WEBVTT

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you You're listening to Pods with Nick and James.

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I'm James. Say hi, Nick. Hi, how you doing? Okay,

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so today's subject is one which has dominated,

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well, less so now, but dominated the news in

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early 2022. It is one which some people have...

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uh said is a long time coming it's definitely

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a topic that again the moment i've touched upon

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this i realized i could have split this into

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uh seven or eight different topics but uh the

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topic we're going to be talking about today is

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the russian ukraine war um which is still ongoing

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currently uh has been going on now for three

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years um just trying to get look at it try and

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figure out How has this happened? How is it still

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going on? What are some of the major points that

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have led to this? At another point, I'll probably

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try and do maybe logistics of how things have

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started and how they're going on. But for now,

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we're just going to stick with a loose overview.

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Doing some research into this, I found that it's

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impossible not to come across as... uh either

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opinionated or ignorant so um to any of our listeners

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out there i apologize for anything that i say

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that uh that may offend but just i've i've got

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opinions on this but once again this is one of

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those depressing topics which like um yeah uh

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like To be fair, like so many of the topics that

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we've covered before, it's just turned out to

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be confusing and a little bit depressing, a little

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bit like the Palestine -Israeli episode that

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we did a good, was it a year back or like several

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months back at least? Yeah, I think I know what

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you're talking about, where you expect it to

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be quite clear -cut and there to be a good reason

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behind why there's such conflict, and yet it's

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really vague and muddy water. Yeah, and everybody

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seems to say things from a different angle. It's

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almost like the two different narratives for

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the two different sides just don't seem to have

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any middle ground. My two main sources for this

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episode was two books. So you've got the Russo

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-Ukrainian War. by Cyril Polsky, published by

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Penguin Books. And then you've got How the West

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Brought War to Ukraine, Understanding How US

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and NATO Policies Led to Crisis, War, and the

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Risk of Nuclear Catastrophe by Benjamin Abloh.

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Just for a couple of minutes here. the second

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of those books is it's well written and it's

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honest and it has for me it has intellectual

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integrity in that when it makes assertions it

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admits they are assertions when it makes assumptions

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it admits they are assumptions but because of

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the amount that it does that it's also i wasn't

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i i was partially convinced but i wasn't fully

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convinced uh by that second book like the there

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were too many what -ifs and there were two there

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was too much uh too much using of certain analogies

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like um American foreign policy, how America

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reacts to other nations building up weapons and

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arms close to its border, compared to how Russia

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reacts to NATO building up arms on its border.

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And they kept on using this ridiculous analogy

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of, well, what would happen if Russia started

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doing military exercises in canada and it was

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just like oh well the canadians and the americans

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might not always get on but they share a language

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and that's not the border i'd go for i'd go i'd

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say use mexico but anyway um i get it i found

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a lot of the data sources as i was like uh looking

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through a lot of research you know i i tend to

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do uh research for these episodes has not really

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come from any one particular source i i go through

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so many different how many different sources

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um yeah you do a lot wider anger and there's

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some that i come across where i'm like this feels

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really biased really one -sided i don't want

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that i want um an unbiased um perspective like

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if it paints like that If it paints a picture

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that is leaning more one way or the other, fair

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enough. As long as it's fact -driven, and as

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long as it doesn't lean into emotional reaction,

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it's justified. I'm okay with that. But most

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of the time, when I was looking through the number

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of sources, I closed the page and moved on. because

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of how emotionally i'm okay with emotive language

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as long as it's backed up yeah don't say what's

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what i struggle with is when like people make

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an accusation and then don't necessarily use

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an example or act like it's self -evident yeah

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which i get use people do in interpersonal arguments

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all the time but if you're writing something

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in black and white about a socio -political conflict

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you've got to back up yeah you've got to back

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it up you know but anyway exactly i mean um i

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was just exactly exactly said like um the okay

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to be passionate about what you're saying but

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when you're writing a a publicity on publication

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on But in such a grand event, very careful, because

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otherwise you can't. It makes it feel like propaganda.

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And you may well be absolutely right in what

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you're saying, but the way that you're saying

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it makes it feel like propaganda trying to make

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me. need to be fair i got the same from some

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of the russian documents they were very i mean

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russian or they are really wrong on how wrong

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the world is but you look between the lines you

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can what points they're trying to make Some of

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the less bias is a bit more of a two. But yeah.

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Centuries, if not a millennia or more. Oh, yeah,

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absolutely. Like all conflicts, it's not just

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this one instance. Oh, exactly. Absolutely. Okay,

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so I tell you what, let's talk a little bit about

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the history of the two nations. So, Ukraine,

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Belarus and Russia do have intertwining and shared

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history. Both Belarus and Ukraine have been part

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of multiple Russian empires. I use that term

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loosely, I am saying the USSR was an empire in

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and of itself. And there were the historical

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empires, and it's changed over the years. What

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I will say, though, is that although the Crimea

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may have had a high Russian population recently,

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looking back through history at the two nations,

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they're separate. Yeah. Like, Ukraine is a separate...

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nation um like russia before it was even named

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russia by uh peter the great in like the late

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around just after the time of the american revolution

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like russia and ukraine like separate separate

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languages separate similar but separate languages

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separate culture they were muscovites weren't

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they yeah yeah like like this but it's just okay

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so yeah like ukraine is different different from

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russia like it's not it's not like um it has

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its own history england yeah like originally

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if you go back far enough like it was like the

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died in like started with the Kievan Rus', right?

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Yes, but even that, when the people from Moscovite,

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Moscovite, sorry, was that the name of? They

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were Moscovites. Moscovites. When the Moscovites

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travelled back to Kiev, that's when they realised,

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oh shit, these people are different from us.

