1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:24,320 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection, 2 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,320 your election analysis for across the circus. 3 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,600 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:37,440 So today's program we are discussing the primaries set to occur on Tuesday, May 14th. 5 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:42,880 And unlike our last show where we had it kind of easy, only one state was holding primary 6 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:44,080 elections this week. 7 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,360 It's not one, not two, but three. 8 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:52,060 Yes, three states are holding primaries on Tuesday, May 14th. 9 00:00:52,060 --> 00:00:56,760 Those three states are Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. 10 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:02,320 Now despite three states having primary elections that day, we're only going to talk about two. 11 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:07,480 You see the state of Nebraska, the primaries aren't very competitive this year, but one 12 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,280 of those seats will likely be competitive in November. 13 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,560 That's the second congressional district seat, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to 14 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:15,560 it. 15 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,960 But today we're going to be talking about the primaries in Maryland and West Virginia. 16 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:23,680 Now I usually like to go alphabetically, but there's a lot more going on in Maryland than 17 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:28,360 West Virginia, because West Virginia we have two races to talk about and in Maryland we 18 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:29,360 have five. 19 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:33,640 A Senate seat, three congressional districts, and something we haven't done on our show 20 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,640 yet, a mayoral election. 21 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:40,920 Yes, so it's a first today on Driscoll's election dissection. 22 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,600 So with that, we'll head straight to the mountain state, the state of West Virginia. 23 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:51,080 Now West Virginia has become a very strong Republican stronghold in the last few years. 24 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,480 And despite that, they've had a Democratic senator for a while now, Joe Manchin. 25 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:59,320 However, Joe Manchin is not running for reelection this year. 26 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:04,560 And as a result, when he announced he wasn't running, the insiders immediately switched 27 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:09,800 their projection from lean Democratic to solid Republican. 28 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,880 That just goes to show you how much of an influence he had on the state. 29 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,800 Being a conservative Democrat, it's not going to be easy to find a candidate that can do 30 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:21,460 what Joe Manchin has done for the state of West Virginia and its Democratic and possible 31 00:02:21,460 --> 00:02:24,420 independent and maybe even moderate Republican voters. 32 00:02:24,420 --> 00:02:28,400 So with that, the Senate election is having its Republican primary. 33 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,920 There are seven candidates altogether, but there are only two that have the most attention 34 00:02:32,920 --> 00:02:33,920 right now. 35 00:02:33,920 --> 00:02:40,280 And those are current governor of the state, Jim Justice, and Congressman Alex Mooney. 36 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:45,760 Now Jim Justice actually announced he was running for the seat before Joe Manchin declined 37 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:46,760 reelection. 38 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,040 So in a way, he already had a real edge. 39 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,200 And him being a very popular governor, well, that helps too. 40 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:53,720 And it really has helped him in polling. 41 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:58,160 He holds a very comfortable lead over Congressman Mooney at the time. 42 00:02:58,160 --> 00:02:59,440 But Mooney's not giving up. 43 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,440 He's still raised a bunch of money and he's gearing toward the end, but it looks very 44 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,120 comfortable for Governor Justice at the time. 45 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,780 And speaking of Governor Justice, because he's running for Senate, he's not running 46 00:03:09,780 --> 00:03:10,780 for governor this year. 47 00:03:10,780 --> 00:03:16,480 Yes, just like Indiana last week, West Virginia holds its gubernatorial elections in presidential 48 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,880 election years. 49 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,240 That primary is a little more crowded. 50 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,740 For example, there are four major candidates in this race. 51 00:03:24,740 --> 00:03:31,120 And they are former state delegate Moore Capito, state attorney general Patrick Morrissey, 52 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:36,120 auto dealer Chris Miller, and state secretary of state Mac Warner. 53 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:40,980 So you have a few state politicians as well as Chris Miller, who actually has financed 54 00:03:40,980 --> 00:03:46,080 a lot of his own money toward his campaign and has gotten a lot of major TV ads and fundraising 55 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:47,080 endorsements. 56 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:51,680 And you really see a difference here in terms of backing the candidates. 57 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:56,360 For example, Moore Capito has a lot of endorsements from the state elite, including from his own 58 00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:00,040 mother, US Senator Shelley Moore Capito. 59 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,400 You have to get mom's endorsement when you're running for office, you know, otherwise, what's 60 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:04,400 the point? 61 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,680 But Patrick Morrissey has gotten a lot of endorsements from organizations. 62 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,360 And in a way that's helped him, just like Governor Justice, he has a pretty comfortable 63 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:12,360 lead. 64 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:16,520 Overall, he is leading Moore Capito by about 17 points. 65 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,320 But still, it's a four way race, so the votes could split here. 66 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:23,660 But it is a primary to look at because just like the governor race, the winner of these 67 00:04:23,660 --> 00:04:27,320 primaries will very likely win in November. 68 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:28,800 So be sure to look out for those. 