1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:25,060 Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, 2 00:00:25,060 --> 00:00:28,560 your election analysis for Across the Circus. 3 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,920 I hope you're all doing well today, wherever you are. 4 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:37,460 So it is Election Day coming up here in the United States, November 7th to be exact, which 5 00:00:37,460 --> 00:00:42,620 is basically Christmas Day for election junkies like myself, even in a year that ends with 6 00:00:42,620 --> 00:00:44,160 an odd number. 7 00:00:44,160 --> 00:00:49,180 Because there's still stuff to look at, interesting races across the country, some not interesting 8 00:00:49,180 --> 00:00:53,780 races as well that are happening on the 7th, and we're going to get to some important ones 9 00:00:53,780 --> 00:00:54,920 in just a bit. 10 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,400 But before we do that, let's talk about what we talked about on our last show. 11 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:04,640 We looked at the Louisiana gubernatorial election and that occurred on October the 14th. 12 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:09,920 And Jeff Landry, Louisiana Attorney General and Republican frontrunner, won the election 13 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,000 outright. 14 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:17,040 He got a majority, just over 51% of the state vote, and that's enough where he gets to take 15 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:18,640 the rest of the month off. 16 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:23,440 There will be no runoff election, as I somewhat thought would happen, but you know, this is 17 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,000 election dissection, not election prediction. 18 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,200 So you know, that shows my strong suit right there. 19 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,560 So yeah, slight majority, but just enough to win the election. 20 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:37,320 It's the first time that a Louisiana governor election has happened without a runoff since 21 00:01:37,320 --> 00:01:38,400 2011. 22 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,440 And I want to point out something I did add, it's kind of election related, but not really. 23 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:46,900 It's funny how when I taped that episode, Steve Scalise, Republican congressman from 24 00:01:46,900 --> 00:01:50,280 Louisiana was in line to become Speaker of the House. 25 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:55,720 Now that was why I added, as I taped this show, before that statement, because I didn't 26 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,920 think something was going to happen in between then, I thought it was going to happen, but 27 00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:05,760 sure enough after that, more and more people went for the speakership and lost like he 28 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:06,760 did. 29 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:11,140 And a Republican congressman from Louisiana did get it. 30 00:02:11,140 --> 00:02:14,320 So I guess we were kind of right. 31 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,000 Mike Johnson, who is now the current Speaker of the House, who, and you know what, I'll 32 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,640 say it again, this is election dissection, not election prediction. 33 00:02:21,640 --> 00:02:26,920 So yeah, if I predict something, even if it's not really a prediction, just don't go for 34 00:02:26,920 --> 00:02:27,920 it. 35 00:02:27,920 --> 00:02:29,960 It's probably not going to happen. 36 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:32,320 Anyway, moving on. 37 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:37,120 November 7th, as mentioned at the top of the show, is election day in the United States, 38 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:43,500 and two states are holding gubernatorial elections, and both of them are very interesting in their 39 00:02:43,500 --> 00:02:44,500 own ways. 40 00:02:44,500 --> 00:02:46,200 So we're going to talk about those. 41 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:51,520 First we head to Kentucky, in what should be the closest race on the 7th. 42 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:56,960 The incumbent governor of Kentucky is Democrat Andy Beshear, and he was elected in 2019 by 43 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:02,740 a very slim margin, and believe it or not, as a Democrat, in the state of Kentucky, which 44 00:03:02,740 --> 00:03:06,400 as we know is a pretty red state, he's actually very popular. 45 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,700 He's the most popular Democratic governor in the country, according to Morning Consult, 46 00:03:11,700 --> 00:03:16,480 and he has pretty moderate views that I guess help him with the state electorate. 47 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:20,200 That doesn't say he doesn't have a strong challenger in this election. 48 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:25,120 His opponent is attorney general Daniel Cameron, who ironically, Andy Beshear was the attorney 49 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:29,520 general of Kentucky before being elected governor, and now Daniel Cameron, the current attorney 50 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,240 general, is going for that job too. 51 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,120 I guess forget about lieutenant governor. 52 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:37,360 If you want to be governor of Kentucky, become attorney general first. 53 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:42,480 So Daniel Cameron won the primary, a very crowded one for that matter, back in May. 54 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:46,560 Daniel Cameron has the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, along with Republican 55 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,640 members of the state legislature and US Congress. 56 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:56,600 Meanwhile, Andy Beshear has some other endorsements from the Democratic electorate of the state, 57 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:01,240 many county sheriffs, state legislators, and interestingly enough, rapper and actor Jack 58 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:06,840 Harlow had a rally in Kentucky recently and asked his fans to vote for Andy Beshear. 59 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,600 You know, Jack Harlow is originally from Louisville, Kentucky. 60 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,400 I didn't know that until I did my research. 61 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:17,160 Now polls have been pretty close, but there have been polls that have been pretty far. 62 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,240 The most recent poll I could find is from Emerson College, and it has the race in a 63 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,080 dead heat, both tied at 47%. 64 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:30,560 Meanwhile, another poll back from October by Garen Hart Yang, it says here, had Andy 65 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,280 Beshear leading by eight points. 