Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection,
your election analysis for Across the Circus.
I hope you're all doing well today, wherever you are.
So it is Election Day coming up here in the United States, November 7th to be exact, which
is basically Christmas Day for election junkies like myself, even in a year that ends with
an odd number.
Because there's still stuff to look at, interesting races across the country, some not interesting
races as well that are happening on the 7th, and we're going to get to some important ones
in just a bit.
But before we do that, let's talk about what we talked about on our last show.
We looked at the Louisiana gubernatorial election and that occurred on October the 14th.
And Jeff Landry, Louisiana Attorney General and Republican frontrunner, won the election
outright.
He got a majority, just over 51% of the state vote, and that's enough where he gets to take
the rest of the month off.
There will be no runoff election, as I somewhat thought would happen, but you know, this is
election dissection, not election prediction.
So you know, that shows my strong suit right there.
So yeah, slight majority, but just enough to win the election.
It's the first time that a Louisiana governor election has happened without a runoff since
2011.
And I want to point out something I did add, it's kind of election related, but not really.
It's funny how when I taped that episode, Steve Scalise, Republican congressman from
Louisiana was in line to become Speaker of the House.
Now that was why I added, as I taped this show, before that statement, because I didn't
think something was going to happen in between then, I thought it was going to happen, but
sure enough after that, more and more people went for the speakership and lost like he
did.
And a Republican congressman from Louisiana did get it.
So I guess we were kind of right.
Mike Johnson, who is now the current Speaker of the House, who, and you know what, I'll
say it again, this is election dissection, not election prediction.
So yeah, if I predict something, even if it's not really a prediction, just don't go for
it.
It's probably not going to happen.
Anyway, moving on.
November 7th, as mentioned at the top of the show, is election day in the United States,
and two states are holding gubernatorial elections, and both of them are very interesting in their
own ways.
So we're going to talk about those.
First we head to Kentucky, in what should be the closest race on the 7th.
The incumbent governor of Kentucky is Democrat Andy Beshear, and he was elected in 2019 by
a very slim margin, and believe it or not, as a Democrat, in the state of Kentucky, which
as we know is a pretty red state, he's actually very popular.
He's the most popular Democratic governor in the country, according to Morning Consult,
and he has pretty moderate views that I guess help him with the state electorate.
That doesn't say he doesn't have a strong challenger in this election.
His opponent is attorney general Daniel Cameron, who ironically, Andy Beshear was the attorney
general of Kentucky before being elected governor, and now Daniel Cameron, the current attorney
general, is going for that job too.
I guess forget about lieutenant governor.
If you want to be governor of Kentucky, become attorney general first.
So Daniel Cameron won the primary, a very crowded one for that matter, back in May.
Daniel Cameron has the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, along with Republican
members of the state legislature and US Congress.
Meanwhile, Andy Beshear has some other endorsements from the Democratic electorate of the state,
many county sheriffs, state legislators, and interestingly enough, rapper and actor Jack
Harlow had a rally in Kentucky recently and asked his fans to vote for Andy Beshear.
You know, Jack Harlow is originally from Louisville, Kentucky.
I didn't know that until I did my research.
Now polls have been pretty close, but there have been polls that have been pretty far.
The most recent poll I could find is from Emerson College, and it has the race in a
dead heat, both tied at 47%.
Meanwhile, another poll back from October by Garen Hart Yang, it says here, had Andy
Beshear leading by eight points.
Meanwhile, a Republican-led poll by Coefficient has Andy Beshear leading by only two points,
well within the margin of error.
So it's going to be close, but you know, all of the political reports do have it at either
tilt Democrat or lean Democrat.
So there is a good chance that Andy Beshear will keep his seat, but there's also a significant
chance that Daniel Cameron can flip this seat.
And Daniel Cameron will make history if elected, he'll be Kentucky's first ever African American
governor.
That's the election that people are really going to be looking at.
Another one they're going to be looking at is the other gubernatorial election on the
docket in the state of Mississippi.
Now Mississippi is a much more Republican state than Kentucky in terms of voters and
indexes and things.
But that doesn't say this one isn't all finished up yet.
Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2019, is running for reelection.
And unlike Andy Beshear, he is relatively unpopular amongst the voters and amongst his party.
Although there was word he would receive a significant primary challenge back in August,
he did not and found his way into the Republican nomination.
Now the Democratic primary was not very eventful.
Only one candidate ran.
That's one of the only state executive offices that's currently held by a Democrat, I believe,
if not the only one.
And that's the Democratic nominee is Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.
And yes, he is related to Elvis, before you ask.
So Brandon Presley is the Democrat running in Mississippi, which may sound like a death
sentence depending on who you ask, but he's not out of it yet.
He does have moderate views on many issues.
He's received endorsements from newspapers and organizations throughout the state, a
few well-known Democratic politicians throughout the state as well as outside the state.
