 undemocratic and you're doing something which is not in line with the wishes of the voters 85 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:51,960 and you deprive the voters of choice and they're also correct. So there are strong arguments 86 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:58,740 on both sides of this threshold decision. Now it's quite interesting to see what's 87 00:08:58,740 --> 00:09:06,480 happening elsewhere. Internationally thresholds vary between 0.67, two thirds of 1% in the 88 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:14,000 Netherlands to as high as 6% in Moldova. The most common threshold is 5% and one finds 89 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:19,600 that in countries like Germany, New Zealand, Poland and Hungary. Denmark has a threshold 90 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:26,640 of 2% while the threshold in Sweden and Norway are sitting at 4%. So you're talking old 91 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:32,800 established democracies here. Scandinavian countries are hardly countries with immature 92 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:40,080 democracies and they have 2%, 4% and 5% thresholds. So there is an international precedent for 93 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:46,400 this. However, the question that one must ask is if you apply the 1% threshold in South 94 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:52,960 Africa, parties like the African Christian Democratic Party and Al Jomar will be eliminated 95 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:58,800 from parliament. Do you really want to force these people to go extra parliamentary? I 96 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:03,920 mean that's what the consequence of a 1% threshold decision would be. Do you think that would 97 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:10,800 happen or would their voters be absorbed in the bigger parties? They have people who support 98 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:16,080 them. If their voters do not want to vote for other parties, then they are still there, 99 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:22,440 they're still around. But by denying them access to the legislature or to the town council, 100 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:28,200 you actually force them to go outside politics. And I don't think that's a wise idea. Can 101 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:35,320 it happen in time for the 2024 election? Probably not. No, definitely not. We've got, it's now 102 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:40,560 August, the election will probably be in May. If it is postponed for three months, that'll 103 00:10:40,560 --> 00:10:45,720 take it to August, 12 months from now. It'll be very hard to get legislation through parliament 104 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:51,920 in 12 months. Parliament just doesn't move that quickly. So no, I don't think it'll happen. 105 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:56,480 In any case, even if it does happen, the legislation will be challenged in the constitutional court. 106 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,640 I mean, there's no doubt about that. Does our constitution say anything about this? 107 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:07,320 Yes, it does. In section 46 of the constitution, it says that an electoral system must in general 108 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:13,800 result in proportional representation. Now, what does in general mean? Is 1% does that 109 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:20,960 satisfy the in general requirement or 3% does it satisfy that requirement? That is something 110 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:25,000 on which the constitutional court will have to pronounce. And obviously they'll have to 111 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:32,480 consider it carefully. So no, I think the parliamentary agenda, the parliamentary timetable, 112 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:37,880 as well as constitutional challenges can make us fairly certain that it will not happen, 113 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:46,040 that there will not be legislation on the statute before next year's parliamentary elections. 114 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:53,520 You published this note on the 14th of August, but because of circumstance, we are only recording 115 00:11:53,520 --> 00:12:00,440 this conversation on the 21st. The moonshot backed convention has now happened. Thoughts? 116 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:07,560 Yeah, it happened on 16 and 17 of August. For the parties participating, it was a huge 117 00:12:07,560 --> 00:12:13,800 success. They proclaimed it as such. Seven parties. Seven parties in total. From my point 118 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:19,080 of view, I think there were some encouraging signs. The parties accepted the principle 119 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:24,080 that your representation in the coalition government is based on the votes that you 120 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:29,400 got. So there's a clear relationship. If you got 60% of the votes, then you will have 121 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:34,320 60% of the government. You got 30% of the vote, you'll get 30% of the government. Until 122 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:41,240 now, there was a lot of toing and froing about that. So having developed a consensus about 123 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:49,400 that, I think is quite a good thing. The fundamental problem remains how these seven parties will 124 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:55,800 get to 50% plus one. That is really the issue. If you take the current parliament, which 125 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:01,840 I think one must accept is no longer representative, but if you take the current parliament, their 126 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:08,040 total vote come to less than 30% of those seven parties. Only three of those seven parties 127 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,440 are sitting in parliament. The other four are outside parliament. So they must still 128 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:16,360 prove that they can actually get