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Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection,

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your election analysis for Across the Circus.

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I hope you're all doing well today wherever you are.

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So today we're taking a look at two elections set to take place on Tuesday September the

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5th.

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Mark your calendars because there's not one but two special election primaries for two

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open congressional seats.

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Yes, both in different parts of the country and these two seats are in very heavily partisan

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areas.

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One is a very heavy democratic area, the other is a very heavy republican area.

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So the winners of these primaries are very likely going to win their general elections

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in November.

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We are going to take a look at them both.

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We're going to start by heading off to New England to the ocean state, the state of Rhode

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Island.

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Yes, Rhode Island, our nation's smallest state, but not the smallest in population.

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They have two congressional districts and the first congressional district is the one

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we're talking about today.

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Former incumbent David Cicilline stepped down from Congress back in May as he was named

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the new CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, the state's biggest nonprofit organization.

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So due to that, a special election was called.

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Now Rhode Island actually has not had a special election in any capacity in nearly 50 years

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for Congress.

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So this is kind of a big deal.

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Again, this is a very heavily democratic state for that matter.

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Rhode Island is as many states in the New England area are according to the Cook Voting

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Index.

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This is favored by Democrats by 14 points and heavily voted for Joe Biden back in 2020.

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So any Democrat who is a Democrat decided to enter the race.

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And when the filing deadline ended, there were 12 Democratic candidates on the primary

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ballot.

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You heard that right.

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Twelve.

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And if you thought that was a lot, well, at one point there were 23 candidates on that

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same ballot.

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Many of them were disqualified due to lack of signatures.

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Many withdrew before the filing deadline, which brings us down to the final 12, which

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I guess makes for a much less chaotic race, if you want to call it that.

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That's the only example you're probably going to get where a 12 candidate race is quote

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unquote less chaotic.

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So out of the 12 candidates, there are four quote unquote major ones being ones that have

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received the most media attention, highest in fundraising, notable endorsements, things

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like that.

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And those four are Gabe Amow, who is a former White House aide for both Joe Biden and Barack

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Obama, Sandra Cano, a state senator, Sabina Matos, Rhode Island's lieutenant governor

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and former state representative, Aaron Regenberg.

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There was a fifth major candidate, a lawyer by the name of Don Carlson, who had many ads

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on TV and good fundraising numbers.

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However, he decided to drop out of the race due to the stress it's brought amongst him,

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which you know, it can be very stressful running for office.

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I'm sure many people know that.

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So he dropped out of the race and endorsed Sandra Cano for the race.

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However, his name does still appear on the ballot.

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So we take a look at these four for a bit.

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Now Gabe Amow is using his White House experience to his aid when many commercials that shows

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him alongside both President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama working with

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them both and then might help him.

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Sandra Cano using her legislative experience in the state Senate as a theme in many of

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her ads.

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Sabina Matos, who is really the only statewide elected official in this race, has been using

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her name recognition and Aaron Regenberg has also been using a community based model in

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many of his ads as well.

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Now if you look at endorsements, you'll notice some notable names here.

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Many state representatives and state senators have endorsed Sandra Cano.

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Many organizations have endorsed Lieutenant Governor Sabina Matos, Emily's List being

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one of them, along with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Bold pack as well.

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And speaking of caucuses, Gabe Amow received an endorsement from the Congressional Black

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Caucus pack.

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And then Aaron Regenberg has received a notable endorsement, US Senator Bernie Sanders of

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Vermont as well as the Our Revolution organization, which Bernie Sanders helped create, which

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could help him with the progressive vote.

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And you notice some notable names not endorsing, including David Cicilline himself, along with

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the Rhode Island Democratic Party as a whole, who have, I guess, both decided to lay low

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in the race and probably wait until the general election happens.

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And again, whoever wins will likely have the advantage come November 7th.

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So we move from the ocean state to the beehive state.

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Now we head to Utah.

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Utah has four congressional districts.

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The one we'll be talking about today is the second congressional district currently being

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held by Representative Chris Stewart.

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Chris Stewart has decided to step down from Congress.

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His wife is very ill and he has decided to spend most of his time not traveling to and

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from Washington, but spending more time with her and helping her nurse her back to health,

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which is a very nice thing to do.

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So due to that, the seat is open.

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And this isn't the most recent special election in Utah.

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There was one back in 2017 for the third congressional district.

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Now in the state of Utah, they do primary elections a tad bit different than most states.

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Most notably, it starts at a convention level.

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All the party elite come together, in this case, all the ones in this said district,

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and they decide on a candidate to be endorsed by the party and to be their official nominee.

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Now many other parties throughout the area did that, including the Democratic Party,

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which has endorsed state Senator Kathleen Reeb, and the United Utah Party, a toward-the-middle

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third party endorsed January Walker, who's a software development manager, who also has

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the endorsement from Andrew Yang.

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But the one we'll be talking about today is the Republican primary, which according to

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the Cook PVI has a 12-point advantage in this district, which of course means they'll have

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the edge come not November 7th, but November 21st.

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Yes, Governor of Utah Spencer Cox moved the election two weeks after the election day

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on the calendar.

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Not sure why, but who are we to judge?

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So at this convention, as I mentioned previously earlier, party comes together and they vote

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in a few rounds to decide the nominee.

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And then when it was all said and done, the nominee they chose was Celeste Malloy, who

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is an attorney as well as one of Chris Stewart's congressional aides.

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So she got the most votes at the convention.

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After a few rounds of voting, she is the official party endorsed candidate.

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So that means we're done, right?

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Wrong.

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If you're not happy with how you did at the convention, you can achieve a certain number

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of signatures and once you reach that threshold, you'll be put on the ballot against the party

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nominee and face against the voters.

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And whoever wins that vote on September 5th will be the party nominee.

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And two candidates from that convention vote achieved the magic number of signatures and

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are now on the ballot.

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Those being former state representative Becky Edwards, who also ran for Senate last year,

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and Republican national committeeman Bruce Huff.

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Now if you look at the convention vote, both Becky Edwards and Bruce Huff were eliminated

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fairly early, but that didn't stop them.

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And both Becky Edwards and Bruce Huff have actually raised a lot more than Celeste Malloy

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to help get them on television and radio ads and other ways around.

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But when you look at endorsements, it seems to be kind of a one-sided race here because

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Celeste Malloy seems to have received the most important endorsement of all from Chris

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Stewart, the representative whose seat they're aiming for.

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So Chris Stewart has basically chosen Celeste Malloy as his hand-picked successor.

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That on top of other notable endorsements, including the Utah State Fraternal Order of

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Police and an endorsement from former Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt.

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Meanwhile, Bruce Huff and Becky Edwards have not received any notable endorsements, which

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might not help them in the election.

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But you know, it's a three-way race.

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You really don't know how it's going to go until it's done.

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So that's all for now.

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If you didn't know anything about these primaries coming up, well, now you do.

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And to any of our listeners who happen to be in Rhode Island's First District or Utah's

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Second District, I really do not care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote.

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So please do.

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Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection.

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If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across

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Thank you all for listening, and I will see you all very soon.

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