WEBVTT 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:03.520 Hello, dear listeners, and welcome to the Diplomacy 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:06.500 and Discourse Podcast. I'm your host, AR, and 00:00:06.500 --> 00:00:08.859 I'm thrilled to have you with me for part one 00:00:08.859 --> 00:00:12.880 of today's thought -provoking episode. This is 00:00:12.880 --> 00:00:15.980 the first of a two, maybe three -part series 00:00:15.980 --> 00:00:18.879 where we'll be unpacking some of the most influential 00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:22.879 ideas in international relations. Today, we begin 00:00:22.879 --> 00:00:26.059 with Samuel P. Huntington's famous, and highly 00:00:26.059 --> 00:00:30.059 debated, Clash of Civilizations theory. and how 00:00:30.059 --> 00:00:33.640 its arguments continue to echo in today's global 00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:38.700 geopolitics. Your support means the world. Don't 00:00:38.700 --> 00:00:41.340 forget to like, subscribe, and share your thoughts 00:00:41.340 --> 00:00:45.000 with us at diplomacyanddiscourseatgmail .com. 00:00:45.320 --> 00:00:47.859 Thank you for tuning in. Now let's dive into 00:00:47.859 --> 00:00:51.159 this fascinating exploration of power, culture, 00:00:51.619 --> 00:00:56.060 and politics. But before we get started, a quick 00:00:56.060 --> 00:00:59.130 disclaimer. This might be a topic of contention 00:00:59.130 --> 00:01:01.670 for some of you listeners. I'm not here to state 00:01:01.670 --> 00:01:04.650 that I agree or disagree with Huntington. Nonetheless, 00:01:05.129 --> 00:01:07.989 I think it remains an important framework that 00:01:07.989 --> 00:01:11.290 has shaped policy debates, so it's vital we understand 00:01:11.290 --> 00:01:17.349 both its insights and its criticisms. So picture 00:01:17.349 --> 00:01:21.930 this, a world in transition, where the old ideological 00:01:21.930 --> 00:01:26.159 battles of the Cold War have faded. But new lines 00:01:26.159 --> 00:01:30.579 of division threaten to emerge, drawn not around 00:01:30.579 --> 00:01:33.939 politics or economics, but around culture and 00:01:33.939 --> 00:01:37.400 religion. That's the world Huntington asks us 00:01:37.400 --> 00:01:42.099 to imagine. First formulated in a 1993 article 00:01:42.099 --> 00:01:46.700 and expanded into his 1996 book, The Clash of 00:01:46.700 --> 00:01:50.200 Civilizations and the remaking of World Order. 00:01:50.540 --> 00:01:54.079 Huntington's thesis argues that in the post -Cold 00:01:54.079 --> 00:01:57.920 War era, cultural and religious identities will 00:01:57.920 --> 00:02:01.480 become the primary drivers of conflict. In essence, 00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:05.319 he divides the globe into major civilizational 00:02:05.319 --> 00:02:10.879 blocks. Western, Islamic, Chinese, Hindu, Orthodox, 00:02:11.240 --> 00:02:14.879 Latin American, African, and others. and claims 00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:18.000 that fault lines between these blocks will become 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:23.219 the flashpoints of global politics. Why is this 00:02:23.219 --> 00:02:26.900 theory then so controversial? Many scholars argue 00:02:26.900 --> 00:02:30.280 that it oversimplifies the complexities of identity, 00:02:31.060 --> 00:02:34.080 reducing billions of people to broad cultural 00:02:34.080 --> 00:02:38.180 categories. Others worry that it can encourage 00:02:38.180 --> 00:02:42.840 stereotypes, feed prejudice, and even justify 00:02:42.840 --> 00:02:47.500 confrontational policies. And yet, the theory 00:02:47.500 --> 00:02:51.520 refuses to fade away. Every time tensions escalate 00:02:51.520 --> 00:02:54.580 between the West and the Islamic world, whether 00:02:54.580 --> 00:02:58.659 after 9 -11, during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, 00:02:59.199 --> 00:03:02.460 or even recent debates about migration and cultural 00:03:02.460 --> 00:03:05.879 integration in Europe, commentators bring Huntington 00:03:05.879 --> 00:03:10.699 back into the conversation. Similarly, the growing 00:03:10.699 --> 00:03:13.900 rivalry between the United States and China is 00:03:13.900 --> 00:03:18.500 often cited as a civilizational clash, with democratic 00:03:18.500 --> 00:03:22.620 liberalism on one side and a Confucian authoritarian 