1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,780 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:23,780 --> 00:00:26,360 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:28,920 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:33,040 Alright, for today's show we're going to be discussing primary elections that are set 5 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,600 to take place on Tuesday, August 20th. 6 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,880 Three states are holding their primaries that day. 7 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,320 Those states are Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming. 8 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:50,680 Now there actually isn't a whole lot going on in terms of real battleground action going 9 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,160 on in these three states. 10 00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:58,000 However, there are two GOP primaries in Florida that we're going to be discussing today and 11 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,560 they both have interesting significance. 12 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:06,480 Now both of them involve incumbent representatives and on paper it doesn't seem like the two 13 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:11,080 incumbents are in real danger of losing their jobs. 14 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,560 But for starters, of course, you really can never tell. 15 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:19,240 You know, primary elections go any which way very often. 16 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:24,880 And plus they kind of show how the political landscape of Florida is now that Donald Trump, 17 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:30,680 a Florida resident himself, is the de facto leader of the Republican Party today. 18 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,640 So with that, let's head to the Sunshine State, the state of Florida. 19 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,380 So we'll start in Florida's first congressional district. 20 00:01:38,380 --> 00:01:43,960 Now Florida's first district just so happens to be the most Republican district in the 21 00:01:43,960 --> 00:01:44,960 state of Florida. 22 00:01:44,960 --> 00:01:50,160 According to Cook's Partisan Voting Index, Republicans are favored by 19 points. 23 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,680 So whoever wins this primary will very likely win come November. 24 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:59,080 Now the current representative for Florida's first congressional district is Republican 25 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,520 Representative Matt Gaetz. 26 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:06,360 Now if you know anything about US politics, you may have heard of Matt Gaetz. 27 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:11,160 He's one of the more controversial members of the House of Representatives, member of 28 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,320 the Freedom Caucus, and very pro-Donald Trump. 29 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:19,000 Well if you remember back a few months back, you'll remember that Matt Gaetz was kind of 30 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:24,600 the mastermind behind kicking Kevin McCarthy out of the speakership, a first of its kind 31 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,440 event in US history. 32 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:31,680 Well here we are in primary election season and not really unexpected, Kevin McCarthy 33 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,280 wants revenge. 34 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:39,880 He is endorsing Matt Gaetz's opponent, who is retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmick. 35 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:45,120 Now McCarthy is actually recruiting a few primary challengers to go against the eight 36 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:49,520 Republicans in the House who helped finalize the vote against his speakership according 37 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:54,200 to an article in Politico, and this would be a grand slam if hit. 38 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,880 However, if you look at polls and fundraising, it might not happen the way McCarthy wants 39 00:02:58,880 --> 00:02:59,880 it to. 40 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:06,040 Well for starters, Matt Gaetz is out fundraising Aaron Dimmick by about a 16 to 1 margin. 41 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:11,480 And if you look at recent polls, the most recent being a poll from early July from Fabrizio 42 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:17,560 Lee and associates sponsored by the Gaetz campaign showed Gaetz leading by 47 points. 43 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,320 So it's a good chance Gaetz could very likely win this election. 44 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,640 However, it's important to keep an eye on how many people actually vote for Aaron Dimmick 45 00:03:25,640 --> 00:03:31,880 because that could be a real referendum on Matt Gaetz's stature in the Republican Party. 46 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:32,920 We'll just have to wait and see. 47 00:03:32,920 --> 00:03:37,120 So from there, we head to Florida's 16th congressional district. 48 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:42,800 Now this is also a safe Republican seat favored by the Republicans by only seven points compared 49 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:47,320 to 19 points, a bit smaller, but still a hefty margin for one party to have. 50 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:51,880 And a current representative for Florida's 16th congressional district is Republican 51 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:57,320 Representative Vern Buchanan, was first elected in 2006 and has been serving ever since. 52 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,720 Now every long time incumbent seems to get challengers every now and again, but there's 53 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,100 something about this one. 54 00:04:03,100 --> 00:04:07,400 Now for one thing, Vern Buchanan compared to Matt Gaetz is a bit more moderate and in 55 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:12,320 kind of a stark contrast from the first primary we talked about a far right incumbent dealing 56 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:17,120 with a challenger to his left, we have a moderate candidate dealing with a challenge from his 57 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,120 right. 58 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:22,360 Vern Buchanan's challenger in the primary is private school founder Eddie Speer. 59 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:28,240 And unlike Aaron Dimmick in the first race, Eddie Speer has a good cash fund to go along 60 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:29,240 with. 61 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:33,080 However, Vern Buchanan is running on his record, his tenure in Congress and his ability to 62 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,840 persuade voters with compromise. 63 00:04:35,840 --> 00:04:40,880 Eddie Speer running on the far right wants a more conservative house in Florida. 64 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:46,920 And the most recent poll for this race was back in April from pollster St. Pete Polls 65 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:53,080 sponsored by FloridaPolitics.com and it showed Buchanan leading Speer by 51 points, a bigger 66 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,560 margin than the Matt Gaetz election. 67 00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:01,180 So as I said at the beginning, both Matt Gaetz and Vern Buchanan seem to be pretty safe in 68 00:05:01,180 --> 00:05:02,180 their elections. 69 00:05:02,180 --> 00:05:07,320 However, you might want to watch how their opponents do, because it will show how far 70 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:11,320 to the right Florida is or if it's coming to the center, depending on which district 71 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:12,560 each one is. 72 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,800 And you never know, maybe one of them might poll in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and actually 73 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:21,720 win because as I always say, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. 74 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,800 And as always, if you are willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure 75 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,480 to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 76 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,680 And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com. 77 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:38,520 So those are two interesting primaries to watch on Tuesday, August the 20th. 78 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:43,040 And as always, I say if you are a registered voter in the state of Florida or in the states 79 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:47,720 of Alaska or Wyoming, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 80 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:48,720 So please do. 81 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,120 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 82 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:55,200 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 83 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:59,600 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting forum you like. 84 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:25,480 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 85 00:06:30,600 --> 00:07:55,240 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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