1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,000 your election analysis for across the circus. 3 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,960 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:34,120 So we were off the last couple of weeks because there weren't any major battleground elections 5 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:35,120 going on. 6 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:40,760 I do want to apologize though to our friends in Massachusetts, whom I kinda skipped over 7 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:41,960 on the last program. 8 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:46,720 I should have mentioned that primary elections were on Tuesday, September 3rd, but unfortunately 9 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:51,000 there wasn't much to talk about as all the incumbents in the house were running for re-election 10 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,960 with token opposition, if any opposition at all. 11 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,680 So I apologize for our friends in Massachusetts for not getting the word out about election 12 00:00:58,680 --> 00:00:59,680 day. 13 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:05,040 But moving forward, we are now in the final week of primary elections on the election 14 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:06,600 calendar for 2024. 15 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:07,600 Can you believe it? 16 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:12,040 We started all the way back in March and not every week, but every so often there'd be 17 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,360 ones to talk about and here we are on the last one. 18 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:21,160 So Tuesday, September 10th is primary election day for three US states, those states being 19 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:25,120 Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. 20 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,620 Now we're gonna be talking about two states today and we're talking about Democratic primaries 21 00:01:29,620 --> 00:01:30,620 only. 22 00:01:30,620 --> 00:01:35,080 So let's not waste any time and let's pack our bags and head over to the first state, 23 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:36,520 the state of Delaware. 24 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:42,840 Now it's a big year for Delaware politics, an open Senate seat as Senator Tom Carper 25 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:43,840 is retiring. 26 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:48,760 However, we won't talk about that because there's only one major Democratic candidate 27 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,160 and it's a safely Democratic seat, so there's Schuen. 28 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,200 We'll discuss that in a minute because that candidate is elevating from a seat that we'll 29 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:57,200 be talking about. 30 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,640 But first, we head to the governor's mansion, talk about the gubernatorial election in the 31 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:02,640 state of Delaware. 32 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:07,520 Now, the current governor of Delaware is Democratic governor John Carney. 33 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,240 He was first elected in 2012, re-elected in 2016. 34 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,280 He is term limited and therefore cannot run for governor. 35 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:18,160 However, his name will still be on the primary ballot in Delaware. 36 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:24,480 Yes, in fact, governor John Carney is running for mayor of the city of Wilmington. 37 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:30,280 Yes, it's not every day the current governor decides to run for a mayoral office, but hey, 38 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,160 you know, you have to see it at least once in your life, I'm assuming. 39 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,000 So the governor's seat is open. 40 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:40,280 There are three major Democratic candidates, those being Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall 41 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:46,760 Long, New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer, and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation 42 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:47,760 Colin O'Mara. 43 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:52,760 Now, this race seems to be very close for the top two candidates. 44 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:57,520 In the polls that have been made in the last month, some have shown big leads for either 45 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:02,600 candidates and some even, in fact, a poll from early July from Slingshot Strategies 46 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:07,200 sponsored by Citizens for a New Delaware PAC, which has endorsed the Meyer campaign, by 47 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:11,400 the way, showed Hall Long and Meyer tied at 27%. 48 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:17,480 However, earlier in August, the same PAC and the same pollster made a poll and it showed 49 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,080 Meyer leading by four points. 50 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:24,640 Not long before that, in mid-July, there was a poll sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant 51 00:03:24,640 --> 00:03:29,640 Governor's Association from Public Policy Polling that showed Hall Long leading Meyer 52 00:03:29,640 --> 00:03:32,560 by a much larger margin, by 12 points. 53 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,920 The governor's office in Delaware is safely Democratic, whoever wins this primary will 54 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,760 very likely win in November, so it's going to be one to watch. 55 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:44,000 And as we know, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. 56 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:49,840 So now we go to the US House election in Delaware for the congressional district. 57 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,920 Now Delaware has a relatively small population. 58 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,420 As a result, there's only one seat in the US House of Representatives, and it's their 59 00:03:57,420 --> 00:03:59,380 at-large congressional district. 60 00:03:59,380 --> 00:04:04,720 Now the current holder of this seat is Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester. 61 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:10,560 She was first elected in 2016 and she is running for the open Senate seat and she's the only 62 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,480 Democrat in the primary there, so she's all but certain to win the primary. 63 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,240 So with that, this seat is now open. 64 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:22,000 And judging with how Representative Rochester's campaign is going, whoever holds this seat 65 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:26,860 could hold it for a long time, maybe use it as a springboard for higher political office, 66 00:04:26,860 --> 00:04:27,860 we don't know. 67 00:04:27,860 --> 00:04:32,000 So there are three major candidates in this race, and they are professional golfer Earl 68 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:37,960 Cooper, state senator Sarah McBride, and accounts payable supervisor Elias Weir. 69 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,800 Now there hasn't been a recent poll for this race. 70 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,960 In fact, the last poll that was made was all the way in October, sponsored by the Citizens 71 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:49,040 for Judicial Fairness, and it showed McBride with a good 12-point lead. 72 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:53,760 Now it's not one to say if her lead has gone down or if it's gone up since then. 73 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,360 We don't have much of a view. 74 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,400 However, despite that, still keep an eye on this race. 75 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:04,320 And now from there, we leave Delaware and we head not that far away to DeGranite State, 76 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:05,600 the state of New Hampshire. 77 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:10,800 Now New Hampshire is set to have a very close gubernatorial election this year. 78 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:16,400 We will discuss that at a later time because the primaries here aren't exactly battleground. 79 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:22,800 But we are talking about the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's second congressional district. 80 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:27,620 Now the current representative for New Hampshire's second congressional district is Democratic 81 00:05:27,620 --> 00:05:29,660 Representative Annie Custer. 82 00:05:29,660 --> 00:05:33,080 She was first elected in 2012 and has served ever since. 83 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,880 She is retiring this year, choosing not to run for re-election. 84 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:41,120 And according to the Cook's Partisan Voting Index, Democrats are favored in this seat 85 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:42,520 by two points. 86 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,220 So the Democrat candidate will have an advantage, but not a big one. 87 00:05:46,220 --> 00:05:50,220 But still, it's still a battleground for this partisan primary. 88 00:05:50,220 --> 00:05:56,320 There are two major candidates, and they are former Biden White House aide Maggie Goodlander 89 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,260 and former state executive counselor Colin Van Oster. 90 00:06:00,260 --> 00:06:03,440 Now Goodlander seems to have been doing well in the polls. 91 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,760 The most recent poll was from mid-August. 92 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,680 And the pollster was the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 93 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,180 And Goodlander led Van Oster by six points. 94 00:06:12,180 --> 00:06:16,920 And in another poll, around the same time, from Public Policy Polling and sponsored by 95 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:21,760 the Principled Veterans Fund, which has endorsed Goodlander's campaign, Goodlander led by ten 96 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:22,760 points. 97 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:27,280 So Goodlander seems to be in a good position, but Van Oster's not that far behind. 98 00:06:27,280 --> 00:06:31,560 It's important who Democrats choose in this election, because they will have to do quite 99 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:32,760 a bit of campaigning. 100 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:34,800 It's not all but certain, like the seats in Delaware. 101 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,400 They're going to have to do some real campaigning if they want to keep this seat. 102 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:39,560 But they do have an itch. 103 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:45,920 So those are primaries to watch in Delaware and New Hampshire for Tuesday, September 10th. 104 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:50,800 This may be our last primary edition of the show, but in the weeks leading up to Election 105 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,640 Day, we will be talking about toss-up races throughout the country. 106 00:06:54,640 --> 00:07:00,400 We'll be talking about close Senate races, close Governor's races, close House races. 107 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,120 Okay, you're not going to want to miss that. 108 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,640 So we're going to go into real overdrive heading into Election Day. 109 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:10,160 And as always, if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure 110 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,240 to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 111 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,880 And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com. 112 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:19,920 So those elections are for September 10th. 113 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:24,680 And as always, I say if you are a registered voter in Delaware, New Hampshire, or Rhode 114 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,360 Island, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 115 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:29,360 So please do. 116 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,680 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Day section. 117 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:36,000 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 118 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,520 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 119 00:07:40,520 --> 00:08:06,520 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 120 00:08:11,520 --> 00:09:36,240 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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