00:03:22.620 --> 00:03:26.539 model on the other. And when Russia frames its 00:03:26.539 --> 00:03:29.419 war in Ukraine as a defense of Orthodox Slavic 00:03:29.419 --> 00:03:32.879 identity against Western encroachment, echoes 00:03:32.879 --> 00:03:38.610 of Huntington's thesis also emerge. These examples 00:03:38.610 --> 00:03:42.729 show how Huntington's arguments, even if imperfect, 00:03:43.530 --> 00:03:46.310 continue to shape the way leaders, scholars, 00:03:46.870 --> 00:03:51.150 and the media interpret global conflicts. As 00:03:51.150 --> 00:03:54.229 I revisited Huntington's work, several questions 00:03:54.229 --> 00:03:57.449 came to mind. Could this really be the roadmap 00:03:57.449 --> 00:04:01.629 to our future? What happens if cultural and religious 00:04:01.629 --> 00:04:05.210 identities replace ideology as the dominant source 00:04:05.210 --> 00:04:08.629 of conflict? How would this reshape diplomacy, 00:04:09.310 --> 00:04:13.050 alliances, and even the way ordinary people interact 00:04:13.050 --> 00:04:18.410 across borders? So with those questions in mind, 00:04:18.649 --> 00:04:21.410 let's bring Huntington's theory into today's 00:04:21.410 --> 00:04:24.949 global landscape and examine whether his predictions 00:04:24.949 --> 00:04:29.649 hold up in the 21st century. Huntington argued 00:04:29.649 --> 00:04:33.050 that the widespread Western belief in the universality 00:04:33.050 --> 00:04:37.339 of values Democracy, liberalism, and human rights 00:04:37.339 --> 00:04:40.879 is misplaced in today's global landscape. We 00:04:40.879 --> 00:04:44.519 live in a shifting world, where economic, military, 00:04:44.899 --> 00:04:48.199 and political power is more diffused than at 00:04:48.199 --> 00:04:51.860 any point in modern history. The West no longer 00:04:51.860 --> 00:04:56.199 enjoys unchallenged dominance. The rise of new 00:04:56.199 --> 00:04:59.519 economic giants in the East, the resurgence of 00:04:59.519 --> 00:05:02.899 old powers like Russia and China, and the restructuring 00:05:02.899 --> 00:05:06.000 of the global economy have created both uncertainty 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:11.540 and new areas of competition. On today's geopolitical 00:05:11.540 --> 00:05:15.139 chessboard, Huntington highlighted two civilizations 00:05:15.139 --> 00:05:20.139 as especially significant – China and Islam. 00:05:20.980 --> 00:05:24.040 For China, as one of the world's oldest continuous 00:05:24.040 --> 00:05:27.439 civilizations, China has steadily reasserted 00:05:27.439 --> 00:05:30.420 itself aiming to reclaim regional leadership 00:05:30.420 --> 00:05:34.350 and challenge Western interests. Its rapid economic 00:05:34.350 --> 00:05:38.269 growth, military modernization, and ambitious 00:05:38.269 --> 00:05:41.569 projects like the Belt and Road Initiative shows 00:05:41.569 --> 00:05:45.509 Beijing's determination to expand its influence. 00:05:46.689 --> 00:05:49.589 Washington, meanwhile, responds with Indo -Pacific 00:05:49.589 --> 00:05:53.730 alliances, trade restrictions, and explicit support 00:05:53.730 --> 00:05:57.550 for Taiwan's autonomy. From trade wars to military 00:05:57.550 --> 00:06:00.800 drills in the South China Sea, the clash of strategic 00:06:00.800 --> 00:06:04.680 visions between the US and China seems to echo 00:06:04.680 --> 00:06:09.100 Huntington's predictions. And for the Islamic 00:06:09.100 --> 00:06:12.800 civilization, Huntington controversially wrote 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:16.920 that Islam has bloody borders, pointing to recurring 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:20.540 conflicts along Muslim -non -Muslim frontiers. 00:06:20.920 --> 00:06:24.399 Events like the Iranian Revolution, the US wars 00:06:24.399 --> 00:06:27.839 in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Syrian Civil War, 00:06:28.040 --> 00:06:32.420 the rise of ISIS, and the ongoing Gaza war all 00:06:32.420 --> 00:06:36.699 seemed to reinforce parts of his arguments. Yet, 00:06:37.000 --> 00:06:40.740 here too, we must question, are these conflicts 00:06:40.740 --> 00:06:45.019 primarily civilizational, or are they just as 00:06:45.019 --> 00:06:48.879 much about state power, authoritarian rule, colonial 00:06:48.879 --> 00:06:55.000 legacies, and global inequality? And many scholars 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:59.139 