1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:25,440 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,040 your election analysis for across the circus. 3 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,400 I hope you all are doing well today, wherever you are. 4 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:37,600 So today we're looking at primaries that are set to take place on Tuesday, June 11th. 5 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,640 That day, four US states are holding primary elections. 6 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:47,000 Those states being Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina. 7 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,560 And we're going to be talking about a lot of races today, Senate races, Governor races, 8 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:51,560 and House races. 9 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,720 So let's not waste any time, let's get right to it. 10 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,320 We're specifically talking about races in three states. 11 00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:01,280 So to begin, let's pack our bags and head to the Silver State, the state of Nevada. 12 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:06,720 Now this is set to be a very close general election this year, especially with the Democrats 13 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,760 wanting to retain the US Senate. 14 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:13,760 So Nevada Republicans are really going balls to the wall in this primary. 15 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:18,640 Many Republicans have filed for this primary election, but there are three major candidates 16 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:19,640 in this race. 17 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:25,900 Those three candidates being, businessman Sam Brown, former US ambassador Jeff Gunter, 18 00:01:25,900 --> 00:01:28,660 and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant. 19 00:01:28,660 --> 00:01:34,080 Now Sam Brown seems to have raised a lot of money, and that can partly be due to his popularity 20 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:38,520 within the Nevada Republican Party, as he garnered a lot of attention two years ago 21 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:43,840 when he ran in the Republican Party for Catherine Cortez Masto's seat, an election that was 22 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:49,220 won by Adam Laxalt, who was defeated by Senator Cortez Masto by a very slim margin. 23 00:01:49,220 --> 00:01:53,160 And also Jim Marchant has been a perennial candidate throughout Nevada elections over 24 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:58,280 the past few years, but Jeff Gunter seems to be a new name in this race, and he has 25 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,080 raised a lot of money, most of that his own money, to his campaign. 26 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:08,320 And even in the latest poll from Kaplan Strategies, Gunter is actually leading Brown by one point. 27 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:13,040 Now bear in mind this poll was sponsored by the Gunter campaign, but two weeks ago there 28 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:19,260 was a poll from the Terrence Group sponsored by the NRSC, as well as Sam Brown, and it 29 00:02:19,260 --> 00:02:23,720 showed Sam Brown leading Gunter by 38 points. 30 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,540 But as we all know, the poll that really matters is the one on election day. 31 00:02:27,540 --> 00:02:32,160 So we have to see who wins this, because this is set to be a very close race in November 32 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:33,240 for the Senate seat. 33 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,560 So whoever wins this race is going to have to campaign really hard, just as well as Jackie 34 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:38,560 Rosen. 35 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:43,480 So from there we head to the Peace Garden state, the state of North Dakota. 36 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:48,280 So North Dakota has a very exciting election year this year, a lot of open seats, and both 37 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:52,600 of the primaries that we're talking about today are Republican primaries. 38 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,760 North Dakota is a very Republican state, and whoever wins these Republican primaries will 39 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,360 have the clear edge come November. 40 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,080 So let's start with the gubernatorial race. 41 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:07,160 Now the current governor of North Dakota is Governor Doug Burgum. 42 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,300 The name might sound familiar, he ran for president earlier this year, and also two 43 00:03:11,300 --> 00:03:16,880 years ago an amendment was passed by North Dakota voters to establish term limits for 44 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:22,440 governor, a lifetime limit of two four-year terms, and it only applies to people elected 45 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:23,740 after the amendment. 46 00:03:23,740 --> 00:03:28,080 And since Governor Burgum was elected before the amendment, he could have kept running, 47 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,300 however he is choosing to leave the governor's mansion. 48 00:03:31,300 --> 00:03:33,560 So an open seat is here. 49 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:39,880 There are two major candidates for this race, those being incumbent congressman Kelly Armstrong 50 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,400 and Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller. 51 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:48,440 So two very well-known statewide politicians are running for the race. 52 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:53,080 So as a result this is set to be a hectic race, as are many television ads for their 53 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:54,960 candidates and all that jazz. 54 00:03:54,960 --> 00:04:00,240 We don't seem to have any fundraising numbers for this race, but we do have some polls, 55 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:06,400 and in the most recent poll from WPA intelligence sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative, 56 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:11,200 Congressman Armstrong is leading Lieutenant Governor Miller by a pretty hefty margin, 57 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:12,200 38 points. 58 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,080 But as we all know, anything can happen. 59 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:20,600 So with Kelly Armstrong running for governor, that means his congressional seat is up for 60 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:21,600 grabs. 61 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:28,720 And this is also set to be a very hectic race too, because, well, his seat is the only one 62 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,000 in the state. 63 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:35,460 Yes, the entire state of North Dakota selects the congressional representative as it's an 64 00:04:35,460 --> 00:04:39,180 at-large district, due to the population being pretty small. 65 00:04:39,180 --> 00:04:41,620 And this race is a little bit more chaotic. 66 00:04:41,620 --> 00:04:47,720 There are four major candidates in this race, those being Farmer Alex Balazs, former state 67 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:53,740 representative Rick Becker, state public service commissioner Julie Fietercheck, and attorney 68 00:04:53,740 --> 00:04:58,280 and 2018 Miss America, as you heard that right, Cara Mundt. 69 00:04:58,280 --> 00:05:03,240 Now the fundraising numbers that we have here from the FEC showing Fietercheck and Becker 70 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:09,120 pretty close together, and as such the two of them are the top two candidates in recent 71 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:10,120 polls. 72 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,360 However, unlike the governor race, this one is a little bit close. 73 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:18,400 In the most recent poll from WPA Intelligence, sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative, 74 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,840 Fietercheck is leading Becker by seven points. 75 00:05:20,840 --> 00:05:25,760 However, a poll from just a couple weeks ago from DFM Research, sponsored by North Dakota 76 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:30,080 United, has Becker leading Fietercheck by three points. 77 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:34,000 So as we head into the home stretch here, those numbers might change a little bit here 78 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,240 and again, but it shows it's going to be a pretty close race. 79 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:42,640 And based on Armstrong's candidacy for governor, this could be a very important race because 80 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,440 whoever wins this election could go on to something higher. 81 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:50,080 Current Senator Kevin Kramer was the state's at-large house representative, so it could 82 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:54,440 be a springboard, or they could be just like Governor Bergemann run for president as well. 83 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:55,440 Who knows? 84 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:56,600 We'll have to wait and see. 85 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:02,800 And finally today, we head down to the Palmetto State, the state of South Carolina. 86 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,480 Now here, we're going to be talking about two house races, and both of them involve 87 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:12,680 incumbents, fighting for reelection, and both of them are Republican primaries. 88 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:17,200 The Republicans will have the edge come November in these two seats. 89 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,720 So first, appropriately, we'll head to the first congressional district. 90 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,160 And the incumbent representative for South Carolina's first congressional district is 91 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,100 Representative Nancy Mace. 92 00:06:27,100 --> 00:06:30,800 She has held the office since 2020, reelected two years ago. 93 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:36,240 She has been known by many to be a moderate, straying away from the Republican establishment 94 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,680 on some issues, but keeping up with them as well. 95 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:43,200 And even despite that, she does have the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. 96 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:49,680 However, she faces two primary challengers, those being former state cabinet member, Catherine 97 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:53,640 Templeton, and nonprofit executive, Bill Young. 98 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:59,120 Now Representative Mace has a real edge on fundraising here, as well as in polling data. 99 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:03,920 In the most recent poll from Emerson College, sponsored by The Hill, Mace is leading Templeton 100 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:05,320 by 25 points. 101 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,800 However, in the polls that were created for this race, Representative Mace does not have 102 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,880 a majority of the vote, and that's important, because in the state of South Carolina, you 103 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,280 have to receive a majority of the vote to win the primary. 104 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:20,480 If not, then a runoff election will take place. 105 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,340 In this case, it will take place on June 25th. 106 00:07:23,340 --> 00:07:26,320 And if that does happen, we will talk about it. 107 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:30,040 And now we head down to the fourth congressional district. 108 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:35,000 Now the incumbent representative for South Carolina's fourth congressional district is 109 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:36,560 Congressman William Timmons. 110 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,960 He was first elected in 2018, served in the state senate before that. 111 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,800 And Timmons claims to be a very staunch conservative. 112 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:48,300 However, his opponent believes he is not being conservative enough. 113 00:07:48,300 --> 00:07:52,080 His opponent in the election is state representative Adam Morgan. 114 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:56,240 And he's also been endorsed by fellow South Carolina representative and member of the 115 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,480 House Freedom Caucus, Ralph Norman. 116 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,760 However, Timmons has received the endorsement from former President Donald Trump, which, 117 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,360 according to who you may ask, could be the only endorsement that matters in a Republican 118 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:07,360 primary election. 119 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,480 Well, there aren't any polls in this race, but we do have fundraising data, and Congressman 120 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,260 Timmons seems to have a clear edge, according to the Federal Elections Commission. 121 00:08:16,260 --> 00:08:21,160 But this could be a good indicator to see if one of the most conservative districts 122 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,080 in the state is moving more to the right. 123 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:28,400 And as always, if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure 124 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:32,480 to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com. 125 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:36,020 And if you're willing to look at polls, be sure to check out 538.com. 126 00:08:36,020 --> 00:08:42,600 So those are five races that you'll want to look at on primary election night, June 11th. 127 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:48,340 And as always, I say, if you are a registered voter in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, or South 128 00:08:48,340 --> 00:08:53,200 Carolina, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 129 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:54,200 So please do. 130 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,960 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 131 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:01,360 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 132 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:05,640 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 133 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:27,720 Thank you all for listening, and I will see you all very soon. 134 00:09:35,640 --> 00:11:01,500 This episode was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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