69 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:34,360 And now, as we head a little down the road to the old line state, the state of Maryland, 70 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,040 well, we kind of have the opposite situation. 71 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:42,180 Now if you know anything about the mid Atlantic, you know that compared to West Virginia being 72 00:04:42,180 --> 00:04:47,160 a heavily conservative state, Maryland is a very heavily liberal state. 73 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:51,760 So all the primaries we're talking about today are all Democratic primaries, because in all 74 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:56,560 of these seats, the Democratic nominee will have a good chance of winning in November. 75 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,040 Now I say good, but not great chance. 76 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,540 And you'll see why when I talk about this first race. 77 00:05:01,540 --> 00:05:03,800 So we start with the Senate race. 78 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,800 Incumbent Senator Ben Cardin is retiring from the Senate. 79 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,880 And with his seat open, a lot of people decided to go out for it. 80 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:15,760 But despite that, there's only two major candidates in the Senate primary, those being Prince 81 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:21,720 George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Congressman David Trone. 82 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,080 And endorsements are kind of split down the line. 83 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:29,340 A lot of national Democratic politicians as well as statewide are endorsing really both 84 00:05:29,340 --> 00:05:30,960 candidates here. 85 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:36,080 And David Trone has been leading in most polls, but not by much, including in the most recent 86 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,080 poll, he's only leading Alsobrooks by three points. 87 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,560 So this is said to be a very close race. 88 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:46,220 But what's interesting is that in the Republican primary of this race, former governor of the 89 00:05:46,220 --> 00:05:48,520 state Larry Hogan is running. 90 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:53,800 And Larry Hogan has been a very popular governor of Maryland, despite being a Republican in 91 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,320 a very Democratic state. 92 00:05:55,320 --> 00:06:00,800 And as a result, all the analysts say that this race is on likely Democratic, not solid 93 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:01,920 or safe. 94 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:07,520 So the Democratic nominee will have an advantage, but not one that will guarantee them to win. 95 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,360 So they'll still have to do a little bit of campaigning. 96 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,640 And that should be an interesting race to watch in November. 97 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,960 So with that, we go to the congressional races. 98 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:15,960 We have three of them. 99 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,960 We're going to start with district three. 100 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,160 Incumbent Congressman John Sarbanes is retiring. 101 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:25,040 And to say that Maryland is a Democratic state is an understatement. 102 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:29,900 In the Democratic primary for this election, there are 22 candidates. 103 00:06:29,900 --> 00:06:31,480 You heard that right. 104 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:32,480 22. 105 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:33,480 Yes. 106 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,800 22 Democrats have filed to run and will be on the ballot. 107 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:39,360 That's why this is a race to look at. 108 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:46,560 Well, despite that, there are four major candidates, those being telecom executive Juan Dominguez, 109 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:52,760 retired police officer Harry Dunn, state Senator Sarah Elfrith, and state delegate Mike Rogers. 110 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:58,360 Now, there isn't a lot of polls for the race here, but Harry Dunn has done a lot of fundraising 111 00:06:58,360 --> 00:06:59,640 compared to the other candidates. 112 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,720 Well, he's raised about four and a half million dollars. 113 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:04,600 This is according to official receipts. 114 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,080 So in a way that gives him an edge. 115 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:11,560 But with such a big field, it's really hard to really find a front runner with so many 116 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:12,560 candidates. 117 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:13,560 So that should be fun. 118 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,120 And now we go to district five. 119 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:19,640 Now district five isn't usually in the news, partly because of its incumbent. 120 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,400 The incumbent congressman is Steny Hoyer. 121 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:28,600 He has been in the US House of Representatives since 1981 and at one time was House Democratic 122 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,440 leader under Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 123 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,120 Well, he's no longer on the leadership team, but he's still in Congress, still working 124 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:35,120 his constituents. 125 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:41,440 Now, in this year's primary, though, Steny Hoyer is facing against three challengers, 126 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,000 which is usually more than he usually would. 127 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:50,280 And those challengers are health care executive Quincy Barabee, Prince George's County Environmental 128 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:55,000 Director Andrea Kroons, and administrative assistant Michaela Wilkes. 129 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,720 Now what's interesting is that Steny Hoyer has actually faced off against Michaela Wilkes 130 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:04,040 in 2022 and 2020 in the Democratic primary and soundly defeated her both times. 131 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,120 However, now he doesn't have to just worry about Michaela Wilkes. 132 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,800 He also has to worry about two more candidates. 133 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:15,040 Now it's not safe to say if Steny Hoyer is in trouble or not, but for a longtime congressman 134 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:19,480 to face more challenges than usual means he may have to do a little more campaigning this 135 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:20,800 year than he usually would. 