1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:24,520 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,600 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:31,320 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:37,560 So we're back on the regularly scheduled primary schedule. 5 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:45,340 As you may know, no state had a scheduled primary election from June 25th up until the 6 00:00:45,340 --> 00:00:47,520 date for this next episode. 7 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:48,680 But you know, we did keep busy. 8 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,640 We talked about the election in the UK, which was fun, and hopefully we'll talk about more 9 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,480 global elections in the future as well as the special election in New Jersey. 10 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:01,120 But if you've been paying attention to the political world, you'll notice a lot has happened 11 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:07,600 in the last month, including on the Republican side, an attempt at the life of former President 12 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:13,580 Donald Trump, as well as his choosing of JD Vance as his running mate, and on the other 13 00:01:13,580 --> 00:01:20,640 side of the coin, the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the presidential race and the 14 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:26,260 endorsement and the Democrats all coming behind Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic 15 00:01:26,260 --> 00:01:32,800 nomination, which will result in a presidential election like no other. 16 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:37,480 And I know it seems like they say that every four years, but trust me when I say this, 17 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:39,880 this is an election like no other. 18 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:44,800 Meanwhile, for today's program, we're talking about primary elections set to take place 19 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:49,320 on Tuesday, July 30th, and Thursday, August 1st. 20 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:54,920 Yes, we're talking about two states today, one state who has their primary on Tuesday, 21 00:01:54,920 --> 00:02:00,400 the 30th, one that holds their primaries usually on a Thursday, in this case, Thursday, August 22 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:01,400 1st. 23 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:06,800 Those two states are on the 30th, the state of Arizona, and on August 1st, the state of 24 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:07,920 Tennessee. 25 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:12,800 So we're going to be talking about a number of races for this edition of the program, 26 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,800 one Democratic primary, the rest GOP primaries. 27 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:18,320 So let's not waste any time. 28 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:19,320 Let's get right to it. 29 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:24,300 Let's pack our bags and head to the Grand Canyon State, the state of Arizona. 30 00:02:24,300 --> 00:02:28,880 So we'll talk about the lone Democratic primary that we'll be talking about today, and that's 31 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,400 taking place in Arizona's third congressional district. 32 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,280 Now this is Arizona's most Democratic district in the state. 33 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:41,400 The Cook PVI has the Democrats favored by 24 points. 34 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,000 Yes. 35 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:47,200 So whoever wins this election is all but sure to win in November. 36 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,360 Now the current representative is Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego. 37 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,840 He is not running for reelection for the House because he is running for the Democratic nomination 38 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:57,000 for Senate. 39 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:01,920 And with Kirsten Sinema not running for reelection, although she's no longer a Democrat, she's 40 00:03:01,920 --> 00:03:06,560 now an independent, he is running with token opposition on the Democratic primary. 41 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,640 Now we'll talk about the Republican primary for that race in just a moment, but first 42 00:03:10,640 --> 00:03:13,600 we'll talk about Ruben Gallego's seat in Congress. 43 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:20,200 Now in this race, there are three major candidates, those being former Phoenix City Councilwoman 44 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:28,800 Yasemin Ansari, former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran, and physician Duane Wooten. 45 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:33,720 Now it's a bit of neck and neck in terms of fundraising, Ansari has raised a bit more 46 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:34,720 than Teran. 47 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:38,920 However, in polls, Ansari looks to be pretty good in the most recent one. 48 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:44,040 A recent poll from Polster Lake Research Partners, which was sponsored by the Ansari campaign 49 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,560 for that matter, has Ansari leading by 11 points. 50 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:52,840 But there was a poll back in April from Polster Target Smart and sponsored by Progress Now 51 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:57,840 Arizona, which had Teran leading Ansari by 10 points. 52 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,680 And those seem to be the only two major polls in the last calendar year. 53 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:05,800 And as we all know, I always say on this show, the only poll that matters is the one on election 54 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:06,800 day. 55 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,560 So we'll just have to wait and see how this one turns out. 56 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:13,480 So now we go to the Republican side of things. 57 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,560 First we'll start off with the primary for the US Senate seat. 58 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,680 As I mentioned before, Kyrsten Sinema is not running for re-election. 59 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,920 Ruben Gallego is running on the Democratic side. 60 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,640 And on the Republican side, there is a bit of a crowded primary. 61 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:30,080 Arizona being a swing state, which a lot of pollsters are going to be looking at in the 62 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,460 presidential election this fall. 63 00:04:32,460 --> 00:04:36,440 And the Senate election, based on presidential results, could sway one way or the other. 64 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:40,460 Now there are two major candidates in the Senate race. 65 00:04:40,460 --> 00:04:48,320 Those being former TV news anchor and 2022 governor nominee for the GOP, Kari Lake, and 66 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,380 Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. 67 00:04:51,380 --> 00:04:56,400 Now Kari Lake is seen by many as a rising star in the Republican party. 68 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:00,400 Very pro-Donald Trump, and of course has Donald Trump's endorsement. 69 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:05,160 And had a very close race in 2022 for the governor's race. 70 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,680 And seems to have major endorsements from the Republican establishment. 