66 00:04:33,280 --> 00:04:39,240 Meanwhile, a Republican-led poll by Coefficient has Andy Beshear leading by only two points, 67 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:40,760 well within the margin of error. 68 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:45,920 So it's going to be close, but you know, all of the political reports do have it at either 69 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,300 tilt Democrat or lean Democrat. 70 00:04:48,300 --> 00:04:53,800 So there is a good chance that Andy Beshear will keep his seat, but there's also a significant 71 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,720 chance that Daniel Cameron can flip this seat. 72 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:01,120 And Daniel Cameron will make history if elected, he'll be Kentucky's first ever African American 73 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:02,120 governor. 74 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,120 That's the election that people are really going to be looking at. 75 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,920 Another one they're going to be looking at is the other gubernatorial election on the 76 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,200 docket in the state of Mississippi. 77 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:15,260 Now Mississippi is a much more Republican state than Kentucky in terms of voters and 78 00:05:15,260 --> 00:05:16,920 indexes and things. 79 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,760 But that doesn't say this one isn't all finished up yet. 80 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,840 Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2019, is running for reelection. 81 00:05:24,840 --> 00:05:31,000 And unlike Andy Beshear, he is relatively unpopular amongst the voters and amongst his party. 82 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,800 Although there was word he would receive a significant primary challenge back in August, 83 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,680 he did not and found his way into the Republican nomination. 84 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,240 Now the Democratic primary was not very eventful. 85 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:43,760 Only one candidate ran. 86 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:49,040 That's one of the only state executive offices that's currently held by a Democrat, I believe, 87 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:50,220 if not the only one. 88 00:05:50,220 --> 00:05:55,300 And that's the Democratic nominee is Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley. 89 00:05:55,300 --> 00:06:00,280 And yes, he is related to Elvis, before you ask. 90 00:06:00,280 --> 00:06:04,600 So Brandon Presley is the Democrat running in Mississippi, which may sound like a death 91 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:08,120 sentence depending on who you ask, but he's not out of it yet. 92 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,560 He does have moderate views on many issues. 93 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,800 He's received endorsements from newspapers and organizations throughout the state, a 94 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:19,080 few well-known Democratic politicians throughout the state as well as outside the state. 95 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,280 And he was leading a poll back in January. 96 00:06:22,280 --> 00:06:27,740 However, since then, Tate Reeves has eclipsed that he's been polling well in almost every 97 00:06:27,740 --> 00:06:32,360 other poll since, although one of the last polls was a democratically led poll by public 98 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,880 policy polling, which had him leading Brandon Presley, but only by one point. 99 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:41,320 Of course, it's a democratically led poll, so it could have been tilted toward Presley's 100 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:42,320 favor. 101 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:46,040 But despite that, a lot of people are saying this might be a lot closer to than expected, 102 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:52,360 although all the indexes do have it at either lean or safe Republican. 103 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:57,920 Unlike Daniel Cameron's chances of winning Kentucky, Brandon Presley's chances of winning 104 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,480 Mississippi are a bit slimmer. 105 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,800 But it's still one to look at because, you know, this election does have a new rule compared 106 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,840 to Mississippi's elections in the past. 107 00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:11,360 You see, back in the 1890 Constitution, and I'm seeing this on my computer here, in order 108 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:18,160 for a candidate to win the governor's office, they needed not only a majority of the voters, 109 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:23,120 but a majority of voters in a majority of state house districts. 110 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:28,000 And that was basically put in there to keep from African American voters from really having 111 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,120 a say in elections. 112 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:36,000 But that policy was taken out in 2020, when the voters decided to put a referendum on 113 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:41,040 the ballot and said, you know, it's outdated, very much so, and it doesn't need to be used 114 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:42,040 anymore. 115 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:43,040 So they took it out. 116 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,040 And now whoever wins a majority of the vote wins. 117 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,520 If not, there's a runoff, but there's only two candidates here, so that won't happen. 118 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,200 So if that rule in place, it could help Brandon Presley in a way. 119 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,860 But depending on who votes, it could help Tate Reeves as well. 120 00:07:54,860 --> 00:08:01,240 And there are four states that are having state legislature elections, not just special 121 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,680 elections, but ones that are regularly scheduled, those being the aforementioned Mississippi, 122 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,360 as well as Louisiana, New Jersey and Virginia. 123 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:13,520 Now, a lot of these aren't really looked at, as many of them are safe for their respective 124 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:14,520 parties. 125 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,320 For example, Louisiana and Mississippi are very likely going to keep Republican control 126 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:19,760 of their state legislatures. 127 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:24,240 New Jersey Democrats are likely going to keep their control of the state legislature there. 