[excluding filler words]
Hey guys and welcome to the Market Manipulation Podcast, probably the only podcast created for the purpose of discussing new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets, must have at least one episode uploaded for public viewing that is 10 minutes or longer by February 28th, other requirements might be added. Well let's hope they're not added and my good buddy DesTiny takes some pity on me.

I only bet to 63%. He still hasn't told me whether this is going to count, but it's fine 'cause I can discuss new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets. Lemme bet up to 69%. That's a good number, lemme bet the other one up too.

But it's actually interesting right now I'm doing something that I haven't really done before, which is, like, hawking the closing-soon markets, um...I haven't done that much.

And there's like a lot of money lying on the ground, like, there was one about composing songs that was sitting at like 30%. You know, people don't realize that there's a lot of money available. It can be accurate as a prediction market platform and also have money lying on the ground. Like that's true.

So what interesting things are there? Let's see, there's this market about the Proof dance and what Joshua is going to wear. Currently winning is 11 non-organic purple potatoes. He says that he will write a five-line poem for every answer, which seems like an interesting choice, but we'll see where that goes.

sacthequeen — sorry, stq — is, um, is now profitable, somehow, despite having bad hot takes… what else is new?

Yeah, there was a Proof School that was announced today — which I was holding some NO on. Joshua was insider trading, so I did lose out a little bit on that. Especially, I should have noticed, like, when Lucia bet all of her portfolio, that was a sign that they were conspirators. I mean I should have figured it out earlier, but I don't really regret the fact that I was betting down at like 85, 90%, especially early on, because a lot of personal goals fail.

One strategy that I've employed that is a relatively uncommon strategy on Manifold, or at least one that I think hasn't been harnessed as much as it could be is just to literally bet NO on people's personal goals, because often people will bet YES as incentive. Like, here's this one by Jonny Spicer about the Cambridge Half Marathon. He says he will only bet YES on this market, so, currently 81 but I'm gonna bet some NO here.

See I think DesTiny is gonna count this, I'm saying real things — or, sorry Wobbles, I forgot DesTiny's going by Wobbles.

Lemme bet this down here, a little limit order flag here, 90 and like 80, I guess, I don't know. I did leave myself enough time to proof-listen to the podcast and post it. This is such a zany idea.

This ILO — IOL market, my Linguistics Olympiad, I don't want to keep buying NO but I think it's overpriced right now!

I mean, I really — this is actually kind of a nice format for me because I do have a lot of Manifold Markets takes so it's not like it's crazy. Let's see, starting is also the February MTG Tournament, which is obviously taking place in March, which Isaac King is running so that's pretty cool.

What else is there...

Yeah, hopefully, someone buys NO on this IOL Market because I wanna be holding YES and I intend to train, so that's good.

Yeah, so let's look at Manifold changes recently. There has been some discussion of Manifold charity. Oh, I think I'm getting my Manifold shirt, um, soon because someone on the Discord said they got their shirt, so maybe I'll get my shirt soon.

Yeah, I make a lot of markets. My creator rank is 39, which is actually better than my trader rank which is 43. Although this says 38 now, did that change? Alright, sorry, I have 1527 that I should probably invest in markets that are closing soon. [click] Lemme, lemme find some of those. [clicks]

Markets. [clicks]

Opening "closing soon". [click]

I mean there's gotta be some.

Okay, this podcast thing, I don't know DesTiny, this is, like, podcast-like, okay, what can I say. You could discuss in the comments whether you agree with my hot takes: what do you think about the practice of betting on your own markets? What do you think about the practice of not resolving your markets, or how bad is that?

"Will any of my markets that was posted in February reach 400 unique traders?" from DesTiny. I don't think so, 'cause I was just looking, and it seems like none of them even hit 350 right now. Total traders, yeah 3, yeah that's, that's lower than 4%.

Alright, let's… [inaudible] I don't know, I... [inaudible], I definitely think betting should probably be capped, um, at above 99% and below 1%, I think. I think I believe this, because at that point, like, it's often the question of discount rates and whether people want to sell their positions on that market to bet on other markets and you're kind of betting on whether people will sell their positions on the market. 

[click] Hey look, I got back another thousand, but Isaac King resolved "Will at least 30 users bet on this market from Discord." That's the live component. 

No, I just like when the emphasis is on predicting, and I think percentages at that point don't tell you very much.

