Hey friends, welcome back to the Diplomacy in
Discourse channel. I'm your host AR, and today's
episode kicks off a two -part series that dives
deep into the strategic shifts reshaping the
global landscape. We're exploring a fascinating
concept, smart power. You might have heard of
hard power, think military force, and soft power,
culture, influence, and diplomacy. But smart
power? That's the hybrid, a calculated mix of
Both. It's how modern states project strength
while building alliances, how they defend interests
without firing bullets, and how they rise without
dominating. So today, let's unravel how smart
power plays out in a world that's constantly
shifting. Let's begin with two foundational concepts.
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics. These are not just
academic terms. They're the lens through which
leaders make life and death decisions. Geopolitics
is the study of how geographical factors such
as location, resources, and physical terrain
influence a nation's political power and strategic
decisions. It's the lens through which we can
understand why countries act the way they do
on the global stage. The United States enjoys
a unique geographical advantage. bound by the
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, it has natural barriers
that have historically protected it from foreign
invasions. Its northern and southern neighbors,
Canada and Mexico, have stable relations, allowing
the U .S. to focus its military and economic
efforts beyond its borders. This geographical
setup has enabled the U .S. to become a global
superpower, projecting influence worldwide while
maintaining relative domestic security. Russia's
vast expanses spanned 11 time zones, but its
geography presents challenges. With few natural
barriers to the West, Russia has faced numerous
invasions throughout history. From Napoleon to
Hitler, this vulnerability has instilled a strategic
culture focused on creating buffer zones. The
annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the involvement
in eastern Ukraine are contemporary manifestations
of this enduring geopolitical strategy, aiming
to secure its periphery against perceived threats.
Turkey's strategic location at the intersection
of Europe and Asia has made it a pivotal player
in regional and global politics. Controlling
the Bosphorus and the Darnadel Straits, Turkey
holds the keys to naval passages between the
Black Sea and the Mediterranean. This control
has significant implications, especially for
countries like Russia, which rely on these waterways
for maritime access. Additionally, Turkey's role
in NATO and its relationships with neighboring
regions underscore its importance as a bridge
between East and West. Understanding geopolitics
allows us to appreciate the underlying factors
that drive national strategies and international
relations. Geography doesn't determine destiny,
but it certainly shapes the possibilities and
constraints that nations navigate in the pursuit
of power and security. Geoeconomics refers to
the strategic use of economic instruments to
achieve geopolitical objectives. Unlike traditional
geopolitics, which relies on military might and
alliances, geoeconomics leverages trade policies,
investment strategies, sanctions, and technological
dominance to influence international relations.
China's Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, launched
in 2013, exemplifies geoeconomic strategy. Through
the BRI, China has invested in infrastructure
projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe, including
ports, railways, and digital networks. These
investments aim to enhance global trade connectivity
while extending China's economic and political
influence. However, some BRI projects have led
to significant debt burdens for recipient countries,
raising concerns about the debt trap diplomacy
and the potential for increased Chinese leverage
over these nations. The United States employs
geoeconomic tools such as sanctions and export
controls to advance its foreign policy goals.
By restricting access to its financial systems
and critical technologies, the U .S. can exert
pressure on countries like Iran, North Korea,
and Russia. For example, sanctions targeting
Chinese companies involved in purchasing Iranian
oil aim to disrupt revenue streams that could
fund activities contrary to US interests. The
use of geoeconomic strategies reflects a shift
in how nations pursue power and influence. Economic
tools offer a means to achieve strategic objectives
without direct military confrontation. However,
increasing reliance on such tools also raises
questions about global economic stability, the
potential for retaliatory measures, and the long
-term effectiveness of economic coercion. Understanding
geoeconomics provides insights into the subtle,
yet powerful ways countries navigate the complex
landscape of international relations. As economic
interdependence grows, so does the significance
of economic statecraft in shaping global order.
