WEBVTT 00:00:00.769 --> 00:00:04.509 Welcome to episode 11, part 3 of our ongoing 00:00:04.509 --> 00:00:07.169 series on power politics here on Diplomacy and 00:00:07.169 --> 00:00:09.609 Discourse channel. In our last two episodes, 00:00:09.669 --> 00:00:11.910 we tracked the evolution of power from ancient 00:00:11.910 --> 00:00:14.669 empires and medieval monarchs to the World Wars 00:00:14.669 --> 00:00:17.750 and Cold War superpowers, and finally into the 00:00:17.750 --> 00:00:20.649 post -Cold War landscape shaped by globalization, 00:00:21.329 --> 00:00:25.530 diplomacy, and resurgent nationalism. Now in 00:00:25.530 --> 00:00:28.670 part 3, we step into the present. Today's world 00:00:28.670 --> 00:00:31.399 may be more interconnected. but it's also more 00:00:31.399 --> 00:00:34.240 volatile, with regional conflicts revealing just 00:00:34.240 --> 00:00:37.859 how alive, and dangerous, power politics remains. 00:00:39.380 --> 00:00:41.859 We will begin with Ukraine, where Russia's invasion 00:00:41.859 --> 00:00:44.240 has shattered assumptions about European security 00:00:44.240 --> 00:00:47.719 and exposed the limits of deterrence. Then, we'll 00:00:47.719 --> 00:00:50.579 turn to the South China Sea, where China's expansionism 00:00:50.579 --> 00:00:53.320 and US naval strategy reflect a high -stakes 00:00:53.320 --> 00:00:56.420 power contest in the Indo -Pacific. And finally, 00:00:56.880 --> 00:00:59.640 we'll examine the Middle East. where Iran, Saudi 00:00:59.640 --> 00:01:02.600 Arabia, and Israel each pursue dominance through 00:01:02.600 --> 00:01:05.680 shifting alliances, proxy warfare, and energy 00:01:05.680 --> 00:01:08.859 diplomacy. These aren't just isolated crises. 00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:12.180 They are battlegrounds for global influence. 00:01:14.939 --> 00:01:17.840 Russia's latest moves underscores its commitment 00:01:17.840 --> 00:01:20.400 to maintaining and expanding its regional influence, 00:01:20.760 --> 00:01:23.620 especially in response to NATO's growth. The 00:01:23.620 --> 00:01:26.459 war in Ukraine is still a major priority. Russia 00:01:26.459 --> 00:01:28.859 wants international recognition of the territories 00:01:28.859 --> 00:01:31.599 it's taken, like Crimea and parts of eastern 00:01:31.599 --> 00:01:34.340 Ukraine, and uses arguments about protecting 00:01:34.340 --> 00:01:36.739 Russian -speaking communities to justify its 00:01:36.739 --> 00:01:39.519 presence. The Kremlin continues to present this 00:01:39.519 --> 00:01:41.819 as a matter of national security rather than 00:01:41.819 --> 00:01:44.879 aggression, painting itself as reacting to NATO's 00:01:44.879 --> 00:01:49.439 advance rather than initiating conflict. Its 00:01:49.439 --> 00:01:52.599 concern over NATO expansion has only grown. especially 00:01:52.599 --> 00:01:55.219 now that Finland and Sweden have officially joined 00:01:55.219 --> 00:01:58.280 the alliance. To counter this, Russia has been 00:01:58.280 --> 00:02:00.700 increasing its military buildup along its western 00:02:00.700 --> 00:02:04.359 border, especially near Finland. Satellite images 00:02:04.359 --> 00:02:07.620 show new bases and installations going up, which 00:02:07.620 --> 00:02:10.659 experts see as preparation to reinforce Russia's 00:02:10.659 --> 00:02:13.939 posture in the region, should tensions escalate. 00:02:15.520 --> 00:02:18.400 Meanwhile, the Arctic is becoming another stage 00:02:18.400 --> 00:02:21.930 for power politics. As melting ice opens up new 00:02:21.930 --> 00:02:24.530 trade routes and resource opportunities, Russia 00:02:24.530 --> 00:02:26.789 is boosting its surveillance and deploying drones 00:02:26.789 --> 00:02:29.909 to claim its share of influence. This move hasn't 00:02:29.909 --> 00:02:32.569 gone unnoticed. NATO countries are stepping up 00:02:32.569 --> 00:02:35.590 their own Arctic operations, signaling the beginning 00:02:35.590 --> 00:02:40.110 of a new strategic race in the far north. Russia 00:02:40.110 --> 00:02:43.009 justifies its broader foreign policy by leaning 00:02:43.009 --> 00:02:46.610 on the idea of historical ties. It claims that 00:02:46.610 --> 00:02:49.090 former Soviet states and regions with ethnic 00:02:49.090 --> 00:02:51.879 Russians fall naturally within its sphere of 00:02:51.879 --> 00:02:54.919 influence. So when these neighbors move toward 00:02:54.919 --> 00:02:58.659 NATO or the EU, the Kremlin sees it as a provocation. 00:02:59.340 --> 00:03:02.379 That's how it justifies military action, election 00:03:02.379 --> 00:03:05.400 interference, and energy coercion, presenting 00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:08.539 them as defensive tactics against Western encroachment. 00:03:10.919 --> 00:03:13.580 At the heart of it, Russia's playbook is a mix 00:03:13.580 --> 00:03:16.520 of old -school hard power and modern hybrid tactics. 00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:19.759 It uses everything, from tanks to cyber attacks, 00:03:20.060 --> 00:03:22.360 to keep its neighbors within reach and to push 00:03:22.360 --> 00:03:25.000 back against what it sees as a US -led world 00:03:25.000 --> 00:03:29.460 order. The United States has consistently used 00:03:29.460 --> 00:03:32.360 diplomatic, economic sanctions, and strategic 00:03:32.360 --> 00:03:35.419 alliances to maintain its global role and influence. 