Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection,
your election analysis for Across the Circus.
I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are.
Today we are discussing primary elections set to take place on Tuesday, August 6th.
And on that day, not one, not two, not three, but four US states will be holding primary
elections.
Those four states are Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington State.
It also should be noted that this week primaries are also taking place on Saturday, August
10th in the state of Hawaii.
Yes, they usually hold their primaries on a Saturday.
However, we're only going to be talking about three states.
We won't be talking about Kansas and we won't be talking about Hawaii as there aren't many
battlegrounds going on there.
So, three states to talk about and we also have eight elections to talk about so we're
going to do a little rapid fire today.
So let's not waste any time, let's get right to it and let's pack our bags and head to
the Great Lakes State, the state of Michigan.
First we head to the Democratic side of things and we head to Michigan's 13th congressional
district.
Now the current incumbent for Michigan's 13th congressional district is Democrat Shri Tanedar,
first elected back in 2022.
And Representative Tanedar faces two major challengers in his re-election bid, those
being former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins and Detroit City Councilwoman Mary
Waters.
But Michigan will have a lot to talk about come November with a few toss-up seats as
well as a Senate seat, which we'll also be talking about today in the GOP primary for
US Senate.
Now, Congresswoman Alyssa Slotkin seems to be the shoe-in for the Democratic side, but
there is a bit of a primary battle on the Republican side.
There are two major candidates in that race and they are former Congressman Justin Amash
and also former Congressman Mike Rogers.
Now Rogers seems to have the edge over Amash in polling, but it's going to be a very close
race come November.
So with that we head down to the Show-Me State, the state of Missouri.
First on the Democratic side we're going to be talking about the primary for Missouri's
first congressional district.
Now the current representative for Missouri's first congressional district is Representative
Cori Bush.
She's a Democrat, was first elected in 2020 and defeated a long-time incumbent in the
process.
However, she has gained controversy on her views on the Israel-Hamas war as well as other
progressive issues and with that she faces a serious challenge from St. Louis County
Prosecutor Wesley Bell.
And Bell has been leading in every major poll since February.
Some by slim margins, some by big margins.
So it's going to be a race to watch.
Now as we flip over to the Republican side, we'll be talking about the GOP primary for
the governor's office.
Now the current governor of Missouri is Republican Mike Parson and he has term limited this year
and cannot run for re-election, making the seat open.
And it's set to be a solid Republican seat from most analysts, so whoever wins the Republican
primary will have a very good chance of winning in November.
So with that, many of the state's elite have come out to fight.
There are three major candidates in the primary.
Those are Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, State Senator Bill Eagle, and Lieutenant
Governor of Missouri Mike Kehoe.
And the most recent poll from the Remington Research Group sponsored by Missouri Scout
actually shows Ashcroft and Kehoe in a neck and neck even split, each with 29% of the
vote.
And there's no runoff system in Missouri.
Whoever gets the most votes wins.
So this should be a fun one.
And from there we go to Missouri's third congressional district, their GOP primary.
Now the current representative for District 3 in Missouri is Republican Congressman Blaine
Lutkemeyer.
He is retiring this year, making the seat open.
And it's a solid Republican seat.
There are two major candidates, both of them just so happen to be ex-state senators, those
being Bob Onder and Kurt Schaeffer.
And the last poll from the Remington Research Group sponsored by the Onder campaign, Onder's
leading by 20 points.
But as we all know, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
So now we leave Missouri and we head to the evergreen state, the state of Washington.
Now Washington has a number of elections this year, including a governor's race, as well
as several House seats that are up for grabs or seem to be as battlegrounds.
So you're saying, oh, so Washington will have the Republican and Democratic primaries and
they'll decide who goes on to the election in November, right?
Wrong.
For those of you outside of Washington who don't know, Washington uses the same system
as California, that being the top two primary.
That means all candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation, appear on one single ballot and
a voter votes for one of them.
And the two candidates with the most votes move on to the general election in November,
which means that the two general election candidates could be from the same party, which
has happened a few times before.
So in that case, we'll start with the gubernatorial election in Washington state.
And the current governor of Washington is Jay Inslee, who is currently serving his third
term as governor.
Washington does not have term limits.
However, Jay Inslee has decided not to run for reelection, leaving the seat open.
Now there are 28 candidates on the ballot.
You heard that right, 28 candidates.
But there are four major candidates, two from each party, those being on the Republican
side, former Richland School Board member Semi Byrd and former Congressman Dave Reichert.
On the Democratic side, the two major candidates are Washington attorney general Bob Ferguson
and state senator Mark Mullin.
Now the most recent poll from Public Policy Polling, sponsored by the Northwest Progressive
Institute, has Ferguson leading with 39% and Reichert right behind with 28%.
Now of course, this means that those two will likely move on to the election in November.
But the higher edge one has in a primary like this could mean good for them come November.
And now we're going to talk about two house seats.
Now both of these house seats are interesting.
They're both solid Republican seats.
And basing on how the primary comes out, it could make an interesting race come November
with the whole open primary system.
So we'll go on to Washington's fourth congressional district.
Now the incumbent representative for Washington's fourth congressional district is Representative
Dan Newhouse.
He was first elected way back in 2014.
However, Newhouse was one of the Republicans to vote to impeach then President Donald Trump
in 2021, one of only a handful of Republicans.
And that has gotten him a lot of critiques from his right.
And there are two major Republican candidates fighting to replace him.
Those being businessman Jared Sessler and motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley.
So which makes the possibility that since this is a solid Republican seat, Representative
Newhouse could be facing one of those candidates or based on how the vote goes, those two candidates
could be the top two leaving Newhouse out.
So we'll just have to wait and see what happens then.
Then we head to finally today, Washington's fifth congressional district.
Now the current representative for Washington's fifth congressional district is Republican
Representative Kathy McMorris Rogers.
She was first elected way back in 2004 and is choosing to retire this year.
There are 10 candidates.
However, there are four major candidates in terms of finance and endorsements, two Republicans
and two Democrats.
Those being on the Democratic side, physician Bernardine Bank and Spokane Democratic chair
Carmela Conroy.
Meanwhile, there are two major candidates who are Republicans.
Those being Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner and State House minority floor
leader Jacqueline Maycomber.
Now as mentioned, this is a solid Republican seat.
But what makes this race interesting is that with two major Democrats and two major Republicans
that could possibly split the vote, there is a possibility that the two Democratic candidates
could come out on top and be the two candidates in a solid Republican district.
That's the fun in the top two primary.
You really don't know which way it's going to go.
So you'll have to check those races in Washington out on election night because they can get
pretty fun.
And as always, if you are willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure
to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com.
And if you're willing to look at recent polls, be sure to check out 538.com.
So those are elections to watch in Michigan, Missouri and Washington state.
And if you're an election junkie like me, I would really check those elections out on
August 6.
And as always, I say if you are a registered voter in Michigan, Missouri, Washington state,
or as we mentioned earlier, Kansas or Hawaii, all having primaries this week, I don't care
who you vote for, but I do care that you vote.
So please do.
Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection.
If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash
across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like.
Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon.
This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!