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And yet the narrative still stuck that the people

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were the same, and they're not. Sorry, you go

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though, I'm talking too much. Even the Belarus,

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you could say the same for the Belarus. There

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is distinct historical stories for each of the

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nations. It was the Russian Empire that kind

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of... Actually, that's a lie. Ukraine has gone

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through a number of different evolutions. a polish

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rule it's been alien rule and then predominantly

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in under russian rule um and like that has been

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an ongoing theme throughout history um the russian

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back tried to rule i think They feel that because

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of the Kievan Rus history they share, they feel

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like their ancestral capital Kiev. And they want

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it, want it back. They want their... As you said,

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the Muscovites were a separate... They came,

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settled there alongside the kids and became part

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of the same thing, if I remember correctly. Well,

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I'm not certain, I'm afraid. I did some research

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into this, but all I know is that the ancestral

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homeland of... I didn't realize that Kiev was

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this much of a. Cultural, historical, cultural

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and political powerhouse and hub. I just I have

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to put my hands up and say, you know, I didn't

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know that. But it was the Mongols that overrun

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it. Yeah. Also, again, it's still. Still surprises

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me just how far -reaching the Mongols were and

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how many of the Eastern European countries they've

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kind of like literally overran at different points

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throughout history. Absolutely. I mean, they

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say Rome wasn't built in a day. Tell you what,

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the Mongolian Empire, bloody, was. It was sharp.

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It did literally cover so much of the globe.

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so quickly in comparison and considering they

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don't have modern technology it was and horse

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uh like and and fair in transports like hearts

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and foot work that they incredible but anyway

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we're digressing um so the russian empire effectively

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trained over about 200 years from about the 18th

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then um fell under brought under the fold of

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the soviet soviet union right was at the end

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of the russian empire the beginning of the ssr

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right yeah but like again it's It wasn't necessarily

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a smooth transition and it's not one thing ended

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immediately and the next thing popped up. It's

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interesting that Ukraine has always been kind

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of separate and it's always been Russia. I hate

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to say it from the looks of things, like just

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treating Ukraine... okay so i'm going to make

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an analogy here and i apologize to any listeners

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but and this is just my opinion but the way that

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russia treats ukraine seems really really similar

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to the way that england has traditionally treated

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um ireland wales and scotland with just every

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couple of hundred years some kind of atrocity

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is committed by the the larger, more centralized

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power against the other ones. And one thing that

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I was really surprised to learn is that even

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during the time of Stalin, like with the movement

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of resources when Ukraine was under the USSR,

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4 million people, like Ukraine is a fertile land

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and at one point was the breadbasket of Europe.

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But during Stalin's early reign, 4 million Ukrainians

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were allowed to starve through the movement of

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resources as a way of bringing the Ukrainians

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to heal or to kind of stop the people from rising

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up. And it's just... It's ridiculous. Like, just

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the way... The way that neighbouring countries

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seem to treat each other is just absolutely.

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Sorry, I know that's really basic, but it was

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just something that really surprised me because

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this wasn't like way back in ancient times. This

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is literally in the in the 20th century. And

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I just I honestly didn't think. I know genocides

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happen, but I didn't realise starvation, literal

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starvation. There was a name for it, wasn't there?

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I can't remember. Now I feel like I'm... Let's

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go over... There is a... What about more recent?

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Look at that. What is the reason the Ukrainian

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-Russian war actually started when it did? Okay,

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so the most recent, the recent conflicts have

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happened for a while with the breakdown of the

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USSR in the late 80s and early 90s. It's interesting

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that the old president of the USSR, in their

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letters and in their writings, literally saw

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Ukraine as the latchkey. to any kind of Russian

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empire. The way that they put it was that without

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Ukraine, Russia can't have an empire. With Ukraine,

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Russia immediately is an empire. So he kind of

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saw Ukraine as pivotal. And it's understandable

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considering... out of all of the USSR states,

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Ukraine was always the second. You had Russia,

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kind of like this absolute, you know, like the

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area of Russia is absolutely vast. I should have

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looked it up. Yeah, you look at a map and you

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go, which bits Russia, which bits Asia? No, no,

00:19:56.079 --> 00:19:58.940
no. All the top of Asia. Yeah, that's Russia.

00:19:59.039 --> 00:20:04.460
Yeah, yeah. Like Russia might as well be. Yeah,

00:20:04.519 --> 00:20:09.619
if Russia was separated from all the other countries

00:20:09.619 --> 00:20:12.500
and was its own landmass, it would be considered

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a continent, not an island. Yeah. You know what

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I mean? Like, it stretches so far across the

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world on... You know what, even just looking

00:20:24.160 --> 00:20:28.359
at this world map now, yeah, it stretches halfway

00:20:28.359 --> 00:20:30.839
across the world. It used to be able to go from

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Russia to America, didn't you, but on foot. Yeah.

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It used to be an ice bridge. It used to connect

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between... That's how they made the oil pipelines

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between Russia and America. It's crazy. But it's...

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Russia is massive. Ukraine is still a large country

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geographically. But it's just... Coming from

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the UK, that's not a difficult thing. Yeah. No,

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that's true. That's true. That's true. We're

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tiny by comparison. But... Like, Ukraine was

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always, like, a surprising close second when

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it came to productivity, when it came to, like,

00:21:16.089 --> 00:21:20.869
when looking at the things of, like, in the early

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20th century, like, it was always, this is what's

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made in Russia. This is what's made in Ukraine.

00:21:31.349 --> 00:21:35.650
it was always surprising just how close the Ukrainians

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were to keeping up with the Russians. Yeah. It

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was just, yeah. So Ukraine seems to be like an

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incredibly vibrant country. And yet since the

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USSR broke down, Ukraine has not managed as well,

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has it? No. No, that's absolutely true. So Ukraine,

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so unlike, here's another, you know what, I'm

00:22:12.460 --> 00:22:14.420
glad that, although we've got some listeners,

00:22:14.519 --> 00:22:17.880
I'm glad that we don't have a huge listener base.