71 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:11,780 And seems to be leading most polls too. 72 00:05:11,780 --> 00:05:19,220 The most recent poll from May, from pollster Noble Predictive Insights, has Lake leading 73 00:05:19,220 --> 00:05:21,400 Lamb by 25 points. 74 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,880 So it looks pretty good for Lake, but we're going to be looking at this race in November, 75 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,420 because it should be very, very close. 76 00:05:29,420 --> 00:05:34,600 And now we head to Republican congressional district races in Arizona. 77 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,800 We'll start with the second congressional district. 78 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:42,360 Now the current incumbent representative for Arizona's second congressional district is 79 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,360 Republican Eli Crane. 80 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,520 He was first elected just two years ago. 81 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:52,960 However, he faces a primary challenge from former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith. 82 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:58,400 Now Crane, according to a Politico article, was one of the only eight House Republicans 83 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,320 to remove Kevin McCarthy from the speakership. 84 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,560 And that perceived him as vulnerable in this election cycle. 85 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,040 And Crane does have a good share of fundraising. 86 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,280 Jack Smith has not fundraised much. 87 00:06:10,280 --> 00:06:12,740 And we don't have any polls on this race either. 88 00:06:12,740 --> 00:06:16,840 This is a safe Republican district, so whoever wins will very likely win in November. 89 00:06:16,840 --> 00:06:18,720 So it should make an interesting race. 90 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,720 Meanwhile, from there we head to the eighth congressional district. 91 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:27,680 Now the current representative from Arizona's eighth congressional district is Republican 92 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:33,140 Debbie Lesko, who has served since 2018 after winning a special election to the seat. 93 00:06:33,140 --> 00:06:37,880 She is not running for re-election in the House, but she's not giving up public service. 94 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:44,120 In fact, she is running for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. 95 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,360 So from there the seats open, and it's a pretty crowded primary. 96 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:54,120 There are five major candidates in that race, those being former Congressman Trent Franks, 97 00:06:54,120 --> 00:07:02,200 Attorney Abe Hamaday, State Senator Anthony Kern, Venture Capitalist and 2022 GOP Senate 98 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:07,400 nominee Blake Masters, and State House Speaker Ben Tomah. 99 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:13,320 Now this is the most crowded primary in Arizona's congressional delegation for the Republican 100 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:14,320 side. 101 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:16,800 A lot of well-known local politicians here. 102 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:21,360 And when it comes to fundraising, Blake Masters seems to be doing very well for himself, a 103 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,900 lot of his campaign being self-funded, as he did two years ago in the Senate race losing 104 00:07:25,900 --> 00:07:27,300 to Mark Kelly. 105 00:07:27,300 --> 00:07:31,400 And it shows to be doing well for him because he is leading polls. 106 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:36,120 In fact there have been two polls coming out in the past month, the first from July 8th 107 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:40,680 through the 9th from pollster Fabrizio Lee and Associates and sponsored by the Masters 108 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:41,680 campaign. 109 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:47,840 A Masters led Abe Hamaday by only one point, but then a poll from July 17th through 18th 110 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:52,920 from pollster Data Orbital had Masters leading by three points. 111 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,120 So it seems like the votes are going to be spread out. 112 00:07:56,120 --> 00:08:00,220 That's all from Arizona, so from there we head to the state that's holding its primary 113 00:08:00,220 --> 00:08:06,680 on Thursday, August 1st, we head to the volunteer state, the state of Tennessee. 114 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:12,360 Now we're only talking about one primary election here and that is from Tennessee's fifth congressional 115 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:13,360 district. 116 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:18,320 Now the current representative for Tennessee's fifth congressional district is Republican 117 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:19,320 Andy Ogless. 118 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:24,920 He was first elected just two years ago and has been seen as one of the most conservative 119 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:31,400 members in the House, which has caused him to have a very high profile primary challenge. 120 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:38,040 His main opponent in the primary is Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston. 121 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:43,400 And both Ogless and Johnston are neck and neck when it comes to fundraising. 122 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:47,440 In fact according to an article it showed Ogless's fundraising total was actually the 123 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:53,060 second lowest for any incumbent running for re-election in the US House. 124 00:08:53,060 --> 00:08:56,920 And we don't seem to have any polls in this race. 125 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:58,960 However it's said to be an interesting one. 126 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,640 We don't know, we'll just have to wait and see. 127 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,780 And as always if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area be sure to check 128 00:09:05,780 --> 00:09:10,880 out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com and if you're willing to look at recent polls 129 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,640 be sure to check out 538.com. 130 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:18,000 So a lot of races today, you know I tried to give through each one as best as I could. 131 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:22,720 The ones in Arizona and the ones in Tennessee, those races I mentioned should be the ones 132 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:27,200 to watch for on those election nights respectively. 133 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:31,160 And as always I say if you are a registered voter in the state of Arizona or in the state 134 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:37,000 of Tennessee I don't care who you vote for but I do care that you vote so please do. 135 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,680 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection. 136 00:09:39,680 --> 00:09:44,880 If you would like to learn more about the show go online to algidproductions.com slash 137 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,600 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 138 00:09:49,600 --> 00:10:16,240 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 139 00:10:20,600 --> 00:11:46,000 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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