votes. We tend to forget that. We focus on the seven 129 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:22,400 and not on the three that have already made it into parliament. But I think it's fair 130 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:28,280 to say that ANC will get less votes than what they got in the present parliament. They currently 131 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:33,920 in the present parliament have 57.5% of the vote. Their share will probably drop below 132 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:42,720 57.5%. So will the other parties then pick that up? Where will it go? I can't see the 133 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:49,000 current seven parties going much higher than 35%. Not on current poll data as we have it 134 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:54,560 now. Obviously anything can happen in the next nine to 12 months, but I can't see them 135 00:13:54,560 --> 00:14:00,240 going much higher than 35%. Now, if you want to take over the government, you need 50% 136 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:06,000 as one. And that's really the basic problem that faces the moonshot coalition. In May 137 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:13,400 you said that the most probable outcome would be that the ANC gets high 40s and that they 138 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:21,120 can then go into coalition with the IFP, which will take them over 50. Is that still your 139 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:26,600 view? Yes, I still think that's a possibility. But what has developed since then is this 140 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:31,720 agreement between the DA and IFP on the local government level. And one wants to now ask 141 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:36,720 the question, if you are a formal coalition partner in one province on the local government 142 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:42,920 level, can you in the national government go into coalition with somebody else? That 143 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:48,320 strikes me as a bit messy. And that strikes me as a bit sending confused signals to the 144 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:55,360 electorate. So I'm not so sure that that is as obvious as it was in May. In May, I think 145 00:14:55,360 --> 00:15:00,160 it was quite clear that the ANC would prefer to take the IFP. I've never shared the view 146 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:04,840 that they will go to the EFF, which was in May the dominant theme from the chattering 147 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:10,480 classes. I just don't think I didn't think it then. And I still don't think so. I think 148 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:18,120 events have shown to us there's a lot of opposition to ANC EFF coalition. So I'm not sure that 149 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:24,240 they will necessarily get the cooperation of the IFP. And then the question is what else 150 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:32,320 they will do. But as I said in May, it all depends on the numbers. If you get 47, 48%, 151 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:37,000 well then two or three percent are enough to get you over the line. If you get towards 152 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:43,240 40%, well then it becomes much more difficult. And then the idea of a grand coalition certainly 153 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:48,200 comes to the fore much more strongly. But then the grand coalition would, following 154 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:54,520 your logic, would have to include all three of those parties, the ANC, the DA and the 155 00:15:54,520 --> 00:16:02,360 IFP. Because what you said now about working with the IFP going into a coalition, or the 156 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:07,760 other way around actually, the IFP going into a coalition with the ANC at national level, 157 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:12,800 the same holds true for the DA. Absolutely. Yes, and I think you're right. I think the 158 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:19,800 ANC would also like to have the protection, if you want, of the IFP in a national, in 159 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:29,240 a grand coalition. They don't want to be exposed, have exposed flanks to the EFF and other parties 160 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:34,680 who can then attack them. So it is quite possible that it goes that way. But you know, it's 161 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:41,280 a year away. It's early days. It's very, very early days. Very early days. Just in almost 162 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:48,040 theoretical terms, the German ambassador was a guest speaker at the UWC conference. And 163 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:55,640 he made interesting points about how coalitions work best. Yes. So the German ambassador, 164 00:16:55,640 --> 00:17:00,840 they made a speech and he relayed lessons that the Germans have learned of coalitions. 165 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:06,160 Now, you must remember the Germans have had coalitions for a very, very long time, many 166 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:11,120 decades, and not just on the national level, but also in the land in the provinces. So 167 00:17:11,120 --> 00:17:17,080 they know about coalitions. And the ambassador shared that with the conference. And I think 168 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:22,920 a couple of them were very important. He said coalitions is about the politics of inclusion, 169 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:28,720 not exclusion. And I think that's a very important point for us in South Africa. We tend to emphasize 170 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:36,040 who we will not work with, not who we will work with. So that's a strong point. Coalition 171 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:41,960 is the art of negotiation, not the art of war. It sounds absolutely right, but a lot 172 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:47,480 of people don't practice that. Again, in our country, we like to go to war and use war-like 173 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:55,080 language instead of negotiating. Issues first, appointments later. In other words, how, not 174 00:17:55,080 --> 00:18:01,840 who. Issues first, how, not appointments, who. That was an important message from him. 175 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:06,440 And then concrete policies must be agreed on in advance. Now that's exactly what the 176 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:13,720 IFP and the DA agreed in respect of KwaZulu-Natal local government authorities. A concrete program 177 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:18,640 of action, concrete policies that they will pursue. And then of course, trust is absolutely 178 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:24,800 critical. And for that you need transparency and openness. And again, that is where we 179 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:29,860 can learn from the Germans. Another interesting point about Germany, Rudi, is that after the 180 00:18:29,860 --> 00:18:35,760 last elections, when Chancellor Schulz eventually became the Chancellor, the elections were 181 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:43,840 held in September. The government only took office and Chancellor Schulz was only inaugurated 182 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:49,520 in December. So there was a long time lag between the elections when the results were 183 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:54,480 known almost immediately and actually taking office. So what happened in that long time 184 00:18:54,480 --> 00:19:00,760 lag? The parties negotiated agreements on how they are going to govern. Exactly the 185 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:07,400 kind of thing that we saw in respect of KwaZulu-Natal local government. So in South Africa, our 186 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:12,640 constitution at the moment only allows 14 days. 14 days after the election has been 187 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:18,700 certified by the Independent Electoral Commission, parliament must meet and at its first meeting 188 00:19:18,700 --> 00:19:24,280 it must elect a president. The constitution is quite clear on that. So we've given ourselves 189 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:29,200 14 days or we have 14 days in terms of our constitution, while the Germans have taken 190 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:34,840 a couple of months to form a government. So that's something that we will have to also 191 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:40,400 keep in mind as we approach the possibility, not the inevitability, but the possibility 192 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:46,600 of a coalition government at national level. Can I just make one more point about coalition 193 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:51,160 forming? You know, I think it's quite clear that the majority of South Africans are not 194 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:58,040 radical. We see that from opinion polls, but we also see it from, we also saw it in the 195 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:05,480 2021 July unrest and we've seen it in various areas of our national life. Yes, there are 196 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:11,240 people who do violent things and do radical things and so on, but when the tire hits the 197 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:17,700 tire, South Africans are the middle of the road a lot. Now that implies that large numbers 198 00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:24,440 of political party supporters are also middle of the road people and the logical conclusion 199 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:29,920 that a number of ANC supporters are also middle of the road people and therefore I think the 200 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:37,440 German message of coalitions is about inclusion, not exclusion. It's an extremely relevant 201 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:44,960 and important one. Bring together those people that can reinforce the democratic model. It 202 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:49,560 doesn't really matter in which parties they sit and they sit in most parties, not all 203 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:55,920 parties but in most parties. Bring them together. That is the message that we must take from 204 00:20:55,920 --> 00:21:01,480 opinion polls and other data that tells us that South Africans are not really a radical 205 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:09,600 bunch. Many people worry, they are afraid, they have a fear that the junior partner in 206 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:17,000 a coalition will be swapped and in the next election just wiped out. Especially I think 207 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:24,440 DA supporters fear that. Is it legitimate? Well as one DA supporter said to me, the DA 208 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:29,360 will be dragged down by the ANC and I think that sentiment is fairly widespread. Yes, 209 00:21:29,360 --> 00:21:34,300 I think it is legitimate. We saw it happening in the United Kingdom when the liberals went 210 00:21:34,300 --> 00:21:39,480 into a coalition with the Tories and in the subsequent election the Tories trounced and 211 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:45,120 the liberals were wiped out. The counter example you find on the continent of Europe, Germany 212 00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:51,760 for example, where there are small parties like the free democrats who regularly fall 213 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:56,520 below the 5% threshold, then they fall out of parliament, next election they come back 214 00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:02,720 and they are above 5%, so they are represented and then they normally, not always but quite 215 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:08,440 often form part of some ruling coalition, yet they remain, they retain, they remain 216 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:15,760 independent and they retain an independent identity and political programme and so on. 217 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:20,000 So I think what one must learn from that is to be very clear on what you will agree to 218 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:25,920 and what you won't agree to. What are fundamental commitments or values that you as a party 219 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:31,600 have on which you are prepared to negotiate and which not. And again that is where the 220 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:37,080 case that in agreement between the DA and the IFP for me is so interesting. There are 221 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:42,960 clear commitments and there are clear priorities. That's the kind of model we need. The liberals 222 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,720 never negotiated that kind of agreement as far as I know in the UK. So it's all about 223 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,700 your identity and sticking with your identity irrespective of how big or small you are. 224 00:22:52,700 --> 00:22:59,760 So I think that is something that can be overcome. The whole of Europe is run by coalitions and 225 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:04,080 there you've got big and small parties and they all face with the same problem and the 226 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:08,720 small parties survive, they don't disappear. So no, I think it's just a new style of politics 227 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:16,320 that we must get used to. In summary, so what? Well, for me the most important so what is 228 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:24,000 that the free development since May indicate to me that the ground is shifting as far as 229 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:29,480 coalitions go. Three months ago in May, a couple of months ago in May, beginning of 230 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:36,360 the year, there was a sort of a consensus among the commentary that there will be ANC-EFF 231 00:23:36,360 --> 00:23:41,440 coalition and that is it. I don't think any of those people will now take such certain 232 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:48,400 views or positions on the coalition issue. The ground has shifted quite substantially 233 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:53,000 and what is happening in that shifting of the ground is that the parties of the middle 234 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:58,960 has got an opportunity to get together and to form a grand coalition of the middle, strengthening 235 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:04,920 the democratic centre. I think that opportunity now is bigger than what it was in May and 236 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:12,920 certainly much bigger than what it was in January. So what for the probably most pressing 237 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:18,640 area and that is local governments? The local government election is only in 2026, it's 238 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:24,240 now 2023. So must we now for the next three years carry on with this stumbling that we 239 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:31,640 have? Clearly not. So what I think is needed is an in principle agreement for a grand coalition 240 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:37,000 or a coalition between parties of the middle and they must come together and reconstitute 241 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:42,240 councils where you have this up and down all the time, of which our beloved Johannesburg 242 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:48,960 is a classic example. And if we can get the parties of the middle to take hands and join 243 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:54,440 together you can actually form very strong local governments, strong in the sense that 244 00:24:54,440 --> 00:25:01,560 they represent 70% and two thirds of the voters. Then you can have administrative stability 245 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:07,120 and things can go forward. And that is a political agreement, you don't need legislation for 246 00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:12,720 that. What you need is the political world to do it and then doing the hard work of negotiating 247 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:17,520 the political agreements and put them into practice. So that's the only way forward 248 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:22,960 that I see for local governments, is to use the three years until the next election to 249 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:28,480 establish such coalitions and then they will also have an impact the year from now when 250 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:33,560 we have the national election, it can have an impact on how a national government is 251 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:40,880 formed. Can I push you on do you think it might actually happen that people in local 252 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:48,200 government form solid coalitions and come to this kind of agreement? Well, what we hear 253 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:52,600 from the political arena is that people in Johannesburg are saying there will be a change 254 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:57,480 in government again quite soon. We've now had what was it eight mayors, eight years 255 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:04,560 or something, one year similar noises from Nelson Mandela Bay. It looks as if the DA 256 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:11,400 coalition in Twane is surviving in spite of attempts to topple it. So it does seem to 257 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:16,900 me that there is there as well, there's a kind of a shifting of the ground or shifting 258 00:26:16,900 --> 00:26:21,760 of positions rather. And I think it's quite possible that it can develop years. I'm not 259 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:30,560 making a prediction, but you know, let's see what transpires over the next six months. 260 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:35,700 Thank you for listening to the So What podcast. If you enjoy this content, please don't forget 261 00:26:35,700 --> 00:26:40,620 to leave a review and a rating and please consider subscribing so you don't miss any 262 00:26:40,620 --> 00:26:46,720 future episodes. Also tell your friends. Remember you can find a written version of all JP's 263 00:26:46,720 --> 00:27:04,200 content at JPLandman.co.za.