1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:11,200 Hello and welcome to the So What podcast in which political economic analyst JP Landman 2 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:15,520 discusses the issues uppermost in the minds of South Africans. 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:21,520 You can find a written version of this content on JP's website jplundmann.co.au. 4 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:28,720 I am Ruda Landman and I am your host. 5 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:33,560 These first few recordings were done at our dining room table but we will soon be moving 6 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,440 into a studio. 7 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:41,720 Hello and welcome to a recording to go with JP's latest newsletter. 8 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:48,720 It's dated the 19th of May 2023 and the title is Coalitions. 9 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:54,640 I suppose it's unnecessary to ask why this is such a hot topic at the moment. 10 00:00:54,640 --> 00:01:00,080 Well if Johannesburg elects its 8th mayor in about 7 or 8 years and you look at the 11 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:06,520 dysfunctionality of municipalities all over the country, our experience of coalitions 12 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,000 have not been a successful one, not at all. 13 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:16,400 We've had coalitions since 2021, 2016 in Jo’burg but 2021 in other parts of the country and 14 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,320 it hasn't been an epic experience. 15 00:01:18,320 --> 00:01:24,140 There's a lot of volatility, a lot of change in leadership all the time and the bottom 16 00:01:24,140 --> 00:01:29,920 line is that the argument goes about who, not about how. 17 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:35,640 It is just the different digits giving us two very different words and two very different 18 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:36,640 outcomes. 19 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:41,420 It's about who occupies position of power and not about how we're going to exercise 20 00:01:41,420 --> 00:01:42,840 power. 21 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:47,640 And now we've got to have a national election in the years time, in May 2024, 12 months 22 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:53,720 from now if the election is not postponed and a lot of people are filled with the anxiety 23 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:59,360 that one party will not get 50% of the vote and that we will then be forced into coalitions 24 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,880 at the national level and that is why it's a pertinent issue. 25 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:11,400 There's much excitement at the moment around the DA's moonshot pact and a series of small 26 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,920 new parties starting up. 27 00:02:13,920 --> 00:02:17,720 If you look at the numbers what do they tell you? 28 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:23,480 Well the numbers tell me that the DA will really have a hard time to get to 50% through 29 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:25,280 a moonshot pact. 30 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:30,520 There are 14 political parties currently in parliament, four parties of which the DA 31 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,080 is one, command 92.5% of the vote. 32 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,320 The other 10 parties share 7.5%. 33 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,280 So it's not that we don't have small parties in the South African politics or parliament, 34 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:42,280 we have them. 35 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,240 They're just not that important. 36 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:49,760 Now the premise of the moonshot pact is that the DA can replace the ANC as the biggest 37 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,240 single party and that I think is wishful thinking. 38 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:58,920 It is quite possible, it may happen, that the ANC drops below 50% but it's very far 39 00:02:58,920 --> 00:03:03,800 from probable that they will drop to a level lower than the democratic alliance. 40 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:10,200 Now if you take the small parties in parliament, the parties making up that 7.5% plus the 41 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:17,720 IFP that the DA is talking to, you can get to a maximum, really a big maximum of 40% 42 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,640 and that is not going to be a game changer. 43 00:03:20,640 --> 00:03:24,600 So I'm not excited about the moonshot. 44 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:29,240 When it comes to smaller political parties, just remember one statistic from the last 45 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,880 election, the 2019 national elections. 46 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:37,640 48 political parties registered to participate. 47 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,320 They made it into parliament. 48 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,880 4 commanded 92.5% of the vote. 49 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,960 48, 14, 4. 50 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:52,000 So they are always in all elections in South African new parties, generating a lot of excitement 51 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,280 and in the end they do not upset the apple card. 52 00:03:55,280 --> 00:04:00,360 And I think it will take quite a huge shift in our politics for the DA to become the biggest 53 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:05,840 party and therefore for the moonshot to have a chance and for any of the smaller parties 54 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:09,160 to come in and upset the apple card. 55 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:13,440 They can do well, they can get 4, 5% of the vote, which is a good number for a party that's 56 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:14,880 starting out. 57 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,560 But it's not a number that determines power. 58 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,440 What about the stay-away vote? 59 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,120 That is the big uncertainty. 60 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:22,680 You put your finger on it. 61 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:28,120 The big question in our electoral politics is the millions of people who over the years 62 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,920 have decided to withhold their vote and not to vote for any party. 63 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,600 That is the big uncertainty. 