WEBVTT 00:00:05.460 --> 00:00:08.880 You're listening to a stage talk titled Identifying 00:00:08.880 --> 00:00:12.140 Munitions in the War with Iran. This week, Bellingcat 00:00:12.140 --> 00:00:15.400 seasoned weapons expert Trevor Ball joined us 00:00:15.400 --> 00:00:18.660 on stage. He spoke about the many resources you 00:00:18.660 --> 00:00:21.420 can use to help verify weapon parts seen in imagery 00:00:21.420 --> 00:00:24.219 from a conflict and the mistakes many make when 00:00:24.219 --> 00:00:27.309 attempting this type of identification. He also 00:00:27.309 --> 00:00:29.730 shared insights from his reporting on the war 00:00:29.730 --> 00:00:33.189 between Israel, the US, and Iran so far, and 00:00:33.189 --> 00:00:35.530 answered community members' questions on how 00:00:35.530 --> 00:00:38.409 they could responsibly cover it. You can find 00:00:38.409 --> 00:00:40.689 links to all the resources mentioned in the talk 00:00:40.689 --> 00:00:43.170 in the podcast description. This talk was hosted 00:00:43.170 --> 00:00:45.869 by me, Charlotte Moll, on Thursday the 12th of 00:00:45.869 --> 00:00:48.850 March, 2026, in the Belencap Discord server. 00:01:00.329 --> 00:01:04.030 Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Or is it a low -cost 00:01:04.030 --> 00:01:07.030 unmanned combat attack system, or LUCAS, for 00:01:07.030 --> 00:01:09.810 short? Drones, missiles and bombs are flying 00:01:09.810 --> 00:01:12.129 and dropping out to the sky across the Gulf states 00:01:12.129 --> 00:01:15.409 and the Levant. But how, as a researcher or journalist, 00:01:15.530 --> 00:01:17.650 do you know what is up there or falling down 00:01:17.650 --> 00:01:20.650 here? Well, hopefully today we can answer that. 00:01:20.920 --> 00:01:23.400 Bellingcat's Trevor Ball joins us. Trevor is 00:01:23.400 --> 00:01:26.659 a US Army veteran and a guru on munitions use 00:01:26.659 --> 00:01:29.400 and has been sharing that expertise in this very 00:01:29.400 --> 00:01:32.819 server for years. Right now his focus is on the 00:01:32.819 --> 00:01:35.099 unfolding conflict in Iran and the surrounding 00:01:35.099 --> 00:01:37.900 regions working daily to identify what weaponry 00:01:37.900 --> 00:01:41.420 is being used and where. Today he's here to answer 00:01:41.420 --> 00:01:44.879 your questions but first let's unpack what he's 00:01:44.879 --> 00:01:48.000 found so far from identifying who is likely to 00:01:48.000 --> 00:01:50.829 blame for a strike to the use of never seen before 00:01:50.829 --> 00:01:54.170 armoury. We'll also try to cover times when people 00:01:54.170 --> 00:01:56.909 got it wrong, misidentifying remnants and debris 00:01:56.909 --> 00:01:59.629 is something else and why this misidentification 00:01:59.629 --> 00:02:02.370 can happen. Before I pass over to him though, 00:02:02.450 --> 00:02:04.909 a short reminder that you can place your questions 00:02:04.909 --> 00:02:07.269 in the chat over on the right hand corner of 00:02:07.269 --> 00:02:09.909 your screen, but please remember that this is 00:02:09.909 --> 00:02:12.430 being audio recorded for the podcast. So if you 00:02:12.430 --> 00:02:14.650 don't want me to mention your username, please 00:02:14.650 --> 00:02:18.159 add that as a note in your question. Okay. Trevor, 00:02:18.439 --> 00:02:22.400 the stage is yours. All right. Thank you, Charlie. 00:02:22.979 --> 00:02:25.099 So I'm just going to get started talking about 00:02:25.099 --> 00:02:28.139 some of the stuff we've seen so far. The most 00:02:28.139 --> 00:02:30.159 important thing to know is like while there have 00:02:30.159 --> 00:02:34.340 been new weapons seen in this war, some for the 00:02:34.340 --> 00:02:37.360 first time, it's been their first known use in 00:02:37.360 --> 00:02:39.719 combat. A lot of these are weapons that have 00:02:39.719 --> 00:02:42.960 been used for decades. They're very common. A 00:02:42.960 --> 00:02:47.139 lot of countries use them. I think it was last 00:02:47.139 --> 00:02:49.879 week, we just did an article kind of summarizing 00:02:49.879 --> 00:02:52.860 some of the weapons we saw in the first few days, 00:02:53.620 --> 00:02:55.780 whether they're posted online on social media 00:02:55.780 --> 00:02:58.719 or posted by the various countries involved, 00:02:58.740 --> 00:03:03.139 either the US, Israel, or some of the Gulf countries 00:03:03.139 --> 00:03:06.639 were posting remnants. One of the most common 00:03:06.639 --> 00:03:10.020 ones we've seen is just the Mark 80 style bombs. 00:03:10.439 --> 00:03:14.710 It's kind of the most standard bomb used. by 00:03:14.710 --> 00:03:17.990 Western countries and Israel. You can attach 00:03:17.990 --> 00:03:20.189 a bunch of different bomb guidance kits to them. 00:03:20.629 --> 00:03:25.050 This is actually a picture of the 500 pound Mark 00:03:25.050 --> 00:03:28.229 82 with a JDAM kit on the left. On the right, 00:03:28.310 --> 00:03:31.750 you have the Bunker Buster version of the 2000 00:03:31.750 --> 00:03:34.969 pound bomb. And that was the blue 109. Also just 00:03:34.969 --> 00:03:40.250 with a different JDAM kit. This is a bomb that 00:03:40.250 --> 00:03:43.469 the U .S. has. It's a glide bomb called the JSAL. 00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:46.439 That's one that we've seen quite a lot of them 00:03:46.439 --> 00:03:50.159 loading. This is one of the weapons that the 00:03:50.159 --> 00:03:52.719 U .S. used for the very first time. It's called 00:03:52.719 --> 00:03:55.780 a Precision Strike Missile. It's a newer version 00:03:55.780 --> 00:03:58.099 of the Atacums that you might have heard a lot 00:03:58.099 --> 00:04:01.180 about being used in Ukraine. The U .S. gave quite 00:04:01.180 --> 00:04:04.180 a few, some that were originally made in the 00:04:04.180 --> 00:04:09.740 1990s. One of the most important things about 00:04:09.740 --> 00:04:14.250 identifying weapons is Anytime there's remnants 00:04:14.250 --> 00:04:16.730 people will often claim that it's something it's 00:04:16.730 --> 00:04:19.790 not either because of ignorance or because they're 00:04:19.790 --> 00:04:24.509 trying to Basically claim that a another party 00:04:24.509 --> 00:04:27.790 was responsible for a strike In this article, 00:04:27.790 --> 00:04:31.290 we mentioned some of the earliest claims we saw 00:04:31.290 --> 00:04:35.189 such as a big one that happens in almost every 00:04:35.189 --> 00:04:39.410 conflict is that people will claim that a drop 00:04:39.410 --> 00:04:44.790 pod from an aircraft is a missile or bomb. Essentially 00:04:44.790 --> 00:04:47.470 aircraft will have external fuel tanks that get 00:04:47.470 --> 00:04:49.310 mounted to them. And when they don't need them 00:04:49.310 --> 00:04:51.449 anymore, they just jettison them from the aircraft 00:04:51.449 --> 00:04:54.170 and they fall to the ground. And then people 00:04:54.170 --> 00:04:58.129 go, oh, that's a bomb. So this specific example 00:04:58.129 --> 00:05:00.870 of these, uh, the photo on the left and the photo 00:05:00.870 --> 00:05:03.810 on the top right, or of a Israeli fuel tank. 00:05:03.910 --> 00:05:06.110 Um, one of the photos in the post shows a close 00:05:06.110 --> 00:05:10.399 -up of the marking, but It got claimed as a Israeli 00:05:10.399 --> 00:05:13.819 bomb and then this Iranian missile booster on 00:05:13.819 --> 00:05:16.660 the bottom right got claimed that it was also 00:05:16.660 --> 00:05:19.199 an Israeli missile when it's Iranian instead. 00:05:20.540 --> 00:05:23.259 So one of the things is just being able to identify 00:05:23.259 --> 00:05:26.160 these weapons or know where to look can help 00:05:26.160 --> 00:05:28.120 you kind of make sense of what's actually going 00:05:28.120 --> 00:05:33.220 on versus what posts might be claiming. Here's 00:05:33.220 --> 00:05:37.100 another one that was a Israeli missile booster. 00:05:37.310 --> 00:05:41.389 that was reportedly found in Iraq. That's another 00:05:41.389 --> 00:05:45.269 important thing to note that like Iran is not 00:05:45.269 --> 00:05:48.629 the only country firing missile boosters or firing 00:05:48.629 --> 00:05:50.569 missiles with boosters. So not everything that 00:05:50.569 --> 00:05:53.870 falls to the ground is Iranian. You have drop 00:05:53.870 --> 00:05:57.230 tanks, you have Israeli missiles, they're using 00:05:57.230 --> 00:05:59.610 boosters. You have all these interceptor missiles 00:05:59.610 --> 00:06:02.410 being fired that fall to the ground either after 00:06:02.410 --> 00:06:05.579 they miss or after they intercept. Here's a piece 00:06:05.579 --> 00:06:10.319 of a israeli era 2 interceptor And then you also 00:06:10.319 --> 00:06:13.240 have remnants of weapons that failed to get to 00:06:13.240 --> 00:06:18.379 their target I've seen four or five now Remnants 00:06:18.379 --> 00:06:20.699 of tomahawk missiles that reportedly failed to 00:06:20.699 --> 00:06:26.139 get to their target in either rock or syria And 00:06:26.139 --> 00:06:27.680 this is one of the most common pieces you'll 00:06:27.680 --> 00:06:30.720 see is the warhead because it's a lot denser 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:32.920 so the missile will hit something and then the 00:06:32.920 --> 00:06:35.279 warhead will just keep going and stop usually 00:06:35.279 --> 00:06:36.879 a bit away from where the rest of the remnants 00:06:36.879 --> 00:06:41.379 end up so one thing i like to do when i'm looking 00:06:41.379 --> 00:06:43.920 at a weapon i've been looking at them for a while 00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:46.160 now so like a lot of them i kind of have an idea 00:06:46.160 --> 00:06:49.120 of what they are if i don't know already but 00:06:49.120 --> 00:06:53.420 the osm -p has been documenting this war already 00:06:53.420 --> 00:06:57.759 they have a collection page for the current war, 00:06:58.079 --> 00:07:00.399 where all the weapon remnants they've found and 00:07:00.399 --> 00:07:02.079 they've verified with at least two different 00:07:02.079 --> 00:07:06.920 experts they've posted here. And these show that, 00:07:07.480 --> 00:07:09.180 hey, these are associated with the war, this 00:07:09.180 --> 00:07:11.579 is what we're seeing so far. So this is a really 00:07:11.579 --> 00:07:14.800 good place to look immediately. Very quick, very 00:07:14.800 --> 00:07:17.319 easy. But also if you don't see it here, you 00:07:17.319 --> 00:07:19.639 can go back to previous conflicts the parties 00:07:19.639 --> 00:07:23.149 have been involved with, as... Like I said, while 00:07:23.149 --> 00:07:24.769 a few of these weapons are being used for the 00:07:24.769 --> 00:07:26.829 first time, like this Lucas drone right here, 00:07:26.910 --> 00:07:31.370 which is the US B of the Shahed with some improvements, 00:07:32.610 --> 00:07:35.290 a lot of them have been used for decades and 00:07:35.290 --> 00:07:39.189 especially in the 12 -day war. So they also have 00:07:39.189 --> 00:07:42.290 a election page for the 12 -day war from June 00:07:42.290 --> 00:07:45.769 2025, where you can see the remnants and weapon 00:07:45.769 --> 00:07:49.370 debris they verified from that conflict. So you're 00:07:49.370 --> 00:07:51.750 going to see a lot of the same ones. and a lot 00:07:51.750 --> 00:07:53.550 of these weapons, while there might not be as 00:07:53.550 --> 00:07:57.050 many photos of from the current war yet, you 00:07:57.050 --> 00:07:59.970 can go out and use this as a reference. So here's 00:07:59.970 --> 00:08:03.730 some remnants of a GBU -39 bomb, the unexploded 00:08:03.730 --> 00:08:05.870 warhead specifically, but these bombs are being 00:08:05.870 --> 00:08:10.569 used in the current war as well. Here's the Israeli 00:08:10.569 --> 00:08:13.290 Mikulet they use a lot from their drones. So 00:08:13.290 --> 00:08:15.350 this has also been spotted in the current war, 00:08:15.370 --> 00:08:18.500 but it's just an extra thing to go look at. and 00:08:18.500 --> 00:08:20.100 see what these countries have been using in the 00:08:20.100 --> 00:08:23.040 past. It can help you easier identify stuff. 