Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection,
your election analysis for Across the Circus.
I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are.
So we're back on the regularly scheduled primary schedule.
As you may know, no state had a scheduled primary election from June 25th up until the
date for this next episode.
But you know, we did keep busy.
We talked about the election in the UK, which was fun, and hopefully we'll talk about more
global elections in the future as well as the special election in New Jersey.
But if you've been paying attention to the political world, you'll notice a lot has happened
in the last month, including on the Republican side, an attempt at the life of former President
Donald Trump, as well as his choosing of JD Vance as his running mate, and on the other
side of the coin, the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the presidential race and the
endorsement and the Democrats all coming behind Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic
nomination, which will result in a presidential election like no other.
And I know it seems like they say that every four years, but trust me when I say this,
this is an election like no other.
Meanwhile, for today's program, we're talking about primary elections set to take place
on Tuesday, July 30th, and Thursday, August 1st.
Yes, we're talking about two states today, one state who has their primary on Tuesday,
the 30th, one that holds their primaries usually on a Thursday, in this case, Thursday, August
1st.
Those two states are on the 30th, the state of Arizona, and on August 1st, the state of
Tennessee.
So we're going to be talking about a number of races for this edition of the program,
one Democratic primary, the rest GOP primaries.
So let's not waste any time.
Let's get right to it.
Let's pack our bags and head to the Grand Canyon State, the state of Arizona.
So we'll talk about the lone Democratic primary that we'll be talking about today, and that's
taking place in Arizona's third congressional district.
Now this is Arizona's most Democratic district in the state.
The Cook PVI has the Democrats favored by 24 points.
Yes.
So whoever wins this election is all but sure to win in November.
Now the current representative is Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego.
He is not running for reelection for the House because he is running for the Democratic nomination
for Senate.
And with Kirsten Sinema not running for reelection, although she's no longer a Democrat, she's
now an independent, he is running with token opposition on the Democratic primary.
Now we'll talk about the Republican primary for that race in just a moment, but first
we'll talk about Ruben Gallego's seat in Congress.
Now in this race, there are three major candidates, those being former Phoenix City Councilwoman
Yasemin Ansari, former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran, and physician Duane Wooten.
Now it's a bit of neck and neck in terms of fundraising, Ansari has raised a bit more
than Teran.
However, in polls, Ansari looks to be pretty good in the most recent one.
A recent poll from Polster Lake Research Partners, which was sponsored by the Ansari campaign
for that matter, has Ansari leading by 11 points.
But there was a poll back in April from Polster Target Smart and sponsored by Progress Now
Arizona, which had Teran leading Ansari by 10 points.
And those seem to be the only two major polls in the last calendar year.
And as we all know, I always say on this show, the only poll that matters is the one on election
day.
So we'll just have to wait and see how this one turns out.
So now we go to the Republican side of things.
First we'll start off with the primary for the US Senate seat.
As I mentioned before, Kyrsten Sinema is not running for re-election.
Ruben Gallego is running on the Democratic side.
And on the Republican side, there is a bit of a crowded primary.
Arizona being a swing state, which a lot of pollsters are going to be looking at in the
presidential election this fall.
And the Senate election, based on presidential results, could sway one way or the other.
Now there are two major candidates in the Senate race.
Those being former TV news anchor and 2022 governor nominee for the GOP, Kari Lake, and
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
Now Kari Lake is seen by many as a rising star in the Republican party.
Very pro-Donald Trump, and of course has Donald Trump's endorsement.
And had a very close race in 2022 for the governor's race.
And seems to have major endorsements from the Republican establishment.
And seems to be leading most polls too.
The most recent poll from May, from pollster Noble Predictive Insights, has Lake leading
Lamb by 25 points.
So it looks pretty good for Lake, but we're going to be looking at this race in November,
because it should be very, very close.
And now we head to Republican congressional district races in Arizona.
We'll start with the second congressional district.
Now the current incumbent representative for Arizona's second congressional district is
Republican Eli Crane.
He was first elected just two years ago.
However, he faces a primary challenge from former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith.
Now Crane, according to a Politico article, was one of the only eight House Republicans
to remove Kevin McCarthy from the speakership.
And that perceived him as vulnerable in this election cycle.
And Crane does have a good share of fundraising.
Jack Smith has not fundraised much.
And we don't have any polls on this race either.
This is a safe Republican district, so whoever wins will very likely win in November.
So it should make an interesting race.
Meanwhile, from there we head to the eighth congressional district.
Now the current representative from Arizona's eighth congressional district is Republican
Debbie Lesko, who has served since 2018 after winning a special election to the seat.
She is not running for re-election in the House, but she's not giving up public service.
In fact, she is running for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.
So from there the seats open, and it's a pretty crowded primary.
There are five major candidates in that race, those being former Congressman Trent Franks,
Attorney Abe Hamaday, State Senator Anthony Kern, Venture Capitalist and 2022 GOP Senate
nominee Blake Masters, and State House Speaker Ben Tomah.
Now this is the most crowded primary in Arizona's congressional delegation for the Republican
side.
A lot of well-known local politicians here.
And when it comes to fundraising, Blake Masters seems to be doing very well for himself, a
lot of his campaign being self-funded, as he did two years ago in the Senate race losing
to Mark Kelly.
And it shows to be doing well for him because he is leading polls.
In fact there have been two polls coming out in the past month, the first from July 8th
through the 9th from pollster Fabrizio Lee and Associates and sponsored by the Masters
campaign.
A Masters led Abe Hamaday by only one point, but then a poll from July 17th through 18th
from pollster Data Orbital had Masters leading by three points.
So it seems like the votes are going to be spread out.
That's all from Arizona, so from there we head to the state that's holding its primary
on Thursday, August 1st, we head to the volunteer state, the state of Tennessee.
Now we're only talking about one primary election here and that is from Tennessee's fifth congressional
district.
Now the current representative for Tennessee's fifth congressional district is Republican
Andy Ogless.
He was first elected just two years ago and has been seen as one of the most conservative
members in the House, which has caused him to have a very high profile primary challenge.
His main opponent in the primary is Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston.
And both Ogless and Johnston are neck and neck when it comes to fundraising.
In fact according to an article it showed Ogless's fundraising total was actually the
second lowest for any incumbent running for re-election in the US House.
And we don't seem to have any polls in this race.
However it's said to be an interesting one.
We don't know, we'll just have to wait and see.
And as always if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area be sure to check
out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com and if you're willing to look at recent polls
be sure to check out 538.com.
So a lot of races today, you know I tried to give through each one as best as I could.
The ones in Arizona and the ones in Tennessee, those races I mentioned should be the ones
to watch for on those election nights respectively.
And as always I say if you are a registered voter in the state of Arizona or in the state
of Tennessee I don't care who you vote for but I do care that you vote so please do.
Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection.
If you would like to learn more about the show go online to algidproductions.com slash
across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like.
Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon.
This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!