1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:24,320 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection, 2 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,480 your election analysis for across the circus. 3 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,760 I hope you all are doing well today, wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:36,480 Alright, now onto the next part of our overdrive toward Tuesday, November 5th. 5 00:00:36,480 --> 00:00:41,240 On our last show we talked about the gubernatorial races, specifically the ones that are competitive, 6 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,800 but today a lot more races are competitive, well partly because there's more seats involved. 7 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:51,200 Yes, today we will be discussing the fight for the upper chamber of the United States 8 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:52,200 Congress. 9 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,960 We're talking about elections for the Senate. 10 00:00:54,960 --> 00:01:00,640 Now the Democrats have held the majority of the Senate since 2021 and they want to keep 11 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:05,760 it that way, but the Republicans are fighting to get the chamber back in their hands and 12 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:10,580 with how slim the majority is, they're really going all out. 13 00:01:10,580 --> 00:01:16,120 The Republican party really only needs two seats to win the majority of the chamber, 14 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:21,400 or they can win one seat and if Donald Trump and JD Vance win the presidency, they will 15 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:26,680 have the majority of a 50-50 tie because the vice president would be the president of the 16 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,400 Senate breaking any tie breaking vote. 17 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:33,960 And this year's Senate election cycle is rather interesting, a lot of close races. 18 00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:41,720 In fact, of the 34 elections in the US Senate this year, about 11 of them are deemed somewhat 19 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,760 competitive, some more competitive than others. 20 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:50,360 Only a couple of those are truly toss up races, but we'll get to those in a moment. 21 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:55,360 First we'll talk about the ones that can get competitive in the next few weeks. 22 00:01:55,360 --> 00:02:01,480 Now we'll talk about the likely Democratic and likely Republican seats according to the 23 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,880 Cook Partisan Voting Index. 24 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:05,200 We'll talk about those first. 25 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:10,800 Now according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, a likely rating means, quote, these 26 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:15,600 races are not considered competitive at this point, but they have the potential to become 27 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:16,800 engaged. 28 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,200 And we have a couple of those right away. 29 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:23,240 Now I want to start first by saying that the Democrats kind of have the tougher path to 30 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:28,960 victory as they have more seats with Democrat incumbents than Republicans. 31 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,980 However many of them are solid and are set not to really change hands, but that does 32 00:02:32,980 --> 00:02:38,840 mean a handful of them could potentially flip, which could give the GOP the majority. 33 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:43,640 First in terms of a likely Democratic seat would be the seat in Maryland, an open seat 34 00:02:43,640 --> 00:02:47,080 as Senator Ben Cardin is not running for reelection. 35 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,880 Secondly the Democratic candidate, Prince George's County Executive Angela Also Brooks, 36 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,720 currently has a good edge over former Governor Larry Hogan. 37 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:00,560 And next in likely Republican there are two Republican held seats on that block involving 38 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,720 the state of Florida where incumbent Senator Rick Scott is facing a challenge from former 39 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,920 Congresswoman Debbie Mercarsol Powell. 40 00:03:07,920 --> 00:03:14,160 And also on likely Republican was a seat that wasn't on this rating a couple weeks ago, 41 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:19,080 but has changed drastically in the last couple weeks and that's in Nebraska where incumbent 42 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:25,120 Deb Fisher, Republican Senator, is facing a challenge from independent candidate, industrial 43 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,780 mechanic and local union president Dan Osborne. 44 00:03:28,780 --> 00:03:33,200 Now this wasn't deemed to be really competitive at one time, however Dan Osborne has actually 45 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,680 led Fisher in a couple of polls in the last couple weeks, which has surprised a lot of 46 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,960 pundits and has made this race kind of closer than we think. 47 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,400 So I don't know if the ratings will switch on that pretty soon, but we'll have to wait 48 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:45,720 and see. 49 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:51,800 Next we go on to the Cook PVI seats that are under the lean category, as in lean Democratic 50 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:52,800 or lean Republican. 51 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:58,420 And according to the Cook PVI those, quote, are races that are considered competitive, 52 00:03:58,420 --> 00:04:01,220 but one party has an advantage. 53 00:04:01,220 --> 00:04:05,760 So first on the Democratic side there are actually four lean Democratic seats, those 54 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:10,800 being the states of Arizona where incumbent Senator Kirsten Sinema, former Democratic 55 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:16,400 now independent, is not running for re-election and Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego is 56 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:20,420 facing former news anchor and MAGA activist Kari Lake. 57 00:04:20,420 --> 00:04:26,080 Then Nevada, incumbent Democratic Senator Jackie Rosen is facing businessman Sam Brown. 58 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:31,760 And then Pennsylvania, where incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. is facing hedge fund 59 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,880 CEO Dave McCormick. 60 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:39,080 And Wisconsin, where incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin is facing venture capitalist Eric 61 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:40,080 Hoft. 62 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,960 And notice that these are all swing states, so depending on how the presidency goes in 63 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:47,160 those states could be how the Senate race goes as well. 64 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:52,760 Then on lean Republican there are two races and one of them is bad news for the Democrats 65 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,280 because one of them is in a Democratic held seat. 66 00:04:55,280 --> 00:04:59,840 And that's in the state of Montana, where incumbent Senator John Tester is facing off 67 00:04:59,840 --> 00:05:03,040 against aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy. 68 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,360 And Tim Sheehy has done rather well in polls lately, thus making this the Republicans' 69 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:12,040 best chance to flip an incumbent seat this cycle. 70 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:17,040 Also on the lean Republican side is the Senate race in the state of Texas, where incumbent 71 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:22,620 Senator Ted Cruz, Republican, is facing off against Democratic Congressman Colin Allred. 72 00:05:22,620 --> 00:05:27,080 This actually was just added to the lean ratings not that long ago, about a week ago. 73 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:31,200 It seems that Democrats are really focusing on Texas, so much so that Colin Allred has 74 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,400 actually been doing much better in the polls as of late. 75 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:41,280 So those are the likely and the lean elections, but we get to now the toss-up elections. 76 00:05:41,280 --> 00:05:46,040 And according to the PVI, quote, these races are the most competitive and either party 77 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,820 has a good chance of winning. 78 00:05:48,820 --> 00:05:54,060 And again, it's not good news for the Democrats as both of them are Democratic seats. 79 00:05:54,060 --> 00:05:59,360 And with two of them being there, that's really all the Republicans need to take the chamber 80 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:00,400 back. 81 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,760 So let's take a look at those two races, shall we? 82 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,200 First, we head to the Great Lakes State, the state of Michigan. 83 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,920 Now, the current senator for this election cycle in the state of Michigan is incumbent 84 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,400 Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. 85 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:18,080 She is retiring this year after a long tenure in the Senate, leaving the seat open for the 86 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:19,200 first time in a while. 87 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,120 And it was very close primary contest for this race. 88 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:27,320 However, it has whittled down to two candidates, or two major candidates, I should say. 89 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:33,280 Those being for the Democrats, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, and for the Republicans, former 90 00:06:33,280 --> 00:06:35,160 Congressman Mike Rogers. 91 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:40,320 Now, there have been some recent polls, a couple with Rogers winning, but a few of them 92 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,840 do have Slotkin winning for the most part. 93 00:06:42,840 --> 00:06:48,520 In fact, the two most recent polls we have here, one from Mitchell Research and Communications, 94 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:53,200 sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service, has Slotkin leading by five 95 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:54,200 points. 96 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:59,320 And another poll from RMG Research, sponsored by the Napolitano Institute, has Slotkin leading 97 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:00,720 by six points. 98 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:06,080 Although there has been a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which is a pollster for the Republican 99 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:11,240 Party, that shows the Senate race even, with both candidates tied at 47%. 100 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:16,160 However, some say that being a Republican pollster may have had something to do with 101 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:17,160 that. 102 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:21,800 But besides that, the average seems to be, according to RealClearPolling, Slotkin has 103 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,600 about a three-point itch. 104 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:27,460 But again, Michigan is a swing state this year, so depending on how the state votes 105 00:07:27,460 --> 00:07:30,400 for president, it could vote for Senate that way as well. 106 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:35,920 Meanwhile, the next state is set to really go for Trump, as it has a bit of a red hue. 107 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,840 However, the Senate race is more competitive. 108 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,480 With that, we head to the Buckeyes state, the state of Ohio. 109 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,520 This seat was on the Republicans' hit list for a while. 110 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,840 In fact, we talked about it when the primary occurred. 111 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:52,320 And the current senator for Ohio is Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. 112 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:57,400 Now, Brown faced no opposition in the primary, as the Democrats were all really behind him, 113 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,800 the Democrats of Ohio, to keep this seat in Democratic hands. 114 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:05,680 Meanwhile, the Republican primary was won by businessman Bernie Moreno. 115 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:11,520 And it seems as though from all real nonpartisan pollsters that this race really could go either 116 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:12,880 way at this point. 117 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:16,760 Recent polls show both candidates winning, depending on the circumstance. 118 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:21,800 For example, a poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed Brown winning by 119 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:22,800 four points. 120 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:28,320 Meanwhile, a poll around the same time from Activote showed Moreno leading by two points. 121 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,840 And on real clear polling, if you bring the averages together, Brown seems to be winning 122 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,400 by about three and a half percent. 123 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:39,420 In fact, it's a little better than Alyssa Slotkin's current average against Mike Rogers 124 00:08:39,420 --> 00:08:40,420 in Michigan. 125 00:08:40,420 --> 00:08:43,520 So Brown has a little bit of an edge in a sense. 126 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:50,020 However, based on how the state is and how it votes for president and other major races, 127 00:08:50,020 --> 00:08:52,120 this does show to be a real toss up. 128 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:56,800 And it all depends on the final poll, the one that matters, on election day. 129 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,160 So there's a lot of Senate races to watch that night. 130 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,440 Of course, some will be closer than others. 131 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:06,840 It really will be an all out battle to see which party holds the upper chamber. 132 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:08,840 Only the strong will survive. 133 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:13,260 And as always, if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area, especially 134 00:09:13,260 --> 00:09:18,860 the important ones coming up, be sure to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 135 00:09:18,860 --> 00:09:25,920 And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com as well as realclearpolling.com. 136 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:30,440 So be sure to join us on our next show where we'll be the first part of a two part series 137 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:35,940 where we'll be discussing the toss up US House races and how the battle for that will be 138 00:09:35,940 --> 00:09:39,000 just as exciting as the battle for the Senate. 139 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:44,420 And as always, I say, if you are a registered voter, especially in Michigan or Ohio or any 140 00:09:44,420 --> 00:09:51,240 other state that will be electing a senator this year, I don't care who you vote for, 141 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:52,880 but I do care that you vote. 142 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,000 So please do. 143 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,200 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 144 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,840 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com 145 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:04,020 slash across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 146 00:10:04,020 --> 00:10:29,720 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 147 00:10:35,020 --> 00:11:59,500 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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