00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:26.040 And there's a lot of good weapon debris on the 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:30.680 OSMP from the Yemen 2025 strikes that the US 00:08:30.680 --> 00:08:34.600 conducted. See, here's the same blue 109s with 00:08:34.600 --> 00:08:39.659 JDAM kits. Here's the same 500 -pound bombs that 00:08:39.659 --> 00:08:42.399 we featured in our story from this current war, 00:08:42.820 --> 00:08:45.279 the first three days that the US released photos 00:08:45.279 --> 00:08:50.450 of. And while I haven't seen pictures of the 00:08:50.450 --> 00:08:54.950 AGM 88 harm series yet, it's notable that they 00:08:54.950 --> 00:08:59.009 use these in Venezuela as well. So if you see 00:08:59.009 --> 00:09:01.850 something and it's not immediately in the collection 00:09:01.850 --> 00:09:03.990 page or in a recent article, it's worth going 00:09:03.990 --> 00:09:07.230 back and looking at past wars where these countries 00:09:07.230 --> 00:09:09.629 were involved and see if you see anything that 00:09:09.629 --> 00:09:14.259 matches that way. because even if these musicians 00:09:14.259 --> 00:09:16.080 haven't appeared yet, there's a good chance they 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:17.679 might be being used and it just hasn't filtered 00:09:17.679 --> 00:09:20.720 onto social media. There's really not that much 00:09:20.720 --> 00:09:23.399 coming out on social media from Iran outside 00:09:23.399 --> 00:09:26.960 of what state media is posting. And it's also 00:09:26.960 --> 00:09:29.720 very important to note that claims that state 00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:31.799 media will make or identifications they will 00:09:31.799 --> 00:09:34.679 make when they release photos aren't always accurate. 00:09:36.229 --> 00:09:39.009 They released a few photos claiming, hey, this 00:09:39.009 --> 00:09:41.190 is a downed drone, when in reality it was just 00:09:41.190 --> 00:09:44.029 a U .S. missile that crashed or blew up and they 00:09:44.029 --> 00:09:47.529 just got parts of it. Or you'll have them saying, 00:09:47.570 --> 00:09:49.809 hey, this is a U .S. drone when it's Israeli 00:09:49.809 --> 00:09:54.909 or something like that. And a couple of the other 00:09:54.909 --> 00:09:57.450 sources I really like, aside from the open source 00:09:57.450 --> 00:10:00.620 munitions portal. this is more of like more niche 00:10:00.620 --> 00:10:02.659 and more if you're trying to get some very good 00:10:02.659 --> 00:10:05.500 information or do more of like just a general 00:10:05.500 --> 00:10:10.360 visual search is i really like odin it's maintained 00:10:10.360 --> 00:10:12.820 by the us army training and doctrine command 00:10:12.820 --> 00:10:16.220 so essentially they just let you filter by different 00:10:16.220 --> 00:10:21.740 countries and different tracks so you can go 00:10:21.740 --> 00:10:24.879 to like iran you can be like all right um let's 00:10:24.879 --> 00:10:29.009 see what drones you have And this is all publicly 00:10:29.009 --> 00:10:32.629 available information. So a lot of this just 00:10:32.629 --> 00:10:35.149 derived from like news reporting, but it's a 00:10:35.149 --> 00:10:37.649 very good and quick way to go get an idea of 00:10:37.649 --> 00:10:40.190 how to better, like a good starting point for 00:10:40.190 --> 00:10:44.529 what you're looking for. Like for example, the 00:10:44.529 --> 00:10:50.190 Hadid tent 110, these just got announced publicly 00:10:50.190 --> 00:10:54.149 by Iran last year, but there's already been photos 00:10:54.149 --> 00:10:58.029 of them being used in conflict. One of the militia 00:10:58.029 --> 00:11:00.649 groups backed by Iran and Iraq just released 00:11:00.649 --> 00:11:03.490 photos and video of them launching them, which 00:11:03.490 --> 00:11:05.470 was the first time they were known to have them. 00:11:06.389 --> 00:11:08.789 I believe it was the Kuwait Ministry of Defense 00:11:08.789 --> 00:11:11.090 released photos that showed wreckage of one. 00:11:12.450 --> 00:11:14.909 So if you don't see it on the OSMP, there's another 00:11:14.909 --> 00:11:17.470 very good starting point to see if you can find 00:11:17.470 --> 00:11:20.309 any matches and then kind of try to do more of 00:11:20.309 --> 00:11:24.389 a deeper dive for starting from there. One source 00:11:24.389 --> 00:11:26.830 that I really like and recommend is called Bullet 00:11:26.830 --> 00:11:30.389 Picker. All Bullet Picker is, is they have gathered 00:11:30.389 --> 00:11:33.269 publicly available documents from government 00:11:33.269 --> 00:11:37.350 resources and like some demining organizations 00:11:37.350 --> 00:11:41.129 and they've hosted it here. So they have the 00:11:41.129 --> 00:11:44.289 raw documents in the library, but they also have 00:11:44.289 --> 00:11:47.690 an ordinance section where you can go and see 00:11:47.690 --> 00:11:51.620 ordinance and All of the information here is 00:11:51.620 --> 00:11:53.779 pulled directly from these government documents 00:11:53.779 --> 00:11:57.100 and it's linked to them. So anything here, you 00:11:57.100 --> 00:11:58.879 can go and see exactly where they're getting 00:11:58.879 --> 00:12:01.480 this information from. So they're pulling it 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:05.259 from this technical manual from the US. They're 00:12:05.259 --> 00:12:09.379 pulling it from these manuals from the US. They 00:12:09.379 --> 00:12:12.080 might not have as much information, but the information 00:12:12.080 --> 00:12:15.259 they do have is very reliable. It's specifically 00:12:15.259 --> 00:12:17.740 what government sources have said, and they have 00:12:17.740 --> 00:12:19.899 a lot of drawings from the government that give 00:12:19.899 --> 00:12:24.039 you exact measurements. Sometimes it's not as 00:12:24.039 --> 00:12:27.299 helpful for the much newer stuff, but when it 00:12:27.299 --> 00:12:30.440 comes to some of the stuff that's been used for 00:12:30.440 --> 00:12:33.220 decades, like here's the blue 109, you're going 00:12:33.220 --> 00:12:36.240 to get some very good, very reliable information. 00:12:37.980 --> 00:12:41.899 And then, one more thing that's been a hot topic 00:12:41.899 --> 00:12:45.559 is the Tomahawk missile. Bellingcat was the first 00:12:45.559 --> 00:12:49.299 to identify that a Tomahawk missile struck near 00:12:49.299 --> 00:12:52.919 the Manib school. Iranian media released a photo 00:12:52.919 --> 00:12:54.919 or the video saying, hey, this is the missile 00:12:54.919 --> 00:12:57.519 that struck the school. We were able to show 00:12:57.519 --> 00:13:00.600 that, yes, that missile struck in the area, but 00:13:00.600 --> 00:13:02.480 that missile did not directly hit the school. 00:13:03.000 --> 00:13:05.500 When that missile impacted, smoke was rising 00:13:05.500 --> 00:13:08.139 in the vicinity of the school. That's a good 00:13:08.139 --> 00:13:10.299 indicator that that wasn't the first missile 00:13:10.299 --> 00:13:13.220 that had struck. Fatal eye imagery shows a bunch 00:13:13.220 --> 00:13:16.899 of buildings had been directly hit. We were basically 00:13:16.899 --> 00:13:20.299 able to identify that missile as a Tomahawk. 00:13:21.179 --> 00:13:25.240 One of the main things about that is that Iranian 00:13:25.240 --> 00:13:29.899 missiles do not have an internal rocket motor 00:13:29.899 --> 00:13:36.860 like the Tomahawk does. This is a tomahawk missile 00:13:36.860 --> 00:13:41.840 the current model since 2004 has been the block 00:13:41.840 --> 00:13:45.059 four with a block five and If you look at the 00:13:45.059 --> 00:13:47.460 bottom, you don't have any protrusion here and 00:13:47.460 --> 00:13:51.500 you just have a small opening Where it takes 00:13:51.500 --> 00:13:53.840 air to feed the engine because the engine is 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:57.840 internal Ford of the fence where if you look 00:13:57.840 --> 00:14:06.450 at Iranian missiles, they all have a engine that's 00:14:06.450 --> 00:14:13.429 underneath so their engine is all external depending 00:14:13.429 --> 00:14:16.669 on the specific variant some of these will have 00:14:16.669 --> 00:14:19.830 the engine internal like the KH -55 and then 00:14:19.830 --> 00:14:23.450 once it's fired that missile deploys from inside 00:14:23.450 --> 00:14:27.929 and it stays outside as the missile travels the 00:14:27.929 --> 00:14:30.929 Iranian derived versions the engine just stays 00:14:30.929 --> 00:14:32.570 attached to the bottom the whole time it doesn't 00:14:32.570 --> 00:14:35.299 deploy from internally So that's a very good 00:14:35.299 --> 00:14:41.200 visual difference that you can see. Where you 00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:44.559 don't have that protruded engine on the bottom. 