1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,920 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection, 2 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,080 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,440 I hope you're all doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:36,880 So on our last show we looked at the congressional race for New York's third congressional district, 5 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:42,540 the special election, and the results came in and former representative Tom Swazi won 6 00:00:42,540 --> 00:00:44,120 his old job back. 7 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:45,120 Yes, Swazi won. 8 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:46,320 It was a tight race. 9 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,720 He won both counties in terms of votes, but it was still pretty close. 10 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:56,120 He won with about 53.7% compared to Mazie Pilip's 46-ish percent. 11 00:00:56,120 --> 00:01:03,200 And Mazie Pilip has not announced that she will be running in the general election primary 12 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,640 this year later on, but she has expressed interest in it. 13 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,820 So we might be seeing a rematch here, which could tip the scales again. 14 00:01:09,820 --> 00:01:10,820 You never know. 15 00:01:10,820 --> 00:01:18,480 So Tuesday, March the 5th is Super Tuesday, a known date on the presidential nominating 16 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:19,480 calendar. 17 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:24,600 So numerous states will be holding both Republican and Democratic primaries. 18 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:26,320 Some states are doing one or the other. 19 00:01:26,320 --> 00:01:29,480 This is according to 2702win.com. 20 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:35,280 Alaska is holding its Republican caucus and Iowa is holding its Democratic caucus, although 21 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:40,360 Republicans already did that earlier in the month, and a caucus as well in American Samoa 22 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,100 on the Democratic side. 23 00:01:42,100 --> 00:01:46,640 But many states are holding both Republican primaries and Democratic primaries on that 24 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:47,640 date. 25 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:52,960 Those states being Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, 26 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,640 North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. 27 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:01,940 All those states are holding a presidential nominating primary, and we could see this 28 00:02:01,940 --> 00:02:08,720 as the potential last straw for both candidates Nikki Haley and Dean Phillips in their challenges 29 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:14,520 to President Joe Biden for Dean Phillips and former President Trump for Nikki Haley. 30 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:15,520 But we'll see. 31 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,320 Anything can happen, although it seems very likely what will. 32 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:24,040 However, despite that, there are five states on that list that are also holding their primary 33 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,760 elections for their congressional and statewide seats. 34 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:34,080 Those five states being Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas. 35 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:40,200 So we're going to do a quick roundup of those five states and what's going on there on the 36 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:41,500 primary ballot. 37 00:02:41,500 --> 00:02:44,640 So Arkansas, not much going on there. 38 00:02:44,640 --> 00:02:49,040 No Senate election, no governor election, just the four congressional seats they have 39 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,840 and all four incumbents are running for reelection. 40 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,800 Only one of them is facing a primary challenger, but even then there's not many polls on that, 41 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,000 which means it's kind of not much of a competitive race. 42 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,080 So apologies to our friends in Arkansas. 43 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:06,420 We're sorry you won't be having anything competitive on the ballot this March. 44 00:03:06,420 --> 00:03:09,920 Also Texas is not really much else going on there. 45 00:03:09,920 --> 00:03:13,960 There are a few retirements in Congress and there are a few congressional seats that are 46 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:20,520 on the lean side of the Cook voting index, but nothing really of a toss up. 47 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:25,000 Senate primary is worth a look, although it seems to be very evident that Colin Allred, 48 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,240 representative, incumbent representative, will be winning the Democratic primary and 49 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,320 facing off against Senator Ted Cruz in November. 50 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:33,800 That race is worth a look. 51 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,680 Ted Cruz has the advantage, but you know, a lot could happen between March and November. 52 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:42,040 North Carolina is known to be a very swingy state, if you will. 53 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,200 They usually tip the scales very often. 54 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,400 They have an incumbent governor who's Democrat, Roy Cooper. 55 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,880 He is term limited though, so he can't run for reelection this year. 56 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:55,240 The Democratic primary and Republican primary have major frontrunners who seem very likely 57 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:57,800 to win their respective primaries. 58 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,440 The general election in November will be worth a look. 59 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,040 The primaries, not so much. 60 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,320 Alabama is, there's something interesting going on in Alabama actually that I like to 61 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:09,320 share. 62 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:15,320 In Alabama, their state congressional map had to be redrawn as the Supreme Court believed 63 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,360 that it violated the Voting Rights Act. 64 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:24,200 So as a result, their second congressional district is now a minority majority district. 65 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,840 And as a result, many Democrats are filing for that seat as they have a chance to have 66 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:32,280 another Democratic representative in the state. 67 00:04:32,280 --> 00:04:37,080 Meanwhile, the current district two congressman Barry Moore knows that it will be a tough 68 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:42,040 reelection ahead, so he's decided not to run for his old seat, but instead is challenging 69 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:46,360 incumbent representative Jerry Carle in the first congressional seat. 70 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:51,960 And it's kind of rare to see two congressional incumbents facing off in a primary election 71 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,760 that's not a year right after a census. 72 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,360 So that's something that's worth a look. 73 00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:02,200 Well, we all know according to the Cook PVI, whoever wins that primary will win in November. 74 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:08,100 But our main focus today involves probably one of the most battleground elections coming 75 00:05:08,100 --> 00:05:13,720 up and it's one of the most competitive elections that this state has had in about 30 years. 76 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:18,680 We're heading to the Golden State, the state of California, also my home state. 