Let's turn the clock back to 1945. The world
was in ruins, entire cities like Dresden, Hiroshima,
and Stalingrad lay in rubble. Economies were
decimated, tens of millions were dead, the global
order had collapsed, and the task of rebuilding
it fell largely to the two remaining superpowers,
the United States and the Soviet Union. But they
had vastly different visions of what that rebuilt
world should look like. The United States didn't
just emerge victorious, it emerged ascendant.
Its industrial base was untouched, its economy
booming, and its technological and military advantages
unparalleled. But America didn't just flex its
muscles through tanks and troops, it flexed through
architecture, not buildings though, but global
systems. Out of this chaos came the Bretton Woods
system. giving us institutions like the International
Monetary Fund, IMF, and the World Bank. These
weren't just financial instruments, they were
geopolitical tools. The idea was simple but profound.
If countries were economically tied to the US
-led order, they'd be less likely to fall into
chaos or communism. Trade, stability, and access
to capital were used not just to rebuild Europe,
but to bind it to American markets, and, more
importantly, American values. Then came the Marshall
Plan in 1948, a stroke of strategic brilliance.
The US poured over $12 billion, about $130 billion
today, into the recovery of Western Europe. But
it wasn't just about kindness or charity. This
was geoeconomics in action. Rebuilding Europe
created loyal allies, expanded markets for American
goods, and pushed back against the rising tide
of Soviet influence. It was smart power before
the term even existed, the calculated blending
of generosity and strategic interests. Meanwhile,
on the other side of the Iron Curtain, the Soviet
Union was crafting its own sphere of influence.
Eastern Europe fell under Moscow's shadow, politically,
economically, and ideologically. The USSR enforced
its grip through military occupation, puppet
regimes, and repression. But it, too, understood
the value of persuasion. The Soviets invested
in propaganda, educational exchanges, and support
for anti -colonial movements around the world.
From Angola to Vietnam, from Cuba to the Congo,
the Soviet Union cast itself as the champion
of the oppressed. It was the soft edge of a hard
regime. From this Cold War standoff, the seeds
of smart power were sown. Because in this battle
of systems, capitalism versus communism, democracy
versus authoritarianism, brute force wasn't enough.
You had to win over minds. You had to shape narratives.
You had to create alliances, not just of interest,
but of belief. That's why jazz musicians were
sent abroad by the US State Department. That's
why Moscow built universities for African and
Asian students. It was a cultural arms race as
much as it was a political one. And its legacy
still haunts us today. Military industrial complexes,
intelligence alliances like Five Eyes, and shadow
proxy wars from Korea and Vietnam to Nicaragua
and Afghanistan, all of them were born out of
this Cold War paradigm. A worldview where power
meant more than just firepower. It meant systems,
symbols, and solidarity. This was the crucible
in which modern smart power was forged, and though
the Cold War is over, its tools and tactics remain,
reshaped for a world that's still divided, still
competitive, and still in need of leaders who
know how to wield both the sword and the story.
The Cold War, a period of geopolitical tensions
between the United States and the Soviet Union,
has left an indelible mark on international relations.
Despite the dissolution of the Soviet Union in
1991, many of the strategic frameworks and institutions
established during that era continue to shape
US foreign policy today. The United States maintains
a vast network of over 750 military installations
worldwide, extending security guarantees to more
than 30 countries. The North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, NATO, Originally formed to counter
Soviet expansion, has expanded eastward, incorporating
nations that were once part of the Eastern Bloc.
This eastward expansion has been a point of contention
for Russia, which perceives it as a threat to
its sphere of influence. Russia's military interventions
in Georgia, 2008, Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine
in 2022 can be viewed through this lens. as efforts
to reassert its influence in the face of perceived
Western encroachments. However, the strategic
landscape is evolving. Modern challenges such
as cyber warfare, economic coercion, and information
manipulation have emerged as significant threats.
The concept of gray zone conflicts, activities
that fall between traditional warfare and peaceful
competition, has become increasingly relevant.
