1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,640 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection, 2 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,800 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,000 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:37,840 Today we are discussing primary elections set to take place on Tuesday, August 6th. 5 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:45,960 And on that day, not one, not two, not three, but four US states will be holding primary 6 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:46,960 elections. 7 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:54,360 Those four states are Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington State. 8 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:59,920 It also should be noted that this week primaries are also taking place on Saturday, August 9 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:01,720 10th in the state of Hawaii. 10 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,200 Yes, they usually hold their primaries on a Saturday. 11 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,480 However, we're only going to be talking about three states. 12 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,700 We won't be talking about Kansas and we won't be talking about Hawaii as there aren't many 13 00:01:10,700 --> 00:01:12,120 battlegrounds going on there. 14 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:17,320 So, three states to talk about and we also have eight elections to talk about so we're 15 00:01:17,320 --> 00:01:18,960 going to do a little rapid fire today. 16 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:23,200 So let's not waste any time, let's get right to it and let's pack our bags and head to 17 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,680 the Great Lakes State, the state of Michigan. 18 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:32,360 First we head to the Democratic side of things and we head to Michigan's 13th congressional 19 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:33,360 district. 20 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:40,320 Now the current incumbent for Michigan's 13th congressional district is Democrat Shri Tanedar, 21 00:01:40,320 --> 00:01:42,320 first elected back in 2022. 22 00:01:42,320 --> 00:01:47,640 And Representative Tanedar faces two major challengers in his re-election bid, those 23 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:54,320 being former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins and Detroit City Councilwoman Mary 24 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:55,320 Waters. 25 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,920 But Michigan will have a lot to talk about come November with a few toss-up seats as 26 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:04,120 well as a Senate seat, which we'll also be talking about today in the GOP primary for 27 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:05,120 US Senate. 28 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:10,040 Now, Congresswoman Alyssa Slotkin seems to be the shoe-in for the Democratic side, but 29 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,200 there is a bit of a primary battle on the Republican side. 30 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:19,080 There are two major candidates in that race and they are former Congressman Justin Amash 31 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,760 and also former Congressman Mike Rogers. 32 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:27,440 Now Rogers seems to have the edge over Amash in polling, but it's going to be a very close 33 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:28,960 race come November. 34 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,000 So with that we head down to the Show-Me State, the state of Missouri. 35 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,760 First on the Democratic side we're going to be talking about the primary for Missouri's 36 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:38,320 first congressional district. 37 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:43,320 Now the current representative for Missouri's first congressional district is Representative 38 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:44,320 Cori Bush. 39 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:49,040 She's a Democrat, was first elected in 2020 and defeated a long-time incumbent in the 40 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:50,040 process. 41 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:55,080 However, she has gained controversy on her views on the Israel-Hamas war as well as other 42 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,640 progressive issues and with that she faces a serious challenge from St. Louis County 43 00:02:59,640 --> 00:03:01,800 Prosecutor Wesley Bell. 44 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:06,720 And Bell has been leading in every major poll since February. 45 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,600 Some by slim margins, some by big margins. 46 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:11,640 So it's going to be a race to watch. 47 00:03:11,640 --> 00:03:16,480 Now as we flip over to the Republican side, we'll be talking about the GOP primary for 48 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,480 the governor's office. 49 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:22,720 Now the current governor of Missouri is Republican Mike Parson and he has term limited this year 50 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,600 and cannot run for re-election, making the seat open. 51 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:31,920 And it's set to be a solid Republican seat from most analysts, so whoever wins the Republican 52 00:03:31,920 --> 00:03:35,120 primary will have a very good chance of winning in November. 53 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,640 So with that, many of the state's elite have come out to fight. 54 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:40,800 There are three major candidates in the primary. 55 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:47,080 Those are Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, State Senator Bill Eagle, and Lieutenant 56 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,200 Governor of Missouri Mike Kehoe. 57 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:53,340 And the most recent poll from the Remington Research Group sponsored by Missouri Scout 58 00:03:53,340 --> 00:04:00,200 actually shows Ashcroft and Kehoe in a neck and neck even split, each with 29% of the 59 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:01,200 vote. 60 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,240 And there's no runoff system in Missouri. 61 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,840 Whoever gets the most votes wins. 62 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:07,440 So this should be a fun one. 63 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:12,360 And from there we go to Missouri's third congressional district, their GOP primary. 64 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:17,640 Now the current representative for District 3 in Missouri is Republican Congressman Blaine 65 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:19,000 Lutkemeyer. 66 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,920 He is retiring this year, making the seat open. 67 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:23,640 And it's a solid Republican seat. 68 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:28,280 There are two major candidates, both of them just so happen to be ex-state senators, those 69 00:04:28,280 --> 00:04:31,480 being Bob Onder and Kurt Schaeffer. 70 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:36,280 And the last poll from the Remington Research Group sponsored by the Onder campaign, Onder's 71 00:04:36,280 --> 00:04:37,640 leading by 20 points. 72 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,920 But as we all know, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. 73 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:46,560 So now we leave Missouri and we head to the evergreen state, the state of Washington. 74 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:51,120 Now Washington has a number of elections this year, including a governor's race, as well 75 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:55,000 as several House seats that are up for grabs or seem to be as battlegrounds. 76 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:59,240 So you're saying, oh, so Washington will have the Republican and Democratic primaries and 77 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,040 they'll decide who goes on to the election in November, right? 