pushed back. Amartya Sen the Nobel Peace Prize 00:06:59.139 --> 00:07:02.139 -winning economist warns against reducing people 00:07:02.139 --> 00:07:05.699 to one dimension of identity, like religion or 00:07:05.699 --> 00:07:11.500 civilization. In his Identity and Violence, 2006 00:07:11.500 --> 00:07:15.060 work, Sen argues that humans hold many overlapping 00:07:15.060 --> 00:07:19.000 identities, like national, professional, linguistic, 00:07:19.620 --> 00:07:23.339 regional, cultural, and that conflict arises 00:07:23.339 --> 00:07:27.540 when people are boxed into a single civilizational 00:07:27.540 --> 00:07:34.420 label. Edward Said, author of Orientalism, critiqued 00:07:34.420 --> 00:07:37.839 Huntington directly, calling the clash of civilizations 00:07:37.839 --> 00:07:42.060 a dangerous simplification that fosters an us 00:07:42.060 --> 00:07:46.180 -versus -them mindset. Said argued that Huntington's 00:07:46.180 --> 00:07:49.319 framing was less about describing the world and 00:07:49.319 --> 00:07:52.879 more about justifying Western fears after the 00:07:52.879 --> 00:07:58.670 Cold War. And there's Francis Fukuyama, writing 00:07:58.670 --> 00:08:02.170 just before Huntington, envisioned a very different 00:08:02.170 --> 00:08:06.649 outcome. In The End of History and The Last Man, 00:08:06.970 --> 00:08:11.370 1992, he claimed liberal democracy would be the 00:08:11.370 --> 00:08:14.189 final form of global political organization. 00:08:15.189 --> 00:08:19.709 Instead of endless clashes, Fukuyama imagined 00:08:19.709 --> 00:08:23.790 the spread of Western values as nearly inevitable. 00:08:24.170 --> 00:08:28.149 an argument disrupted by the very events Huntington 00:08:28.149 --> 00:08:31.709 would later interpret as civilizational conflict. 00:08:34.269 --> 00:08:37.830 Adding to this, globalization complicates Huntington's 00:08:37.830 --> 00:08:41.730 vision. Despite conflicts, the 21st century has 00:08:41.730 --> 00:08:45.750 also seen unprecedented interconnectedness. Muslim 00:08:45.750 --> 00:08:48.529 -majority countries are deeply tied to global 00:08:48.529 --> 00:08:52.809 economies. The Gulf states, acting as financial 00:08:52.809 --> 00:08:57.799 hubs, Turkey straddling East and West, Indonesia 00:08:57.799 --> 00:09:02.879 emerging as a G20 leader. China's factories are 00:09:02.879 --> 00:09:06.919 deeply intertwined with U .S. consumers. Technology, 00:09:07.500 --> 00:09:10.740 trade, and migration mean that civilizations 00:09:10.740 --> 00:09:14.759 are not sealed compartments, but overlapping 00:09:14.759 --> 00:09:20.740 networks. So the deeper question is this. Are 00:09:20.740 --> 00:09:23.899 we truly witnessing a clash of civilizations? 00:09:24.879 --> 00:09:28.460 Or do Huntington's predictions merely provide 00:09:28.460 --> 00:09:32.220 a convenient story to explain what are really 00:09:32.220 --> 00:09:36.539 power struggles, resource competitions, and identity 00:09:36.539 --> 00:09:41.919 politics layered on top of globalization? So 00:09:41.919 --> 00:09:46.139 for example, US -China relations are both rivalry 00:09:46.139 --> 00:09:50.340 and partnership. Islam and the West clash in 00:09:50.340 --> 00:09:53.779 some contexts, but Muslims are also integral 00:09:53.779 --> 00:09:57.600 participants in Western societies. And there's 00:09:57.600 --> 00:10:01.460 global challenges, like climate change, AI governance, 00:10:02.000 --> 00:10:05.179 pandemics, which all demand collective solutions, 00:10:05.720 --> 00:10:11.259 not isolation. Huntington saw inevitable clashes. 00:10:11.940 --> 00:10:15.320 His critiques suggest a more nuanced reality. 00:10:15.500 --> 00:10:19.980 One where identities overlap, where cooperation 00:10:19.980 --> 00:10:24.639 and conflict coexist, and where politics, rather 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:28.720 than civilizations alone, drive much of the story. 