00:22:17.920 --> 00:22:19.640
I'm not going to piss off too many people with

00:22:19.640 --> 00:22:26.799
this one, but unlike Brexit, Ukraine did utilaterally

00:22:26.799 --> 00:22:33.160
vote for its independence. You know, like, it's

00:22:33.160 --> 00:22:36.380
interesting that the bits of Ukraine that are

00:22:36.380 --> 00:22:43.000
further away from Russia voted 80 -90 % for independence.

00:22:43.259 --> 00:22:49.200
The Crimea, which is currently part of Russia

00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:56.680
and had the highest contingent of Russian people

00:22:56.680 --> 00:23:07.059
within Ukraine. still voted 54 % for independence.

00:23:07.140 --> 00:23:08.480
Yeah, for independence. To be part of Ukraine.

00:23:09.220 --> 00:23:14.680
To be part of Ukraine. And yet Russia chose to...

00:23:14.680 --> 00:23:21.519
What's the word? Russia chose to... I can't remember

00:23:21.519 --> 00:23:29.079
the... I mean... But I'll tell you what, we'll

00:23:29.079 --> 00:23:32.640
go for a quick timeline of events. So we won't

00:23:32.640 --> 00:23:35.819
go back to ancient, ancient history, but we'll

00:23:35.819 --> 00:23:38.259
just say the two nations have a muddy past. The

00:23:38.259 --> 00:23:42.019
borders have moved. Russia has ruled over Ukraine

00:23:42.019 --> 00:23:44.740
at different times of history. Ukraine has never

00:23:44.740 --> 00:23:50.660
ruled over Russia, so it can't really be compared

00:23:50.660 --> 00:23:52.960
to France and England, where things have gone

00:23:52.960 --> 00:24:01.339
backwards and forwards massively. But like, okay,

00:24:01.400 --> 00:24:06.599
so the breakdown of the USSR happens. Ukraine,

00:24:06.599 --> 00:24:12.119
yeah, Ukraine goes about its business and doesn't

00:24:12.119 --> 00:24:15.559
do so well financially, but it does at least

00:24:15.559 --> 00:24:20.819
have a democratically elected government for

00:24:20.819 --> 00:24:25.039
a time, from what I've read into Russian politics.

00:24:25.740 --> 00:24:29.319
is that after the breakdown of the USSR, they

00:24:29.319 --> 00:24:34.960
had a couple of people, but quite quickly, within

00:24:34.960 --> 00:24:43.039
by about 1993, an individual, there's like coups

00:24:43.039 --> 00:24:46.700
in Russia, and one individual, I can't remember

00:24:46.700 --> 00:24:50.859
his exact name, but he basically, I hate to say

00:24:50.859 --> 00:24:57.279
it, does a Palpatine. literally, despite being

00:24:57.279 --> 00:25:00.180
held back by two different governing bodies,

00:25:00.559 --> 00:25:03.259
literally says, I'm going to give myself emergency

00:25:03.259 --> 00:25:09.059
powers. Gives himself emergency powers and then

00:25:09.059 --> 00:25:13.960
just stops listening. And the democratically

00:25:13.960 --> 00:25:17.279
parts of the Russian government can't get enough

00:25:17.279 --> 00:25:19.940
majority in order to impeach and get him out.

00:25:20.240 --> 00:25:23.799
Well, the year I made him was. Yeah. Yeah, sorry,

00:25:23.920 --> 00:25:29.099
that is it. Yeah, no, that's it. That is it.

00:25:32.380 --> 00:25:38.559
That's it. That's the bloke. Okay, so you got

00:25:38.559 --> 00:25:43.259
that happening in the 90s. A lot more, unfortunately,

00:25:43.359 --> 00:25:49.240
negative stuff happened with Croatia and a lot

00:25:49.240 --> 00:25:53.589
of other eastern countries. Bad things happen

00:25:53.589 --> 00:25:56.170
there. We'll cover that in another episode at

00:25:56.170 --> 00:26:00.809
some point if we get round to it. Things keep

00:26:00.809 --> 00:26:07.930
going. Now, things start to get hairy as more

00:26:07.930 --> 00:26:17.809
nations join NATO. Now, America, American foreign

00:26:17.809 --> 00:26:24.620
policy is somewhat contradictory in that They

00:26:24.620 --> 00:26:28.119
react very poorly to people building up weapons

00:26:28.119 --> 00:26:33.839
close to their borders. Yet they expect other

00:26:33.839 --> 00:26:38.660
countries to be fine when they do it. If you

00:26:38.660 --> 00:26:40.900
go back, the time period I'm going to focus at

00:26:40.900 --> 00:26:46.500
now is the early 2000s. Right, yeah. When Ukraine

00:26:46.500 --> 00:26:50.500
starts to show an interest in joining NATO. And

00:26:50.500 --> 00:26:58.500
America keeps on running large -scale military

00:26:58.500 --> 00:27:04.960
exercises in NATO countries. And specifically,

00:27:05.160 --> 00:27:12.500
they start setting up missile systems, surface

00:27:12.500 --> 00:27:16.720
-to -surface missiles with hundreds of miles

00:27:16.720 --> 00:27:23.079
of range. not hundreds of miles from the russian

00:27:23.079 --> 00:27:31.039
border yeah which in and of itself like i don't

00:27:31.039 --> 00:27:34.720
blame russia for their initial response of saying

00:27:34.720 --> 00:27:39.779
this is not okay um there was a famous paper

00:27:39.779 --> 00:27:47.660
a famous um exchange where uh the russian I think

00:27:47.660 --> 00:27:50.420
foreign minister literally said, nyet means nyet,

00:27:50.579 --> 00:27:56.160
which is literally no means no. With all due

00:27:56.160 --> 00:27:59.519
respect, if somebody is waving a gun at you,

00:27:59.640 --> 00:28:01.920
you're going to be ducking down out of the way,

00:28:01.960 --> 00:28:04.279
holding your hand out, going, oh no, stop, stop.

00:28:04.759 --> 00:28:07.880
Even if they say to you, it's not loaded, mate.