78 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:03,040 Wrong. 79 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,480 For those of you outside of Washington who don't know, Washington uses the same system 80 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,200 as California, that being the top two primary. 81 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:16,080 That means all candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation, appear on one single ballot and 82 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:17,500 a voter votes for one of them. 83 00:05:17,500 --> 00:05:22,120 And the two candidates with the most votes move on to the general election in November, 84 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:26,720 which means that the two general election candidates could be from the same party, which 85 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:28,120 has happened a few times before. 86 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:32,720 So in that case, we'll start with the gubernatorial election in Washington state. 87 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:37,200 And the current governor of Washington is Jay Inslee, who is currently serving his third 88 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:38,680 term as governor. 89 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:40,280 Washington does not have term limits. 90 00:05:40,280 --> 00:05:44,680 However, Jay Inslee has decided not to run for reelection, leaving the seat open. 91 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:48,640 Now there are 28 candidates on the ballot. 92 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,460 You heard that right, 28 candidates. 93 00:05:51,460 --> 00:05:56,440 But there are four major candidates, two from each party, those being on the Republican 94 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:02,720 side, former Richland School Board member Semi Byrd and former Congressman Dave Reichert. 95 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:07,940 On the Democratic side, the two major candidates are Washington attorney general Bob Ferguson 96 00:06:07,940 --> 00:06:09,760 and state senator Mark Mullin. 97 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:14,160 Now the most recent poll from Public Policy Polling, sponsored by the Northwest Progressive 98 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:20,040 Institute, has Ferguson leading with 39% and Reichert right behind with 28%. 99 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:25,340 Now of course, this means that those two will likely move on to the election in November. 100 00:06:25,340 --> 00:06:32,040 But the higher edge one has in a primary like this could mean good for them come November. 101 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,480 And now we're going to talk about two house seats. 102 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,160 Now both of these house seats are interesting. 103 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,480 They're both solid Republican seats. 104 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,480 And basing on how the primary comes out, it could make an interesting race come November 105 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,480 with the whole open primary system. 106 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,180 So we'll go on to Washington's fourth congressional district. 107 00:06:49,180 --> 00:06:54,360 Now the incumbent representative for Washington's fourth congressional district is Representative 108 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,080 Dan Newhouse. 109 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,480 He was first elected way back in 2014. 110 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:04,760 However, Newhouse was one of the Republicans to vote to impeach then President Donald Trump 111 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,760 in 2021, one of only a handful of Republicans. 112 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,720 And that has gotten him a lot of critiques from his right. 113 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:15,040 And there are two major Republican candidates fighting to replace him. 114 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:20,300 Those being businessman Jared Sessler and motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley. 115 00:07:20,300 --> 00:07:23,920 So which makes the possibility that since this is a solid Republican seat, Representative 116 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:28,720 Newhouse could be facing one of those candidates or based on how the vote goes, those two candidates 117 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,160 could be the top two leaving Newhouse out. 118 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,480 So we'll just have to wait and see what happens then. 119 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:37,600 Then we head to finally today, Washington's fifth congressional district. 120 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,760 Now the current representative for Washington's fifth congressional district is Republican 121 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,080 Representative Kathy McMorris Rogers. 122 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:49,400 She was first elected way back in 2004 and is choosing to retire this year. 123 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:50,720 There are 10 candidates. 124 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:56,000 However, there are four major candidates in terms of finance and endorsements, two Republicans 125 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:57,660 and two Democrats. 126 00:07:57,660 --> 00:08:03,760 Those being on the Democratic side, physician Bernardine Bank and Spokane Democratic chair 127 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:05,120 Carmela Conroy. 128 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:09,160 Meanwhile, there are two major candidates who are Republicans. 129 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:14,280 Those being Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner and State House minority floor 130 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,520 leader Jacqueline Maycomber. 131 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,660 Now as mentioned, this is a solid Republican seat. 132 00:08:19,660 --> 00:08:24,500 But what makes this race interesting is that with two major Democrats and two major Republicans 133 00:08:24,500 --> 00:08:29,120 that could possibly split the vote, there is a possibility that the two Democratic candidates 134 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:34,360 could come out on top and be the two candidates in a solid Republican district. 135 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,020 That's the fun in the top two primary. 136 00:08:36,020 --> 00:08:38,360 You really don't know which way it's going to go. 137 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,480 So you'll have to check those races in Washington out on election night because they can get 138 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:43,520 pretty fun. 139 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,480 And as always, if you are willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure 140 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:51,920 to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 141 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:56,160 And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com. 142 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:01,600 So those are elections to watch in Michigan, Missouri and Washington state. 143 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:06,520 And if you're an election junkie like me, I would really check those elections out on 144 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:07,560 August 6. 145 00:09:07,560 --> 00:09:12,600 And as always, I say if you are a registered voter in Michigan, Missouri, Washington state, 146 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:17,460 or as we mentioned earlier, Kansas or Hawaii, all having primaries this week, I don't care 147 00:09:17,460 --> 00:09:20,600 who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 148 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:21,600 So please do. 149 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,980 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 150 00:09:23,980 --> 00:09:28,280 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 151 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:32,860 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 152 00:09:32,860 --> 00:09:58,960 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 153 00:10:02,860 --> 00:11:28,760 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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