64 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:39,560 Will there this time in 2024 step up and vote? 65 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,240 And if they step up and vote, who will they vote for? 66 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:47,600 And we simply just know we'll have to wait for the votes to be counted. 67 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:54,880 But you do believe that it is possible for the ANC to actually make it, to get 50 plus 68 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:56,400 one or a bit more? 69 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:01,040 Well I think we should not treat it as a forgotten conclusion that they will drop below 50. 70 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:05,640 I think that would be as reckless as saying that they will get 50. 71 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,240 Why do I feel they have a chance to get 50%? 72 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:09,880 Two factors. 73 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:15,520 The first one is that load shedding is probably the single most important factor now in our 74 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:17,640 national political life. 75 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:19,120 People are really angry about it. 76 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,240 People are really upset about it. 77 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:26,160 Now the research that we've done and which we've shared with clients, proprietary work 78 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:31,600 we've done, indicate quite clearly that enough renewable power will be installed over the 79 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:37,360 next 18 to 24 months to alleviate load shedding substantially. 80 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:44,160 You know there's research out not by us but by other people that if as little as 5,000 81 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:49,000 megawatts of renewables are installed, you can cut load shedding by 60%. 82 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:54,400 Now our numbers indicate that we're going to get 20,000 megawatts over the next two 83 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:55,400 years. 84 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:59,280 The election is going to be in a year's time, not two years so be aware of that. 85 00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:04,280 The point I'm trying to make is the more load shedding gets alleviated after this winter 86 00:06:04,280 --> 00:06:09,760 and the more it gets better, which in due course it will because new capacity is installed, 87 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:14,280 the more the ANC will get the credit or there's a chance that the ANC will get the credit. 88 00:06:14,280 --> 00:06:15,960 They will also claim it I'm sure. 89 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,560 They will also claim it. 90 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,680 So that's the, now there's of course a big idea at play here. 91 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,040 All these projects that I'm talking about are being driven by the private sector. 92 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,000 They keen to get the job done. 93 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:29,560 They keen to connect to the grid. 94 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,000 They keen to get the show on the road so to speak. 95 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:38,440 And the keener they are and the more successful they are, the more the ANC will get the credit. 96 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,180 It's one of those ironies that play out in life. 97 00:06:41,180 --> 00:06:44,080 But I think that is something one must be aware of. 98 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,800 The second thing is simply the social grant system. 99 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:51,520 At a moment there are 10 million people in South Africa who receive 350 around a month 100 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:52,520 from the government. 101 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:57,520 It's a social distress relief grant, the so-called SDR. 102 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,680 This grant goes as I've said to 10 million people. 103 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,920 It was instituted during COVID, right? 104 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:08,760 It was instituted during and just after COVID to try and alleviate COVID distress. 105 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:13,440 It is scheduled to end at the end of March 2024. 106 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:18,680 Now the chances of that grant being terminated in March, which is two months before the election, 107 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:20,200 must be absolutely null. 108 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,080 I can't see that happening. 109 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:26,920 What I can see happening is that the grant will be renamed. 110 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:28,800 It won't be called the social distress grant. 111 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,960 It will be called the basic income grant or something. 112 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:32,960 It will be made permanent. 113 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:38,800 It will probably be increased a little bit within what the fiscus fines it can afford. 114 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,600 And the government will say, look what we've done for you. 115 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:46,680 We've given a permanent grant, permanent social relief to 10 million people. 116 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,520 We've taken away the uncertainty that the grant may end and they even may increase the 117 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:51,520 budget. 118 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:52,520 I think they will increase it. 119 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,840 So that will have a huge impact. 120 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:01,400 Many of those people may be part of the stay away group, if I can call it that. 121 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:02,400 Absolutely. 122 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,080 And that move may encourage them to actually go out and stand up and vote and then vote 123 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:07,720 for the ANC again. 124 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,800 It'll also solidify ANC support. 125 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:11,240 Many people are wavering. 126 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,960 We'll then say, okay, you know what the party is looking after us. 127 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,560 Let's give our vote to them again. 