00:10:30.779 --> 00:10:34.759 So let's take Denmark for example. It's a nation 00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:38.200 known for its openness and multicultural values 00:10:38.200 --> 00:10:41.519 that found itself at the center of global controversy 00:10:41.519 --> 00:10:45.929 in 2005. The publication of cartoons depicting 00:10:45.929 --> 00:10:49.669 the Prophet Muhammad in a Danish newspaper ignited 00:10:49.669 --> 00:10:53.710 outrage across the Muslim world, triggering protests, 00:10:54.309 --> 00:10:58.210 embassy attacks, and even violent clashes. What 00:10:58.210 --> 00:11:01.370 seemed to the Danes as an exercise in free speech 00:11:01.370 --> 00:11:05.269 was perceived by many Muslims as an intolerable 00:11:05.269 --> 00:11:08.570 violation of religious respect. This incident 00:11:08.570 --> 00:11:12.009 starkly illustrated how deeply held values can 00:11:12.009 --> 00:11:15.700 collide. religious devotion on one side, freedom 00:11:15.700 --> 00:11:19.179 of expression on the other, and how avoiding 00:11:19.179 --> 00:11:22.899 enmity in such cases can threaten the very fabric 00:11:22.899 --> 00:11:29.059 of open societies. It is precisely in such moments 00:11:29.059 --> 00:11:32.700 that people search for frameworks to explain 00:11:32.700 --> 00:11:37.059 global conflict. Huntington's Clash of Civilizations 00:11:37.059 --> 00:11:41.100 provides one such paradigm, casting many of these 00:11:41.100 --> 00:11:44.820 tensions as evidence of Islam's confrontation 00:11:44.820 --> 00:11:48.139 with the West. But is that really what we're 00:11:48.139 --> 00:11:52.919 witnessing? Consider the record. Are ethnic or 00:11:52.919 --> 00:11:56.460 cultural conflicts truly more frequent now than 00:11:56.460 --> 00:12:00.779 20 or 30 years ago? Not exactly. Many bloody 00:12:00.779 --> 00:12:04.559 conflicts in the 1990s had roots in Cold War 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:09.299 or even colonial legacies like Rwanda, Burundi, 00:12:09.600 --> 00:12:13.000 and the Balkans, which remind us that deep political 00:12:13.000 --> 00:12:16.039 and social grievances, not just civilizational 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:19.659 divides, exploded once authoritarian systems 00:12:19.659 --> 00:12:24.639 collapsed. In places like Yugoslavia, internecine 00:12:24.639 --> 00:12:27.740 war followed the breakdown of state control, 00:12:28.120 --> 00:12:31.340 much as it had after the collapse of earlier 00:12:31.340 --> 00:12:36.960 European empires. So, when Huntington frames 00:12:36.960 --> 00:12:40.580 Islam and the West as locked in perennial conflict, 00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:44.120 he overlooks these deeper currents. For one, 00:12:44.500 --> 00:12:47.139 he ignores the diversity within the Muslim world 00:12:47.139 --> 00:12:51.659 itself. Millions of Muslims are democratic, pluralistic, 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:55.240 and forward -looking. Indonesia, the world's 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:58.740 largest Muslim -majority democracy, is more often 00:12:58.740 --> 00:13:03.049 a U .S. partner than adversary. The same can 00:13:03.049 --> 00:13:05.809 be said of countries like Jordan or Morocco, 00:13:06.289 --> 00:13:11.269 which maintain strong ties with the West. Even 00:13:11.269 --> 00:13:15.210 geopolitics complicates Huntington's neat binaries. 00:13:15.970 --> 00:13:18.549 Saudi Arabia, often identified with conservative 00:13:18.549 --> 00:13:21.570 Islam, has long been one of America's closest 00:13:21.570 --> 00:13:26.250 allies. Its political and economic weight, particularly 00:13:26.250 --> 00:13:29.690 oil, has historically overridden ideological 00:13:29.690 --> 00:13:34.509 divides. The paradox of this U .S.-Saudi partnership 00:13:34.509 --> 00:13:39.190 complicates any straightforward notion of a civilizational 00:13:39.190 --> 00:13:44.830 clash. But recent events underscore this complexity. 00:13:46.090 --> 00:13:50.070 Take the Gaza war of 2023 to the present day, 00:13:50.289 --> 00:13:52.850 which has reignited global debates about Islam, 00:13:53.190 --> 00:13:57.070 the West, and justice. But what looks like a 00:13:57.070 --> 00:14:00.250 clash of faiths... is also a struggle over territory, 00:14:00.870 --> 00:14:03.730 national identity, and great power involvement, 00:14:04.269 --> 00:14:07.730 from U .S. mediation to Iran's support of militant 00:14:07.730 --> 00:14:12.850 groups. In Afghanistan, the Taliban's return 00:14:12.850 --> 00:14:17.370 to power in 2021 and their continued rule reflect 00:14:17.370 --> 00:14:20.970 not a monolithic clash of Islam vs the West, 00:14:21.490 --> 00:14:24.710 but the failure of western state building, regional 00:14:24.710 --> 00:14:30.779 power games, and internal Afghan dynamics. And 00:14:30.779 --> 00:14:34.000 in