00:14:46.399 --> 00:14:50.080 In the example that hit Manab school and you 00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:53.039 don't have that on a Tomahawk missile. If this 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:55.440 was an Iranian missile you would see that big 00:14:55.440 --> 00:14:58.659 protrusion that starts at the fins and continues 00:14:58.659 --> 00:15:01.259 forward of the fins. So that's one of the most 00:15:01.259 --> 00:15:04.059 clearest examples that helps you Indicate that 00:15:04.059 --> 00:15:09.139 hey, this wasn't an Iranian cruise missile Another 00:15:09.139 --> 00:15:14.179 thing we did is that we actually tracked a bunch 00:15:14.179 --> 00:15:22.480 of tomahawks We geolocated I think total 10 total 00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:26.940 imagery of tomahawks Related to the war we found 00:15:26.940 --> 00:15:31.700 a bunch in Iraq traveling a kind of circular 00:15:31.700 --> 00:15:36.230 path where they seemingly went southeast of Kirkuk 00:15:36.230 --> 00:15:38.690 and then they're following one of two valleys 00:15:38.690 --> 00:15:42.470 down near the Iranian border, Iran -Iraq border, 00:15:42.850 --> 00:15:46.690 before going into Iran to hit targets. And based 00:15:46.690 --> 00:15:49.090 on some experts we talked to and kind of their 00:15:49.090 --> 00:15:51.389 known range of these missiles, it's most likely 00:15:51.389 --> 00:15:53.690 they are fired from the Mediterranean. So it 00:15:53.690 --> 00:15:56.669 looks like they flew over Syria, over Iraq, and 00:15:56.669 --> 00:16:00.629 then into Iran before they hit targets. One thing 00:16:00.629 --> 00:16:04.129 to note is that Tomahawk missiles, they follow 00:16:04.129 --> 00:16:07.269 terrain guidance. So they have a GPS guidance, 00:16:07.269 --> 00:16:09.590 but they also are taking pictures of the terrain 00:16:09.590 --> 00:16:13.389 and referencing that to onboard memory to kind 00:16:13.389 --> 00:16:17.370 of help determine where they are. So more prevalent 00:16:17.370 --> 00:16:20.730 terrain features like valleys and mountains help 00:16:20.730 --> 00:16:23.190 them better determine where they're at accurately. 00:16:23.629 --> 00:16:26.409 And it helps hide them from being detected by 00:16:26.409 --> 00:16:31.220 radar or shot down from air defenses. So another 00:16:31.220 --> 00:16:35.440 claim we saw lately was that the missile that 00:16:35.440 --> 00:16:39.259 hit near Manab came from a less direct path from 00:16:39.259 --> 00:16:43.120 where the carrier group in the Arabian Sea was 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:47.120 operating. But these missiles, by the most basic 00:16:47.120 --> 00:16:49.559 Navy information that they probably say are designed 00:16:49.559 --> 00:16:52.460 to fly at low speeds, they're designed to take 00:16:52.460 --> 00:16:57.139 evasive routes. As we've seen tracking these 00:16:57.139 --> 00:16:59.460 tomahawks and as the military has specifically 00:16:59.460 --> 00:17:02.259 stated they're designed They don't have to take 00:17:02.259 --> 00:17:05.619 direct routes They often will take indirect routes 00:17:05.619 --> 00:17:07.619 to be harder to detect and take advantage of 00:17:07.619 --> 00:17:09.839 the terrain for guidance and to protect them 00:17:09.839 --> 00:17:13.700 from being detected by air defenses and going 00:17:13.700 --> 00:17:17.039 back to one thing about the new weapons is that 00:17:17.039 --> 00:17:20.779 Especially related to tomahawks. We've seen some 00:17:20.779 --> 00:17:24.420 new stuff that wasn't publicly known before so 00:17:24.509 --> 00:17:27.009 One modification that has appeared is it looks 00:17:27.009 --> 00:17:29.809 like they're tomahawks, but that the wings are 00:17:29.809 --> 00:17:32.609 facing forward instead of back. Obviously, this 00:17:32.609 --> 00:17:36.069 wasn't known to be a modification before, but 00:17:36.069 --> 00:17:39.630 a lot of analysts, including the Warzone, have 00:17:39.630 --> 00:17:41.730 suggested that this is a modification made to 00:17:41.730 --> 00:17:44.789 make them harder to be detected by radar. Another 00:17:44.789 --> 00:17:49.450 thing that was seen was a all -black missile. 00:17:49.579 --> 00:17:52.099 All Black Tomahawk, which is believed to be a 00:17:52.099 --> 00:17:54.440 stealth coding, which also wasn't publicly known 00:17:54.440 --> 00:17:58.500 before. So, you know, sometimes there is new 00:17:58.500 --> 00:18:00.960 things. So you might not actually find an exact 00:18:00.960 --> 00:18:03.119 copy and you know, the open source munitions 00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:07.079 portal or Odin or bullet picker, but try to find 00:18:07.079 --> 00:18:10.400 what's similar and try to see like, Hey, what 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:14.019 similar changes have been made because that Black 00:18:14.019 --> 00:18:17.359 Tomahawk is new, but other weapons have a similar 00:18:17.359 --> 00:18:19.359 stealth coding which makes people think this 00:18:19.359 --> 00:18:23.380 is also intended to be a stealth coding. And 00:18:23.380 --> 00:18:26.420 then of a more weirder one that's still a puzzle 00:18:26.420 --> 00:18:31.779 is Israel released a some photos of what fits 00:18:31.779 --> 00:18:34.700 the same form and shape of a standard Mark 84 00:18:34.700 --> 00:18:38.880 2000 pound bomb but this one has red bands and 00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:41.940 it's not known specifically if this is it but 00:18:41.940 --> 00:18:45.279 this color scheme matches what's known as a US 00:18:45.279 --> 00:18:49.180 crash pad. It's a bomb designed to destroy chemical 00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:51.920 and biological agents. And it does that by having 00:18:51.920 --> 00:18:54.779 a small amount of explosives, but a large amount 00:18:54.779 --> 00:19:00.240 of white phosphorus. So we reached out to the 00:19:00.240 --> 00:19:02.680 IDF for comment. They refused to comment about 00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:04.920 what specific munition it was or give us any 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:07.660 details, but a couple weapons experts we talked 00:19:07.660 --> 00:19:11.450 to basically said, hey, you know, like this indicates 00:19:11.450 --> 00:19:13.730 an incendiary bomb. These are the markings they 00:19:13.730 --> 00:19:16.470 use for it. We just can't say specifically what 00:19:16.470 --> 00:19:19.970 its purpose is, but it does bear a striking resemblance 00:19:19.970 --> 00:19:22.630 to the crash pad. That's a known bomb that has 00:19:22.630 --> 00:19:25.849 these markings that looks this way. But we still 00:19:25.849 --> 00:19:28.009 don't know exactly what it is or how they're 00:19:28.009 --> 00:19:30.809 being used. And that's all I have. Or I could 00:19:30.809 --> 00:19:33.210 just keep rambling because I've gone about weapons 00:19:33.210 --> 00:19:36.089 for way too long. I know, I know, and I really 00:19:36.089 --> 00:19:39.210 appreciate it. But let's go to some questions. 00:19:39.349 --> 00:19:42.450 One of the main questions, and I think we should 00:19:42.450 --> 00:19:44.410 address it to start with, because we've been 00:19:44.410 --> 00:19:47.230 asked this constantly the last few weeks, is 00:19:47.230 --> 00:19:51.670 how do you know what governments have which weapons? 00:19:52.349 --> 00:19:55.710 Obviously, Trump went out and said that lots 00:19:55.710 --> 00:19:59.210 of different countries have Tomahawks, and we've 00:19:59.210 --> 00:20:03.470 explicitly said it's a US Tomahawk. So how do 00:20:03.470 --> 00:20:07.819 we know what governments have access to and what 00:20:07.819 --> 00:20:10.539 they don't? A simple question, but with perhaps 00:20:10.539 --> 00:20:15.420 a complex answer. Well, it sort of depends on 00:20:15.420 --> 00:20:18.000 which countries you're looking at because some 00:20:18.000 --> 00:20:21.019 countries are much more open about the weapons 00:20:21.019 --> 00:20:24.519 they supply and how they do it. The US is typically 00:20:24.519 --> 00:20:27.259 a lot more open about their weapons transfers, 00:20:27.940 --> 00:20:31.220 major arm sales, unless they're classified, get 00:20:31.220 --> 00:20:33.769 published by the US government. You know, there 00:20:33.769 --> 00:20:36.109 was some recent reporting that the U .S. authorized 00:20:36.109 --> 00:20:39.529 the sale of, you know, I think it was about a 00:20:39.529 --> 00:20:41.809 total of a little over 10 ,000 more bombs to 00:20:41.809 --> 00:20:44.809 Israel. And they, you know, gave specific models. 00:20:45.410 --> 00:20:48.250 So you have some stuff like that, or you'll have 00:20:48.250 --> 00:20:52.250 media reporting. There's the Stockholm Institute 00:20:52.250 --> 00:20:54.829 of Peace has a arms transfer database where they 00:20:54.829 --> 00:20:57.329 basically collate that. And you can go back and 00:20:57.329 --> 00:20:59.630 see what publicly reported weapons have gone 00:20:59.630 --> 00:21:02.079 where. So, you know, like with the crash pad, 00:21:02.200 --> 00:21:04.920 there's no, this incendiary bomb, there's no 00:21:04.920 --> 00:21:06.920 evidence we could find publicly of Israel getting 00:21:06.920 --> 00:21:10.019 that bomb by the US. So we specifically asked 00:21:10.019 --> 00:21:12.500 the state department, hey, did, was this ever 00:21:12.500 --> 00:21:14.480 transferred? You know, they declined to comment, 00:21:14.480 --> 00:21:17.599 but that's always one thing to ask is just because 00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:19.480 it's not public doesn't mean it didn't happen. 00:21:19.900 --> 00:21:23.059 But you can make a reasonable effort to try to 00:21:23.059 --> 00:21:24.680 see if there's any evidence of that, whether, 00:21:24.799 --> 00:21:28.240 you know, publicly disclosed transfers or, you 00:21:28.240 --> 00:21:31.930 know, reporting. I think Reuters did a good one 00:21:31.930 --> 00:21:35.950 on some transfers that weren't publicly disclosed. 00:21:36.170 --> 00:21:39.190 When it comes to other stuff, sometimes governments 00:21:39.190 --> 00:21:43.670 will basically post what weapons they're seizing. 00:21:44.289 --> 00:21:47.349 An important one is the US has posted images 00:21:47.349 --> 00:21:50.250 of a lot of weapons they've seized going to the 00:21:50.250 --> 00:21:52.690 Houthis in Yemen. They have been shipped by Iran. 00:21:53.869 --> 00:21:56.369 So sometimes you'll see new stuff pop up there. 00:21:56.829 --> 00:21:59.519 It's one of those things that Just because a 00:21:59.519 --> 00:22:01.640 country hasn't been reported with it before doesn't 00:22:01.640 --> 00:22:03.599 mean they can't have something now. So there's 00:22:03.599 --> 00:22:06.720 always a element of uncertainty, but there are 00:22:06.720 --> 00:22:10.559 some things you can do to try to see if it has 00:22:10.559 --> 00:22:14.720 been known to have it before. Yeah, thanks for 00:22:14.720 --> 00:22:19.000 that. Doesn't unfortunately stop Trump making 00:22:19.000 --> 00:22:22.400 sweeping statements, however. We've had some 00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:26.099 questions about the incendiary bomb. article 00:22:26.099 --> 00:22:28.220 that you've got currently up right now. So I 00:22:28.220 --> 00:22:31.980 thought I'd ask that at the minute. If I recall 00:22:31.980 --> 00:22:34.859 correctly, white phosphorus munitions are restricted 00:22:34.859 --> 00:22:37.720 under the Geneva conventions and related protocols. 00:22:38.099 --> 00:22:39.980 Yet there have been reports that Israel has continued 00:22:39.980 --> 00:22:41.980 using these types of weapons. What does international 00:22:41.980 --> 00:22:44.500 law actually say about the use of white phosphorus 00:22:44.500 --> 00:22:47.119 and would such use violate these conventions? 00:22:49.059 --> 00:22:51.740 So we actually spoke to two different legal experts 00:22:51.740 --> 00:22:54.369 specifically about the use of an incendiary bomb 00:22:54.369 --> 00:22:57.549 and the crash pad even more specifically. And 00:22:57.549 --> 00:23:00.349 they essentially said that neither Israel or 00:23:00.349 --> 00:23:04.009 Iran are a party to the specific subsection that 00:23:04.009 --> 00:23:06.069 would make the use of incendiary weapons illegal. 00:23:06.390 --> 00:23:09.890 And that the US basically did sign it, but they 00:23:09.890 --> 00:23:11.769 signed it with reservations where they basically 00:23:11.769 --> 00:23:16.690 said, we will still use these if we deem it is 00:23:16.690 --> 00:23:20.470 necessary and in accordance with principles. 00:23:21.090 --> 00:23:24.130 There's one main thing about a crash pass The 00:23:24.130 --> 00:23:26.950 intent is to destroy chemical and biological 00:23:26.950 --> 00:23:31.309 agents by the high heat Instead of you bombing 00:23:31.309 --> 00:23:34.190 a chemical biological weapon storage area and 00:23:34.190 --> 00:23:36.569 dispersing those chemical and biological agents 00:23:36.569 --> 00:23:39.589 So that's at least the intent behind the crash 00:23:39.589 --> 00:23:44.230 pad. It's very hard to say Exactly what Israel 00:23:44.230 --> 00:23:47.250 is using this bomb for or what the intent is 00:23:48.180 --> 00:23:50.440 An incendiary weapon can mean a bunch of things. 00:23:50.640 --> 00:23:53.819 It could mean that it is a crash pad. It could 00:23:53.819 --> 00:23:56.519 mean that they just have a much smaller incendiary 00:23:56.519 --> 00:23:59.099 effect. So without knowing more that just gets 00:23:59.099 --> 00:24:02.759 into a bunch more speculation. If you want to 00:24:02.759 --> 00:24:06.039 read specifically what the two experts told us 00:24:06.039 --> 00:24:09.259 about the legality, it's an article about this. 00:24:09.960 --> 00:24:12.119 There's also some links in here that give even 00:24:12.119 --> 00:24:14.180 more details about like the US reservations. 00:24:15.820 --> 00:24:18.460 We've got a bunch of questions coming into the 00:24:18.460 --> 00:24:21.480 chat now, but before we get to them, I wondered 00:24:21.480 --> 00:24:23.960 if we could just take a step back. If I gave 00:24:23.960 --> 00:24:29.259 you, if I found a low resolution video of a missile 00:24:29.259 --> 00:24:33.019 in flight, what are the first physical features 00:24:33.019 --> 00:24:37.079 you as an analyst are looking for? What would 00:24:37.079 --> 00:24:40.000 be your first port of call if you found a video 00:24:40.000 --> 00:24:42.690 online that... was claiming to be a specific 00:24:42.690 --> 00:24:45.230 missile and you wanted to fact check that or 00:24:45.230 --> 00:24:49.109 verify it. So my thing is, is first off always 00:24:49.109 --> 00:24:53.670 to look at the video quality first because one 00:24:53.670 --> 00:24:56.450 common thing is the US strikes in the Caribbean. 00:24:56.890 --> 00:24:58.769 They've keep releasing videos of that, but most 00:24:58.769 --> 00:25:00.829 of the time the munitions are moving so fast. 00:25:00.849 --> 00:25:04.349 That's just a blur. And that's on high quality 00:25:04.349 --> 00:25:07.089 video. Some of these videos that people are taking 00:25:07.089 --> 00:25:11.240 are very low quality. So that The quality specifically 00:25:11.240 --> 00:25:13.700 is going to greatly affect what you can confidently 00:25:13.700 --> 00:25:18.099 say about it. But generally, I always look for 00:25:18.099 --> 00:25:20.720 the general shape and the size. It's going to 00:25:20.720 --> 00:25:23.680 vary how specific or confident you can get depending 00:25:23.680 --> 00:25:26.880 on the quality. But I want to know roughly how 00:25:26.880 --> 00:25:30.200 big is it? And what are the main characteristics 00:25:30.200 --> 00:25:34.000 I can see? Do I see wings? Because that's a big 00:25:34.000 --> 00:25:35.920 one. If you see wings, then you're looking more 00:25:35.920 --> 00:25:38.869 like a missile or a glide bomb. If it just looks 00:25:38.869 --> 00:25:41.769 like a cylindrical object, you know, without 00:25:41.769 --> 00:25:43.869 any wings, then maybe you're looking more just 00:25:43.869 --> 00:25:47.670 a more typical bomb. And the size can help you 00:25:47.670 --> 00:25:52.250 kind of get a general ballpark to look at. But 00:25:52.250 --> 00:25:54.430 again, it's going to significantly vary where 00:25:54.430 --> 00:25:57.089 you can go for more general based on the quality. 00:25:57.609 --> 00:25:59.569 But it's very important to know that objects 00:25:59.569 --> 00:26:02.950 moving fast, especially with, depending on the 00:26:02.950 --> 00:26:05.609 video, it might blur certain features and it 00:26:05.609 --> 00:26:08.450 might elongate the object. So, you know, some 00:26:08.450 --> 00:26:11.349 of those strikes in the Caribbean have been reported 00:26:11.349 --> 00:26:14.630 to be very small bombs. They're just a couple 00:26:14.630 --> 00:26:17.170 of feet long. And then, you know, I've seen some 00:26:17.170 --> 00:26:21.089 people say, oh, that's a tomahawk, which is like 00:26:21.089 --> 00:26:23.730 20 feet long. So that's just an important thing 00:26:23.730 --> 00:26:29.250 to realize. Pay attention to munitions sizes 00:26:29.250 --> 00:26:31.789 and things like that. And also look for comparable 00:26:31.789 --> 00:26:35.420 imagery as well. In terms of If you don't have, 00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:39.000 if that video isn't clear enough, what other 00:26:39.000 --> 00:26:42.059 corresponding imagery could help? For example, 00:26:42.619 --> 00:26:45.079 it's me Ian in the chat has asked, can you use 00:26:45.079 --> 00:26:47.940 photos of damage to identify munitions? Is it 00:26:47.940 --> 00:26:51.119 even possible to tell a difference? For example, 00:26:51.279 --> 00:26:54.579 looking at the crater that a bomb might have 00:26:54.579 --> 00:26:56.920 left. Yeah. So you can use photos and damage 00:26:56.920 --> 00:27:00.359 to identify munitions, but kind of similar to 00:27:00.359 --> 00:27:03.519 the quality. and what you have specifically you 00:27:03.519 --> 00:27:06.480 might be able to get in the ballpark or you might 00:27:06.480 --> 00:27:09.980 be able to identify a specific munition because 00:27:09.980 --> 00:27:14.319 some munitions have very distinct effects. One 00:27:14.319 --> 00:27:17.160 of the Israeli versions of the Mikulet bomb that 00:27:17.160 --> 00:27:20.880 they use from drones as cubic fragmentation lining 00:27:20.880 --> 00:27:23.660 the warhead so when that specific version of 00:27:23.660 --> 00:27:27.460 the Mikulet is used you see a lot of those very 00:27:27.460 --> 00:27:31.059 kind of like consistent fragmentation pattern 00:27:31.230 --> 00:27:34.170 in all directions, which can be a very good clue, 00:27:34.190 --> 00:27:38.869 and you have a very small hole of anything. So 00:27:38.869 --> 00:27:40.650 like when it comes to something like that, especially 00:27:40.650 --> 00:27:45.069 if it's in an area where only like, like in Gaza, 00:27:45.109 --> 00:27:48.210 where Israel is the only one operating drones 00:27:48.210 --> 00:27:50.250 and conducting airstrikes, then it's a lot easier 00:27:50.250 --> 00:27:53.230 to be more confident in that answer. But when 00:27:53.230 --> 00:27:55.490 you're looking at something like Ukraine, where 00:27:55.490 --> 00:27:58.250 there's an absolute ton of weapons being used, 00:27:58.289 --> 00:28:01.430 there's new stuff being developed, You have random 00:28:01.430 --> 00:28:04.109 soldiers on the front lines just kind of putting 00:28:04.109 --> 00:28:06.910 together drone munitions in haphazard ways using 00:28:06.910 --> 00:28:09.549 whatever they can find. That's going to be a 00:28:09.549 --> 00:28:11.549 lot more difficult to find out specifically what 00:28:11.549 --> 00:28:14.609 it was without a more forensic style investigation 00:28:14.609 --> 00:28:17.210 where you actually are collecting, you know, 00:28:17.470 --> 00:28:20.529 samples of explosive residue, collecting every 00:28:20.529 --> 00:28:22.490 single fragment you can find and actually seeing 00:28:22.490 --> 00:28:27.660 what you have. When it comes to craters, One 00:28:27.660 --> 00:28:29.500 thing is in a lot of reporting you might see 00:28:29.500 --> 00:28:31.920 people saying hey, this was like a 2 ,000 pound 00:28:31.920 --> 00:28:35.200 bomb or equivalent Essentially, they're just 00:28:35.200 --> 00:28:37.700 saying the damage is consistent with that explosive 00:28:37.700 --> 00:28:39.920 Those are the most kind of like common and standard 00:28:39.920 --> 00:28:42.559 weapons, but other weapons might have similar 00:28:42.559 --> 00:28:45.799 warhead strengths So another thing to note is 00:28:45.799 --> 00:28:49.359 like a 2 ,000 pound bomb That doesn't mean it 00:28:49.359 --> 00:28:52.180 has 2 ,000 pounds of explosives. That's the general 00:28:52.180 --> 00:28:55.359 weight for it almost every time you hear 2 ,000 00:28:55.359 --> 00:28:58.819 pound 100 pound 1 ,000 pounds 500 that's the 00:28:58.819 --> 00:29:02.420 general weight of the warhead or the bomb the 00:29:02.420 --> 00:29:06.220 explosive is a lot less than that um typically 00:29:06.220 --> 00:29:10.339 it's like 40 to 50 percent if even less so the 00:29:10.339 --> 00:29:14.740 the 2 ,000 pound mark 84 bomb for example has 00:29:14.740 --> 00:29:19.180 about 980 pounds of explosives but if you're 00:29:19.180 --> 00:29:21.819 looking at the blue 109 2000 pound bunker buster 00:29:21.819 --> 00:29:24.819 bomb it has even less than that I think it's 00:29:24.819 --> 00:29:28.680 more like 500 pounds. So that's an important 00:29:28.680 --> 00:29:31.779 thing to note, but people often use those, the 00:29:31.779 --> 00:29:34.700 Mark 80 series, like the 2000 pound, the 1000 00:29:34.700 --> 00:29:36.380 pound is a good reference because they're used 00:29:36.380 --> 00:29:39.700 so often. And there's a good bit of data about 00:29:39.700 --> 00:29:43.059 roughly the crater sizes that they produce. So 00:29:43.059 --> 00:29:47.039 the crater sizes can also vary based on how the 00:29:47.039 --> 00:29:51.470 soil there, the type of fusing that it is. because 00:29:51.470 --> 00:29:53.349 these bombs can be equipped to explode in different 00:29:53.349 --> 00:29:55.470 ways. They can explode in the air for air burst, 00:29:55.710 --> 00:29:57.769 they can explode on contact with hitting a building 00:29:57.769 --> 00:30:01.130 or the ground, or even if it's not a bunker buster, 00:30:01.289 --> 00:30:03.730 it might be intended to explode after a short 00:30:03.730 --> 00:30:05.750 delay on contact where it penetrates the ground 00:30:05.750 --> 00:30:08.109 a little bit. And all of those are going to increase 00:30:08.109 --> 00:30:11.130 or decrease the kind of contact with the ground 00:30:11.130 --> 00:30:14.750 and can make the crater larger or smaller. So 00:30:14.750 --> 00:30:16.890 that's basically just a roundabout way of saying 00:30:16.890 --> 00:30:20.220 it really depends. And without like, you know, 00:30:20.279 --> 00:30:22.779 a forensic or remnants of the weapon that you 00:30:22.779 --> 00:30:25.720 can verify came from the site, you're only going 00:30:25.720 --> 00:30:28.240 to be able to get within a certain ballpark generally. 00:30:29.640 --> 00:30:32.319 Yeah, which was the case when we looked at a 00:30:32.319 --> 00:30:36.019 possible crater in a hostile blasting Gaza, we 00:30:36.019 --> 00:30:39.799 could only really suggest that it slightly ruled 00:30:39.799 --> 00:30:42.279 out some of the larger bombs because of the size 00:30:42.279 --> 00:30:45.299 of it, which I put the link of in the chat for 00:30:45.299 --> 00:30:50.579 those live listening. In terms of debris and 00:30:50.579 --> 00:30:53.900 remnants left behind, how reliable is that? If 00:30:53.900 --> 00:30:59.920 you find an image shed after the attack, how 00:30:59.920 --> 00:31:02.579 reliable can you take that information? For example, 00:31:03.220 --> 00:31:07.859 the case of the girls school in Iran, we analyzed 00:31:07.859 --> 00:31:12.779 an image that was shared by Iranian authorities 00:31:12.779 --> 00:31:15.920 with debris and remnants on the table that were 00:31:15.920 --> 00:31:18.279 found in that particular area or was said to 00:31:18.279 --> 00:31:21.079 be found in that particular area. So what can 00:31:21.079 --> 00:31:23.400 you take from this kind of imagery and what should 00:31:23.400 --> 00:31:26.160 you avoid doing? And have you seen cases where 00:31:26.160 --> 00:31:29.059 governments deliberately mislabeled debris to 00:31:29.059 --> 00:31:33.619 shape the narrative around a strike? So the important 00:31:33.619 --> 00:31:37.660 thing is when was the debris found and can you 00:31:37.660 --> 00:31:40.480 find it in the immediate aftermath? And does 00:31:40.480 --> 00:31:43.009 the debris Does the weapon the debris is showing 00:31:43.009 --> 00:31:46.150 make sense for the strike? Those are the two 00:31:46.150 --> 00:31:48.990 things like octas look at. You know, with this, 00:31:50.109 --> 00:31:52.390 we don't know when this photo was taken. It was 00:31:52.390 --> 00:31:55.750 released, you know, almost two weeks after the 00:31:55.750 --> 00:31:58.569 strike occurred. And you can very clearly see 00:31:58.569 --> 00:32:00.750 that most of the debris has been cleared. It 00:32:00.750 --> 00:32:02.589 looks much different than videos taken in the 00:32:02.589 --> 00:32:06.210 immediate aftermath. So it's very hard to say 00:32:06.210 --> 00:32:09.410 where this debris came from. You know, one thing 00:32:09.410 --> 00:32:13.049 in Gaza, particularly you'll have a lot of journalists 00:32:13.049 --> 00:32:15.549 or media influencers running into where airstrikes 00:32:15.549 --> 00:32:19.630 happen. So you'll be seeing, you know, uh, the 00:32:19.630 --> 00:32:21.509 people that were just killed by this airstrike 00:32:21.509 --> 00:32:25.269 and you might catch like, uh, glimpses of the 00:32:25.269 --> 00:32:27.190 remnants on the ground, or you might have someone 00:32:27.190 --> 00:32:29.470 picking someone up like while they're still pulling 00:32:29.470 --> 00:32:32.559 bodies out. and that makes you be a lot more 00:32:32.559 --> 00:32:34.839 confident to say like, hey, this remnant was 00:32:34.839 --> 00:32:36.759 associated with the strike because you can see 00:32:36.759 --> 00:32:39.339 it in the immediate aftermath. Whereas something 00:32:39.339 --> 00:32:44.000 like this, you know, we can't independently pie 00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:47.259 these remnants to this specific strike. We know 00:32:47.259 --> 00:32:49.319 that a tomahawk hit one of the other buildings 00:32:49.319 --> 00:32:52.180 nearby, but we can't specifically say that these 00:32:52.180 --> 00:32:56.339 remnants are from this building. So like that's 00:32:56.339 --> 00:32:58.440 important thing to acknowledge and try to assess 00:32:58.440 --> 00:33:00.519 what you can say about where the remnants came 00:33:00.519 --> 00:33:04.200 from and what's possible We can't say these are 00:33:04.200 --> 00:33:07.119 Tomahawk missile remnants We mash them up with 00:33:07.119 --> 00:33:10.160 previous remnants The New York Times did a very 00:33:10.160 --> 00:33:12.019 good piece where they tied some of the specific 00:33:12.019 --> 00:33:16.259 numbers that were visible in the photos To contracts 00:33:16.259 --> 00:33:19.559 for the Tomahawk missile from Ball Aerospace 00:33:19.559 --> 00:33:22.940 So like that's another good thing to say hey, 00:33:23.099 --> 00:33:25.880 this is a Tomahawk missile Now the next question 00:33:25.880 --> 00:33:29.740 is does it make sense? Does the weapon they're 00:33:29.740 --> 00:33:31.880 purporting to show remnants of does that fit 00:33:31.880 --> 00:33:34.480 the strike, you know? Did it do that this damage 00:33:34.480 --> 00:33:36.640 is it way too small? Is there anything fishy 00:33:36.640 --> 00:33:40.400 about that? That's always a common thing That 00:33:40.400 --> 00:33:42.279 says even if you can see that aftermath. It's 00:33:42.279 --> 00:33:46.720 like if you're trying to tell me like a small 00:33:46.720 --> 00:33:49.319 60 millimeter mortar took down this whole building. 00:33:49.319 --> 00:33:52.000 I would say absolutely not. I don't believe you 00:33:52.000 --> 00:33:56.640 for a second But, you know, Tomahawks have 300 00:33:56.640 --> 00:34:03.000 -pound warheads of explosives. They can destroy 00:34:03.000 --> 00:34:05.980 significant amount of structures. So, like, this 00:34:05.980 --> 00:34:09.019 kind of fits. We know that another Tomahawk hit 00:34:09.019 --> 00:34:11.500 nearby. We just can't say where these remnants 00:34:11.500 --> 00:34:16.710 came from specifically. Debris and remnant analysis 00:34:16.710 --> 00:34:20.090 becoming easier or harder as weapons are becoming 00:34:20.090 --> 00:34:23.389 more modular or stealth oriented. Are you finding 00:34:23.389 --> 00:34:26.789 it more difficult to identify key parts of missiles? 00:34:28.329 --> 00:34:31.489 Not really. If anything, it sort of helps because 00:34:31.489 --> 00:34:35.050 in the most simplistic terms, the more complex 00:34:35.050 --> 00:34:38.610 munition is, the more parts you will have that 00:34:38.610 --> 00:34:41.110 might survive the explosion and be identifiable. 00:34:41.519 --> 00:34:48.300 So if you look at a Mark 84 bomb, it is, or let's 00:34:48.300 --> 00:34:51.440 just use this blue 109 example. The whole green 00:34:51.440 --> 00:34:54.420 part is the bomb body. So that is just steel 00:34:54.420 --> 00:34:57.840 filled with explosives. And then the grayish 00:34:57.840 --> 00:34:59.940 parts are the parts of the bomb guidance kit 00:34:59.940 --> 00:35:03.840 that gets attached onto it. So when that bomb 00:35:03.840 --> 00:35:07.000 explodes, you're going to find fragments of the 00:35:07.000 --> 00:35:09.159 bomb body, but that's a lot harder to identify. 00:35:09.980 --> 00:35:12.039 especially if you're just looking at photos, 00:35:12.739 --> 00:35:15.840 but the guidance kits have a lot of components 00:35:15.840 --> 00:35:19.880 that are farther away from the bomb, from the 00:35:19.880 --> 00:35:22.599 explosives. So those are more likely to survive 00:35:22.599 --> 00:35:25.559 and be in a recognizable form. And also they 00:35:25.559 --> 00:35:28.500 might get sheared off on impact. You know, if 00:35:28.500 --> 00:35:30.360 this bomb hits a building and it's on a delayed 00:35:30.360 --> 00:35:32.599 fusing, the bomb might penetrate a floor or two 00:35:32.599 --> 00:35:34.800 before exploding, but the JDAM kit might get 00:35:34.800 --> 00:35:36.719 ripped off when it first hits the roof. So, you 00:35:36.719 --> 00:35:38.920 know, that gives a much better chance of that 00:35:38.920 --> 00:35:42.599 remnant surviving. And missiles are just a much 00:35:42.599 --> 00:35:45.619 more complex version of that, especially Tomahawks. 00:35:46.460 --> 00:35:50.340 So, you know, like one example here is that this 00:35:50.340 --> 00:35:52.320 blue piece right here is part of the engine. 00:35:52.739 --> 00:35:55.980 And if you look at photos of Tomahawks, that's 00:35:55.980 --> 00:35:59.320 about as far back from the actual warhead as 00:35:59.320 --> 00:36:01.960 you can get. So all of those extra pieces in 00:36:01.960 --> 00:36:04.300 these like complex missiles that are very large 00:36:04.300 --> 00:36:06.119 with all these guidance kits and all these wings, 00:36:06.199 --> 00:36:08.690 it just gives you Extra remnants that have a 00:36:08.690 --> 00:36:10.690 better chance of surviving intact that you might 00:36:10.690 --> 00:36:13.530 be able to identify And the u .s. Specifically 00:36:13.530 --> 00:36:16.150 has a lot of different subcontractors and they 00:36:16.150 --> 00:36:18.449 have a lot of different um codes that they'll 00:36:18.449 --> 00:36:20.369 put on the missile and stuff that you can usually 00:36:20.369 --> 00:36:24.250 use via open sources to find What weapons it's 00:36:24.250 --> 00:36:27.690 associated with? for example, uh the hellfire 00:36:27.690 --> 00:36:30.670 missile and the the newer kind of similar version 00:36:30.670 --> 00:36:34.139 the jagum they Lockheed Martin reports that they 00:36:34.139 --> 00:36:37.800 have over 270 suppliers in the US supplying parts 00:36:37.800 --> 00:36:40.340 for that missile. And you know, the Hellfire 00:36:40.340 --> 00:36:42.880 is a lot less complex than something like a Tomahawk 00:36:42.880 --> 00:36:48.260 missile. So to keep it short, the less sophisticated 00:36:48.260 --> 00:36:50.219 munitions are usually the ones that are harder 00:36:50.219 --> 00:36:53.679 to get a conclusive ID on when you're just looking 00:36:53.679 --> 00:36:56.440 at it from photos. That's really useful to know. 00:36:57.440 --> 00:36:59.780 And for those listening back to the podcast, 00:36:59.980 --> 00:37:03.920 you can find the link to these images that Trevor's 00:37:03.920 --> 00:37:08.460 just been talking about in the podcast description. 