1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,960 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,900 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:26,900 --> 00:00:30,440 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:37,480 So today we are discussing primary elections set to take place on Tuesday, June 25th, 2024. 5 00:00:37,480 --> 00:00:42,880 And three US states will be holding their primary elections that day. 6 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:47,920 Those states being Colorado, New York, and Utah. 7 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:53,560 Now if you've listened to my show before you know that I'll go to Ballotpedia.com, check 8 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:58,160 out the battleground elections and those are the ones we're talking about because those 9 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:03,720 are the ones that will be closely analyzed by political analysts across the country. 10 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:10,200 Well despite only three states holding primary elections there are a lot of battleground 11 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:11,840 races for that day. 12 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:17,880 In fact today we are talking about 11 different primary elections. 13 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:19,680 You heard that right, 11. 14 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:23,080 So we're going to be doing this show a little differently than usual. 15 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:28,000 I would take time to really analyze each race but this episode would probably go pretty 16 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:29,520 long if we did. 17 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:33,840 So it will probably be more of a rapid fire type thing. 18 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:39,760 If there is an interesting polling or fundraising thing we might get to it but we'll see. 19 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:44,120 But we just want to go and get all these out of the way. 20 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,840 So with that let's not waste any time and let's get right to it. 21 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:54,660 So to start let's pack our bags and head to the centennial state, the state of Colorado. 22 00:01:54,660 --> 00:02:00,000 So Colorado has eight congressional districts and we're going to be talking about four of 23 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,420 them here today. 24 00:02:01,420 --> 00:02:06,440 And coincidentally all four of these races are Republican primaries. 25 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,940 Now for some of them they are solid Republican seats meaning the winner of the primary will 26 00:02:10,940 --> 00:02:15,920 very likely win the general election but there is a toss up in between here as well. 27 00:02:15,920 --> 00:02:21,160 A race that we'll look forward to in November which could alter the balance of the U.S. 28 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:22,160 House. 29 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,640 So we'll start in district three. 30 00:02:24,640 --> 00:02:30,680 According to Cook's PVI Republicans are favored by seven points in this district. 31 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,800 Now the current representative is representative Lauren Bolbert who has gained a lot of news 32 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,240 over the past couple of years for saying some controversial stuff and controversial actions. 33 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:45,600 She is not running for reelection to her seat but she's not exactly leaving the U.S. House 34 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,080 of Representatives. 35 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:48,400 More on that later. 36 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,120 In the third congressional district there are four major candidates and those candidates 37 00:02:53,120 --> 00:03:00,440 are financial advisor Russ Andrews, former state representative Ron Hanks, attorney Jeff 38 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:05,640 Heard, and state Board of Education member Steven Varela. 39 00:03:05,640 --> 00:03:08,440 So with that we go next door to district four. 40 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:13,240 Now district four is an interesting case because the seat is currently vacant. 41 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:18,260 In fact there is a special election set to take place on June 25th to determine who's 42 00:03:18,260 --> 00:03:23,280 going to hold that seat and we didn't discuss the primary for that because well it was very 43 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:24,280 uncompetitive. 44 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:30,100 And the current Republican candidate is ex-SBA state director Greg Lopez and he is all but 45 00:03:30,100 --> 00:03:32,640 certain to win the special election. 46 00:03:32,640 --> 00:03:40,000 However he is not running in the regularly scheduled election for the seat which makes 47 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:41,980 the seat open again. 48 00:03:41,980 --> 00:03:47,520 So formerly Ken Buck held this seat but he resigned in March and now this election will 49 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,160 determine who holds it until January. 50 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:56,000 But the primary will decide who could potentially hold that seat starting in January. 51 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,320 And in this race there are six major candidates. 52 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:00,320 Yes, six. 53 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:06,840 They are incumbent congresswoman from Colorado's third congressional district Lauren Bobert. 54 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,520 See I told you. 55 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:14,960 Also radio show host Deborah Flora, state representative Richard Holtorf, former state 56 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:21,240 house minority leader Mike Lynch, Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg and mortgage 57 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,080 banker Peter Yu. 58 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,400 And then we'll go next door again to district five. 59 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:31,760 The current representative for district five is Republican Doug Lamborn and he is retiring 60 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,300 leaving the seat open. 61 00:04:33,300 --> 00:04:37,620 And for this solid Republican seat, oh also I should mention that the fourth congressional 62 00:04:37,620 --> 00:04:41,480 district has a cook PVI of 13 points. 