Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection,
your election analysis for Across the Circus.
I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are.
So today we are discussing primary elections set to take place on Tuesday, June 25th, 2024.
And three US states will be holding their primary elections that day.
Those states being Colorado, New York, and Utah.
Now if you've listened to my show before you know that I'll go to Ballotpedia.com, check
out the battleground elections and those are the ones we're talking about because those
are the ones that will be closely analyzed by political analysts across the country.
Well despite only three states holding primary elections there are a lot of battleground
races for that day.
In fact today we are talking about 11 different primary elections.
You heard that right, 11.
So we're going to be doing this show a little differently than usual.
I would take time to really analyze each race but this episode would probably go pretty
long if we did.
So it will probably be more of a rapid fire type thing.
If there is an interesting polling or fundraising thing we might get to it but we'll see.
But we just want to go and get all these out of the way.
So with that let's not waste any time and let's get right to it.
So to start let's pack our bags and head to the centennial state, the state of Colorado.
So Colorado has eight congressional districts and we're going to be talking about four of
them here today.
And coincidentally all four of these races are Republican primaries.
Now for some of them they are solid Republican seats meaning the winner of the primary will
very likely win the general election but there is a toss up in between here as well.
A race that we'll look forward to in November which could alter the balance of the U.S.
House.
So we'll start in district three.
According to Cook's PVI Republicans are favored by seven points in this district.
Now the current representative is representative Lauren Bolbert who has gained a lot of news
over the past couple of years for saying some controversial stuff and controversial actions.
She is not running for reelection to her seat but she's not exactly leaving the U.S. House
of Representatives.
More on that later.
In the third congressional district there are four major candidates and those candidates
are financial advisor Russ Andrews, former state representative Ron Hanks, attorney Jeff
Heard, and state Board of Education member Steven Varela.
So with that we go next door to district four.
Now district four is an interesting case because the seat is currently vacant.
In fact there is a special election set to take place on June 25th to determine who's
going to hold that seat and we didn't discuss the primary for that because well it was very
uncompetitive.
And the current Republican candidate is ex-SBA state director Greg Lopez and he is all but
certain to win the special election.
However he is not running in the regularly scheduled election for the seat which makes
the seat open again.
So formerly Ken Buck held this seat but he resigned in March and now this election will
determine who holds it until January.
But the primary will decide who could potentially hold that seat starting in January.
And in this race there are six major candidates.
Yes, six.
They are incumbent congresswoman from Colorado's third congressional district Lauren Bobert.
See I told you.
Also radio show host Deborah Flora, state representative Richard Holtorf, former state
house minority leader Mike Lynch, Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg and mortgage
banker Peter Yu.
And then we'll go next door again to district five.
The current representative for district five is Republican Doug Lamborn and he is retiring
leaving the seat open.
And for this solid Republican seat, oh also I should mention that the fourth congressional
district has a cook PVI of 13 points.
The fifth congressional district has a PVI of nine points favored by the Republicans.
And there are only two candidates though and those candidates are political consultant
Jeff Crank and state GOP chair Dave Williams.
And finally we'll go to district eight.
Now the current representative for district eight is a Democratic representative Yadera
Caraveo and this district has an even cook PVI rating which means it is a literal coin
flip on who's going to win this election.
And Yadera Caraveo is a one term congresswoman so she's very vulnerable to the Republicans.
So with that there are two major Republican candidates.
Those being state representative Gabe Evans and former state representative Janik Joshi.
So district eight will be a race to watch come November but the Republican primary will
be one to watch too.
So that's all for Colorado.
So now we'll head to the Empire State, the state of New York.
So for the state of New York we're talking about three congressional seats and two of
them are currently held by Republicans but we're all talking about Democratic primaries
because these races could be very competitive come November and whoever the Democratic nominee
is could make the race very important.
So to start we'll go to district one.
So the current representative for New York's first congressional district is one term Republican
congressman Nick LaLotta and this according to the Cook's PVI is favored by Republicans
by three points which could be good for the Republicans but the Democrats see it as a
place to gain a seat in a very divided Congress.
So there are two major candidates.
Those candidates are former CNN show anchor John Avalon and college professor Nancy Goroff.