77 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,420 So there is an open seat for the US Senate. 78 00:05:21,420 --> 00:05:26,360 So Diane Feinstein held on to this seat for nearly 30 years. 79 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:30,780 And in February of 2023, she announced that she would not be running for reelection. 80 00:05:30,780 --> 00:05:33,560 As a result, many people came into the race. 81 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:40,360 Sadly, in September, Senator Feinstein passed away and Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Labor 82 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,280 President Lafonza Butler to the seat. 83 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:49,280 And she announced just a few days after her appointment that she would not run for reelection. 84 00:05:49,280 --> 00:05:57,940 She intends to, I guess, keep the seat warm until a new senator is elected, if you will. 85 00:05:57,940 --> 00:06:02,960 So California has an open primary, a top two primary, if you will. 86 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,680 That means all of the candidates appear on the ballot. 87 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,920 All of them, Republicans, Democrats, independents, third parties, whatever. 88 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,040 They all appear on one ballot and the voter votes for one person. 89 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:16,160 And you're probably thinking, oh, so it's like Louisiana, where if there's a majority 90 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:20,480 that person wins, if not, then the two candidates with the most move on to the general, right? 91 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:21,480 Wrong. 92 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:26,160 You see, in a top two primary, it's different from a Louisiana primary because even if the 93 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:32,200 top vote getter gets a majority, then the two vote getters still face off in a general 94 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:33,780 election in November. 95 00:06:33,780 --> 00:06:37,820 Some say that's kind of unfair because a candidate already wins a majority and could potentially 96 00:06:37,820 --> 00:06:39,820 lose the general election. 97 00:06:39,820 --> 00:06:43,000 But you know, it's up to the states to decide that. 98 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,720 At least every voter gets to vote in the primary, you know. 99 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,460 Some many states don't do that. 100 00:06:47,460 --> 00:06:52,200 So there are four major candidates in this race. 101 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:57,600 Three of them are Democrats and they're all members of the U.S. House of Representatives, 102 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:02,000 those being Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee. 103 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:06,880 Meanwhile, there is a Republican candidate throughout the mix, former baseball player 104 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:08,200 Steve Garvey. 105 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:14,560 So those four have the most name recognition and it's very likely that two of those people 106 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,720 will be the two candidates in November. 107 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:23,740 And recent polls have showed that it's actually a pretty close race for the second spot. 108 00:07:23,740 --> 00:07:25,760 So this is the most recent poll. 109 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:31,360 It's from Emerson College and Adam Schiff is shown with a 28% lead. 110 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:38,440 Steve Garvey has 22% and Katie Porter has 16%, a Barbara Lee with 9%, rounding it out. 111 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:44,240 Now there is a margin of error of 3.1 points, which isn't that much in this second place 112 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:45,240 field. 113 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:50,600 A poll just a couple weeks before that from the University of Southern California and 114 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:57,840 Dornsife showed Schiff leading with 25% instead of 28% and Porter and Garvey literally neck 115 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,280 and neck with 15%. 116 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:07,480 So this does pose to be somewhat of a close race because, you know, both Porter and Garvey 117 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,040 of course want that spot. 118 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,680 But you know, it does pose a bit of an interesting couple of dilemmas. 119 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:19,720 For one thing, it could leave Garvey out completely and there'll be two Democratic candidates 120 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:20,720 on the final ballot. 121 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,960 You know, I'm sure he doesn't want that. 122 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:27,840 On the other hand, Katie Porter thinks she can take on Adam Schiff and wants Garvey out. 123 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,640 But the Garvey campaign seems to be taking advantage of this as they have been going 124 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,960 full frontal on attack ads against Katie Porter. 125 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,720 Many of them have been seen on California television throughout the last couple of weeks, 126 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,880 as well as hate ads for Steve Garvey. 127 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,980 So it's a very bitter campaign. 128 00:08:43,980 --> 00:08:50,360 But despite that, this is a solid Democratic race, according to many race indexes. 129 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:54,920 Well, I mean, it's California we're talking about here. 130 00:08:54,920 --> 00:09:00,080 And Adam Schiff seems to have the advantage leading in the polls. 131 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,960 But you know, it would be probably harder for him to face another Democrat in Katie 132 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:08,980 Porter and probably easy enough to face Steve Garvey in the general. 133 00:09:08,980 --> 00:09:13,720 It does seem to be very important election here in California, because whoever wins this 134 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,960 election could go on to something. 135 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:19,600 They could hang on to the seat for a while, just like Dianne Feinstein did holding the 136 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,960 seat for nearly 30 years, or possibly moving up to something else. 137 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:29,160 As we all know, another former Senator Kamala Harris is now currently the vice president 138 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:30,560 of the United States. 139 00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:35,520 So there's major implications about possibly the future of US politics on the line here. 140 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,500 So it's an interesting race to look at. 141 00:09:37,500 --> 00:09:43,760 And as always, I would like to point out if you are a registered voter in Alabama, Arkansas, 142 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:49,000 California, North Carolina, Texas, or the other states that we mentioned earlier with 143 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:54,360 presidential contests, I do not care who you vote for. 144 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:55,800 But I do care that you vote. 145 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:56,800 So please do. 146 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,360 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. 147 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:04,180 If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash Across 148 00:10:04,180 --> 00:10:08,800 the Circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting forum you like. 149 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:34,520 Thank you all for listening, and I'll see you all very soon. 150 00:10:39,800 --> 00:12:04,240 "Driscoll's Election Dissection" was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. 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