Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection,
your election analysis for across the circus.
I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are.
So as you may recall our last show we did a fun little experiment talking about an international
election, I think that was fun, we might do some more of that in the future.
But we're going to head back home to the United States today and today we're talking about
an election set to occur on Tuesday, July 16th.
So we're going to pack our bags and head to the Garden State, the state of New Jersey.
Now all of you election analysts out there and loyal listeners to the show and podcast
lander you're all probably wondering to yourself, well Frank, the New Jersey primary already
happened you even talked about it on the show.
Well that is true.
However we go back to New Jersey today for a special election, specifically the Democratic
primary for New Jersey's 10th congressional district.
Now you're probably wondering how come a special election is taking place so quickly after
the primary election?
Well it is a bit to get into but I'll try to do it the best way I can.
So here is the deal, on April 24th of this year the current representative for New Jersey's
10th congressional district Democrat Donald Payne Jr. sadly passed away.
Now the filing deadline for New Jersey elections for the primary was on March 25th and as Donald
Payne Jr. was the only person on the primary ballot nobody could vote for anybody else
when the primary came along and it was too late to make any changes.
So on primary election day back on June 4th Donald Payne Jr. posthumously won the primary
by default being the only candidate on the ballot.
So now according to New Jersey law since Donald Payne Jr. sadly cannot be in the November
general election he must be replaced by a new nominee and according to New Jersey law
that nominee must be made by the party county officials of the counties in which the seat
is taking place, in this case Essex County, Hudson County, and Union County.
However at the same time governor of the state Phil Murphy made a special election due to
take place before the general election, a primary held on July 16th with a general election
set to be held on September 18th.
And because of this the county official meeting where they pick the nominee will likely take
place after this primary election basically ensuring that whoever wins the primary will
very likely be the nominee chosen by the county officials for the general election.
So with that we talk about the primary.
Now this district contains the city of Newark among other surrounding areas it is completely
urban and also according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index Democrats are favored in this
seat by 30 percentage points.
So whoever wins this election this primary election is all but guaranteed to win not
just the special general election in September but also the general election in November.
So many prominent politicians around the area are choosing to run.
According to most articles and analysis there are two major candidates in this race those
being the mayor of Linden Derek Armstead and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver.
So we don't really have many polls in this race but there are some fundraising numbers.
LaMonica McIver seems to have the edge there with a few more bucks than Derek Armstead.
Also McIver does have many notable endorsements including governor Phil Murphy whom we just
mentioned as well as current senator Cory Booker of New Jersey as well as many local
unions as well as both the Essex County and Union County Democratic Committee which as
I mentioned earlier will be the officials who are deciding who is the nominee after
the primary election.
So you could say it looks pretty good for LaMonica McIver despite no polls we can see
she does have an edge in terms of fundraising and endorsements but as we all know the poll
on election day is the one that truly matters the most.
Then Donald Payne Jr. held this seat for a long time and his father Donald Payne Sr.
also held the seat for a long time so whoever wins this election could very well hold on
to this seat for many many years or maybe even use it as a stepping stone for higher
office.
We'll just have to wait and see.
And as always if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area be sure to check
out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com and if you're willing to look at recent polls
be sure to check out 538.com.
And I always say to you if you are a registered voter in New Jersey's 10th congressional
district I don't care who you vote for but I do care that you vote so please do.
Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection if you'd like to learn more about
the show go online to algertproductions.com slash across the circus and be sure to listen
to us on any podcasting form you like.
Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon.
This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!