136 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:21,800 So there you go. 137 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:26,200 And finally, in the congressional realm of things, we go to district six, the seat of 138 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,280 David Trone, whom we just mentioned earlier. 139 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,640 Yes, he's running for Senate and therefore is not running for reelection. 140 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,360 And this is also a crowded primary, but not like district three. 141 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,840 There are 16 candidates in this race. 142 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,320 Still a lot, but not as much as 22 candidates. 143 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:49,720 And there are three major candidates in this race, those being mayor of Hagerstown Takesha 144 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:56,840 Martinez, former U.S. commerce official April MacLean Delaney, and state delegate Joe Vogel. 145 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:01,440 Now all of them seem to have their own way around the district, Vogel being a delegate 146 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:07,120 and MacLean Delaney being the wife of a former congressman from this district, John Delaney. 147 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,920 You may remember he ran for president back in 2020. 148 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,680 Now there's only been one poll in this race and it was all the way back in November and 149 00:09:13,680 --> 00:09:18,100 it showed that nearly 80% of voters are, well, undecided. 150 00:09:18,100 --> 00:09:22,640 But April MacLean Delaney has fundraised a lot more than the other candidates and partly 151 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:26,120 with the name recognition, you know, her husband being a former congressman, that could help 152 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:27,120 her too. 153 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:28,960 But still it seems to be a close race. 154 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:36,160 And also a big thank you to websites, politicsone.com for listing the occupations of all the candidates 155 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,200 as well as ballotpedia.com for showing all the battleground primaries. 156 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,240 I highly suggest you look at both websites for election details. 157 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:49,400 I say that now because unfortunately, politicsone.com doesn't really talk about mayoral races that 158 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,600 much so I had to do my own research for this. 159 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,640 So this is a battleground election according to Ballotpedia and like I said at the top of 160 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,160 the show, it's something we've never done. 161 00:09:58,160 --> 00:09:59,880 It's a mayoral race. 162 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:03,000 The Democratic primary for the mayor of Baltimore. 163 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,220 Yes, Maryland's biggest city. 164 00:10:05,220 --> 00:10:08,940 Now the city of Baltimore has a partisan election. 165 00:10:08,940 --> 00:10:14,560 The parties will choose a nominee and all the parties' nominees face off in the November 166 00:10:14,560 --> 00:10:15,800 election. 167 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:21,360 And Baltimore being one of the most democratic cities in the nation, not just in the state, 168 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:27,000 in the nation, the winner of this Democratic primary will very likely win in November. 169 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,800 And Baltimore has had a lot going on in the past couple of years. 170 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,640 And Baltimore has been in the news lately due to the tragic collapse of the Francis 171 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:36,120 Scott Key Bridge. 172 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:41,540 So some say this election could matter more than usual, try to find someone who can unite 173 00:10:41,540 --> 00:10:43,520 the city after such a terrible incident. 174 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,000 Well, the current mayor of Baltimore is Brandon Scott. 175 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,920 He was elected in 2020 and is running for reelection this year. 176 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:55,080 And he faces numerous challenges, but there are only two major challenges, those being 177 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:59,760 former mayor of the city, Sheila Dixon, and businessman Robert Wallace. 178 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:04,640 Now it should be known that Robert Wallace actually ran in the November 2020 Baltimore 179 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,520 election as an independent and lost to Brandon Scott. 180 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:11,440 But this year he's running in the Democratic primary, interestingly enough. 181 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:16,080 Now Brandon Scott has gotten a lot of good words lately due to his running of the city, 182 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:21,400 as well as his response to the unfortunate events regarding the bridge collapse. 183 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:25,540 And that has helped him in polling because before the bridge collapse, Sheila Dixon 184 00:11:25,540 --> 00:11:29,680 was actually leading in the polls, but now Brandon Scott is leading those polls. 185 00:11:29,680 --> 00:11:31,680 Still pretty close margin between the two. 186 00:11:31,680 --> 00:11:36,320 And plus, Sheila Dixon having name recognition, being a former mayor, as well as running in 187 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:41,540 the election in 2016 and 2020, voters still know about her and probably still has a bunch 188 00:11:41,540 --> 00:11:42,800 of support throughout the city. 189 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,580 So that should be one to look at. 190 00:11:44,580 --> 00:11:45,960 It's nice for a change of scenery. 191 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,520 It's nice to talk about a local election for once. 192 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,960 Kind of shows you what goes on in our cities and everything. 193 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,600 I think it's just as important as the elections for governor, senator, and US House, to be 194 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:56,600 honest with you. 195 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:02,120 So those are the primaries to watch on Tuesday, May 14th. 196 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:07,000 And I say to you all out there, if you are a registered voter in the states of Maryland, 197 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:13,380 Nebraska, or West Virginia, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 198 00:12:13,380 --> 00:12:15,000 So please do. 199 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,500 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 200 00:12:17,500 --> 00:12:22,240 If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across 201 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:26,440 the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 202 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:27,440 Thank you all for listening. 203 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:52,480 I'll see you all very soon. 204 00:12:58,440 --> 00:14:22,240 This show was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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