00:37:09.820 --> 00:37:12.380 Zara's just asked a follow -up to that. How might 00:37:12.380 --> 00:37:15.480 we go about identifying those specific pieces? 00:37:15.699 --> 00:37:17.960 Will reverse image search help us to find the 00:37:17.960 --> 00:37:20.500 open sources that tell us about these individual 00:37:20.500 --> 00:37:23.440 pieces? So I haven't actually tried reverse image 00:37:23.440 --> 00:37:26.489 searching these ones just because I used to work 00:37:26.489 --> 00:37:28.670 at Ares on the open source munitions portal. 00:37:28.869 --> 00:37:32.570 So I was working there during the US strikes 00:37:32.570 --> 00:37:34.590 in Yemen. So I've spent a lot of time looking 00:37:34.590 --> 00:37:37.389 at Tomahawk missile parts, especially like relatively 00:37:37.389 --> 00:37:40.510 recently, even before this war. So I was like, 00:37:40.730 --> 00:37:43.170 okay, this is a Tomahawk missile. So I just went 00:37:43.170 --> 00:37:45.349 and like double checked, make sure I wasn't missing 00:37:45.349 --> 00:37:48.489 anything. But for stuff like remnants, my first 00:37:48.489 --> 00:37:50.349 place would be the open source munitions portal. 00:37:50.630 --> 00:37:53.440 You can either go generally, but If you're more 00:37:53.440 --> 00:37:55.099 getting new into this, I would just go to one 00:37:55.099 --> 00:37:57.400 of the war collection pages. So look, they've 00:37:57.400 --> 00:38:01.179 already added the ones from the school. All right, 00:38:01.179 --> 00:38:02.679 they haven't added any ones from that. But if 00:38:02.679 --> 00:38:08.340 we go to Yemen, there's some from here. So here 00:38:08.340 --> 00:38:12.460 is some of the same parts from Tabahag missiles 00:38:12.460 --> 00:38:16.119 that were fired in Yemen. Here's the same loader 00:38:16.119 --> 00:38:20.429 component. So that's the first place I would 00:38:20.429 --> 00:38:23.929 go. It's very easy to kind of clue in and help 00:38:23.929 --> 00:38:26.710 you know if you're on the right track. And then 00:38:26.710 --> 00:38:29.489 what the New York Times did is this fragment 00:38:29.489 --> 00:38:32.590 at the top right that actually has a visible 00:38:32.590 --> 00:38:35.449 contract code and they looked up the contract 00:38:35.449 --> 00:38:38.030 and found that it was associated with a contract 00:38:38.030 --> 00:38:40.610 that started delivering this component in 2014 00:38:40.610 --> 00:38:44.769 for Tomahawk missiles. Since then a video has 00:38:44.769 --> 00:38:47.110 come out of these same components, but it shows 00:38:47.110 --> 00:38:50.050 them in more detail So you can even get more 00:38:50.050 --> 00:38:53.710 information about the actual markings on it So 00:38:53.710 --> 00:38:55.769 it really just depends on what components you 00:38:55.769 --> 00:38:58.610 have the quality of the imagery Because if you 00:38:58.610 --> 00:39:00.929 didn't have that little gray data plate visible, 00:39:01.110 --> 00:39:02.989 then it would be a bit harder to try to find 00:39:02.989 --> 00:39:07.690 it Just based off markings Sometimes they'll 00:39:07.690 --> 00:39:10.110 have what's called a cage code, which is a five 00:39:10.110 --> 00:39:14.940 digit code And that indicates the contractor 00:39:14.940 --> 00:39:17.860 that made that component. So Raytheon's cage 00:39:17.860 --> 00:39:22.599 code is 15090. You can actually go to this website, 00:39:22.940 --> 00:39:27.139 cagedla .mil, and you can search the specific 00:39:27.139 --> 00:39:31.199 cage codes. So you search it, boom, that's Raytheon. 00:39:32.480 --> 00:39:34.920 And then it gives you details like this. So if 00:39:34.920 --> 00:39:37.199 you see something like that, the Raytheon cage 00:39:37.199 --> 00:39:40.980 code that you know Raytheon, made that component. 00:39:41.599 --> 00:39:44.539 But like I said earlier with, you know, the Hellfire 00:39:44.539 --> 00:39:48.900 example, multiple companies will work on these 00:39:48.900 --> 00:39:52.460 missiles and components. So if you see multiple 00:39:52.460 --> 00:39:55.300 different cage codes, that doesn't mean that, 00:39:55.300 --> 00:39:57.119 you know, it's like different munitions. That 00:39:57.119 --> 00:39:59.380 just means that multiple contractors made parts 00:39:59.380 --> 00:40:02.780 for that. But like that's another good indicator 00:40:02.780 --> 00:40:06.079 is There's what's called the prime contractors 00:40:06.079 --> 00:40:08.300 and they're the ones that are responsible overall 00:40:08.300 --> 00:40:11.239 for the weapon that got the contract. So, Tomahawk 00:40:11.239 --> 00:40:14.639 Missiles, Raytheon is the prime contractor. But, 00:40:14.639 --> 00:40:17.739 you know, Ball Aerospace is a subcontractor that 00:40:17.739 --> 00:40:19.840 made that GPS component that the New York Times 00:40:19.840 --> 00:40:23.179 looked at. So, there's kind of differences there, 00:40:23.179 --> 00:40:25.619 but that can also help key you in. You know, 00:40:25.619 --> 00:40:28.059 if someone's saying, hey, this is this certain 00:40:28.059 --> 00:40:30.559 weapon and there's a cage code on it and the 00:40:30.559 --> 00:40:33.659 cage code comes back to, you know, Lockheed Martin 00:40:33.659 --> 00:40:36.320 and they're saying it's a tomahawk. Well, does 00:40:36.320 --> 00:40:38.199 Lockheed Martin have anything to do with that? 00:40:39.400 --> 00:40:41.099 That's always like a good thing that can help 00:40:41.099 --> 00:40:44.699 you kind of like start looking. And there, there's 00:40:44.699 --> 00:40:46.760 a lot of good reporting about cage codes and 00:40:46.760 --> 00:40:49.280 some of the other markings, um, especially from, 00:40:49.280 --> 00:40:52.440 uh, the previous human strikes, uh, you know, 00:40:52.440 --> 00:40:54.739 like a decade ago, Bellingcat did some good stuff 00:40:54.739 --> 00:40:58.039 with, um, the paveway bomb guidance kits that 00:40:58.039 --> 00:41:01.119 were being supplied. It was even found via cage 00:41:01.119 --> 00:41:03.659 code that an Italian company was making some 00:41:03.659 --> 00:41:07.800 of the bombs that were being used. Super useful. 00:41:07.840 --> 00:41:11.480 And I've just linked that site in the chat and 00:41:11.480 --> 00:41:14.940 I'll make sure it's included in the podcast description 00:41:14.940 --> 00:41:19.199 as well. Only about 20 minutes left. So if you 00:41:19.199 --> 00:41:21.019 have questions, keep them coming in. We've got 00:41:21.019 --> 00:41:23.880 a few to get through. I wanted to ask quickly 00:41:23.880 --> 00:41:26.400 though, as we're talking about identification, 00:41:26.699 --> 00:41:32.000 in terms of new variants of familiar weapons. 00:41:32.800 --> 00:41:34.880 What kind of visual differences might indicate, 00:41:35.300 --> 00:41:38.019 what are the most common visual differences that 00:41:38.019 --> 00:41:40.159 might indicate something as a familiar weapon, 00:41:40.199 --> 00:41:43.380 but a new variant? How do you kind of spot that? 00:41:44.940 --> 00:41:50.079 So generally it's a lot harder. Cause you know, 00:41:50.079 --> 00:41:53.019 you might say you have like a Hellfire missile 00:41:53.019 --> 00:41:56.219 is a great example. People will just say a hellfire, 00:41:56.360 --> 00:41:59.280 but there are an absolute ton of variants of 00:41:59.280 --> 00:42:01.239 the hellfire with a bunch of different changes 00:42:01.239 --> 00:42:05.179 It's been in use for decades So, you know, you'll 00:42:05.179 --> 00:42:07.940 have different small differences into the rocket 00:42:07.940 --> 00:42:09.539 motor to give it a little bit of extra range 00:42:09.539 --> 00:42:12.159 or like the actual components and you also have 00:42:12.159 --> 00:42:16.340 different warheads, so When someone says a hellfire 00:42:16.340 --> 00:42:18.920 or like a small diameter bomb like a gbu -39 00:42:19.360 --> 00:42:21.500 It's important to realize that usually those 00:42:21.500 --> 00:42:23.840 are more general terms and there's a bunch of 00:42:23.840 --> 00:42:26.900 different versions within that. So trying to 00:42:26.900 --> 00:42:30.880 find out usually like what is a new variant is 00:42:30.880 --> 00:42:34.380 going to be very difficult unless it's very specific. 00:42:35.460 --> 00:42:38.400 You know like the Hellfire R9X like Ninja missile 00:42:38.400 --> 00:42:41.539 that's a very good example because that's a very 00:42:41.539 --> 00:42:44.380 distinctly different modification that wasn't 00:42:44.380 --> 00:42:47.760 known before and there's no prior information 00:42:47.760 --> 00:42:50.469 about that. So it's very clearly like, it's pretty 00:42:50.469 --> 00:42:53.769 easy to say, yes, this is new. This is different. 00:42:54.190 --> 00:42:56.829 And you have a marking on that. Some of the debris 00:42:56.829 --> 00:42:59.409 when that came out specifically says Hellfire 00:42:59.409 --> 00:43:02.110 on or R9X on it. So you can say, Hey, this is 00:43:02.110 --> 00:43:08.469 new. Or like the, the Tomahawk, apparent Tomahawk 00:43:08.469 --> 00:43:10.090 missile with like the four swept wings. Like 00:43:10.090 --> 00:43:12.849 that is a very obvious, visibly different missile. 00:43:13.700 --> 00:43:16.679 But a lot of the times it's not going to be very 00:43:16.679 --> 00:43:19.480 easy to determine without a lot of work or like 00:43:19.480 --> 00:43:22.860 very good quality photos or maybe even like several 00:43:22.860 --> 00:43:27.300 different examples of remnants. Good to know. 00:43:28.260 --> 00:43:30.300 Jake Golden, our colleague, has also written 00:43:30.300 --> 00:43:33.079 in the chat a useful point. It's also useful 00:43:33.079 --> 00:43:35.440 to know what you can find out via numbers on 00:43:35.440 --> 00:43:38.119 non -US munitions like Russian cruise missiles. 00:43:39.409 --> 00:43:41.630 ConflictArmentResearch did a good field investigation 00:43:41.630 --> 00:43:47.150 on the KH101 here and he's linked to a story 00:43:47.150 --> 00:43:50.829 map. So I will make sure that that's also featured 00:43:50.829 --> 00:43:55.389 in the description of the podcast. A few questions 00:43:55.389 --> 00:43:59.429 here in general about the conflict with Iran. 00:43:59.610 --> 00:44:02.230 I'm not sure how much you know about this Trevor, 00:44:02.369 --> 00:44:04.900 but perhaps we can kind of address it. Someone's 00:44:04.900 --> 00:44:08.159 asked, because of the widespread internet shutdown, 00:44:08.440 --> 00:44:11.099 what methods can OSINT researchers use to identify 00:44:11.099 --> 00:44:14.119 and obtain reliable sources or information from 00:44:14.119 --> 00:44:16.920 inside the country? And another person's asked 00:44:16.920 --> 00:44:19.059 if you can talk a little bit more about the ways 00:44:19.059 --> 00:44:21.920 some of the missiles and drones are being intercepted 00:44:21.920 --> 00:44:24.199 in the region. Are you able to talk to that? 00:44:24.559 --> 00:44:27.920 Yeah, so as far as the kind of like OSINT methods 00:44:27.920 --> 00:44:30.829 we can use to obtain and reliable sources of 00:44:30.829 --> 00:44:33.849 information. I think the Manab school video showing 00:44:33.849 --> 00:44:36.110 the tomahawk is a good example because that was 00:44:36.110 --> 00:44:39.730 released by Iranian state media amidst an internet 00:44:39.730 --> 00:44:43.389 shutdown. So it's important to assess what these 00:44:43.389 --> 00:44:46.250 videos are showing and how you can verify them. 00:44:46.730 --> 00:44:48.929 The specific video was released saying that it 00:44:48.929 --> 00:44:50.610 showed the school being struck specifically. 