00:03:36.240 --> 00:03:38.919 This mix of tools is designed to enforce international 00:03:38.919 --> 00:03:42.139 norms, protect US interests, and respond to global 00:03:42.139 --> 00:03:44.780 instability without always resorting to military 00:03:44.780 --> 00:03:49.210 force. A clear example is the U .S. response 00:03:49.210 --> 00:03:53.150 to Belarus in 2020. After President Lukashenko's 00:03:53.150 --> 00:03:55.889 widely contested reelection and violent crackdowns 00:03:55.889 --> 00:03:58.629 on protesters, the U .S. quickly sanctioned top 00:03:58.629 --> 00:04:02.229 Belarusian officials. These included asset freezes 00:04:02.229 --> 00:04:04.849 and travel bans aimed at signaling that human 00:04:04.849 --> 00:04:07.849 rights violations would not be tolerated. That 00:04:07.849 --> 00:04:10.909 kind of quick, targeted economic pressure is 00:04:10.909 --> 00:04:13.030 a signature part of the U .S. foreign policy 00:04:13.030 --> 00:04:17.589 toolbox. But this approach hasn't been evenly 00:04:17.589 --> 00:04:20.110 applied, and many countries have called out the 00:04:20.110 --> 00:04:22.670 US for double standards, especially regarding 00:04:22.670 --> 00:04:26.089 Israel. Despite credible reports from organizations 00:04:26.089 --> 00:04:28.629 and media outlets alleging that certain Israeli 00:04:28.629 --> 00:04:31.269 military units have committed human rights violations 00:04:31.269 --> 00:04:33.990 against Palestinians, the Biden administration 00:04:33.990 --> 00:04:37.449 stopped short of imposing any sanctions. Even 00:04:37.449 --> 00:04:40.050 after acknowledging those concerns, it chose 00:04:40.050 --> 00:04:43.350 not to penalize the Israeli units. likely due 00:04:43.350 --> 00:04:46.670 to long -standing political, military, and strategic 00:04:46.670 --> 00:04:49.629 ties between the two countries. This has sparked 00:04:49.629 --> 00:04:51.810 frustration across the Middle East and among 00:04:51.810 --> 00:04:54.670 human rights observers who argue that such selective 00:04:54.670 --> 00:04:59.750 enforcement undercuts U .S. credibility. This 00:04:59.750 --> 00:05:02.610 kind of inconsistency feeds the broader narrative 00:05:02.610 --> 00:05:05.509 that U .S. foreign policy is often shaped more 00:05:05.509 --> 00:05:08.730 by strategic interests than by a principled defense 00:05:08.730 --> 00:05:12.019 of human rights. Many countries see it as the 00:05:12.019 --> 00:05:14.860 U .S. shielding allies from consequences while 00:05:14.860 --> 00:05:19.139 swiftly punishing adversaries. Beyond sanctions, 00:05:19.480 --> 00:05:22.120 the U .S. also uses military presence and foreign 00:05:22.120 --> 00:05:25.040 aid to reinforce its influence, especially in 00:05:25.040 --> 00:05:28.319 regions where Russia is active. Providing security 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:31.279 assistance to countries bordering Russia, coordinating 00:05:31.279 --> 00:05:34.620 sanctions with NATO and EU partners, and investing 00:05:34.620 --> 00:05:37.079 in local development efforts are all part of 00:05:37.079 --> 00:05:40.100 this playbook. These moves are intended not just 00:05:40.100 --> 00:05:42.720 to deter aggression, but also to prevent rival 00:05:42.720 --> 00:05:45.939 powers from gaining a stronger foothold. Many 00:05:45.939 --> 00:05:48.980 countries see it as the US shielding allies from 00:05:48.980 --> 00:05:51.959 consequences while swiftly punishing allies. 00:05:53.579 --> 00:05:56.660 Beyond sanctions, the US also uses military presence 00:05:56.660 --> 00:06:00.160 and foreign aid to reinforce its influence, especially 00:06:00.160 --> 00:06:03.019 in regions where Russia is active. Providing 00:06:03.019 --> 00:06:05.680 security assistance to countries bordering Russia 00:06:05.879 --> 00:06:08.500 coordinating sanctions with NATO and EU partners, 00:06:09.019 --> 00:06:11.259 and investing in local development efforts are 00:06:11.259 --> 00:06:14.259 all part of this playbook. These moves are intended 00:06:14.259 --> 00:06:16.759 not just to deter aggression, but to prevent 00:06:16.759 --> 00:06:19.600 rival powers from gaining a stronger foothold. 00:06:21.620 --> 00:06:24.399 Still, whether these tools actually produce the 00:06:24.399 --> 00:06:27.300 intended outcomes—lasting stability, economic 00:06:27.300 --> 00:06:30.079 reforms, or deterrence—remains up for debates. 00:06:30.439 --> 00:06:33.620 Critics argue that inconsistent application undermines 00:06:33.620 --> 00:06:36.439 trust and that sanctions alone often don't change 00:06:36.439 --> 00:06:39.500 a regime's behavior. But the US continues to 00:06:39.500 --> 00:06:42.420 rely on them because they remain a low -cost, 00:06:42.720 --> 00:06:45.480 high -visibility way to project power without 00:06:45.480 --> 00:06:51.620 deploying troops. The return of spheres of influence 00:06:51.620 --> 00:06:54.300 as a geopolitical concept has stirred intense 00:06:54.300 --> 00:06:57.000 debate in the wake of Russia's full -scale invasion 00:06:57.000 --> 00:07:01.220 of Ukraine. The idea... that powerful states 00:07:01.220 --> 00:07:04.220 are entitled to control or heavily influence 00:07:04.220 --> 00:07:06.660 their neighbors to preserve strategic interests 00:07:06.660 --> 00:07:09.500 was largely considered outdated after the Cold 00:07:09.500 --> 00:07:13.779 War. But Russia's behavior framed by its leaders 00:07:13.779 --> 00:07:16.560 as a defensive response to NATO's eastward expansion 00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:19.899 has revived the theory with alarming consequences. 