1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:24,960 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:53,960 or Election Analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:53,960 --> 00:01:00,000 Today we're going to be looking at the Republican held toss-up seats. 4 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,480 As you may know, the Republicans currently hold the majority of the House of Representatives, 5 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:09,440 a slim one at Bleat, and the Democrats are trying to get their majority back from a couple 6 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,000 years back, but the Republicans want to hang on to every seat they can. 7 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,720 And there are almost just as many toss-up races that are currently held in Republican 8 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:18,720 seats. 9 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:23,440 There are 14 that we'll be talking about today compared to 12 from last week. 10 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:27,360 So we're going to do just like we did last week, just go through the 14 important ones, 11 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,400 the names and who's running, and that ought to be informative to any of y'all who live 12 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,160 in any of those districts. 13 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,120 So let's not waste any time, let's get right on it. 14 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,960 First we head to the Grand Canyon State, the state of Arizona. 15 00:01:40,960 --> 00:01:43,560 We'll be talking about two congressional districts. 16 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:48,080 First we're talking about the first congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 17 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:53,280 David Schweighart is facing off against former state representative Amish Shah. 18 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:59,040 Then in the sixth congressional district, incumbent Representative Juan Siscomani faces 19 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:03,760 a challenge from Democrat Kirsten Engel, a former state senator. 20 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,760 And we stay on the west coast for our next trek as we head to the Golden State, the state 21 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:08,760 of California. 22 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,880 Now a lot of people don't think of Republican-held House seats when they think of California, 23 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:14,080 but there are a few of them. 24 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:19,560 And in fact, a lot of them are being looked at as hotly contested because in California 25 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:26,520 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index for Republican-held House seats, not one, not two, not three, 26 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:31,720 not four, but five of them are considered to be toss-ups. 27 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,200 So let's take a look at them real quick. 28 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,880 First we head to the 13th congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 29 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:43,720 John Duarte is facing former state assemblyman Democrat Adam Gray. 30 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:48,720 Next we head to the 22nd congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 31 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:54,480 David Valadeo is facing off against Democrat former state assemblyman Rudy Salas. 32 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:59,680 Next to the 27th district where incumbent Republican Representative Mike Garcia is facing 33 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:04,560 off against former NASA chief of staff, Democrat George Whitesides. 34 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:10,120 Then we head to the 41st district where incumbent Republican Representative Ken Calvert is facing 35 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,040 off against Democrat former federal prosecutor Will Rollins. 36 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:21,600 And finally we head to California's 45th congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 37 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:26,520 Michelle Steele is facing off against Democrat attorney Derek Tran. 38 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:27,960 And there is a note on this. 39 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:34,440 According to 538.com, which is a website we often use for polling, they just launched 40 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:39,640 a forecast of the House elections and they proclaimed this race, the 45th district race 41 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:45,240 in California to be the closest House election this cycle. 42 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,720 So you're going to want to watch all these on election night, but keep an eye on this 43 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,660 one the most. 44 00:03:50,660 --> 00:03:55,080 Because whoever wins this one will likely win the House. 45 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:59,080 So keep an eye on the 45th district race in California. 46 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:04,160 And now we head over to the Hawkeyes state, the state of Iowa. 47 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:08,360 Two elections in Iowa we'll be talking about and both of them were actually added to the 48 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,400 PVIS toss ups in just the last couple of weeks. 49 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:16,400 So we start in Iowa's first congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 50 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:22,520 Marionette Miller Meeks is facing off against Democrat former state representative Christina 51 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:23,640 Bohannon. 52 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:28,320 And then we head to Iowa's third congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 53 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:34,800 Zach Nunn is facing off against Democrat former USDA deputy undersecretary Lannon Backham. 54 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,680 And now we head to the Cornhusker state, the state of Nebraska. 55 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,720 A couple weeks back we talked about how the Senate race in Nebraska is getting a lot of 56 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:47,400 people looking at it right now being closer than it is and that may influence this race 57 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:53,160 here in Nebraska's swingiest congressional district, their second congressional district 58 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:58,480 where incumbent Republican Representative Don Bacon is facing off against state Senator 59 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,260 Tony Vargas. 60 00:05:00,260 --> 00:05:03,800 And from there we head to the Empire State, the state of New York. 61 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:09,280 Now very similar to California, New York being a pretty blue state, a lot of the red seats 62 00:05:09,280 --> 00:05:11,240 seem to be up for grabs. 63 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,600 In fact we'll be talking about three of them. 64 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:19,560 First we head to New York's fourth congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 65 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:25,200 Anthony De Espozito is facing off against Democrat former Hempstead town supervisor 66 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:26,480 Laura Gillen. 67 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:31,960 Then we head down to the 17th congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 68 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:36,000 Mike Lawler is facing off against former Congressman Mondaire Jones. 69 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:40,960 And then we head not that far away to New York's 19th congressional district where incumbent 70 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:45,640 Republican Representative Mark Molinaro is facing off against Democrat attorney Josh 71 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:46,640 Reilly. 72 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:51,640 And last but not least we head to the Beaver state, the state of Oregon. 73 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:56,120 Specifically Oregon's fifth congressional district where incumbent Republican Representative 74 00:05:56,120 --> 00:06:02,400 Lori Chavez DeRemer is facing off against Democrat state representative Janelle Bynum. 75 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:06,680 You may remember we talked about the Democratic primary a few weeks back during Oregon's primary 76 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:07,680 election. 77 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:13,760 So those are the 14 Republican held seats to watch on election night that bring us to 78 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:18,060 a total of 26 House toss ups altogether. 79 00:06:18,060 --> 00:06:24,840 And with the House majority so slim at the moment, these 26 elections will truly decide 80 00:06:24,840 --> 00:06:31,440 who holds the House of Representatives on January 3rd, 2025 and it may predict who will 81 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:35,320 win the White House on January 20th, just a couple weeks after. 82 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,920 Now there hasn't been any major updates on Cook's PVI as of yet. 83 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:45,760 However, we are going to do one last show before the election in the coming weeks. 84 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,920 And if there are any updates, I will be sure to share them with you all. 85 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:55,680 It is just a reminder that many states have started early voting so if you have got your 86 00:06:55,680 --> 00:07:00,860 ballot and you know exactly who you're voting for, I suggest filling it out and putting 87 00:07:00,860 --> 00:07:01,860 it in the box. 88 00:07:01,860 --> 00:07:05,760 Might as well get it right out of the way and have the satisfaction of voting. 89 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:10,780 And as always, if you are willing to learn more about elections in your area, especially 90 00:07:10,780 --> 00:07:16,260 as we gear toward election day, be sure to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 91 00:07:16,260 --> 00:07:22,280 And if you are willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com and realclearpolling.com. 92 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,880 That'll do it for this edition and I always say, if you are a registered voter in any 93 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:32,120 of the states that we mentioned here, or any state for that matter, I don't care who you 94 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,180 vote for, but I do care that you vote. 95 00:07:35,180 --> 00:07:37,000 So please do. 96 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,460 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 97 00:07:39,460 --> 00:07:44,320 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 98 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:49,120 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting forum you like. 99 00:07:49,120 --> 00:08:16,000 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 100 00:08:20,120 --> 00:09:45,760 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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