128 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,840 So I think these two factors can add up to pushing the ANC over the line. 129 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,440 But of course, against that, you've got a couple of factors. 130 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:29,840 You've got the anger about load shedding, which may carry on and keep on damaging the 131 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:30,840 ANC. 132 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,640 The ANC itself admits that it's damaging them. 133 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:39,640 Secondly, there's the utter dysfunctionality at the municipal level, which is getting worse 134 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:40,640 by the day. 135 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:45,320 Potholes, sanitation works, water supply, that sort of thing. 136 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:52,200 And thirdly, there is just the ongoing reports on corruption that keeps on dropping, dropping, 137 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,720 dropping like water dropping through the roof. 138 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,160 And I think, so where is the balance? 139 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:00,160 Where is the balance? 140 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,040 Will it be over 50 or below 50? 141 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,760 I honestly don't know. 142 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:04,760 None of us know. 143 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,640 We will have to wait for the votes to be counted again. 144 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:08,640 Okay. 145 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:15,280 So let's turn to the possibility that the ANC does not get 50 plus one. 146 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,160 What do you think will happen? 147 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:23,200 What do we know of the major parties and the attitude to coalitions? 148 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:29,200 Well, in that sense, April was a very, very interesting month because the three big parties, 149 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:36,360 the ANC, the DA and the IFP, three of the four big parties, have shown their hands. 150 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:40,120 And if I can just take them in sort of cronological order. 151 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:45,520 On the 2nd of April, John Steenhuizen made his acceptance speech when he was re-elected, 152 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,320 his leader of the DA. 153 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:51,680 It was a speech of 1,440 something words. 154 00:09:51,680 --> 00:09:55,120 He used the word values once. 155 00:09:55,120 --> 00:10:01,800 What he emphasized in the speech was not values, but who is excluded from his moonshot coalition. 156 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,960 Not so much who is included, but who is excluded. 157 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,680 And he made two points very strongly. 158 00:10:07,680 --> 00:10:11,480 The first was that he is absolutely against the EFF. 159 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:12,480 Okay. 160 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:13,480 Fine. 161 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:14,480 There's no news there. 162 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:19,920 But then secondly, he said that anybody, any organization, any political party who has 163 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,920 tethered themselves to the ANC will also not be welcome. 164 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:29,600 Now in my view, that is clearly painting the DA and himself into a corner. 165 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:34,520 By emphasizing those who are excluded and not those who can be included, you're limiting 166 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,520 your spatial vulnerability. 167 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:38,880 So that was the DA. 168 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:44,600 Not so much emphasis on values, a very strong emphasis on who's in and who's out. 169 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:49,000 Then a few days later, on the 8th of April, and maybe it wasn't in response, I don't 170 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,640 know, the IFP showed their hand. 171 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:56,360 And Mr. Hlengwa, who was a chair of the parliamentary committee on public accounts, 172 00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:03,120 SCOPA, and a very strong IFP leader, came out with a clear statement with five succinct 173 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:08,440 values, emphasizing the importance of values, saying that the IFP can't go with parties, 174 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:10,840 that they do not agree basic values on. 175 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,280 And those five values are very straightforward. 176 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:20,280 It's democracy, it's social equity, it's ethical leadership, really things that most 177 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,160 of Africans certainly will be able to relate to. 178 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:24,960 But then he made a second point. 179 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:30,160 And the second point was the way in which parties conduct themselves in a run up to 180 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,680 the election in 12 months time. 181 00:11:32,680 --> 00:11:37,400 That's being such a way that you can include other people in a possible coalition. 182 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:41,760 Should, and that's the way you put it, should it happen that the electorate doesn't give 183 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,280 one party 50% plus one? 184 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:49,760 So not only was it emphasizing values and talking about values, which I think is a critical 185 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:56,600 foundation, but it was also talking process and our politics should be conducted. 186 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:00,400 And I find those two pillars quite useful. 187 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:06,200 A couple of days later, towards the end of April, the ANC at the National Executive Committee 188 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:11,080 meeting adopted a framework on local government coalitions. 189 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,080 It talks about local government coalitions. 190 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:18,880 Presumably the framework will also apply to a national government coalition. 191 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,720 And essentially they made the same point as the IFP. 192 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,520 They must agree on basic values. 193 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,880 Just as the IFP has said. 194 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:32,440 They then listed 12 of those values and again it's stuff that everybody can agree with. 195 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,560 There's nothing there which is objectionable. 196 00:12:35,560 --> 00:12:38,760 And they then listed a number of other principles as well. 197 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,120 Important principles for a coalition. 198 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,000 They've clearly given some thought to it. 199 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:48,480 However, less than a week or so later, a new mayor was elected in Johannesburg, as I've 200 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:54,400 said, the 8th mayor and the ANC just basically ignored all those guidelines. 201 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:59,720 So yes, they do have a framework, but yes, they didn't apply the framework. 202 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,920 And that tells us something about the ruling party. 203 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,760 So all three parties, all three major parties have shown their hand. 204 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:13,560 And if you look at it and you assume for the moment that most DA members can go along with 205 00:13:13,560 --> 00:13:20,800 the values as articulated by the IFP and as articulated by the ANC, then it seems to me 206 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,080 values is not a stumbling block. 207 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,920 And it's possible for the three main parties to come together. 208 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:34,360 And that raises the very intriguing possibility that we can move into a politics where the 209 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:39,680 three, what I want to call the three parties of the center, where they come together and 210 00:13:39,680 --> 00:13:41,880 form a grand coalition. 211 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:47,400 At the end of the day, the differences between the DA, the IFP and the ANC are really not 212 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:48,400 that fundamental. 213 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:53,880 Yes, there are people in each party who hate people from another party. 214 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:58,560 There are people in each party who are ideological about certain points and they wouldn't like 215 00:13:58,560 --> 00:13:59,560 to go with other parties. 216 00:13:59,560 --> 00:14:02,400 Surely that's more true of the ANC. 217 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:10,440 If you say the ANC agree about most values with the DA and the IFP, I don't think so. 218 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,160 Not the whole of the ANC. 219 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:17,160 No, not the whole of the ANC, but certainly majority, certainly the majority. 220 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:23,120 The ANC who accepted that framework and the values in that framework, the RET faction that 221 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:28,520 supports the coalition of the EFF can be found in Gauteng and they can be found in KZN, but 222 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,280 not necessarily in the rest of the party. 223 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:37,560 So they are there, they are important, but I think you can undercut the KZN faction with 224 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:43,840 the IFP coalition and in Gauteng, well, in the N numbers we'll talk and I doubt whether 225 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,640 they can get the numbers. 226 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:51,000 So I think it's possible for the three parties of the center to come together. 227 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,760 This is a different kind of moonshot idea. 228 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,480 I think that's a real moonshot. 229 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,040 What do we know about South Africans? 230 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:04,800 We know that the majority of South Africans, three quarters at least, 80%, are not radical 231 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:09,720 in their outlook or the way they live and relate to other South Africans. 232 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,560 They're not extremists. 233 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,760 But our politics does not reflect that. 234 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,800 Our political party makeup does not reflect that. 235 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:25,520 So I think it's time for the central forces to come together. 236 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:31,760 At the end of the day, the differences between the non-RET faction of the ANC, the IFP and 237 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:37,360 the DA, the non-ideological part of the DA are not that big. 238 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:41,800 And if the Germans can work together in a grand coalition where there are very clear 239 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:47,240 differences delineated between parties, I can't see why we can't do it. 240 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:54,120 But if the ANC gets a 46 or 47% and the IFP gets what, 5? 241 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:55,120 4 or 5%. 242 00:15:55,120 --> 00:16:01,160 4 or 5, then won't they just get together and run the country? 243 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:02,720 Yes, I think that's what will happen. 244 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:06,360 And then you can throw in a small party like Good and you can probably throw in a small 245 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,680 party like Aljamar. 246 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:13,240 They have consistently voted with ANC in the lifetime of this parliament, the current 247 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:14,240 parliament. 248 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:18,840 So those small parties will come together with the IFP and ANC in their life more than 249 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,440 50%. 250 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:29,000 But the question we have to ask is, can the big problems of South Africa really be solved 251 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:34,560 by a government that is supported by only 50, 51, 52% of the people? 252 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:40,200 Don't we have a better chance of solving the problems of the country with a government 253 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,960 that's supported by 70% of the citizens? 254 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,440 And what are the big problems of the country? 255 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,160 Well, it's the issues we know. 256 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:49,160 It's poverty. 257 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:50,160 It's unemployment. 258 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,360 It's our education system. 259 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:54,360 It's housing. 260 00:16:54,360 --> 00:17:01,960 To summarise it in one sentence, it is to restore the dignity of all South Africans in their 261 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,040 daily existence. 262 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:11,240 Not just in theory, not just in terms of access to the right to vote or the right to mobilise 263 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,960 all the rights that our constitution gives us, but it's to fulfil the promise of the 264 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:22,760 constitution that the dignity of all South Africans in their daily existence will be 265 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,120 restored or at least be installed. 266 00:17:26,120 --> 00:17:28,080 And I think that is a mammoth task. 267 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:32,280 That is not something that one party can do in its own, not in a democracy. 268 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,320 You can try to do it under the dictatorship, but that's not where we are. 269 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:41,680 So I think it is better to have a democracy supported by 70% of the people that can have 270 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:46,720 this national goal of let's uplift all South Africans. 271 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:53,160 And that's why I think even if the ANC gets 51% of the vote, it may be better for everybody 272 00:17:53,160 --> 00:18:00,960 the ANC included to pursue a route of a 70-75% government with healthy differences and so 273 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:05,160 on between them, but not so healthy that you can't govern. 274 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:10,120 I think it's a possibility and you're quite right, that is the real moonshot. 275 00:18:10,120 --> 00:18:12,480 In summary, so what? 276 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:17,680 Look I think if you look at the mess with loadshedding, you look at the stagnant economy, you look 277 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:22,560 at the dysfunctionality of municipalities, you look at the potholes, you look at the 278 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:27,800 general discontent of the population, then I think we run a real risk that the South 279 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,360 African democracy will become delegitimised. 280 00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:37,120 And we see in several countries around the world where democracy is being delegitimised. 281 00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:43,840 We run that risk too if we cannot fulfil the promise of our constitution of a quarter 282 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,960 of a century ago. 283 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:47,560 And that's really what is at stake here. 284 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:52,320 The failure not just of local government and particular departments and so on, but the 285 00:18:52,320 --> 00:19:00,440 failure to live up to the promise of our constitution can delegitimize our constitutional project, 286 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,000 our democracy project. 287 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:06,160 In other words, that people simply think it wasn't worth it? 288 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:07,160 It wasn't worth it. 289 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,560 It's time to turn to some kind of the data. 290 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:15,920 It's time to yield power to a populace to make all kinds of warm promises. 291 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:19,640 Developments that we see elsewhere in the world, that's the risk we run. 292 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:26,320 And I think it's a risk that can be avoided by having a strong 70% government in charge. 293 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:32,280 Also, I think the countries in many ways now, where it was in the 1980s, there are obvious 294 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:33,280 lift differences. 295 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,880 Of course, we then had a semi-civil war. 296 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:36,880 We don't have that now. 297 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,000 We then had apartheid. 298 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,040 We don't have that now. 299 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,800 We then had a huge degree of repression. 300 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:43,800 We don't have that now. 301 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,160 Yes, there are obvious differences. 302 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:47,160 What are the similarities? 303 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:53,040 Well, the similarities is a stagnant economy, huge poverty and deprivation, the politics 304 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,280 that is stagnant and not bringing hope to people. 305 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,720 Those are the similarities of the 80s. 306 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,000 And what happened in the 80s? 307 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,400 We now know that today we've got the benefit of hindsight. 308 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:11,320 What we got was a political initiative that unlocked what we had in South Africa and we 309 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,280 moved towards a democracy. 310 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:18,440 And I think we need a similar kind of initiative that bring together the parties of the center 311 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:24,760 to form a government that is supported by 70, 75% of the people. 312 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,160 You're surely leaving us with much food for thought. 313 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:29,880 Thank you very much. 314 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:35,120 My pleasure. 315 00:20:35,120 --> 00:20:37,680 Thank you for listening to the So What podcast. 316 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:42,720 If you enjoy this content, please don't forget to leave a review and a rating and please 317 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,440 consider subscribing so you don't miss any future episodes. 318 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,680 Also, tell your friends. 319 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:54,840 Remember you can find a written version of all JP's content at jplandman.co.za.