00:07:21.379 --> 00:07:24.449 By attacking Ukraine, Russia effectively signaled 00:07:24.449 --> 00:07:27.689 that it sees its near abroad as a zone of influence 00:07:27.689 --> 00:07:31.050 that must remain under Moscow's sway. This has 00:07:31.050 --> 00:07:33.189 shattered assumptions in the West that sovereignty 00:07:33.189 --> 00:07:36.129 and territorial integrity are settled norms. 00:07:37.050 --> 00:07:40.470 Instead, Russia's strategy invokes a 19th and 00:07:40.470 --> 00:07:43.629 early 20th century mindset of great power privilege, 00:07:44.329 --> 00:07:46.509 where influence is asserted through coercion 00:07:46.509 --> 00:07:50.089 and proximity rather than diplomacy and law. 00:07:51.639 --> 00:07:54.600 The international community, particularly NATO 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:57.759 and the EU, has pushed back hard against this 00:07:57.759 --> 00:08:01.720 logic. Their military support for Ukraine, sanctions 00:08:01.720 --> 00:08:04.300 on Moscow, and renewed defense commitments to 00:08:04.300 --> 00:08:07.120 Eastern NATO members are not just acts of solidarity. 00:08:07.439 --> 00:08:09.839 They are meant to reaffirm that borders cannot 00:08:09.839 --> 00:08:13.560 be changed by force. These moves represent an 00:08:13.560 --> 00:08:15.879 effort to defend the liberal international order, 00:08:16.279 --> 00:08:19.100 where states, regardless of size, have the right 00:08:19.100 --> 00:08:22.519 to chart their own paths free from external domination. 00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:26.980 That said, the discourse is more nuanced than 00:08:26.980 --> 00:08:30.480 just rejection. Some realists argue that ignoring 00:08:30.480 --> 00:08:33.460 Russia's sense of strategic vulnerability, especially 00:08:33.460 --> 00:08:36.440 regarding Ukraine and NATO, was short -sighted. 00:08:36.799 --> 00:08:40.000 But even among those circles, few defend spheres 00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:42.600 of influence as a justifiable principle in the 00:08:42.600 --> 00:08:45.899 21st century. The widespread consensus remains 00:08:45.899 --> 00:08:48.600 that accepting such a model would destabilize 00:08:48.600 --> 00:08:51.980 global order and legitimize the behavior of authoritarian 00:08:51.980 --> 00:08:56.620 powers seeking to rewrite the rules. The war 00:08:56.620 --> 00:08:59.399 in Ukraine has therefore become more than a regional 00:08:59.399 --> 00:09:02.820 conflict. It is a test case for whether the post 00:09:02.820 --> 00:09:06.220 -1945 international system, based on sovereignty 00:09:06.220 --> 00:09:09.139 and legal norms, can survive in the face of revisionist 00:09:09.139 --> 00:09:12.500 powers. Whether or not the West can uphold these 00:09:12.500 --> 00:09:15.539 principles, without sliding into open great power 00:09:15.539 --> 00:09:18.419 conflict, will shape the global order for decades 00:09:18.419 --> 00:09:24.179 to come. Former U .S. President Joe Biden's approach 00:09:24.179 --> 00:09:27.039 to the Ukraine conflict has been widely recognized 00:09:27.039 --> 00:09:29.759 for its emphasis on diplomacy, international 00:09:29.759 --> 00:09:32.639 cooperation, and support for democratic institutions. 00:09:33.399 --> 00:09:35.940 His administration's strategy involved rallying 00:09:35.940 --> 00:09:38.559 a broad coalition of allies to impose sanctions 00:09:38.559 --> 00:09:41.620 on Russia. providing substantial military and 00:09:41.620 --> 00:09:44.480 humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and reinforcing 00:09:44.480 --> 00:09:47.720 NATO's eastern flank. This multilateral response 00:09:47.720 --> 00:09:50.659 was seen as a significant achievement in US foreign 00:09:50.659 --> 00:09:53.399 policy, aiming to uphold international norms 00:09:53.399 --> 00:09:58.480 and deter further aggression. In contrast, President 00:09:58.480 --> 00:10:00.539 Donald Trump's foreign policy was characterized 00:10:00.539 --> 00:10:03.480 by a more unilateral America First approach. 00:10:04.340 --> 00:10:06.899 While he did impose sanctions on Russia and provide 00:10:06.899 --> 00:10:10.039 military aid to Ukraine, his administration often 00:10:10.039 --> 00:10:12.340 sent mixed signals regarding U .S. commitment 00:10:12.340 --> 00:10:15.740 to allies and international agreements. Trump's 00:10:15.740 --> 00:10:18.539 rhetoric sometimes appeared sympathetic to Russian 00:10:18.539 --> 00:10:21.679 perspective, leading to concerns among European 00:10:21.679 --> 00:10:24.480 partners about the reliability of U .S. support. 