128 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,520 In Virginia, however, is where it gets interesting. 129 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:31,700 Now, Virginia, the state Senate has a Democratic majority, 22 to 18. 130 00:08:31,700 --> 00:08:36,100 So pretty slim, although election indexes say it does lean toward the Democrats. 131 00:08:36,100 --> 00:08:40,780 The House of Delegates, however, has a Republican majority, 52 to 48. 132 00:08:40,780 --> 00:08:45,680 And according to the index 270 to win, the Democrats are likely going to flip that. 133 00:08:45,680 --> 00:08:50,200 All the seats are up for grabs and based on polls and things, that's how it looks. 134 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:55,040 But this is a opportunity that the Republicans really want, because if they get it, then 135 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,840 with a Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, they'll have complete control of the state 136 00:08:58,840 --> 00:08:59,840 legislature. 137 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,240 So they're going to be on the ground going for it. 138 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,120 But Virginia has gotten more blue over the past few years. 139 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,000 Joe Biden won in 2020. 140 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:11,440 So it's really something to look at to see how the state of Virginia sways. 141 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:17,400 And it could be a bellwether on how the country will sway in the 2024 presidential election. 142 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:22,800 And finally, one more thing we'll be talking about is a referendum in the state of Ohio. 143 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,320 This vote is issue one on the Ohio ballot. 144 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:30,640 It's officially titled, quote, the right to reproductive freedom with protections for 145 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,320 health and safety. 146 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:40,180 This measure, if passed, will codify reproductive rights in Ohio's state constitution, restoring 147 00:09:40,180 --> 00:09:42,960 abortion access throughout the state. 148 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:47,520 Because throughout the last couple of years, there's been bans on abortion by the state 149 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,320 governor and legislature. 150 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:53,640 Then a judge will pause the ban and then the ban will go back again and then it'll be paused 151 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,220 again and it was just a flip flop. 152 00:09:55,220 --> 00:09:59,240 So the people of the state came together to put this referendum on the ballot. 153 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:04,240 And that's one that people are going to be looking a lot for certain because, you know, 154 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:10,960 ever since the Supreme Court ruling that overturned the original Roe v. Wade ruling, states throughout 155 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:15,740 the country have been voting on the right to reproductive access and many red states 156 00:10:15,740 --> 00:10:21,180 have had votes to completely ban it and voters will come and not vote for it. 157 00:10:21,180 --> 00:10:26,160 And this could be another one of those times as polls show that more people are leaning 158 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,280 toward voting yes on this measure than no. 159 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:29,280 But it's still very close. 160 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:35,080 So it could be a chance for the anti-abortion movement to actually win a referendum. 161 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:41,020 Those four elections I talked about are ones that are going to be looked at the most by 162 00:10:41,020 --> 00:10:43,240 political analysts and things. 163 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:49,200 And with a year until the next presidential election, it could really show how the country 164 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:53,580 is thinking and which way they're probably going to be going a year from now. 165 00:10:53,580 --> 00:10:57,420 So it's important to look at stuff like that because you really never know what can happen. 166 00:10:57,420 --> 00:11:02,120 And lastly, as always I say, if you are a registered voter in the state of Kentucky, 167 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:07,280 Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio, or anywhere else in the country that's having an election, 168 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,720 as there are many cities that are having mayoral elections and city council elections and 169 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:16,360 local referendums and things, if you live anywhere that's having an election on November 170 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:24,040 7th, I don't care who or what you vote for, but I do care that you vote. 171 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,040 So please do. 172 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,040 And before I go, there's one last thing I want to add. 173 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,560 We are currently in the month of November, and ever since I was in high school I've participated 174 00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:38,240 in No Shave November, a time where I put down my razor and let my beard grow out freely 175 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:39,460 for the world to see. 176 00:11:39,460 --> 00:11:42,920 And I realized over the years it's less about growing your hair out and more about raising 177 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,340 awareness of health for men and women. 178 00:11:46,340 --> 00:11:51,480 So I have a fundraising page, which I have the link inside the description of this show 179 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:57,320 on No Shave November, and all money that's donated will be given to Fight CRC, which 180 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:02,400 is a non-profit organization that is fighting every day to raise awareness and hopefully 181 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,840 find a cure for colorectal cancer. 182 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,520 So if you'd like to help out, go ahead and click that link down there and give what you 183 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:12,440 can and put your razor down and let your hair grow freely. 184 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:15,020 Well, that's all for this episode. 185 00:12:15,020 --> 00:12:17,400 Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection. 186 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,780 If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across 187 00:12:21,780 --> 00:12:26,220 the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting forum you'd like. 188 00:12:26,220 --> 00:12:51,960 Thank you all for listening, and I'll see you all very soon. 189 00:12:57,220 --> 00:14:21,760 Algid Productions LLC Outro. 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