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Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection,

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your election analysis for Across the Circus.

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I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are.

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So today we are discussing primaries set to take place on August 13th.

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Four US states will be hosting primary elections that day.

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Those four states are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

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Now we won't be talking about elections in Connecticut and Vermont, however we will be

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talking about some elections in Minnesota and Wisconsin, specifically four races altogether.

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Two congressional races in Minnesota and two in Wisconsin.

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One Democratic primary and one Republican primary for each state.

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So with that, let's not waste any time.

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Let's pack our bags and head to the land of 10,000 lakes, the state of Minnesota.

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A state that has been getting a lot of publicity lately as its governor, Tim Walz, was selected

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by Kamala Harris to be on the presidential ticket for the Democratic Party.

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But today we're talking about down-ballot stuff.

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And speaking of Democrats, we head to Minnesota's fifth congressional district to start our show

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today.

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Now Minnesota's district five is a completely urban district.

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It includes the entire city of Minneapolis as well as the surrounding areas.

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It is also the most Democratic seat in Minnesota's congressional delegation as the Democrats

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are favored by 30 points.

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Now the current representative for Minnesota's fifth congressional district is Democratic

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Representative Ilhan Omar.

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She was first elected back in 2018.

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And very similar to primaries we talked about earlier this year, specifically Jamal Bowman

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and just last week's primary of Cory Bush, pro-Israel groups are coming after Ilhan Omar

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due to her anti-Israel stance.

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So she does face a major challenger in the primary election.

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She faces former Minneapolis city councilman Don Samuels.

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However, unlike the primaries that involved Bowman and Bush, Omar has the advantage here.

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She has a lead in fundraising and in polls, with the most recent poll from Polster Lake

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Research Partners and sponsored by the Omar campaign having Omar leading by 27 points.

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So even though Bowman and Bush both lost their respective primaries, it doesn't seem that

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that might happen for Omar.

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However, this is a common trend we've been seeing, so it's important to keep an eye on

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this election to see exactly how Democratic voters are dealing with the Israel-Palestinian

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conflict.

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And also, this is a very heavily Democratic district.

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Whoever wins this primary election with a 30 point advantage will have a really good

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chance at winning in November.

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And with that, we head down to Minnesota's 7th congressional district and discuss the

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Republican primary for that office.

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And we're taking a real 180 turn because we're going from the most Democratic district in

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the state to the most Republican district.

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Yes, the Republicans are favored in the 7th district by 19 points.

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And the current representative for Minnesota's 7th congressional district is Republican Michelle

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Fishbach.

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She was first elected in 2020.

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And despite the endorsement from Donald Trump at the party convention, the state Republican

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party has not made an endorsement in this race.

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That is likely due to Fishbach's challenger and businessman Steve Boyd.

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Now, Boyd has promised to join the far right Freedom Caucus if he's elected to Congress.

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It seems his campaign has split the Minnesota Republican establishment.

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However, it doesn't seem to have affected the race as much as Fishbach is leading in

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both fundraising and polling.

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With the most recent poll from Polestar Signal sponsored by the Fishbach campaign has Fishbach

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leading by a whopping 50 points.

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Now this poll was from June, so maybe some time has passed.

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But you know, it goes to show you that both of these races that despite the parties having

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certain advantages in both of these seats, the party still find a way to try to battle

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for the nomination.

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It's a very interesting concept when you think about it.

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So Fishbach is leading in polls.

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But as we always say, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.

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So now we leave Minnesota and we head right next door to the Badger State, the state of

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Wisconsin, a state that based on polls for the presidential election may truly affect

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who will win the White House come November.

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And one of these races could really determine which party wins the House.

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We head to District 3 in Wisconsin.

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This does happen to be one of the more swingier districts in the state.

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Republicans are favored in District 3 by only four points.

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So not a big advantage, but an advantage nonetheless.

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Now the current representative for Wisconsin's third congressional district is Republican

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Derek Van Orden.

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He first won the election in 2022 after the incumbent Democratic representative Ron Kind

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chose to retire from the House and the seat flipped.

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And the Democrats seem to want this seat back.

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And in a time where only so many House elections will truly determine who holds the House with

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it being so narrow, they're really going balls to the wall here.

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So we'll be talking about the Democratic primary for this district.

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There are three major candidates for this primary.

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Those three candidates are boutique owner Rebecca Cook, state representative Katrina

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Shankland and mortgage loan officer Eric Wilson.

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Now Cook seems to have the advantage in terms of fundraising for this primary election.

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And despite that, we don't have any polls recently.

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In fact, the most recent Democratic primary poll came all the way from October sponsored

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by the Shankland campaign from Blueprint polling and it showed Cook leading Shankland by three

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points.

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Now of course that was a long time ago, almost a year ago.

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So maybe the tide has shifted a bit.

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However, there is an interesting detail here.

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The most recent polls that come from this district are theoretical matches between Van

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Orden and both Cook and Shankland.

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The first was from February from Blueprint polling sponsored by the Shankland campaign.

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Van Orden led Shankland by only two points and then in June, a poll from pollster GQR

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sponsored by the Rebecca Cook campaign showed Van Orden leading Cook by four points.

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So no matter who wins this primary election, it may be very close come to general and it

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may turn this race into a toss up, although it's currently licensed as likely Republican

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on most analysts radars.

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And from there we head to the 8th congressional district in Wisconsin.

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Now in this seat, the Republicans are favored by 10 points.

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So the Republican candidate will have the best chance come November.

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Now the seat, however, is vacant.

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See Mike Gallagher, a Republican was the incumbent.

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However, he resigned in April of 2024, leaving the seat open.

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So not only is there the general election taking place here, it's also a coinciding

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special election.

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Yes, they chose to have the special election occur on the same day as the regularly scheduled

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primary election and the special general election will be on the regularly scheduled general

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election day, November 5th.

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So if you live in Wisconsin's 8th congressional district, it's not a typo.

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There are two separate elections for the same seat.

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Don't get confused, fill them both out.

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Because one will determine who has to seat until January and the other will be the full

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term congressman.

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There are a number of candidates.

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There are three particular major candidates in the Republican primary.

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Those three candidates are State Senator Andre Juck, former State Senate President Roger

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Roth and former gas station convenience store chain owner Tony White.

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It seems to be a good race between Roth and White in terms of fundraising.

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And White also has former President Trump's endorsement.

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But despite that, the only poll we have is from March from pollster Signal and it showed

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a completely different candidate, Alex Brucewitz, leading the poll.

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However, since Brucewitz doesn't seem to be on the ballot, I guess we can't really

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use that poll as the main fortune teller.

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So with that, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

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And as always, if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure

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to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com.

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And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com.

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So those are four very important elections set to take place in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

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And I say to you, if you are a registered voter in Minnesota or Wisconsin or in the

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states of Connecticut and Vermont, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that

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you vote.

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So please do.

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Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection.

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If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash

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across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like.

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Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon.

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This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!