Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection,
your election analysis for Across the Circus.
I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are.
So today we are discussing primaries set to take place on August 13th.
Four US states will be hosting primary elections that day.
Those four states are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Now we won't be talking about elections in Connecticut and Vermont, however we will be
talking about some elections in Minnesota and Wisconsin, specifically four races altogether.
Two congressional races in Minnesota and two in Wisconsin.
One Democratic primary and one Republican primary for each state.
So with that, let's not waste any time.
Let's pack our bags and head to the land of 10,000 lakes, the state of Minnesota.
A state that has been getting a lot of publicity lately as its governor, Tim Walz, was selected
by Kamala Harris to be on the presidential ticket for the Democratic Party.
But today we're talking about down-ballot stuff.
And speaking of Democrats, we head to Minnesota's fifth congressional district to start our show
today.
Now Minnesota's district five is a completely urban district.
It includes the entire city of Minneapolis as well as the surrounding areas.
It is also the most Democratic seat in Minnesota's congressional delegation as the Democrats
are favored by 30 points.
Now the current representative for Minnesota's fifth congressional district is Democratic
Representative Ilhan Omar.
She was first elected back in 2018.
And very similar to primaries we talked about earlier this year, specifically Jamal Bowman
and just last week's primary of Cory Bush, pro-Israel groups are coming after Ilhan Omar
due to her anti-Israel stance.
So she does face a major challenger in the primary election.
She faces former Minneapolis city councilman Don Samuels.
However, unlike the primaries that involved Bowman and Bush, Omar has the advantage here.
She has a lead in fundraising and in polls, with the most recent poll from Polster Lake
Research Partners and sponsored by the Omar campaign having Omar leading by 27 points.
So even though Bowman and Bush both lost their respective primaries, it doesn't seem that
that might happen for Omar.
However, this is a common trend we've been seeing, so it's important to keep an eye on
this election to see exactly how Democratic voters are dealing with the Israel-Palestinian
conflict.
And also, this is a very heavily Democratic district.
Whoever wins this primary election with a 30 point advantage will have a really good
chance at winning in November.
And with that, we head down to Minnesota's 7th congressional district and discuss the
Republican primary for that office.
And we're taking a real 180 turn because we're going from the most Democratic district in
the state to the most Republican district.
Yes, the Republicans are favored in the 7th district by 19 points.
And the current representative for Minnesota's 7th congressional district is Republican Michelle
Fishbach.
She was first elected in 2020.
And despite the endorsement from Donald Trump at the party convention, the state Republican
party has not made an endorsement in this race.
That is likely due to Fishbach's challenger and businessman Steve Boyd.
Now, Boyd has promised to join the far right Freedom Caucus if he's elected to Congress.
It seems his campaign has split the Minnesota Republican establishment.
However, it doesn't seem to have affected the race as much as Fishbach is leading in
both fundraising and polling.
With the most recent poll from Polestar Signal sponsored by the Fishbach campaign has Fishbach
leading by a whopping 50 points.
Now this poll was from June, so maybe some time has passed.
But you know, it goes to show you that both of these races that despite the parties having
certain advantages in both of these seats, the party still find a way to try to battle
for the nomination.
It's a very interesting concept when you think about it.
So Fishbach is leading in polls.
But as we always say, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
So now we leave Minnesota and we head right next door to the Badger State, the state of
Wisconsin, a state that based on polls for the presidential election may truly affect
who will win the White House come November.
And one of these races could really determine which party wins the House.
We head to District 3 in Wisconsin.
This does happen to be one of the more swingier districts in the state.
Republicans are favored in District 3 by only four points.
So not a big advantage, but an advantage nonetheless.
Now the current representative for Wisconsin's third congressional district is Republican
Derek Van Orden.
He first won the election in 2022 after the incumbent Democratic representative Ron Kind
chose to retire from the House and the seat flipped.
And the Democrats seem to want this seat back.
And in a time where only so many House elections will truly determine who holds the House with
it being so narrow, they're really going balls to the wall here.
So we'll be talking about the Democratic primary for this district.
There are three major candidates for this primary.
Those three candidates are boutique owner Rebecca Cook, state representative Katrina
Shankland and mortgage loan officer Eric Wilson.
Now Cook seems to have the advantage in terms of fundraising for this primary election.
And despite that, we don't have any polls recently.
In fact, the most recent Democratic primary poll came all the way from October sponsored
by the Shankland campaign from Blueprint polling and it showed Cook leading Shankland by three
points.
Now of course that was a long time ago, almost a year ago.
So maybe the tide has shifted a bit.
However, there is an interesting detail here.
The most recent polls that come from this district are theoretical matches between Van
Orden and both Cook and Shankland.
The first was from February from Blueprint polling sponsored by the Shankland campaign.
Van Orden led Shankland by only two points and then in June, a poll from pollster GQR
sponsored by the Rebecca Cook campaign showed Van Orden leading Cook by four points.
So no matter who wins this primary election, it may be very close come to general and it
may turn this race into a toss up, although it's currently licensed as likely Republican
on most analysts radars.
And from there we head to the 8th congressional district in Wisconsin.
Now in this seat, the Republicans are favored by 10 points.
So the Republican candidate will have the best chance come November.
Now the seat, however, is vacant.
See Mike Gallagher, a Republican was the incumbent.
However, he resigned in April of 2024, leaving the seat open.
So not only is there the general election taking place here, it's also a coinciding
special election.
Yes, they chose to have the special election occur on the same day as the regularly scheduled
primary election and the special general election will be on the regularly scheduled general
election day, November 5th.
So if you live in Wisconsin's 8th congressional district, it's not a typo.
There are two separate elections for the same seat.
Don't get confused, fill them both out.
Because one will determine who has to seat until January and the other will be the full
term congressman.
There are a number of candidates.
There are three particular major candidates in the Republican primary.
Those three candidates are State Senator Andre Juck, former State Senate President Roger
Roth and former gas station convenience store chain owner Tony White.
It seems to be a good race between Roth and White in terms of fundraising.
And White also has former President Trump's endorsement.
But despite that, the only poll we have is from March from pollster Signal and it showed
a completely different candidate, Alex Brucewitz, leading the poll.
However, since Brucewitz doesn't seem to be on the ballot, I guess we can't really
use that poll as the main fortune teller.
So with that, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
And as always, if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure
to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com.
And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com.
So those are four very important elections set to take place in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
And I say to you, if you are a registered voter in Minnesota or Wisconsin or in the
states of Connecticut and Vermont, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that
you vote.
So please do.
Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection.
If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash
across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like.
Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon.
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