Let's see, another topic is Metaculus. I just got a Metaculus account. Metaculus is an interesting forecasting website. I made a market about whether I would make 100 predictions on that website. What's interesting is it has the chance of Biden becoming the nominee much lower than, um, Manifold, which is itself much higher than PredictIt. I think the PredictIt thing, we agree is, like, established to be wrong because there's a lot of dumb money from, like, Trump supporters and stuff. 

Let's see what PredictIt has that at right now. Yeah, [unintelligible] at 61%. Yeahhh, but they might go under, so, I don't know. But, I don't know, I think Biden's chances are pretty likely. I published a blog post at some point that's saying that Biden will almost certainly run for reelection. Just because almost all presidents have, so it makes sense, you know? Like, even the presidents that have set age records. Although Biden's age is new, but, I still think in general it's a good forecasting practice just to look at priors and base rates and stuff.

So we're sort of nearing the mark needed for this to be an official podcast. What'd I call it? The Market Manipulation Podcast. As you can see, this is heavily scripted and planned, and, you know, suchlike, and therefore has great interestingness and validity.

So… I mean, Manifold Markets, I've spent a lot of time. I actually think it would be cool, I would listen to a Manifold Markets-themed podcast, especially if it was someone knowledgeable. It's not clear to me this will be the defining Manifold Markets podcast, but it does feel like this is a Manifold Markets podcast, so thank you for bearing with me, and I believe in you to treat this as a real podcast and react to my hot takes and resolve this market the right way. 

That's it for the Market Manipulation Podcast! See you next time there's another market to manipulate with a podcast, or if anyone ever feels the need to, what, what did it say...

or if anyone… if you want to hear any more discussion. Oh, god, sorry, I should fix this in editing, but I don't have time to edit this. If anyone wants thoughts on new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets, um, yeah!


[including filler words]
Hey guys and welcome to the Market Manipulation Podcast, probably the only podcast created, um, for the purpose of discussing new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets, must have at least one episode uploaded for public viewing that is 10 minutes or longer by February 28th, other requirements might be added. Well let's hope they're not added and my, my good buddy DesTiny takes, um, some pity on me.

I only bet to 63%. I still, he still hasn't told me whether this is going to count, but it's fine 'cause I can discuss new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets. Uh, like that, lemme bet up to 69%. That's a good, good number, lemme bet the other one up too.

Uh, but it's actually interesting right now I'm doing something that I haven't really done before, which is, like, hawking the closing-soon markets, um...I haven't done that much.

Uh, and there's there's like a lot of money lying on the ground, like, there was one about composing songs that was sitting at like 30%. You know, people don't realize that, that there's a lot of money available. Like, it can be accurate as a prediction market platform and also have money lying on the ground. Like that's, that's true.

Um, so what, what interesting things are there? Let's see, there's this market about the Proof dance and what Joshua is going to wear. Currently winning is 11 non-organic purple potatoes. He, he says that he will write a five-line poem for every answer, which seems like an interesting choice, uh, but we'll see where that goes.

Uh, sacthequeen — sorry, stq — is, um, is now profitable, somehow, despite having bad hot takes… Um, what else is new?

Yeah, there was a Proof School dance today— uh, was announced today — which I was holding some NO on. Joshua was insider trading, so I did lose out a little bit on that, um. Especially, I should have noticed, like, when Lucia bet all of her portfolio, that was, like, a sign that they were conspirators. But, I'm not, um — I don't really regret the fact that I was — I mean I should have figured it out earlier, but I don't really regret the fact that I was betting down at like 85, 90%, like, especially early on, because like a lot of personal goals fail.

One, one strategy that I've employed that, um, is a relatively uncommon strategy on Manifold, or at least one that I think hasn't been harnessed as much as it could be is just to literally bet NO on people's personal goals, um, like, because often people will bet YES as incentive. Like, here's this one by Jonny Spicer about the Cambridge Half Marathon. He says he will only bet YES on this market, so, currently 81 but I'm gonna bet some NO here.

See I think DesTiny is gonna count this, I'm saying real things — or, sorry Wobbles, Wobbles, I forgot DesTiny's going by Wobbles, um.

Lemme bet this down here, a little limit order flag here, 90 and like 80, I guess, I don't know. I'm — I do — I did leave myself enough time to proof-listen to the podcast and post it. This is such a zany idea.

