1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:25,600 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,880 your election analysis for across the circus. 3 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,200 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:37,740 So as you may recall our last show we did a fun little experiment talking about an international 5 00:00:37,740 --> 00:00:41,720 election, I think that was fun, we might do some more of that in the future. 6 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,940 But we're going to head back home to the United States today and today we're talking about 7 00:00:45,940 --> 00:00:50,600 an election set to occur on Tuesday, July 16th. 8 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:55,760 So we're going to pack our bags and head to the Garden State, the state of New Jersey. 9 00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:01,800 Now all of you election analysts out there and loyal listeners to the show and podcast 10 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:06,600 lander you're all probably wondering to yourself, well Frank, the New Jersey primary already 11 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,640 happened you even talked about it on the show. 12 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:11,040 Well that is true. 13 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:16,080 However we go back to New Jersey today for a special election, specifically the Democratic 14 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:20,500 primary for New Jersey's 10th congressional district. 15 00:01:20,500 --> 00:01:24,560 Now you're probably wondering how come a special election is taking place so quickly after 16 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,280 the primary election? 17 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,320 Well it is a bit to get into but I'll try to do it the best way I can. 18 00:01:29,320 --> 00:01:35,640 So here is the deal, on April 24th of this year the current representative for New Jersey's 19 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:40,580 10th congressional district Democrat Donald Payne Jr. sadly passed away. 20 00:01:40,580 --> 00:01:47,880 Now the filing deadline for New Jersey elections for the primary was on March 25th and as Donald 21 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:53,040 Payne Jr. was the only person on the primary ballot nobody could vote for anybody else 22 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,920 when the primary came along and it was too late to make any changes. 23 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:02,800 So on primary election day back on June 4th Donald Payne Jr. posthumously won the primary 24 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,640 by default being the only candidate on the ballot. 25 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:11,480 So now according to New Jersey law since Donald Payne Jr. sadly cannot be in the November 26 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:17,240 general election he must be replaced by a new nominee and according to New Jersey law 27 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:23,760 that nominee must be made by the party county officials of the counties in which the seat 28 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:30,400 is taking place, in this case Essex County, Hudson County, and Union County. 29 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:35,720 However at the same time governor of the state Phil Murphy made a special election due to 30 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:41,920 take place before the general election, a primary held on July 16th with a general election 31 00:02:41,920 --> 00:02:44,280 set to be held on September 18th. 32 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,400 And because of this the county official meeting where they pick the nominee will likely take 33 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,440 place after this primary election basically ensuring that whoever wins the primary will 34 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:58,800 very likely be the nominee chosen by the county officials for the general election. 35 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:00,760 So with that we talk about the primary. 36 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:06,720 Now this district contains the city of Newark among other surrounding areas it is completely 37 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:11,600 urban and also according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index Democrats are favored in this 38 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,320 seat by 30 percentage points. 39 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:19,600 So whoever wins this election this primary election is all but guaranteed to win not 40 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:24,680 just the special general election in September but also the general election in November. 41 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:29,520 So many prominent politicians around the area are choosing to run. 42 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:36,020 According to most articles and analysis there are two major candidates in this race those 43 00:03:36,020 --> 00:03:44,140 being the mayor of Linden Derek Armstead and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver. 44 00:03:44,140 --> 00:03:48,280 So we don't really have many polls in this race but there are some fundraising numbers. 45 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:54,120 LaMonica McIver seems to have the edge there with a few more bucks than Derek Armstead. 46 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:59,140 Also McIver does have many notable endorsements including governor Phil Murphy whom we just 47 00:03:59,140 --> 00:04:03,560 mentioned as well as current senator Cory Booker of New Jersey as well as many local 48 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:09,680 unions as well as both the Essex County and Union County Democratic Committee which as 49 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:14,760 I mentioned earlier will be the officials who are deciding who is the nominee after 50 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,640 the primary election. 51 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:22,040 So you could say it looks pretty good for LaMonica McIver despite no polls we can see 52 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:28,360 she does have an edge in terms of fundraising and endorsements but as we all know the poll 53 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,440 on election day is the one that truly matters the most. 54 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:37,400 Then Donald Payne Jr. held this seat for a long time and his father Donald Payne Sr. 55 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:42,240 also held the seat for a long time so whoever wins this election could very well hold on 56 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:46,600 to this seat for many many years or maybe even use it as a stepping stone for higher 57 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:47,600 office. 58 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:48,600 We'll just have to wait and see. 59 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:52,800 And as always if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area be sure to check 60 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:57,560 out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com and if you're willing to look at recent polls 61 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,040 be sure to check out 538.com. 62 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:06,680 And I always say to you if you are a registered voter in New Jersey's 10th congressional 63 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,760 district I don't care who you vote for but I do care that you vote so please do. 64 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,480 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection if you'd like to learn more about 65 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:20,800 the show go online to algertproductions.com slash across the circus and be sure to listen 66 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,780 to us on any podcasting form you like. 67 00:05:23,780 --> 00:05:50,840 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 68 00:05:53,780 --> 00:07:23,260 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!