63 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:46,840 The fifth congressional district has a PVI of nine points favored by the Republicans. 64 00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:51,000 And there are only two candidates though and those candidates are political consultant 65 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:56,180 Jeff Crank and state GOP chair Dave Williams. 66 00:04:56,180 --> 00:04:58,740 And finally we'll go to district eight. 67 00:04:58,740 --> 00:05:03,760 Now the current representative for district eight is a Democratic representative Yadera 68 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:10,840 Caraveo and this district has an even cook PVI rating which means it is a literal coin 69 00:05:10,840 --> 00:05:13,040 flip on who's going to win this election. 70 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:19,260 And Yadera Caraveo is a one term congresswoman so she's very vulnerable to the Republicans. 71 00:05:19,260 --> 00:05:22,420 So with that there are two major Republican candidates. 72 00:05:22,420 --> 00:05:27,760 Those being state representative Gabe Evans and former state representative Janik Joshi. 73 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,960 So district eight will be a race to watch come November but the Republican primary will 74 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:33,880 be one to watch too. 75 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:35,540 So that's all for Colorado. 76 00:05:35,540 --> 00:05:40,260 So now we'll head to the Empire State, the state of New York. 77 00:05:40,260 --> 00:05:44,840 So for the state of New York we're talking about three congressional seats and two of 78 00:05:44,840 --> 00:05:50,320 them are currently held by Republicans but we're all talking about Democratic primaries 79 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:55,440 because these races could be very competitive come November and whoever the Democratic nominee 80 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,080 is could make the race very important. 81 00:05:58,080 --> 00:05:59,840 So to start we'll go to district one. 82 00:05:59,840 --> 00:06:05,000 So the current representative for New York's first congressional district is one term Republican 83 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:11,240 congressman Nick LaLotta and this according to the Cook's PVI is favored by Republicans 84 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:16,920 by three points which could be good for the Republicans but the Democrats see it as a 85 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,760 place to gain a seat in a very divided Congress. 86 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,320 So there are two major candidates. 87 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:29,600 Those candidates are former CNN show anchor John Avalon and college professor Nancy Goroff. 88 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,400 Now we'll head to district 16. 89 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:37,920 Now district 16 is a very Democratic district. 90 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,480 Democrats are favored by 20 points over that according to the PVI. 91 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:49,880 The current congressman is Jamal Bowman, Democrat first elected in 2020 and defeated a longtime 92 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,120 incumbent Elliot Engel in the primary. 93 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:59,880 However he is facing a challenger more to his right as he is a very progressive congressman. 94 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:04,000 His opponent is Westchester County executive George Latimer. 95 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,520 An important thing to note about this race. 96 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:12,840 Now both candidates have raised about nine million dollars in between them. 97 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:19,280 However satellite groups and this is according to ad impact satellite groups have spent over 98 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:26,720 23 million dollars on both candidates with money going to them, money going against them 99 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,240 and everything in between. 100 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:35,760 This makes this the most expensive primary election in the history of the US House of 101 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,240 Representatives. 102 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,760 Not primary elections just in the state of New York for the US House primaries for the 103 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,240 US House period. 104 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:48,420 And that is going to be the race to watch out of all of the ones we're talking today. 105 00:07:48,420 --> 00:07:50,480 So keep an eye on that one. 106 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,360 And from there we go to district 22. 107 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,400 Now district 22 is favored by Democrats by one point. 108 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:02,480 Meaning it is very close despite that there is a Republican representative in that seat. 109 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,960 One term congressman Brandon Williams. 110 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,000 In the Democratic primary there are two major candidates. 111 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:14,180 They are DeWitt town councilwoman Sarah Clea Hood and state senator John Mania. 112 00:08:14,180 --> 00:08:18,740 And the Democrats are hoping whoever wins this race can hopefully get the seat back. 113 00:08:18,740 --> 00:08:22,600 So there are a bit of similarities here between Colorado and New York. 114 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,440 Very competitive primary elections for safe seats as well as competitive primaries for 115 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:27,440 toss up seats. 116 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:28,440 You know. 117 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,840 Just go to show you how big our nation is. 118 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:32,580 There are a lot of similarities. 119 00:08:32,580 --> 00:08:36,280 And from there our last stop today we head to the beehive state. 120 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:37,360 The state of Utah. 121 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:43,480 Now unlike the previous two states where the most competitive races are for the US House. 122 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:49,480 Today we're talking about a governor's race, a senate race, and a house race. 123 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:50,680 All three. 124 00:08:50,680 --> 00:08:53,840 So we'll start on the governor side of things. 125 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,340 The current governor is governor Spencer Cox. 126 00:08:57,340 --> 00:08:59,940 He was first elected governor in 2020. 127 00:08:59,940 --> 00:09:05,840 And over the years he's been seen as a moderate Republican that has acquired a challenge from 128 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:06,840 his right. 129 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:11,020 Where his only opponent in the primary is state representative Phil Lyman. 130 00:09:11,020 --> 00:09:15,240 And with Utah being one of the most Republican states in the country. 131 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,920 This is a good indicator to see whether the Republican establishment of said state is 132 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,560 moving toward the middle or moving toward the right. 133 00:09:21,560 --> 00:09:23,400 We'll just have to wait and see. 134 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,280 So from there we head to a senate race. 135 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:31,680 Now incumbent senator Mitt Romney, former 2012 presidential candidate, is retiring from 136 00:09:31,680 --> 00:09:32,840 the senate this year. 137 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,180 Oh and fun fact about Mitt Romney for those who don't know. 138 00:09:36,180 --> 00:09:39,640 Former governor of Massachusetts and current senator of Utah. 139 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:44,820 He is one of only three people in the history of the United States to be a governor from 140 00:09:44,820 --> 00:09:47,200 one state and a senator from a different one. 141 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:48,200 The more you know. 142 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,560 So with his retirement there is a crowded primary for his place. 143 00:09:51,560 --> 00:09:56,800 And as I said before, Utah being a very Republican state thus makes a crowded primary. 144 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:02,960 There are four major candidates and they are congressman John Curtis, mayor of Riverton 145 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:10,080 Trent Staggs, businessman Jason Walton, and former state house speaker Brad Wilson. 146 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:15,520 And with this whoever wins this senate primary will very likely win in November and could 147 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:19,380 hold this seat for really as long as they please for all we know. 148 00:10:19,380 --> 00:10:24,680 And from there our final race for today we head to Utah's second congressional district. 149 00:10:24,680 --> 00:10:29,980 Now to long time listeners of my show, this district might sound familiar. 150 00:10:29,980 --> 00:10:35,220 This was actually one of the first elections I talked about on my show when I started last 151 00:10:35,220 --> 00:10:36,220 year. 152 00:10:36,220 --> 00:10:39,660 It was a special election for the primary for the second congressional district won 153 00:10:39,660 --> 00:10:41,480 by Celesta Malloy. 154 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,520 It's funny how life comes around to you, you know. 155 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,280 Anyway this is a very Republican district. 156 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,240 Republicans are favored by 11 points according to the Cook PBI. 157 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,800 And despite that Celesta Malloy is facing a reputable challenger. 158 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,040 She is facing technology executive Colby Jenkins. 159 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:02,840 And it should be noted that I mentioned way back that year that the state of Utah holds 160 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,320 conventions to determine who will be on the party's ballot. 161 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:10,280 And Jenkins actually beat Malloy in that vote. 162 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,280 However, since Malloy received more than 40% of the votes she still gets to compete in 163 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,640 the primary anyway. 164 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,640 This is according to an article from Desiree News. 165 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:23,800 And as always if you are willing to learn more about elections in your area be sure 166 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:30,240 to check out politics1.com as well as ballotpedia.com or as I mentioned more on this episode be 167 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,080 sure to check out Cook's partisan voting index. 168 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,280 And if you're willing to look at recent polls be sure to check out 538.com. 169 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,000 I know it was a lot. 170 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,120 So thank you for bearing with me on this episode. 171 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:48,840 So those are important elections in Colorado, New York and Utah for Tuesday, June 25th, 172 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:49,940 2024. 173 00:11:49,940 --> 00:11:56,360 And as always I say if you are a registered voter in Colorado, New York or Utah I don't 174 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,640 care who you vote for. 175 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,800 But I do care that you vote. 176 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,800 So please do. 177 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,260 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection. 178 00:12:05,260 --> 00:12:09,160 If you would like to learn more about the show go online to algidproductions.com 179 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:14,400 slash across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 180 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:44,360 Thank you all for listening and I will see you all very soon. 181 00:12:44,360 -->00:14:10,240 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening.