1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:24,640 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:27,800 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,720 I hope you all are doing okay wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:37,560 So today we are discussing primary elections set to take place on Tuesday, June 4th. 5 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:44,760 And on that day, five states, that's correct, five, will be holding statewide primaries. 6 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:53,040 Those five states holding primaries are Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South 7 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,040 Dakota. 8 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:59,680 However, a large amount of these primaries are uncompetitive, so we are only talking 9 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,160 about three elections today altogether. 10 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,700 And coincidentally, they all come from the same state. 11 00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:12,640 So let's pack our bags and head over to the Garden State, the state of New Jersey. 12 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:18,200 So the Senate election in New Jersey is getting a lot of news, particularly due to its incumbent 13 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,920 Senator, Senator Bob Menendez. 14 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:26,160 He's been in the news a lot and he is currently indicted on a number of cases and as a result 15 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:31,760 is not running in the Democratic primary, although he has not ruled out an independent 16 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:32,760 bid. 17 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,400 We'll have to wait and see on that. 18 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:40,800 And the front runner for that race is Congressman from New Jersey's third congressional district, 19 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:42,360 Andy Kim. 20 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:46,920 And since he's running for that, he is not running for reelection for his congressional 21 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:47,920 seat. 22 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:49,360 And as a result, that seat is open. 23 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,080 Now, this is a heavily Democratic seat. 24 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:57,440 Actually, all three seats here in New Jersey are heavily Democratic and we're only discussing 25 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,360 Democratic primaries today. 26 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:03,020 So the winner of the Democratic primary will have an edge come November. 27 00:02:03,020 --> 00:02:08,120 And in the District 3 Democratic primary, there are two major candidates, those being 28 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:15,480 State Assembly Deputy Speaker, Herb Conaway and State Assembly Majority Whip, Carol Murphy. 29 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:20,680 Now, both candidates are in the New Jersey General Assembly and both of them are very 30 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:26,040 high up in Democratic leadership, which should make a very harsh fight between the two, harsh 31 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,440 politically speaking. 32 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:34,040 In terms of receipts, Herb Conaway seems to have an edge in fundraising, fundraising a 33 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,400 bit more than Carol Murphy has. 34 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:41,880 And there has been polling in this race, but the most recent poll was from April 26th, 35 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:47,720 a poll sponsored by the Super PAC, the Principled Veterans Fund, and it shows Conaway leading 36 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,440 Murphy 25% to 11%. 37 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:57,120 Although a poll from just a month prior, sponsored by the Murphy campaign, showed Conaway also 38 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:02,600 having a lead, but a very small one compared to the most recent poll, a lead of four points. 39 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,800 But as we know, polls can mean anything. 40 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,160 And the real poll that matters is the one on election day. 41 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:14,800 And judging by how Andy Kim will do in the Senate race, this could be a very good seat 42 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,880 for the Democrats and Democratic leadership. 43 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:22,600 Whoever holds this seat could very likely stay there a while in the House or maybe jump up 44 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:27,720 to higher office, kind of like what current representative from said district Andy Kim 45 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:28,720 is trying to do. 46 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:34,480 However, it's a different story in the other two districts we're talking about. 47 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:39,840 Both of them actually have an incumbent running against a primary challenger, and both are 48 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:40,920 pretty competitive. 49 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,760 So we'll head to New Jersey's eighth congressional district now. 50 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:49,200 The current representative from that district is Robert Menendez Jr. 51 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:53,360 Yes, he is the son of Senator Bob Menendez. 52 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:59,080 He was first elected to Congress just last election cycle, 2022, and he has wholeheartedly 53 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,720 stood by his father despite his legal troubles. 54 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,320 Well, his main challenger is trying to capitalize on that. 55 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:11,400 His main challenger is mayor of the city of Hoboken, Ravinder Bala. 56 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,880 And this race looks very competitive. 57 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:20,040 Both Menendez and Bala seem to be pretty 50-50 in terms of fundraising. 58 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,240 And not only that, polls show the race very close. 59 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:30,000 A poll from February, a sponsored by the Bala campaign, showed Menendez having a three-point 60 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:31,000 lead. 61 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:37,000 However, a poll from April, sponsored by Super PAC America's Promise, showed Bala with the 62 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,040 lead, this time by five points. 63 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,040 So this ought to be a very competitive race. 64 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:47,880 And finally, we go not that far down the road to New Jersey's ninth congressional district. 65 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:52,760 Now unlike the eighth congressional district, the incumbent representative has been in Congress 66 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:53,760 a while now. 67 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:59,160 Now, the current representative for New Jersey's ninth congressional district is Congressman 68 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:00,160 Bill Pascrell. 69 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:06,280 Now, Congressman Pascrell was first elected to Congress way back in 1996 and is actually 70 00:05:06,280 --> 00:05:11,400 one of the oldest current incumbent representatives to be running for re-election. 71 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:18,120 Now, he is facing off against mayor of Prospect Park, Mohamed Kirola. 72 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:24,580 Now, Mayor Kirola has criticized Congressman Pascrell's stance on the war in Gaza. 73 00:05:24,580 --> 00:05:27,560 And this district is mostly in the city of Paterson. 74 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:32,420 And Paterson actually has a very large Arab-American population. 75 00:05:32,420 --> 00:05:37,560 And as we know, the war in Gaza has become a very big topic in our nation's politics 76 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,120 over the last few months. 77 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:43,280 And that seems to be the basis for this primary election. 78 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:49,160 Now, there are no polls in this race and there isn't much fundraising numbers. 79 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:54,700 There haven't been any released by the Kirola campaign, or at least none brought on by the 80 00:05:54,700 --> 00:05:56,200 Federal Elections Commission. 81 00:05:56,200 --> 00:06:00,840 However, this is an important election to look at because it does show how much the 82 00:06:00,840 --> 00:06:07,880 war in Gaza has an effect on our nation's politics and our nation's elections for that 83 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:08,880 matter. 84 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:13,280 So those three primaries are races to watch on Tuesday, June 4th. 85 00:06:13,280 --> 00:06:18,600 And I want to thank the great folks at politicsone.com for providing the occupations of these candidates 86 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:25,020 as well as ballotpedia.com for providing fundraising numbers and other tidbits about elections. 87 00:06:25,020 --> 00:06:28,760 If you're wondering about an election in your community, check out those two websites. 88 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,840 And also, thank you to 538.com for supplying poll data. 89 00:06:33,840 --> 00:06:38,700 And I ask you all out there, if you are a registered voter, not just in New Jersey, 90 00:06:38,700 --> 00:06:44,040 but in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, or South Dakota, and you have a primary on June 4th, 91 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:48,640 I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 92 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:49,640 So please do. 93 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,480 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection. 94 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:57,520 If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash 95 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:02,440 across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 96 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:27,960 Thank you all for listening, and I will see you all very soon. 97 00:07:33,440 --> 00:08:57,760 This podcast was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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