00:10:25.840 --> 00:10:27.919 Had Trump's policies been in place during the 00:10:27.919 --> 00:10:30.419 escalation of the Ukraine conflict, analysts 00:10:30.419 --> 00:10:33.059 suggest that the lack of a cohesive and coordinated 00:10:33.059 --> 00:10:35.460 international response might have emboldened 00:10:35.460 --> 00:10:38.080 further aggression potentially leading to a more 00:10:38.080 --> 00:10:41.320 severe crisis. The Biden administration's focus 00:10:41.320 --> 00:10:43.720 on alliance -building and collective action has 00:10:43.720 --> 00:10:46.080 been credited with strengthening the international 00:10:46.080 --> 00:10:48.539 community's ability to respond effectively to 00:10:48.539 --> 00:10:52.399 the situation. In summary, Biden's handling of 00:10:52.399 --> 00:10:54.759 the Ukraine conflict underscored the importance 00:10:54.759 --> 00:10:57.860 of diplomatic engagement and multilateral cooperation 00:10:57.860 --> 00:11:01.519 in addressing global security challenges, contrasting 00:11:01.519 --> 00:11:04.039 with the more isolationist tendencies observed 00:11:04.039 --> 00:11:09.639 during Trump's first tenure. The United States 00:11:09.639 --> 00:11:12.340 is actively using power politics in the South 00:11:12.340 --> 00:11:15.159 China Sea to push back against China's growing 00:11:15.159 --> 00:11:18.539 maritime ambitions. Rather than relying on one 00:11:18.539 --> 00:11:21.679 approach, the US combines hard power, strategic 00:11:21.679 --> 00:11:24.379 partnerships, and diplomacy to shape the balance 00:11:24.379 --> 00:11:28.600 of power in the region. Freedom of Navigation 00:11:28.600 --> 00:11:32.899 Operations, FONOP, are a cornerstone of this 00:11:32.899 --> 00:11:36.120 strategy. These missions are more than symbolic. 00:11:36.379 --> 00:11:38.779 They are legal challenges to China's sweeping 00:11:38.779 --> 00:11:42.320 territorial claims. When the USS Preble sailed 00:11:42.320 --> 00:11:45.539 near the Spratly Islands in December 2024, it 00:11:45.539 --> 00:11:48.500 wasn't just about presence. It was about reinforcing 00:11:48.500 --> 00:11:51.159 that international waters can't be turned into 00:11:51.159 --> 00:11:55.419 exclusive zones by force. These operations send 00:11:55.419 --> 00:11:58.379 a direct message that the U .S. won't recognize 00:11:58.379 --> 00:12:01.259 China's attempt to redraw maritime boundaries. 00:12:02.700 --> 00:12:05.840 The U .S. has also deepened military cooperation 00:12:05.840 --> 00:12:08.360 with countries that share concerns over China's 00:12:08.360 --> 00:12:11.919 assertiveness. Exercises like Balikatan with 00:12:11.919 --> 00:12:14.679 the Philippines and trilateral naval drills with 00:12:14.679 --> 00:12:18.440 Japan and Australia show a clear regional alignment. 00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:21.820 These aren't just training events. They're public 00:12:21.820 --> 00:12:24.379 signals that China's neighbors are willing to 00:12:24.379 --> 00:12:27.500 coordinate militarily to resist coercion. That 00:12:27.500 --> 00:12:30.019 kind of unity is key to deterring aggressive 00:12:30.019 --> 00:12:34.320 moves without triggering conflict. Beyond the 00:12:34.320 --> 00:12:37.559 drills, the U .S. ensures its forces are ready 00:12:37.559 --> 00:12:42.440 to respond. The May 2025 elephant walk at Kadena 00:12:42.440 --> 00:12:46.000 Air Base involving over 50 aircraft was a show 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:48.960 of force that demonstrated speed, scale, and 00:12:48.960 --> 00:12:51.279 readiness to operate in contested environments. 00:12:52.220 --> 00:12:54.879 It reminded both allies and rivals that U .S. 00:12:55.059 --> 00:12:57.419 power projection in the Indo -Pacific remains 00:12:57.419 --> 00:13:02.139 strong and flexible. Diplomatically, the U .S. 00:13:02.600 --> 00:13:04.960 continues to engage in forums and trilateral 00:13:04.960 --> 00:13:08.399 talks to promote rules -based order. By working 00:13:08.399 --> 00:13:11.580 through ASEAN, the Quad, and other platforms, 00:13:12.240 --> 00:13:14.679 Washington pushes for peaceful dispute resolutions 00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:17.659 and adherence to international law, particularly 00:13:17.659 --> 00:13:20.700 the United Nations Convention on the Law of the 00:13:20.700 --> 00:13:25.519 Seas, UNCLOS, even though the U .S. itself hasn't 00:13:25.519 --> 00:13:29.480 ratified it. All of these actions are part of 00:13:29.480 --> 00:13:32.740 a broader power politics play, maintaining influence, 00:13:33.080 --> 00:13:35.480 supporting allies, and preventing China from 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:38.740 unilaterally changing the status quo. It's about 00:13:38.740 --> 00:13:41.559 shaping the rules of the region, not just reacting 00:13:41.559 --> 00:13:44.799 to violations. And it reflects how modern power 00:13:44.799 --> 00:13:47.659 politics involves more than just conflicts. It's 00:13:47.659 --> 00:13:50.360 about shaping perceptions, building coalitions, 00:13:50.879 --> 00:13:53.679 and reinforcing legal norms with credible force. 00:13:56.740 --> 00:14:00.259 Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel are each navigating 00:14:00.259 --> 00:14:03.200 the Middle East's power dynamics with very different 00:14:03.200 --> 00:14:06.799 playbooks, all aiming to secure influence, resources, 00:14:07.539 --> 00:14:11.700 and strategic depth. Iran uses a shadow network 00:14:11.700 --> 00:14:14.360 of proxy forces to assert control without putting 00:14:14.360 --> 00:14:17.600 boots on the ground. Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed 00:14:17.600 --> 00:14:20.259 groups in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen all 00:14:20.259 --> 00:14:23.580 serve as Tehran's regional levers. This kind 00:14:23.580 --> 00:14:26.259 of indirect engagement lets Iran steer conflict, 00:14:26.639 --> 00:14:29.419 pressure rivals, and shape local politics while 00:14:29.419 --> 00:14:32.159 officially denying involvement. It's cheaper 00:14:32.159 --> 00:14:34.799 than full -scale war and harder to retaliate 00:14:34.799 --> 00:14:37.840 against. Iran's economic strategy also centers 00:14:37.840 --> 00:14:41.879 on oil and gas. Despite sanctions, it continues 00:14:41.879 --> 00:14:44.539 to find buyers and partners, particularly in 00:14:44.539 --> 00:14:47.399 Asia, using energy exports to fund its regional 00:14:47.399 --> 00:14:50.080 ambitions and maintain ties with sympathetic 00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:55.559 regimes. Saudi Arabia, in contrast, plays a more 00:14:55.559 --> 00:14:58.340 conventional statecraft game. It's the leader 00:14:58.340 --> 00:15:01.179 of a Gulf bloc that counters Iran through formal 00:15:01.179 --> 00:15:04.500 alliances and regional coalitions. In Yemen, 00:15:04.720 --> 00:15:07.559 it's led a years -long campaign against the Iranian 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:09.799 -backed Houthis to defend its southern border 00:15:09.799 --> 00:15:12.240 and preserve influence in the Arabian Peninsula. 00:15:13.240 --> 00:15:16.679 Its partnerships with the UAE, Egypt, and increasingly 00:15:16.679 --> 00:15:19.620 with Israel show how Saudi Arabia is trying to 00:15:19.620 --> 00:15:23.720 cement a counter -Iran front. Economically, Riyadh 00:15:23.720 --> 00:15:26.700 uses oil not just as income, but as leverage. 00:15:27.460 --> 00:15:30.600 OPEC plus decisions on oil supply, often coordinated 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:33.720 with Russia, give Saudi Arabia a major role in 00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:36.600 shaping global energy prices and securing strategic 00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:41.419 favors. Israel focuses on tech, intelligence, 00:15:41.700 --> 00:15:44.519 and surgical military power. It doesn't rely 00:15:44.519 --> 00:15:47.480 on proxies or coalitions as much as it does on 00:15:47.480 --> 00:15:50.059 its unmatched intelligence network and precision 00:15:50.059 --> 00:15:53.730 strikes. Its airstrikes in Syria target Iranian 00:15:53.730 --> 00:15:56.769 weapons transfers, while cyber capabilities give 00:15:56.769 --> 00:16:00.090 it an edge in digital warfare. Israel also counts 00:16:00.090 --> 00:16:02.250 on its relationship with the United States for 00:16:02.250 --> 00:16:05.289 military aid, diplomatic backing, and defense 00:16:05.289 --> 00:16:08.889 cooperation. And recently, it's built stronger 00:16:08.889 --> 00:16:11.970 ties with Gulf countries like the UAE and Bahrain 00:16:11.970 --> 00:16:15.250 through the Abraham Accords, reshaping regional 00:16:15.250 --> 00:16:19.570 alliances. These three powers are all competing 00:16:19.570 --> 00:16:23.029 for control, influence, and survival in a consistently 00:16:23.029 --> 00:16:25.669 shifting landscape. Their approaches reflect 00:16:25.669 --> 00:16:28.350 their strengths, whether it's Iran's asymmetric 00:16:28.350 --> 00:16:31.029 tactics, Saudi Arabia's wealth and diplomacy, 00:16:31.549 --> 00:16:35.250 or Israel's tech -driven military edge. And as 00:16:35.250 --> 00:16:37.870 new developments unfold, from shifting U .S. 00:16:38.190 --> 00:16:40.789 policy to rising Chinese involvement, each of 00:16:40.789 --> 00:16:43.509 them is recalibrating how to keep or gain ground 00:16:43.509 --> 00:16:46.070 in one of the world's most volatile regions. 00:16:49.159 --> 00:16:52.039 Recent escalations between Israel and the Houthis 00:16:52.039 --> 00:16:54.860 is a textbook example of power politics playing 00:16:54.860 --> 00:16:58.179 out in real time. Both sides are using military 00:16:58.179 --> 00:17:01.019 force not just for defense or retaliation, but 00:17:01.019 --> 00:17:03.799 to make a statement about influence, deterrence, 00:17:04.380 --> 00:17:08.799 and dominance in the region. The Houthis, supported 00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:11.500 by Iran, are no longer just a domestic force 00:17:11.500 --> 00:17:14.309 in Yemen. Launching a long -range drone strike 00:17:14.309 --> 00:17:17.250 on Tel Aviv shows they're trying to elevate their 00:17:17.250 --> 00:17:20.410 role as a regional actor and demonstrate capability 00:17:20.410 --> 00:17:23.930 far beyond their borders. That drone strike wasn't 00:17:23.930 --> 00:17:26.509 just an act of war. It was a calculated move 00:17:26.509 --> 00:17:29.210 to disrupt the balance of power, show solidarity 00:17:29.210 --> 00:17:32.470 with Iran and its axis of resistance, and test 00:17:32.470 --> 00:17:36.230 Israel's defenses. By hitting a major Israeli 00:17:36.230 --> 00:17:38.609 city, they're sending a message that they're 00:17:38.609 --> 00:17:41.619 part of the broader geopolitical fight. not just 00:17:41.619 --> 00:17:46.019 the war in Yemen. Israel's counterattack wasn't 00:17:46.019 --> 00:17:49.339 just about taking out missile depots. It was 00:17:49.339 --> 00:17:52.099 about projecting strength and restoring deterrence. 00:17:53.240 --> 00:17:55.700 Operation Outstretched Arm was designed to show 00:17:55.700 --> 00:17:58.660 that Israel is willing and able to strike beyond 00:17:58.660 --> 00:18:00.980 its immediate neighborhood if it feels threatened. 00:18:01.700 --> 00:18:04.599 It's also a signal to Iran and any proxy actors 00:18:04.599 --> 00:18:07.380 that attacks on Israeli soil will trigger overwhelming 00:18:07.380 --> 00:18:10.299 retaliation, even across international borders. 00:18:11.660 --> 00:18:14.519 What makes this a clear case of power politics 00:18:14.519 --> 00:18:17.319 is how the conflict isn't just about Israel versus 00:18:17.319 --> 00:18:21.240 the Houthis. It's about Israel versus Iran, Saudi 00:18:21.240 --> 00:18:24.220 Arabia versus Iran, and the shifting alliances 00:18:24.220 --> 00:18:27.359 in the Middle East. The Houthis are acting on 00:18:27.359 --> 00:18:29.940 behalf of a broader Iranian strategy to project 00:18:29.940 --> 00:18:33.240 influence through non -state actors. Israel is 00:18:33.240 --> 00:18:35.559 responding as part of a strategic calculus to 00:18:35.559 --> 00:18:38.819 maintain military superiority and signal deterrence 00:18:38.819 --> 00:18:42.400 to all its adversaries. not just the one directly 00:18:42.400 --> 00:18:47.240 involved. This back and forth also disrupts shipping 00:18:47.240 --> 00:18:50.400 routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, so it's 00:18:50.400 --> 00:18:53.779 not just a military tit for tat. It's affecting 00:18:53.779 --> 00:18:57.140 global trade, oil flows, and U .S. strategic 00:18:57.140 --> 00:19:00.259 planning in the region. The conflict isn't isolated. 00:19:00.740 --> 00:19:03.539 It's part of a much larger chessboard where force, 00:19:03.839 --> 00:19:06.619 alliances, and strategic messaging are being 00:19:06.619 --> 00:19:08.720 used to shape the future of the Middle East. 00:19:08.890 --> 00:19:15.509 and Nass power politics at work. The U .S. and 00:19:15.509 --> 00:19:18.130 Russia are still deeply entrenched in Middle 00:19:18.130 --> 00:19:20.970 East power politics, each using different levers 00:19:20.970 --> 00:19:23.750 to maintain influence and respond to shifting 00:19:23.750 --> 00:19:28.829 dynamics. The U .S. under Trump's current presidency 00:19:28.829 --> 00:19:31.529 has shifted gears towards economic deals and 00:19:31.529 --> 00:19:34.460 strategic diplomacy. One of the biggest surprises 00:19:34.460 --> 00:19:37.200 was Trump's announcement to lift sanctions on 00:19:37.200 --> 00:19:40.980 Syria after a change in its leadership. A major 00:19:40.980 --> 00:19:45.599 shift in US posture. That move wasn't just about 00:19:45.599 --> 00:19:48.759 Syria. It's a way for the US to reassert itself 00:19:48.759 --> 00:19:51.240 in a part of the region where Russian and Iranian 00:19:51.240 --> 00:19:54.519 influence has grown. Trump also secured a massive 00:19:54.519 --> 00:19:57.359 $300 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia, 00:19:57.799 --> 00:20:00.160 which reinforces Washington's economic ties with 00:20:00.160 --> 00:20:02.799 the Gulf and aims to anchor regional stability 00:20:02.799 --> 00:20:07.759 through trade and defensive deals. Trump's broader 00:20:07.759 --> 00:20:10.660 strategy includes encouraging more Arab -Israeli 00:20:10.660 --> 00:20:13.900 normalization, essentially trying to stitch together 00:20:13.900 --> 00:20:16.859 a pro -U .S. coalition in the region. But the 00:20:16.859 --> 00:20:20.240 ongoing Gaza war has made that difficult. Saudi 00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:22.700 Arabia has hesitated to move forward with formal 00:20:22.700 --> 00:20:25.400 recognition of Israel without serious progress 00:20:25.400 --> 00:20:28.480 on Palestinian statehood. showing how regional 00:20:28.480 --> 00:20:32.000 tensions continue to complicate American ambitions. 00:20:34.059 --> 00:20:37.019 Russia, meanwhile, sticks to its strengths, military 00:20:37.019 --> 00:20:40.400 presence, and reliable alliances. Its role in 00:20:40.400 --> 00:20:42.900 Syria remains central to its Middle East strategy. 00:20:43.460 --> 00:20:46.299 By propping up Assad during the Civil War, Russia 00:20:46.299 --> 00:20:49.059 locked in a long -term military and political 00:20:49.059 --> 00:20:52.569 foothold. It has also deepened defense partnerships 00:20:52.569 --> 00:20:55.589 through arms sales and joint military training 00:20:55.589 --> 00:20:58.849 with regional governments. Moscow doesn't need 00:20:58.849 --> 00:21:01.869 to compete economically with Washington. It's 00:21:01.869 --> 00:21:04.349 focused on showing it can offer security and 00:21:04.349 --> 00:21:10.029 regime survival to its allies. Iran operates 00:21:10.029 --> 00:21:13.069 differently. Rather than relying on direct military 00:21:13.069 --> 00:21:15.990 power or diplomacy, it expands its reach through 00:21:15.990 --> 00:21:19.529 proxy groups. Hezbollah in Lebanon militias in 00:21:19.529 --> 00:21:22.529 Iraq, and forces in Syria and Yemen give Iran 00:21:22.529 --> 00:21:25.089 regional debt without exposing it to full -scale 00:21:25.089 --> 00:21:29.029 war. This low -cost, high -impact strategy is 00:21:29.029 --> 00:21:31.470 designed to pressure Israel, challenge U .S. 00:21:31.970 --> 00:21:34.829 interests, and keep Iran central in any future 00:21:34.829 --> 00:21:39.630 regional order. Adding to the complexity is the 00:21:39.630 --> 00:21:42.410 rise of a multipolar Middle East. Countries like 00:21:42.410 --> 00:21:45.190 China are expanding their footprint, not through 00:21:45.190 --> 00:21:47.829 bases or troops, but through infrastructure deals, 00:21:48.009 --> 00:21:50.809 tech investments, and diplomatic initiatives. 