This, uh, ILO — IOL market, my Linguistics Olympiad, I don't want to keep buying NO but I think it's overpriced right now!

Um, I mean, I really — this is actually kind of a nice format for me because I can — I do have a lot of Manifold Markets takes so it's not like it's crazy, uh, let's see starting, uh, is also the February MTG Tournament, which is obviously taking place in March, um, which Isaac King is running so that's pretty cool.

Um, what else is there...

Yeah, I'm hoping — hopefully, someone buys NO on this IOL Market because I think, I want to buy — I wanna be holding YES and I intend to train, so that's good, um.

Yeah, so let's look at Manifold changes recently. There, there has been some discussion of Manifold charity, um. Oh, I think I'm getting my Manifold shirt, um, soon because someone on the Discord they got their shirt, so maybe I'll get my shirt soon.

Um, yeah, I make a lot of markets. My creator rank is 39, well, which is actually lower than — uh, it's better than my trader rank which is 43. Although this says 38 now, did that change? Alright, sorry, I have 1527 that I should probably invest in markets that are closing soon. [click] Lemme, lemme find some of those. [clicks]

Markets. [clicks]

Opening "closing soon". [click]

I mean there's gotta be some.

Okay, this podcast thing, I don't know Des — DesTiny, this is, like, sound — this is like podcast-like, okay, what can I say. You could, um, discuss in the comments whether you agree with my hot takes: um, what do you think about the practice of betting on your own markets? Um, what do you think about the practice of not resolving your markets, or how, how bad is that?

"Will any of my markets that was posted in February reach 400 unique traders?" from DesTiny. I don't think so, 'cause I was just looking, and it seems like none of them even hit 350 right now. Um, total traders, yeah 3, yeah that's, that's lower than 4%.

Alright, let's, um, um… [inaudible] I don't know, I... [inaudible], I definitely think betting should probably be capped, um, at bel— above 99% and below 1%, I think. I think I believe this, because, like, at that point, like, it's often the question of discount rates and whether people want to sell their positions on that market to bet on other markets and you're kind of betting on whether people will sell their positions on the market. 

[click] um. Hey look, I got back another thousand, but Isaac King resolved "Will at least 30 users bet on this market from Discord." Um, that's the live component. 

No, I think that — I just like when the emphasis is on predicting, and I think, uh, percentages at that point are kind of, like, they don't tell you very much.

Um, let's see another topic is, uh, Metaculus, uh, I just got a Metaculus account. Uh, Metaculus is an interesting forecasting website. I made a market about whether I would use — I would make 100, uh, predictions on that website. What's interesting is it has, uh, the chance to — it has the chance of Biden becoming the nominee much lower than, um, Manifold, which is itself much higher than PredictIt. I think the PredictIt thing, we agree is, uh, like, established to be wrong because there's a lot of, like, dumb money from, like, Trump supporters and stuff. 

Um, let's see what PredictIt has that at right now. Yeah, [unintelligible] at 61%. Yeahhh, but it might, they might go under, so, I don't know. But, I don't know, I think Biden's chances are pretty likely. I, I published a blog post at some point that's saying that Biden will almost certainly run for reelection. Um, just because it's like, almost all presidents have, so it like makes sense, um, you know? Like, even, even the presidents that have set age records. Although Biden's age is new, but, I still think, like in general it's a good forecasting practice just to look at priors and base rates and stuff.

Um, so we're sort of nearing the mark needed for this to be an official podcast. What'd I call it? The Market Manipulation Podcast. Uh, as you can see, this is heavily, heavily scripted and planned, and, you know, suchlike, and therefore has great interestingness and validity.

Um, so… I mean, Manifold Markets, I've spent a lot of, a lot of time. I actually think it would be cool, I would listen to a Manifold Markets-themed podcast, especially if it was, if it was someone knowledgeable, um. It's not clear to me this will be the defining Manifold Markets podcast, but it does feel like this is a Manifold Markets podcast, so, you know the — so thank you for bearing with me, and I believe in you to treat this as a real podcast and react to my hot takes and resolve this market the right way. 

Uh, that's it for the Market Manipulation Podcast! See you next time there's another market to manipulate with a podcast, uh, or if, uh, anyone ever feels the need to, what, what did it say...

or if anyone… uh, if you want to hear any more discussion. Oh, god, sorry, I should fix this in editing, but I'm not — I don't have time to edit this. If anyone wants thoughts on new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets, um, yeah!