00:28:08.799 --> 00:28:13.319
It's not loaded. No, that's it. That's it. But

00:28:13.319 --> 00:28:17.210
it's also like, it's the capabilities. Why put

00:28:17.210 --> 00:28:22.089
missile systems which can... And this is the

00:28:22.089 --> 00:28:26.130
annoying thing. The tactical flexibility of these

00:28:26.130 --> 00:28:28.869
systems, I understand. I understand why a military

00:28:28.869 --> 00:28:32.630
commander would want these missile systems which

00:28:32.630 --> 00:28:37.869
can have thermonuclear missiles in them. Yeah.

00:28:37.970 --> 00:28:43.690
But you don't put those on your border. You know?

00:28:43.869 --> 00:28:47.569
Yeah. You don't... Yeah, like that's... When

00:28:47.569 --> 00:28:54.309
Russia did it in Cuba, what did America do? Freaks

00:28:54.309 --> 00:28:57.910
the fuck out. Sorry, I think is the technical

00:28:57.910 --> 00:29:01.490
term. But it's pot kettle black, isn't it? Yeah.

00:29:02.309 --> 00:29:05.369
Yeah, and it's just, it's ridiculous. So I completely

00:29:05.369 --> 00:29:11.210
understand. But what I love is that Russia went

00:29:11.210 --> 00:29:15.289
to the United Nations. And again, this is so

00:29:15.289 --> 00:29:17.470
bad that I'm sorry that I've only heard this

00:29:17.470 --> 00:29:23.349
and not written it down properly. But I'm not

00:29:23.349 --> 00:29:25.250
going to pretend that I'm a massive fan of Putin.

00:29:25.410 --> 00:29:29.049
He's literally taken his country into war. But

00:29:29.049 --> 00:29:34.269
in 2007, he brought something to the UN's and

00:29:34.269 --> 00:29:37.230
to the European Union's attention. And he tried

00:29:37.230 --> 00:29:44.409
to get everybody to sign a missile accord. saying

00:29:44.409 --> 00:29:49.470
that, okay, look, none of us, nobody, is going

00:29:49.470 --> 00:29:57.470
to put nuclear missile facilities next to each

00:29:57.470 --> 00:30:05.410
other's borders. And even if the phrasing in

00:30:05.410 --> 00:30:09.369
it was unfair, even if the demands of it were

00:30:09.369 --> 00:30:16.829
ridiculous, he still went, peaceably to the world

00:30:16.829 --> 00:30:24.430
stage and tried to do things legally slash get

00:30:24.430 --> 00:30:27.809
an accord going so that people weren't putting

00:30:27.809 --> 00:30:31.930
nuclear weapons or missile systems which can

00:30:31.930 --> 00:30:36.269
easily contain nuclear weapons on the border

00:30:36.269 --> 00:30:40.279
of his country i think that That was reasonable.

00:30:40.319 --> 00:30:42.299
That's where the reasonableness stops by the

00:30:42.299 --> 00:30:46.619
end. But the very fact that he did that. I can't

00:30:46.619 --> 00:30:50.539
say I can't fault that, you know. And then later,

00:30:50.700 --> 00:30:54.059
when people are accusing him of coming up with

00:30:54.059 --> 00:30:57.039
a false narrative, elements of of the narrative

00:30:57.039 --> 00:31:01.940
spoken are false. But there are there is I completely

00:31:01.940 --> 00:31:05.759
understand he why he would possibly feel or why

00:31:05.759 --> 00:31:10.960
the Russian people could quite easily feel. by

00:31:10.960 --> 00:31:18.039
the North Atlantic Task Force beginning to put

00:31:18.039 --> 00:31:22.900
assault weapons on their border and then claiming

00:31:22.900 --> 00:31:26.900
it's self -defence. Likewise, though, I also

00:31:26.900 --> 00:31:31.119
can understand why NATO is a little bit scared

00:31:31.119 --> 00:31:38.200
because another source of mine is a podcast called...

00:31:39.889 --> 00:31:44.250
Trigonometry. And they talk a little bit about

00:31:44.250 --> 00:31:52.869
Russia's military potential. Russia is making

00:31:52.869 --> 00:31:57.430
more shells than the whole of Europe, or sorry,

00:31:57.470 --> 00:32:02.670
the whole of NATO and America combined. Which

00:32:02.670 --> 00:32:05.130
is terrifying. And they are upping their production

00:32:05.130 --> 00:32:08.650
all the time. So again, it's... It's frustrating

00:32:08.650 --> 00:32:14.250
that we've got this standoff of two powers which

00:32:14.250 --> 00:32:18.430
are upping their military capacity, one through

00:32:18.430 --> 00:32:23.930
the placement of weapons of... possible weapons

00:32:23.930 --> 00:32:27.690
of mass destruction, and another through the

00:32:27.690 --> 00:32:30.769
mass production of weapons on the ground. Yeah.

00:32:30.869 --> 00:32:37.460
And it's annoying. Didn't Russia suggest... a

00:32:37.460 --> 00:32:45.720
joint missile base in Azerbaijan as a compromise

00:32:45.720 --> 00:32:56.279
for the US building these missile bases in Europe.

