Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection,
or Election Analysis for Across the Circus.
Primary election season is over.
We went through the whole calendar from March to September talking about battleground races
all throughout the way, but here we are in the home stretch.
It's only a matter of time before Tuesday, November 5th comes along.
We're going to elect a new president and we're going to elect some senators, some House representatives
and some governors as well.
So for the next few weeks, we're going to be talking exclusively about toss-up races
throughout the country.
We'll start this week when we talk about the gubernatorial elections.
Now there's not a lot of gubernatorial elections this year.
Only 11 states elect their governor in presidential years.
And the large majority of those races are really over before they even start, where
according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, a lot of those are in solid Republican or
solid Democratic states, meaning that particular party candidate will have an insurmountable
edge come November.
But that's not to say there are some races that are competitive.
For example, two of those states are considered in likely Democratic hands.
And according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, when a race is in the likely zone,
it says, quote, these races are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential
to become engaged.
Okay.
So it means a lot can happen between now and election day.
Two of those states are in that zone, those being Washington state, where Attorney General
Bob Ferguson, the Democratic candidate, has been doing very well in polling against former
Congressman Dave Reichert, the Republican nominee.
And then there's also North Carolina, which a lot of people thought would be a toss-up
race, come this time.
And even, I remember back in March when we discussed the primary for this race, we talked
about how it's set to be a very close one.
However, in the last few months, there's been a lot of scandal plaguing the Republican
candidate, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, and polling for the Democratic candidate,
State Attorney General Josh Stein, has been doing very well in his favor, thus making
this race go from toss-up all the way to likely Democratic.
So Josh Stein does have a good edge, but a lot can happen between now and election day.
So as of this taping, there's only one major toss-up gubernatorial race.
And for that, we head to the granite state, the state of New Hampshire.
The governor of New Hampshire, in case you didn't know, serves a two-year term, meaning
every two years they're up for reelection.
New Hampshire and Vermont are the only two states to do that.
The current governor of New Hampshire is Republican Governor Chris Sununu.
He was first elected back in 2016, and there was a rumor going around saying that he was
going to run for the Republican nomination for president, however he did not, and he
decided to retire at the end of his term, thus making the seat open.
And New Hampshire has a reputation of being very swingy, so this race is set to be pretty
close.
And the primary just occurred not that long ago, back on September 10th, so it's real
overdrive heading into the election.
So the two major candidates are, on the Republican side, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, and
on the Democratic side, former mayor of Manchester, Joyce Craig.
Now as you can tell, both candidates do have some name recognition throughout the state,
Kelly Ayotte being a former senator for the state, serving a full six-year term, and Joyce
Craig being the former mayor of New Hampshire's largest city.
And the Kelly Ayotte campaign has contributed a lot more money than the Joyce Craig campaign,
partly because the Republicans really want to hang on to this seat.
However polling shows were set to be in a very close race.
Now there's only been two polls made since the primaries have finished.
The first poll from pollster St. Elmsom College showed Ayotte leading Craig by three points.
However, just a couple days later, a poll from the University of New Hampshire showed
Craig leading Ayotte by one point.
And both of these polls are well within the margins of error, so that means we are looking
at a very close gubernatorial race.
So I wish there was more competitiveness in the state governor's races, but you know,
some years are like that, some years aren't.
But at least we got one to look out for, so the election in New Hampshire is going to
be one to really watch, along with the presidential race and all the other races going on.
Now we will have a show right before the election on November 5th in case of any last minute
changes, in case any races go to competitive territory or what.
So if something were to change in this race, we will discuss it, but we'll discuss that
at a later time.
So that's all for this edition, and as always, if you are willing to learn more about elections
in your area, be sure to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com.
And if you are willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com.
So join us next week where we will discuss the competitive Senate races, and we'll see
how well the Democrats have at keeping their slim majority, or if the Republicans are ready
to overtake it.
You'll just have to wait and see for next week.
And I know it's a bit early, but you know, it never hurts to say, if you are a registered
voter in the state of New Hampshire, or in North Carolina, or Washington state, or any
state that has a gubernatorial election on November 5th, I don't care who you vote for,
but I do care that you vote.
So please do.
Thank you for listening to Dress Girls Election Dissection.
If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash
across the circus, and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like.
Thank you all for listening, and I will see you all very soon.
This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!