00:21:52.210 --> 00:21:54.650 Many Middle Eastern governments are now hedging 00:21:54.650 --> 00:21:57.589 their bets. Instead of choosing between Washington 00:21:57.589 --> 00:22:01.069 and Moscow, or Tehran, they're building relationships 00:22:01.069 --> 00:22:05.170 with all three, and with Beijing too. This multi 00:22:05.170 --> 00:22:07.950 -alignment trend makes the region's power politics 00:22:07.950 --> 00:22:13.089 more competitive and unpredictable. These overlapping 00:22:13.089 --> 00:22:16.250 agendas and rivalries mean the Middle East is 00:22:16.250 --> 00:22:19.549 no longer a playground dominated by one or two 00:22:19.549 --> 00:22:22.809 global powers. It's a shifting arena where economic 00:22:22.809 --> 00:22:26.410 deals, military alliances, proxy conflicts, and 00:22:26.410 --> 00:22:29.250 diplomatic maneuvering all collide in real time. 00:22:29.789 --> 00:22:32.329 Power politics isn't just alive, it's evolving 00:22:32.329 --> 00:22:37.609 fast. This synthesis captures the core tension 00:22:37.609 --> 00:22:41.130 within US foreign policy today. the balance between 00:22:41.130 --> 00:22:44.490 strategic restraint and global leadership. The 00:22:44.490 --> 00:22:46.470 U .S. has been deeply involved in supporting 00:22:46.470 --> 00:22:49.109 Ukraine, but that involvement has always stopped 00:22:49.109 --> 00:22:51.609 short of direct confrontation with Russia, a 00:22:51.609 --> 00:22:54.130 deliberate choice designed to avoid escalating 00:22:54.130 --> 00:22:58.029 into a NATO -Russia war. That line between deterrence 00:22:58.029 --> 00:23:00.930 and de -escalation continues to define Washington's 00:23:00.930 --> 00:23:06.420 behavior on the international stage. The proposed 00:23:06.420 --> 00:23:10.000 30 -day ceasefire in March 2025 reflects both 00:23:10.000 --> 00:23:13.480 realism and constraint. On one hand, it signals 00:23:13.480 --> 00:23:16.579 US willingness to find diplomatic off -ramp amid 00:23:16.579 --> 00:23:20.259 a prolonged war. On the other, trying to renewed 00:23:20.259 --> 00:23:22.759 military and intelligence aid to progress in 00:23:22.759 --> 00:23:25.599 negotiations signals that American support is 00:23:25.599 --> 00:23:29.000 not unconditional, especially as domestic political 00:23:29.000 --> 00:23:32.480 pressures, rise, and allied unity becomes harder 00:23:32.480 --> 00:23:36.490 to maintain. Russia's non -response exposes the 00:23:36.490 --> 00:23:39.289 limitations of such diplomacy when leveraged 00:23:39.289 --> 00:23:44.349 without overwhelming coercive pressure. In Syria, 00:23:44.750 --> 00:23:47.450 the US decision to lift sanctions under a new 00:23:47.450 --> 00:23:51.029 regime presents both opportunity and risk. Washington 00:23:51.029 --> 00:23:53.250 is attempting to reshape the Syrian landscape, 00:23:53.670 --> 00:23:56.269 perhaps hoping to peel Damascus away from Tehran 00:23:56.269 --> 00:23:59.210 and Moscow. But the consequences are unclear. 00:23:59.500 --> 00:24:02.740 Empowering Syria's new leadership may shift regional 00:24:02.740 --> 00:24:05.180 alignments or inadvertently open the door to 00:24:05.180 --> 00:24:07.660 further Russian re -entrenchment, especially 00:24:07.660 --> 00:24:10.200 if Moscow views the Middle East as a fallback 00:24:10.200 --> 00:24:15.660 arena while its power in Ukraine stalls. The 00:24:15.660 --> 00:24:18.500 fragmentation of consensus among European allies 00:24:18.500 --> 00:24:21.680 is an especially important development. In the 00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:24.880 early phases of the war, NATO and the EU presented 00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:27.920 a unified front. But as the conflict drags on, 00:24:28.039 --> 00:24:30.519 some nations are pressing for a more aggressive 00:24:30.519 --> 00:24:33.680 stance, while others, especially those with significant 00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:37.480 energy or economic ties to Russia, favor negotiations 00:24:37.480 --> 00:24:41.039 and de -escalation. This divergence threatens 00:24:41.039 --> 00:24:44.259 transatlantic solidarity at a critical moment. 00:24:46.059 --> 00:24:48.980 Overall, the US strategy in Ukraine and Syria 00:24:48.980 --> 00:24:52.640 reflects a complex balancing act, staying engaged 00:24:52.640 --> 00:24:55.680 without becoming entangled. projecting power 00:24:55.680 --> 00:24:58.720 without provoking a wider war, and maintaining 00:24:58.720 --> 00:25:02.440 alliances without forcing uniformity. It's a 00:25:02.440 --> 00:25:05.539 cautious, calculated, and sometimes controversial 00:25:05.539 --> 00:25:08.160 approach that will likely define Biden's legacy 00:25:08.160 --> 00:25:12.059 and pose new tests for Trump's second term. Whether 00:25:12.059 --> 00:25:14.619 this tightrope walk will preserve US leadership 00:25:14.619 --> 00:25:18.180 or expose its limits is a question still playing 00:25:18.180 --> 00:25:23.819 out on the global stage. The war in Ukraine has 00:25:23.819 --> 00:25:26.200 stripped away much of the idealism that shaped 00:25:26.200 --> 00:25:29.259 post -Cold War foreign policy and forced a reckoning 00:25:29.259 --> 00:25:31.940 with realities of power politics in a multipolar 00:25:31.940 --> 00:25:35.039 world. The Western consensus that emerged after 00:25:35.039 --> 00:25:38.440 1991 centered on a liberal international order, 00:25:38.960 --> 00:25:41.779 the sanctity of sovereign borders, and the spread 00:25:41.779 --> 00:25:45.779 of democratic norms has met a stubborn and brutal 00:25:45.779 --> 00:25:48.640 resistance in the form of Russia's revanchist 00:25:48.640 --> 00:25:52.180 behavior. What was once considered a relic of 00:25:52.180 --> 00:25:55.460 the 20th century, spheres of influence, has not 00:25:55.460 --> 00:25:58.920 only re -emerged, but is being violently defended. 