00:32:56.519 --> 00:32:58.819
They basically said, look, we don't like it,

00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:03.839
but we understand that you need them for the

00:33:03.839 --> 00:33:08.559
rogue states that you're coming up against. But

00:33:08.559 --> 00:33:12.019
if you feel that way, rather than do it on your

00:33:12.019 --> 00:33:14.640
own, right on our doorstep, why don't we do it

00:33:14.640 --> 00:33:19.259
over there and we'll do it... I mean, if that's

00:33:19.259 --> 00:33:22.539
the case, that would have been a better... And

00:33:22.539 --> 00:33:25.440
then it was rejected by the US. That it wasn't

00:33:25.440 --> 00:33:36.839
in a good enough position to be beneficial. I

00:33:36.839 --> 00:33:39.700
mean, that does just sound like a cop -out, doesn't

00:33:39.700 --> 00:33:43.319
it? But again, I haven't seen the military report,

00:33:43.500 --> 00:33:48.559
so I wouldn't know. But if, I don't know, if

00:33:48.559 --> 00:33:52.480
the two, if the world's two largest powers are

00:33:52.480 --> 00:33:57.960
America and Russia, and assuming, yeah, well,

00:33:58.000 --> 00:34:00.660
it would be China now, yeah. But assuming that

00:34:00.660 --> 00:34:07.579
that, if that's the case, if you're... frustrating

00:34:07.579 --> 00:34:12.579
the world's other superpower and they come up

00:34:12.579 --> 00:34:16.579
with a compromise. Although it's not the military

00:34:16.579 --> 00:34:19.179
way of doing things, the diplomatic way would

00:34:19.179 --> 00:34:24.500
be to shake their hand off. Yeah. Like, I don't

00:34:24.500 --> 00:34:26.639
know. It just, all right, but sorry. Anyway,

00:34:26.719 --> 00:34:33.039
after 2007, Russia continues to get frustrated.

00:34:35.630 --> 00:34:40.530
America apparently backs a number of coups in

00:34:40.530 --> 00:34:46.909
Ukraine, and a pro -Russian democratic government

00:34:46.909 --> 00:34:53.590
is overthrown by an ultra -nationalistic government.

00:34:57.250 --> 00:35:00.409
I don't know the exact parties, I don't know

00:35:00.409 --> 00:35:02.849
the exact details, but I know that that happened,

00:35:02.889 --> 00:35:06.150
that there was a pro -Russian government. And

00:35:06.150 --> 00:35:10.309
it has been replaced through revolution. How

00:35:10.309 --> 00:35:13.690
much the US has actually been involved with that,

00:35:13.730 --> 00:35:17.949
I don't know. It sounds like political assassination.

00:35:18.010 --> 00:35:25.590
It's a technique where the American government

00:35:25.590 --> 00:35:31.969
essentially depose a leader and then appoint

00:35:31.969 --> 00:35:36.519
one of their own. For lack of a better term.

00:35:36.960 --> 00:35:43.199
Yeah, or somebody who is not even... Is pro -America.

00:35:43.780 --> 00:35:47.059
Yeah, pro -America or whoever, whatever fits

00:35:47.059 --> 00:35:51.340
their needs at the time. Yeah. And sometimes

00:35:51.340 --> 00:35:53.400
that backfires horribly on them, but we'll go

00:35:53.400 --> 00:35:57.119
into those at another point. So you've then got

00:35:57.119 --> 00:36:01.719
this very anti -Russian government on Russia's

00:36:01.719 --> 00:36:05.989
border. Unsurprisingly, the Russians get more

00:36:05.989 --> 00:36:18.309
frustrated by this. And eventually they do literally

00:36:18.309 --> 00:36:26.250
annex Crimea in 2014. And that causes a huge

00:36:26.250 --> 00:36:31.050
amount of... Well, it's still an invasion of

00:36:31.050 --> 00:36:34.639
sorts. There's a large amount of Russian people

00:36:34.639 --> 00:36:43.280
in Crimea. It's not entirely bloodless, but it's

00:36:43.280 --> 00:36:48.739
at least quick, is my understanding. Yeah, there's

00:36:48.739 --> 00:36:50.059
not a lot that could have been done about it.

00:36:51.019 --> 00:36:59.360
Yeah. Kind of like, well, this is ours now. Yeah.

00:37:00.460 --> 00:37:08.690
That's it. What is weird is that... How do you

00:37:08.690 --> 00:37:11.269
pronounce it? Is it Zelensky? Zelensky, yep.

00:37:12.010 --> 00:37:18.889
Zelensky. He came to power with a huge... Like,

00:37:18.889 --> 00:37:21.690
he was voted in, again, massively. But he came

00:37:21.690 --> 00:37:23.889
under one of his campaign promises, was peace.

00:37:26.050 --> 00:37:31.639
And yet somehow during his reign... not his reign

00:37:31.639 --> 00:37:37.260
somehow through that Russia for some reason decided

00:37:37.260 --> 00:37:44.380
that he wasn't going to stick to his guns and

00:37:44.380 --> 00:37:48.659
there just seems to be a breakdown like Zelensky

00:37:48.659 --> 00:37:53.980
has now said on multiple occasions that he doesn't

00:37:53.980 --> 00:37:59.639
trust President Putin to honour any agreement

00:37:59.639 --> 00:38:03.860
that they make which kind of makes peace accords

00:38:03.860 --> 00:38:08.360
like if neither side trusts each other at all

00:38:08.360 --> 00:38:12.559
there's no kind of way for a peace accord to

00:38:12.559 --> 00:38:16.820
be to be found i mean i understand when dealing

00:38:16.820 --> 00:38:23.119
with putin i understand the anxiety given how

00:38:23.119 --> 00:38:31.159
paranoid putin if Can't trust you. Can't trust

00:38:31.159 --> 00:38:36.800
him. There's never going to be that. That piece.

00:38:39.900 --> 00:38:43.500
Yeah, that's it. Because it's built on respect

00:38:43.500 --> 00:38:56.659
and Putin is constantly older. Aye. What I do

00:38:56.659 --> 00:39:00.280
find Interesting. What I find kind of ridiculous

00:39:00.280 --> 00:39:04.840
is that the two sides are at this stalemate.

00:39:05.840 --> 00:39:09.980
At the beginning of the war, sorry, after Crimea,

00:39:10.239 --> 00:39:14.820
it's then only, it's eight years, and then Russia

00:39:14.820 --> 00:39:20.840
invades Ukraine. And I don't know about you,

00:39:20.880 --> 00:39:23.420
but I remember hearing so many ridiculous stories.

00:39:24.139 --> 00:39:26.460
About, like, are all the Russian tanks breaking

00:39:26.460 --> 00:39:30.699
down or them running out of petrol? Yeah. Or...

00:39:30.699 --> 00:39:35.320
You know, I basically hear about the initial

00:39:35.320 --> 00:39:40.960
invasion being pretty much a disaster. A flop.

00:39:42.280 --> 00:39:48.159
Complete flop. And yet, after an embarrassment

00:39:48.159 --> 00:39:53.639
like that, the war's still going on. and then

00:39:53.639 --> 00:39:55.739
months later russians have taken more ground

00:39:55.739 --> 00:39:58.380
and then they've taken more ground and then there's

00:39:58.380 --> 00:40:03.860
this that and the other and then we're um we're

00:40:03.860 --> 00:40:06.260
sending all of our supplies to ukraine and we're

00:40:06.260 --> 00:40:11.820
offering um ukrainians like um special because

00:40:11.820 --> 00:40:13.760
they're because they're fluent fleeing well to

00:40:13.760 --> 00:40:16.500
be fair many refugees are fleeing war zones but

00:40:16.500 --> 00:40:18.760
because of the media attention on this one and

00:40:18.760 --> 00:40:23.989
because i don't know because of the the strength

00:40:23.989 --> 00:40:28.289
of the narrative that it's just russian expansionism

00:40:28.289 --> 00:40:33.389
um and it is that to a point but it's also the

00:40:33.389 --> 00:40:35.710
policies and stuff that with that have been put

00:40:35.710 --> 00:40:38.530
in place on them again i don't think it's a clear

00:40:38.530 --> 00:40:42.349
-cut thing one way or the other but i i don't

00:40:42.349 --> 00:40:44.730
think the actually you know what that's another

00:40:44.730 --> 00:40:48.949
question do you feel the no that's going off

00:40:48.949 --> 00:40:50.750
top right okay i'll bring back a question in

00:40:50.750 --> 00:40:56.300
a second Okay, so what really surprises me is

00:40:56.300 --> 00:41:00.739
that the war is still ongoing. And that... I'm

00:41:00.739 --> 00:41:03.260
going to get on my soapbox a little bit. Yeah,

00:41:03.260 --> 00:41:05.079
by all means. I'm going to get on my soapbox

00:41:05.079 --> 00:41:08.760
a little bit because people quite often look

00:41:08.760 --> 00:41:18.920
at... They go... Why... A war... Look at a fight

00:41:18.920 --> 00:41:21.809
in the playground, right? basically you punch

00:41:21.809 --> 00:41:28.130
him he punches you it hurts you go ow and that's

00:41:28.130 --> 00:41:35.889
the end right um like a war is a like a big fight

00:41:35.889 --> 00:41:38.989
in a playground right you'd expect so you drop

00:41:38.989 --> 00:41:41.389
a few bombs they drop a few bombs you shoot a

00:41:41.389 --> 00:41:44.369
few people and then somebody goes ow that really

00:41:44.369 --> 00:41:48.699
hurts please stop and that's the end of it Apart

00:41:48.699 --> 00:41:52.239
from the fact that the longer a war goes on for,

00:41:52.400 --> 00:41:59.539
the more money it makes. The more time that war

00:41:59.539 --> 00:42:02.639
goes on for, the more arms are needed, the more

00:42:02.639 --> 00:42:05.699
vehicles are needed, the more bombs are needed,

00:42:05.760 --> 00:42:09.880
the more bullets are needed, etc. And it is a

00:42:09.880 --> 00:42:16.019
massive money -making enterprise. So, when you

00:42:16.019 --> 00:42:20.480
know that There are literally governments around

00:42:20.480 --> 00:42:23.659
the world that are funded by organisations that

00:42:23.659 --> 00:42:30.559
make money from war. They're going to want wars

00:42:30.559 --> 00:42:35.119
to continue as long a period as possible in order

00:42:35.119 --> 00:42:39.539
to maximise that profit margin, maximise the

00:42:39.539 --> 00:42:44.039
funding that they get. That's the really sickening

00:42:44.039 --> 00:42:47.179
thing about war that most people... just overlook

00:42:47.179 --> 00:42:51.019
with considering why is a war going on for so

00:42:51.019 --> 00:42:54.059
long because it makes a lot of people a lot of

00:42:54.059 --> 00:42:59.800
money that's why but it makes a lot of i'd say

00:42:59.800 --> 00:43:03.239
more people die than what than people who are

00:43:03.239 --> 00:43:06.119
made rich in war like honestly enough and i realize

00:43:06.119 --> 00:43:08.900
a lot of money has been sent to ukraine yeah

00:43:08.900 --> 00:43:12.380
absolutely honestly though like that's irrelevant

00:43:13.809 --> 00:43:22.530
to the people who make the money. There are 8

00:43:22.530 --> 00:43:28.809
billion people in this. And the people that make

00:43:28.809 --> 00:43:33.050
the money from war are a very, very, very small

00:43:33.050 --> 00:43:40.550
handful of poor money. And all of those lives

00:43:40.550 --> 00:43:47.679
are worth. And that's not me saying I don't care.

00:43:48.159 --> 00:43:52.539
I'm saying that's their attitude. I do not want

00:43:52.539 --> 00:43:57.360
to be misquoted. OK, like, fine. What I what

00:43:57.360 --> 00:44:00.280
I don't understand is fine. So you talk about

00:44:00.280 --> 00:44:07.500
like the industrial. What's it called? Military

00:44:07.500 --> 00:44:11.039
industrial industrial complex. Yeah, the industrial

00:44:11.039 --> 00:44:13.780
military complex. Yeah, making money from this

00:44:13.780 --> 00:44:16.500
conflict. But it's the industrial military complex

00:44:16.500 --> 00:44:20.280
of other countries. Yeah. Like... It's not countries.

00:44:20.360 --> 00:44:22.800
It's not countries. It's companies. Corporate

00:44:22.800 --> 00:44:26.079
of companies. Yeah, yeah. But how... Okay, but...

00:44:26.079 --> 00:44:34.099
Russia... Okay, so... Russia's a powerful nature,

00:44:34.179 --> 00:44:37.579
but I don't think... Is it in... where where

00:44:37.579 --> 00:44:39.440
are they top you know i'm just going to type

00:44:39.440 --> 00:44:57.119
in top 10 gdpr no that's not okay but you know

00:44:57.119 --> 00:45:47.409
it's gross annual it's not gdpr cars capital

00:45:47.409 --> 00:45:53.489
according to the russia's 47th yeah and total

00:45:53.489 --> 00:46:06.159
wealth total wealth russia's 18th okay so Okay,

00:46:06.219 --> 00:46:09.780
so considering that, and considering that...

00:46:09.780 --> 00:46:21.380
Russia isn't Nazi Germany, but I'm going on the...

00:46:21.380 --> 00:46:32.019
It's the last big... No. Okay, it's the last

00:46:32.019 --> 00:46:38.019
massive... conflict between two large -scale

00:46:38.019 --> 00:46:45.300
factions within um within western europe i now

00:46:45.300 --> 00:46:47.159
realize it's eastern europe and i realize a lot

00:46:47.159 --> 00:46:50.219
of other things have gone on but from my own

00:46:50.219 --> 00:46:55.800
ignorant mind comparing it to world war ii that

00:46:55.800 --> 00:47:01.539
that war in that war hitler built up the uh the

00:47:01.539 --> 00:47:06.940
german The German war machine and made the country

00:47:06.940 --> 00:47:12.780
incredibly industrial and warlike. And yet still,

00:47:12.840 --> 00:47:16.940
that war machine would have collapsed without

00:47:16.940 --> 00:47:25.840
helps of certain banks back in 1943. Yeah. Four

00:47:25.840 --> 00:47:29.539
years after it started. What I'm wondering is...

00:47:31.880 --> 00:47:38.159
What I'm wondering is, since Russia is... Sorry,

00:47:38.219 --> 00:47:43.760
what was it GDPR -wise? Was it 47th? 47th. And

00:47:43.760 --> 00:47:48.599
yet, despite its huge landmass, huge landmass,

00:47:48.820 --> 00:47:58.000
is 18th in the total wealth, how are these two

00:47:58.000 --> 00:48:06.050
countries... Because companies make money, yeah?

00:48:06.309 --> 00:48:11.230
Yeah. But the governments themselves don't. They

00:48:11.230 --> 00:48:16.570
spend money. They spend money. And I realise

00:48:16.570 --> 00:48:20.769
that we have dropped... We've sent money to Ukraine.

00:48:20.789 --> 00:48:25.510
We've all sent money to Ukraine in England. But

00:48:25.510 --> 00:48:32.260
how are both sides... still going at this point

00:48:32.260 --> 00:48:36.599
you know considering that it's not a worldwide

00:48:36.599 --> 00:48:44.000
conflict you know like you can in order for countries

00:48:44.000 --> 00:48:48.360
to become fast as neutral they have to provide

00:48:48.360 --> 00:48:54.940
um equal um support to both sides of the war

00:49:05.840 --> 00:49:11.800
okay all right well it it frustrates uh it frustrates

00:49:11.800 --> 00:49:15.940
me that it's still it's still going on and that

00:49:15.940 --> 00:49:22.199
with you know like what what prompted me to choose

00:49:22.199 --> 00:49:24.820
this as a topic and looking at the background

00:49:24.820 --> 00:49:27.500
of this topic was first off my own ignorance

00:49:27.500 --> 00:49:29.840
second off that i hadn't heard much about it

00:49:29.840 --> 00:49:32.780
in the news and third off I chose this topic

00:49:32.780 --> 00:49:36.099
during the most recent peace talks a couple of

00:49:36.099 --> 00:49:40.480
weeks ago at this point, when I was hoping that

00:49:40.480 --> 00:49:42.340
the war was coming to an end and we could do

00:49:42.340 --> 00:49:45.619
a nice overview of it. Was that during a time

00:49:45.619 --> 00:49:51.420
when Trump actively verbally placed himself?

00:49:52.440 --> 00:49:59.659
Are you going to fall over if I walk away? No,

00:50:00.039 --> 00:50:02.340
it was short, but it was a couple of weeks after

00:50:02.340 --> 00:50:08.420
that. So it was a similar time. I don't think

00:50:08.420 --> 00:50:12.800
Trump necessarily was involved. It was Zelensky

00:50:12.800 --> 00:50:20.219
and Putin possibly going to the table to talk

00:50:20.219 --> 00:50:24.480
about peace. And there was supposed to be a ceasefire

00:50:24.480 --> 00:50:31.929
over three days. Both sides have reported that

00:50:31.929 --> 00:50:35.849
the other has broken that ceasefire dozens upon

00:50:35.849 --> 00:50:39.550
dozens of times. So it looks like the whole thing

00:50:39.550 --> 00:50:42.809
was a bit of a farce, but when I heard peace

00:50:42.809 --> 00:50:48.909
talks were happening, literally, my heart kind

00:50:48.909 --> 00:50:58.110
of raised. So, although I don't... I don't necessarily

00:50:58.110 --> 00:51:02.230
see the Ukraine war as solely Russian expansion.

00:51:03.630 --> 00:51:06.230
What's your views on it? Like, do you see it...

00:51:06.230 --> 00:51:10.449
How much do you think, from the research that

00:51:10.449 --> 00:51:13.690
you've done into Russians' narrative of them

00:51:13.690 --> 00:51:18.170
being backed into a corner and wanting to demilitarize

00:51:18.170 --> 00:51:23.380
Ukraine... How much do you feel the West is responsible?

00:51:23.659 --> 00:51:27.840
How much do you feel Russia is responsible? And

00:51:27.840 --> 00:51:30.019
do you think there's an end in sight? Well, I

00:51:30.019 --> 00:51:38.679
didn't know until America played cards that way.

00:51:40.739 --> 00:51:45.780
I don't know, but I think that there is a power

00:51:45.780 --> 00:51:52.730
in America building bases for other people. right

00:51:52.730 --> 00:52:01.329
on your um threatened or threat pause acromo

00:52:01.329 --> 00:52:12.190
option um would mean box would start turning

00:52:12.190 --> 00:52:23.320
action um though i don't agree with the asian

00:52:23.320 --> 00:52:28.840
of you i can understand why it happened why it

00:52:28.840 --> 00:52:32.480
has come about both from a historical element

00:52:32.480 --> 00:52:37.619
um the fact that it like people in you to get

00:52:37.619 --> 00:52:45.820
hung up on oracle ties um and um name ownership

00:52:45.820 --> 00:52:51.039
things that because they've they've like the

00:52:51.039 --> 00:52:54.559
fact that They were visitors to that nation.

00:52:55.619 --> 00:53:09.679
I think the provocation was there. My reaction

00:53:09.679 --> 00:53:16.239
came on long enough. Oh, absolutely. I don't

00:53:16.239 --> 00:53:38.599
think... Russian listeners, Russian army, there's

00:53:38.599 --> 00:53:43.480
never, I mean, I'm a personal advocate for armies

00:53:43.480 --> 00:53:47.719
to be abolished because you only need an army

00:53:47.719 --> 00:53:50.659
because somebody else, yeah, you only need an

00:53:50.659 --> 00:53:53.039
army because somebody else has an army and this

00:53:53.039 --> 00:53:55.159
is the 21st century for Christ's sake, please.

00:53:56.139 --> 00:54:04.320
Just sit down and talk through problems. And

00:54:04.320 --> 00:54:11.300
even if you don't agree, compromise. Find a means

00:54:11.300 --> 00:54:17.699
to get past it. It shouldn't be worthy of...

00:54:17.699 --> 00:54:29.380
Yeah. That's a fair point. That's a fair point.

00:54:29.519 --> 00:54:36.659
And to be fair, although I... I can understand

00:54:36.659 --> 00:54:41.219
people who have respect for military backgrounds,

00:54:42.659 --> 00:54:45.099
military traditions, military pride, but that

00:54:45.099 --> 00:54:49.099
should be secondary to human life. Like, absolutely.

00:54:50.559 --> 00:54:56.139
Like, it just... You can also argue about the

00:54:56.139 --> 00:55:01.360
needs for certain... For the ability to... For

00:55:01.360 --> 00:55:07.940
the ability to fight. But at the same time, there's

00:55:07.940 --> 00:55:11.960
got to be peaceable ways of dealing with situations.

00:55:12.179 --> 00:55:18.340
And I don't think anyone can take endlessly,

00:55:18.639 --> 00:55:23.789
you know, without realising that they're... that

00:55:23.789 --> 00:55:26.070
they're doing something wrong. Like, I don't

00:55:26.070 --> 00:55:28.949
believe that all people are necessarily inherently

00:55:28.949 --> 00:55:33.090
good, but I also don't think that anybody is

00:55:33.090 --> 00:55:44.929
pure evil. You know? And do what, right? If Russia

00:55:44.929 --> 00:55:51.369
can go home, then I can... All got that, mate.

00:55:53.289 --> 00:55:55.090
Not even that, mate. They're just someone who

00:55:55.090 --> 00:55:58.789
hangs around with you. They're there, and they're

00:55:58.789 --> 00:56:02.750
annoying as hell, and stupid things, question

00:56:02.750 --> 00:56:09.530
one. Yeah. If somebody were to start on that

00:56:09.530 --> 00:56:17.469
person, still defend them, it might be a dick.

00:56:19.849 --> 00:56:26.199
They're yours, and... but you look after one

00:56:26.199 --> 00:56:31.400
of you and get to the point where you accept

00:56:31.400 --> 00:56:34.480
the fact that people are different and you're

00:56:34.480 --> 00:56:37.219
not always going to want to abandon them but

00:56:37.219 --> 00:56:40.900
you are going to respect the fact that they are

00:56:40.900 --> 00:56:59.150
their own entity get past i don't know i don't

00:56:59.150 --> 00:57:07.190
know maybe um definitely think conflict is better

00:57:07.190 --> 00:57:14.570
settled with words that's easy to get easy thing

00:57:14.570 --> 00:57:21.150
to get behind do you think that the um How long

00:57:21.150 --> 00:57:23.309
do you think that this particular conflict will

00:57:23.309 --> 00:57:25.889
continue going on for? Do you think we've got,

00:57:25.969 --> 00:57:30.409
you know, do you think it's months, years? I

00:57:30.409 --> 00:57:38.309
think there are a few more surprises. Yeah. Okay.

00:57:39.190 --> 00:57:44.190
All right. Well, thank you for listening, everybody.

00:57:45.130 --> 00:57:50.139
I've gone through a fair amount of... of material

00:57:50.139 --> 00:57:53.219
i realize this one's been a little bit uh more

00:57:53.219 --> 00:57:56.260
haphazard but it's uh hopefully you've gotten

00:57:56.260 --> 00:58:02.760
a a basic uh build up or the basic timeline um

00:58:02.760 --> 00:58:08.659
towards uh the invasion uh the russian uh invasion

00:58:08.659 --> 00:58:15.260
of ukraine in uh 2022 and will uh if when the

00:58:15.260 --> 00:58:18.440
if the war ends when we're still doing this podcast.

00:58:18.539 --> 00:58:20.179
I'm very much hoping it does. We'll definitely

00:58:20.179 --> 00:58:25.019
cover this again. Yeah, Nick, thank you very

00:58:25.019 --> 00:58:28.460
much for your time and for your chance. And we'll

00:58:28.460 --> 00:58:31.639
end it here for there. Everybody that has listened,

00:58:31.739 --> 00:58:34.159
take care. Bye -bye.