Europe, ongoing migration debates, whether 00:14:34.000 --> 00:14:37.360 over Syrian refugees in Germany, Afghan asylum 00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:40.519 seekers in the UK, or North African migration 00:14:40.519 --> 00:14:43.799 across the Mediterranean, often get framed in 00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:47.899 Huntingtonian terms. Yet many analysts argue 00:14:47.899 --> 00:14:51.600 these debates are driven more by economics, security 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:56.000 fears, and domestic politics. than by any pure, 00:14:56.259 --> 00:15:02.159 civilizational incompatibility. And critics sharpen 00:15:02.159 --> 00:15:06.279 these points. Joseph Nye reminds us that influence 00:15:06.279 --> 00:15:09.860 today flows not only from military might, but 00:15:09.860 --> 00:15:14.559 from soft power, like culture, diplomacy, education, 00:15:15.080 --> 00:15:18.700 and technology. The West's relationship with 00:15:18.700 --> 00:15:22.519 the Muslim world includes tensions, yes. but 00:15:22.519 --> 00:15:26.639 also millions of daily connections through universities, 00:15:27.200 --> 00:15:33.179 trade, and media. John Mearsheimer, the realist, 00:15:33.419 --> 00:15:35.779 would argue U .S. confrontation with Islamic 00:15:35.779 --> 00:15:39.779 states has little to do with civilizations and 00:15:39.779 --> 00:15:43.080 everything to do with resources and balance of 00:15:43.080 --> 00:15:46.779 power logic, like oil in Iraq, counter -terrorism 00:15:46.779 --> 00:15:50.659 in Afghanistan, security guarantees to allies 00:15:50.659 --> 00:15:57.080 like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Lastly, Amartya 00:15:57.080 --> 00:16:00.580 Sen critiques Huntington's flattening of identities, 00:16:01.139 --> 00:16:03.700 reminding us that Muslims are not only Muslims, 00:16:04.299 --> 00:16:07.960 they are also Indonesians, Nigerians, Britons, 00:16:08.360 --> 00:16:12.620 Americans, feminists, engineers, soccer players. 00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:16.580 Defending them by religion alone sets up the 00:16:16.580 --> 00:16:22.159 very divide Huntington describes. And what about 00:16:22.159 --> 00:16:25.759 terrorism and radical non -state actors? Groups 00:16:25.759 --> 00:16:30.059 like al -Qaeda or ISIS thrive on exactly this 00:16:30.059 --> 00:16:33.179 civilizational framing, casting themselves as 00:16:33.179 --> 00:16:36.299 defenders of Islam against the West. Yet the 00:16:36.299 --> 00:16:39.559 roots of their power were shaped as much by failed 00:16:39.559 --> 00:16:43.139 governance, economic despair, and foreign intervention 00:16:43.139 --> 00:16:48.250 as by ideology. The so -called clash often serves 00:16:48.250 --> 00:16:52.049 as a recruitment tool for extremists rather than 00:16:52.049 --> 00:16:56.429 an objective description of reality. Indeed, 00:16:56.669 --> 00:16:59.750 if Huntington were right in absolute terms, conflict 00:16:59.750 --> 00:17:02.269 between the U .S. and Indonesia, the world's 00:17:02.269 --> 00:17:05.430 most populous Muslim nation, would be inevitable. 00:17:06.309 --> 00:17:10.089 Instead, Washington and Jakarta cooperate on 00:17:10.089 --> 00:17:14.029 trade, security, and education, despite major 00:17:14.029 --> 00:17:18.700 differences on issues like wages, or LGBTQ rights. 00:17:20.539 --> 00:17:24.559 This forces us to confront an unsettling possibility, 00:17:24.920 --> 00:17:27.940 that the clash of civilizations narrative may 00:17:27.940 --> 00:17:31.839 itself be a political instrument. Leaders and 00:17:31.839 --> 00:17:35.099 pundits use it to justify wars, surveillance, 00:17:35.579 --> 00:17:39.619 and cultural fears. The clash becomes not an 00:17:39.619 --> 00:17:43.359 unavoidable destiny, but a story. One that can 00:17:43.359 --> 00:17:47.450 be weaponized to shape policies, and public opinions. 00:17:48.970 --> 00:17:53.430 So, is the clash real, or is it a lens used to 00:17:53.430 --> 00:17:56.529 control how we think about conflict? That's the 00:17:56.529 --> 00:18:00.910 question we have to carry forward. Nonetheless, 00:18:01.089 --> 00:18:04.789 however, as we probe deeper, we must confront 00:18:04.789 --> 00:18:09.130 an uncomfortable truth. The West has historically 00:18:09.130 --> 00:18:13.069 supported radical Islamist currents when it served 00:18:13.069 --> 00:18:16.930 its geopolitical interests. Both Washington and 00:18:16.930 --> 00:18:20.750 London once saw militant Islam as a buffer against 00:18:20.750 --> 00:18:24.089 secular nationalism during the Cold War, arming 00:18:24.089 --> 00:18:28.049 the Afghan Mujahideen in the 1980s to bleed the 00:18:28.049 --> 00:18:32.269 Soviet Union or backing Gulf monarchies to counter 00:18:32.269 --> 00:18:36.930 Jamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt. This history complicates 00:18:36.930 --> 00:18:40.430 any simple narrative of a civilizational clash. 00:18:41.309 --> 00:18:44.750 The U .S. may preach liberal values But time 00:18:44.750 --> 00:18:48.309 and again, it has allied with regimes that suppress 00:18:48.309 --> 00:18:52.789 them. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Kuwait. Because 00:18:52.789 --> 00:18:57.109 strategic interests outweighed ideological consistency. 00:18:59.869 --> 00:19:03.329 This paradox was exposed again during the Arab 00:19:03.329 --> 00:19:07.569 Spring of the early 2010s. The West cautiously 00:19:07.569 --> 00:19:11.410 supported uprisings in some countries, but defended 00:19:11.410 --> 00:19:15.569 its old allies and others. liberal rhetoric collided 00:19:15.569 --> 00:19:19.369 with hard, real politic, undermining the idea 00:19:19.369 --> 00:19:23.029 that democracy promotion drives foreign policy. 00:19:24.910 --> 00:19:28.109 Looking to the future, some analysts suggest 00:19:28.109 --> 00:19:31.690 that we're moving toward parallel blocks rather 00:19:31.690 --> 00:19:36.630 than an open clash, a world of partial coexistence, 00:19:36.950 --> 00:19:40.230 where civilians live side by side while protecting 00:19:40.230 --> 00:19:43.109 their own spheres of influence. In the Western 00:19:43.109 --> 00:19:46.369 Hemisphere, the US still dominates, but Latin 00:19:46.369 --> 00:19:50.549 America increasingly seeks autonomy through organizations 00:19:50.549 --> 00:19:56.289 like CELAC, C -E -L -A -C, formed in 2010 to 00:19:56.289 --> 00:19:59.829 foster regional cooperation. Meanwhile, countries 00:19:59.829 --> 00:20:02.809 like Brazil and Argentina have started leaning 00:20:02.809 --> 00:20:07.049 into expanded BRICS partnerships with China and 00:20:07.049 --> 00:20:11.289 Russia, signaling that Latin America won't always 00:20:11.289 --> 00:20:16.390 align neatly with Washington. Across the Atlantic, 00:20:16.869 --> 00:20:19.930 the growth of Islam is undeniable. With nearly 00:20:19.930 --> 00:20:23.069 2 billion adherents worldwide and demographic 00:20:23.069 --> 00:20:26.369 momentum on its side, Islam is projected by Pew 00:20:26.369 --> 00:20:29.349 Research to become equal in size to Christianity 00:20:29.349 --> 00:20:33.730 by the mid -21st century. From Casablanca to 00:20:33.730 --> 00:20:37.609 Jakarta, its presence is vast and fast -growing, 00:20:38.170 --> 00:20:41.309 accelerated by migration, higher birth rates, 00:20:41.369 --> 00:20:44.849 and diaspora communities globally. In cities 00:20:44.849 --> 00:20:48.849 like London, Paris, and New York, Islam is part 00:20:48.849 --> 00:20:52.470 of the cultural fabric, complicating Huntington's 00:20:52.470 --> 00:20:58.089 neat divisions. That raises a provocative question. 00:20:58.529 --> 00:21:01.690 Are we heading toward convergence, not clash? 00:21:02.490 --> 00:21:06.450 Some speak loosely of Chrislam, pointing to theological 00:21:06.450 --> 00:21:27.549 overlaps between Christianity and Islam. A true 00:21:27.549 --> 00:21:31.170 synthesis seems unlikely, but what is realistic 00:21:31.170 --> 00:21:34.029 is a growing recognition of shared values like 00:21:34.029 --> 00:21:37.819 justice, community, and care for the poor. values 00:21:37.819 --> 00:21:41.200 that might support coexistence if cultivated 00:21:41.200 --> 00:21:45.880 wisely. Still, the future could swing either 00:21:45.880 --> 00:21:50.319 way. Will convergence unfold peacefully or through 00:21:50.319 --> 00:21:54.740 violent friction? Consider Iran. Its backing 00:21:54.740 --> 00:21:57.579 of armed groups from Hezbollah to militias in 00:21:57.579 --> 00:22:01.259 Iraq and Syria fuels ongoing confrontation with 00:22:01.259 --> 00:22:04.779 both the U .S. and Israel. The Gaza war currently 00:22:04.779 --> 00:22:08.099 happening has only deepened these rifts, with 00:22:08.099 --> 00:22:11.440 Iran's influence across the axis of resistance 00:22:11.440 --> 00:22:17.279 more visible than ever. Or look at Turkey under 00:22:17.279 --> 00:22:21.000 President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, often branded 00:22:21.000 --> 00:22:24.819 a neo -Ottoman for his ambitions to restore Turkish 00:22:24.819 --> 00:22:28.359 influence. Erdogan has backed military operations 00:22:28.359 --> 00:22:31.160 in Syria, brokered maritime deals with Libya, 00:22:31.390 --> 00:22:34.809 and expanded Ankara's naval presence in the Eastern 00:22:34.809 --> 00:22:38.150 Mediterranean. His policies secure energy routes 00:22:38.150 --> 00:22:41.569 and project Turkish power deep into Africa. Just 00:22:41.569 --> 00:22:44.210 last year, Turkey signed new defense deals with 00:22:44.210 --> 00:22:47.089 Libya while upgrading economic ties with the 00:22:47.089 --> 00:22:51.009 Gulf states. A blend of rhetoric invoking Ottoman 00:22:51.009 --> 00:22:55.390 legacy and cold strategic leverage. For neighbors 00:22:55.390 --> 00:22:59.750 like Greece and Egypt, this fuels fears of destabilization. 00:23:00.109 --> 00:23:03.390 For Europe, it raises the specter of new clashes 00:23:03.390 --> 00:23:06.529 along the Mediterranean's civilizational scene. 00:23:08.849 --> 00:23:11.769 Here again, the clash of civilizations narrative 00:23:11.769 --> 00:23:15.890 offers one explanation. Erdogan reviving Islamic 00:23:15.890 --> 00:23:19.230 identity in opposition of Europe's Christian 00:23:19.230 --> 00:23:22.589 heritage. But realists like John Mearsheimer 00:23:22.589 --> 00:23:25.529 would say this is less about Islam and Christianity 00:23:25.529 --> 00:23:29.079 and more about Ankara asserting itself as a rising 00:23:29.079 --> 00:23:32.920 middle power. Meanwhile, Joseph Nye would note 00:23:32.920 --> 00:23:36.259 that Turkey also wields soft power—television 00:23:36.259 --> 00:23:39.960 dramas, cultural diplomacy, and trade routes—to 00:23:39.960 --> 00:23:44.880 win influence without war. The lesson is this. 00:23:45.279 --> 00:23:48.400 Huntington's categories capture some fault lines, 00:23:48.559 --> 00:23:51.380 but they flatten the complexity of geopolitics. 00:23:52.160 --> 00:23:55.859 Religion. Culture. Economics. Power politics. 00:23:56.269 --> 00:23:59.730 they're woven together. Whether the future looks 00:23:59.730 --> 00:24:03.150 like blocks in coexistence, selective convergence, 00:24:03.730 --> 00:24:07.390 or repeated conflict, will depend not just on 00:24:07.390 --> 00:24:11.069 civilizations in the abstract, but on leaders, 00:24:11.589 --> 00:24:17.170 alliances, and the choices societies make. But 00:24:17.170 --> 00:24:20.450 also, when then do the Eurasian giants like China 00:24:20.450 --> 00:24:22.589 and Russia fit into this changing landscape? 00:24:23.029 --> 00:24:25.710 Some argue that the United States is in decline, 00:24:25.880 --> 00:24:28.759 while China and Russia are on the rise. But the 00:24:28.759 --> 00:24:32.200 truth is more nuanced. The U .S. faces domestic 00:24:32.200 --> 00:24:35.400 turmoil, political gridlock, and increasing debt. 00:24:35.740 --> 00:24:39.039 Yet it remains a superpower with unmatched global 00:24:39.039 --> 00:24:43.160 reach. Its military alliances through NATO, partnerships 00:24:43.160 --> 00:24:46.900 in Asia, and enduring economic dominance continue 00:24:46.900 --> 00:24:50.779 to anchor the global order. China, meanwhile, 00:24:50.980 --> 00:24:53.960 has rapidly moved into spaces once dominated 00:24:53.960 --> 00:24:57.569 by Washington. In Iraq, Beijing has become a 00:24:57.569 --> 00:25:00.569 major investor, funneling billions into energy 00:25:00.569 --> 00:25:03.710 and infrastructure, while also supplying arms. 00:25:04.369 --> 00:25:07.710 Beyond Iraq, China stunned the world in 2023 00:25:07.710 --> 00:25:10.829 when it successfully mediated a detente between 00:25:10.829 --> 00:25:14.650 Saudi Arabia and Iran, two bitter rivals who 00:25:14.650 --> 00:25:17.369 reopened embassies after years of hostility. 00:25:17.890 --> 00:25:21.690 That deal was more than diplomacy. It symbolized 00:25:21.690 --> 00:25:24.869 Beijing's growing capacity to act where Washington 00:25:24.869 --> 00:25:28.630 could not, and marked a milestone in the shift 00:25:28.630 --> 00:25:33.329 toward multipolarity. Russia, though weakened 00:25:33.329 --> 00:25:36.069 by sanctions and its ongoing war in Ukraine, 00:25:36.569 --> 00:25:39.609 remains a disruptive force. Moscow continues 00:25:39.609 --> 00:25:42.450 to cultivate influence in Africa, where private 00:25:42.450 --> 00:25:45.289 military companies like the Wagner Group left 00:25:45.289 --> 00:25:48.730 their imprint. And it leverages energy exports 00:25:48.730 --> 00:25:52.950 to retain leverage in Europe and Asia. Together, 00:25:53.079 --> 00:25:56.480 China and Russia offer alternatives to US leadership 00:25:56.480 --> 00:26:00.319 through platforms such as the expanded BRICS 00:26:00.319 --> 00:26:03.440 block, which now includes countries like Saudi 00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:09.819 Arabia and Iran. The COVID -19 pandemic accelerated 00:26:09.819 --> 00:26:13.019 these shifts. China and Russia not only managed 00:26:13.019 --> 00:26:16.240 their domestic responses, but exported medical 00:26:16.240 --> 00:26:20.460 supplies, vaccines, and support, generating goodwill 00:26:20.460 --> 00:26:23.789 in parts of Africa, Latin America, and Asia. 00:26:24.490 --> 00:26:27.430 These gestures increased their global visibility 00:26:27.430 --> 00:26:31.049 at a time when Western democracies were consumed 00:26:31.049 --> 00:26:36.549 by internal crises. In parallel, the U .S. has 00:26:36.549 --> 00:26:39.549 often retreated. The Trump administration reduced 00:26:39.549 --> 00:26:42.930 troop levels in Iraq, signaling fatigue with 00:26:42.930 --> 00:26:46.769 forever wars. More recently, debates over U .S. 00:26:46.930 --> 00:26:49.930 global commitments persist. Shaped by domestic 00:26:49.930 --> 00:26:53.930 polarization, and fiscal strain. Political gridlock 00:26:53.930 --> 00:26:57.029 in Congress has repeatedly pushed the government 00:26:57.029 --> 00:27:00.210 into the brink of shutdown, damaging Washington's 00:27:00.210 --> 00:27:03.829 reputation for reliability. In an interconnected 00:27:03.829 --> 00:27:08.269 economy, these domestic dramas reverberate worldwide. 00:27:10.690 --> 00:27:14.930 So, looking to 2025 and beyond, economic realities 00:27:14.930 --> 00:27:18.609 remain central. According to the Economist Intelligence 00:27:18.609 --> 00:27:22.500 Unit, U .S. GDP growth is projected to slow to 00:27:22.500 --> 00:27:27.400 1 .4 % in the rest of 2025, down from 2 .4 % 00:27:27.400 --> 00:27:32.319 in 2024, while global GDP is expected to average 00:27:32.319 --> 00:27:37.019 2 .6 % growth over the next five years. Interest 00:27:37.019 --> 00:27:40.500 rate cuts may support households, but high debt 00:27:40.500 --> 00:27:44.319 levels and partisan budget fights risks undermining 00:27:44.319 --> 00:27:47.559 stability. Meanwhile, U .S. competition with 00:27:47.559 --> 00:27:51.910 China across trade, AI, energy supply chains, 00:27:52.369 --> 00:27:55.450 and military posture in the Indo -Pacific will 00:27:55.450 --> 00:28:00.910 remain the defining rivalry of this era. All 00:28:00.910 --> 00:28:04.130 of this leads us back to Huntington. He foresaw 00:28:04.130 --> 00:28:07.029 civilizations clashing along cultural lines, 00:28:07.049 --> 00:28:10.190 but what we see today is something more complex. 00:28:11.230 --> 00:28:15.029 Yes, identity and religion matters, but so do 00:28:15.029 --> 00:28:18.809 power politics, energy resources, soft power, 00:28:19.470 --> 00:28:22.569 and technological competition. As critics like 00:28:22.569 --> 00:28:25.950 John Mearsheimer remind us, states pursue security 00:28:25.950 --> 00:28:30.009 through power, while Joseph Nye emphasizes networks, 00:28:30.630 --> 00:28:35.049 culture, and alliances. The world of 2025 looks 00:28:35.049 --> 00:28:38.349 less like a single civilizational clash and more 00:28:38.349 --> 00:28:42.069 like a multipolar contest. Messy, overlapping, 00:28:42.970 --> 00:28:47.430 uncertain. So, in this first part, we've unpacked 00:28:47.430 --> 00:28:50.470 Huntington's Clash of Civilizations theory, explored 00:28:50.470 --> 00:28:53.509 its historical context, and measured it against 00:28:53.509 --> 00:28:56.450 the messy realities of our interconnected world. 00:28:56.990 --> 00:29:00.509 But this is just the beginning. Stay tuned for 00:29:00.509 --> 00:29:03.130 part two of Diplomacy and Discourse. Don't forget 00:29:03.130 --> 00:29:05.990 to like, subscribe, and put a comment down below. 00:29:06.750 --> 00:29:09.349 Let's keep unraveling this tapestry of power, 00:29:09.650 --> 00:29:12.109 culture, and politics together.