1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,720 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:27,000 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,160 I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. 4 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,480 I hope you've had a good start to the year. 5 00:00:32,480 --> 00:00:34,920 I hope you're having a great February. 6 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,920 On our last program, we kind of did a look ahead as to what's coming up. 7 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,560 And if you've been following the presidential primaries, which as you may have heard in 8 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:47,900 our last show, we're not going to go into big detail on on this program, but you see 9 00:00:47,900 --> 00:00:51,040 things are going as anticipated. 10 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:56,800 Donald Trump is cruising toward election victory in the Republican side and incumbent President 11 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,640 Joe Biden is cruising on the Democratic side. 12 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,320 So yeah, just as many pundits expected. 13 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:07,040 But you know, the Super Tuesday is coming up and that should be a really fascinating 14 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:08,720 day in the primary calendar. 15 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:14,200 It could be the final straw for Nikki Haley's campaign or Dean Phillips's campaign, for 16 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,180 all we know in their primaries respectively. 17 00:01:17,180 --> 00:01:18,800 But we'll just have to wait and see. 18 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:26,720 However, on today's show, the focus is the first special election in the U.S. House of 19 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,740 Representatives for the 2024 calendar year. 20 00:01:30,740 --> 00:01:36,580 And as you know, I love to talk special elections because it really shows you a snapshot of 21 00:01:36,580 --> 00:01:40,500 what goes on in certain areas of this great country. 22 00:01:40,500 --> 00:01:41,880 That's why I enjoy it. 23 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:48,240 So for this, we are heading to the Empire State, the state of New York, specifically 24 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,040 New York's third congressional district. 25 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:58,360 Now, this district represents a good chunk of New York City, mostly Queens, and also 26 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,880 part of Long Island into northern Nassau County. 27 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:09,140 And according to an article from Forbes, this is actually the wealthiest congressional district 28 00:02:09,140 --> 00:02:13,240 in the state of New York and the fourth wealthiest in the country. 29 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:14,680 Bet you didn't know that. 30 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:19,880 So there's a lot going into this special election and it's being looked at a lot by many election 31 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:26,640 pundits and experts and really political fans at large on both sides of the aisle. 32 00:02:26,640 --> 00:02:34,160 Not only because this is actually one of the closest districts in terms of Republicans 33 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:35,700 and Democrats. 34 00:02:35,700 --> 00:02:40,180 According to the Cook BVI, the Democrats have an advantage of two points. 35 00:02:40,180 --> 00:02:42,560 So this election could go either way. 36 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,920 But people are also looking at this election for another reason. 37 00:02:45,920 --> 00:02:50,840 And that's because this district has gotten a lot of attention over the last calendar 38 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:56,120 year and that can mainly be attributed to the person who represented the district for 39 00:02:56,120 --> 00:03:00,460 most of that year, a gentleman named George Santos. 40 00:03:00,460 --> 00:03:03,120 You may have heard of him. 41 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:10,120 Well to bring a long, long story short, George Santos was expelled from the US House of Representatives 42 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:16,280 on December 1st, 2023, becoming the first person to have that distinction in nearly 43 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:17,440 20 years. 44 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,760 So the seat is vacant and as a result a special election has been called. 45 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,800 So you're probably thinking, oh well if it's a special election so the parties will each 46 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:29,040 have a primary to decide their nominees, right? 47 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:30,040 Wrong. 48 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,160 You see in the state of New York they do things a little different. 49 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,760 In the state of New York, in a special election for the US House of Representatives and for 50 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:44,640 other offices as well, the party officials of the counties in which the district is in 51 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,000 come together and decide on a nominee. 52 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,360 So kind of an old school convention type thing. 53 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,560 You know, kind of similar to the Utah Convention model which you may remember from one of our 54 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,920 episodes back in September, but it's a little different. 55 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,660 It's really the elite of the party within the county. 56 00:04:01,660 --> 00:04:07,240 So the two counties came together, this being Queens County and Nassau County, party officials 57 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,000 from both parties came together to decide on a nominee. 58 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,520 The Democrats have chosen Tom Swasey. 59 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:19,520 Now for those who are listening, who live in New York's 3rd congressional district, 60 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,360 first of all, hi. 61 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,320 And second, the name Tom Swasey might sound familiar. 62 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:30,080 Well that's because Tom Swasey actually used to be New York's 3rd district representative. 63 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:36,920 He was elected to the seat in 2016 and re-elected in 2018 and 2020, decided not to run for re-election 64 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:43,200 in 2022, and decided to run in the Democratic primary for governor instead, which he lost 65 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,140 to Kathy Hochul. 66 00:04:45,140 --> 00:04:51,160 So he's vying for his old job back, and the Democrats of both Nassau County and Queens 67 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:56,000 County think with a recognizable name, they might have a good chance. 68 00:04:56,000 --> 00:05:01,280 Well the Republicans know that this is a very, very close district, and they want to elect 69 00:05:01,280 --> 00:05:05,080 one of their strongest members throughout the community. 70 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,120 And they have chosen on Mazzee Pillip. 71 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:13,440 Mazzee Pillip is currently a legislator in the Nassau County Legislature. 72 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:17,080 She also served in the Israeli Defense Forces in her youth. 73 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:21,360 She was elected to the Nassau County Legislature in 2022. 74 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:27,000 And despite running as a Republican and being elected as a Republican to the Nassau County 75 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:34,200 Legislature, she has been a registered Democrat since 2012, which is rather interesting. 76 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:39,240 However, the Republican Party of Nassau County and the Republican Party of Queens County 77 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,320 are going full force with her. 78 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:46,840 Now they know she's a current legislator, a current elected official of their party, 79 00:05:46,840 --> 00:05:53,120 and they know that in an election like this, a close election, they need someone like that, 80 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,200 just like Tom Swazee, a recognizable name that voters would know. 81 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:03,740 And as expected, this election has been very close in polls so far. 82 00:06:03,740 --> 00:06:09,240 The most recent poll we have here has Tom Swazee leading by four points. 83 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:14,320 However, the margin of error in that poll is 4.2%. 84 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,640 So literally this election is a coin flip. 85 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:23,280 Both candidates have well-known endorsements, and a lot of analysts say this is going to 86 00:06:23,280 --> 00:06:27,000 be very competitive and very expensive. 87 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:32,080 Both candidates have already raised millions of dollars so far. 88 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:39,360 And nearly all the rating forecasts, Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, all 89 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,000 that stuff, nearly all of them have this race as a toss-up. 90 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:49,560 And plus, with the House majority very slim as it is, this truly is make or break for 91 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:50,560 both parties. 92 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:55,480 And it could be a bellwether as to what happens for the rest of the year. 93 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:56,480 We don't know. 94 00:06:56,480 --> 00:07:00,380 With a district this close together in Republicans and Democrats, it could show where the country 95 00:07:00,380 --> 00:07:01,600 may be headed. 96 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,080 Election will take place on February the 13th. 97 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:11,000 And lastly, if you are a registered voter in New York's third congressional district, 98 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:15,440 I truly don't care who you vote for. 99 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,540 But I do care that you vote. 100 00:07:17,540 --> 00:07:18,540 So please do. 101 00:07:18,540 --> 00:07:21,520 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection. 102 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:26,740 If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across 103 00:07:26,740 --> 00:07:31,180 the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. 104 00:07:31,180 --> 00:07:32,180 Thank you all for listening. 105 00:07:32,180 --> 00:08:01,960 I'll see you all very soon. 106 00:08:02,960 --> 00:09:27,240 Driscoll's Election Dissection was brought you by Algid Productions LLC. 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