And he was leading a poll back in January.
However, since then, Tate Reeves has eclipsed that he's been polling well in almost every
other poll since, although one of the last polls was a democratically led poll by public
policy polling, which had him leading Brandon Presley, but only by one point.
Of course, it's a democratically led poll, so it could have been tilted toward Presley's
favor.
But despite that, a lot of people are saying this might be a lot closer to than expected,
although all the indexes do have it at either lean or safe Republican.
Unlike Daniel Cameron's chances of winning Kentucky, Brandon Presley's chances of winning
Mississippi are a bit slimmer.
But it's still one to look at because, you know, this election does have a new rule compared
to Mississippi's elections in the past.
You see, back in the 1890 Constitution, and I'm seeing this on my computer here, in order
for a candidate to win the governor's office, they needed not only a majority of the voters,
but a majority of voters in a majority of state house districts.
And that was basically put in there to keep from African American voters from really having
a say in elections.
But that policy was taken out in 2020, when the voters decided to put a referendum on
the ballot and said, you know, it's outdated, very much so, and it doesn't need to be used
anymore.
So they took it out.
And now whoever wins a majority of the vote wins.
If not, there's a runoff, but there's only two candidates here, so that won't happen.
So if that rule in place, it could help Brandon Presley in a way.
But depending on who votes, it could help Tate Reeves as well.
And there are four states that are having state legislature elections, not just special
elections, but ones that are regularly scheduled, those being the aforementioned Mississippi,
as well as Louisiana, New Jersey and Virginia.
Now, a lot of these aren't really looked at, as many of them are safe for their respective
parties.
For example, Louisiana and Mississippi are very likely going to keep Republican control
of their state legislatures.
New Jersey Democrats are likely going to keep their control of the state legislature there.
In Virginia, however, is where it gets interesting.
Now, Virginia, the state Senate has a Democratic majority, 22 to 18.
So pretty slim, although election indexes say it does lean toward the Democrats.
The House of Delegates, however, has a Republican majority, 52 to 48.
And according to the index 270 to win, the Democrats are likely going to flip that.
All the seats are up for grabs and based on polls and things, that's how it looks.
But this is a opportunity that the Republicans really want, because if they get it, then
with a Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, they'll have complete control of the state
legislature.
So they're going to be on the ground going for it.
But Virginia has gotten more blue over the past few years.
Joe Biden won in 2020.
So it's really something to look at to see how the state of Virginia sways.
And it could be a bellwether on how the country will sway in the 2024 presidential election.
And finally, one more thing we'll be talking about is a referendum in the state of Ohio.
This vote is issue one on the Ohio ballot.
It's officially titled, quote, the right to reproductive freedom with protections for
health and safety.
This measure, if passed, will codify reproductive rights in Ohio's state constitution, restoring
abortion access throughout the state.
Because throughout the last couple of years, there's been bans on abortion by the state
governor and legislature.
Then a judge will pause the ban and then the ban will go back again and then it'll be paused
again and it was just a flip flop.
So the people of the state came together to put this referendum on the ballot.
And that's one that people are going to be looking a lot for certain because, you know,
ever since the Supreme Court ruling that overturned the original Roe v. Wade ruling, states throughout
the country have been voting on the right to reproductive access and many red states
have had votes to completely ban it and voters will come and not vote for it.
And this could be another one of those times as polls show that more people are leaning
toward voting yes on this measure than no.
But it's still very close.
So it could be a chance for the anti-abortion movement to actually win a referendum.
Those four elections I talked about are ones that are going to be looked at the most by
political analysts and things.
And with a year until the next presidential election, it could really show how the country
is thinking and which way they're probably going to be going a year from now.
So it's important to look at stuff like that because you really never know what can happen.
And lastly, as always I say, if you are a registered voter in the state of Kentucky,
Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio, or anywhere else in the country that's having an election,
as there are many cities that are having mayoral elections and city council elections and
local referendums and things, if you live anywhere that's having an election on November
7th, I don't care who or what you vote for, but I do care that you vote.
So please do.
And before I go, there's one last thing I want to add.
We are currently in the month of November, and ever since I was in high school I've participated
in No Shave November, a time where I put down my razor and let my beard grow out freely
for the world to see.
And I realized over the years it's less about growing your hair out and more about raising
awareness of health for men and women.
So I have a fundraising page, which I have the link inside the description of this show
on No Shave November, and all money that's donated will be given to Fight CRC, which
is a non-profit organization that is fighting every day to raise awareness and hopefully
find a cure for colorectal cancer.
So if you'd like to help out, go ahead and click that link down there and give what you
can and put your razor down and let your hair grow freely.
Well, that's all for this episode.
Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection.
If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across
the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting forum you'd like.
Thank you all for listening, and I'll see you all very soon.
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