Now we'll head to district 16.
Now district 16 is a very Democratic district.
Democrats are favored by 20 points over that according to the PVI.
The current congressman is Jamal Bowman, Democrat first elected in 2020 and defeated a longtime
incumbent Elliot Engel in the primary.
However he is facing a challenger more to his right as he is a very progressive congressman.
His opponent is Westchester County executive George Latimer.
An important thing to note about this race.
Now both candidates have raised about nine million dollars in between them.
However satellite groups and this is according to ad impact satellite groups have spent over
23 million dollars on both candidates with money going to them, money going against them
and everything in between.
This makes this the most expensive primary election in the history of the US House of
Representatives.
Not primary elections just in the state of New York for the US House primaries for the
US House period.
And that is going to be the race to watch out of all of the ones we're talking today.
So keep an eye on that one.
And from there we go to district 22.
Now district 22 is favored by Democrats by one point.
Meaning it is very close despite that there is a Republican representative in that seat.
One term congressman Brandon Williams.
In the Democratic primary there are two major candidates.
They are DeWitt town councilwoman Sarah Clea Hood and state senator John Mania.
And the Democrats are hoping whoever wins this race can hopefully get the seat back.
So there are a bit of similarities here between Colorado and New York.
Very competitive primary elections for safe seats as well as competitive primaries for
toss up seats.
You know.
Just go to show you how big our nation is.
There are a lot of similarities.
And from there our last stop today we head to the beehive state.
The state of Utah.
Now unlike the previous two states where the most competitive races are for the US House.
Today we're talking about a governor's race, a senate race, and a house race.
All three.
So we'll start on the governor side of things.
The current governor is governor Spencer Cox.
He was first elected governor in 2020.
And over the years he's been seen as a moderate Republican that has acquired a challenge from
his right.
Where his only opponent in the primary is state representative Phil Lyman.
And with Utah being one of the most Republican states in the country.
This is a good indicator to see whether the Republican establishment of said state is
moving toward the middle or moving toward the right.
We'll just have to wait and see.
So from there we head to a senate race.
Now incumbent senator Mitt Romney, former 2012 presidential candidate, is retiring from
the senate this year.
Oh and fun fact about Mitt Romney for those who don't know.
Former governor of Massachusetts and current senator of Utah.
He is one of only three people in the history of the United States to be a governor from
one state and a senator from a different one.
The more you know.
So with his retirement there is a crowded primary for his place.
And as I said before, Utah being a very Republican state thus makes a crowded primary.
There are four major candidates and they are congressman John Curtis, mayor of Riverton
Trent Staggs, businessman Jason Walton, and former state house speaker Brad Wilson.
And with this whoever wins this senate primary will very likely win in November and could
hold this seat for really as long as they please for all we know.
And from there our final race for today we head to Utah's second congressional district.
Now to long time listeners of my show, this district might sound familiar.
This was actually one of the first elections I talked about on my show when I started last
year.
It was a special election for the primary for the second congressional district won
by Celesta Malloy.
It's funny how life comes around to you, you know.
Anyway this is a very Republican district.
Republicans are favored by 11 points according to the Cook PBI.
And despite that Celesta Malloy is facing a reputable challenger.
She is facing technology executive Colby Jenkins.
And it should be noted that I mentioned way back that year that the state of Utah holds
conventions to determine who will be on the party's ballot.
And Jenkins actually beat Malloy in that vote.
However, since Malloy received more than 40% of the votes she still gets to compete in
the primary anyway.
This is according to an article from Desiree News.
And as always if you are willing to learn more about elections in your area be sure
to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com or as I mentioned more on this episode be
sure to check out Cook's partisan voting index.
And if you're willing to look at recent polls be sure to check out 538.com.
I know it was a lot.
So thank you for bearing with me on this episode.
So those are important elections in Colorado, New York and Utah for Tuesday, June 25th,
2024.
And as always I say if you are a registered voter in Colorado, New York or Utah I don't
care who you vote for.
But I do care that you vote.
So please do.
Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection.
If you would like to learn more about the show go online to algidproductions.com
slash across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like.
Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon.
This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening.