1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:25,760 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:32,640 or Election Analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,720 Primary election season is over. 4 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:39,700 We went through the whole calendar from March to September talking about battleground races 5 00:00:39,700 --> 00:00:43,680 all throughout the way, but here we are in the home stretch. 6 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:49,120 It's only a matter of time before Tuesday, November 5th comes along. 7 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:54,560 We're going to elect a new president and we're going to elect some senators, some House representatives 8 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,420 and some governors as well. 9 00:00:56,420 --> 00:01:00,620 So for the next few weeks, we're going to be talking exclusively about toss-up races 10 00:01:00,620 --> 00:01:01,620 throughout the country. 11 00:01:01,620 --> 00:01:06,220 We'll start this week when we talk about the gubernatorial elections. 12 00:01:06,220 --> 00:01:10,740 Now there's not a lot of gubernatorial elections this year. 13 00:01:10,740 --> 00:01:15,160 Only 11 states elect their governor in presidential years. 14 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:20,320 And the large majority of those races are really over before they even start, where 15 00:01:20,320 --> 00:01:25,440 according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, a lot of those are in solid Republican or 16 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:32,020 solid Democratic states, meaning that particular party candidate will have an insurmountable 17 00:01:32,020 --> 00:01:34,040 edge come November. 18 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,120 But that's not to say there are some races that are competitive. 19 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:42,320 For example, two of those states are considered in likely Democratic hands. 20 00:01:42,320 --> 00:01:46,940 And according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, when a race is in the likely zone, 21 00:01:46,940 --> 00:01:52,560 it says, quote, these races are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential 22 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:53,560 to become engaged. 23 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:54,560 Okay. 24 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,740 So it means a lot can happen between now and election day. 25 00:01:56,740 --> 00:02:01,420 Two of those states are in that zone, those being Washington state, where Attorney General 26 00:02:01,420 --> 00:02:07,680 Bob Ferguson, the Democratic candidate, has been doing very well in polling against former 27 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,440 Congressman Dave Reichert, the Republican nominee. 28 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:16,040 And then there's also North Carolina, which a lot of people thought would be a toss-up 29 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,600 race, come this time. 30 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,980 And even, I remember back in March when we discussed the primary for this race, we talked 31 00:02:22,980 --> 00:02:25,120 about how it's set to be a very close one. 32 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:29,840 However, in the last few months, there's been a lot of scandal plaguing the Republican 33 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:34,840 candidate, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, and polling for the Democratic candidate, 34 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:40,040 State Attorney General Josh Stein, has been doing very well in his favor, thus making 35 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,760 this race go from toss-up all the way to likely Democratic. 36 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:48,000 So Josh Stein does have a good edge, but a lot can happen between now and election day. 37 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:54,360 So as of this taping, there's only one major toss-up gubernatorial race. 38 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:59,760 And for that, we head to the granite state, the state of New Hampshire. 39 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:04,800 The governor of New Hampshire, in case you didn't know, serves a two-year term, meaning 40 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,680 every two years they're up for reelection. 41 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,320 New Hampshire and Vermont are the only two states to do that. 42 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:15,720 The current governor of New Hampshire is Republican Governor Chris Sununu. 43 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:20,680 He was first elected back in 2016, and there was a rumor going around saying that he was 44 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,520 going to run for the Republican nomination for president, however he did not, and he 45 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,320 decided to retire at the end of his term, thus making the seat open. 46 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:33,480 And New Hampshire has a reputation of being very swingy, so this race is set to be pretty 47 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:34,480 close. 48 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:38,980 And the primary just occurred not that long ago, back on September 10th, so it's real 49 00:03:38,980 --> 00:03:41,200 overdrive heading into the election. 50 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:47,840 So the two major candidates are, on the Republican side, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, and 51 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:52,560 on the Democratic side, former mayor of Manchester, Joyce Craig. 52 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:56,680 Now as you can tell, both candidates do have some name recognition throughout the state, 53 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:01,800 Kelly Ayotte being a former senator for the state, serving a full six-year term, and Joyce 54 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,260 Craig being the former mayor of New Hampshire's largest city. 55 00:04:05,260 --> 00:04:10,520 And the Kelly Ayotte campaign has contributed a lot more money than the Joyce Craig campaign, 56 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,840 partly because the Republicans really want to hang on to this seat. 57 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,480 However polling shows were set to be in a very close race. 58 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:22,240 Now there's only been two polls made since the primaries have finished. 59 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:29,200 The first poll from pollster St. Elmsom College showed Ayotte leading Craig by three points. 60 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:33,520 However, just a couple days later, a poll from the University of New Hampshire showed 61 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,640 Craig leading Ayotte by one point. 62 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:41,520 And both of these polls are well within the margins of error, so that means we are looking 63 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,080 at a very close gubernatorial race. 64 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,360 So I wish there was more competitiveness in the state governor's races, but you know, 65 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:50,880 some years are like that, some years aren't. 66 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,640 But at least we got one to look out for, so the election in New Hampshire is going to 67 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:59,840 be one to really watch, along with the presidential race and all the other races going on. 68 00:04:59,840 --> 00:05:05,600 Now we will have a show right before the election on November 5th in case of any last minute 69 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:10,180 changes, in case any races go to competitive territory or what. 70 00:05:10,180 --> 00:05:14,480 So if something were to change in this race, we will discuss it, but we'll discuss that 71 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:15,480 at a later time. 72 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,960 So that's all for this edition, and as always, if you are willing to learn more about elections 73 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:25,600 in your area, be sure to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 74 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:30,360 And if you are willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com. 75 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:36,480 So join us next week where we will discuss the competitive Senate races, and we'll see 76 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:42,840 how well the Democrats have at keeping their slim majority, or if the Republicans are ready 77 00:05:42,840 --> 00:05:43,840 to overtake it. 78 00:05:43,840 --> 00:05:47,440 You'll just have to wait and see for next week. 79 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,800 And I know it's a bit early, but you know, it never hurts to say, if you are a registered 80 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,980 voter in the state of New Hampshire, or in North Carolina, or Washington state, or any 81 00:05:55,980 --> 00:06:01,580 state that has a gubernatorial election on November 5th, I don't care who you vote for, 82 00:06:01,580 --> 00:06:03,500 but I do care that you vote. 83 00:06:03,500 --> 00:06:04,500 So please do. 84 00:06:04,500 --> 00:06:06,640 Thank you for listening to Dress Girls Election Dissection. 85 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:11,200 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 86 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:16,440 across the circus, and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 87 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:41,120 Thank you all for listening, and I will see you all very soon. 88 00:06:47,280 -->00:08:11,520 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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