These developments necessitate a re -evaluation
of traditional security paradigms and the adoption
of more nuanced strategies that combine military,
economic, and diplomatic tools. Since returning
to office in January 2025, President Donald Trump
has implemented significant changes to the U
.S. foreign policy, reflecting a shift towards
unilateralism and a focus on national interests.
Reassessment of International Commitments President
Trump has withdrawn the United States from several
international agreements and organizations, including
the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health
Organization. These actions signify a move away
from unilateral cooperation towards a more isolationist
stance. Additionally, the administration has
reduced funding for international aid programs
notably dismantling the US Agency for International
Development, which has led to significant impacts
on global humanitarian efforts. 2. Approach to
the Russia -Ukraine Conflict The Trump administration
has taken a distinct approach to the ongoing
conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while expressing
a desire for a swift resolution President Trump
has indicated a willingness to reduce US involvement
if progress is not achieved. This stance has
raised concerns among European allies about the
United States commitment to NATO and the security
of the region. 3. Relations with Iran In a significant
policy shift, the Trump administration has reinstated
a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, demanding
the complete elimination of its nuclear program.
This approach marks a departure from previous
negotiations that allowed for limited uranium
enrichment for civilian purposes. The administration's
hardline stance has increased tensions and complicated
diplomatic efforts. 4. Trade policies and economic
measures President Trump has implemented a series
of tariffs on imports from various countries,
including traditional allies. These measures
aimed at addressing trade imbalances have led
to increased tensions and concerns about potential
economic repercussions. Critics argue that such
policies may undermine global economic stability
and strain diplomatic relationships. And five,
structural changes to the State Department. The
administration has proposed a significant reorganization
of the State Department. aiming to centralize
foreign policy decision -making and reduce bureaucratic
constraints. If enacted, these challenges would
represent one of the most substantial restructurings
of the department since its inception. These
developments under President Trump's second term
reflects a broader shift in U .S. foreign policy,
emphasizing national sovereignty and a transactional
approach to international relations. As the global
landscape continues to evolve, Understanding
these changes is crucial for comprehending the
future direction of U .S. engagement on the world
stage. The United States benefits immensely from
its geographical positioning. Flanked by the
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, it enjoys natural
barriers that have historically protected it
from foreign invasions. Its only neighboring
countries, Canada and Mexico, maintain stable
and cooperative relationships. allowing the U
.S. to focus its military and economic efforts
globally without significant concerns about border
conflicts. This secure positioning enables the
U .S. to project power across the globe effectively.
With a vast network of military bases and a formidable
navy, the U .S. can respond to international
crises rapidly and maintain a presence in key
strategic regions. Furthermore, Its diverse economy
and innovative ecosystem support sustained global
influence through both hard and soft power mechanisms.
In contrast, China's geographical situation presents
several challenges. Sharing borders with 14 countries
including India, Russia, and North Korea, China
operates in a complex and often tense regional
environment. Territorial disputes in the South
and East China Seas, as well as concerns over
Taiwan, add layers of strategic complexity. Internally,
China faces issues such as an aging population
and economic transitions from manufacturing to
a more service -oriented economy. Regions like
Xinjiang and Tibet require significant resources
to maintain stability, further stretching China's
domestic focus. Given these constraints, China
has adopted a strategy of smart power, emphasizing
economic and cultural initiatives to extend its
influence. The Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
is a prime example, aiming to build infrastructure
and foster economic ties across Asia, Africa,
and Europe. However, The BRI has faced criticism
for leading to debt burdens in participating
countries with some projects stalling or being
scaled back due to financial and political concerns.
Culturally, China has established Confucius Institutes
worldwide to promote Chinese language and culture.
While these institutions aim to enhance China's
soft power, they have also faced scrutiny and
closures in some countries over concerns about
academic freedom and political influence. The
United States' favorable geography provides it
with unparalleled strategic advantages, enabling
it to project power and influence with relative
ease. China, while a rising global power, must
navigate a more challenging geographical and
political landscape, requiring multifaceted approach
to extend its influence. Understanding these
geographical realities is crucial for comprehending
the strategic decisions and global interactions
of these two major powers. Originally coined
by a Goldman Sachs economist to describe emerging
markets, BRICS has transformed into a geopolitical
block with tangible ambitions. Comprising Brazil,
Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the group
has evolved beyond its economic roots to challenge
Western dominance in global affairs. In recent
years, BRICS has expanded its membership to include
countries seeking alternatives to Western -led
institutions. Notably, in 2023 and 2024, the
bloc extended initiatives to Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia,
Argentina, and United Arab Emirates. While Argentina
later declined the invitation and Saudi Arabia
has yet to formalize its membership, the expansion
reflects a growing desire among nations to diversify
their international alignments. BRICS has undertaken
several initiatives to strengthen its collective
influence. New Development Bank, NDB, established
to finance infrastructure and sustainable development
projects in member countries. The NDB aims to
provide an alternative to traditional financial
institutions. Contingent Reverse Arrangement
CRA This framework offers financial support to
members facing balance of payment pressures,
enhancing economic stability within the block.
D -Dollarization Efforts BRICS countries are
increasingly conducting trade in local currencies
to reduce reliance on the U .S. dollar. with
mechanisms like currency swap lines and payment
systems such as CIPs facilitating this transaction.
Despite shared goals, BRICS faces internal challenges,
particularly the long -standing rivalry between
India and China. Border disputes and competition
for regional influence have occasionally strained
relations. However, the blog has served as a
platform for dialogue with recent summits facilitating
discussions aimed at deescalating tensions. The
expanse and initiatives of BRICS signify a shift
toward a more multipolar world order. By providing
alternatives to Western -dominated institutions,
BRICS offers emerging economies a platform to
assert their interests and influence global governance
structures. In summary, BRICS has evolved from
an economic acronym to a significant geopolitical
condition, reflecting the aspirations of emerging
economies to reshape the global order. While
challenges persist, the bloc's continued growth
and initiatives underscore its potential to influence
international affairs in the years to come. Now
let's talk about Iran, a country under siege,
but not without options. Iran's strategic maneuvers
from 2019 to 2025 illustrate a calculated effort
to underscore Western pressures and assert its
influence both regionally and globally. 2019
-2020 Navigating sanctions and pandemic challenges
Following the U .S. withdrawal from the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA, in 2018,
Iran faced intensified economic sanctions that
significantly impacted its economy. In response,
Tehran sought to diversify its international
partnership, notably strengthening ties with
China and Russia. The onset of the COVID -19
pandemic in 2020 further strained Iran's economy.
However, the crisis also reinforced its ideological
stance. positioning itself as a leader of the
anti -imperialist axis in the region. The election
of President Ebrahim Raisi in 2021 marked a shift
towards a more hardline approach. Nuclear negotiations
stalled and Iran advanced its missile and drone
capabilities, enhancing its cyber warfare proficiency.
In 2022, Iran increased naval patrols in the
Strait of Hormuz, signaling its readiness to
escalate tensions if provoked. The October 7,
2023 attack by Hamas on Israel provided Iran
an opportunity to expand its influence without
direct involvement. Tehran offered rhetorical
and logistical support to Hezbollah, strengthened
ties with the Houthis in Yemen, and deepened
cooperation with militias in Syria and Iraq.
In 2024, Iran's admission into BRICS marked a
diplomatic victory, granting it increased legitimacy
and access to broader economic partnerships.
This move aligns with Iran's strategy to seek
alternatives to Western -dominated institutions
and reduce reliance on the US dollar. 2025 Strategic
Alliances and Nuclear Negotiations In 2025, Iran
continues to engage in strategic diplomacy, notably
with China and Russia, to bolster its position
in ongoing nuclear negotiations with the United
States. Tehran resists proposal to transfer its
enriched uranium stockpile to third countries,
insisting on maintaining control under international
supervision. Simultaneously, Iran has signed
a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty
with Russia encompassing trade, military cooperation,
and intelligence sharing, further solidifying
its alliance amid Western sanctions. Over the
past six years, Iran has demonstrated resilience
and adaptability in the face of external pressures.
By forging strategic alliances, advancing its
military capabilities, and seeking integration
into alternative international frameworks like
BRICS, Iran aims to outlast its rivals and reshape
the regional order to its advantage. Now let's
divert our attention to Saudi Arabia, the strategic
hedger. In 2019, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
known as MBS, faced significant international
scrutiny following the murder of journalist Jamal
Khashoggi. Despite the backlash, MBS accelerated
the implementation of Vision 2030, an ambitious
plan to diversify the Saudi economy and reduce
its dependence on oil revenues. The onset of
the COVID -19 pandemic in 2020 posed challenges,
slowing economic progress. However, the crisis
also underscored the urgency of economic diversification,
reinforcing the Kingdom's commitment to transformative
reforms. 2021 -2022 deepening global partnerships
and technological advancements. During this period,
Saudi Arabia strengthened its ties with China,
expanding cooperation beyond trade to include
surveillance technology, artificial intelligence,
and 5G infrastructure. These collaborations signaled
Riyadh's intent to embrace technological innovation
and diversify its international partnerships.
Simultaneously, the Kingdom explored the possibility
of normalizing relations with Israel, hosting
U .S. delegations and discussing regional defense
initiatives. However, the complexities of regional
politics necessitated a cautious approach. The
events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked
Israel, prompted Saudi Arabia to reassess its
regional strategies. Recognizing the sentiments
of the Arab populace, Riyadh paused normalization
talks with Israel and shifted focus towards fostering
regional unity. In a significant diplomatic move,
Saudi Arabia restored ties with Iran in 2024,
through a deal brokered by China. marking a pivotal
step toward regional reconciliation. Additionally,
the Kingdom expressed interests in joining BRICS,
reflecting its inclination toward a multipolar
global order. In 2025, Saudi Arabia continues
to make strides in diversifying its economy and
enhancing its global presence. Investments in
Africa The Kingdom has pledged to invest $41
billion in sub -Saharan Africa over the next
decade, focusing on infrastructure, renewable
energy, and startup ecosystems. Energy Sector
Diversifications Saudi Aramco has entered into
a joint development agreement with China's BYD
to advance new energy vehicle technologies, aligning
with the Kingdom's transition towards cleaner
energy solutions. Aviation and tourism. The launch
of Riyadh Air, a new national airline, aims to
boost tourism by connecting the Kingdom to 100
destinations within five years, showcasing modern
luxury and aligning with Vision 2030 objectives.
And cultural diplomacy. Saudi Arabia is investing
in global cultural exchanges, hosting international
events and promoting its cultural heritage to
enhance its soft power and global image. Saudi
Arabia's journey from 2019 to 2025 illustrates
a strategic recalibration in response to regional
and global challenges. By embracing economic
diversification, fostering new international
partnerships, and investing in cultural diplomacy,
the kingdom positions itself as a dynamic player
on the world stage. This multifaceted approach
underscores Saudi Arabia's commitment to shaping
a resilient and influential future amidst an
evolving geopolitical landscape. So why do Iran
and Saudi Arabia matter so much? Because they
illustrate the new rules of the game. It's no
longer about who has the biggest army, it's about
who can build alliances, shape narratives, and
weather the storms. Iran, the defiant revolutionary,
is betting on endurance and asymmetric power.
Saudi Arabia, the calculating reformer, is betting
on diversification and leadership. Both are operating
in a world where smart power isn't a luxury,
it's survival. Thank you for taking the time
to listen to part 1. Stay tuned for part 2. Once
again, thank you so much. I appreciate you all.
Until next time.