00:26:00.799 --> 00:26:03.440 For Russia, Ukraine is not just a neighboring 00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:06.619 country. It represents a linchpin in Moscow's 00:26:06.619 --> 00:26:09.140 strategic buffer zone and a front line in its 00:26:09.140 --> 00:26:11.480 struggle against what it perceives as Western 00:26:11.480 --> 00:26:14.960 encroachment. The invasion is not simply about 00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:18.180 territorial expansion. It's about redrawing geopolitical 00:26:18.180 --> 00:26:20.880 boundaries and restoring influence over a region 00:26:20.880 --> 00:26:23.859 it sees as vital to its national identity and 00:26:23.859 --> 00:26:28.220 security. From the US side, the conflict has 00:26:28.220 --> 00:26:31.319 shown both the strengths and the limits of deterrence. 00:26:31.740 --> 00:26:34.259 Billions in aid and sustained diplomatic pressure 00:26:34.259 --> 00:26:37.019 have helped Ukraine avoid collapse and regain 00:26:37.019 --> 00:26:41.299 territory. But the refusal to engage militarily, 00:26:41.700 --> 00:26:44.420 rooted in fears of escalation, has shown how 00:26:44.420 --> 00:26:46.980 deterrence against a nuclear -armed revisionist 00:26:46.980 --> 00:26:50.220 power is a fragile and slow -moving strategy. 00:26:51.539 --> 00:26:54.099 Russia has absorbed massive economic and military 00:26:54.099 --> 00:26:57.119 losses, yet it remains committed, which raises 00:26:57.119 --> 00:26:59.740 serious questions about how long the West can 00:26:59.740 --> 00:27:02.359 sustain support, especially with political divisions 00:27:02.359 --> 00:27:06.980 at home and fatigue among allies abroad. This 00:27:06.980 --> 00:27:10.720 has exposed cracks within NATO. Countries like 00:27:10.720 --> 00:27:13.980 Poland and the Baltic states push for maximalist 00:27:13.980 --> 00:27:17.640 support and faster, more decisive action, while 00:27:17.640 --> 00:27:20.440 others, including Germany and France at times, 00:27:20.880 --> 00:27:25.079 have leaned into caution and diplomacy. These 00:27:25.079 --> 00:27:27.900 divisions don't spell collapse but do highlight 00:27:27.900 --> 00:27:30.680 the difficulty of maintaining unity under the 00:27:30.680 --> 00:27:35.259 pressure of prolonged crisis. More broadly, the 00:27:35.259 --> 00:27:38.640 war has challenged the belief that economic interdependence 00:27:38.640 --> 00:27:42.089 alone can prevent conflict. Russia was deeply 00:27:42.089 --> 00:27:44.910 enmenched in the European energy market, yet 00:27:44.910 --> 00:27:48.690 this did not deter war. It arguably enabled it. 00:27:49.450 --> 00:27:52.250 The strategic lesson for the US and its allies 00:27:52.250 --> 00:27:55.450 is that diplomacy, alliances, and economic tools 00:27:55.450 --> 00:27:58.650 matter, but they are not foolproof shields against 00:27:58.650 --> 00:28:03.009 power -driven aggression. Going forward, the 00:28:03.009 --> 00:28:05.630 conflict will shape how the West engages with 00:28:05.630 --> 00:28:08.369 other revisionist powers, particularly China. 00:28:08.670 --> 00:28:11.410 It also demands a clearer understanding of where 00:28:11.410 --> 00:28:14.509 red lines are drawn and what the cost of ambiguity 00:28:14.509 --> 00:28:17.450 might be. It's not just about defending Ukraine. 00:28:17.970 --> 00:28:20.329 It's about defending the credibility of the rules 00:28:20.329 --> 00:28:23.210 -based order in an age where power is once again 00:28:23.210 --> 00:28:26.910 being defined by who is willing to act and at 00:28:26.910 --> 00:28:31.450 what cost. If anything, the war in Ukraine has 00:28:31.450 --> 00:28:34.029 made clear that great power competition isn't 00:28:34.029 --> 00:28:37.740 just a policy buzzword. It's the defining structure 00:28:37.740 --> 00:28:41.299 of our era. And managing it will require more 00:28:41.299 --> 00:28:44.400 than rhetoric. It will require sustained coordination, 00:28:45.160 --> 00:28:48.640 a more honest assessment of risks, and an evolved 00:28:48.640 --> 00:28:52.000 strategy that blends principled commitment with 00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:57.259 strategic realism. In part 4, we'll close this 00:28:57.259 --> 00:28:59.960 series by reflecting on what these modern flashpoints 00:28:59.960 --> 00:29:02.519 can teach us about the enduring nature of power 00:29:02.519 --> 00:29:06.549 politics. From Ukraine's resistance to the West's 00:29:06.549 --> 00:29:09.990 cautious assertiveness, we'll ask what lessons 00:29:09.990 --> 00:29:13.269 have world leaders learned about deterrence, 00:29:13.569 --> 00:29:17.250 escalation, and alliance cohesion? What does 00:29:17.250 --> 00:29:19.609 the failure to prevent war in Europe say about 00:29:19.609 --> 00:29:22.450 the state of diplomacy? And as new technologies, 00:29:23.210 --> 00:29:25.769 environmental crisis, and non -state actors continue 00:29:25.769 --> 00:29:28.490 to shift the terrain, we will consider the future 00:29:28.490 --> 00:29:32.230 of power politics itself. Is the world heading 00:29:32.230 --> 00:29:35.369 toward a new multipolar order? Or are we simply 00:29:35.369 --> 00:29:38.509 seeing old patterns repackaged in new forms? 00:29:39.430 --> 00:29:42.289 In our final installment, we'll explore the possibilities 00:29:42.289 --> 00:29:44.549 and the risks that lie ahead.