00:44:51.050 --> 00:44:53.210 We were able to show that no the school isn't 00:44:53.210 --> 00:44:55.969 being struck specifically in that video but it 00:44:55.969 --> 00:44:59.500 is of the same area and that there's doesn't 00:44:59.500 --> 00:45:01.440 appear to be any AI tampering, it appears to 00:45:01.440 --> 00:45:04.940 be legitimate. There is damage in the area where 00:45:04.940 --> 00:45:10.900 the missile hit. So that's one good way of just 00:45:10.900 --> 00:45:13.059 taking in information that you're finding with 00:45:13.059 --> 00:45:15.820 a critical lens and seeing what you can actually 00:45:15.820 --> 00:45:20.579 say about it. The other good one is satellite 00:45:20.579 --> 00:45:24.639 imagery. There's been Some satellite services 00:45:24.639 --> 00:45:26.900 are delaying publications, but some still doing 00:45:26.900 --> 00:45:29.159 it but even then that's a great way to verify 00:45:29.159 --> 00:45:34.000 what's happening because Iran is releasing what 00:45:34.000 --> 00:45:38.840 they want just like Israel and the DOD is releasing 00:45:38.840 --> 00:45:41.599 video they want showing strikes. So, you know, 00:45:41.619 --> 00:45:43.420 like they've said they the US said they carried 00:45:43.420 --> 00:45:47.559 out over 5 ,000 strikes now, but the image the 00:45:47.559 --> 00:45:49.599 videos and images they really showing those strikes 00:45:49.599 --> 00:45:52.019 is substantially less than 5 ,000, you know, 00:45:52.019 --> 00:45:55.510 so it's It's important to kind of keep in context 00:45:55.510 --> 00:45:58.389 in your frame of mind what you're actually seeing 00:45:58.389 --> 00:46:01.050 in comparison to how big this scale is. We're 00:46:01.050 --> 00:46:03.190 seeing a very small proportion of everything 00:46:03.190 --> 00:46:06.630 that's happening. So I'd say just verifying what 00:46:06.630 --> 00:46:09.769 you can and acknowledging what you can't say 00:46:09.769 --> 00:46:13.110 or how limited your view is. But I'd say satellite 00:46:13.110 --> 00:46:15.489 imagery is probably like one of the best things 00:46:15.489 --> 00:46:18.010 we can use right now just because you can get 00:46:18.010 --> 00:46:20.690 the best view on what's happening at a more general 00:46:20.690 --> 00:46:27.119 level. Um, as far as the interceptions go, so 00:46:27.119 --> 00:46:29.320 there's a lot of different systems being used. 00:46:29.619 --> 00:46:33.659 Um, so the iron dome and some of the other systems 00:46:33.659 --> 00:46:36.699 are more designed to take out like drones and 00:46:36.699 --> 00:46:38.579 smaller rockets, but then you have ballistic 00:46:38.579 --> 00:46:41.659 missile defenses, you know, like the U S thad, 00:46:41.820 --> 00:46:47.280 the, um, the Patriot. So some of these work by 00:46:47.280 --> 00:46:49.320 you're essentially firing a missile and that 00:46:49.320 --> 00:46:51.639 missile explodes and tries to blow up. You know 00:46:51.639 --> 00:46:54.019 the drone or the rocket like that's how the iron 00:46:54.019 --> 00:46:57.260 dome works a lot of the ballistic missile defenses 00:46:57.260 --> 00:47:03.179 um, like the the patriots and um the fad and 00:47:03.179 --> 00:47:06.519 the arrow They work by what's called hit to kill 00:47:06.519 --> 00:47:10.099 where they're trying to hit the incoming Missile 00:47:10.099 --> 00:47:12.500 directly and that's how they destroy it by the 00:47:12.500 --> 00:47:17.119 kinetic impact You can see some of the remnants 00:47:17.119 --> 00:47:19.860 of those, as you mentioned earlier, falling as 00:47:19.860 --> 00:47:23.440 well into across the regions as they try to defend 00:47:23.440 --> 00:47:27.340 some horrific imagery coming out across the region. 00:47:27.940 --> 00:47:29.639 A question that we had at the very beginning 00:47:29.639 --> 00:47:32.179 of the talk, which I think kind of fits now. 00:47:32.519 --> 00:47:35.559 is with the rapid rise of AI -generated content 00:47:35.559 --> 00:47:38.460 and deepfakes, what steps should OSINT investigators 00:47:38.460 --> 00:47:40.679 take to verify that the information they are 00:47:40.679 --> 00:47:43.179 analyzing is authentic rather than AI -generated 00:47:43.179 --> 00:47:47.260 or manipulated? You mentioned just then the fact 00:47:47.260 --> 00:47:51.579 that we do see manipulated and recycled imagery 00:47:51.579 --> 00:47:57.019 actually as well in any conflict. So how do you 00:47:57.019 --> 00:48:02.039 avoid being tricked by AI, for example? I mean, 00:48:02.159 --> 00:48:04.519 I think the best example when it comes to like 00:48:04.519 --> 00:48:07.619 munition remnants as a first image search, all 00:48:07.619 --> 00:48:10.320 the AI stuff I've seen like claiming to specifically 00:48:10.320 --> 00:48:13.119 be weapons or like remnants has been pretty bad 00:48:13.119 --> 00:48:16.559 so far. But, you know, there is always like people 00:48:16.559 --> 00:48:19.119 trying to reuse debris. There is a very popular 00:48:19.119 --> 00:48:20.920 example that didn't make it into our article, 00:48:20.980 --> 00:48:24.300 but someone was reusing a video from Ukraine. 00:48:25.110 --> 00:48:28.130 saying it was a drone that hit Cyprus and Russia 00:48:28.130 --> 00:48:31.329 was supplying Iran with their version of the 00:48:31.329 --> 00:48:34.210 Shahed. So that was a very important thing that 00:48:34.210 --> 00:48:37.469 people fact checked and were able to say like, 00:48:37.469 --> 00:48:40.349 no, this wasn't. And as far as I know, I still 00:48:40.349 --> 00:48:43.469 haven't seen the original video, but a photo 00:48:43.469 --> 00:48:46.389 from that video of the remnant matched an article 00:48:46.389 --> 00:48:49.730 from 2024, which is how people were able to identify, 00:48:50.329 --> 00:48:54.550 hey, this is reused. So like, My biggest thing 00:48:54.550 --> 00:48:58.469 would be, you know, extreme claims. I would definitely 00:48:58.469 --> 00:49:00.949 be a lot more cautious of, and, you know, would 00:49:00.949 --> 00:49:03.650 want to spend a lot more time looking into to 00:49:03.650 --> 00:49:07.289 validate that it's actually real, you know, and 00:49:07.289 --> 00:49:09.289 also looking at the source of where it's coming 00:49:09.289 --> 00:49:16.050 from. Like, Hey, um, why is this, uh, for example, 00:49:16.050 --> 00:49:18.849 like I saw it being shared by Ukraine account, 00:49:19.030 --> 00:49:20.789 like pro -Ukraine accounts saying, Hey, this 00:49:20.789 --> 00:49:23.809 is a Shahed and Cyprus. Well. Where did this 00:49:23.809 --> 00:49:26.449 come from? Is this actually being posted by media 00:49:26.449 --> 00:49:29.650 in Cyprus? Where are you claiming you got it 00:49:29.650 --> 00:49:32.070 from? And this kind of goes back to one of my 00:49:32.070 --> 00:49:35.130 biggest beefs with the current information space 00:49:35.130 --> 00:49:37.190 around open source is that a lot of people don't 00:49:37.190 --> 00:49:40.230 cite their sources, which makes everyone have 00:49:40.230 --> 00:49:43.289 to waste a lot of time trying to verify where 00:49:43.289 --> 00:49:46.269 this information is from. If everyone cited their 00:49:46.269 --> 00:49:49.309 sources, then you could very quickly find out 00:49:49.309 --> 00:49:52.460 who's spreading this information. or better evaluate 00:49:52.460 --> 00:49:58.460 how reliable the sources. Always link your sources 00:49:58.460 --> 00:50:02.639 guys in here and on other social platforms, please. 00:50:03.840 --> 00:50:09.099 In terms of our latest report in which you showed 00:50:09.099 --> 00:50:12.940 it in your talk where we had mapped out tomahawks 00:50:12.940 --> 00:50:17.139 flying over Iraqi airspace, possibly Syria and 00:50:17.139 --> 00:50:23.440 also how did we kind of get an estimate about 00:50:23.440 --> 00:50:26.380 the actual missiles, the number of missiles flying 00:50:26.380 --> 00:50:29.760 over. How can you distinguish between multiple 00:50:29.760 --> 00:50:33.260 missiles versus kind of the same missile captured 00:50:33.260 --> 00:50:35.500 from different angles or in different clips? 00:50:35.900 --> 00:50:38.539 Is it possible to get an accurate estimate of 00:50:38.539 --> 00:50:41.860 how many you might be seeing in a given area? 00:50:42.620 --> 00:50:45.480 So we went with the most conservative estimate 00:50:45.480 --> 00:50:48.599 if we could more reliably be confident in the 00:50:48.599 --> 00:50:51.380 exact times that the videos were filmed then 00:50:51.380 --> 00:50:54.539 we could Better assess that but we weren't able 00:50:54.539 --> 00:50:57.820 to be confident enough that the video showed 00:50:57.820 --> 00:51:01.539 different or unique waves So what we did was 00:51:01.539 --> 00:51:03.900 is we just went with the minimum tally we could 00:51:03.900 --> 00:51:09.000 in each area. So just in these seven or eight 00:51:09.000 --> 00:51:11.570 videos alone The total tally was something like 00:51:11.570 --> 00:51:16.329 70 missiles spotted. But since we couldn't determine 00:51:16.329 --> 00:51:19.610 for sure if they showed different waves at different 00:51:19.610 --> 00:51:23.130 times or what, we just went with the number of 00:51:23.130 --> 00:51:24.969 tomahawks we could identify in a single video, 00:51:25.010 --> 00:51:28.269 which one video showed 20. We just went with 00:51:28.269 --> 00:51:31.230 at least 20 tomahawks. And then we had a crash 00:51:31.230 --> 00:51:34.050 one here, which if it crashes in Syria, it won't 00:51:34.050 --> 00:51:37.409 be able to be flying in Iraq. So we counted 21 00:51:37.409 --> 00:51:41.719 here. in Iraq and Syria. And then we counted 00:51:41.719 --> 00:51:47.360 one in Manab and then 13 flew over. We passed 00:51:47.360 --> 00:51:50.039 a ship a few days later. So our total count we 00:51:50.039 --> 00:51:54.380 went with was 35 at least. And we counted six 00:51:54.380 --> 00:51:57.000 over Tehran, but again, we couldn't determine 00:51:57.000 --> 00:51:59.699 for sure that it wasn't six of the ones we saw 00:51:59.699 --> 00:52:02.619 over here. So we went with the most conservative 00:52:02.619 --> 00:52:05.880 count we could just because we couldn't reliably 00:52:07.220 --> 00:52:11.039 determine anything more specific than that. And 00:52:11.039 --> 00:52:14.260 you can see the specific locations in that interactive 00:52:14.260 --> 00:52:17.639 map made by our brilliant colleague Logan Williams 00:52:17.639 --> 00:52:21.320 as well, if you click into the link. Cyber has 00:52:21.320 --> 00:52:23.980 put in the chat, I think the open source information 00:52:23.980 --> 00:52:27.420 would be reduced by about 80 % once you remove 00:52:27.420 --> 00:52:30.179 copied plagiarized content and only leave genuine 00:52:30.179 --> 00:52:33.179 original content. Somebody else has just asked, 00:52:33.219 --> 00:52:35.300 do we know whether any of these munitions incorporate 00:52:35.300 --> 00:52:38.099 GPS guidance or tracking systems? If so, is it 00:52:38.099 --> 00:52:40.579 possible to identify the manufacturers or vendors 00:52:40.579 --> 00:52:43.260 and determine technical details such as the frequencies 00:52:43.260 --> 00:52:46.059 of communication bands those systems might use? 00:52:48.260 --> 00:52:50.960 I don't know if you can determine the frequency 00:52:50.960 --> 00:52:54.039 or communication bands. That's outside my knowledge. 00:52:54.579 --> 00:52:58.400 But you can see who makes the GPS systems and 00:52:58.400 --> 00:53:01.130 stuff like that. There's another great remnant 00:53:01.130 --> 00:53:05.090 that shows one from a JASM missile, and it also 00:53:05.090 --> 00:53:08.329 shows that the GPS system, at least in part, 00:53:08.469 --> 00:53:11.510 is made by Ball Aerospace. Sorry, my tabs are 00:53:11.510 --> 00:53:16.389 a mess, but yeah, right here. JASM slash GPS 00:53:16.389 --> 00:53:19.650 antenna, so Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation, 00:53:19.849 --> 00:53:22.789 and then there's their CAGE code. So you have 00:53:22.789 --> 00:53:25.809 13993, and that's something you could plug into 00:53:25.809 --> 00:53:29.000 CAGE .dll .mil. And then here's the contract 00:53:29.000 --> 00:53:31.719 number, here's the part number. Those are all 00:53:31.719 --> 00:53:34.760 good things you can look up. Say if you had a 00:53:34.760 --> 00:53:37.659 similar remnant that the ball thing was obscured, 00:53:37.960 --> 00:53:40.099 you could get a good idea who made it with all 00:53:40.099 --> 00:53:43.239 that other information. We've been asked if you 00:53:43.239 --> 00:53:45.860 could link that in the chat. It's amazing what 00:53:45.860 --> 00:53:50.420 detail remains after explosions. Hey, really 00:53:50.420 --> 00:53:52.739 useful. Oh, I see Jake's already done it. Thank 00:53:52.739 --> 00:53:57.400 you, Jake. Amazing. We're coming close to time 00:53:57.400 --> 00:53:59.400 actually. A couple of people in the chat have 00:53:59.400 --> 00:54:01.139 said that they could listen to you speak for 00:54:01.139 --> 00:54:05.119 hours. But I wanted to just start to wrap up 00:54:05.119 --> 00:54:08.260 the talk a little, talking about how, for example, 00:54:08.380 --> 00:54:09.780 if someone's listening and they want to kind 00:54:09.780 --> 00:54:13.460 of really become an expert in this space, what 00:54:13.460 --> 00:54:19.079 kind of skill sets do you need to become a specialist 00:54:19.079 --> 00:54:22.579 in munitions analysis? What kind of things do 00:54:22.579 --> 00:54:26.539 you need to train on? To get where you are, Trevor. 00:54:28.559 --> 00:54:32.019 Um, I would say one thing is just, um, look a 00:54:32.019 --> 00:54:36.179 lot, like look at the OSMP try to find out if 00:54:36.179 --> 00:54:37.940 you're unsure how they're getting to an answer, 00:54:38.039 --> 00:54:41.159 try to find out why. But at the most basic level, 00:54:41.219 --> 00:54:43.739 I would say it helps a lot if you can kind of 00:54:43.739 --> 00:54:47.460 get a, even a basic understanding of what types 00:54:47.460 --> 00:54:50.579 of weapons are delivered by what systems. So, 00:54:50.579 --> 00:54:53.500 you know. Some are like like the tomahawk is 00:54:53.500 --> 00:54:57.000 fired by ships Some bombs are dropped by aircraft 00:54:57.000 --> 00:54:59.579 and then you have like artillery so if you kind 00:54:59.579 --> 00:55:01.539 of look into that and understand like what makes 00:55:01.539 --> 00:55:05.659 a rocket or a missile versus a bomb and how those 00:55:05.659 --> 00:55:08.019 are delivered there's kind of a logic to weapons 00:55:08.019 --> 00:55:09.800 and the more you can understand that kind of 00:55:09.800 --> 00:55:12.760 like the faster you can find the right line of 00:55:12.760 --> 00:55:17.460 inquiry to follow and just I've heard some people 00:55:17.460 --> 00:55:22.130 say that like geolocations are vibes based sometimes 00:55:22.130 --> 00:55:24.130 munitions can be the same way when you get started 00:55:24.130 --> 00:55:25.849 where you can look at something and just be like 00:55:25.849 --> 00:55:28.889 this kind of feels like this and you know you 00:55:28.889 --> 00:55:30.550 can kind of just use that as a starting point 00:55:30.550 --> 00:55:32.909 and see if you can find something that actually 00:55:32.909 --> 00:55:35.429 reinforces that vibe you'd be like this kind 00:55:35.429 --> 00:55:37.309 of looks like more sophisticated more complex 00:55:37.309 --> 00:55:39.869 like maybe it's a missile this country operates 00:55:39.869 --> 00:55:42.369 there like maybe i can start looking at that 00:55:42.369 --> 00:55:46.889 way whereas oh you know this looks very cheap 00:55:46.889 --> 00:55:50.469 it has um Maybe not as good construction. Maybe 00:55:50.469 --> 00:55:54.630 that's you know, like an Iranian drone that they're 00:55:54.630 --> 00:55:57.570 firing or supplying to their the militia groups 00:55:57.570 --> 00:56:00.690 they support so There's kind of a lot of just 00:56:00.690 --> 00:56:02.969 time you have to spend learning the basic logic 00:56:02.969 --> 00:56:04.849 of how these weapons work. They're all bound 00:56:04.849 --> 00:56:09.210 by you know Scientific constraints so all of 00:56:09.210 --> 00:56:11.150 them kind of do some of the same things to achieve 00:56:11.150 --> 00:56:14.590 desired weapons effects To maximize like range 00:56:14.590 --> 00:56:17.920 versus what they can carry So there was kind 00:56:17.920 --> 00:56:19.840 of a weird logic you can kind of learn and you 00:56:19.840 --> 00:56:22.840 can just kind of get used to what certain types 00:56:22.840 --> 00:56:27.800 of components look like. Jake has said in the 00:56:27.800 --> 00:56:29.980 chat, when looking at Russian munitions in Ukraine, 00:56:30.019 --> 00:56:32.280 it was very useful personally to collect and 00:56:32.280 --> 00:56:34.559 follow every source where images of munitions 00:56:34.559 --> 00:56:36.780 were showing up, such as Ukrainian emergency 00:56:36.780 --> 00:56:39.840 service pages for each oblast or even the police 00:56:39.840 --> 00:56:42.340 prosecutor's offices for the oblast. They tended 00:56:42.340 --> 00:56:44.260 to show ammunition remnants to show damage from 00:56:44.260 --> 00:56:46.539 attacks on civilians infrastructure and whatnot. 00:56:46.800 --> 00:56:48.840 And that was useful for finding more imagery 00:56:48.840 --> 00:56:53.039 to compare slash analyze. Just to finish, Trevor, 00:56:53.159 --> 00:56:56.619 as we're coming to time, what's been your kind 00:56:56.619 --> 00:56:59.699 of proudest moment as an analyst? What kind of 00:56:59.699 --> 00:57:02.699 detail did you spot that others didn't, that 00:57:02.699 --> 00:57:05.280 led to an identification or something surprising 00:57:05.280 --> 00:57:09.579 that you found? Honestly, I'd say probably one 00:57:09.579 --> 00:57:12.519 of my proudest would be Al Maghazi. There was 00:57:12.519 --> 00:57:16.300 a strike in April, 2024 that hit on a street 00:57:16.300 --> 00:57:18.380 where a bunch of children were playing foosball, 00:57:18.719 --> 00:57:22.760 and killed a bunch of children and two men. And 00:57:22.760 --> 00:57:26.079 Israel denied operating in the area, or carrying 00:57:26.079 --> 00:57:28.320 out a strike in the area, and there were some 00:57:28.320 --> 00:57:31.219 remnants. And I didn't have good reference imagery 00:57:31.219 --> 00:57:34.980 of the remnants at the time, so I went to geoconfirmed 00:57:34.980 --> 00:57:37.139 and I looked through every single airstrike that 00:57:37.139 --> 00:57:40.500 they had geolocated, and I marked out the ones 00:57:40.500 --> 00:57:43.360 that were too big of an explosion for the munition 00:57:43.360 --> 00:57:46.550 that was used. And the ones that fit, I spent 00:57:46.550 --> 00:57:48.349 more time digging into each of those strikes 00:57:48.349 --> 00:57:51.309 to try to find remnants. And I was able to basically 00:57:51.309 --> 00:57:54.510 match components from those strikes to Mikulet. 00:57:54.670 --> 00:57:56.769 And those components matched the one at Almagazi. 00:57:56.889 --> 00:57:59.489 So I basically was able to determine, hey, this 00:57:59.489 --> 00:58:01.849 matched an Israeli Mikulet, even after saying 00:58:01.849 --> 00:58:03.909 that they didn't carry out a strike in that area. 00:58:05.369 --> 00:58:07.630 And it was really time consuming because it was 00:58:07.630 --> 00:58:09.289 earlier into the conflict and I hadn't spent 00:58:09.289 --> 00:58:11.780 a lot of time. learning about that munition or 00:58:11.780 --> 00:58:13.659 like saving a bunch of reference images didn't 00:58:13.659 --> 00:58:16.559 have as much, but I think that was probably the 00:58:16.559 --> 00:58:19.739 practice for me. Wow. Yeah. Important work. If 00:58:19.739 --> 00:58:21.800 you have a link to that, please pop it in the 00:58:21.800 --> 00:58:26.260 chat. And thank you so, so much for going, going 00:58:26.260 --> 00:58:29.300 into detail about your process and also how other 00:58:29.300 --> 00:58:31.159 and the resources that you use and how other 00:58:31.159 --> 00:58:34.380 people can make use of them too. Really, really 00:58:34.380 --> 00:58:38.199 useful talk, especially at the moment as everyone's 00:58:38.199 --> 00:58:41.539 got their eyes on the conflict. in the Middle 00:58:41.539 --> 00:58:44.860 East. And yeah, we'll be back in two weeks time 00:58:44.860 --> 00:58:47.579 with another Stage Talk. But for now, thank you 00:58:47.579 --> 00:58:50.820 very much, Trevor. I can't wait to see what you 00:58:50.820 --> 00:58:53.340 put out next. And thank you everybody for listening. 00:58:55.280 --> 00:58:57.300 Yeah, thanks everyone for showing up. Have a 00:58:57.300 --> 00:59:00.139 good one. Thank you for listening to the Stage 00:59:00.139 --> 00:59:03.860 Talk. 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